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At least 73 records · Page 4

Rupture Dynamics Simulations of Shallow Crustal Earthquakes on Reverse Slip Faults

The main goal of this study was to perform dynamic rupture simulations in order constrain the characterization of kinematic rupture models implemented in techniques for simulating strong ground motion for crustal earthquakes. First, we investigated the rupture process of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake by developing a dynamic rupture model on a reverse fault using a trial-and-error technique that produced a slip distribution and near-fault ground motion that matched the recorded ones. The simulations were performed in the frequency range 0-2 Hz, using a 3D staggered grid finite-difference method and a linear slip weakening friction law. Constrained by the observed slip distribution and consistent with dynamic rupture models, the derived kinematic rupture model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake contains areas with relatively large slip rate, representing strong motion generation areas, set against lower amplitude heterogeneous background slip, and a relatively low slip rate in the weak zone of the top-most crust (upper 3km). Second, we performed rupture dynamics modeling to constrain shallow slip characterization in rupture models for strike-slip crustal earthquakes. The objective was to establish general rules about the characterization of slip rate function and slip at shallow depths and in the strong motion generation areas (SMGAs). The simulations of spontaneous rupture were performed in the frequency range 0-2.0Hz, using a 3D staggered-grid finite-difference method and a layer over half-space 1D crustal velocity model with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 2.8 km/s. In order to account for changes in material ductility and reduction of stress drop, observed in the shallow crust (upper 3-5 km), and the transition from ductile state to brittle state in the upper seismogenic zone, in our stress models we included a shallow weak zone (<4km). In this zone the stress drop was set to zero at the free surface and gradually increased with depth, while the slip weakening distance was set to 75 cm at the free surface and decreased to 50 cm at the base of the weak zone. As in the case of reverse faulting during the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, from these computations we found a systematic change in the shape of the slip-rate function, from Kostrov-type in the deeper part of the fault to a more symmetric cosine-type in the upper few kilometers, near the free-surface. Moreover, the average slip duration in the weak zone, with respect to slip duration in the deeper parts of the fault, increases by at most a factor of 1.5. We found a systematic and gradual change in the shape of the slip-rate function from Kostrov-type in the asperity areas (SMGAs), to more symmetric cosine-type in the upper few km near the free-surface, on the long period motion generation area (LMGA). The effective rise time in the LMGA, with respect to that in the SMGAs, increases by at most a factor of 2. Effective rise time is the time difference between the time at which the slip rate drops to a level that is equal to 25% of its peak and the onset time of the signal. In addition, the slip in the LMGA located above the SMGAs is almost the same as the one in the SMGAs, and about 1.5 times larger than the average slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Field Data Analysis and Modeling of Drillstring Vibrations to Identify Inefficiency in Deep Geothermal Drilling

One challenge that hinders efficient drilling and causes downhole tool failures is severe drillstring vibrations. The objective of this paper is to identify the root cause of drillstring vibrations in deep geothermal wells and investigate their effect on drilling performance using data analytics and vibration modeling. A near-bit sub was utilized to collect vibration data, where the burst data was used to obtain the drillstring torsional natural frequency. The data showed that the highest lateral acceleration and stick-slip severities (SSS) occur at the higher mechanical specific energy (MSE) range, while the low vibration levels were encountered in the optimum range of the MSE curve. The elevated SSS levels consistently occur at the low to mid-range of applied RPM and the highest sonic velocity. Additionally, the lateral acceleration levels are higher at the low to mid-range of the applied RPM. The effect of drillstring vibration on drilling performance was recognized by the presented MSE analysis.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Investigating the relationship between radial pre-stress magnitude and ballistic projectile dwell in heavy confined ceramic targets

