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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the Impact of Riparian Hollows on River Corridor Nitrogen Exports

Recent studies in snowmelt-dominated catchments have documented changes in nitrogen (N) retention over time, such as declines in watershed exports of N, though there is a limited understanding of the controlling processes driving these trends. Working in the mountainous headwater East River Colorado watershed, we explored the effects of riparian hollows as N-cycling hotspots and as important small-scale controls on observed watershed trends. Using a modeling-based approach informed by remote sensing and in situ observations, we simulated the N-retention capacity of riparian hollows with seasonal and yearly hydrobiogeochemical perturbations imposed as drivers. We then implemented a scaling approach to quantify the relative contribution of riparian hollows to the total river corridor N budget. We found that riparian hollows primarily serve as N sinks, with N-transformation rates significantly limited by periods of enhanced groundwater upwelling and promoted at the onset of rainfall events. Given these observed hydrologic controls, we expect that the nitrate ( NO 3 - ) sink capacity of riparian hollows will increase in magnitude with future climatic perturbations, specifically the shift to more frequent rainfall events and fewer snowmelt events, as projected for many mountainous headwater catchments. Our current estimates suggest that while riparian hollows provision ~5–20% of NO 3 - to the river network, they functionally act as inhibitors to upland NO 3 - reaching the stream. Our work linking transient hydrological conditions to numerical biogeochemical simulations is an important step in assessing N-retaining features relative to the watershed N budget and better understanding the role of small-scale features within watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shrubs Strongly Influence Snow Properties in Two Subarctic Watersheds

Understanding changes in snow distribution in permafrost ecosystems is fundamental to predicting their response to future climate change. The expansion of tall shrubs into tundra ecosystems can trap snow and insulate permafrost ecosystems during the winter, but the overall insulation effect is dependent upon many ecosystem properties. To study shrub–snow–ground interactions, small temperature sensors were deployed at two research sites on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska, USA, during the 2019–2020 winter. Snow temperatures were used to extrapolate multiple metrics, including freezing n-factors, the snow insulation effect, snow cover duration, and the length of the snowmelt period. Statistical and spatial analysis showed that shrub patches were a dominant control on all snow metrics. Within shrub patches, average ground temperatures were 2.1°C warmer, snow persisted 50 days longer, snow insulation was double, and a longer, later spring snowmelt period occurred compared to nonshrubby areas. Site-level differences contributed relatively little to variation in snow metrics, indicating that shrub presence is an overarching driver of snow–ground interactions at the locations examined. Shrub expansion, which is anticipated under climate change, will strongly impact future permafrost distribution and Arctic energy, water, and carbon cycles through snow–shrub–ground feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Storylines for the 1997 New Year’s Flood: The role of watershed antecedent conditions and future warming in shaping discharge in the Truckee River watershed

The 1997 New Year’s flood was among the most devastating floods in the Truckee River watershed located in western Nevada. This event resulted from complex interactions of flood drivers, such as extreme precipitation, wet antecedent watershed conditions, warm temperatures and rapid snowmelt. We leveraged simulated forcings from the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) and a process-based hydrological model to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood for the Truckee River watershed across four climate warming levels ranging from the current temperatures to + 4° C. For each scenario, we conducted ensemble simulations with the same forcing but with 100 different seasonal watershed antecedent conditions, which were randomly sampled from long-term hydrological simulations. The results show that the 1997 New Year’s flood can be reproduced or exceeded consistently only when the antecedent watershed conditions are wet, specifically when streamflows are above the 75th percentile of the climatological value. There is negligible change in ensemble mean peakflows for Truckee River near Reno; however, there are increases of 18% and 14% under the warming levels of + 3° C and + 4° C, respectively. The increases in peakflows under future climate warming are attributed to wetter antecedent watershed conditions and enhanced snowmelt. Furthermore, the largest increases in peakflows occur at small, high-elevation headwater basins along the Sierra Nevada crest. This study highlights that changes in extreme flood events will result from the complex interplay of multiple flood drivers. It also demonstrates the potential of storyline approaches to analyze future realizations of these extreme events under different climate scenarios.

