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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Advanced Performance Metrics and their Application to the Sensitivity Analysis for Model Validation and Calibration

High-quality generator dynamic models are critical to reliable and accurate power systems studies and planning. With the availability of PMUs, measurement-based approach for model validation has gained significant prominence. In this approach, the quality of a model is analyzed by visually comparing measured generator response with the model-based simulated response for large system disturbances. This paper proposes a new set of performance metrics to assess the model validation results to facilitate automation of the model validation process. In the proposed methodology, first, the slow governor response and comparatively faster oscillatory response are separated, and then a separate set of performance metrics is calculated for each of these two components. These proposed metrics quantify the mismatch between the actual and model-based response in a comprehensive manner without missing any information enabling automation of the process. Furthermore, in this paper, we are also proposing that the sensitivity analysis for model calibration be performed with respect to the proposed metrics for the systematic identification of key parameters. In this work, results obtained using both simulated and real-world case-studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed performance metrics for model validation and their application to the sensitivity analysis for model calibration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 Presentation: "Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of a Generation IV Pebble Bed Reactor Using MELCOR 2.2"

Accompanying the advancement of reactor technologies is the need for computational modeling and simulation to predict their behavior under normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. New Generation IV reactor designs which employ non-conventional fuel have a particular need for modeling the behavior and release of radionuclides and other material from the fuel. In this work, MELCOR version 2.2, a system-level safety and accident scenario code developed by Sandia National Laboratories, was used to model a 200-MWth pebble bed modular reactor and calculate the inventories of circulating and deposited graphite, metal dust, and elemental components released from the fuel elements. A base case modeling the reactor under standard operating conditions was calculated using MELCOR and the inventories were extrapolated to 30 years of operation time using a logarithmic regression fit. A sensitivity analysis was also performed in which several key parameters for the base case model were modified to explore the effect of these changes on the inventories calculated by MELCOR. A set of transient scenario simulations for a depressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC) accident were also performed. The results of the sensitivity analysis and transient simulations are reported and discussed in relation to the modeling techniques used for this study.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local and Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Reactive Transport Model Simulating Floodplain Redox Cycling

Reactive transport models (RTMs) are essential tools that simulate the coupling of advective, diffusive, and reactive processes in the subsurface, but their complexity makes them difficult to understand, develop and improve without accompanying statistical analyses. Although global sensitivity analysis (SA) can address these issues, the computational cost associated with most global SA techniques limits their use with RTMs. In this study, we apply distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA), a novel and computationally efficient method of global SA, to a floodplain-scale RTM and compare DGSA results to those from local SA. Our test case focuses on the impact of 17 uncertain environmental parameters on spatially and temporally variable redox conditions within a floodplain aquifer. The input parameters considered include flow and diffusion rates, geochemical reaction rates, and the spatial distribution of sediment facies. Sensitivity was evaluated for three distinct components of the model response, encompassing both multidimensional and categorical output. Parameter rankings differ between local SA and DGSA, due to nonlinear effects of individual parameters and interaction effects between parameters. DGSA results show that fluid residence time, which is controlled by aquifer permeability, generally exerts a stronger control on redox conditions than do geochemical reaction rates. Sensitivity indices also demonstrate that sulfate reduction is key for establishing and maintaining reducing conditions throughout the aquifer. Furthermore, these results provide insights into the key drivers of heterogeneous redox processes within floodplain aquifers, as well as the main sources of uncertainty when modeling complex subsurface systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Critical Parameter Identification of Fuel-Cell Models Using Sensitivity Analysis

Numerical modeling has been a vital tool in proton-exchange-membrane fuel-cell (PEMFC) analysis; however, the predictive capabilities of these models depend on the input physical parameters, several of which are either not experimentally measured or have large scatter in measured values. This article presents an uncertainty propagation-based sensitivity analysis to identify the model parameters that impact the model predictions most. A comprehensive 2-D membrane electrode assembly (MEA) model is used to perform local sensitivity analysis at multiple operating conditions, which encompass the range of environments and operating conditions a cell can encounter. While at lower humidities, cathode kinetics and membrane-ohmic-loss related parameters are crucial, gas transport and porous-media saturation behavior are more important at humidified conditions. Several of these findings are different from previous studies presented in literature. Identifying the crucial parameters helps focus future material and cell optimization studies as well as experimental studies to quantify these parameters with higher accuracy.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leaf-scale carbon assimilation simulated by the multi-assumption architecture & testbed for process sensitivity analysis

