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DOE OSTI2024

Forecasting Solar Photovoltaic Power Production: A Comprehensive Review and Innovative Data-Driven Modeling Framework

The intermittent and stochastic nature of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) necessitates accurate power production prediction for effective scheduling and grid management. This paper presents a comprehensive review conducted with reference to a pioneering, comprehensive, and data-driven framework proposed for solar Photovoltaic (PV) power generation prediction. The systematic and integrating framework comprises three main phases carried out by seven main comprehensive modules for addressing numerous practical difficulties of the prediction task: phase I handles the aspects related to data acquisition (module 1) and manipulation (module 2) in preparation for the development of the prediction scheme; phase II tackles the aspects associated with the development of the prediction model (module 3) and the assessment of its accuracy (module 4), including the quantification of the uncertainty (module 5); and phase III evolves towards enhancing the prediction accuracy by incorporating aspects of context change detection (module 6) and incremental learning when new data become available (module 7). This framework adeptly addresses all facets of solar PV power production prediction, bridging existing gaps and offering a comprehensive solution to inherent challenges. By seamlessly integrating these elements, our approach stands as a robust and versatile tool for enhancing the precision of solar PV power prediction in real-world applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Analysis of a Solid Particle Light-Trapping Planar Cavity Receiver Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

Concentrated solar power (CSP) is one of the most effective ways of harnessing solar power to create efficient, durable, and resilient energy systems. This study entails thermal modeling and analysis of a novel central tower receiver configuration. This receiver uses solid particles as the heat transfer fluid (HTF), a promising option for third-generation CSP systems. The configuration considered here is the light-trapping planar cavity receiver (LTPCR) introduced by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. While heat transfer studies of various LTPCR subsystems have been done, system-level thermal analysis of the LTPCR receiver has not been attempted. This study also presents important sensitivity analyses of the operating parameters of the CSP system, which can help guide the design of future central tower receivers. This study employs Ansys Fluent as a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool to model fluid dynamics and heat transfer in the receiver, intending to quantify its thermal performance. The model seamlessly integrates Monte Carlo ray tracing data, which generates absorbed solar flux profiles from the heliostat field design, with the heat transfer characteristics of the fluidized particle bed. This unified model is designed to accurately predict the thermal behavior of the LTPCR. Analysis of preliminary results reveals that the primary loss mechanisms are radiative and natural convective losses, in that order. Based on observations from a baseline case, several strategies are suggested and numerically tested. These solutions include selective cooling of high-temperature regions and manipulation of particle bed parameters. Selective cooling of high-temperature regions reduced the peak temperature by 151 degrees C and decreased thermal losses by 0.9%. Improving the particle-wall heat transfer coefficient (P-W HTC) of the particle bed decreased the thermal losses by 1.7% and decreased the peak temperatures by 57 degrees C. Decreasing the particle inlet temperature (PIT) also reduced thermal losses by 3.5% and decreased peak temperatures by 29 degrees C. Compounding these strategies improved the thermal losses of the receiver from 13.5% in the baseline case to 7.5%. Additionally, the study explores the variation in thermal performance across different locations of the receiver, where a variation of thermal losses from 12.9% to 17.3% is found. This allows a comprehensive evaluation of potential improvements in efficiency and temperature management.

computational fluid dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Case Studies and Parametric Analysis of Heliostat Performance With a Tradeoff-Informed Technoeconomic Analysis Metric

The Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon) was launched in 2021 to advance heliostat technology. Here this work presents a collection of baseline case studies for the technoeconomic analysis (TEA) of candidate heliostat improvements for concentrating solar power (CSP) and concentrated solar thermal (CST) systems that employ central receivers. The case studies we develop include a large-scale CSP plant, a smaller, modular CSP plant, and a small CST plant used for industrial process heat. In this work, we also propose a novel metric for TEA of a plant component technology that recasts relative changes in levelized system costs into component-specific capital cost budgets. This measure, which we refer to as the equivalent breakeven installed cost, is the maximum budget for the technology component that leads to improved levelized costs. Finally, we perform a parametric analysis to show the impact of candidate technologies on the levelized cost of heat and, by extension, equivalent breakeven installed cost.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multilayer Silicon Carbide Composite Material Technology for High-Temperature Concentrated Solar-Thermal Power Components

