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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Aftershock Duration of Induced Earthquakes

As the carbon sequestration community prepares to scale up the number and size of commercial operations, the need for tools and methods to assess and mitigate risks associated with these operations becomes increasingly important. One outstanding question is whether aftershocks of induced events decay quickly after injection operations cease or if aftershock activity persists for hundreds of years before returning to background levels more akin to tectonic events (Stein and Liu, 2009). Appropriate estimates of the aftershock duration impact several operational management decisions including mitigation strategies and post-injection monitoring for seismic activity. It is hypothesized that induced earthquake rates may diminish more quickly after injection is stopped, owing to higher stressing rates from injected fluids. Alternatively, it is plausible that only the first event in the sequence is induced by increased fluid overpressures, whereas subsequent events (e.g., aftershocks) respond to the stored tectonic stresses and static and dynamic stress changes due to the mainshock (Keranen et al., 2013). Further, if the aftershock duration can be linked to stressing rates due to injection, then it follows that operational strategies to reduce seismic hazard by reducing injection rates or volumes may be successful. However, if aftershocks of induced events are relieving stored tectonic stresses, then altering injection volumes may not alleviate ongoing seismic activity. Furthermore, knowledge of an aftershock duration could aid in the determination of an appropriate post-injection monitoring period for ongoing seismicity, which is a factor in overall operational costs. In this study, we model induced seismicity sequences in Oklahoma with a coupled Coulomb rate–state earthquake rate model (Dieterich, 1994; Kroll et al., 2017) to estimate aftershocks durations. Results for the current study indicate that elevated rates of aftershock activity following induced mainshocks return to background seismicity rates in less than five years, contrary to the tens to hundreds of years observed for tectonic aftershocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unsupervised Clustering of Microseismic Events and Focal Mechanism Analysis at the CO 2 Injection Site in Decatur, Illinois

Characterization of induced microseismicity at a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage site is critical for preserving reservoir integrity and mitigating seismic hazards. We apply a multilevel machine learning (ML) approach that combines the nonnegative matrix factorization and hidden Markov model to extract spectral representations of microseismic events and cluster them to identify seismic patterns at the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project. Unlike traditional waveform correlation methods, this approach leverages spectral characteristics of first arrivals to improve event classification and detect previously undetected planes of weakness. By integrating ML-based clustering with focal mechanism analysis, we resolve small-scale fault structures that are below the detection limits of conventional seismic imaging. Our findings reveal temporal bursts of microseismicity associated with brittle failure, providing insights into the spatio-temporal evolution of fault reactivation during CO 2 injection. This approach enhances seismic monitoring capabilities at CO 2 injection sites by improving fault characterization beyond the resolution of standard geophysical surveys.

Willis, Rachel Marie [Sandia National Laboratories↗
DOE OSTI2022

Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas

Oklahoma and Kansas experienced unprecedented seismic activity over the past decade due to earthquakes associated with unconventional hydrocarbon development. The modest natural seismicity and incomplete knowledge of the fault network in the region made it difficult to anticipate the locations of earthquakes with larger magnitudes (M w ≥ 4). Here, we show that monitoring of microearthquakes at regional scale using a pretrained neural phase picker and an earthquake relocation algorithm can illuminate unknown fault structures, and deliver information that can be synthesized for earthquake forecasting. We found that 80% of the larger earthquakes that occurred in the past decade could have been anticipated based on the spatial extent of the seismicity clusters that were formed before these earthquakes occurred. We also found that once a seismicity cluster with a length scale enough to host a larger earthquake was formed, there was a ~5% chance that it would host one or more larger earthquakes within a year. This probability is nearly an order of magnitude higher than one based on Gutenberg–Richter statistics and preceding seismicity. Applying our approach in practice can provide critical information on seismic hazards for risk management and regulatory decision making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Profiling the Quito basin (Ecuador) using seismic ambient noise

