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At least 73 records · Page 4

Optimal post-experiment estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems

Recently, a novel strategy for post-experiment state estimation of discretely-measured dynamic systems has been developed. The method accounts for errors in the system dynamic model equations in a more general and rigorous manner than do filter-smoother algorithms. The dynamic model error terms do not require the usual process noise assumptions of zero-mean, symmetrically distributed random disturbances. Instead, the model error terms require no prior assumptions other than piecewise continuity. The resulting state estimates are more accurate than filters for applications in which the dynamic model error clearly violates the typical process noise assumptions, and the available measurements are sparse and/or noisy. Estimates of the dynamic model error, in addition to the states, are obtained as part of the solution of a two-point boundary value problem, and may be exploited for numerous reasons. In this paper, the basic technique is explained, and several example applications are given. Included among the examples are both state estimation and exploitation of the model error estimates.

Mook, D. Joseph↗

Theoretical expectations for bulk flows in large-scale surveys

We calculate the theoretical expectation for the bulk motion of a large-scale survey of the type recently carried out by Lauer and Postman. Included are the effects of survey geometry, errors in the distance measurements, clustering properties of the sample, and different assumed power spectra. We considered the power spectrum calculated from the Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS)-QDOT survey, as well as spectra from hot + cold and standard cold dark matter models. We find that measurement uncertainty, sparse sampling, and clustering can lead to a much larger expectation for the bulk motion of a cluster sample than for the volume as a whole. However, our results suggest that the expected bulk motion is still inconsistent with that reported by Lauer and Postman at the 95%-97% confidence level.

Feldman, Hume A.↗

Climate Variability in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas

Satellite data reveal a 20% decline in sea ice extent in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas in the two decades following 1973. This change is negatively correlated with surface air temperatures on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula, which have increased -0.5 C / decade- since the mid-1940s, The recession was strongest during summer, when monthly average minima in 1991-92 removed much of the incipient multiyear ice over the continental shelf. This would have lowered the regional-mean ice thickness, impacting snow ice formation, brine production, and vertical heat flux. The northern ice edge contracted by 1 deg of latitude in all seasons from 1973-79 to 1987-93, returning toward mean conditions in 1993-95. The decline included multiyear cycles of several years in length, superimposed on high interannual variability. A review of atmospheric forcing shows winds consistent with mean and extreme ice extents, and suggests links to larger-scale circulation changes in the South Pacific. Historical ocean measurements are sparse in this sector, but mixed-layer depths and upper pycnoclines beneath the sea ice resemble those in the Weddell Sea. Weaker surface currents or changes in the upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water on the continental shelf could have contributed to the anomaly persistence.

Jacobs, Stanley S.↗

Image Dis-Integration for Improved Plasmasphere Visualization

Traditionally, study of the plasmasphere has involved terrestrial observation of local characteristics. Global modeling of the plasmasphere in such an observation regime made use of an ensemble of (sparse) local measurements. Recently, sensors aboard the IMAGE (Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration) satellite (in particular, the EUV (Extreme Ultra Violet) Imager) have created the potential for truly global study of the plasmasphere. IMAGE was launched in spring of 2000 in an orbit with apogee altitude 7.2 R E (Earth radii) and perigee altitude 1000 km. IMAGE's EUV sensor allows an external view of the distribution of cold plasma in the plasmasphere to be acquired. EUV is designed to image light emission at 30.4 nanometers, which is the emission wavelength of the He + ion in the presence of solar radiation. He + makes up approximately 15-20% of the plasma in the plasmasphere, thus imaging of He + enables determination of plasma distribution. The EUV instrument provides a 90° by 84° field of view which is imaged as an equally spaced 150x140 pixel array on a spherical imaging surface. The EUV produces an image approximately every 10 minutes when the sensor is operating. Since EUV images contain line-of-sight integrations of plasma distributions, they do not directly express equatorial plane density (which would enable comparison of observed plasma distributions with predictions from models). Furthermore, the plasma density at any point in three-space is not known. The goal of our work was development of a technique that can enable plasma density to be determined throughout three-space. Our approach to creation of a three-space representation of the plasma distribution involves disintegrating the EUV lines of sight to form a volumetric map of plasma densities.

