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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Informing nuclear physics via machine learning methods with differential and integral experiments

Information from differential nuclear-physics experiments and theory is often too uncertain to accurately define nuclear-physics observables such as cross sections or energy spectra. Integral experimental data, representing the applications of these observables, are often more precise but depend simultaneously on too many of them to unambiguously identify issues in the observable with human expert analysis alone. Here, we explore how we can leverage physics knowledge gained from differential experimental data, nuclear theory, integral experiments, and neutron-transport calculations to better understand nuclear-physics observables in the context of the application area represented by integral experiments. We support this task with machine-learning methods to discern trends in a large amount of convoluted data. Differential and integral information was used in an analysis augmented by the random forest and the Shapley additive explanations metric. We chose as an application area one that is represented by criticality measurements and pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra. We show one representative example ( 241 Pu fission observables) where the combination of differential and integral information allowed to resolve issues in data representing these observables. As a starting point, the machine learning (ML) algorithms highlighted several observables as leading potentially to bias in simulating integral experiments. Differential information, paired with sensitivity to integral quantities, allowed us then to pinpoint one specific observable ( 241 Pu fission cross section) as the main driver of bias. The comparison to integral experiments, on the other hand, allowed us to indicate a likely reliable experiment among several discrepant ones for this observables. In other cases (e.g., 239 Pu observables), we were not able to resolve the confounding introduced by integral experiments but instead highlighted the need for targeted new experiments and theory developments to better constrain the nuclear-physics space for the application area represented by integral experiments. We were able to combine information from differential experimental data, nuclear-physics theory, integral experiments, and neutron-transport simulations of the latter experiments with the help of the random forest algorithm and expert judgment. This combination of knowledge allows to improve our description of nuclear-physics observables as applied to a particular application area.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A high-throughput experimentation platform for data-driven discovery in electrochemistry

Automating electrochemical analyses combined with artificial intelligence is poised to accelerate discoveries in renewable energy sciences and technologies. This study presents an automated high-throughput electrochemical characterization (AHTech) platform as a cost-effective and versatile tool for rapidly assessing liquid analytes. The Python-controlled platform combines a liquid handling robot, potentiostat, and customizable microelectrode bundles for diverse, reproducible electrochemical measurements in microtiter plates, minimizing chemical consumption and manual effort. To showcase the capability of AHTech, we screened a library of 180 small molecules as electrolyte additives for aqueous zinc metal batteries, generating data for training machine learning models to predict Coulombic efficiencies. Key molecular features governing additive performance were elucidated using Shapley Additive exPlanations and Spearman’s correlation, pinpointing high-performance candidates like cis-4-hydroxy-d-proline, which achieved an average Coulombic efficiency of 99.52% over 200 cycles. The workflow established herein is highly adaptable, offering a powerful framework for accelerating the exploration and optimization of extensive chemical spaces across diverse energy storage and conversion fields.

Lin, Dian-Zhao [Johns Hopkins University, Baltimor↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Agnostic Feature-Target Analysis & Ranking Machine Learning Pipeline (DAFTAR-ML) v0.1.0

DAFTAR-ML is a specialized machine-learning pipeline that identifies relevant features based on their relationship to a target variable. Many ML pipelines focus solely on prediction, and feature ranking is often absent or lacks robust statistical methods. DAFTAR-ML performs its tasks with this outcome in mind. Model training is robust, using nested cross-validation and hyperparameter tuning. Instead of relying on native feature-importance scores, it employs SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to quantify feature importance. The pipeline also produces comprehensive results, including publication-quality visualizations.

Melie, Tina [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Errors in the ERA5 Reanalysis with Machine Learning and 25 Years of Surface Observations

Earth system models struggle to simulate clouds and their radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, partly due to a lack of measurements and targeted cloud microphysics knowledge. We have evaluated biases of downwelling shortwave radiation in the ERA5 climate reanalysis using 25 years (1995–2019) of summertime surface measurements, collected on the Research and Supply Vessel (RSV) Aurora Australis, the Research Vessel (R/V) Investigator, and at Macquarie Island. During October–March daylight hours, the ERA5 simulation of SW down exhibited large errors (mean bias = 54 W m -2 , mean absolute error = 82 W m -2 , root-mean-square error = 132 W m -2 , and R 2 = 0.71). To determine whether we could improve these statistics, we bypassed ERA5’s radiative transfer model for SW down with machine learning–based models using a number of ERA5’s gridscale meteorological variables as predictors. These models were trained and tested with the surface measurements of SW down using a 10-fold shuffle split. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a random forest–based model setup had the best performance relative to ERA5, both with a near complete reduction of the mean bias error, a decrease in the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error by 25% ± 3%, and an increase in the R 2 value of 5% ± 1% over the 10 splits. Large improvements occurred at higher latitudes and cyclone cold sectors, where ERA5 performed most poorly. We further interpret our methods using Shapley additive explanations. Our results indicate that data-driven techniques could have an important role in simulating surface radiation fluxes and in improving reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Investigation of LES Wall Modeling for Rayleigh–Bénard Convection via Interpretable and Physics-Aware Feedforward Neural Networks with DNS

