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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Surface acoustic waves and lattice vibrations in two-dimensional Ti 3 ⁢C 2 ⁢𝑇 𝑥 (𝑇 =O, F) MXene films

We investigated surface acoustic wave (SAW) propagation and lattice vibrations in two-dimensional (2D) titanium carbide (Ti 3 ⁢C 2 ⁢𝑇 x ) MXene films as a function of surface termination and layer stacking, using atomistic simulations. We found that SAW propagation velocity is highly sensitive to both single-layer properties and interlayer bonding. Surface terminations significantly modulate wave behavior, with oxygen and fluorine terminations producing distinct effects on wave propagation, with oxygen-terminated monolayers exhibiting 20% higher wave speeds than fluorine counterparts due to strengthened intralayer bonds. Key observations include the transition from one to two layers causing wave speed variations, and the development of interlayer modes that generate more dispersed lattice vibrations. As the film layer thickness increases, SAW propagation becomes predominantly confined to the upper surface, with coherence of vibrational modes diminishing in multilayer structures. These findings suggest MXene terminations and layer stacking are crucial parameters for controlling SAW behavior, offering promising avenues for novel acoustic wave device applications.

2-dimensional systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

Equation of State and Thermometry of the 2D SU ( N ) Fermi-Hubbard Model

We characterize the equation of state (EoS) of the SU ( N > 2 ) Fermi-Hubbard Model (FHM) in a two-dimensional single-layer square optical lattice. We probe the density and the site occupation probabilities as functions of interaction strength and temperature for N = 3 , 4, and 6. Our measurements are used as a benchmark for state-of-the-art numerical methods including determinantal quantum Monte Carlo and numerical linked cluster expansion. By probing the density fluctuations, we compare temperatures determined in a model-independent way by fitting measurements to numerically calculated EoS results, making this a particularly interesting new step in the exploration and characterization of the SU ( N ) FHM. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Collective Modes in Multilayer Graphene/𝛼−RuCl 3 Heterostructures

Collective modes in multilayer graphene, such as plasmons and phonons, exhibit sensitivity to displacement fields and interlayer coupling, distinguishing them from their counterparts in single-layer graphene. Here, we engineer collective modes in charge-transfer heterostructures composed of multilayer graphene and 𝛼−RuCl 3 . In heterostructures with a single 𝛼−RuCl 3 interface, the charge transfer generates displacement fields up to 7 V/nm at the interface between 𝛼−RuCl 3 and the adjacent graphene layer—the highest value achieved through charge-transfer methods. As a result of the broken inversion symmetry, we discover enhanced nonlinear optical response and modified phonon selection rules. Conversely, we find that multilayer graphene sandwiched between two 𝛼−RuCl 3 flakes causes displacement fields to cancel. There, we achieve carrier densities as high as 8 ×10 13 cm −2 in multilayer graphene and restore the phonon selection rules to their unperturbed state. Meanwhile, we demonstrate that plasmonic properties derive from the depletion of multiple valence bands. As a result of the quasilinear band dispersion, these “Dirac multiband plasmons” are relatively unaffected by displacement fields. On the other hand, the inverted heterostructure sequence—two multilayer graphene sheets encapsulating 𝛼−RuCl 3 —activates significant alteration of the plasmons via interlayer plasmon-plasmon coupling. Hence, multilayer graphene and 𝛼−RuCl 3 heterostructures offer a gate-free platform for engineering collective modes derived from inversion symmetry and interlayer coupling.

Moore, Samuel L. [Columbia University, New York, N↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced two-dimensional ferromagnetism in van der Waals β-UTe 3 monolayers

The discovery of local-moment magnetism in van der Waals (vdW) semiconductors down to the single-layer limit has led to a paradigm shift in the understanding of two-dimensional (2D) magnets. The incorporation of strong electronic and magnetic correlations in 2D vdW metals remains a sought-after platform to enable control of emergent quantum phases and to achieve more theoretically tractable microscopic models of complex materials. To date, however, there is limited success in the discovery of such metallic vdW platforms, and f-electron monolayers remain out of reach. Here, we demonstrate that strongly correlated β–uranium tritelluride (β-UTe 3 ) can be exfoliated to the monolayer limit. Unexpectedly, β-UTe 3 remains ferromagnetic in this limit with an enhanced ordering temperature of 35 kelvin, a factor of two larger than its bulk counterpart. Our work establishes β-UTe 3 as a materials platform for investigating and modeling correlated behavior in the monolayer limit and opens numerous avenues for quantum control with, e.g., strain engineering.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Analysis of Anode and Cathode Structuring Effects on Charge and Discharge in Graphite|LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 Batteries