SUMMARY Quito, the capital of Ecuador, with more than 2.5 M inhabitants, is exposed to a high seismic hazard due to its proximity to the Pacific subduction zone and active crustal faults, both capable of generating significant earthquakes. Furthermore, the city is located in an intermontane piggy-back basin prone to seismic wave amplification. To understand the basin’s seismic response and characterize its geological structure, 20 broad and medium frequency band seismic stations were deployed in Quito’s urban area between May 2016 and July 2018 that continuously recorded ambient seismic noise. We first compute horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios to determine the resonant frequency distribution in the entire basin. Secondly, we cross-correlate seismic stations operating simultaneously to retrieve interstations surface-wave Green’s functions in the frequency range of 0.1–2 Hz. We find that Love waves travelling in the basin’s longitudinal direction (NNE–SSW) show much clearer correlograms than those from Rayleigh waves. We then compute Love wave phase-velocity dispersion curves and invert them in conjunction with the HVSR curves to obtain shear-wave velocity profiles throughout the city. The inversions highlight a clear difference in the basin’s structure between its northern and southern parts. In the centre and northern areas, the estimated basin depth and mean shear-wave velocity are about 200 m and 1800 ms−1, respectively, showing resonance frequency values between 0.6 and 0.7 Hz. On the contrary, the basement’s depth and shear-wave velocity in the southern part are about 900 m and 2500 ms−1, having a low resonance frequency value of around 0.3 Hz. This difference in structure between the centre-north and the south of the basin explains the spatial distribution of low-frequency seismic amplifications observed during the Mw 7.8 Pedernales earthquake in April 2016 in Quito.

Pacheco, D. (ORCID:0000000282355096)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Potential Seismicity Along Basement Faults Induced by Geological Carbon Sequestration

Large-scale CO 2 sequestration into geological formations has been suggested to reduce CO 2 emissions from industrial activities. However, much like enhanced geothermal stimulation and wastewater injection, CO 2 sequestration has a potential to induce earthquake along weak faults, which can be considered a negative impact on safety and public opinion. This research shows the physical mechanisms of potential seismic hazards along basement faults driven by CO 2 sequestration under variation in geological and operational constraints. Specifically we compare the poroelastic behaviors between multiphase flow and single-phase flow cases, highlighting specific needs of evaluating induced seismicity associated with CO 2 sequestration. In contrast to single-phase injection scenario, slower migration of the CO 2 plume than pressure pulse may delay accumulation of pressure and stress along basement faults that may not be mitigated immediately by shut-in of injection. The impact of multiphase flow system, therefore, needs to be considered for proper monitoring and mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards Automated/Semiautomated Extraction of Faults from Lidar Data

The Pajarito fault system is a complex zone of deformation and a seismically active region nestled within the Rio Grande rift in north-central New Mexico. Numerous laterally discontinuous faults and associated folds and fractures interact in a manner that has important implications for seismic hazards and risk mitigation. Previous efforts have established a foundation for the location of lineaments and structures in the Pajarito fault system; however, ensuring the completeness of the current lineament mapping is required for identifying areas for field validation, evaluating the potential for future seismic activity, and better understanding fault interaction. Assistance with this fault-mapping task via automated or semiautomated techniques as applied to lidar data over a large area of interest is highly desirable. A proof-of-concept processing flow which transforms lidar point-cloud data into a raster of surficial fault candidates is described and illustrated herein. We report these initial results hold great promise toward achieving our ultimate goal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Widespread deep seismicity in the Delaware Basin, Texas, is mainly driven by shallow wastewater injection

Significance The Delaware Basin, western Texas, has experienced a surge in the number of earthquakes. We investigate basin-wide earthquake, hydrogeologic, industrial, and geodetic data spanning 1993–2020 to identify the reasons for the increase. We use these data and models to quantify the stress changes from wastewater injection and hydrocarbon extraction. We demonstrate that the basin-wide seismicity is dominated by the stresses caused by shallow injection that are transmitted vertically by deforming the underlying crust. We analyze both injection and production data to understand how subsurface properties control earthquake locations and timings. We suggest that injecting wastewater into porous formations will minimize seismic hazard. We establish a framework explaining why earthquakes sometimes occur and sometimes do not occur within human activity-impacted areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

SMART Deliverable 6.1.2a: Application of the ORION tool to the IBDP Carbon Storage Site