A series of bare silicon carbide ceramic armour disks were manufactured with high-strength steel containment to induce varying magnitudes of radial pre-stress. The induced radial stresses, ranging from 0 to 900 MPa, were measured via neutron diffraction and verified by comparison with numerical calculations. Four targets of each configuration, referred to as slip-fit, moderate pre-stress, and high pre-stress, were subject to ballistic testing with hemispherical-nose, tungsten heavy alloy long rod projectiles to determine the interface defeat transition velocity. In-situ diagnostics were unsuccessful in aiding the identification of interface defeat, necessitating a reliance on post-mortem assessment. A transition velocity of approx. 1000 m/s was identified for the unstressed target, increasing to approx. 1200 m/s for the pre-stressed configurations. No performance effect was discernible between the moderate (372 MPa) and high (899 MPa) pre-stress configurations, suggesting that an optimal performance may be achieved for lower pre-stress levels (i.e., <372 MPa). Additionally, the test results were compared with four semi-analytical predictions of interface defeat performance and good agreement was found, albeit with significant range in the model predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Weak boundary conditions for Lagrangian shock hydrodynamics: A high-order finite element implementation on curved boundaries

Here, we propose a new Nitsche-type approach for weak enforcement of normal velocity boundary conditions for a Lagrangian discretization of the compressible shock-hydrodynamics equations using high-order finite elements on curved boundaries. Specifically, the variational formulation is appropriately modified to enforce free-slip wall boundary conditions, without perturbing the structure of the function spaces used to represent the solution, with a considerable simplification with respect to traditional approaches. Total energy is conserved and the resulting mass matrices are constant in time. The robustness and accuracy of the proposed method are validated with an extensive set of tests involving nontrivial curved boundaries.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Seismic anisotropy, dominant slip systems and phase transitions in the lowermost mantle

SUMMARY The presence of seismic anisotropy at the base of the Earth's mantle is well established, but there is no consensus on the deformation mechanisms in lower mantle minerals that could explain it. Strong anisotropy in magnesium post-perovskite (pPv) has been invoked, but different studies disagree on the dominant slip systems at play. Here, we aim to further constrain this by implementing the most recent results from atomistic models and high-pressure deformation experiments, coupled with a realistic composition and a 3-D geodynamic model, to compare the resulting deformation-induced anisotropy with seismic observations of the lowermost mantle. We account for forward and reverse phase transitions from bridgmanite (Pv) to pPv. We find that pPv with either dominant (001) or (010) slip can both explain the seismically observed anisotropy in colder regions where downwellings turn to horizontal flow, but only a model with dominant (001) slip matches seismic observations at the root of hotter large-scale upwellings. Allowing for partial melt does not change these conclusions, while it significantly increases the strength of anisotropy and reduces shear and compressional velocities at the base of upwellings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A spall and diffraction study of nanosecond pressure release across the iron ε-α phase boundary

The extreme response of polycrystalline iron at high pressures and high strain rates is revealed by means of high-power laser pulses. The compression portion of the pulse coupled with x-ray diffraction identifies the expected body-centered cubic (α) to hexagonal close packed (ε) displacive transformation. Upon release, observation shows that the complete reverse transformation takes approximately 8 ns and that the structure returns to its initial microstructural configuration, in a reversible transformation path. This is in good agreement with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations which predict an inverse dependence between transformation time and strain rate. The grain size is reduced from μm to nm range during compression and begins increasing back to the original grain size on decompression. The kinetics of the transition is dictated by heterogenous nucleation as it follows the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov equation with the appropriate time exponent of ~1. This is confirmed by MD simulations which also identify profuse twinning and dislocation generation. Here, the tensile pulse generated upon reflection at the free surface is captured by time-resolved free surface velocity measurements from which a peak tensile stress of 7 GPa is obtained, in stark contrast with its quasi-static value of ~200 MPa. At these strain rates, the strength of grain interiors, which is determined by twinning and slip exceeds the strength of the boundaries, and failure initiates preferentially in the latter.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A strainmeter array as the fulcrum of novel observatory sites along the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory

Fault slip is a complex natural phenomenon involving multiple spatiotemporal scales from seconds to days to weeks. To understand the physical and chemical processes responsible for the full fault slip spectrum, a multidisciplinary approach is highly recommended. The Near Fault Observatories (NFOs) aim at providing high-precision and spatiotemporally dense multidisciplinary near-fault data, enabling the generation of new original observations and innovative scientific products. The Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory is a permanent monitoring infrastructure established around the Alto Tiberina fault (ATF), a 60 km long low-angle normal fault (mean dip 20°), located along a sector of the Northern Apennines (central Italy) undergoing an extension at a rate of about 3 mm yr –1 . The presence of repeating earthquakes on the ATF and a steep gradient in crustal velocities measured across the ATF by GNSS stations suggest large and deep (5–12 km) portions of the ATF undergoing aseismic creep. Both laboratory and theoretical studies indicate that any given patch of a fault can creep, nucleate slow earthquakes, and host large earthquakes, as also documented in nature for certain ruptures (e.g., Iquique in 2014, Tōhoku in 2011, and Parkfield in 2004). Nonetheless, how a fault patch switches from one mode of slip to another, as well as the interaction between creep, slow slip, and regular earthquakes, is still poorly documented by near-field observation. With the strainmeter array along the Alto Tiberina fault system (STAR) project, we build a series of six geophysical observatory sites consisting of 80–160 m deep vertical boreholes instrumented with strainmeters and seismometers as well as meteorological and GNSS antennas and additional seismometers at the surface. By covering the portions of the ATF that exhibits repeated earthquakes at shallow depth (above 4 km) with these new observatory sites, we aim to collect unique open-access data to answer fundamental questions about the relationship between creep, slow slip, dynamic earthquake rupture, and tectonic faulting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Precursory Off-Fault Deformation in Restraining and Releasing Step Overs: Insights From Discrete Element Method Models

Accelerating geophysical activity is detected preceding some, but not all, large earthquakes. This observation may indicate that no precursors occur before some earthquakes, or that the instrumentation lacks the required sensitivity. Here, to aid crustal monitoring efforts, we use discrete element method models to identify the locations and styles of deformation that may provide useful information about approaching fault reactivation. We model the reactivation of two healed rough faults in a variety of step over configurations, embedded in a host rock with varying amounts of damage subject to shear velocity loading parallel to the faults. Both the fault geometry and ratio of fault to host rock strength control the amount of off-fault deformation. Consistent with field observations, models with larger steps and more preexisting host rock damage produce higher amounts of off-fault deformation. We assess the size of the continuous regions of high velocities and strains to compare the value of the precursory information of each velocity and strain component. Comparing the three components of the velocity vector suggests that the fault-parallel velocity produces the largest and most temporally continuous regions of elevated velocity. The size of these regions increases toward failure, indicating the usefulness of tracking this component. Comparing the volumetric and shear components of the three-dimensional strain tensor suggests that during most of the interseismic period, the shear strain provides more information about approaching fault slip than the volumetric strain. However, in the days and months preceding fault reactivation, both the shear and volumetric strains provide similarly valuable information.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An enrichment wall modeling framework for spectral element methods

In the present work, a first-of-its-kind enrichment wall-model is developed within the spectral element method (SEM) framework for large-eddy simulations (LES) of wall-bounded turbulent flows. The method augments the polynomial solution in the wall-adjacent elements with an analytical law-of-the-wall enrichment function representing the mean velocity near the wall. In the solution representation, this enrichment function captures the large gradients in the boundary layer, which allows the polynomial modes to represent the turbulent fluctuations. The enriched solution is able to resolve the shear stress at the wall without any modification to the no-slip wall boundary conditions, which allows for greater accuracy in the near-wall region compared to traditional methods. The enrichment wall modeling approach is implemented in a high-order SEM computational fluid dynamics solver, Nek5000, and its performance is assessed in turbulent channel flow wall-modeled LES for a range of Reynolds numbers. It is demonstrated that the enrichment wall-model improves solution accuracy on under-resolved near-wall grids as compared to traditional shear stress wall-models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Optimal Iteration and its Application to Some Problems in Aerosol Science and Particle Dynamics