Raw and processed output from the Multi-Assumption Architecture & Testbed (MAAT, https://github.com/walkeranthonyp/MAAT, tag: v1.2.1_walker2020; Walker et al., 2018). The dataset contains leaf-scale carbon assimilation data from three MAAT simulations and their post-processing and plotting scripts. Simulation 1, labelled "FvC_4proc_proc," is a four-process, process sensitivity analysis (Dai et al., 2017) of carbon assimilation based on the Farquhar et al. (1980) photosynthesis model, and its variant proposed by Collatz et al. (1991). Simulation 2, labelled "FvC_4proc_salt," is a 14 parameter sensitivity analysis (Saltelli et al., 2010) of carbon assimilation based on the Farquhar and Collatz photosynthesis models. Simulation 3, labelled "FvC," is a factorial combination of the alternative process representations and parameter values presented in those original papers across a factorial combination of incident photosynthetically active radiation (50-2000 µmol m-2 s-1, in increments of 50) and atmospheric CO2 concentration (50-1500 µmol m-2 s-1, in increments of 50). Additional scripts/functions for post-processing and plotting are part of the MAAT repository. These data were generated to evaluate and compare the Farquhar and Collatz models of leaf-scale photosynthesis across a range of CO2 and incident light conditions. Analysis of results can be found in Walker et al. (2020). This dataset is comprised of R scripts to process data and produce figures; .RDS files, a binary format specific to R and read with the 'readRDS' function, to store raw MAAT output; R and bash scripts (.bs) that help to run a MAAT simulation, .XML files that are output from MAAT describing a run, and .csv files which contain the calculated sensitivity indexes published in Walker et al. (2020).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SOFE2023 Presentation: "Tritium Safety and Sensitivity Analysis of Tritium Extraction eXperiment (TEX) PbLi Loop Using MELCOR-TMAP"

The efficient extraction of tritium from the breeder blanket (BB) in a fusion reactor is vital for maintaining the tritium economy for a sustainable and self-sufficient fusion power plant. The vacuum permeator (VP) design is one of several promising technology platforms for extracting tritium from the BB with the advantages of being capable of operating continuously at high temperatures with the aim of achieving high tritium extraction efficiencies. The Tritium Extraction eXperiment (TEX), under construction at the Safety and Tritium Applied Research (STAR) Facility at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is designed to test the viability of VP technology by introducing atomic hydrogen (H, D, and T) from a source permeator (SP) into a forced convection lead lithium eutectic (PbLi) loop and determining the hydrogen extraction rates from the vanadium VP. Presented here is a computational analysis of the hydrogen inventory and permeation behavior in TEX using the hydrogen transport and accident analysis code MELCOR-TMAP developed at INL. The results of a sensitivity analysis based on MELCOR-TMAP simulations of hydrogen extraction efficiencies from the TEX test section using varying PbLi flow rates, hydrogen source rates from the SP, and material property uncertainties are also reported. Operation scenarios for TEX in consideration of the analyses based on results from MELCOR-TMAP are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extension of SCALE/Sampler’s sensitivity analysis

Nuclear data are a major source of uncertainties in reactor physics calculations. The propagation of nuclear data uncertainties to important system responses is instrumental when determining appropriate safety margins in reactor safety analyses. It is also important to understand the major contributors to the observed uncertainties to make recommendations for further measurements and evaluations and aid in the understanding of the studied system. The SCALE code system allows for nuclear data uncertainty analysis based on the random sampling approach as implemented in SCALE’s Sampler sequence. Sampler was recently extended by a sensitivity analysis in terms of the calculation of two correlation-based sensitivity indices. This analysis allows for the identification of the top contributing nuclear reactions to any analyzed output uncertainty. This paper presents the sensitivity indices, along with their interpretation and limitations. It demonstrates the application in an eigenvalue and decay heat analysis for a boiling water reactor fuel assembly.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity Analysis of Genome-Scale Metabolic Flux Prediction

