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NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, a is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The Maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter alpha(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (P1) consistency (asymptotically unbiased). (P2) efficiency asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only he ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum-detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However. the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are attained in practice are investigated. The ML technique is then extended to estimate spectra information from an arbitrary number of astrophysics data sets produced by vastly different science instruments. This theory and its successful implementation will facilitate the interpretation of spectral information from multiple astrophysics missions and thereby permit the derivation of superior spectral parameter estimates based on the combination of data sets.

Howell, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, sigma(sub 2), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index sigma(sub 2) greater than sigma(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter sigma(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (Pl) consistency (asymptotically unbiased), (P2) efficiency (asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only be ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum- detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However, the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are stained in practice are investigated.

Howell, L. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Carbon Dioxide Dispersion in the Combustion Integrated Rack Simulated Numerically

When discharged into an International Space Station (ISS) payload rack, a carbon dioxide (CO2) portable fire extinguisher (PFE) must extinguish a fire by decreasing the oxygen in the rack by 50 percent within 60 sec. The length of time needed for this oxygen reduction throughout the rack and the length of time that the CO2 concentration remains high enough to prevent the fire from reigniting is important when determining the effectiveness of the response and postfire procedures. Furthermore, in the absence of gravity, the local flow velocity can make the difference between a fire that spreads rapidly and one that self-extinguishes after ignition. A numerical simulation of the discharge of CO2 from PFE into the Combustion Integrated Rack (CIR) in microgravity was performed to obtain the local velocity and CO2 concentration. The complicated flow field around the PFE nozzle exits was modeled by sources of equivalent mass and momentum flux at a location downstream of the nozzle. The time for the concentration of CO2 to reach a level that would extinguish a fire anywhere in the rack was determined using the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), a computational fluid dynamics code developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology specifically to evaluate the development of a fire and smoke transport. The simulation shows that CO2, as well as any smoke and combustion gases produced by a fire, would be discharged into the ISS cabin through the resource utility panel at the bottom of the rack. These simulations will be validated by comparing the results with velocity and CO2 concentration measurements obtained during the fire suppression system verification tests conducted on the CIR in March 2003. Once these numerical simulations are validated, portions of the ISS labs and living areas will be modeled to determine the local flow conditions before, during, and after a fire event. These simulations can yield specific information about how long it takes for smoke and combustion gases produced by a fire to reach a detector location, how large the fire would be when the detector alarms, and the behavior of the fire until it has been extinguished. This new capability could then be used to optimize the location of fire detectors and fire-suppression ports as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of fire suppressants and response strategies. Numerical data collected from these simulations could also be used to develop a virtual reality fire event for crew training and fire safety awareness. This work is funded by NASA's Bioastronautics Initiative, which has the objective of ensuring and enhancing the health, safety, and performance of humans in space. As part of this initiative, the Microgravity Combustion Science Branch at the NASA Glenn Research Center is conducting spacecraft fire safety research to significantly improve fire safety on inhabited spacecraft.

Wu, Ming-Shin↗

NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of large solid propellant rocket engine exhaust plumes using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method

A new solution procedure has been developed to analyze the flowfield properties in the vicinity of the Inertial Upper Stage/Spacecraft during the 1st stage (SRMI) burn. Continuum methods are used to compute the nozzle flow and the exhaust plume flowfield as far as the boundary where the breakdown of translational equilibrium leaves these methods invalid. The Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is applied everywhere beyond this breakdown boundary. The flowfield distributions of density, velocity, temperature, relative abundance, surface flux density, and pressure are discussed for each species for 2 sets of boundary conditions: vacuum and freestream. The interaction of the exhaust plume and the freestream with the spacecraft and the 2-stream direct interaction are discussed. The results show that the low density, high velocity, counter flowing free-stream substantially modifies the flowfield properties and the flux density incident on the spacecraft. A freestream bow shock is observed in the data, located forward of the high density region of the exhaust plume into which the freestream gas does not penetrate. The total flux density incident on the spacecraft, integrated over the SRM1 burn interval is estimated to be of the order of 10 to the 22nd per sq m (about 1000 atomic layers).