Iteration is a common technique for finding the solutions to an equation. It is easy to code, straightforward to apply, readily comprehensible, and can be run indefinitely until a given accuracy is attained. However, for a given equation there are multiple iteration schemes that can be employed, with different convergence rates, and there is no obvious way to determine a priori which is best. In this work, the convergence rates of different approaches to simple iteration schemes are analyzed and the new technique of optimal iteration, which determines the scheme that maximizes the convergence rate, is introduced and illustrated by its application to several common problems in aerosol and particle dynamics. The first application is determination of the mobility diameter of an aerosol particle from the measured mobility, which is complicated by the nonlinearity of the Cunningham correction. This same equation occurs in the determination of the diameter of multiply-charged particles with the same mobility diameter as singly-charged particles. The next application is determination of the aerodynamic diameter from the mobility diameter for situations in which the Cunningham correction must be taken into account. The final two applications are determination of the terminal velocity from the diameter, and of the diameter from the terminal velocity, for particles sufficiently large that Stokes’ Law does not apply. The technique is easy to apply and can be employed in a number of situations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coupled Experimental and High-Temperature Discrete-Element Method Modeling Studies of Aluminosilicate Particle Handling in Concentrated Solar Power Environments

Chemically inert, aluminosilicate based particles have been investigated as both a thermal transport and sensible energy storage medium for concentrated solar power facilities. These particles will experience a wide range of operating temperatures (300-1000 K) and handling conditions (dense to dilute falling particle curtains, dense granular flows, or dense structures), requiring specially-designed and optimized infrastructures. The relative influence of collisional and frictional interactions between particles varies based on temperature-dependent particulate properties and greatly impacts the bulk, granular flow behavior. These underlying physics are captured using discrete element method modeling tools. However, this modeling method is computationally expensive as each particle position and interaction is tracked during the simulation. These modeling methods are further complicated by introducing temperature-dependent particle properties, high-temperature radiative exchange, and directional irradiation sources experienced by granular flows in concentrated solar power environments. Coupled experimental and numerical studies of aluminosilicate particles in rotary kilns and dense particle curtains were performed for bulk temperatures up to 1073 K. The three particle types investigated included Carbobead HSP 30 /60, Carbobead CP 30/60, and Granusil 4030. Temperature, spatial, and velocity profile data were extracted from experimental runs using embedded K-type thermocouple probes and particle image velocimetry techniques. Experimental and numerical studies were compared using spatial temperature profiles, velocity fields, and shape profiles of the bulk, granular flows. Numerical models were developed using commercially available discrete element method modeling software, Aspherix®. Existing Aspherix® functionality was expanded by introducing coupled radiative exchange modeling tools. The laboratory-scale rotary kiln was developed to investigate the steady-state heat and mass transfer performance of aluminosilicate particles based on particle type, bulk handling temperature, and wall roughness. The rotational speed of the rotary kiln was varied to control the relative impact of collisional and frictional effects upon the granular flow behavior. Heat and mass transfer performance was categorized based on the Froude number and the observed flow regimes of slipping, rolling, cascading, and centrifuging. Coupled discrete element method modeling studies were used to evaluate the effects of temperature-dependent, particulate mechanical properties upon bulk flow behavior and upon the relative effects of radiative, advective, and/or conductive heat transfer. A high-temperature (< 1073 K) falling particle curtain was similarly fabricated to investigate the heat and mass transfer performance of aluminosilicate particles in particle handling situations dominated by inter-particle collisions. The impact of particle type, flow preheat temperatures (< 1073K), and bulk mass flow rates were investigated upon the particle curtain shape, temperature, and velocity profiles. Coupled discrete element method modeling studies were performed to evaluate the varying impact of temperature-dependent, particulate mechanical properties on the bulk flow behavior and the temperature profile of the particle curtain.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Ground-motions site and event specificity: Insights from assessing a suite of simulated ground motions in the San Francisco Bay Area