TRIMER, Transcription Regulation Integrated with MEtabolic Regulation, is a genome-scale modeling pipeline targeting at metabolic engineering applications. Using TRIMER, regulated metabolic reactions can be effectively predicted by integrative modeling of metabolic reactions with a Transcription Factor (TF)-gene regulatory network (TRN), which is modeled via a Bayesian network (BN). In this paper, we focus on sensitivity analysis of metabolic flux prediction for uncertainty quantification of BN structures for TRN modeling in TRIMER. We propose a computational strategy to construct the uncertainty class of TRN models based on the inferred regulatory order uncertainty given transcriptomic expression data. With that, we analyze the prediction sensitivity of the TRIMER pipeline for the metabolite yields of interest. The obtained sensitivity analyses can guide Optimal Experimental Design (OED) to help acquire new data that can enhance TRN modeling and achieve specific metabolic engineering objectives, including metabolite yield alterations. Here we have performed small- and large-scale simulated experiments, demonstrating the effectiveness of our developed sensitivity analysis strategy for BN structure learning to quantify the edge importance in terms of metabolic flux prediction uncertainty reduction and its potential to effectively guide OED.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity analysis of generic deep geologic repository with focus on spatial heterogeneity induced by stochastic fracture network generation

Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment Framework is a state-of-the-art simulation software toolkit for probabilistic post-closure performance assessment of systems for deep geologic disposal of nuclear waste developed by the United States Department of Energy. This paper presents a generic reference case and shows how it is being used to develop and demonstrate performance assessment methods within the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment Framework that mitigate some of the challenges posed by high uncertainty and limited computational resources. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis is applied to assess the effects of spatial heterogeneity using graph-based summary measures for scalar and time-varying quantities of interest. Behavior of the system with respect to spatial heterogeneity is further investigated using ratios of water fluxes. This analysis shows that spatial heterogeneity is a dominant uncertainty in predictions of repository performance which can be identified in global sensitivity analysis using proxy variables derived from graph descriptions of discrete fracture networks. New quantities of interest defined using water fluxes proved useful for better understanding overall system behavior.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

PETSc TSAdjoint: A Discrete Adjoint ODE Solver for First-Order and Second-Order Sensitivity Analysis

Here, we present a new software system PETSc TSAdjoint for first-order and second order adjoint sensitivity analysis of time-dependent nonlinear differential equations. The derivative calculation in PETSc TSAdjoint is essentially a high-level algorithmic differentiation process. The adjoint models are derived by differentiating the timestepping algorithms and implementing them based on the parallel infrastructure in PETSc. Full differentiation of the library code, including MPI routines, is avoided, and users do not need to derive their own adjoint models for their specific applications. PETSc TSAdjoint can compute the first-order derivative, that is, the gradient of a scalar functional, and the Hessian-vector product, which carries second-order derivative information, while requiring minimal input (a few callbacks) from the users. The adjoint model employs optimal checkpointing schemes in a manner that is transparent to users. Finally, usability, efficiency, and scalability are demonstrated through examples from a variety of applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validation and moisture content sensitivity analysis of cross-laminated timber wall assemblies in EnergyPlus

Cross-laminated timber buildings are becoming more common in North America, with many numerical studies showing potential energy savings. However, no studies have validated any EnergyPlus heat transfer algorithms or quantified their accuracy in simulating CLT in building envelopes. This study empirically validates the heat flux predictions for each of EnergyPlus's heat transfer algorithms (Conduction Transfer Functions (CTF), Effective Moisture Penetration Depth (EMPD), Conduction Finite Difference (CondFD), and Heat and Moisture Transfer (HAMT)) for two different CLT ply thicknesses with both summer and winter boundary conditions measured in controlled lab experiments. It also evaluates the model sensitivity of heat flux and heating and cooling loads to moisture content. The 1D validation shows that the HAMT model is the most accurate among all algorithms. All EnergyPlus's heat flux predictions are accurate independent of CLT plate thickness for summer conditions. However, the three constant property algorithms (CTF, EMPD, and CondFD) underpredict heat flux throughout the whole day during winter conditions. The 1D sensitivity analysis indicates that elevated moisture content can increase peak heat fluxes through the material by up to 20 %. Finally, the whole building model sensitivity analysis shows increased heating load and slight cooling load variation due to increased moisture content when using constant property models. The analysis shows significantly lower peak thermal demand (7 % lower heating and 6 % lower cooling) and monthly thermal load (8 % less cooling and 6 % less heating) predictions when using HAMT vs a constant property model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Incorporating geological structure into sensitivity analysis of subsurface contaminant transport

