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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗
NASA NTRS1985

Lunar and Planetary Science Conference, 15th, Houston, TX, March 12-16, 1984, Proceedings. Part 2

Subjects of lunar petrology are discussed, taking into account Apollo 14 aluminous mare basalts and their possible relationship to KREEP, the petrology and geochemistry of clasts from consortium breccia, the depths of the mare basalt source region, the origin of olivine at Copernicus, a transient heating event in the history of a highlands troctolite from Apollo 12 soil, and the composition and evolution of the lunar crust in the Descartes highlands. Other topics explored are related to early earth and magmatic processes, differentiated meteorites, chondritic meteorites, other planets and remote sensing, and cratering. Attention is given to the gravity field of Venus at constant altitude and comparison with earth, a spectral analog of Martian soil, dark halo craters and the thickness of grooved terrain on Ganymede, the geomorphology of Rhea, a Monte Carlo model of lunar megaregolith development, the scaling of complex craters, crustal radiogenic heat production and the selective survival of ancient continental crust, and the formation of an impact-generated H2O atmosphere and its implications for the early thermal history of the earth.

Ryder, G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

On the weathering of Martian igneous rocks

Besides the young crystallization age, one of the first arguments for the martian origin of shergottite, nakhlite, and chassignite (SNC) meteorites came from the chemical similarity of the meteorite Shergotty and the martian soil as measured by Viking XRF analyses. In the meantime, the discovery of trapped rare gas and nitrogen components with element and isotope ratios closely matching the highly characteristic ratios of the Mars atmosphere in the shock glasses of shergottite EETA79001 was further striking evidence that the SNC's are martian surface rocks. The martian soil composition as derived from the Viking mission, with its extremely high S and Cl concentrations, was interpreted as weathering products of mafic igneous rocks. The low SiO2 content and the low abundance of K and other trace elements in the martian soils point to a mafic crust with a considerably smaller degree of fractionation compared to the terrestrial crust. However, the chemical evolution of the martian regolith and soil in respect to surface reaction with the planetary atmosphere or hydrosphere is poorly understood. A critical point in this respect is that the geochemical evidence as derived from the SNC meteorites suggests that Mars is a very dry planet that should have lost almost all its initially large water inventory during its accretion.

Dreibus, G.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The Viking gas exchange experiment results from Chryse and Utopia surface samples

Immediate gas changes occurred when untreated Martian surface samples were humidified and/or wet by an aqueous nutrient medium in the Viking lander gas exchange experiment. The evolutions of N2, CO2, and Ar are mainly associated with soil surface desorption caused by water vapor, while O2 evolution is primarily associated with decomposition of superoxides inferred to be present on Mars. On recharges with fresh nutrient and test gas, only CO2 was given off, and its rate of evolution decreased with each recharge. This CO2 evolution is thought to come from the oxidation of organics present in the nutrient by gamma Fe2O3 in the surface samples. Atmospheric analyses were also performed at both sites. The mean atmospheric composition from four analyses is N2, 2.3%; O2, not greater than 0.15%; Ar, 1.5% and CO2, 96.2%.

Oyama, V. I.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A regression model for the temporal development of soil pipes and associated gullies in the alluvial-fill valley of the Rio Puerco, central New Mexico

On Mars, the association of gullied escarpments and chaotic terrain is evidence for failure and scarp retreat of poorly consolidated materials. Some martian gullies have no surface outlets and may have drained through subterranean channels. Similar features, though on a much smaller scale, can be seen in alluvium along terrestrial river banks in semiarid regions, such as the Rio Puerco Valley of central New Mexico. Many of the escarpments along the Rio Puerco are developing through formation of collapse gullies, which drain through soil pipes. Gully development can be monitored on aerial photographs taken in 1935, 1962, and 1980. A regression model was developed to quantify gully evolution over a known time span. Soil pipes and their associated collapse gullies make recognizable signatures on the air photos. The areal extent of this signature can be normalized to the scarp length of each pipe-gully system, which makes comparisons between systems possible.

