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Solar Energetic Proton Access to the Inner Magnetosphere During the September 7–8, 2017 Event
Here, the access of solar energetic protons into the inner magnetosphere on September 7–8, 2017 is investigated by following reversed proton trajectories to compute the proton cutoff energy using the Dartmouth geomagnetic cutoff code (Kress et al., 2010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009sw000488). The cutoff energies for protons coming from the west and east direction, the minimum and maximum cutoff energy respectively, are calculated every 5 min along the orbit of Van Allen Probes using TS07 and the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) MHD magnetic field model. The result shows that the cutoff energy increases significantly as the radial distance decreases, and that the cutoff energy decreases with the building up of the ring current during magnetic storms. Solar wind dynamic pressure also affects cutoff suppression (Kress et al., 2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl018599). The LFM-RCM model shows stronger suppression of cutoff energy than TS07 during strong solar wind driving conditions. The simulation result is compared with proton flux measurements, showing consistent variation of the cutoff location during the September 7–8, 2017 geomagnetic storm.
Demonstration of photoreactor platform for on-sun unassisted photoelectrochemical hydrogen generation with tandem III–V photoelectrodes
Photoelectrochemical (PEC) water splitting is a direct solar-driven technology that converts solar energy to storable chemical energy in the form of hydrogen. In addition to semiconductor and catalyst development for improved photoelectrodes, designing reactors for testing and operation of PEC systems under inherently dynamic outdoor solar illumination is necessary to further the commercial viability of PEC technology. Herein, we present a versatile photoreactor system mounted on a solar tracker for outdoor PEC testing and demonstrate unassisted PEC water splitting under real world on-sun conditions. GaInP 2 /GaAs tandem absorber photoelectrodes with a MoS 2 catalyst were fabricated and exhibit >8% solar-to-hydrogen efficiency. On-sun efficiency and stability of the photoelectrodes were characterized on both sunny and partly cloudy days with continuous monitoring of insolation and weather conditions. Furthermore, the versatile photoreactor and outdoor PEC testing capabilities and methods presented here can accelerate the development of other solar fuel generating systems and technologies.
Quantitative relationships between film morphology, charge carrier dynamics, and photovoltaic performance in bulk-heterojunction binary vs. ternary acceptor blends
Addressing pertinent and perplexing questions regarding why nonfullerene acceptors (NFAs) promote higher power conversion efficiencies (PCEs) than traditional fullerenes and how photoactive bulk heterojunction (BHJ) film morphology, charge photogeneration, and recombination dynamics dictate solar cell performance have stimulated many studies of polymer solar cells (PSCs), yet quantitative relationships remain limited. Better understanding in these areas offers the potential to advance materials design and device engineering, afford higher PCEs, and ultimate commercialization. Here we probe quantitative relationships between BHJ film morphology, charge carrier dynamics, and photovoltaic performance in model binary and ternary blend systems having a wide bandgap donor polymer, a fullerene, and a promising NFA. We show that optimal PC 71 BM incorporation in a PBDB-TF:ITIC-Th binary system matrix retains the original π-face-on orientation, ITIC-Th crystallinity and BHJ film crystallite dimensions, and reduces film upper surface ITIC-Th segregation. Such morphology changes together simultaneously increase hole (μ h ) and electron (μ e ) mobilities, facilitate light-activated ITIC-Th to PC 71 BM domain electron delocalization, reduce free charge carrier (FC) bimolecular recombination (BR) within PBDB-TF:ITIC-Th mixed regions, and increase FC extraction pathways viaPBDB-TF:PC 71 BM pairs. The interplay of these effects yields significantly enhanced inverted cell short-circuit current density (J SC ), fill factor (FF), and PCE. Unexpectedly, we also find that excessive PC 71 BM in the PBDB-TF:ITIC-Th binary system alters the PBDB-TF orientation to π-edge-on, increases large scale PC 71 BM-rich aggregations and BHJ upper surface PC 71 BM composition. Further, these morphology changes increase parasitic decay processes such as intersystem crossing from photoexcited PC 71 BM, compromising the J SC , FF, and PCE metrics. ITIC-Th X-ray diffraction reveals a unique sidechain-dominated molecular network with previously unknown sidechain-end group stacking, rationalizing the STEM and GIWAXS results, photophysics, and the high μ e . DFT computation reveals charge transfer networks within ITIC-Th crystallites, supporting excited-state electron delocalization from ITIC-Th to PC 71 BM. This structure–property understanding leads to a newly reported NFA blend with PCE near 17%.
Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems
The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.