Forecasting and managing potential induced seismic activity is one of the challenges facing commercialscale geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), as well as other geologic energy extraction and byproduct disposal technologies. Historically, the process to develop robust, science-based forecasts of induced seismicity has required an integrated effort from experts in seismology, geomechanics, and reservoir engineering to manage data, develop and evaluate models of subsurface processes, and to calibrate and interpret the results from a range of models to understand site behavior relative to prescribed standards and in the context of uncertainty in geologic characterization data, forecasting models, and operational scenario uncertainty. The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) toolkit is an open-source, observation-based forecasting toolkit that is being co-developed by two U.S. DOE-funded initiatives: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) and the Scienceinformed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. ORION is designed to provide functionality to support decision making about seismic hazard analysis and risk management for GCS stakeholders ranging from the public to site operators to expert seismologists. The tool, which is written as open-source code in the Python programming language, is composed of a desktop graphical user interface (GUI) and an underlying forecasting engine. The forecasting engine uses available reservoir properties, well and fluid injection scenario details, and observed seismic catalog data as inputs to produce a set of temporal and spatio-temporal seismic forecasts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hayward Fault Creep From Coda Wave Interferometry

Understanding creep is essential for assessing seismic hazards along the creeping Hayward Fault, which threatens the San Francisco area. Current 1-D monitoring methods, like creepmeters and theodolites, provide limited measurements with low spatial resolution. InSAR offers higher 2-D spatial sampling but lower temporal resolution. We introduce a novel method using coda wave interferometry (CWI) to monitor creep in 2-D with high resolution. By calculating changes in ambient seismic noise travel times, we relate these measurements to creep offsets, bridging the gap between existing methods. Applied to seismic data from 2021 around the Hayward Fault, our CWI-derived offsets aligned with creepmeter measurements, revealing continuous and episodic creep. A 2-D regionalization identified a spatial boundary between these regimes, corroborating previous findings. This approach could enhance seismic monitoring and improve understanding of fault mechanics and earthquake risks.

Luckie, Thomas William [Sandia National Laboratori↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling-Based Assessment of Deep Seismic Potential Induced by Geologic Carbon Storage

Induced seismicity is an inherent risk associated with geologic carbon storage (GCS) in deep rock formations that could contain undetected faults prone to failure. Modeling-based risk assessment has been implemented to quantify the potential of injection-induced seismicity, but typically simplified multiscale geologic features or neglected multiphysics coupled mechanisms because of the uncertainty in field data and computational cost of field-scale simulations, which may limit the reliable prediction of seismic hazard caused by industrial-scale CO 2 storage. The degree of lateral continuity of the stratigraphic interbedding below the reservoir and depth-dependent fault permeability can enhance or inhibit pore-pressure diffusion and corresponding poroelastic stressing along a basement fault. In conclusion, this study presents a rigorous modeling scheme with optimal geological and operational parameters needed to be considered in seismic monitoring and mitigation strategies for safe GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Uncertainty in Moment Estimation for Small Earthquakes in Southern Nevada Using the Coda Envelope Method

Compiling source parameter estimates for small earthquakes is important both for our understanding of earthquake physics and for accurately assessing earthquake hazard. Reliable source parameter estimates are difficult to achieve for small earthquakes, in part due to our inability to accurately model the relevant physical processes at high frequencies. The coda envelope methodology developed by Mayeda and Walter (1996) and Mayeda et al. (2003) can mitigate this concern and estimate the moment of small earthquakes by determining the parameters that control the shape of the S-wave coda envelope while eliminating path effects by minimizing the scatter between seismic stations. Here, we use an open-source implementation of this technique called the Coda Calibration Tool (CCT; Barno, 2017) to calculate CCT-based moment magnitude estimates of small earthquakes (M L 0–3) in the Rock Valley, Nevada, region within the Nevada National Security Site. The Rock Valley data set is of particular interest because it allows us to explore the changes in uncertainties of the coda calibration method with earthquake size and depth. We found that a consistent linear relationship exists between the local magnitude M L and our coda-derived M w estimates for earthquakes as small as M L 0–3, but that current CCT workflows do not accurately characterize very shallow events. We also demonstrate that the epistemic uncertainty in the apparent stress value assumed by the CCT algorithm can influence magnitude estimates of small earthquakes. In conclusion, these results provide valuable insight into the seismicity of this region, and inform future analysis and modeling efforts for nuclear monitoring and seismic hazard.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The age and potential causes of the giant Green Lake Landslide, Fiordland, New Zealand