Simulating subsurface contaminant transport at the kilometer-scale often entails modeling reactive flow and transport within and through complex geologic structures. These structures are typically meshed by hand and as a result geologic structure is usually represented by one or a few deterministically generated geological models for uncertainty studies of flow and transport in the subsurface. Uncertainty in geologic structure can have a significant impact on contaminant transport. In this study, the impact of geologic structure on contaminant tracer transport in a shale formation is investigated for a simplified generic deep geologic repository for permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel. An open-source modeling framework is used to perform a sensitivity analysis study on transport of two tracers from a generic spent nuclear fuel repository with uncertain location of the interfaces between the stratum of the geologic structure. The automated workflow uses sampled realizations of the geological structural model in addition to uncertain flow parameters in a nested sensitivity analysis. Concentration of the tracers at observation points within, in line with, and downstream of the repository are used as the quantities of interest for determining model sensitivity to input parameters and geological realization. Finally, the results of the study indicate that the location of strata interfaces in the geological structure has a first-order impact on tracer transport in the example shale formation, and that this impact may be greater than that of the uncertain flow parameters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of sensitivity analysis in DYMOND/Dakota to fuel cycle transition scenarios

The ability to perform sensitivity analysis has been enabled for the nuclear fuel cycle simulator DYMOND through its coupling with the design and analysis toolkit Dakota. To test and demonstrate these new capabilities, a transition scenario and multi-parameter study were devised. The transition scenario represents a partial transition from the US nuclear fleet to a closed fuel cycle with small modular LWRs and fast reactors fueled by reprocessed used nuclear fuel. Four uncertain parameters in this transition were studied – start date of reprocessing, total reprocessing capacity, the nuclear energy demand growth, and the rate at which the fast reactors are deployed – with respect to their impact on four response metrics. The responses – total natural uranium consumed, maximum annual enrichment capacity required, total disposed mass, and total cost of the nuclear fuel cycle – were chosen based on measures known to be of interest in transition scenarios and to be significantly impacted by the varying parameters. Furthermore, analysis of this study was performed both from the direct sampling and through surrogate models developed in Dakota to calculate the global sensitivity measures Sobol’ indices. This example application of this new capability showed that the most consequential parameter to most metrics was the share of new build capacity that is fast reactors. However, for the cost metric, the scaling factor of the energy demand growth was significant and had synergistic behavior with the fast reactor new build share.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity Analysis of Transient Critical Heat Flux by RIA Under High-Pressure Flow Boiling Conditions in TRTL

A reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) is a design-basis accident under which critical heat flux (CHF) is likely to be exceeded. The operational margin for RIAs is currently determined using steady-state CHF lookup tables, which provide conservative estimates relative to transient CHF phenomena. The Transient Reactor Test Loop (TRTL) facility at Oregon State University is capable of performing out-of-pile rapid heating experiments representative of a RIA at conditions representative of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). Here, to further our understanding of and ability to predict transient CHF under PWR conditions, we performed a sensitivity analysis on a RELAP5-3D model of the TRTL facility coupled to the RAVEN code framework to define a proposed experimental test matrix to be performed at the TRTL facility. We then implemented a flow boiling CHF correlation into RELAP5-3D and performed a secondary sensitivity analysis inspecting the impact of the built-in RELAP5-3D CHF and heat transfer multipliers on both the prediction of CHF and key safety parameters, such as peak cladding temperature and heat flux. The results show that the multiplier with the highest influence toward the prediction of CHF occurrence and the safety parameters is the transient CHF multiplier. Operational performance envelopes have been developed for each of the test matrix cases and will be used for validation once the experiments are performed. The TRTL facility is currently performing shakedown testing to verify system performance prior to proceeding with the experimental campaign. Restart testing results include pump curve restart testing, pressure tests, and heater rod thermocouple transients.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model form and sensitivity analysis of CALPHAD-based nucleation models in b-stabilized Ti alloys

