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Soil Environmental Conditions in the East River Watershed, CO

This dataset contains depth-resolved soil environmental variables collected between June 2016 and October 2018 from the Bradley Meadow site in the East River watershed. Datalogger output from 7 Campbell CS655 12 cm Soil Moisture and Temperature Sensors including depth, temperature, volumetric water content, and electrical conductivity are included in ‘BM_Merged_T_VWC_0616_10_18.csv’. Sensors were installed in June 2016. Data have been processed to merge raw sensor data and to remove additional variables. No additional QA/QC was performed. Measured pCO2 and depth are contained in ‘BM_EGM_WELL_CO2.csv’. These data represent gas well samples measured via injection using a PP Systems EGM-5 infra-red gas analyzer as described in the methods section. Measured CO2 surface flux values are contained in 'BM_EGM_Surface_Flux.csv'. These were measured using the PP Systems EGM-5 with the Soil Respiration Chamber attachment. Multiple reps are reported for each measurement including CO2 flux rate calculations using built-in linear and quadratic function methods, and average and standard deviations are taken across all reps and calculation methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

N 2 Onet: a global collaborative network facilitating advances in measurement, modeling, and mitigation of agricultural soil nitrous oxide emissions

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer supports global food production, but its use and overuse drive emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent and long-lived greenhouse gas. Understanding the drivers of N 2 O fluxes remains elusive, making it difficult to predict emissions in time and space and to develop and evaluate ways to lower emissions through management. Major scientific uncertainties underlying the understanding of the drivers of N 2 O fluxes identified in a workshop of N 2 O emissions experts include poor process-based understanding of controls on soil N 2 O emissions in the field; insufficient data to reduce uncertainty in N 2 O budgets from the field to regional scales, including N 2 O emission measurements and importantly, field-scale N balances; and high uncertainty in model predictions of soil N 2 O emissions across environmental and management conditions. To reduce these uncertainties, we present the concept of N 2 Onet, a global collaborative initiative to accelerate advances in N 2 O measurement, analyses, and mitigation. N 2 Onet will serve as an observational network of supersites with multi-scale measurements; a database hub for N 2 O flux and ancillary data; and a catalyst for community building, information sharing, and training. By coalescing and coordinating the global community of researchers, N 2 Onet will provide a roadmap for reducing N 2 O emissions from agriculture worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coupled machine learning–ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N 2 O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N 2 O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N 2 O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N 2 O at both training (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha −1 d −1 ) and held-out testing sites (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha −1 d −1 ). Analyses identified six dominant N 2 O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH 4 + , NO 3 - , water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N 2 O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N 2 O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

AI↗

Experimentally simulated sea level rise destabilizes carbon-mineral associations in temperate tidal marsh soil

How sea level rise (SLR) alters carbon (C) dynamics in tidal salt marsh soils is unresolved. Changes in hydrodynamics could influence organo-mineral associations, influencing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes. As SLR increases the duration of inundation, we hypothesize that lateral DOC export will increase due to reductive dissolution of C-bearing iron (Fe) oxides, destabilizing soil C stocks and influencing greenhouse gas emissions. To test this, soil cores (0–8 cm depth) were collected from the high marsh of a temperate salt marsh that currently experiences changes in water level and soil redox oscillation due to spring-neap tides. Mesocosms experimentally simulated SLR by continuously inundating high marsh soils and were compared to mesocosms with Control conditions, where the water level oscillated on a spring-neap cycle. Porewater DOC, lateral DOC, and porewater reduced Fe (Fe 2+ ) concentrations were significantly higher in SLR treatments (1.7 ± 0.5 mM, 0.63 ± 0.14 mM, and 0.15 ± 0.11 mM, respectively) than Control treatments (1.2 ± 0.35 mM, 0.56 ± 0.15 mM, and 0.08 ± 01 mM, respectively Solid phase analysis with Fe extended X-ray absorption fine-structure spectroscopy further revealed that SLR led to > 3 times less Fe oxide-C coprecipitates than Control conditions In addition, the overall global warming potential (GWP) decreased under SLR due to suppressed CO 2 emissions. Our data suggest that SLR may increase lateral C export of current C stocks by dissolving C-bearing Fe oxides but decrease the overall GWP from emissions of soil trace gases. Finally, these findings have implications for understanding the fate of SOC dynamics under future SLR scenarios.