Abstract Landslide deposits preserved in the geological record afford opportunities to better inform hillslope and seismic hazard and risk models, particularly in regions where observational records are short. In the Southern Alps of New Zealand, small coseismic landslides are frequent, but the geological record preserves several instances of more substantial (> 1 km 3 ) but infrequent mass failures. With an estimated volume of 27 km 3 , the giant Green Lake Landslide represents one of the largest subaerial landslides on Earth. Previous work has suggested this deep-seated mass movement was most likely triggered by high-intensity seismic shaking, but that local structural weakness and/or glacial debuttressing may help to explain the anomalously large failure volume. Resolving the potential contribution of the latter is important given predictions concerning alpine deglaciation in the coming decades to centuries. Key to resolution are secure chronologies of landslide emplacement and past glacier change. Here we present in situ cosmogenic 10 Be exposure ages from the Green Lake Landslide that suggest an emplacement age of 15.5 ± 0.7 ka. Recent work shows that glacial retreat in the region was underway by 19 ka, indicating that the Green Lake Landslide was emplaced 3–4 kyr after the onset of glacier retreat. Given the geometry of the former confining valley glacier, we expect that the deglaciation-landslide age gap is closer to the upper end of this estimate. If correct, this conclusion places greater weight on the roles of local geological structure and/or a great earthquake as factors contributing to the exceptionally large volume of this event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway

Significant efforts are underway to develop and implement a risk-informed performance-based licensing framework for advanced reactors built on the establishment of an affirmative safety case. Such approaches offer the benefits of increased flexibility regarding key design and licensing decisions based on a detailed assessment and understanding of plant risk. These methods include the comprehensive analysis of scenarios that have historically been addressed through conservative and deterministic licensing analysis approaches, such as the evaluation of event sequences at frequencies of occurrence beyond the design basis. While the detailed analysis of low frequency events provides insights that can help justify alternative treatments to past conservatism, the findings are dependent on the quality and confidence associated with the analyses. The assessment of external hazards presents a unique challenge, as their potential frequency of occurrence, especially of large magnitude events, is inherently uncertain given the long return periods in question. The current project seeks to further explore the regulatory treatment of low frequency external events as part of a risk-informed performance-based framework. The goals are to identify the benefits and challenges of such approaches for advanced reactor vendors and to aid in the development of consistent and appropriate methodologies. As part of this effort, the current report summarizes initial project findings, with a focus on the evaluation of the seismic hazard. This includes an exploration of the implementation of a risk-informed performance-based approach through an example analysis. Based on the identified challenges associated with the probabilistic treatment of low frequency event sequences, additional performance-based methods were explored as complementary tools for demonstrating regulatory compliance. The report highlights key challenges and opportunities associated with the methods and outlines recommendations and future activities to assist with their implementation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Analysis of the 2020 Central Idaho Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence

In an effort to inform the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee for the Idaho National Laboratory, we provide an improved aftershock catalog related to the March 31, 2020, Mw6.5 Stanley, Idaho earthquake from picks related to a temporary network of two real-time and 15 non-telemetered seismometers within the epicentral area. From the permanent and temporary (XP) real-time network, the USGS cataloged 1,946 aftershocks between April 1, 2020 and October 31, 2020. To improve aftershock location and magnitudes, we manually picked arrival times of P and S waves from off-line stations in the XP temporary network, generated a new crustal velocity model, and independently relocated each event using the HypoDD double-difference earthquake algorithm. We created our new velocity model from existing broadband and active source seismic campaign data that were acquired near the epicentral region prior to the 2020 earthquake. We compare arrival time differences, epicentral locations and depths between aftershocks recorded with the two catalogs. We find the addition of local stations provides tighter aftershock clustering that suggests an improved aftershock locations. To detect lower magnitude events, we employed deep learning. Our method solves common problems associated with detecting many events that have a low signal-to-noise ratio. From the machine learning database, we detected more than 74,000 aftershocks. Based on the number of identified earthquakes and Gutenberg-Richter relationships derived from the USGS catalog, we estimate that we have reduced the completion magnitude for the Stanley earthquake sequence to below M1 using this machine learning approach. We located each aftershock with our new velocity model. Our new velocity model and picks suggests aftershocks occurred mostly at shallower depths than assessed in the USGS catalog. These aftershocks align along two linear trends that suggest the activation of two unnamed primary faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Learning earthquake ground motions via conditional generative modeling