In 2012, the U.S Department of Energy defined aggressive targets to achieve lower component costs and higher system efficiencies for concentrated solar-thermal power (CSP), and this, in turn, has led to the exploration of technology options that can operate at higher temperatures [1]. These next-generation CSP options, referred to as Generation 3 (a.k.a. Gen3), are targeting temperatures at or above 700 °C for the energy being delivered to the power cycle, and the more challenging plant conditions have necessitated a review and selection of alternative receiver heat transfer fluids as well as a search for materials that can meet the associated high-temperature component requirements. Nickel-based alloys are currently being considered, but these generally experience a significant drop in strength at temperatures > 775 °C [2] and may not be able to achieve corrosion and other lifetime requirements. Furthermore, these alloys are expensive, frequently have cost and schedule volatility, and offer little potential for lower cost at high production volumes. As an alternative, Ceramic Tubular Products, LLC (CTP) has developed a multilayer silicon carbide composite that can complement or replace alloys currently being considered for these Gen3 CSP applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Neural Network-Based Power Mismatch Elimination Strategy for Integrated Solar and ESS AC/DC Systems (MARS)

The multiport autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS) is a promising concept for the integration of photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage system (ESS) to the transmission ac grid and a high-voltage direct current (HVdc) link. The presence of PV and ESS in each arm of the MARS results in uneven distribution of active power among different submodules (SMs), thereby leading to unbalanced SM capacitor voltages and potentially compromising the system stability. Moreover, in the case of partial shadings, shaded PV SMs will suffer from decreased power injections causing power mismatch in the MARS system. To address this issue, a neural-network-based power mismatch elimination (NNPME) strategy is proposed in this article. The proposed NNPME strategy optimizes ESS usage and leverages both dc and ac circulating currents to facilitate power transfer among the SMs, arms, and phases of the MARS system. Simulation and control hardware-in-the-loop (cHIL) experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed NNPME strategy. Compared with the traditional approaches, the proposed NNPME strategy can significantly enhance system efficiency and ensure stable and continuous operation, even in the presence of uneven power distribution within the MARS system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A banner year for solar balloon technology

Solar-powered stratospheric balloons achieved major advancements in test flights, developmental milestones, and operational achievements this year. A solar-powered stratospheric balloon system known as the heliotrope, has emerged as a low-cost platform capable of carrying several pounds of scientific payload to altitudes ranging from 50,000 to 75,000 feet (Bowman et al., 2020; Image 1) for multi-hour level flights. This innovative system has facilitated groundbreaking scientific discoveries in areas such as infrasound and atmospheric composition. Unlike sealed weather balloons that burst, these balloons remain buoyant by retaining hot air within their open envelopes. Because they are solar-powered, they remain aloft as long as the sun remains unobscured.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Education for PV Modeling Professionals: Observations from the 2025 PVPMC Workshop

We surveyed professionals in the photovoltaic industry to understand interests in education and training for performance modeling of solar power systems. We found that most professionals are self-taught and rely on a variety of public sources of technical materials. Available formal education, such as courses or certification programs, either lacks detail or is focused on software user training. Responses indicate several opportunities to create public resources that would benefit professional learning for solar power system modeling: • Create a glossary of terms and common variable names. • Develop guidance on uncertainty analysis in the context of solar power systems modeling. • Assemble a catalog of available educational materials and data sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optical properties enhancement of thermal energy media for consistently high solar absorptivity

This study aimed to evaluate the optical properties of particles intended for use as thermal energy absorbers in generation 3 concentrated solar power systems. Their characterization involved UV–Vis NIR measurements with an integrating sphere for solar absorptivity, while a reflectometer was employed to measure thermal emittance. By combining absorptivity and emittance data, the solar absorption efficiency was calculated. Laser flash analysis, differential scanning calorimetry, and thermogravimetric analysis were utilized to determine thermal conductivity and specific heat. The solar absorptivity of the particles was initially measured at 0.90. After exposure to air at 1000 °C, it decreased to 0.73. However, following a reduction process, the particle recovered absorptivity of 0.90. The thermal aging and recovery were repeated multiple times, consistently achieving an absorptivity of 0.90. The thermal conductivity of the particles ranged from 0.50 to 0.88 W/(m-K). Solar absorptivity was found to be influenced by the types of iron oxide present in the particles. Particles with a predominance of hematite exhibited decreased solar absorptivity, while those containing magnetite, wüstite, and iron showed increased absorptivity. The estimated cost of the developed particles was more than ten times lower than that of current products. Given that component costs significantly impact the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), this price reduction corresponded to an 8 % decrease in LCOE compared to other products. The low-cost thermal energy media show great promise for contributing to a reduced LCOE in the third generation of concentrating solar power systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling and Experimental Demonstration of Flux Spreading in Light Trapping Planar-Cavity Solar Enclosed Particle Receivers