Timothy S. Newman↗

Monitoring Marine Weather Systems Using Quikscat and TRMM Data

We do not understand nor are able to predict marine storms, particularly tropical cyclones, sufficiently well because ground-based measurements are sparse and operational numerical weather prediction models do not have sufficient spatial resolution nor accurate parameterization of the physics.

Hurricane remote-sensing wind rain↗

Influence of Persistent Wind Scour on the Surface Mass Balance of Antarctica

Accurate quantification of surface snow accumulation over Antarctica is a key constraint for estimates of the Antarctic mass balance, as well as climatic interpretations of ice-core records. Over Antarctica, near-surface winds accelerate down relatively steep surface slopes, eroding and sublimating the snow. This wind scour results in numerous localized regions (< or = 200 sq km) with reduced surface accumulation. Estimates of Antarctic surface mass balance rely on sparse point measurements or coarse atmospheric models that do not capture these local processes, and overestimate the net mass input in wind-scour zones. Here we combine airborne radar observations of unconformable stratigraphic layers with lidar-derived surface roughness measurements to identify extensive wind-scour zones over Dome A, in the interior of East Antarctica. The scour zones are persistent because they are controlled by bedrock topography. On the basis of our Dome A observations, we develop an empirical model to predict wind-scour zones across the Antarctic continent and find that these zones are predominantly located in East Antarctica. We estimate that approx. 2.7-6.6% of the surface area of Antarctica has persistent negative net accumulation due to wind scour, which suggests that, across the continent, the snow mass input is overestimated by 11-36.5 Gt /yr in present surface-mass-balance calculations.

Antarctica↗

Quantifying Boreal Forest Structure and Composition Using UAV Structure from Motion

The vast extent and inaccessibility of boreal forest ecosystems are barriers to routine monitoring of forest structure and composition. In this research, we bridge the scale gap between intensive but sparse plot measurements and extensive remote sensing studies by collecting forest inventory variables at the plot scale using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a structure from motion (SfM) approach. At 20 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) subplots in interior Alaska, we acquired overlapping imagery and generated dense, 3D, RGB (red, green, blue) point clouds. We used these data to model forest type at the individual crown scale as well as subplot-scale tree density (TD), basal area (BA), and aboveground biomass (AGB). We achieved 85% cross-validation accuracy for five species at the crown level. Classification accuracy was maximized using three variables representing crown height, form, and color. Consistent with previous UAV-based studies, SfM point cloud data generated robust models of TD (r(sup 2) = 0.91), BA (r(sup 2) = 0.79), and AGB (r(sup 2) = 0.92), using a mix of plot- and crown-scale information. Precise estimation of TD required either segment counts or species information to differentiate black spruce from mixed white spruce plots. The accuracy of species-specific estimates of TD, BA, and AGB at the plot scale was somewhat variable, ranging from accurate estimates of black spruce TD (+/−1%) and aspen BA (−2%) to misallocation of aspen AGB (+118%) and white spruce AGB (−50%). These results convey the potential utility of SfM data for forest type discrimination in FIA plots and the remaining challenges to develop classification approaches for species-specific estimates at the plot scale that are more robust to segmentation error.

aboveground biomass↗

Measure sea level air pressure from space to improve knowledge and forecasting of the atmospheric state

Modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) and analysis models require globally-observed meteorological data including sea-level pressure (SLP) for accurate operations. Up until now, SLP has only been measured by in situ instruments from ships, buoys, and ocean platforms. These measurements are sparse with large gaps, leaving models starved of this critical information to constrain the atmospheric state. Recent advancements in differential absorption radar (DAR) provide a path to close this critical observation gap through spaceborne observations in the coming decade, improving the analysis models relied upon for atmospheric research and the weather forecasts depended upon daily for public safety and commerce.