Hueser, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2008

GEWEX Water and Energy Budget Study

Closing the global water and energy budgets has been an elusive Global Energy and Water-cycle Experiment (GEWEX) goal. It has been difficult to gather many of the needed global water and energy variables and processes, although, because of GEWEX, we now have globally gridded observational estimates for precipitation and radiation and many other relevant variables such as clouds and aerosols. Still, constrained models are required to fill in many of the process and variable gaps. At least there are now several atmospheric reanalyses ranging from the early National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalyses to the more recent ERA40 and JRA-25 reanalyses. Atmospheric constraints include requirements that the models state variables remain close to in situ observations or observed satellite radiances. This is usually done by making short-term forecasts from an analyzed initial state; these short-term forecasts provide the next guess, which is corrected by comparison to available observations. While this analysis procedure is likely to result in useful global descriptions of atmospheric temperature, wind and humidity, there is no guarantee that relevant hydroclimate processes like precipitation, which we can observe and evaluate, and evaporation over land, which we cannot, have similar verisimilitude. Alternatively, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), drives uncoupled land surface models with precipitation, surface solar radiation, and surface meteorology (from bias-corrected reanalyses during the study period) to simulate terrestrial states and surface fluxes. Further constraints are made when a tuned water balance model is used to characterize the global runoff observational estimates. We use this disparate mix of observational estimates, reanalyses, GLDAS and calibrated water balance simulations to try to characterize and close global and terrestrial atmospheric and surface water and energy budgets to within 10-20% for long term (1986-1995), large-scale global to regional annual means.

Roads, J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

On the stellar rotation-activity connection

The relationship between rotation rates and surface activity in late-type dwarf stars is explored in a survey of recent theoretical and observational studies. Current theoretical models of stellar-magnetic-field production and coronal activity are examined, including linear kinematic dynamo theory, nonlinear dynamos using approximations, and full numerical simulations of the MHD equations; and some typical results are presented graphically. The limitations of the modeling procedures and the constraints imposed by the physics are indicated. The statistical techniques used in establishing correlations between various observational parameters are analyzed critically, and the methods developed for quasar luminosity functions by Avni et al. (1980) are used to evaluate the effects of upper detection bounds, incomplete samples, and missing data for the case of rotation and X-ray flux data.

Rosner, R.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Impact of turbulence modeling on numerical accuracy and efficiency of compressible flow simulations

Discussed is the numerical implementation of turbulence models used in viscous compressible flow simulations and their performance described with respect to numerical accuracy, efficiency and stability. The basic approach utilizes the Reynolds-averaged compressible Navier-Stokes equations in which the Reynolds stresses and heat fluxes are mathematically modeled by suitable turbulence models. The turbulence models investigated include zero-, one-, and two-equation eddy viscosity models. The flow fields investigated include theoretical and supersonic flows about two-dimensional and axisymmetric bodies. Discussions concerning the numerical implementation of models include differencing procedures and boundary conditions used to assume numerical stability and accuracy. Numerical performance is also evaluated by comparing computations with experimental results.

Coakley, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Thermodynamic balance of three-dimensional stratospheric winds derived from a data assimilation procedure

The NASA/Goddard three-dimensional chemistry and transport model is driven by winds from a stratospheric data assimilation system. Synoptic- and planetary-scale patterns, apparent in satellite observations of trace constituents, are successfully reproduced for seasonal integrations. As model integrations proceed, however, the quality of simulations decreases, and systematic differences between calculation and measurement appear. The differences are explained by examining the zonal-mean residual circulation. The vertical velocity w-bar (sup star) is calculated two ways: (1) from the diabatic heating rates and temperature tendency and (2) from the Eulerian vertical velocity and the horizontal eddy heat flux convergence. The results from these calculations differ substantially. Periodic insertion of observational data during the assimilation process continually shocks the general circulation model and produces these differences, which leads to an overestimate of the mean vertical heat and cconstituent transport. Such differences are expected to be general to all data assimilation products. This interpretation is corroborated by two-dimensional (2D) model calculations. When w-bar(sup star) is calculated from (2), the 2D ozone evolution is unrealistic and qualitatively similar to the 3D model simulation. The 2D ozone evolution is reasonable when w-bar (sup star) from (1).