This article presents the results of a research that is part of a larger collaborative effort between the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, funded by the US Department of Energy Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security and Emergency Response. The main objective of this study is to assess a suite of near and far-field simulated ground motions obtained from 20 realizations of an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, California USA, and inform the selection of rupture simulation parameters leading to strong motions. To this aim, comparisons are conducted with NGA-W2 and directivity ground-motion models and a selected population of records. An archetypal steel moment-resisting frame is utilized to assess infrastructure response distributions. The analyses carried out for each simulated event and subdomain with consistent properties in terms of shallow shear-wave velocity proved to be instrumental for better interpreting the differences between simulated motions and empirical models. The main reasons identified for variances between simulations and empirical relationships included (1) directivity effects fully captured by the simulations across the full breadth of rupture models; (2) site vicinity to ruptures that incorporate large-slip patches, particularly if these are in the forward-directivity direction; and (3) presence of geologic structures that can “trap” seismic waves and produce ground motions with large amplitude and long signal duration. The analyses carried out in this work provide a path for interpreting ground-motion site and event specificity obtained from a suite of physics-based simulations, differing only in the rupture model characterization, to inform the selection of simulation scenarios for site-specific engineering analyses under strong excitations. Evidence from this work points to the possibility that current hazard models may underestimate ground-motion intensities in areas where the combined effect of directivity and site conditions results in large ground-motion amplitudes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamic Rupture Modeling of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan Earthquake Using 3DFinite Element Method. Sensitivity Analysis of Slip Rate Function to Model Parameters of Crustal Weak-Zone

The main objective of this study was the dynamic rupture modeling of the M7.3 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. The purpose of the numerical modeling was two folded. First, using models of rupture dynamics, derive kinematic rupture characteristics, including spatial and temporal variations of the slip rate time history and rupture speed, in the long-period ground motion generation area (LMGA), strong motion generation areas (SMGAs) and background fault area for a thrust shallow rupture. Second, investigate the sensitivity of source time function characteristics in the LMGA and SMGA areas to model parameterization of low-velocity weak zone, such as thickness and shear wave velocity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Shock compression of molybdenum single crystals to 110 GPa: Elastic–plastic deformation and crystal anisotropy

To explore the role of crystal anisotropy on the elastic-plastic deformation of BCC single crystals at high shock stresses, molybdenum (Mo) single crystals were shock compressed along [100], [111], and [110] orientations at elastic impact stresses between 20 and 110 GPa. Laser interferometry was used to measure shock wave velocities and particle velocity histories. Along the [100] and [111] orientations, elastic-plastic waves (two wave structure) were observed up to 110 GPa. Along the [110] orientation, the two wave structure was observed only up to 90 GPa. The measured elastic wave amplitudes were analyzed to determine crystal anisotropy effects, impact stress dependence, and the activated slip systems on the Hugoniot elastic limit. The results from our work have provided insight into the role of crystal anisotropy on the elastic-plastic deformation under shock compression at high stresses.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Utah FORGE 2439: A Multi-Component Approach to Characterizing In-Situ Stress

Core-based in-situ stress estimation, Triaxial Ultrasonic Velocity (labTUV) data, and Deformation Rate Analysis (DRA) data for Utah FORGE well 16A(78)-32 using triaxial ultrasonic velocity and deformation rate analysis. Report documenting a multi-component approach to characterizing in-situ stress at the U.S. DOE FORGE EGS site: laboratory, modeling and field measurement. Core-based methods for in-situ stress estimation were applied using samples from 5 intervals within the Utah FORGE 16A(78)-32 well. At three of these locations, Triaxial Ultrasonic Velocity (labTUV) tests were performed, resulting in experimentally-determined relationships between wave velocities and stresses. Non-monotonic increase in the velocity-stress relationships are inferred provide evidence of stress history and are therefore used to estimate in-situ stress magnitudes. Additionally, Deformation Rate Analysis (DRA) tests were run on core plugs from various orientations at each of the 5 sampling locations. These, too, provide evidence of stress history based on stress-strain behavior. A novel Weight of Evidence (WoE) method was developed as a means of synthesizing in-situ stress evidence from these two types of tests. Results indicate the minimum horizontal stress gradient ranges from 0.58 psi/ft to 0.69 psi/ft, with 4 of the 5 values between 0.66 psi/ft and 0.69 psi/ft. The vertical stress gradient ranges from 1.05 psi/ft to 1.12 psi/ft, with 4 of the 5 zones given results between 1.09 psi/ft and 1.12 psi/ft. The maximum horizontal stress gradient ranges from 0.98 psi/ft to 1.34 psi/ft, with 4 of the 5 zones falling between 0.98 psi/ft and 1.24 psi/ft. The stress regime thus appears to be on the edge between normal faulting and strike-slip faulting, potentially flipping back and forth between the two regimes due to variability of rock properties, structures such as faults, and/or thermal anomalies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Methanol mixing controlled combustion process enabled by methanol dehydration to dimethyl ether