Structured electrodes (SEs) improve the rate capability of Lithium-ion batteries by engineering micrometer-scale electrolyte regions into the electrode, promoting rapid ionic transport. Prior research has focused on structuring one electrode (anode or cathode) with an analysis on either the charge or discharge performance. We present a holistic study using three-dimensional models to investigate the isolated effects of structuring either electrode and the combined effects of structuring both electrodes on the charge and discharge capacity of single-layer cells at 4 C and 6 C. Volumetric and gravimetric discharge energy density (Wh/L stack and Wh/kg stack ) and charge capacity (Ah/kg stack and Ah/L stack ) are evaluated for multi-layer pouch cell stacks. Pairing SE anodes with SE cathodes demonstrated improvements up to 15% in discharge Wh/kg stack and up to 33% in charge Ah/kg stack over a conventional cell; Energy required to charge per Ah/kg stack was improved by 13%–14%. SE cathodes paired with a conventional anode exhibited improvements of 0.3%–22% across all performance metrics evaluated. Conversely, pairing a SE anode with a conventional cathode demonstrated improved charge capacity up to 13% but showed a 2%–23% lower discharge energy density. The importance of aligning SEs in a cell from a performance and manufacturing perspective is also analyzed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nanosecond dual-wavelength irradiation effects on laser-induced damage in hafnia coatings

Nanosecond dual-wavelength laser-induced damage was investigated at 1064 nm (1ω) and 355 nm (3ω) on ion-beam-sputtered hafnia single-layer coatings. Single-wavelength 1-on-1 tests were first conducted to establish reference onset fluences. Dual-wavelength tests combined a primary beam with variable fluence at one wavelength and a background, secondary wavelength beam with fixed fluences set to several percentages of the corresponding onset fluence. When 1ω was used as the background irradiation, the perceived damage resistance at 3ω decreased gradually. Here, in contrast, 3ω background irradiation at as little as 10% of the onset fluence led to an ≈ 50% abrupt reduction in the perceived 1ω damage resistance, followed by modest changes upon further increases in 3ω background fluences. Scanning electron microscopy and conversion ratios indicate that 3ω light is the primary driver of damage onset in the case of dual wavelength irradiation. A two-step precursor generation and activation model reproduces the 3ω behavior (1ω as background), but not the strong initial 1ω reduction (3ω as background), suggesting additional 3ω-induced precursors that saturate at low fluence.

Optics and optical instruments↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated photonic structures for photon-mediated entanglement of trapped ions

Trapped atomic ions are natural candidates for quantum information processing and have the potential to realize or improve quantum computing, sensing, and networking. These applications often require the collection of individual photons emitted from ions into guided optical modes, in some cases for the production of entanglement between separated ions. Proof-of-principle demonstrations of such photon collection from trapped ions have been performed using high-numerical-aperture lenses or cavities and single-mode fibers, but integrated photonic elements in ion-trap structures offer advantages in scalability and manufacturability over traditional optics. In this paper we analyze structures monolithically fabricated with an ion trap for collecting ion-emitted photons, coupling them into waveguides, and manipulating them via interference. We calculate geometric limitations on collection efficiency for this scheme, simulate a single-layer grating that shows performance comparable to demonstrated free-space optics, and discuss practical fabrication and fidelity considerations. Based on this analysis, we conclude that integrated photonics can support scalable systems of trapped ions that can distribute quantum information via photon-mediated entanglement.

Knollmann, Felix W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Investigation of Thermal Properties of 2D Materials [Dissertation]