This study experimentally validates and numerically models the flux-spreading effect in a light-trapping planar-cavity solar receiver) for particle-based concentrating solar power systems. The receiver's shallow cavity with vertical planar walls redistributes concentrated solar flux, reducing peak intensity and achieving uniform heat flux. On-sun tests at National Renewable Energy Laboratory's High-Flux Solar Furnace under flux up to 1500 kW/m2 measured cavity wall temperatures, which were compared with Monte Carlo ray-tracing (SolTrace) and computational numerical simulations. Three angular absorptance models were evaluated: constant absorptance, a Pyromark-based directional model, and a Fresnel-based Cr2O3 model. The Fresnel-derived model showed the best agreement with experiments, achieving high correlation (PC > 0.85), structural similarity (SSIM > 0.98), and signal-to-noise ratios (PSNR > 40 dB), with temperature prediction errors of 1-11%. Results confirm that flux spreading mitigates local overheating and validate the integrated modeling approach, supporting the solar receiver scalability for high-efficiency, high-temperature concentrating solar power applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Damage modeling of power tower receiver tubes using the SRLIFE tool

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) molten-salt central receivers are subject to high, transient incident flux during daily operation. The resulting creep-fatigue damage impacts the receiver’s reliability and restricts the permissible incident flux distribution for a given receiver. This paper aims to reduce CSP plants’ levelized cost of electricity by developing a methodology to predict lifetime and identifies the primary damage mechanism (creep vs fatigue) for any given fluid temperature and temperature gradient. Results are presented in the form of a damage map that serves as a valuable operation guide and design tool. Damage maps can be used to reduce maintenance costs by improving reliability and reduce receiver capital costs by better utilizing the receiver area. FEA simulation and damage modeling of tubes subject to asymmetrical flux conditions is performed in the open-source receiver design tool srlife. Parametric studies are performed over a range of inner tube temperatures and thermal gradients for A230, 316H, 740H, A282, A617, and 800H high temperature alloys. Damage maps are presented for each alloy. A parametric, FEA-based methodology is presented for comparison of fatigue-creep ratios and prediction of tube lifetime based on the critical thermal operating conditions. Fatigue is found to be negligible compared to creep for almost every case. Here, this finding suggests that fatigue effects associated with cloud events are insignificant compared to creep at these high temperature operating conditions. Additionally, lifetime predictions identify thermal conditions where small changes in operating conditions can result in large changes in predicted lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Advanced Cooling Device for Concentrated Photovoltaic Systems

Concentrated photovoltaics (CPV) have the potential to significantly enhance the energy conversion utilization of solar panels and reduce solar generation costs, making them a crucial area of advancement in solar power generation technology. However, the concentration of sunlight can lead to overheating of solar panels, resulting in a notable reduction in both the efficiency of solar power generation and the lifespan of the panels. This challenge remains the predominant technical hurdle that hinders the application of concentrated photovoltaic power generation technology. In this study, we propose a new cooling method for concentrated photovoltaic power generation systems via an integrated approach of incorporating Phase-Change Thermal Storage (PCTS) and Thermoelectric Generator (TEG) technology. This new method not only enhances the overall system's electricity generation efficiency but also effectively resolves the technical challenge of concentrated photovoltaic panel overheating issues, ensuring the continuity of concentrated photovoltaic power generation and extending the lifespan of solar panels and their components. In order to make full use of the wasted heat generated by photovoltaic power generation and effectively improve the power generation efficiency of the system, this work developed a phase change heat storage device based on a phase change material. This device uses the temperature difference between day and night to recover wasted heat from photovoltaic power generation. Through integration with the thermoelectric power generation system, thermal energy can be converted into electrical energy. In addition, the Peltier effect of thermoelectric materials is used to construct a photovoltaic panel overheating protection system, which significantly improves the reliability and service life of the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Advanced Cooling Device for Concentrated Photovoltaic Systems

Gou, Yimeng↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed machine learning for solar-thermal power systems