Deployment Potential of Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in California
As states within the United States respond to future grid development goals, there is a growing demand for reliable and resilient nighttime generation that can be addressed by low-cost, long-duration energy storage solutions. This report studies the potential of including concentrating solar power (CSP) in the technology mix to support California’s goals as defined in Senate Bill 100. A joint agency report study that determined potential pathways to achieve the renewable portfolio standard set by the bill did not include CSP, and our work provides information that could be used as a follow-up. This study uses a capacity expansion model configured to have nodal spatial fidelity in California and balancing-area fidelity in the Western Interconnection outside of California. The authors discovered that by applying current technology cost projections CSP fulfills nearly 15% of the annual load while representing just 6% of total installed capacity in 2045, replacing approximately 30 GWe of wind, solar PV, and standalone batteries compared to a scenario without CSP included. The deployment of CSP in the results is sensitive to the technology’s cost, which highlights the importance of meeting cost targets in 2030 and beyond to enable the technology’s potential contribution to California’s carbon reduction goals.
Physics-Informed Sparse Gaussian Process for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Large-Scale Power System with Dynamic PVs and Loads
This work proposes a physics-informed sparse Gaussian process (SGP) for probabilistic stability assessment of large-scale power systems in the presence of uncertain dynamic PVs and loads. The differential and algebraic equations considering uncertainties from dynamic PVs and loads are reformulated to a nonlinear mapping relationship that allows the application of SGP. Thanks to the nonparametric characteristic of Gaussian process, the proposed framework does not require distributions of uncertain inputs and this distinguishes it from existing approaches. As the original Gaussian process is not scalable to large-scale systems with high dimensional uncertain inputs, this paper develops the SGP with a stochastic variational inference technique. It leads to approximately two orders of complex reduction. A data pre-processing step is also introduced to tackle the coexistence of stable and unstable cases by sample clustering and constructing separate SGPs. The probabilistic transient stability index is analyzed to assess system stability under different uncertain dynamics loads and PVs. Comparisons are performed with the sampling-based, the polynomial chaos expansion-based, and traditional Gaussian process-based methods on the modified IEEE 118-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems under various scenarios, including different levels of uncertainties and the existence of nonlinear correlations among dynamic PVs. The impacts of data quality and quantity issues are also investigated. It is shown that the proposed SGP achieves significantly improved computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy with a limited number of data.
Tracing the Origin of Moving Groups. III. Detecting Moving Groups in LAMOST DR7
We revisit the moving groups (MGs) in the solar neighborhood with a sample of 91,969 nearby stars constructed from LAMOST DR7. Using the wavelet technique and Monte Carlo simulations, five MGs together with a new candidate located at $V$ ≃ -130 KM s -1 are detected simultaneously in $V$ - $\sqrt{U^2 + 2V^2}$ space. Taking into account the other known MGs, we conclude that MGs in the Galactic disk are spaced by approximately 15–25 km s -1 along $V$ velocity. Furthermore, the origin of detected MGs is analyzed through the distributions of [Fe/H]-[Mg/Fe] and ages. Our results support attributing the origin to the continuous resonant mechanisms probably induced by the bar or spiral arms of the Milky Way.
Neural-network-driven dynamic simulation of parabolic trough solar fields for improved CSP plant operation
Not Available
A bioinspired approach for adaptive solid-solid phase change material coatings with optimized surface features for passive thermal regulation
The necessity to reduce global energy consumption calls for innovative strategies in building thermal management. Passive thermal regulation, particularly through bio-inspired designs, offers a promising avenue by mimicking nature's efficient control of optical properties. This research introduces a novel, climate-responsive coating that integrates optimized bio-inspired surface features with a solid-solid phase change material (SS-PCM) to dynamically manage solar absorptivity without adding additional thickness, enabling both heating and cooling as needed. Drawing on the photonic architectures of the Saharan silver ant and Morpho Didius butterfly, we employed a modeling and multi-objective optimization framework to tailor these surface features. Simulations reveal that surface texture, rather than the intrinsic phase transition of the SS PCM, dominates optical control. Relative to a flat SS PCM coating, optimized isotropic random roughness and broader range features yielded the highest passive heating power increase of about 144 % and 319 % respectively suitable for cold climates. Saharan ant-inspired features enhanced passive cooling for hot climates, achieving a 21.8 % improvement. For moderate climates, Butterfly-wing-inspired surface features provided a balanced enhancement of 19 % for heating and 7 % for cooling. Across all cases, the optimized surface features reduced combined heating and cooling energy demand more effectively than the baseline coating, while preserving material thickness. These findings demonstrate that climate-adaptive, optimized bio-inspired surface features can unlock the full potential of SS PCM coatings, providing a versatile pathway to significant energy savings in buildings and other applications. The methodology establishes a framework for designing next-generation adaptive envelopes that leverage natural photonic principles for high-impact, low-cost thermal regulation.