Climate change impact study↗
DOE OSTI2022

Brown Carbon Fuel and Emission Source Attributions to Global Snow Darkening Effect

Snow and ice albedo reduction due to deposition of absorbing particles (i.e., snow darkening effect (SDE)) warms the Earth system and is largely attributed to black carbon (BC) and dust. Absorbing organic aerosol (BrC) also contributes to SDE but has received less attention due to uncertainty and challenges in model representation. This work incorporates the SDE of absorbing organic aerosol (BrC) from biomass burning and biofuel sources into the Snow Ice and Aerosol Radiative (SNICAR) model within a variant of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Additionally, 12 different emission regions of BrC and BC from biomass burning and biofuel sources are tagged to quantify the relative contribution to global and regional SDE. BrC global SDE (0.021–0.056 Wm -2 ) is larger than other model estimates, corresponding to 37%–98% of the SDE from BC. When compared to observations, BrC simulations have a range in median bias (-2.5% to +21%), with better agreement in the simulations that include BrC photochemical bleaching. The largest relative contributions to global BrC SDE are traced to Northern Asia (23%–31%), Southeast Asia (16%–21%), and South Africa (13%–17%). Transport from Southeast Asia contributes nearly half of the regional BrC SDE in Antarctica (0.084–0.3 Wm -2 ), which is the largest regional input to global BrC SDE. Lower latitude BrC SDE is correlated with snowmelt, in-snow BrC concentrations, and snow cover fraction, while polar BrC SDE is correlated with surface insolation and snowmelt. This indicates the importance of in-snow processes and snow feedbacks on modeled BrC SDE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recreating the California New Year's Flood Event of 1997 in a Regionally Refined Earth System Model

Abstract The 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme event was driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing widespread inundation in the Sacramento Valley. This study recreates the 1997 flood using the Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM‐E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding the processes causing extreme events informs practical efforts to anticipate and prepare for such events in the future, and also provides a rich context to evaluate model skill in representing extremes. Three California‐focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement of 14 km down to 3.5 km, and six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 December 1996 at 12Z, are assessed for their ability to recreate the 1997 flood. Planetary to synoptic scale atmospheric circulations and integrated vapor transport are weakly influenced by horizontal resolution refinement over California. Topography and mesoscale circulations, such as the Sierra barrier jet, are better represented at finer horizontal resolutions resulting in better estimates of storm total precipitation and storm duration snowpack changes. Traditional time‐series and causal analysis frameworks are used to examine runoff sensitivities state‐wide and above major reservoirs. These frameworks show that horizontal resolution plays a more prominent role in shaping reservoir inflows, namely the magnitude and time‐series shape, than forecast lead time, 2‐to‐4 days prior to the 1997 flood onset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrology Outweighs Temperature in Driving Production and Export of Dissolved Carbon in a Snowy Mountain Catchment

