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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Water Quality in Indo-Gangetic Plain of South-Eastern Asia under Organic vs. Conventional Rice Farming

Water contamination is often reported in agriculturally intensive areas such as the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) in south-eastern Asia. We evaluated the impact of the organic and conventional farming of basmati rice on water quality during the rainy season (July to October) of 2011 and 2016 at Kaithal, Haryana, India. The study area comprised seven organic and seven conventional fields where organic farming has been practiced for more than two decades. Water quality parameters used for drinking (nitrate, NO 3 ; total dissolved solids (TDS); electrical conductivity (EC) pH) and irrigation (sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) and residual sodium carbonate (RSC)) purposes were below permissible limits for all samples collected from organic fields and those from conventional fields over the long-term (~15 and ~20 years). Importantly, the magnitude of water NO 3 contamination in conventional fields was approximately double that of organic fields, which is quite alarming and needs attention in future for farming practices in the IGP in south-eastern Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Contrasting aerosol effects on longwave cloud forcing in South East Asia and Amazon simulated with Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3

Aerosols modify cloud microphysical and radiative properties and thus impact the shortwave (SW) and longwave cloud forcing (LWCF). This study first reports the finding of contrasting aerosol effects on LWCF in South East Asia and Amazon in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3), which corresponds to the sum of LW indirect and semi-direct effects investigated in Ghan et al., (2012). A series of numerical experiments is conducted to decompose the complex aerosol effects on LWCF. Our analysis indicates that the cooling (negative aerosol effects on LWCF) in Amazon is due mainly to the aerosol effects on warm clouds and the inhibition of vertical motion by the aerosol-induced radiative cooling. In contrast, the warming (positive aerosol effects on LWCF) in South East Asia is due mainly to the aerosol effect on homogeneous freezing, thus reducing the ice particle size and prolonging the existence of ice cloud. Our results emphasize that a comprehensive analysis of integrated aerosol effects on both warm and ice clouds is necessary for better understanding the aerosol effects on LWCF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerosols Delay the Emergence of Greenhouse Gas Forcing on 21st Century South Asian Monsoon Precipitation By Several Decades

Anthropogenic aerosols (AERs) affect several aspects of the climate system across the world through radiative forcing and microphysical effects. These influences are particularly strong across South Asia, where AER concentrations are highest and further projected to increase in coming decades. Using large ensemble experiments from Earth system model, we examine how AERs shape the evolution of seasonal precipitation over South Asia inlate 20th century and 21st century climate in the presence of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations. We find that AERs strongly reduce monsoon precipitation, moderately reduce post-monsoon precipitation, and negligibly influence pre-monsoon precipitation. Consequently, AERs delay the emergence of GHG-forced increases in precipitation by ~5 decades in the monsoon season and ~1 decade in the post-monsoon season. However, GHGs are projected to outpace the influence of AERs by mid 21st century, causing a steep intensification of monsoon and post-monsoon precipitation. We further show that local AERs have the strongest influence on precipitation in the monsoon and post monsoon seasons in the near-future (2020-2049). However, the contribution from remote AERs changes is also important in shaping the monsoon precipitation changes over northwestern South Asia. Further, the influence of local AERs monsoon precipitation remains stationary throughout the 21st century, indicating the insensitivity of relationship between local AOD and precipitation to the projected warming. A better understanding of aerosol-climate interactions and associated precipitation responses in is pertinent for policymakers to address the critical aspect of regional consequences over South Asia induced by externally forced climate change.

Aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2002

Simulation of the Climate of South-West Asia with a Regional Model

The ability of the regional model RegCM2 to simulate the climate of South-West Asia is examined. The climate of the region displays high spatial, seasonal and interannual variability, providing a strong test of climate model capabilities. RegCM2 captures the spatial variability of temperature and precipitation despite cold biases being present in the model. RegCM2 does not capture the annual cycle of precipitation on the Black and Caspian Sea coasts where very steep topography exists, nor on the eastern Mediterranean coast where the coastal mountains are not resolvable. RegCM2 does capture the seasonal cycle in the Fertile Crescent and Zagros mountains, where it is strongly influenced by a plateau circulation above the Iranian plateau. It is shown that accurate simulation of precipitation in these regions, including the inter-annual variability, requires the correct simulation of both storm tracks and topographic interactions. Through the use of regional climate models the concentration and transport pathways of water vapor through the Middle East can be explored. The results demonstrate that short lived 'events' have little impact on monthly mean atmospheric fields yet provide a significant amount of the precipitated water which flows in the Tigris river.