Matthew L Walker McLinden↗

Searches for New Physics With Muon Conversion at Fermilab and Triboson Production at the LHC

We report on several efforts to search for physics beyond the standard model of particle physics at broad energy scales. The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for charged lepton flavor violation via the muon to electron conversion process, which is suppressed in the Standard Model. Mu2e will be operated at a low energy, yet can probe New Physics at very high mass scales (O(1e3 - 1e4 ) TeV). At high energies, the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC continues to deliver an impressive suite of Standard Model measurements and limits on a variety of New Physics signatures. Mu2e is under construction and slated to collect its first physics data in the coming years. This thesis describes work done during the construction phase of Mu2e and focuses on two critical areas: magnetic field modeling and statistical analysis. We describe a novel method for field modeling which we validate using a simulated dataset representing the expected magnetic field in the Detector Solenoid. This method blends a standard least-squares fitting technique that utilizes physically motivated analytical model functions with a novel physics informed network that is constructed to obey Maxwell’s equations. We show the technique can model the field with an accuracy of 10−7 despite the presence of injected noise in the pseudo-measurements at the 10−5 level. We then present preliminary results of the calibration of 3D Hall probes at the sub-10−4 level. These probes will be used to directly measure the Mu2e Detector Solenoid magnetic field on a sparse grid; these measurements serve as the input to the field model fitting. Finally, we describe the first implementation of both an unbinned shape analysis and a Bayesian interpretation applied to Mu2e pseudo-data. Up to 20% tighter limits can be set by the shape analysis compared to a standard cut & count analysis. The AlCap experiment collected data at PSI in 2015 to measure several important quantities related to nuclear muon capture on an aluminum target, which is a significant background process for Mu2e. The neutron emission from muon capture can introduce background hits in the Mu2e detectors and can increase radiation damage in various elements of the apparatus. We present measurements of the neutron group fluence and mean neutron multiplicity for muon capture on aluminum nuclei. Finally, we discuss an analysis of triboson production at CMS using an Effective Field Theory framework. Standard Model triboson production, which was first observed at CMS in 2020, has a relatively small cross section and provides direct access to both anomalous triple gauge couplings and quartic gauge couplings. These couplings, interpreted in the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, are studied in the present work. We target the boosted regime where the background rate is low and yields are enhanced when dimension-6 and dimension-8 Wilson coefficients are non-zero. We do not observe an excess in the data and therefore set bounds on the Wilson coefficients. For dimension-6 coefficients the tightest observed (expected) bounds are set on cW /Λ2 where Λ is the mass scale of new physics; the bounds are [−0.13, 0.12] TeV−2 ([−0.12, 0.12] TeV−2 ) at 95% CL. The tightest bounds in dimension-8 are set on fT,0 / Λ4 ; the observed (expected) bounds at 95% CL are [−0.63, 0.69] TeV−4 ([−0.54, 0.62] TeV−4 ). Additional results are presented which include scenarios where multiple Wilson coefficients are non-zero, the application of signal model clipping to address unitarity violation in Effective Field Theories, and a novel template fit developed for easier reinterpretation of our results.

Kampa, Cole Erik [Northwestern U. (main)] (ORCID:0↗

Satellite-derived sea surface temperature: Introduction

Satellites now play an increasing role in systematic monitoring of the global oceans. Measurements of sea surface temperature (SST) are of primary importance in understanding heat storage and transport within the ocean and cross the ocean-atmosphere boundary. In some regions, local changes in SST of only 1 to 2 C have major effects on global climate and weather patterns. The satellite measurements provide a data base complementary to the (sometimes) accurate but sparsely-distributed point measurements available from ships and buoys. The demands placed on satellite sensors are stringent. Accuracies of better than 1 C are required and are often desired to a few tenths of a degree. Furthermore, measurement accuracies must be stable spatially and temporally in order for satellite data to be used with confidence in models of air-sea interaction and climate. There now exists a need to evaluate objectively the performance of the latest generation of sensors under a sufficient variety of environmental conditions to indicate present accuracies, deficiencies, and potential for improvement.