Enhancement of chemical oscillations by self-generated convective flows
Chemical feedback loops in fluids can produce not only chemical oscillations, but also density variations that generate solutal buoyancy forces, which in turn initiate fluid flow. Using analytical and computational models, we herein examine how the reaction-induced flows alter the chemical oscillations in a fluid-filled chamber whose top and bottom walls are coated with different enzymes. Due to this chemo-fluidic coupling, the systems form oscillating flow patterns, which combine the characteristic size of the buoyancy-driven convection rolls with the frequency of the chemical oscillations. With changes in the distance between the enzyme-coated walls, the convective flows not only enhance or suppress the chemical oscillations, but also substantially increase the amplitude and frequency of the oscillations and extend the regime of the oscillatory behavior. These design principles can facilitate the development of artificial biochemical networks that act as chemical clocks.
Stars in the local galactic thick disc and halo in Gaia EDR3: a catalogue of half a million local main-sequence stars with photometric metallicities
We present a catalogue of 551 214 main-sequence stars in the local (d < 2 kpc) Galactic thick disc and halo, based on a search of stars with large proper motions ($\mu _{\rm tot} \gt 40.0~\rm mas\, yr^{-1}$) in the Gaia Early Data Release 3. We derive photometric metallicity calibrated from the colour–luminosity–metallicity distribution of 20 047 stars with spectroscopic metallicities, collected from various spectroscopic surveys, including SDSS SEGUE/APOGEE, GALAH DR3, and LAMOST DR6. We combine these results to construct an empirical colour–magnitude–metallicity grid, which can be used to estimate photometric metallicities for low-mass metal-poor stars of K and M subtypes from their absolute G magnitude and colour values. We find that low-mass, high-velocity stars in our catalogue share similar kinematics as reported in recent studies of more luminous Galactic halo stars. The pseudo-kinematic analysis of our sample recovers the main local halo structures, including the Gaia–Enceladus Stream and the Helmi stream; aside from these, the local halo stars appear to show a remarkably smooth distribution in velocity space. Since the future Gaia data release will provide radial velocity measurements for only a small number of our sample, our catalogue provides targets of high interest for the future spectroscopic observation programs.
Quantum Theory of Semiconductor Photo-Catalysis and Solar Water Splitting / Theory and Computation for Semiconductor Catalysis of Solar Water Splitting / Static and Dynamic Thermal Effects in Solids. Final Report
This is the final report. The finished research was published in 27 journal papers listed below. The topics fall roughly into seven categories: Photochemistry of water at the GaN ($10\bar{1}0$) surface; Quasiparticles: Band electrons and Anharmonic phonons; Quasiharmonic theory; Anharmonic lattice thermal conductivity; Water and Ice; Electron-phonon effects; and, Alloy theory.
Investigating Local Carrier Dynamics in PERC Patterned CdTe Solar Cells
Remarkable progress has been achieved in CdTe photovoltaics (PVs) to further improve cell performance while reducing manufacturing costs. Researchers optimized the front contact that leads the short-circuit current density (J sc ) over 31mA/cm 2 (e.g., (Zn, Mg)O buffer layer and/or alloying CdTe with Se). Reese et al. reported an open-circuit voltage (V oc ) over 1 V with group-V doped single crystal, showing the feasibility of increasing V oc in CdTe PV that is fixed to less than 900 mV in most cases. Recent studies suggested that the V oc improvement in polycrystalline CdTe PVs requires well-passivated back contact. One possible strategy is to use CdMgTe alloy (E g > 1.8 eV), where the band-gap offset (ΔE CB ≈ 0.2 eV) reflects minority carrier electrons, thereby decreasing surface recombination. Another strategy is to utilize a stable Al 2 O 3 layer as an electron reflector; experimental works confirmed the improved performance with a conformal Al 2 O 3 layer. In this configuration, the precise control of Al 2 O 3 (≈1 nm) over the entire CdTe layer is essential because the J sc greatly depends on the tunneling current. While promising, both CdMgTe and Al 2 O 3 passivation on CdTe introduce unfavorable valence band offset that blocks the hole transport. Kephart et al. proposed a patterned passixc vation layer (≈ 20 nm Al 2 O 3 ) with point contacts (≈ 3 μm in diameter) that extract hole carriers. This configuration is similar to the passive emitter and rear contact (PERC) design that has been extensively studied in Si PVs. While remarkably high carrier lifetime and photoluminescence (> 10 X) were measured, consistent improvement in V oc and efficiency in this CdTe PERC were not yet observed. At this time, it is unclear how the surface potential is distributed in the presence of patterned Al 2 O 3 reflectors and how this additional field impacts the PV performance for Cu-doped and group-V doped CdTe PERC devices. To tackle this challenge, we develop robust nanofabrication and characterization platform to study CdTe PERC devices consisting of a patterned Al 2 O 3 layer on CdSe( 1-x )Te x (Cu-doped, GrV-doped; x = 0 to 1; CST). First Solar supplies high-quality CST materials. The dark and light I-Vs under 1-sun illumination are extracted for a series of each set of devices. We perform quantitative and qualitative PV analysis for a series of Cu-doped and Gr-V doped PERC devices, showing notably different V oc changes for GrV-doped compared to Cu-doped PERC devices. This project attempts to produce individual contacts on single grains and grain boundaries to measure lateral transport. As a model system, we use a CdSe( 1-x )Te x film on glass prepared by a colossal grain growth (CGG) technique at National Renewable Research Laboratories (NREL). Our preliminary results confirm that intergranular transport is hindered by the electrical barrier formed near grain boundaries. The PERC fabrication and the lateral transport measurement platform developed in this project can easily be applied to other types of advanced CdSe( 1-x )Te x architectures to better understand local photocarrier transport, in turn, providing the fundamental knowledge to improve the performance of CdTe PVs.