Evans, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Anthropogenic Aerosols Delay the Emergence of GHGs-Forced Wetting of South Asian Rainy Seasons Under a Fossil-Fuel Intensive Pathway

With continued fossil-fuel dependence, anthropogenic aerosols over South Asia are projected to increase until the mid-21st century along with greenhouse gases (GHGs). Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Large Ensemble, we quantify the influence of aerosols and GHGs on South Asian seasonal precipitation patterns over the 21st century under a very high-emissions (RCP 8.5) trajectory. We find that increasing local aerosol concentrations could continue to suppress precipitation over South Asia in the near-term, delaying the emergence of precipitation increases in response to GHGs by several decades in the monsoon season and a decade in the post-monsoon season. Emergence of this wetting signal is expected in both seasons by the mid-21st century. Our results demonstrate that the trajectory of local aerosols together with GHGs will shape near-future precipitation patterns over South Asia. Therefore, constraining precipitation response to different trajectories of both forcers is critical for informing near-term adaptation efforts.

anthropogenic aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2024

Session 3: Agrivoltaics Pathways [Slides]

This presentation was developed for a webinar series for the USAID's South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE) and South Asia Regional Energy Partnership (SAREP). The presentation includes insights into agrivoltaic site assessment planning, including what is needed for a farm assessment, solar panel system design from the agricultural perspective, variables that go into crop selection, and environmental impact, sustainability, and agritourism, technical parameters for developing an agrivoltaics project, including what makes up a PV feasibility study, understanding variables that go into technology and equipment selection, agrivoltaic installation and agricultural integration, and monitoring and maintenance throughout the life of the project, and agrivoltaic financial planning, risk mitigation, and debt equity issues.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Source Contributions to Fine Particulate Matter and Attributable Mortality in India and the Surrounding Region

Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is a leading mortality risk factor in India and the surrounding region of South Asia. This study evaluates the contribution of emission sectors and fuels to PM 2.5 mass for 29 states in India and 6 surrounding countries (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar) by combining source-specific emission estimates, stretched grid simulations from a chemical transport model, high resolution hybrid PM 2.5 , and disease-specific mortality estimates. We find that 1.02 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.78-1.26) million deaths in South Asia attributable to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019 were primarily from three leading sectors: residential combustion (28%), industry (15%), and power generation (12%). Solid biofuel is the leading combustible fuel contributing to the PM 2.5 -attributable mortality (31%), followed by coal (17%), and oil and gas (14%). State-level analyses reveal higher residential combustion contributions (35%-39%) in states (Delhi, Uttar-Pradesh, Haryana) with high ambient PM 2.5 (>95 µg/m 3 ). The combined mortality burden associated with residential combustion (ambient) and household air pollution (HAP) in India is 0.72 million (95% CI:0.54-0.89) (68% attributable to HAP, 32% attributable to residential combustion). Our results illustrate the potential to reduce PM 2.5 mass and improve population health by reducing emissions from traditional energy sources across multiple sources in South Asia.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
NASA NTRS2017

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for localized intense rainfall events) observed in the region can be a key factor for managed ecosystems and water management and could also lead to more incidence of severe urban flooding. The results could be used to assess both mitigation and adaptation alternatives to reduce vulnerabilities in managed ecosystems (agricultural and urban) and water resources.

agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Overview of Policies Influencing Air Pollution from the Electricity Sector in Central Asia