Not Available

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Understanding failure in austenitic steels: Key considerations for molten salt storage in CSP applications

Owing to their excellent properties, austenitic stainless steels are extensively used in boilers, furnaces, molten salt tanks, and other applications that are subjected to extreme mechanical loads and high-temperature conditions. Their high corrosion and creep resistance make them suitable for high-temperature operating environments. Additionally, good fatigue resistance and favorable mechanical and visual properties are essential. However, the premature failure of several components at elevated temperatures has been previously reported. Although the failure analysis of components in service is complex, processes such as cold work and welding have been identified as contributing factors to the performance degradation of these steels. This study aims to analyze the various documented failure modes and mechanisms in austenitic steels, including creep, cracking, stress relaxation cracking, and fatigue, to better understand the multi-objective design requirements for these alloys as structural materials for high-temperature molten salt tanks in Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. Stabilized austenitic grades, such as AISI 347H, demonstrate superior resistance to creep and corrosion-related degradation when compared to non-stabilized grades like AISI 316L at temperatures relevant to concentrated solar power (CSP) applications. In contrast, nickel-based alloys offer enhanced corrosion resistance, albeit at a higher cost. This review underscores that creep, stress relaxation cracking, and thermo-mechanical fatigue are the predominant long-term failure risks in CSP hot tanks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

NiCrMoNb age hardenable alloy for creep-resistant high temperature applications, and methods of making

Nickel alloys, methods of making nickel alloys, articles including the nickel alloys, uses of the alloys, and methods of treating nickel alloys are described. The inventive heat resistant structural materials are suitable for applications requiring high yield stress at room temperature and good creep strength at high temperatures, such as in gas turbines, steam turbines, fossil energy boilers, aero engines, power generation systems using fluids such as supercritical carbon dioxide (e.g., advanced ultra-supercritical power plants), concentrated solar power plants, nuclear power plants, molten salt reactors: turbine blades, casings, valves, heat exchangers and recuperators.

Detrois, Martin↗

DOE OSTI2025

CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market (“CalCSP”) (Final Technical Report)

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) with thermal energy storage offers a unique and strategic opportunity to support California’s clean energy transition. Unlike photovoltaic (PV) systems, CSP with thermal storage can generate electricity after sunset and during periods of high demand, making it a valuable complement to intermittent renewable resources. CSP also provides synchronous, inertia-contributing generation, long-duration storage, and flexible dispatch—capabilities increasingly important as thermal plants retire. This report summarizes the findings of the CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market or “CalCSP study,” which evaluated the technical, economic, environmental, and policy factors that influence the deployment of CSP technologies in California. The CalCSP study was conducted to assess how CSP can contribute to California’s long-term decarbonization goals while enhancing grid reliability, supporting local economic development, and making efficient use of land and transmission resources. It draws on detailed modeling of CSP performance and costs, site suitability analysis, policy reviews, and stakeholder engagement across utilities, regulators, developers, and community organizations. The analysis focuses on mature molten-salt tower technology and incorporates lessons learned from the global CSP fleet, distinguishing today’s CSP from earlier first-of-a-kind projects in the U.S. The findings support a more prominent role for CSP in California’s evolving clean energy landscape. With strategic planning, targeted policy support, and continued cost improvements, CSP can complement PV and batteries to deliver reliable, around-the-clock clean electricity—especially in areas with high solar resource and constrained grid capacity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Review and Gap Analysis of Heliostat Components and Controls

This investigation provides a comprehensive literature review pertaining to heliostat components and controls as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Heliostat Consortium (Heliocon) program. Here, this work presents a detailed assessment of subcomponents, controls and wireless communications elements that comprise various designs of helisotats within concentrating solar power (CSP) installations. Additionally, this work also provides the results of an industry survey, intended to compliment the literature discussion, to provide a gap analysis of the primary technology and cost areas that need to be addressed to help improved to spur concentrating solar power (CSP) bankability. Although the results of the study determined several key areas for development, three strategic areas identified were: (1) the use of advanced composite materials to replace a need for expensive steel within the structure and mirror substrate, (2) employment of closed-loop controls for automated calibration, reduction of commissioning time and O&M hours, reduction of drive requirements, as well as overall cost reduction, and (3) the need for more Heliostat-centric codes and standards to facilitate engineering confidence in the development of new features, cost reductions, or other design iterations to be seamlessly introduced without optical performance problems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