Abstract Terrestrial production and export of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (DOC and DIC) to streams depends on water flow and biogeochemical processes in and beneath soils. Yet, understanding of these processes in a rapidly changing climate is limited. Using the watershed‐scale reactive‐transport model BioRT‐HBV and stream data from a snow‐dominated catchment in the Rockies, we show deeper groundwater flow averaged about 20% of annual discharge, rising to ∼35% in drier years. DOC and DIC production and export peaked during snowmelt and wet years, driven more by hydrology than temperature. DOC was primarily produced in shallow soils (1.94 ± 1.45 gC/m 2 /year), stored via sorption, and flushed out during snowmelt. Some DOC was recharged to and further consumed in the deeper subsurface via respiration (−0.27 ± 0.02 gC/m 2 /year), therefore reducing concentrations in deeper groundwater and stream DOC concentrations at low discharge. Consequently, DOC was primarily exported from the shallow zone (1.62 ± 0.96 gC/m 2 /year, compared to 0.12 ± 0.02 gC/m 2 /year from the deeper zone). DIC was produced in both zones but at higher rates in shallow soils (1.34 ± 1.00 gC/m 2 /year) than in the deep subsurface (0.36 ± 0.02 gC/m 2 /year). Deep respiration elevated DIC concentrations in the deep zone and stream DIC concentrations at low discharge. In other words, deep respiration is responsible for the commonly‐observed increasing DOC concentrations (flushing) and decreasing DIC concentrations (dilution) with increasing discharge. DIC export from the shallow zone was ~66% of annual export but can drop to ∼53% in drier years. Numerical experiments suggest lower carbon production and export in a warmer, drier future, and a higher proportion from deeper flow and respiration processes. These results underscore the often‐overlooked but growing importance of deeper processes in a warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming

Abstract Light-absorbing particles (LAP) deposited on seasonal snowpack can result in snow darkening, earlier snowmelt, and regional climate change. However, their future evolution and contributions to snowpack change relative to global warming remain unclear. Here, using Earth System Model simulations, we project significantly reduced black carbon deposition by 2081-2100, which reduces the December-May average LAP-induced radiative forcing in snow over the Northern Hemisphere from 1.3 Wm −2 during 1995-2014 to 0.65 (SSP126) and 0.49 (SSP585) Wm −2 . We quantify separately the contributions of climate change and LAP evolution on future snowpack and demonstrate that projected LAP changes in snow over the Tibetan Plateau will alleviate future snowpack loss due to climate change by 52.1 ± 8.0% and 8.0 ± 1.1% at the end of the century for the two scenarios, mainly due to reduced black carbon contamination. Our findings highlight a cleaner snow future and its benefits for future water supply from snowmelt especially under the sustainable development pathway of SSP126.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dust dominates high-altitude snow darkening and melt over high-mountain Asia

Westerly-driven, long-range transportation of dust particles in elevated aerosol layers (EALs) is a persistent phenomenon during spring and summer over the Indian subcontinent. During the snow accumulation season, EALs transport substantial dust to the snow-covered slopes of high-mountain Asia (HMA). Here we use multiple satellite-based estimates to demonstrate a robust physical association between the EALs and dust-induced snow darkening over HMA. Results from a fully-coupled atmosphere-chemistry-snow model support these observations, revealing a signature of increasing dust-induced snow darkening with surface elevation over HMA that peaks near 4500 m. Moreover, the influence of dust on snow darkening is greater than that of black carbon above 4000 m. Our findings suggest a discernable role of dust in the observed spatial heterogeneity of snowmelt and snowline trends over HMA and highlight an increasing contribution of dust to snowmelt as the snowline rises with warming.

Elevated aerosol layers (EAL), Light absorbing par↗
DOE OSTI2022

Asymmetric emergence of low-to-no snow in the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera

Abstract Societies and ecosystems within and downstream of mountains rely on seasonal snowmelt to satisfy their water demands. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced mountain snowpacks worldwide, altering snowmelt magnitude and timing. Here the global warming level leading to widespread and persistent mountain snowpack decline, termed low-to-no snow, is estimated for the world’s most latitudinally contiguous mountain range, the American Cordillera. We show that a combination of dynamical, thermodynamical and hypsometric factors results in an asymmetric emergence of low-to-no-snow conditions within the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera. Low-to-no-snow emergence occurs approximately 20 years earlier in the southern hemisphere, at a third of the local warming level, and coincides with runoff efficiency declines (8% average) in both dry and wet years. The prevention of a low-to-no-snow future in either hemisphere requires the level of global warming to be held to, at most, +2.5 °C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Diverse Land across the Continental United States