The electricity sector is a substantial source of air pollution and associated health problems in Central Asia and elsewhere. Fossil-fueled power plants emit a wide variety of harmful pollutants and their chemical precursors. The pollutants with the greatest health impacts are particulate matter and ozone. Once released into the atmosphere, there is no practical way to remove air pollutants, which means that policies designed to improve air quality have to limit the pollutants before release. However, tackling such pollution is challenging, particularly in developing economies, due to the need to provide electricity as a basic necessity for citizens and as an engine of economic growth. This report provides examples of policies impacting air pollution from the electricity sector in the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It is a partner publication to an earlier report that addressed policies in South Asia. As with the South Asia report, information on policies in some countries was difficult to locate; therefore, this is not a comprehensive study, but rather an overview or "scan" of the sector that includes examples of: (1) policies that directly regulate air quality by limiting emissions from specific point sources (by restricting operating hours, for instance); and (2) indirect policies that incentivize or disincentivize polluting activities, such as policies to encourage fuel switching to or from cleaner renewable resources. Note that this report was prepared before the Russia-Ukraine conflict and therefore doesn't address consequences of that war for Central Asia. The report finds: (1) That Central Asian countries typically have relatively few policy instruments available for regulating national air emissions; (2) That many countries, especially those that have a mismatch between seasonal demand and resource availability, could improve energy security and reduce air pollution through increased cross-border electricity trade; (3) That some countries have seemingly contradictory policies (promoting both coal and renewables, for instance). This report is also available in Russian: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/85192.pdf.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Ozone Precursor Emissions from Four World Regions on Tropospheric Composition and Radiative Climate Forcing

Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO4 (sup 2-)). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO4 (sup 2-) and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean plus or minus 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 plus or minus 0.6 to 1.7 2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (-162.6 plus or minus 2 mWm(sup -2) for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (-0.4 plus or minus 0.2 to 0.7 plus or minus 0.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1) and CO emissions (-0.13 plus or minus 0.02 to -0.15 plus or minus 0.02 mWm(sup-2)/Tg CO yr(sup-1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by -1.9 to- 5.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), -0.2 to -0.7 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1), and -0.02 to -0.05 mWm(sup -2)/ Tg CO yr(sup -1). Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO4 (sup -2), regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO4 2 responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 plus or minus 2.6 to -1.9 plus or minus 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 plus or minus 1.2 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and -0.09 plus or minus 0.5 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP(sub 100)) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 plus or minus 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 plus or minus 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (18.7 plus or minus 25.9 to 1.9 plus or minus 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 plus or minus 1.7 to 8.3 plus or minus 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 plus or minus 0.4 to 1.7 plus or minus 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP(sub 100) for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

ozone↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) Model: A Geospatial Platform for Technical Potential and Supply Curve Modeling

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a platform for detailed assessment of renewable energy (RE) resources and their geospatial intersection with grid infrastructure and land use characteristics. The reV model currently supports photovoltaic (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and land-based wind turbine technologies. Modules in the reV framework function at different spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing for assessment of resource potential, technical potential and supply curves at varying levels of detail. The platform runs on NREL's High Performance Computing system, providing scalable and efficient performance from a single location all the way up to continental scales, for a single year or decades of time series resource data. Coupled with NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM), reV supports resource assessment from 5-minute to hourly temporal resolution and provides for analysis of long-term (i.e., year-on-year) variability of RE generation (e.g., interannual variability and exceedance probabilities). Technical potential is measured as a function of resource potential and limitations put on developable land area defined by the user. For example, the user can limit development by land ownership, terrain, land use/cover, and urban areas, as well as custom inputs. Technology, grid interconnection and operation costs, based on the latest market data and future projections, are also embedded in the model. The supply curve module is a spatial sorting algorithm based on plant siting, grid interconnection cost, and regional competition, which provides a geographically discrete estimate of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and supply (i.e., capacity) for specific renewable technologies. The reV model currently provides broad coverage across North America, South and Central Asia, South America and South Africa to inform national- and international-scale analyses as well as regional infrastructure and deployment planning.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2013

