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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Statistical Downscaling of Climate Models for Solar Resource Assessment

This study presents the development of statistical models to efficiently downscale future projections of solar irradiance for solar energy applications. A climate data set simulated from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) is selected as input to the statistical models to create high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that (1) regrid RCM data (0.22 degree and daily spatiotemporal resolution), (2) correct bias of GHI projections, (3) downscale the future GHI project from daily-scale to hourly-scale, and (4) spatially downscale to generate GHI at 8-km resolution. To calibrate and validate the statistical models, we adapt and use the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Preliminary results show that the statistical downscaling approach downscales future projections of GHI under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34% and nRMSE of 46% estimated against NSRDB for the contiguous United State. This presentation will summarize the implemented methodology and validation results as well as future extension of this research.

climate data↗

Grid generation, coupling strategies, and spatially-dependent time stepping for ocean-tidal/estuary systems and other ESM components (Final Report)

There are many multiple scale issues in the ocean modeling, including different mesh resolutions (local) and different physical processes (global). In order to gain efficiency and fidelity in modern ESMs, it is vital to develop high quality, highly nonuniform meshes and spatially-dependent time stepping strategies for coupling various climate system components. The USC/FSU team has worked on the design, analysis, and implementation of fast CVT grid generation and novel time- stepping schemes that could address all the requirements for global and regional ocean models on highly nonuniform meshes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Downscaled hyper-resolution (400 m) gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature (2008–2019) for the East–Taylor subbasin (western United States)

Abstract. High-resolution gridded datasets of meteorological variables are needed in order to resolve fine-scale hydrological gradients in complex mountainous terrain. Across the United States, the highest available spatial resolution of gridded datasets of daily meteorological records is approximately 800 m. This work presents gridded datasets of daily precipitation and mean temperature for the East–Taylor subbasin (in the western United States) covering a 12-year period (2008–2019) at a high spatial resolution (400 m). The datasets are generated using a downscaling framework that uses data-driven models to learn relationships between climate variables and topography. We observe that downscaled datasets of precipitation and mean temperature exhibit smoother spatial gradients (while preserving the spatial variability) when compared to their coarser counterparts. Additionally, we also observe that when downscaled datasets are upscaled to the original resolution (800 m), the mean residual error is almost zero, ensuring no bias when compared with the original data. Furthermore, the downscaled datasets are observed to be linearly related to elevation, which is consistent with the methodology underlying the original 800 m product. Finally, we validate the spatial patterns exhibited by downscaled datasets via an example use case that models lidar-derived estimates of snowpack. The presented dataset constitutes a valuable resource to resolve fine-scale hydrological gradients in the mountainous terrain of the East–Taylor subbasin, which is an important study area in the context of water security for the southwestern United States and Mexico. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.15485/1822259 (Mital et al., 2021).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement and reduction of Ar metastable densities by nitrogen admixing in electron beam-generated plasmas

Abstract Electron beam (e-beam) generated plasmas are useful for material processing applications such as deposition and etching because the plasmas deliver a large fluence of very low energy of ions to surfaces. Metastable species produced in the beam-region can also transport significant energy to the plasma periphery and surfaces. In this work, we have investigated the spatially resolved density of metastable Ar 1s 5 species produced in an Ar and Ar/N 2 e-beam generated plasma at pressures of 60–67 mTorr using laser-induced fluorescence (LIF). The experiments provide the first direct measure of absolute density and reduction of Ar 1s 5 in an e-beam generated plasma when argon is diluted with nitrogen. These results are consistent with previous predictions of numerical modeling and measurements using optical emission spectroscopy. The present spatially resolved LIF measurements directly quantify the reduction of Ar 1s 5 in the e-beam generated plasma by nitrogen admixing. This reduction was observed in the region of the electron beam and in the plasma periphery, where substrates are usually placed. For example, up to a threefold reduction of the density of Ar 1s 5 was measured when the argon background was diluted with 15.5% nitrogen at pressure of 60 mTorr. Ar 1s 5 reduction is attributed to excitation exchange with nitrogen molecules as well as the cooling of plasma electrons via inelastic collisions with nitrogen molecules.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) Model: Overview and Validation of V1.0 [Slides]

This presentation documents the approaches and methods used in the Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options™ (TEMPO) model to evaluate passenger and freight demand for transportation and mobility services, project vehicle ownership and technology adoption decisions, and determine transport mode choices to derive scenarios of future energy use and emissions. TEMPO is an all-inclusive transportation demand model that covers the entire United States, with an implicit spatial resolution and an hourly temporal resolution that allows for generating time-resolved energy use profiles to assess multisectoral integration aspects. Key features of the TEMPO model include the ability to perform endogenous out-of-sample forecasting to extrapolate recent emerging trends and analyze impacts of disruptive technological breakthroughs and behavioral changes. TEMPO employs an innovative representation of passenger mobility demand stemming from household-level decisions that determine vehicle adoption, ownership, and use based on sociodemographics (e.g., income, household composition), technology attributes (e.g., travel cost, time), geography (e.g., urban, suburban, rural) and population-specific multiday mobility and travel requirements. This representation enables a more forward-looking perspective on the use of new mobility options and the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, as well as a more accurate representation of their energy usage profiles than previous modeling approaches. A comparison with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook showcases the ability of TEMPO to accurately replicate widely accepted projections by representing the key elements of the entire transportation sector at the appropriate level of resolution. TEMPO is intended to generate future scenarios of technology adoption, energy use, and emissions in the transportation sector to compare alternatives, inform decision makers, and assess integration with energy infrastructure and supply systems at an appropriate spatiotemporal resolution.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

WHONDRS Surface Water and Sediment Geochemistry and Organic Matter Characterization Data from Streams across HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon (v2)