dissolved organic carbon↗

Simulated Hydrological Dynamics and Coupled Iron Redox Cycling Impact Methane Production in an Arctic Soil

The fate of organic carbon (C) in permafrost soils is important to the climate system due to the large global stocks of permafrost C. Thawing permafrost can be subject to dynamic hydrology, making redox processes an important factor controlling soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition rates and greenhouse gas production. In iron (Fe)-rich permafrost soils, Fe(III) can serve as a terminal electron acceptor, promoting anaerobic respiration of SOM and increasing pH. Current large-scale models of Arctic C cycling do not include Fe cycling or pH interactions. Here, a geochemical reaction model was developed by coupling Fe redox reactions and C cycling to simulate SOM decomposition, Fe(III) reduction, pH dynamics, and greenhouse gas production in permafrost soils subject to dynamic hydrology. In this study we parameterized the model using measured CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes as well as changes in pH, Fe(II), and dissolved organic C concentrations from oxic and anoxic incubations of permafrost soils from polygonal permafrost sites in northern Alaska, United States. In simulations of repeated oxic-anoxic cycles, Fe(III) reduction during anoxic periods enhanced CO 2 production, while the net effect of Fe(III) reduction on cumulative CH 4 fluxes depended on substrate C availability. With lower substrate availability, Fe(III) reduction decreased total CH 4 production by further limiting available substrate. With higher substrate availability, Fe(III) reduction enhanced CH 4 production by increasing pH. Our results suggest that interactions among Fe-redox reactions, pH and methanogenesis are important factors in predicting CH 4 and CO 2 production as well as SOM decomposition rates in Fe-rich, frequently waterlogged Arctic soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bedrock weathering rates, reactive nitrogen influxes and effluxes, and nitrous oxide emissions rates from the Pumphouse Hillslope, East River Watershed, Colorado

Atmospheric nitrous oxide contributes directly to global warming, yet models of the nitrogen cycle do not account for bedrock, the largest pool of terrestrial nitrogen, as a source of nitrous oxide. Although it is known that release rates of nitrogen from bedrock are large, there is an incomplete understanding of the connection between bedrock-hosted nitrogen and atmospheric nitrous oxide. Here, we quantify nitrogen fluxes and mass balances at a hillslope underlain by marine shale. We found that at this site bedrock weathering contributes 78% of the subsurface reactive nitrogen, while atmospheric sources (commonly regarded as the sole sources of reactive nitrogen in pristine environments) account for only the remaining 22%. About 56% of the total subsurface reactive nitrogen denitrifies, including 14% emitted as nitrous oxide. The remaining reactive nitrogen discharges in porewaters to a floodplain where additional denitrification likely occurs. We also found that the release of bedrock nitrogen occurs primarily within the zone of the seasonally fluctuating water table and suggest that the accumulation of nitrate in the vadoes zone, often attributed to fertilization and soil leaching, may also include contributions from weathered nitrogen-rich bedrock. Our hillslope study suggests that under oxygenated and moisture-rich conditions, weathering of deep, nitrogen-rich bedrock makes an important contribution to the nitrogen cycle. The data files are in Excel, which can be accessed using Microsoft Office, and consist of many data sets from the Pumphouse Hillslope PLM (Pumphouse Lower Montane) 1, 2, 3, and 4. They include soil to rock (0-10 meters) solid phase minerals and elements compositions; time- and depth-resolved pore-water chemistry and pore-gas compositions; time- and depth-resolved water table depths and water fluxes; subsurface weathering rates; nitrogen influxes and effluxes and mass balance. The attached paper is in a Word document, which can be accessed using Microsoft Office, and in pdf format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Establishing Validation Sites for Field-Level Emissions Quantification from Grain Sorghum in Southern Great Plains

Establish publicly available open-source, high-resolution datasets of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, meteorology, soil, and vegetation to support testing and validation of emerging biofuel production monitoring technologies. The project team deployed latest technologies to collect “Gold Standard” data for field- level fluxes of CO 2 , N 2 O, CH 4 and H 2 O in grain sorghum production systems in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The Oklahoma State University led SMARTFARM was initiated on Oct 1, 2020, due to COVID-19 pandemic delay. We installed closed-path dual laser Eddy Covariance (EC) flux measurement system along with a well-established open-path EC system for simultaneously measuring field-level fluxes of CO 2 , N 2 O, CH 4 , and H2O. The eddy flux data are combined with sub-acre soil moisture and temperature measurements, plant and soil analysis data (nutrient, composition, carbon, growth, and phenology), spatial surveys of soil EC, and pH. Grain sorghum crop was managed including planting and harvesting by producers. All teams recruited postdocs and students for the project and submitted purchase orders for field equipment. The team has developed a draft impact sheet and finalized the advisory board for the project.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Peatland Microbial Community Composition Is Driven by a Natural Climate Gradient