Radiative Forcing in the ACCMIP Historical and Future Climate Simulations

A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model IntercomparisonProject (ACCMIP) was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historicaland 5 future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of whichalso participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol opticaldepth (AOD) relatively well. components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East10 Asia. The models generally capture 1980-2000 AOD trends fairly well, though theyunderpredict AOD increases over the YellowEastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, SouthAmerica and Southern Hemisphere Africa.We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing AF, including direct andindirect effects). The models calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global meanannual average RF ranges from 0.06 to 0.49 W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.26 W m(sup -2) and a median of 0.27 W m(sup -2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some modelsbrings the range to 0.12 to 0.62W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.39W m(sup -2). Screen20ing the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes ofAOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of 0.42W m(sup -2) and range of0.33 to 0.50 W m(sup -2) (accounting for missing components). The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIPmodels spans 0.06 to 0.49W m(sup -2), suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likelyhave too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not well quantified, contribution to histori25cal aerosol RF may come from climate feedbacks (35 to 58). The mean aerosol AF during this period is 1.12W m(sup -2) (median value 1.16W m(sup -2), range 0.72 to1.44W m(sup -2), indicating that adjustments to aerosols, which include cloud, water vaporand temperature, lead to stronger forcing than the aerosol direct RF.

Climate Models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Building Capacity: Solar Photovoltaics Site Assessment and Feasibility Study

While Bhutan is abundant with clean energy hydropower, there are dry months in winter when solar energy could reduce expensive power inputs and bolster Bhutan's energy resilience and independence. As the country explores solar photovoltaic (PV) development as an option to achieve that goal, grid planners and renewable energy experts are partnering with the South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE) to determine the benefits and challenges of building solar energy systems in Bhutan.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2018

Distinct Influences of Land Cover and Land Management on Seasonal Climate

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change is primarily represented in climate model simulations through prescribed transitions from natural vegetation to cropland or pasture. However, recent studies have demonstrated that land management practices, especially irrigation, have distinct climate impacts. Here we disentangle the seasonal climate impacts of land cover change and irrigation across areas of high agricultural intensity using climate simulations with three different land surface scenarios: (1) natural vegetation cover/no irrigation, (2) year 2000 crop cover/no irrigation, and (3) year 2000 crop cover and irrigation rates. We find that irrigation substantially amplifies land cover‐induced climate impacts but has opposing effects across certain regions. Irrigation mostly causes surface cooling, which substantially amplifies land cover change‐induced cooling in most regions except over Central, West, and South Asia, where it reverses land cover change‐induced warming. Despite increases in net surface radiation in some regions, this cooling is associated with enhancement of latent relative to sensible heat fluxes by irrigation. Similarly, irrigation substantially enhances the wetting influence of land cover change over several regions including West Asia and the Mediterranean. The most notable contrasting impacts of these forcings on precipitation occur over South Asia, where irrigation offsets the wetting influence of land cover during the monsoon season. Differential changes in regional circulations and moist static energy induced by these forcings contribute to their precipitation impacts and are associated with differential changes in surface and tropospheric temperature gradients and moisture availability. These results emphasize the importance of including irrigation forcing to evaluate the combined impacts of land surface changes for attributing historical climatic changes and managing future impacts.