Abstract The traditional approach of using the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to model near-surface processes in large-eddy simulations (LESs) can lead to significant errors in natural convection. In this study, we propose an alternative approach based on feedforward neural networks (FNNs) trained on output from direct numerical simulation (DNS). To evaluate the performance, we conduct both a priori and a posteriori tests. In the a priori (offline) tests, we compare the statistics of the surface shear stress and heat flux, computed from filtered DNS input variables, to the stress and flux obtained from the filtered DNS. Additionally, we investigate the importance of various input features using the Shapley additive explanations value and the conditional average of the filter grid cells. In the a posteriori (online) tests, we implement the trained models in the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) LES and compare the LES-generated surface shear stress and heat flux with those in the DNS. Our findings reveal that vertical velocity, a traditionally overlooked flow quantity, is one of the most important input features for determining the wall fluxes. Increasing the number of input features improves the a priori test results but does not always improve the model performance in the a posteriori tests because of the differences in input variables between the LES and DNS. Last, we show that physics-aware FNN models trained with logarithmic and scaled parameters can well extrapolate to more intense convection scenarios than in the training dataset, whereas those trained with primitive flow quantities cannot. Significance Statement The traditional near-surface turbulence model, based on a shear-dominated boundary layer flow, does not represent near-surface turbulence in natural convection. Using a feedforward neural network (FNN), we can construct a more accurate model that better represents the near-surface turbulence in various flows and reveals previously overlooked controlling factors and process interactions. Our study shows that the FNN-generated models outperform the traditional model and highlight the importance of the near-surface vertical velocity. Furthermore, the physics-aware FNN models exhibit the potential to extrapolate to convective flows of various intensities beyond the range of the training dataset, suggesting their broader applicability for more accurate modeling of near-surface turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Remote Sensing and GIS data at 1km-grid over Chesapeake Bay used in “He et al. 2024, Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem”

The package contains the data layers used in “He et al. 2024, Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem”. The study aims to use multi-source remote sensing and GIS datasets to investigate the spatial heterogeneity and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics and understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. We employed unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, then determined the main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Spatial data layers include soil respiration, kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) computed from Harmonized Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 time series, climate variables from the Daymet dataset, land cover, biodiversity, topographical metrics, soil property, and tidal elevation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Experiments and Well Logs to Predict Caney Shale Static Mechanical Properties During Production with Supervised Machine Learning

Caney shale is one of the emerging oil reservoirs in Oklahoma. Understanding the impact of effective stress on its mechanical properties is critical for predicting hydraulic fracture geometry and overall hydrocarbon production. The objective of our study is to evaluate the impact of effective stress on the dynamic Young’s modulus using ultrasonic velocity measurements for Caney shale samples. A triaxial cell was utilized to measure ultrasonic (P-wave and S-wave) velocities for ten downhole Caney shale samples under various effective stresses to indirectly assess the impact of pore pressure change. The dynamic Young’s moduli estimated from these measurements were integrated with available conventional well logs (excluding sonic logs) and triaxial test results from Benge et al. (2021) to predict the static Young’s modulus using Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. The results showed that the estimated dynamic Young’s moduli from ultrasonic measurements were higher than the corresponding static Young’s modulus of cores from the same vertical well at similar depths. With increasing effective stress, the dynamic Young’s modulus increased for all samples. The estimated dynamic-to-static correction factor tended to be higher in zones of high neutron porosity (PHIN) and low density compared to other zones. Finally, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for RF and XGBoost models identified depth, gamma ray (GR), and PHIN as key features for predicting the static Young’s modulus. This study enhances our understanding of the dynamic and static Young’s moduli for the Caney shale interval, as a function of effective stress and conventional well logs. The findings from this study can improve predictions of production throughout the well's lifespan by offering insights into the mechanical property degradation resulting from pore pressure depletion.