Studying the thermal conductivity of 2D materials is important due to the applications of 2D materials in fields such as thermal management, thermoelectricity, renewable energy, and sensors. As such, measurements of the thermal conductivity of these 2D materials become important to measure. Thermal conductivity is often difficult to measure for 2D materials due to their atomically thin nature and many experimental methods for doing so requiring contact with the sample, which can alter the thermal properties. A non-contact method for calculating the thermal conductivity of 2D materials supported on substrates in order to model the thermal conductivity of 2D materials for devices, is proposed and experimentally performed in this dissertation. The optothermal Raman technique is a useful non-contact diagnostic technique useful in determining the thermal conductivity of 2D materials. The optothermal Raman typically does not account for heat losses due to convection or radiation or substrate resistance, which are shown to be important factors to consider when developing an optothermal Raman model. Additionally, the calculation of the interfacial thermal conductance between the bottom surface of the sample and the top surface of the substrate, plays an important role in determining the final value of the thermal conductivity of a supported sample, and will yield differing results based on whether or not the conductance is calculated using an approach such as the Diffuse Mismatch Model (DMM) or calculated directly by varying the laser heating profile (usually done by changing the laser objective). This is shown to be the case for both graphene on Ni, graphene on Cu, and SnSe 2 on Cu. In addition to experimentally calculating the thermal conductivity of a 2D material with the optothermal Raman technique, the thermal conductivity of 2D materials can also be calculated using computational methods. The three-phonon method is a method which can be used to simulate phonon scattering processes and determine the thermal conductivity of semiconductors, wherein phonon scattering is the dominant mechanism which determines the thermal conductivity. The three-phonon method uses relaxation times for phonon scattering with other phonons, electrons, and other material system elements, such as isotopes or material defects, in order to create a single-mode relaxation time approximation (SMRTA), which is used to calculate the final value of the thermal conductivity. An important consideration when determining the thermal conductivity of a 2D material using this method is the device geometry, which is reflected in this work as the phonon-boundary scattering relaxation time. This inclusion is important along with the inclusion of phonon-electron scattering in accurately determining the thermal conductivity of a 2D material. In both the optothermal Raman experiments and the three-phonon method computations, strain is shown to have a demonstrable effect on the thermal conductivity of 2D materials. When a 1.1% strain was applied to the mechanical properties of SnSe, the three-phonon processes yielded a lower thermal conductivity than the no-strain case. For the optothermal Raman experiments, the strain induced in the Cu substrate and transferred to a single-layer graphene (SLG) sample yields a trend where the thermal conductivity of the SLG decreases with respect to strain applied. In the case where the interfacial thermal conductance was calculated directly, the conductance increased with respect to strain applied. This presents strain as a reliable and viable method for tuning the thermal properties of 2D materials for device applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

STILGAR: Subsurface Models for Graymont Pleasant Gap Mine

The detection, location, and monitoring of underground structures are of great importance to national and global security. Tunnels and voids generate seismic signatures detectable at the surface, but using non-invasive seismic data to image near-surface presents several challenges in real-world applications. In this report, we describe the use of a dense surface seismic deployment to generate subsurface models of the Graymont Pleasant Gap mine - a single-layer mine with a complex structure embedded in a high-velocity P-wave limestone bedrock. Our approach consists of three key methods. We use P-wave arrival times from local blast events to perform a tomography inversion with the tomoTD method, constructing a P-wave velocity model of the subsurface. We model the layer above the mine using Rayleigh wave ellipticity and inversion techniques. We leverage ongoing anthropogenic activities to identify and locate noise sources both on the surface and within the subsurface. With this integrated approach we aim to overcome the challenges and enhance our ability to non-invasively characterize underground structures, contributing to improved seismic monitoring techniques.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mesoscale Organization in Cumulus-Coupled Stratocumulus

Marine cloud systems cover a substantial portion of the world’s oceans. Most of these clouds form relatively close to the ocean surface, typically within one to two kilometers, a region referred to by meteorologists as the marine boundary layer. They are composed predominantly of liquid water, although ice particles can occur in mid- and high-latitude marine clouds during winter. In satellite imagery, these clouds appear bright against the darker ocean surface below, reflecting a large fraction of incoming sunlight back into space that would otherwise warm the ocean. Because marine boundary layer clouds cover such an extensive area of the ocean, they exert a significant influence on Earth’s overall transfer of solar energy absorbed by the surface and thermal energy emitted to space, a balance known as the planetary radiation budget. Marine boundary layer clouds are typically thin, and their formation and dissipation depend on a delicate balance between processes acting at the ocean surface below and the warm, dry air above. They are notoriously difficult to simulate accurately in weather forecast models, which often produce too few marine low clouds in midlatitudes and clouds in tropical regions that are excessively bright, meaning they reflect too much solar radiation. The marine boundary layer is frequently characterized by widespread overcast cloud cover that often transitions from a continuous, single-layer deck to more broken cloud fields toward the tropics. These transitions typically proceed through an intermediate stage in which shallow, broken clouds form beneath the overlying stratiform cloud deck. Once broken clouds develop below the overcast, they frequently self-organize into cloud clusters known as marine boundary layer convective complexes (MBLCCs), although the mechanisms governing the formation and organization of MBLCCs remain poorly understood. Accurately representing these transitions in long-range weather forecast models is essential because they influence the properties of air masses advected over the continental United States and Europe, and they become increasingly important for forecasts on seasonal and longer timescales. We employed two complementary approaches to investigate the processes controlling MBLCCs and their impact on marine cloud cover. Long-term observations from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Observatory provided a unique dataset that allowed us to characterize fundamental properties of MBLCCs, including their typical size and frequency of occurrence. These observations were combined with high-resolution numerical simulations performed on supercomputers to examine the evolution of MBLCCs during cold-air outbreaks over the ENA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Radiative Cooling Paints: Application on Warehouses and Integration with Phase Change Materials