Accurate prediction of α-phase nucleation and growth in β-stabilized titanium alloys is crucial for designing heat treatments to optimize mechanical properties in additively manufactured lightweight components. Ideally, predictions of nucleation and growth would incorporate both top-down observations of past experimental heat treatments and bottom-up modeling of phase transformations; however, the appropriate method of combining these information sources is not self-evident. Combining top-down and bottom-up information requires a unified form of model that can connect between spatiotemporal scales, as well as sets of fitting parameters that can be identified by each data source. The selection of which parameters to fit to which data source can be made based on expert opinion, or by performing a sensitivity analysis. In solid-solid nucleation, direct observation of the nucleation and growth process is challenging. Most data on the heat treatment-controlled phase transformations are not in-situ. To predict the process and outcome of the nucleation, growth and coarsening of precipitates, theoretical models of the nucleation pathway are used to bridge the gap. Many sources of uncertainty affect the modeling of this nucleation process. It can be influenced by small variations in the thermomechanical processing history, chemical composition, and initial microstructure. If molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine thermodynamic quantities and inform CALPHAD modeling, additional uncertainty can be introduced and accounted for using Bayesian methods. Top-down uncertainties require additional steps to quantify. The influence of nucleation model form on the sensitivity of predictions to input parameters and physical conditions is the focus of this study. Classical nucleation theory (CNT) allows modeling to formulate the nucleation as homogeneous or, more commonly, heterogeneous. Non-classical nucleation models are also increasingly explored as a means of reconciling top-down and bottom-up data. In this study, the sensitivity of the intragranular nucleation of α in a β-annealed, slow-cooled aging (BASCA) heat treatment of β-stabilized Ti5553 alloy is explored using CNT and both heterogeneous and homogeneous assumptions. The Kampmann-Wagner Numerical model of precipitate nucleation and growth is employed. Using open-source tools (pyCalphad and thermodynamic modeling of TiMo as a surrogate system, a sensitivity analysis is performed to measure variations in key parameters, including chemical driving force, interfacial energy, and diffusivity, as they relate to predictions of precipitate number density. The inclusion of top-down and bottom-up data in selection of nucleation model form is discussed.

Rodriguez Negron, A. M.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Bulk Properties of an Atomic Nucleus

We perform a global sensitivity analysis of the binding energy and the charge radius of the nucleus 16 O to identify the most influential low-energy constants in the next-to-next-to-leading order chiral Hamiltonian with two- and three-nucleon forces. For this purpose, we develop a subspace-projected coupled-cluster method using eigenvector continuation [Frame D. et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 121, 032501 (2018)]. With this method, we compute the binding energy and charge radius of 16 O at more than 106 different values of the 16 low-energy constants in one hour on a standard laptop computer. For relatively small subspace projections, the root-mean-square error is about 1% compared to full-space coupled-cluster results. We find that 58(1)% of the variance in energy can be apportioned to a single contact term in the 3 S 1 wave, whereas the radius depends sensitively on several low-energy constants and their higher-order correlations. The results identify the most important parameters for describing nuclear saturation and help prioritize efforts for uncertainty reduction of theoretical predictions. The achieved acceleration opens up an array of computational statistics analyses of the underlying description of the strong nuclear interaction in nuclei across the Segrè chart.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Island scanning pattern optimization for residual deformation mitigation in laser powder bed fusion via sequential inherent strain method and sensitivity analysis

Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) has emerged as one of the mainstream additive manufacturing approaches for fabricating metal parts with complex geometries and intricate internal structures. However, large deformation associated with rapid heating and cooling can lead to build failure and requires post-processing which may increase manufacturing cost and prolong the production period. Here in this work, an island scanning pattern design method is proposed to optimize the scanning direction of each island in order to reduce part deformation after cutting off the build platform. The objective of this optimization is to minimize the upward bending of the part after sectioning, which allows the part deformation to satisfy the tolerance requirement or reduce the post heat treatment time. Inherent strain method is employed in the sequential finite element analysis consisting of layer-by-layer activations and sectioning for fast residual distortion prediction. Full sequential sensitivity analysis for the formulated optimization is provided to update the island scanning directions. To show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method, the scanning patterns of a block structure and a connecting rod were designed and parts were fabricated using an open architecture L-PBF machine. The fabrication experiments demonstrated that the residual deformation of both parts fabricated by optimized scanning pattern can be reduced by over 50% compared to the initial scanning patterns, which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enabling Hyper-Differential Sensitivity Analysis for Ill-Posed Inverse Problems

Inverse problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs) play a critical role in model development and calibration. In many applications, there are multiple uncertain parameters in a model that must be estimated. However, high dimensionality of the parameters and computational complexity of the PDE solves make such problems challenging. A common approach is to reduce the dimension by fixing some parameters (which we will call auxiliary parameters) to a best estimate and use techniques from PDE-constrained optimization to estimate the other parameters. In this article, hyper-differential sensitivity analysis (HDSA) is used to assess the sensitivity of the solution of the PDE-constrained optimization problem to changes in the auxiliary parameters. Foundational assumptions for HDSA require satisfaction of the optimality conditions which are not always practically feasible as a result of ill-posedness in the inverse problem. Here we introduce novel theoretical and computational approaches to justify and enable HDSA for ill-posed inverse problems by projecting the sensitivities on likelihood informed subspaces and defining a posteriori updates. Our proposed framework is demonstrated on a nonlinear multiphysics inverse problem motivated by estimation of spatially heterogeneous material properties in the presence of spatially distributed parametric modeling uncertainties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