Njoku, E. G.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, July 2012

Topics covered include: Instrument Suite for Vertical Characterization of the Ionosphere-Thermosphere System; Terahertz Radiation Heterodyne Detector Using Two-Dimensional Electron Gas in a GaN Heterostructure; Pattern Recognition Algorithm for High-Sensitivity Odorant Detection in Unknown Environments; Determining Performance Acceptability of Electrochemical Oxygen Sensors; Versatile Controller for Infrared Lamp and Heater Arrays; High-Speed Scanning Interferometer Using CMOS Image Sensor and FPGA Based on Multifrequency Phase-Tracking Detection; Ultra-Low-Power MEMS Selective Gas Sensors; Compact Receiver Front Ends for Submillimeter-Wave Applications; Dynamically Reconfigurable Systolic Array Accelerator; Blocking Losses With a Photon Counter; Motion-Capture-Enabled Software for Gestural Control of 3D Mod; Orbit Software Suite; CoNNeCT Baseband Processor Module Boot Code SoftWare (BCSW); Trajectory Software With Upper Atmosphere Model; ALSSAT Version 6.0; Employing a Grinding Technology to Assess the Microbial Density for Encapsulated Organisms; Demonstration of Minimally Machined Honeycomb Silicon Carbide Mirrors; Polyimide Aerogel Thin Films; Nanoengineered Thermal Materials Based on Carbon Nanotube Array Composites; Composite Laminate With Coefficient of Thermal Expansion Matching D263 Glass; Robust Tensioned Kevlar Suspension Design; Focal Plane Alignment Utilizing Optical CMM; Purifying, Separating, and Concentrating Cells From a Sample Low in Biomass; Virtual Ultrasound Guidance for Inexperienced Operators; Beat-to-Beat Blood Pressure Monitor; Non-Contact Conductivity Measurement for Automated Sample Processing Systems; An MSK Radar Waveform; Telescope Alignment From Sparsely Sampled Wavefront Measurements Over Pupil Subapertures; Method to Remove Particulate Matter from Dusty Gases at Low Pressures; Terahertz Quantum Cascade Laser With Efficient Coupling and Beam Profile; Measurement Via Optical Near-Nulling and Subaperture Stitching; 885-nm Pumped Ceramic Nd:YAG Master Oscillator Power Amplifier Laser System; Airborne Hyperspectral Imaging System; Heat Shield Employing Cured Thermal Protection Material Blocks Bonded in a Large-Cell Honeycomb Matrix; and Asymmetric Supercapacitor for Long-Duration Power Storage.

Source record↗

Global Evaluation of Terrestrial Near-Surface Air Temperature and Specific Humidity Retrievals from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)

Global observations of near-surface air temperature and specific humidity over land are needed for a variety of applications, including to constrain global estimates of evapotranspiration (ET). Spaceborne hyperspectral observations, such as those from NASA’s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission, show promise for meeting this need, yet there are surprisingly few validation studies of AIRS near-surface atmospheric state retrievals. In this study, we use triple collocation to validate AIRS Level 3 retrievals of near-surface atmospheric state over land using twelve years of gridded station observations and two reanalyses. Deseasonalized AIRS retrievals correlate well with deseasonalized ground observations outside the tropics, but correlate less well in the tropics. Lower temporal sensitivity near the surface in the tropics contributes to the lower correlation for near-surface air temperature and is consistent with known physics of the tropical atmosphere, in which temperatures outside the boundary layer (which dominate the AIRS retrieval signal) are poorly correlated with those near the surface. Retrievals in the tropics may also be more susceptible to errors in cloud-clearing algorithms, and to uncertainty in surface emissivity. Since ET is greatest in the tropics, and tropical measurement networks are particularly sparse, this work motivates new approaches for measuring ET in the tropics.