This work demonstrates an initial proof-of-concept approach for operating a compression ignition off-road and marine relevant engine using neat methanol. The approach utilizes mixing controlled compression ignition (MCCI) of methanol that is enabled by a homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) pre-burn of premixed dimethyl ether (DME). Although two fuels are used, this work explores and evaluates the opportunity and performance to generate the premixed fuel via. methanol catalytic dehydration over an alumina catalyst at engine relevant temperatures, pressures, and space velocities. Conversion purity and species output results from catalytic dehydration bench flow reactor studies were coupled with single cylinder experiments of the characterized output species for pre-burn HCCI performance. Subsequent initial methanol MCCI performance is also evaluated and compared relative to conventional diesel combustion. The detailed flow reactor results show that the catalytic dehydration conversion efficiency of methanol to DME is a function of system pressure, temperature, and space velocity. The engine results demonstrate that a 100% conversion of methanol to DME is not required for successful pre-burn HCCI, and the water formed during the dehydration process does not need to be removed to achieve the desired HCCI event from this pre-burn mixture. Subsequent methanol MCCI combustion results show that the level of methanol slip in the dehydration process affects the pre-burn HCCI phasing, low temperature heat release process, and magnitude of energy released, all of which can dictate the available window for direct injection of methanol for MCCI combustion.

Jatana, Gurneesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000288903225)↗

Aerosol Particle Deposition on a Spent Nuclear Fuel Assembly Spacer Grid

The flow and particle deposition patterns on surfaces in an idealized spacer grid for a 17x17 pressurized water reactor (PWR) assembly in a spent fuel canister are modeled using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with laminar flow. The effects of gravitational settling, non-Stokesian flow, and particle slip are first rigorously analyzed. From the analysis, non-Stokesian effects and slip may be neglected for the particle sizes and conditions expected in a canister. For particles that do not settle out, a swirling flow pattern at the corners of a spacer grid channel directs particles to the leeward side of the flow vanes where much of the deposition occurs. Particle deposition increases with increasing particle diameter. Deposition also increases with decreasing flow velocity as this provides more time for particles to settle and deposit on the leeward side of the flow vanes. The fraction of particles that are transmitted through a spacer grid is determined as a function of inlet gas velocity and particle diameter by running the CFD calculation for each set of conditions and for each particle diameter. Curve fits of the transmission curve as a function of particle diameter for a specified spacer grid and flow velocity are applied to a lognormal particle mass density function for the inlet particles. The resulting mass density function and aerosol mass fraction that passes through the spacer grid can be determined analytically without resorting to numerical iteration. A sample calculation of the analytical solution is demonstrated for a lognormal particle mass density function.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Acoustic Energy Release During the Laboratory Seismic Cycle: Insights on Laboratory Earthquake Precursors and Prediction

Abstract Machine learning can predict the timing and magnitude of laboratory earthquakes using statistics of acoustic emissions. The evolution of acoustic energy is critical for lab earthquake prediction; however, the connections between acoustic energy and fault zone processes leading to failure are poorly understood. Here, we document in detail the temporal evolution of acoustic energy during the laboratory seismic cycle. We report on friction experiments for a range of shearing velocities, normal stresses, and granular particle sizes. Acoustic emission data are recorded continuously throughout shear using broadband piezo‐ceramic sensors. The coseismic acoustic energy release scales directly with stress drop and is consistent with concepts of frictional contact mechanics and time‐dependent fault healing. Experiments conducted with larger grains (10.5 μm) show that the temporal evolution of acoustic energy scales directly with fault slip rate. In particular, the acoustic energy is low when the fault is locked and increases to a maximum during coseismic failure. Data from traditional slide‐hold‐slide friction tests confirm that acoustic energy release is closely linked to fault slip rate. Furthermore, variations in the true contact area of fault zone particles play a key role in the generation of acoustic energy. Our data show that acoustic radiation is related primarily to breaking/sliding of frictional contact junctions, which suggests that machine learning‐based laboratory earthquake prediction derives from frictional weakening processes that begin very early in the seismic cycle and well before macroscopic failure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