Kholy, Sherif M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovery of Innovative Polymers for Next-Generation Gas-Separation Membranes using Interpretable Machine Learning

Polymer membranes perform innumerable separations with far-reaching environmental implications. Despite decades of research on membrane technologies, design of new membrane materials remains a largely Edisonian process. To address this shortcoming, we demonstrate a generalizable, accurate machine-learning (ML) implementation for the discovery of innovative polymers with ideal separation performance. Specifically, multitask ML models are trained on available experimental data to link polymer chemistry to gas permeabilities of He, H2, O2, N2, CO2, and CH4. Here, we interpret the ML models and extract chemical heuristics for membrane design, through Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis. We then screen over nine million hypothetical polymers through our models and identify thousands of candidates that lie well above current performance upper bounds. Notably, we discover hundreds of never-before-seen ultrapermeable polymer membranes with O2 and CO2 permeability greater than 104 and 105 Barrer, respectively. These hypothetical polymers are capable of overcoming undesirable trade-off relationship between permeability and selectivity, thus significantly expanding the currently limited library of polymer membranes for highly efficient gas separations. High-fidelity molecular dynamics simulations confirm the ML-predicted gas permeabilities of the promising candidates, which suggests that many can be translated to reality.

Yang, Jason↗
DOE OSTI2021

Verification and validation of developed short-term forecasting models

Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies provide an opportunity for leveraging data-driven algorithms to predict future nuclear power plant (NPP) operating conditions by using recorded plant process data. Successfully implementing these models can lead to cost-reducing, conditioned-based predictive maintenance through optimized maintenance schedules and a reduction of unnecessary maintenance activities. This report discusses the verification and validation of short-term forecasting processes (i.e., data cleaning, feature selection, model optimization, and forecasting) developed in previous reports. The verification and validation (V&V) process demonstrates the expected precision and accuracy when the ML model encounters new datasets from different systems. Shapley additive explanations were used as the primary means of feature selection across these different data set. Individual models were trained for each data set, then validated through a cross-validation procedure. In this report, two different ML models were tasked to predict variables from three different plant process data sets with varying prediction horizons. The results indicate that support vector regression (SVR) outperformed long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks in regard to each data set and each prediction horizon in this study, but further tuning and optimization could improve long short-term memory results. However, each forecasting model showed reduced performance as the prediction horizon was extended from 1 hour to 1 day ahead. Research is ongoing to evaluate the optimal input variable space, which is based on a given set of process parameters, to further improve forecasting accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Machine Learning Algorithms to Identify Problematic Nuclear Data

In this work we aim to show that Machine learning algorithms are promising tools for the identification of nuclear data that contribute to increased errors in transport simulations. We demonstrate this through an application of a machine learning algorithm (Random Forest) to the Whisper/MCNP6 criticality validation library to identify nuclear data that are associated with an increase of the bias (simulated - experimental $k_{eff}$) in the calculations. Specifically, the $k_{eff}$ sensitivity profiles (w.r.t. nuclear data) of 233 U solution benchmarks are used to predict the bias and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) are used to explain how the sensitivities are related to the predicted bias. The SHAP values can be interpreted as sensitivity coefficients of the machine learning model to the $k_{eff}$ sensitivities which are used to make predictions of bias. Using the SHAP values we can identify specific subsets of nuclear data which have the highest probability of influencing bias. We demonstrate the utility of this method by showing how SHAP values were used to identify an inconsistency in the 19 F inelastic scattering nuclear data. The methodology presented here is not limited to transport problems and can be applied to other simulations if there are experimental measurements to compare against, simulations of those experimental measurements, and the ability to calculate sensitivities of the model output with respect to the data inputs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the minimum number of radiation field parameters to specify gas cooling and heating functions

Fast and accurate approximations of gas cooling and heating functions are needed for hydrodynamic galaxy simulations. We use machine learning to analyze atomic gas cooling and heating functions in the presence of a generalized incident local radiation field computed by Cloudy. We characterize the radiation field through binned radiation field intensities instead of the photoionization rates used in our previous work. We find a set of 6 energy bins whose intensities exhibit relatively low correlation. We use these bins as features to train machine learning models to predict Cloudy cooling and heating functions at fixed metallicity. We compare the relative SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) value importance of the features. From the SHAP analysis, we identify a feature subset of 3 energy bins (0.5-1, 1-4, and 13-16Ry) with the largest importance and train additional models on this subset. We compare the mean squared errors and distribution of errors on both the entire training data table and a randomly selected 20% test set withheld from model training. The machine learning models trained with 3 and 6 bins, as well as 3 and 4 photoionization rates, have comparable accuracy everywhere, with errors ≳10 times smaller than for the interpolation table of Gnedin and Hollon (2012). We conclude that 3 energy bins (or 3 analogous photoionization rates: molecular hydrogen photodissociation, neutral hydrogen HI, and fully ionized carbon CVI) are sufficient to characterize the dependence of the gas cooling and heating functions on our assumed incident radiation field model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