Singh, Deepti↗
NASA NTRS2012

Satellite Remote Sensing of Snow/Ice Albedo over the Himalayas

The Himalayan glaciers and snowpacks play an important role in the hydrological cycle over Asia. The seasonal snow melt from the Himalayan glaciers and snowpacks is one of the key elements to the livelihood of the downstream densely populated regions of South Asia. During the pre-monsoon season (April-May-June), South Asia not only experiences the reversal of the regional meridional tropospheric temperature gradient (i.e., the onset of the summer monsoon), but also is being bombarded by dry westerly airmass that transports mineral dust from various Southwest Asian desert and arid regions into the Indo-Gangetic Plains in northern India. Mixed with heavy anthropogenic pollution, mineral dust constitutes the bulk of regional aerosol loading and forms an extensive and vertically extended brown haze lapping against the southern slopes of the Himalayas. Episodic dust plumes are advected over the Himalayas, and are discernible in satellite imagery, resulting in dust-capped snow surface. Motivated by the potential implications of accelerated snowmelt, we examine the changes in radiative energetics induced by aerosol transport over the Himalayan snow cover by utilizing space borne observations. Our objective lies in the investigation of potential impacts of aerosol solar absorption on the Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) spectral reflectivity and the broadband albedo, and hence the accelerated snowmelt, particularly in the western Himalayas. Lambertian Equivalent Reflectivity (LER) in the visible and near-infrared wavelengths, derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer radiances, is used to generate statistics for determining perturbation caused due to dust layer over snow surface in over ten years of continuous observations. Case studies indicate significant reduction of LER ranging from 5 to 8% in the 412-860nm spectra. Broadband flux observations, from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System, are also used to investigate changes in shortwave TOA flux over dust-laden and dust-free snow covered regions. Additionally, spatio-temporal and intra-seasonal variations of LER, along with snow cover information, are used to characterize the seasonal melt pattern and thus to distinguish the outstanding aerosol-induced snowmelt signal. Results from this observational work are expected to provide better understanding of the radiative impact of aerosols over snow surface, especially its role in the Himalayan hydro-glacialogical variability.

Hsu, N. Christina↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapid mini‐chromosome divergence among fungal isolates causing wheat blast outbreaks in Bangladesh and Zambia

Summary The fungal pathogen,Magnaporthe oryzae Triticumpathotype, causing wheat blast disease was first identified in South America and recently spread across continents to South Asia and Africa. Here, we studied the genetic relationship among isolates found on the three continents. Magnaporthe oryzaestrains closely related to a South American field isolate B71 were found to have caused the wheat blast outbreaks in South Asia and Africa. Genomic variation among isolates from the three continents was examined using an improved B71 reference genome and whole‐genome sequences. We found strong evidence to support that the outbreaks in Bangladesh and Zambia were caused by the introductions of genetically separated isolates, although they were all close to B71 and, therefore, collectively referred to as the B71 branch. In addition, B71 branch strains carried at least one supernumerary mini‐chromosome. Genome assembly of a Zambian strain revealed that its mini‐chromosome was similar to the B71 mini‐chromosome but with a high level of structural variation. Our findings show that while core genomes of the multiple introductions are highly similar, the mini‐chromosomes have undergone marked diversification. The maintenance of the mini‐chromosome and rapid genomic changes suggest the mini‐chromosomes may serve important virulence or niche adaptation roles under diverse environmental conditions.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability

Monsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict summer monsoon precipitation variability by using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation from one year to 6–9 years ahead. However, this skill is dependent on the model, monsoon domain, and lead-time. In general, the skill of the multi-model ensemble-mean prediction is low in year 1 but increases for longer-lead times and is largely consistent with externally forced changes. The best captured region is northern Africa for the 2–5 and 6–9 year forecast lead times. In contrast, there is no significant skill using the ensemble-mean over East and South Asia and, furthermore, there is significant spread in skill among models for these domains. By sub-sampling the ensemble we show that the difference in skill between models is tied to the simulation of the externally forced response over East and South Asia, with models with a more skilful forced response capable of better predictions. A further contribution is from skilful prediction of Pacific Ocean temperatures for the South Asian summer monsoon at longer lead-times. Therefore, these results indicate that predictions of the East and South Asian monsoons could be significantly improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiocarbon Fingerprinting Black Carbon Source History in the Himalayas

Abstract Black carbon (BC) is considered as an important contributor to the Himalayan glaciers melt in the past few decades. However, the long‐term source apportionment of BC remains unclear. Here we present the first radiocarbon ( 14 C)‐based annual variation of BC source apportionment in an ice core spanning the period of 1959–2012 drilled from the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, a receptor site of South Asia outflow. We find fossil fuel combustion is a major contribution (73% ± 5%), yet the biomass burning fraction ( ƒ biomass ) has grown from 24% ± 4% to 30% ± 4% since 1990. Intriguingly, we further find the ƒ biomass demonstrating a robust correlation with South Asian wildfires linked to climate oscillations. Thus, for mitigating BC impacts on Himalayan glaciers, South Asia's transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is a more efficient and urgent strategy than reducing residential biomass burning.

Wang, Mo [State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau ↗