Condit, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Linking boundary-layer circulations and surface processes during FIFE89. Part 1: Observational analysis

Surface, aircraft, and satellite observations are analyzed for the 21-day 1989 intensive field campaign of the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) to determine the effect of precipitation, vegetation, and soil moisture distributions on the thermal properties of the surface including the heat and moisture fluxes, and the corresponding response in the boundary-layer circulation. Mean and variance properties of the surface variables are first documented at various time and space scales. These calculations are designed to set the stage for Part 2, a modeling study that will focus on how time-space dependent rainfall distribution influences the intensity of the feedback between a vegetated surface and the atmospheric boundary layer. Further analysis shows strongly demarked vegetation and soil moisture gradients extending across the FIFE experimental site that were developed and maintained by the antecedent and ongoing spatial distribution of rainfall over the region. These gradients are shown to have a pronounced influence on the thermodynamic properties of the surface. Furthermore, perturbation surface wind analysis suggests for both short-term steady-state conditions and long-term averaged conditions that the gradient pattern maintained a diurnally oscillating local direct circulation with perturbation vertical velocities of the same order as developing cumulus clouds. Dynamical and scaling considerations suggest that the embedded perturbation circulation is driven by surface heating/cooling gradients and terrain ef fects rather than the manifestation of an inertial oscillation. The implication is that at even relatively small scales (less than 30 km), the differential evolution in vegetation density and soil moisture distribution over a relatively homogenous ecotone can give rise to preferential boundary-layer circulations capable of modifying local-scale horizontal and vertical motions.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Crustal Heat Production and the Thermal Evolution of Mars

The chemical compositions of soils and rocks from the Pathfinder site and Phobos-2 orbital gamma-ray spectroscopy indicate that the Martian crust has a bulk composition equivalent to large-ion lithophile (LIL) and heat-producing element (HPE) enriched basalt, with a potassium content of about 0.5%. A variety of radiogenic isotopic data also suggest that separation of LIL-enriched crustal and depleted mantle reservoirs took place very early in Martian history (greater than 4.0 Ga). Accordingly, if the enriched Martian crust is greater than 30km thick it is likely that a large fraction (up to at least 50%) of the heat-producing elements in Mars was transferred into the crust very early in the planet's history. This would greatly diminish the possibility of early widespread melting of the Martian mantle.

McLennan, Scott M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Crustal Heat Production and the Thermal Evolution of Mars

The chemical composition of soils and rocks from the Pathfinder site and Phobos-2 orbital gamma-ray spectroscopy indicate that the Martian crust has a bulk composition equivalent to large-ion lithophile (LIL) and heat-producing element (K, Th, U) enriched basalt, with a potassium content of about 0.5%. A variety of radiogenic isotope data also suggest that separation of LIL-enriched crust and depleted mantle reservoirs took place very early in Martian history (>4.0 Ga). Accordingly, if the enriched Martian crust is >30 km thick it is likely that a large fraction (up to at least 50%) of the heat-producing elements in Mars was transferred into the crust very early in the planet's history. This would greatly diminish the possibility of early widespread melting of the Martian mantle.

McLennan, Scott M.↗
NASA NTRS1975

The simulated depth history of dust grains in the lunar regolith

Trajectories giving the individual depth variations of lunar dust grains with time are randomly generated by a Monte Carlo code, where the variables are the mass and speed distribution of meteorites at the lunar surface and the geometrical shape of impact craters. A statistical analysis of a great number of such trajectories is then used to define the 'average' depth history of lunar dust grains for two grain radii: 1 and 50 microns. This yields: (1) estimates for time constants involved during the dynamic evolution of the regolith, (2) a model for the layering of the regolith, and (3) a better understanding of the basic dust-grain mechanisms responsible for the formation of the most mature lunar soil samples. The validity of various soil models proposed for the dynamic evolution of the regolith is discussed in terms of experimental constraints on the models.

Duraud, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Volatile metal deposits on lunar soils: Relation to volcanism

Parallel leaching and volatilization experiments conducted on lunar samples and similar experiments on sphalerite do not supply the information needed to resolve the question of the chemical nature of pb 204, Zn, Bi and Tl deposits on lunar soil surfaces. It is proposed that in Apollo 17 mare and terra soils and fractions of pb 204, Zn and Tl that are insoluble under mild, hot pH 5HNO3, leaching conditions and involatile at 600 C were originally surface deposits which became immobilized by migration into the silicate substrate or by chemisorption. Only Bi is predominantly indigenous. The implication is also that the soils over their respective times of evolution were exposed to heavy metal vapors or that an episodic exposure occurred after they had evolved. A sequence of events is proposed to account for orange 74220 and black 74001 glasses by lava fountaining and for soil 74241 as tephra from an explosive volcanic eruption.