Weaver, Clark J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A fast, time-accurate unsteady full potential scheme

The unsteady form of the full potential equation is solved in conservation form by an implicit method based on approximate factorization. At each time level, internal Newton iterations are performed to achieve time accuracy and computational efficiency. A local time linearization procedure is introduced to provide a good initial guess for the Newton iteration. A novel flux-biasing technique is applied to generate proper forms of the artificial viscosity to treat hyperbolic regions with shocks and sonic lines present. The wake is properly modeled by accounting not only for jumps in phi, but also for jumps in higher derivatives of phi, obtained by imposing the density to be continuous across the wake. The far field is modeled using the Riemann invariants to simulate nonreflecting boundary conditions. The resulting unsteady method performs well which, even at low reduced frequency levels of 0.1 or less, requires fewer than 100 time steps per cycle at transonic Mach numbers. The code is fully vectorized for the CRAY-XMP and the VPS-32 computers.

Shankar, V.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Measurement of evapotranspiration with combined reflective and thermal infrared radiance observations

The broad goal of the research summarized in this report was 'To facilitate the evaluation of regional evapotranspiration (ET) through the combined use of solar reflective and thermal infrared radiance observations.' The specific objectives stated by Goward and Hope (1986) were to: (1) investigate the nature of the relationship between surface temperature (T(sub S)) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and develop an understanding of this relationship in terms of energy exchange processes, particularly latent flux heat (LE); (2) develop procedures to estimate large area LE using combined T(sub S) and NDVI observations obtained from AVHRR data; and (3) determine whether measurements derived from satellite observations relate directly to measurements made at the surface or from aircraft platforms. Both empirical and modeling studies were used to develop an understanding of the T(sub S)-NDVI relationship. Most of the modeling was based on the Tergra model as originally proposed by Goward. This model, and modified versions developed in this project, simulates the flows of water and energy in the soil-plant-atmosphere system using meteorological, soil and vegetation inputs. Model outputs are the diurnal course of soil moisture, T(sub S), LE and the other individual components of the surface energy balance.

Hope, Allen S.↗

NASA NTRS1997

High-Flux, High-Temperature Thermal Vacuum Qualification Testing of a Solar Receiver Aperture Shield

As part of the International Space Station (ISS) Phase 1 program, NASA Lewis Research Center (LERC) and the Russian Space Agency (RSA) teamed together to design, build and flight test the world's first orbital Solar Dynamic Power System (SDPS) on the Russian space station Mir. The Solar Dynamic Flight Demonstration (SDFD) program was to operate a nominal 2 kWe SDPS on Mir for a period up to 1-year starting in late 1997. Unfortunately, the SDFD mission was demanifested from the ISS phase 1 shuttle program in early 1996. However, substantial flight hardware and prototypical flight hardware was built including a heat receiver and aperture shield. The aperture shield comprises the front face of the cylindrical cavity heat receiver and is located at the focal plane of the solar concentrator. It is constructed of a stainless steel plate with a 1-m outside diameter, a 0.24-m inside diameter and covered with high-temperature, refractory metal Multi-Foil Insulation (MFI). The aperture shield must minimize heat loss from the receiver cavity, provide a stiff, high strength structure to accommodate shuttle launch loads and protect receiver structures from highly concentrated solar fluxes during concentrator off-pointing events. To satisfy Mir operational safety protocols, the aperture shield was required to accommodate direct impingement of the intensely concentrated solar image for a 1-hour period. To verify thermal-structural durability under the anticipated high-flux, high-temperature loading, an aperture shield test article was constructed and underwent a series of two tests in a large thermal vacuum chamber configured with a reflective, point-focus solar concentrator and a solar simulator. The test article was positioned near the focal plane and exposed to concentrated solar flux for a period of 1-hour. In the first test, a near equilibrium temperature of 1862 K was attained in the center of the shield hot spot. In the second test, with increased incident flux, a near equilibrium temperature of 2072 K was achieved. The aperture shield sustained no visible damage as a result of the exposures. This paper describes the aperture shield thermal-vacuum qualification test program including the test article, test facility, procedures, data collection, test success criteria, results and conclusions.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