Long-term Dynamical Stability in the Outer Solar System. I. The Regular and Chaotic Evolution of the 34 Largest Trans-Neptunian Objects
We carried out an extensive analysis of the stability of the outer solar system, making use of the frequency analysis technique over short-term integrations of nearly 100,000 test particles, as well as a statistical analysis of 200 1 Gyr long numerical simulations, which consider the mutual perturbations of the giant planets and the 34 largest trans-Neptunian objects (we have called all 34 objects “dwarf planets,” DPs, even if probably only the largest of them are true DPs). From the frequency analysis, we produced statistical diffusion maps for a wide region of the a–e phase-space plane; we also present the average diffusion time for orbits as a function of perihelion. We later turned our attention to the 34 DPs, making an individualized analysis for each of them and producing a first approximation of their future stability. From the 200 distinct realizations of the orbital evolution of the 34 DPs, we classified the sample into three categories, including 17 stable, 11 unstable, and 6 resonant objects; we also found that, statistically, two objects from the sample will leave the trans-Neptunian region within the next gigayear, most likely being ejected from the solar system, but with a nonnegligible probability of going inside the orbit of Neptune, either to collide with a giant planet or even falling to the inner solar system, where our simulations are no longer able to resolve their continuous evolution.
Mercury’s Chaotic Secular Evolution as a Subdiffusive Process
Abstract Mercury’s orbit can destabilize, generally resulting in a collision with either Venus or the Sun. Chaotic evolution can causeg 1 to decrease to the approximately constant value ofg 5 and create a resonance. Previous work has approximated the variation ing 1 as stochastic diffusion, which leads to a phenomological model that can reproduce the Mercury instability statistics of secular andN-body models on timescales longer than 10 Gyr. Here we show that the diffusive model significantly underpredicts the Mercury instability probability on timescales less than 5 Gyr, the remaining lifespan of the solar system. This is becauseg 1 exhibits larger variations on short timescales than the diffusive model would suggest. To better model the variations on short timescales, we build a new subdiffusive phenomological model forg 1 . Subdiffusion is similar to diffusion but exhibits larger displacements on short timescales and smaller displacements on long timescales. We choose model parameters based on the behavior of theg 1 trajectories in theN-body simulations, leading to a tuned model that can reproduce Mercury instability statistics from 1–40 Gyr. This work motivates fundamental questions in solar system dynamics: why does subdiffusion better approximate the variation ing 1 than standard diffusion? Why is there an upper bound ong 1 , but not a lower bound that would prevent it from reachingg 5 ?
Reinforced Hierarchical Probabilistic Solar Forecasting Tool based on Dynamic Multi-model Machine Learning Phase I Final Technical Report
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Particle transport-driven flow dynamics and heat transfer modulation in solar photovoltaic modules: Implications on soiling
Wind-swept debris and excessive heating reduce solar photovoltaic efficiency and accelerate panel degradation. For many solar plants in open environments, particle deposition is well-understood to exacerbate efficiency losses by blocking useable light and insulating panel surfaces. However, little is known about particle behavior in multi-panel systems, where complex wakes dominate and alter trajectories. This study examines debris-laden flow within a scaled array of two model solar panels, observing convective cooling and focusing on turbulent inter-panel flow dynamics. Convection is compared between the first and second panels (P 1 and P 2 ) and for a single inflow velocity at four particle concentrations (Φ v ), including a neutrally buoyant particle (i.e. tracer) case and three water droplet cases. Tracers and Φ v > 0 concentrations show increased convective heat transfer for P 2 compared to P 1 , while inertial particle presence and increased concentration reduces this improvement from +170% to +90%. Particle image velocimetry surrounding P 2 reveals dampened inter-panel wake features for particle-laden flow compared to the tracer case, where diminished mean flow and mean kinetic energy breakdown are observed for the particles due to their inertia. Together, the reduction in comparative convection and dampened wake effects accompanying inertial particle concentration motivates further studies on coupled array physics in debris-filled flow.