The current methods for designing hydrological infrastructure rely on precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency curves. However, they cannot accurately predict flooding caused by snowmelt or rain-on-snow events, potentially leading to underdesigned infrastructure and property damage. To address these issues, next-generation intensity-duration-frequency (NG-IDF) curves have been developed for the open condition, characterizing water available for runoff from rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow. However, they lack consideration of land use land cover (LULC) factors, which can significantly affect runoff processes. We address this limitation by expanding open area NG-IDF dataset to include eight vegetated LULCs over the continental United States, including forest (deciduous, evergreen, mixed), shrub, grass, pasture, crop, and wetland. This NG-IDF 2.0 dataset offers a comprehensive analysis of hydrological extreme events and their associated drivers under different LULCs at a continental scale. It will serve as a useful resource for improving standard design practices and aiding in the assessment of infrastructure design risks. Additionally, it provides useful insights into how changes in LULC impact flooding magnitude, mechanisms, timing, and snow water supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. So our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate change alters flood magnitudes and mechanisms in climatically-diverse headwaters across the northwestern United States

Abstract Flooding caused by high streamflow events poses great risk around the world and is projected to increase under climate change. This paper assesses how climate change will alter high streamflow events by changing both the prevalence of different driving mechanisms (i.e. ‘flood generating processes’) and the magnitude of differently generated floods. We present an analysis of simulated changes in high streamflow events in selected basins in the hydroclimatically diverse Pacific Northwestern United States, classifying the events according to their mechanism. We then compare how the different classes of events respond to changes in climate at the annual scale. In a warmer future, high flow events will be caused less frequently by snowmelt and more frequently by precipitation events. Also, precipitation-driven high flow events are more sensitive to increases in precipitation than are snowmelt-driven high flow events, so the combination of the increase in both frequency and magnitude of precipitation-driven high flow events leads to higher flood likelihood than under each change alone. Our comparison of the results from two emissions pathways shows that a reduction in global emissions will limit the increase in magnitude and prevalence of these precipitation-driven events.

S Chegwidden, Oriana (ORCID:0000000313763835)↗
DOE OSTI2023

The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach

Abstract This article explores the application of thermodynamic perturbations to a historical midlatitude, wintertime, rain-on-snow flood event to evaluate how similar events may evolve under different climate forcings. In particular, we generate a hindcast of the 1996 Mid-Atlantic flood using an ensemble of 14-km variable-resolution simulations completed with the U.S. Department of Energy’s global Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We show that the event is skillfully reproduced over the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) by E3SM when benchmarked against in situ observational data and high-resolution reanalyses. In addition, we perform five counterfactual experiments to simulate the flood under preindustrial conditions and four different levels of warming as projected by the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find a nonlinear response in simulated surface runoff and streamflow as a function of atmospheric warming. This is attributed to changing contributions of liquid water input from a shallower initial snowpack (decreased snowmelt), increased surface temperatures and rainfall rates, and increased soil water storage. Flooding associated with this event peaks from around +1 to +2 K of global average surface warming and decreases with additional warming beyond this. There are noticeable timing shifts in peak runoff and streamflow associated with changes in the flashiness of the event. This work highlights the utility of using storyline approaches for communicating climate risk and demonstrates the potential nonlinearities associated with hydrologic extremes in areas that experience ephemeral snowpack, such as the SRB.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanistic and predictive understanding of needle litter decay in semi-arid mountain ecosystems experiencing unprecedented vegetation mortality. Final report