Peatlands are important players in climate change–biosphere feedbacks via long-term net carbon (C) accumulation in soil organic matter and as potential net C sources including the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH 4 ). Interactions of climate, site-hydrology, plant community, and groundwater chemical factors influence peatland development and functioning, including C dioxide (CO 2 ) and CH 4 fluxes, but the role of microbial community composition is not well understood. To assess microbial functional and taxonomic dissimilarities, we used high throughput sequencing of the small subunit ribosomal DNA (SSU rDNA) to determine bacterial and archaeal community composition in soils from twenty North American peatlands. Targeted DNA metabarcoding showed that although Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, and Actinobacteria were the dominant phyla on average, intermediate and rich fens hosted greater diversity and taxonomic richness, as well as an array of candidate phyla when compared with acidic and nutrient-poor poor fens and bogs. Moreover, pH was revealed to be the strongest predictor of microbial community structure across sites. Predictive metagenome content (PICRUSt) showed increases in specific genes, such as purine/pyrimidine and amino-acid metabolism in mid-latitude peatlands from 38 to 45° N, suggesting a shift toward utilization of microbial biomass over utilization of initial plant biomass in these microbial communities. Overall, there appears to be noticeable differences in community structure between peatland classes, as well as differences in microbial metabolic activity between latitudes. Finally, these findings are in line with a predicted increase in the decomposition and accelerated C turnover, and suggest that peatlands north of 37° latitude may be particularly vulnerable to climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring the Use of Non‐Invasive Drone‐Based Ground‐Penetrating Radar (GPR) to Characterize Biogenic Gas Dynamics in Subtropical Peat Soils

Peat soils are a critical component of the global carbon cycle as natural producers of biogenic greenhouse gases (e.g., methane and carbon dioxide) that accumulate within the soil and are released to the atmosphere. Previous studies have showed the ability of ground-based minimally-invasive geophysical methods such as ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to characterize carbon dynamics in peat soils. However, ground-based GPR is limited by scale of measurement and soil disturbance potentially altering gas releases during deployment. Here, we explore the potential of drone-based GPR for identification of hot spots and hot moments of gas accumulation and release in subtropical soils. Here, we collected drone-based GPR data sets across two grids (∼17,500 m 2 ) in the Everglades during January (dry season), September, and November (wet season) of 2023 to characterize peat thickness and seasonal variability of gas content. Results show that drone-based GPR is effective and efficient for: (a) capturing the temporal variation of in situ biogenic gas content in peat soils with changes between 1% and 25 % volumetric gas content over repeatable grids; (b) inferring a total peat thickness between 0.8 and 1.2 m; and (c) estimating flux releases of 63 and 135 mg CH 4 m −2 day −1 for specific locations and periods that are strikingly consistent with our coincident gas trap measurements. This work also indicates that (a) spatial distribution of gas content in the Everglades is strongly controlled by landscape morphology such as ridges and sloughs and (b) the temporal variation of gas content is seasonal with increased gas production during the wet season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Boosting climate change mitigation potential of perennial lignocellulosic crops grown on marginal lands

Nitrogen fertilizer (N F ) is a major uncertainty surrounding the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of lignocellulosic biofuels. NF enhances agronomic yields and soil C inputs via plant litters, but results in soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition, soil N 2 O fluxes, and a large fossil energy footprint. Thus, whether NF is beneficial or detrimental to the GHG mitigation of biofuels is unknown. Here, we show the potential GHG mitigation of fertilizing switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) at the NF rate that minimizes net GHG emissions across 7.1 million ha of marginal lands in the Midwest US, with long-term production advantages surpassing emitted GHG by 0.66 Mg CO 2 e ha –1 yr –1 on the aggregate. Marginal lands limited by poor N fertility could see a much greater benefit, but not SOC-rich lands, limited by low precipitation, or short growing seasons. The objectives of maximizing yield and minimizing GHG overlap only in a few environments, suggesting that maximum yield will reduce the climate benefit of cellulosic biofuels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CO2 Profiling System for CO2 Storage (a1-level)