Reed, G. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Volatile metal deposits on lunar soils - Relation to volcanism

Parallel leaching and volatilization experiments conducted on lunar samples and similar experiments on sphalerite do not supply the information needed to resolve the question of the chemical nature of Pb-204, Zn, Bi, and Tl deposits on lunar soil surfaces. It is proposed that in Apollo 17 mare and terra soils the fractions of Pb-204, Zn, and Tl that are insoluble under mild, hot pH 5 HNO3, leaching conditions and involatile at 600 C were originally surface deposits which became immobilized by migration into the silicate substrate or by chemisorption. Most of the Bi does not seem to be the result of such a deposit. The implication is also that the soils, over their respective times of evolution, were exposed to heavy metal vapors or that an episodic exposure occurred after they had evolved. A sequence of events is proposed to account for orange 74220 and black 74001 glasses by lava fountaining and for soil 74241 as tephra from an explosive volcanic eruption.

Reed, G. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Degassing history of Mars from Martian atmosphere samples

A comparison of the abundances of Ar-40 and He-4 (radiogenic) in various terrestrial planetary atmospheres provides clues to the volcanic and tectonic histories of the planets while the amount of primordial noble gases in the planetary atmospheres provides clues to the quantities of volatile rich materials captured by each planet. The noble gas contents of Mars, Earth, and Venus clearly show that the absolute abundances of isotopes of gases are directly proportional to the amounts of degassed CO2 into the planetary atmosphere. Several basic geological units can be seen on the global geological map of Mars. The enormous size of volcanic and tectonic structures of Mars, despite its smaller size, provide invaluable clues to the degassing history of Mars. Therefore, the collection of samples of Martian atmosphere and soil volatiles is imperative to understand the origin and evolution of the atmosphere and its interaction with the Martian surface. Surface properties of Martian rocks, soils, breccias, and regolith and their chemistry are also generic to any discussion on the origin and evolution of the atmosphere of Mars. The differences in absolute abundances of gases in the planetary atmospheres are amenable to many alternative interpretations. These alternative interpretations can be tested by imposing additional constraints derived from the isotopic results of noble gases in the atmospheres of the planets.

Rao, A. S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Conference on Early Mars: Geologic and Hydrologic Evolution, Physical and Chemical Environments, and the Implications for Life

Topics considered include: Geology alteration and life in an extreme environment; developing a chemical code to identify magnetic biominerals; effect of impacts on early Martin geologic evolution; spectroscopic identification of minerals in Hematite-bearing soils and sediments; exopaleontology and the search for a Fossil record on Mars; geochemical evolution of the crust of Mars; geological evolution of the early earth;solar-wind-induced erosion of the Mars atmosphere. Also included geological evolution of the crust of Mars.

Clifford, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Relative Influence of Initial Surface and Atmospheric Conditions on Seasonal Water and Energy Balances

We constructed and analyzed wet and dry soil moisture composites for the mid-latitude GCIP region of the central US using long climate model simulations made with the NCAR CCM3 and reanalysis products from NCEP. Using the diagnostic composites as a guide, we have completed a series of predictability experiments in which we imposed soil water initial conditions in CCM3 for the GCIP region for June 1 from anomalously wet and dry years, with atmospheric initial conditions taken from June 1 of a year with 'near-normal' soil water, and initial soil water from the near-normal year and atmospheric initial conditions from the wet and dry years. Preliminary results indicate that the initial state of the atmosphere is more important than the initial state of soil water determining the subsequent late spring and summer evolution of sod water over the GCIP region. Surprisingly, neither the composites or the predictability experiments yielded a strong influence of soil moisture on the atmosphere. To explore this further, we have made runs with extreme dry soil moisture initial anomalies imposed over the GCIP region (the soil close to being completely dry). These runs did yield a very strong effect on the atmosphere that persisted for at least three months. We conclude that the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly is crucial, at least in CCM3, and are currently investigating whether a threshold exists, below which little impact is seen. In a complementary study, we compared the impact of the initial condition of snow cover versus the initial atmospheric state over the western US (corresponding to the westward extension of the GAPP program follow-on to GCIP). In this case, the initial prescription of snow cover is far more important than the initial atmospheric state in determining the subsequent evolution of snow cover. We are currently working to understand the very different soil water and snow cover results.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

MSATT Workshop on Chemical Weathering on Mars

The topics covered with respect to chemical weathering on Mars include the following: Mars soil, mineralogy, spectroscopic analysis, clays, silicates, oxidation, iron oxides, water, chemical reactions, geochemistry, minerals, Mars atmosphere, atmospheric chemistry, salts, planetary evolution, volcanology, Mars volcanoes, regolith, surface reactions, Mars soil analogs, carbonates, meteorites, and reactivity.

Burns, Roger↗