TCR-H: explainable machine learning prediction of T-cell receptor epitope binding on unseen datasets

Artificial-intelligence and machine-learning (AI/ML) approaches to predicting T-cell receptor (TCR)-epitope specificity achieve high performance metrics on test datasets which include sequences that are also part of the training set but fail to generalize to test sets consisting of epitopes and TCRs that are absent from the training set, i.e., are ‘unseen’ during training of the ML model. We present TCR-H, a supervised classification Support Vector Machines model using physicochemical features trained on the largest dataset available to date using only experimentally validated non-binders as negative datapoints. TCR-H exhibits an area under the curve of the receiver-operator characteristic (AUC of ROC) of 0.87 for epitope ‘hard splitting’ (i.e., on test sets with all epitopes unseen during ML training), 0.92 for TCR hard splitting and 0.89 for ‘strict splitting’ in which neither the epitopes nor the TCRs in the test set are seen in the training data. Furthermore, we employ the SHAP (Shapley additive explanations) eXplainable AI (XAI) method for post hoc interrogation to interpret the models trained with different hard splits, shedding light on the key physiochemical features driving model predictions. TCR-H thus represents a significant step towards general applicability and explainability of epitope:TCR specificity prediction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of hydrometeorological influences on reservoir releases using explainable machine learning methods

Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated successful applications in accurately and efficiently predicting reservoir releases from hydrometeorological drivers including reservoir storage, inflow, precipitation, and temperature. However, due to its black-box nature and lack of process-based implementation, we are unsure whether LSTM makes good predictions for the right reasons. In this work, we use an explainable machine learning (ML) method, called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to evaluate the variable importance and variable-wise temporal importance in the LSTM model prediction. In application to 30 reservoirs over the Upper Colorado River Basin, United States, we show that LSTM can accurately predict the reservoir releases with NSE ≥ 0.69 for all the considered reservoirs despite of their diverse storage sizes, functionality, elevations, etc. Additionally, SHAP indicates that storage and inflow are more influential than precipitation and temperature. Moreover, the storage and inflow show a relatively long-term influence on the release up to 7 days and this influence decreases as the lag time increases for most reservoirs. These findings from SHAP are consistent with our physical understanding. However, in a few reservoirs, SHAP gives some temporal importances that are difficult to interpret from a hydrological point of view, probably because of its ignorance of the variable interactions. SHAP is a useful tool for black-box ML model explanations, but the hydrological processes inferred from its results should be interpreted cautiously. More investigations of SHAP and its applications in hydrological modeling is needed and will be pursued in our future study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine-learning based approach to examine ecological processes influencing the diversity of riverine dissolved organic matter composition

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) assemblages in freshwater rivers are formed from mixtures of simple to complex compounds that are highly variable across time and space. These mixtures largely form due to the environmental heterogeneity of river networks and the contribution of diverse allochthonous and autochthonous DOM sources. Most studies are, however, confined to local and regional scales, which precludes an understanding of how these mixtures arise at large, e.g., continental, spatial scales. The processes contributing to these mixtures are also difficult to study because of the complex interactions between various environmental factors and DOM. Here we propose the use of machine learning (ML) approaches to identify ecological processes contributing toward mixtures of DOM at a continental-scale. We related a dataset that characterized the molecular composition of DOM from river water and sediment with Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry to explanatory physicochemical variables such as nutrient concentrations and stable water isotopes ( 2 H and 18 O). Using unsupervised ML, distinctive clusters for sediment and water samples were identified, with unique molecular compositions influenced by environmental factors like terrestrial input and microbial activity. Sediment clusters showed a higher proportion of protein-like and unclassified compounds than water clusters, while water clusters exhibited a more diversified chemical composition. We then applied a supervised ML approach, involving a two-stage use of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. In the first stage, SHAP values were obtained and used to identify key physicochemical variables. These parameters were employed to train models using both the default and subsequently tuned hyperparameters of the Histogram-based Gradient Boosting (HGB) algorithm. The supervised ML approach, using HGB and SHAP values, highlighted complex relationships between environmental factors and DOM diversity, in particular the existence of dams upstream, precipitation events, and other watershed characteristics were important in predicting higher chemical diversity in DOM. Our data-driven approach can now be used more generally to reveal the interplay between physical, chemical, and biological factors in determining the diversity of DOM in other ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗
DOE OSTI2024