NASA NTRS1985

An initialization procedure for assimilating geostationary satellite data into numerical weather prediction models

An attempt was made to offset the limitations of GEO satellites for supplying timely initialization data for numerical weather prediction models (NWP). The NWP considered combined an isentropic representation of the free atmosphere with a sigma-coordinate model for the lower 200 mb. A flux form of the predictive equations described vertical transport interactions at the boundary of the two model domains, thereby accounting for the poor vertical temperature and wind field resolution of GEO satellite data. A variational analysis approach was employed to insert low resolution satellite-sensed temperature data at varying rates. The model vertical resolution was limited to that available from the satellite. Test simulations demonstrated that accuracy increases with the frequency of data updates, e.g., every 0.5-1 hr. The tests also showed that extensive cloud cover negates the capabilities of IR sensors and that microwave sensors will be needed for temperature estimations for 500-1000 mb levels.

Gal-Chen, T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Three-Dimensional Navier-Stokes Calculations Using the Modified Space-Time CESE Method

The space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) method is modified to address the robustness issues of high-aspect-ratio, viscous, near-wall meshes. In this new approach, the dependent variable gradients are evaluated using element edges and the corresponding neighboring solution elements while keeping the original flux integration procedure intact. As such, the excellent flux conservation property is retained and the new edge-based gradients evaluation significantly improves the robustness for high-aspect ratio meshes frequently encountered in three-dimensional, Navier-Stokes calculations. The order of accuracy of the proposed method is demonstrated for oblique acoustic wave propagation, shock-wave interaction, and hypersonic flows over a blunt body. The confirmed second-order convergence along with the enhanced robustness in handling hypersonic blunt body flow calculations makes the proposed approach a very competitive CFD framework for 3D Navier-Stokes simulations.

Chang, Chau-lyan↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Substorm Cycle as Reproduced by Global MHD Models

Recently, Gordeev et al. (2015) suggested a method to test global MHD models against statistical empirical data. They showed that four community-available global MHD models supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) produce a reasonable agreement with reality for those key parameters (the magnetospheric size, magnetic field, and pressure) that are directly related to the large-scale equilibria in the outer magnetosphere. Based on the same set of simulation runs, here we investigate how the models reproduce the global loading-unloading cycle. We found that in terms of global magnetic flux transport, three examined CCMC models display systematically different response to idealized2 h north then 2 h south interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz variation. The LFM model shows a depressed return convection and high loading rate during the growth phase as well as enhanced return convection and high unloading rate during the expansion phase, with the amount of loaded unloaded magnetotail flux and the growth phase duration being the closest to their observed empirical values during isolated substorms. Two other models exhibit drastically different behavior. In the BATS-R-US model the plasma sheet convection shows a smooth transition to the steady convection regime after the IMF southward turning. In the Open GGCM a weak plasma sheet convection has comparable intensities during both the growth phase and the following slow unloading phase. We also demonstrate potential technical problem in the publicly available simulations which is related to post processing interpolation and could affect the accuracy of magnetic field tracing and of other related procedures.

Gordeev, E.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Efficient and Robust Weighted Least-Squares Cell-Average Gradient Construction Methods for the Simulation of Scramjet Flows

The ability to solve the equations governing the hypersonic turbulent flow of a real gas on unstructured grids using a spatially-elliptic, 2nd-order accurate, cell-centered, finite-volume method has been recently implemented in the VULCAN-CFD code. The construction of cell-average gradients using a weighted linear least-squares method and the use of these gradients in the construction of the inviscid fluxes is the focus of this paper. A comparison of least-squares stencil construction methodologies is presented and approaches designed to minimize the number of cells used to augment/stabilize the least-squares stencil while preserving accuracy are explored. Due to our interest in hypersonic flow, a robust multidimensional cell-average gradient limiter procedure that is consistent with the stencil used to construct the cellaverage gradients is described. Canonical problems are computed to illustrate the challenges and investigate the accuracy, robustness and convergence behavior of the cell-average gradient methods on unstructured cell-centered finite-volume grids. Finally, thermally perfect, chemically frozen, Mach 7.8 turbulent flow of air through a scramjet engine flowpath is computed and compared with experimental data to demonstrate the robustness, accuracy and convergence behavior of the preferred gradient method for a realistic 3-D geometry on a non-hex-dominant grid.