Predicting high-fidelity ground motions for future earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and infrastructure resilience. Conventional empirical simulations suffer from sparse sensor distribution and geographically localized earthquake locations, while physics-based methods are computationally intensive and require accurate representations of Earth structures and earthquake sources. We propose an artificial intelligence (AI) spectrogram generator, Conditional Generative Modeling for Ground Motion (CGM-GM). CGM-GM leverages earthquake magnitudes and geographic coordinates of earthquakes and sensors as inputs, when postprocessed with phase information, capturing spatially continuous Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) as well as properties such as P and S arrivals, and waveform durations, without explicit physics constraints. This is achieved through a probabilistic autoencoder that extracts latent distributions in the time-frequency domain and variational sequential models for prior and posterior distributions. We evaluate the performance of CGM-GM using small-magnitude earthquake records from the San Francisco Bay Area, a region with high seismic risks. Here, we report that CGM-GM demonstrates potential for complementing physics-based simulations and non-ergodic empirical ground motion models, as well as shows promise in seismology and beyond.

geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Seismic Risk for CO2 Geologic Storage: Comparative Analysis of the Delaware Basin and Basin and Range Province Projects

ABSTRACT: Effective management of induced seismicity is critical for safe and sustainable CO2 storage. This study evaluates fault slippage risks in the Delaware Basin (Texas) and Basin and Range Province (Utah), integrating geological, operational, and geomechanical parameters to assess fault stability and seismic hazard mitigation. In the Delaware Basin, two sites were analyzed under an injection rate of 20,000 bbl/day over 25 years. One site showed low fault slip risk, while the other exhibited higher reactivation potential due to proximity to critically stressed faults. Sensitivity analysis revealed that increased pore pressure significantly heightened slip potential, highlighting the necessity of precise pressure control and real-time monitoring. In the Basin and Range Province, fault stability was evaluated at Neck of the Desert, Escalante Desert, Parowan, and Beaver sites under injection rates of 8,750 bbl/day per site over 30 years. Minimal fault slip risk was observed at Neck of the Desert and Escalante Desert sites, whereas Parowan and Beaver sites exhibited elevated slip potential due to semi-critically stressed faults sensitive to modest pore pressure increases. The findings demonstrate that fault slippage analysis, combined with sensitivity analysis of pore pressure and friction coefficients, is essential for understanding seismic risks. Continuous monitoring, adaptive injection management, and rigorous geomechanical analysis are key strategies for minimizing induced seismicity in CO2 sequestration projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Regional-Scale 3D Ground-Motion Simulations of M w 7 Earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, Northern California Resolving Frequencies 0–10 Hz and Including Site-Response Corrections

Large earthquake ground-motion simulations in 3D Earth models provide constraints on site-specific shaking intensities but have suffered from limited frequency resolution and ignored site response in soft soils. In this work we report new regional-scale 3D simulations for moment magnitude 7.0 scenario earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, northern California with SW4. Simulations resolved significantly broader band frequencies (0–10 Hz) than previous studies and represent the highest resolution simulations for any such earthquake to date. Seismic waves were excited by a kinematic rupture following Graves and Pitarka (2016) and obeyed wave propagation in a 3D Earth model with topography from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assuming a minimum shear wavespeed, VSmin, of 500 m/s. We corrected motions for linear and nonlinear site response for the shear wavespeed, VS, from the USGS 3D model, using a recently developed ground-motion model (GMM) for Fourier amplitude spectra . At soft soil locations subjected to strong shaking, the site-corrected intensities reflect the competing effects of linear amplification by low V S material, reduction of stiffness during nonlinear deformation, and damping of high frequencies. Sites with near-surface V S of 500 m/s or greater require no linear site correction but can experience amplitude reduction due to nonlinear response. Averaged over all sites, we obtained reasonable agreement with empirical ergodic median GMMs currently used for seismic hazard and design ground motions (epsilon less than 1), with marked improvement at soft sedimentary sites. At specific locations, the simulated shaking intensities show systematic differences from the GMMs that reveal path and site effects not captured in these ergodic models. Results suggest how next generation regional-scale earthquake simulations can provide higher spatial and frequency resolution while including effects of soft soils that are commonly ignored in scenario earthquake ground-motion simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