How the Galaxy–Halo Connection Depends on Large-scale Environment

We investigate the connection between galaxies, dark matter halos, and their large-scale environments at z = 0 with Illustris TNG300 hydrodynamic simulation data. We predict stellar masses from subhalo properties to test two types of machine learning (ML) models: explainable boosting machines (EBMs) with simple galaxy environment features and E(3)-invariant graph neural networks (GNNs). The best-performing EBM models leverage spherically averaged overdensity features on 3 Mpc scales. Interpretations via SHapley Additive exPlanations also suggest that in the context of the TNG300 galaxy–halo connection, simple spherical overdensity on ∼3 Mpc scales is more important than cosmic web distance features measured using the DisPerSE algorithm. Meanwhile, a GNN with connectivity defined by a fixed linking length, L, outperforms the EBM models by a significant margin. As we increase the linking length scale, GNNs learn important environmental contributions up to the largest scales we probe (L = 10 Mpc). We conclude that 3 Mpc distance scales are most critical for describing the TNG galaxy–halo connection using the spherical overdensity parameterization, but that information on larger scales, which is not captured by simple environmental parameters or cosmic web features, can further augment these models. Our study highlights the benefits of using interpretable ML algorithms to explain models of astrophysical phenomena, and the power of using GNNs to flexibly learn complex relationships directly from data while imposing constraints from physical symmetries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the minimum number of radiation field parameters to specify gas cooling and heating functions

Fast and accurate approximations of gas cooling and heating functions are needed for hydrodynamic galaxy simulations. We use machine learning to analyze atomic gas cooling and heating functions computed by Cloudy in the presence of a generalized incident local radiation field. We characterize the radiation field through binned radiation field intensities instead of the photoionization rates used in our previous work. We find a set of 6 energy bins whose intensities exhibit relatively low correlation. We use these bins as features to train machine learning models to predict Cloudy cooling and heating functions at fixed metallicity. We compare the relative SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) value importance of the features. From the SHAP analysis, we identify a feature subset of 3 energy bins ($0.5-1, 1-4$, and $13-16 \, \mathrm{Ry}$) with the largest importance and train additional models on this subset. We compare the mean squared errors and distribution of errors on both the entire training data table and a randomly selected 20% test set withheld from model training. The machine learning models trained with 3 and 6 bins, as well as 3 and 4 photoionization rates, have comparable accuracy everywhere, with errors $\gtrsim 10$ times smaller than for the interpolation table of Gnedin and Hollon (2012). We conclude that 3 energy bins (or 3 analogous photoionization rates: molecular hydrogen photodissociation, neutral hydrogen HI, and fully ionized carbon CVI) are sufficient to characterize the dependence of the gas cooling and heating functions on our assumed incident radiation field model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping wall-to-wall fractional cover of Arctic tundra plant functional types in Alaska using 20-m spatial resolution satellite imagery and harmonized plot observations

Estimates of fractional cover (fCover) across given land surfaces are used to assess, and often model, vegetation composition and diversity, which are crucial for understanding the health and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Remote sensing provides a useful means for scaling local, plot-measured fCover estimates to regional scales. Leveraging a recently synthesized and harmonized plot database, this study generated wall-to-wall maps of fCover for six Alaskan-Arctic plant functional types (PFT), including non-vascular plants, forbs, graminoids, and deciduous and evergreen shrubs, using 20-m satellite data (Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, ArcticDEM) using a machine learning regression approach, specifically the random forest (RF) algorithm, which is well-suited for handling nonlinear relationships and high-dimensional satellite datasets. This study additionally addressed the spatio-temporal inconsistencies e.g., sampling scale, plot size, and collection year in plot measured fCover by adopting a multivariate outlier detection approach—Cook’s distance—to identify high-quality plots for model training and validation. Our approach achieves high accuracy (R 2 = 0.59–0.93, root mean squared errors = 0.02–0.10 for all PFTs) between plot-observed and satellite-derived fCover when using high-quality plot samples. The mapped fCover characterizes the spatial patterns of different PFTs across the tundra biome at a 20-m resolution, providing key information needed for improved representation of Arctic tundra vegetation in terrestrial biosphere models to better understand climate-vegetation feedback across the Arctic tundra.

Arctic tundra↗