Despite extensive research on radiative cooling (RC), researchers are still working to understand its best implementation strategy and potential benefits. Understanding this could be an instrumental part of reducing building energy costs and combating climate change. In this work, we introduce two concepts to achieve this goal and broaden the application of RC paints. While building energy simulations for RC are common, most studies focus on single-layer paints in residential settings. Limited research exists on warehouses, and no literature has conducted multi-climate zone analyses or included RC technologies with >90% reflectance. As RC technology advances in efficiency, versatility, and affordability, large-scale simulations across diverse climates are crucial, particularly for warehouses as a passive indoor temperature control solution. Here, a TRNSYS-modeled single-story warehouse assesses the energy impact of BaSO4-based RC paints. Another under-explored RC application is its integration with phase change materials (PCMs), which provide thermal regulation via latent heat storage. Though RC and PCMs have been combined by placing PCMs atop, beneath, or within RC layers, studies focus on either experiments or modeling, with no validation between the two. Here, we develop a simple RC+PCM experimental and modeling setup, placing RC paint atop an aluminum cell filled with a Rubitherm PCM.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Boundaries and Phase Estimation Using Airborne Radar and In Situ Measurements During the SOCRATES Campaign over Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES) was an aircraft-based campaign (15 January–26 February 2018) that deployed in situ probes and remote sensors to investigate low-level clouds over the Southern Ocean (SO). A novel methodology was developed to identify cloud boundaries and classify cloud phases in single-layer, low-level marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds below 3 km using the HIAPER Cloud Radar (HCR) and in situ measurements. The cloud base and top heights derived from HCR reflectivity, Doppler velocity, and spectrum width measurements agreed well with corresponding lidar-based and in situ estimates of cloud boundaries, with mean differences below 100 m. A liquid water content–reflectivity (LWC-Z) relationship, LWC = 0.70Z0.29, was derived to retrieve the LWC and liquid water path (LWP) from HCR profiles. The cloud phase was classified using HCR measurements, temperature, and LWP, yielding 40.6% liquid, 18.3% mixed-phase, and 5.1% ice samples, along with drizzle (29.1%), rain (3.2%), and snow (3.7%) for drizzling cloud cases. The classification algorithm demonstrates good consistency with established methods. This study provides a framework for the boundary and phase detection of MBL clouds, offering insights into SO cloud microphysics and supporting future efforts in satellite retrievals and climate model evaluation.

MBL clouds over Southern Ocean↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Droplet collection efficiencies inferred from satellite retrievals constrain effective radiative forcing of aerosol–cloud interactions

Abstract. Process-oriented observational constraints for the anthropogenic effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) are highly desirable because the uncertainty associated with ERFaci poses a significant challenge to climate prediction. The contoured frequency by optical depth diagram (CFODD) analysis supports the evaluation of model representation of cloud liquid-to-rain conversion processes because the slope of a CFODD, generated from joint MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-CloudSat cloud retrievals, provides an estimate of cloud droplet collection efficiency in single-layer warm liquid clouds. Here, we present an updated CFODD analysis as an observational constraint on the ERFaci due to warm rain processes and apply it to the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). A series of sensitivity experiments shows that E3SMv2 droplet collection efficiencies and ERFaci are highly sensitive to autoconversion, i.e., the rate of mass transfer from cloud liquid to rain, yielding a strong correlation between the CFODD slope and the shortwave component of ERFaci (ERFaciSW; Pearson's R=-0.91). E3SMv2's CFODD slope (0.20 ± 0.04) is in agreement with observations (0.20 ± 0.03). The strong sensitivity of ERFaciSW to the CFODD slope provides a useful constraint on highly uncertain warm rain processes, whereby ERFaciSW, constrained by MODIS-CloudSat, is estimated by calculating the intercept of the linear association between the ERFaciSW and the CFODD slopes, using the MODIS-CloudSat CFODD slope as a reference.