The Southern Great Plains (SGP) carbon dioxide flux (CO2FLUX) measurement systems provide half-hour average fluxes of CO2, H2O (latent heat), sensible heat, and momentum. The systems use the eddy covariance technique, which computes the fluxes from the vertical wind speed in combination with the concentrations of CO2 and H2O, temperature, and horizontal wind speed, respectively. A 3D sonic anemometer obtains the wind components and the temperature, while an infrared gas analyzer measures CO2 and H2O. A sub-system also measures half-hour averages of radiation, meteorological, and soil measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lagged Wetland CH 4 Flux Response in a Historically Wet Year

While a stimulating effect of plant primary productivity on soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions has been well documented, links between gross primary productivity (GPP) and wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions are less well investigated. Determination of the influence of primary productivity on wetland CH 4 emissions (FCH 4 ) is complicated by confounding influences of water table level and temperature on CH 4 production, which also vary seasonally. Here, in this work, we evaluate the link between preceding GPP and subsequent FCH 4 at two fens in Wisconsin using eddy covariance flux towers, Lost Creek (US-Los) and Allequash Creek (US-ALQ). Both wetlands are mosaics of forested and shrub wetlands, with US-Los being larger in scale and having a more open canopy. Co-located sites with multi-year observations of flux, hydrology, and meteorology provide an opportunity to measure and compare lag effects on FCH4 without interference due to differing climate. Daily average FCH4 from US-Los reached a maximum of 47.7 ηmol CH 4 m -2 s -1 during the study period, while US-ALQ was more than double at 117.9 ηmol CH 4 m -2 s -1 . The lagged influence of GPP on temperature-normalized FCH4 (T air -FCH 4 ) was weaker and more delayed in a year with anomalously high precipitation than a following drier year at both sites. FCH 4 at US-ALQ was lower coincident with higher stream discharge in the wet year (2019), potentially due to soil gas flushing during high precipitation events and lower water temperatures. Better understanding of the lagged influence of GPP on FCH 4 due to this study has implications for climate modeling and more accurate carbon budgeting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The influence of tillage and fertilizer on the flux and source of nitrous oxide with reference to atmospheric variation using laser spectroscopy

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is the third most important long-lived greenhouse gas and agriculture is the largest source of N 2 O emissions. Curbing N 2 O emissions requires understanding influences on the flux and sources of N 2 O. We measured flux and evaluated microbial sources of N 2 O using site preference ( S P ; the intramolecular distribution of 15 N in N 2 O) in flux chambers from a grassland tilling and agricultural fertilization experiments and atmosphere. We identified values greater than that of the average atmosphere to reflect nitrification and/or fungal denitrification and those lower than atmosphere as increased denitrification. Our spectroscopic approach was based on an extensive calibration with 18 standards that yielded S P accuracy and reproducibility of 0.7 ‰ and 1.0 ‰, respectively, without preconcentration. Chamber samples from the tilling experiment taken ~ monthly over a year showed a wide range in N 2 O flux (0–1.9 g N 2 O-N ha -1 d -1 ) and S P (- 1.8 to 25.1 ‰). Flux and S P were not influenced by tilling but responded to sampling date. Large fluxes occurred in October and May in no-till when soils were warm and moist and during a spring thaw, an event likely representing release of N 2 O accumulated under snow cover. These high fluxes could not be ascribed to a single microbial process as S P differed among chambers. However, the year-long S P and flux data for no-till showed a slight direct relationship suggesting that nitrification increased with flux. The comparative data in till showed an inverse relationship indicating that high flux events are driven by denitrification. Corn ( Zea mays ) showed high fluxes and S P values indicative of nitrification ~ 4 wk after fertilization with subsequent declines in S P indicating denitrification. Although there was no effect of fertilizer treatment on flux or S P in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum) , high fluxes occurred ~1 month after fertilization. In both treatments, S P was indicative of denitrification in many instances, but evidence of nitrification/fungal denitrification also prevailed. At 2 m atmospheric N 2 O S P had a range of 31.1 ‰ and 14.6 ‰ in the grassland tilling and agricultural fertilization experiments, respectively. These data suggest the influence of soil microbial processes on atmospheric N 2 O and argue against the use of the global average atmospheric S P in isotopic modeling approaches.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N<sub>2</sub>O emission using data from mesocosm experiments

Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil Chamber Fluxes (CO2 and CH4) across a catena in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico

Wet tropical forest soils contribute significantly to global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Landscape topography largely influences the rate of CO2 versus CH4 emissions from wet tropical forest soils. This dataset contains soil chamber fluxes of CO2 and CH4 from 2016 (April 5 through July 18) across a catena in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. Soil CO2 fluxes followed the trend of ridge>slope>valley. However, soil CH4 emissions followed the opposite trend, where valley soils served as the major source of CH4 emissions. This dataset can improve our understanding of greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) emissions associated with complex topography in wet tropical forest soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of autumn diurnal freeze–thaw cycles on soil bacteria and greenhouse gases in the permafrost regions

Understanding the impacts of diurnal freeze–thaw cycles (DFTCs) on soil microorganisms and greenhouse gas emissions is crucial for assessing soil carbon and nitrogen cycles in the alpine ecosystems. However, relevant studies in the permafrost regions in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) are still lacking. In this study, we used high-throughput pyrosequencing and static chamber-gas chromatogram to study the changes in topsoil bacteria and fluxes of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O), during autumn DFTCs in the permafrost regions of the Shule River headwaters on the western part of Qilian Mountains, northeast margin of the QTP. The results showed that the bacterial communities contained a total of 35 phyla, 88 classes, 128 orders, 153 families, 176 genera, and 113 species. The dominant phyla were Proteobacteria , Acidobacteria , Actinobacteria , Chloroflexi , and Gemmatimonadetes . Two DFTCs led to a trend of increasing bacterial diversity and significant changes in the relative abundance of 17 known bacteria at the family, genus, and species levels. These were predominantly influenced by soil temperature, water content, and salinity. In addition, CO 2 flux significantly increased while CH 4 flux distinctly decreased, and N 2 O flux tended to increase after two DFTCs, with soil bacteria being the primary affecting variable. This study can provide a scientific insight into the impact of climate change on biogeochemical cycles of the QTP.

Lv, Zhenying↗

Carbon Dioxide Flux Measurement System (CO2FLX) Instrument Handbook

The Southern Great Plains (SGP) carbon dioxide flux (CO2 flux) measurement systems provide half-hour average fluxes of CO2, H2O (latent heat), and sensible heat. The fluxes are obtained by the eddy covariance technique, which computes the flux as the mean product of the vertical wind component with CO2 and H2O densities, or estimated virtual temperature. A three-dimensional sonic anemometer is used to obtain the orthogonal wind components and the virtual (sonic) temperature. An infrared gas analyzer is used to obtain the CO2 and H2O densities. A separate sub-system also collects half-hour average measures of meteorological and soil variables from separate 4-m towers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in Soil Environment model script and input data for soil moisture-respiration responses in tropical forests

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet models remain poorly parameterized for tropical forests, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We applied an integrated model–experiment approach, parameterizing an ecosystem model Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) with tropical forest observational data, and comparing model predictions with a field drying manipulation. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We used the field data to parameterize and run tests in the model.Results: Measured CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. We used this data to parameterize the model, which then predicted increased soil CO2 fluxes in wetter and fertile forests with drying, and decreased fluxes in drier, infertile forests. In contrast to model predictions, a chronic throughfall exclusion experiment in the forests initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests, with sustained suppression after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season), as predicted by the model. The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (results presented in Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Code files:CORPSE_array.py: Defines the equations of the CORPSE modelCORPSE_solvers: Functions for running the CORPSE model using either iterative or ordinary differential equation (ODE) solversrun_Panama_sims.py: Read in datasets and run the model simulations for this studyInput data:PanamaGradientEcosystemChem_BT_CPools_20152016CO2_DC_20190615.xlsx: Plot characteristics used in running model simulationsLiCor compiled surface flux only to 2020_03 DC_20200825.xlsx: Surface gas exchange fluxes used in model-data comparisonsPARCHED litterfall data for Ben Sulman LD 20200902.xlsx: Litterfall data used to drive model simulationsInitialization data:state_500y_20190823.csv: Initial state of model pools based on previous spinup runsOutput data:Outputs/prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using original model moisture response function.Outputs/updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using updated model moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using original moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Field plot location data:There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