This research compared needle litter decay rates and underlying mechanisms between litter released from insect-killed trees to that of naturally senesced litter from healthy trees across climate variables with elevation and snowmelt rates as variables. Our research was designed to address questions of whether there is a significant impact to C and N cycling at the terrestrial-atmospheric interface in association with pine needle decomposition and the role of changes in soil moisture and temperature as a function of these processes. Field activities were primarily conducted within the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory’s (RMBL) East River watershed across a spectrum of ecoregions that spanned approximately 700 vertical meters. Forested catchments at these elevations in southwestern Colorado are threatened by heat-induced drought, altered snowmelt patterns, and invasive insect infestation that have all been associated with climate change. Needle litter from two members of the Pinaceae family experiencing large-scale insect infestations (spruce and lodgepole pine) were collected, redeployed and then sampled over the course of three years. We experimentally tested three tractable parameters that are known to impact litter decay and biogeochemical cycling and are relevant to bark beetle-induced tree mortality: (1) moisture content, (2) temperature by using elevation as a surrogate, and (3) changes to litter compositional chemistry that result from beetle infestation. We examined decay processes and monitored the migration of soluble and gaseous nitrogen and carbon species as well as microbiological signatures of decay such as biodegradable fractions, metal availability and the temporal succession of associated microorganisms at the terrestrial interface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Peatland hydrology across scale: a probabilistic framework for confronting variability, heterogeneity, and uncertainty (Final Report)

Our project aimed to guide the representations of peatland hydrology and water-carbon feedbacks within Earth System Models, by improving process understanding and developing parsimonious models that elucidate the effects of hydroclimatic variability and spatial heterogeneity. Our research questions centered on the three key drivers of peatland hydrology: (1) seasonal and interannual hydroclimatic fluctuations, (2) spatial heterogeneity of peatland microtopography, and (3) hydrological connectivity across landscape units within a peatland watershed. Our analyses and model testing used existing long-term datasets within the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF), with new data collected whenever necessary. To date, we have demonstrated the strong influence of water table elevations on the temperature sensitivity of CH 4 emissions, using a newly developed eddy covariance dataset spanning eleven years at MEF. Specifically, higher water tables dampen the increase in CH 4 emissions in the spring as well as their decrease in the fall, resulting in hysteresis. These results imply that any hydroclimatological changes in peatlands that shift seasonal water availability from winter to summer will increase annual CH 4 emissions, even if soil temperature remains unchanged. To further investigate water table elevation change within the peatland microtopography, we installed automated water table gauges across four bog-forest transects (the “lagg”) in two peatland watersheds at MEF, which are hotspots of intense biogeochemical activity. These measurements will give us new information about the extent of lagg expansion and contraction during snowmelt and high intensity rainfall events, as well as the directionality of water and nutrient flow into the bog from the surrounding forests. Finally, we investigated the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex during early spring – a critical period where water table is elevated from snowmelt – using extended hydrological records from MEF (e.g., snow and frost depths, water table elevations, streamflow). The importance of thermal and wintertime processes within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was determined through sensitivity analyses. Results from data analyses show that (i) streamflow has decreased over decades likely due to increased evapotranspiration rates (despite no detectable trends in precipitation), (ii) spring streamflow generation is controlled by a sequence of fill-and-spill pathways from the snowpack to the stream through peatland water stores, and (iii) frost depth is a key explanatory variable for the timing and magnitude of streamflow. These results suggest that frost plays an important role in connecting surface water storage in peatlands to stream outlets, and that the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex can mediate the sensitivity of hydrological responses to climate variations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated Cloud Based Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based SWE Prediction

Snow derived water is a critical component of the US water supply. Measurements of the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and associated predictions of peak SWE and snowmelt onset are essential inputs for water management efforts. This paper aims to develop an integrated framework for real-time data ingestion, estimation, prediction and visualization of SWE based on daily snow datasets. In particular, we develop a data-driven approach for estimating and predicting SWE dynamics using the Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM) method. Our approach uses historical datasets (precipitation, air temperature, SWE, and snow thickness) collected at NRCS Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations to train the LSTM network and current year data to predict SWE behavior. The performance of our prediction was compared for different prediction dates and prediction training datasets. Our results suggest that the proposed LSTM network can be an efficient tool for forecasting the SWE timeseries, as well as Peak SWE and snowmelt timing. Results showed that the window size impacts the model performance (where the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.96 to 0.85 and the Rooted Mean Square Error (RMSE) ranged from 0.038 to 0.07) with an optimum number that should be calibrated for different stations and climate conditions. In addition, by implementing the LSTM prediction capability in a cloud based site-monitoring platform, we automate model-data integration. By making the data accessible through a graphical web interface and an underlying API which exposes both training and prediction capabilities. The associated results can be made easily accessible to a broad range of stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving snow albedo modeling in the E3SM land model (version 2.0) and assessing its impacts on snow and surface fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau

With the highest albedo of the land surface, snow plays a vital role in Earth's surface energy budget and water cycle. Snow albedo is primarily controlled by snow grain properties (e.g., size and shape) and light-absorbing particles (LAPs) such as black carbon (BC) and dust. The mixing state of LAPs in snow also has impacts on LAP-induced snow albedo reduction and surface radiative forcing (RF). However, most land surface models assume that snow grain shape is spherical and LAPs are externally mixed with the snow grains. This study improves the snow radiative transfer model in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2.0 (E3SM v2.0) Land Model (ELM v2.0) by considering non-spherical snow grain shapes (i.e., spheroid, hexagonal plate, and Koch snowflake) and internal mixing of dust–snow, and it systematically evaluates the impacts on the surface energy budget and water cycle over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). A series of ELM simulations with different treatments of snow grain shape, mixing state of BC–snow and dust–snow, and sub-grid topographic effects (TOP) on solar radiation are performed. Compared with two remote sensing snow products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, the control ELM simulation (ELM_Control) with the default configurations of spherical snow grain shape, internal mixing of BC–snow, external mixing of dust–snow, and without TOP as well as the ELM simulation with new model features (ELM_New) can both capture the overall snow distribution reasonably. Additionally, ELM_New overall shows smaller biases in snow cover fraction than ELM_Control in spring when snowmelt is important for water management. The estimated LAP-induced RF in ELM_New ranges from 0 to 19.3 W m -2 with the area-weighted average value of 1.5 W m -2 that is comparable to the reported values in existing studies. The Koch snowflake shape, among other non-spherical shapes, shows the largest difference from the spherical shape in spring when snow processes related to the surface energy budget and water cycle have high importance. The impacts of the mixing state of LAP in snow are smaller than the shape effects and depend on snow grain shape. Compared to external mixing, internal mixing of LAP–snow can lead to larger snow albedo reduction and snowmelt, which further affect the surface energy budget and water cycle. The individual contributions of non-spherical snow shape, mixing state of LAP–snow, and local topography impacts on the snow and surface fluxes have different signs and magnitudes, and their combined effects may be negative or positive due to complex and nonlinear interactions among the factors. Overall, the changes in net solar radiation in spring due to individual and combined effects range from -28.6 to 16.9 W m -2 and -29.7 to 12.2 W m -2 , respectively. This study advances understanding of the role of snow grain shape and mixing state of LAP–snow in land surface processes and offers guidance for improving snow simulations and RF estimates in Earth system models under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin

Abstract. Rain-on-snow (RoS) events in regions of ephemeral snowpack – such as the northeastern United States – can be key drivers of cool-season flooding. We describe an automated algorithm for detecting basin-scale RoS events in gridded climate data by generating an area-averaged time series and then searching for periods of concurrent precipitation, surface runoff, and snowmelt exceeding predefined thresholds. When evaluated using historical data over the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), the technique credibly finds RoS events in published literature and flags events that are followed by anomalously high streamflow as measured by gauge data along the river. When comparing four different datasets representing the same 21-year period, we find large differences in RoS event magnitude and frequency, primarily driven by differences in estimated surface runoff and snowmelt. Using dataset-specific thresholds improves agreement between datasets but does not account for all discrepancies. We show that factors such as meteorological forcing and coupling frequency, as well as choice of land surface model, play roles in how data products capture these compound extremes and suggest care is to be taken when climate datasets are used by stakeholders for operational decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