Beall, Charlotte M. (ORCID:0000000311370835)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Occurrence of seeding multi-layer clouds in the Arctic from ground-based observations

Studies of Arctic clouds often focus on low-level single-layer clouds (SLCs). Here, we use combined observations of soundings and cloud radar during the MOSAiC, ACSE, and AO2018 research cruises as well as from long-term observations at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard and Utqiagvik, Alaska to investigate the occurrence of SLCs and multi-layer clouds (MLCs) in the Arctic and to assess the rate of ice-crystal seeding in cold MLCs. MOSAiC observations show cloudy conditions in between 70 % and 90 % of sounding-radar cases. SLCs show occurrence rates of 30 % to 40 % with the highest value of 45 % during October. Cold MLCs are most abundant from November to June (40 % to 55 % of cases). Seeding occurs in about half to two thirds of the identified cold MLCs during MOSAiC for which the sub-saturated layer extends between 100 and 1000 m. The seeding rate increases by as much as 20 percentage points as the assumed size of the falling ice crystals is increased from 100 to 400 µm. The observations reveal a stable rate of cloud-free conditions of around 20 % over the covered latitude range. Cloud occurrence during MOSAiC and at Ny-Ålesund in July, when the geographical distance between observations was minimal, shows reasonable agreement. Comparisons of MOSAiC and other research cruises to the central Arctic also indicate consistent occurrence rates of different cloud types despite the likely effect of year-to-year variability. The comparison of data from ship campaigns and land sites suggests that the latter are not necessarily a good indicator of cloud occurrence in the high Arctic.

Achtert, Peggy [Leipzig Univ. (Germany); Meteorolo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Urban weather modeling using WRF: linking physical assumptions, code implementation, and observational needs

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model includes urban schemes that simulate the influence of urban surfaces on the atmosphere using parameterizations for flux, and radiative exchanges. Three core schemes – the Bulk urban parameterization, Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), and Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (MLUCM) – represent increasing levels of complexity. Although the parameterizations within these urban schemes are described in the literature, their specific implementation remains poorly documented, thus slowing down model development efforts. This manuscript provides a roadmap to the three urban schemes in WRF version 4.5.2, presenting equations using the same symbols as in the model code, along with references to code lines, and including graphics and explanations that connect the code to its physical foundations. Our thorough review of the urban parameterizations implemented in WRF version 4.5.2 highlighted a handful of parameters that may introduce discontinuities in simulations: (i) in the SLUCM, a 1 mm h −1 rain rate threshold is employed to switch between two minimum moisture availability parameterizations, thus impacting latent heat flux calculations; (ii) in the SLUCM a threshold is used to partition shortwave radiation into direct and diffuse components; (iii) in all three urban schemes, the bulk Richardson number is employed to select the similarity function, which influences the vertical distribution of heat and momentum. We also identified a highly simplified treatment of the radiative balance on roof surfaces. The implications of these simplifications can be assessed through targeted observations across relevant conditions, including varying precipitation rates, cloud cover, and transitions between stability regimes. Furthermore, the widespread application of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory in these urban schemes warrants model evaluation under highly stable and unstable conditions and in heterogeneous urban settings with variable land cover and building heights on scales finer than model resolution. To address these challenges, we offer guidance on observational strategies, emphasizing the need for multi-parametric measurements to capture potential compensating biases and multi-height measurements that align with the levels where quantities are diagnostic and prognosed in the model (i.e., the lowest atmospheric level of the WRF model). Finally, our inspection of the code revealed implementation bugs that have now been corrected in WRF versions 4.6.0 and 4.6.1. Sensitivity tests over the Atlanta urban area show that these corrections affect surface temperatures, underscoring the importance of performing rigorous documentation and verification of the implementation of parameterizations in model code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radar and lidar based cloud type product at the ARM ENA observatory

Following methods outlined in Remillard et al. (2012), we classify seven cloud types using radar reflectivity, best-estimated cloud base, and cloud-layer product from the Active Remotely Sensed Cloud Locations (ARSCL) product (Kollias et al. 2007). A cloud mask is created based on the detectable radar reflectivity (>-40 dBZ) combined with the best-estimated cloud base height. Each cloud object is analyzed individually as contiguous cloudy pixels, and its type is determined based on the cloud’s boundaries and duration. Focusing on marine boundary-layer clouds, low clouds are further classified into four types: shallow cumulus, broken stratocumulus (Sc) or cumulus clouds, single-layer Sc, and multi-layer Sc or Sc coupled with cumulus. The remaining three categories are middle clouds, high clouds, and deep convective clouds. For detailed definition of each cloud type, please refer to Zheng et al. (2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