Evapotranspiration↗

Measurement of Electromagnetic Energy Flow Through a Sparse Particulate Medium: A Perspective

First-principle analysis of the functional design of a well-collimated radiometer (WCR) reveals that in general, this instrument does not record the instantaneous directional flow of electromagnetic energy. Only in special cases can a sequence of measurements with a WCR yield the magnitude and direction of the local time-averaged Poynting vector. Our analysis demonstrates that it is imperative to clearly formulate the physical nature of the actual measurement afforded by a directional radiometer rather than presume desirable measurement capabilities. Only then can the directional radiometer be considered a legitimate part of physically based remote sensing and radiation-budget applications. We also emphasize the need for a better understanding of the nature of measurements with panoramic radiometers.

directional radiometry↗

Noise Reduction and Calibration for Aeroacoustic Loads from Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint

Unsteady pressure-sensitive paint (uPSP) is a significant new technology for high spatial resolution measurement of complex dynamic surface pressure loading on a wind tunnel model, to better define flight vehicle buffet and aeroacoustic loads. Compared with the very sparse surface pressure measurements of traditional sensors, the pressure sensitivity of uPSP light reflectivity provides a visual measure of surface pressure fluctuations over a wide area illuminated by high intensity light, captured by a high-speed digital camera. Panda et al (AIAA Journal, May 2019) have shown good data is recoverable up to 10 kHz. In cases where available uPSP luminescence is low for a painted wind tunnel test model, significant noise levels have been observed primarily due to the discrete photon arrival variability of low intensity light (termed “shot noise”). In this case, uPSP measurements can exhibit unusually low signal to noise ratio (SNR of 0.1 or less). This paper will report on latest work to recover calibrated uPSP measurements which are noise free over a useful dynamic range of 10-15 dB. It will be shown how the distinct spatial correlations of both the shot noise and the underlying aeroacoustic surface pressure play an important role in obtaining a reliable measurement.

pressure-sensitive paint↗

Resilient State Recovery Using Prior Measurement Support Information

Resilient state recovery of cyber-physical systems has attracted much research attention due to the unique challenges posed by the tight coupling between communication, computation, and the underlying physics of such systems. By modeling attacks as additive adversary signals to a sparse subset of measurements, this resilient recovery problem can be formulated as an error correction problem. To achieve exact state recovery, most existing results require less than 50% of the measurement nodes to be compromised, which limits the resiliency of the estimators. In this paper, we show that observer resiliency can be further improved by incorporating data-driven prior information. Here, we provide an analytical bridge between the precision of prior information and the resiliency of the estimator. By quantifying the relationship between the estimation error of the weighted ℓ 1 observer and the precision of the support prior, this quantified relationship provides guidance for the estimator’s weight design to achieve optimal resiliency. Several numerical simulations and an application case study are presented to validate the theoretical claims.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A convergence metric for counting statistics in time-resolved small angle neutron scattering

Here, this work introduces a model-independent, dimensionless metric for predicting optimal measurement duration in time-resolved small-angle neutron scattering using early-time data. Built on a Gaussian process regression framework, the method reconstructs scattering profiles with quantified uncertainty, even from sparse or noisy measurements. Demonstrated on the EQ-SANS instrument at the Spallation Neutron Source, the approach generalizes to general SANS instruments with a two-dimensional detector. A key result is the discovery of a dimensionless convergence metric revealing a universal power-law scaling in profile evolution across soft matter systems. When time is normalized by a system-specific characteristic time t*, the variation in inferred profiles collapses onto a single curve with an exponent between −2 and −1. This trend emerges within the first ten time steps, enabling early prediction of measurement sufficiency. The method supports real-time experimental optimization and is especially valuable for maximizing efficiency in low-flux environments such as compact accelerator-based neutron sources.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

Grid Topology Discovery Algorithm Evaluation of Suitability for Utility Deployment (CRADA 606 Final Report)

This work presents the results of a field-informed demonstration aimed at evaluating the practical suitability of a topology discovery algorithm for utility environments. We demonstrated an algorithm that uses a graph-theory-informed state estimation approach for model selection. In collaboration with Survalent and Peninsula Light Co., the algorithm was applied to real feeder models and field measurements from supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) systems to identify the operational topology of a power distribution system. The demonstration assessed the algorithm’s performance under realistic data conditions, including sparse and noisy measurements, and examined its ability to identify the most likely network configurations. The results confirmed that the approach can effectively narrow down feasible topologies, providing operators with improved situational awareness of network status. Key lessons learned emphasize the need for systematic data validation and strategic sensor placement to enhance observability. These insights inform future deployment strategies and guide refinements for broader adoption in utility operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