White, Jeffery A.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Beyond Basic Drag in Interplanetary CME Modeling: Effects of Solar Wind Pileup and High-Speed Streams

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause severe space weather effects throughout our solar system. As a fast CME propagates through interplanetary space, it accumulates solar wind materials at its front. This pileup of materials, or CME-driven sheath, can be important in determining the geoeffectiveness of a CME. We take an existing arrival time model that includes expansion and deformation of the CME flux rope (ANTEATR; Kay & Gopalswamy, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JA025780; Kay & Nieves-Chinchilla, 2021a, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028911) and add a pileup procedure (PUP) as a physics-based approach to modeling the CME-driven sheath. ANTEATR-PUP solves the Rankine-Hugoniot equations for an oblique shock to determine the shock speed and sheath density, magnetic field, and temperature. The extra sheath mass affects the background drag calculation. Additionally, ANTEATR can now use any 1D profile for the background solar wind as opposed to the simple empirical models it previously relied upon. We present initial results from ANTEATR-PUP and compare with previous ANTEATR findings. Using results from an MHD simulation, we explore the effects of interactions with a static high-speed stream (HSS) on the CME's and sheath's interplanetary evolution. The drag forces essentially disappear while a CME remains within the HSS, but reappear stronger once the CME exits. The HSS-CME interaction produces the largest changes in the CME and sheath properties at 1 au when it occurs either close to the Sun near the inner simulation boundary at 0.1 au or right before the CME reaches 1 au. We estimate that these changes could significantly affect the geoeffectiveness.

C Kay↗

NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of Spatial and Temporal Radiation Exposures for ISS in the South Atlantic Anomaly

The International Space Station (ISS) living areas receive the preponderance of ionizing radiation exposure from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) and geomagnetically trapped protons. Practically all trapped proton exposure occurs when the ISS passes through the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region. The fact that this region is in proximity to a trapping mirror point indicates that the proton flux is highly directional. The inherent shielding provided by the ISS structure is represented by a recently-developed CAD model of the current 11-A configuration. Using modeled environment and configuration, trapped proton exposures have been analytically estimated at selected target points within the Service and Lab Modules. The results indicate that the directional flux may lead to substantially different exposure characteristics than the more common analyses that assume an isotropic environment. Additionally, predictive capability of the computational procedure should allow sensitive validation with corresponding on-board directional dosimeters.

Anderson, Brooke M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Rime ice accretion and its effect on airfoil performance

A methodology was developed to predict the growth of rime ice, and the resulting aerodynamic penalty on unprotected, subcritical, airfoil surfaces. The system of equations governing the trajectory of a water droplet in the airfoil flowfield is developed and a numerical solution is obtained to predict the mass flux of super cooled water droplets freezing on impact. A rime ice shape is predicted. The effect of time on the ice growth is modeled by a time-stepping procedure where the flowfield and droplet mass flux are updated periodically through the ice accretion process. Two similarity parameters, the trajectory similarity parameter and accumulation parameter, are found to govern the accretion of rime ice. In addition, an analytical solution is presented for Langmuir's classical modified inertia parameter. The aerodynamic evaluation of the effect of the ice accretion on airfoil performance is determined using an existing airfoil analysis code with empirical corrections. The change in maximum lift coefficient is found from an analysis of the new iced airfoil shape. The drag correction needed due to the severe surface roughness is formulated from existing iced airfoil and rough airfoil data. A small scale wind tunnel test was conducted to determine the change in airfoil performance due to a simulated rime ice shape.

Bragg, M. B.↗