This dataset supports a broader study developing conceptual models for river corridor critical zone processes across spatial scales and was generated in collaboration with the HJ Andrews River Corridor Critical Zone Workshop in 2025. The dataset provides surface water geochemistry (dissolved organic carbon, total dissolved nitrogen) from 48 sites across the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon (https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu). Some of the sites have been impacted by the Holiday Farm Fire and the Lookout Fire in 2020 and 2023, respectively. Related data were collected as part of the workshop and will be published separately in collaboration with other workshop attendees and available at http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/b274c4a234bf4b12b7cb8a54a696c629. Related genomic data can be found on the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) under BioProject PRJNA1503030 (see critical details section below for more information). Additional related data collected in 2016 from a similar effort can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3377027 and http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/ea6c0832885a46c3939e7bb22e48e754 and are described within https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1-2019 (Ward et al., 2019). This data package was originally published in March 2026. It was updated in August 2026 (v2; new and modified files). See the change history section in the readme for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) a folder of field photos, (2) a folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data, (3) a data checks report, (4) a folder of sample data, (5) file-level metadata, (6) data dictionary, (7) field metadata, (8) readme, (9) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (10) field protocol. The sample data subfolder contains surface water and sediment (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages, (2) total dissolved nitrogen data and averages, (3) methods codes, (4) FTICR-MS methods; and (5) a subfolder of 9.4 Tesla (9.4T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the CoreMS processed data and seven subfolders, thee containing .xml files for each sample type (sediment, surface water and blank samples), three containing the sediment CoreMS output files for each sample type (sediment, surface water and blank samples), and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, or .jpeg.

Biogeochemistry↗

Improving Non-Destructive Detection Technology Through SAVY Feature Detection

Surveillance of special nuclear material (SNM) storage containers is required by the DOE to assess their integrity across the Complex. This work aims to improve the task of container inspections by leveraging automation through machine learning (ML) tools to reduce the human-intensive effort and expert-level knowledge needed to assess container status. A field-deployable, non-destructive technology was designed using off-the-shelf components to collect multiple images from different perspectives of containers in storage to detect both spatial features of interest and anomalies of concern. Nine ML models were generated using unique training datasets and parameters. Learned features include SAVY surface regions including the body side wall, collar, lid, filter, and printed/etched information. Average Precision (AP) is used to calculate detection performance when both viewing previously seen environments and previously unseen environments. The application of image transformations and resolution scaling while training greatly improved the detection performance in unseen environments, and significantly increasing the number of computation iterations improved detection performance on previously seen environments. Additional capabilities were developed including the novel detection of procedural non-compliance and the ability to localize anomalies relative to SAVY surface features.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

IM3 Phase 2 Official Simulations: GCAM-Demeter-SELECT Annualized Land Use and Land Cover, Wood Harvest and Fertilization Data with Dynamic Urbanization Harmonized to CLM Land Definitions at 0.125 Degrees

Annualized land use land cover data, including wood harvest and fertilizer use data from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) downscaled to 0.125 degrees for couping with the Community Land Model (CLM). GCAM here refers to GCAM-USA v5.3.im3 which has an enhanced electricity sector and an updated data system needed to represent regional to local scale dynamics. Data is also harmonized with future urbanization projections from the Spatially-Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City developmenT (SELECT) model. Projections/Data are generated using the demeter land use and land cover downscaling model. Original projections were generated at 0.05 degrees before being aggregared to 0.125 degrees. Projections are available for 8 alternative scenarios. Two versions of final data are included- one with managed forests or harvested forest area per pixel broken out and one with the same aggregated into total forests. Following folders are included: demeter_78_PFT_output:This is the final output of dynamic land use land cover change for 78 PFTs as required by CLM raw_outputs_incl_managed_forest: This is the final output but with managed forests broken out as a different PFT. Essentially a 79th PFT is added. wood_harvest_outputs: Wood harvest output per pixel in gC/m2 fertilization_outputs: Fertilizer use per pixel in gN/m2 Each NetCDF file in each folder represents a projection for a separate year, scenario. Land use outputs are organized as PFT level data saved as subdata. Link to GCAM version used- https://data.msdlive.org/records/yb23g-44274 Link to SELECT documentation -https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815219301707 Link to CLM documentation- - https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/clm In case of questions contact- kanishka.narayan@pnnl.gov

GCAM-USA↗

SICOPOLIS-AD v1: an open-source adjoint modeling framework for ice sheet simulation enabled by the algorithmic differentiation tool OpenAD

We present a new capability of the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS that enables flexible adjoint code generation via source transformation using the open-source algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool OpenAD.The adjoint code enables efficient calculation of the sensitivities of a scalar-valued objective function or quantity of interest (QoI) to a range of important, often spatially varying and uncertain model input variables, including initial and boundary conditions, as well as model parameters.Compared to earlier work on the adjoint code generation of SICOPOLIS, our work makes several important advances:(i) it is embedded within the up-to-date trunk of the SICOPOLIS repository – accounting for 1.5 decades of code development and improvements – and is readily available to the wider community;(ii) the AD tool used, OpenAD, is an open-source tool;(iii) the adjoint code developed is applicable to both Greenland and Antarctica, including grounded ice as well as floating ice shelves, with an extended choice of thermodynamical representations.A number of code refactorization steps were required. They are discussed in detail in an Appendix as they hold lessons for the application of AD to legacy codes at large.As an example application, we examine the sensitivity of the total Antarctic Ice Sheet volume to changes in initial ice thickness, austral summer precipitation, and basal and surface temperatures across the ice sheet.Simulations of Antarctica with floating ice shelves show that over 100 years of simulation the sensitivity of total ice sheet volume to the initial ice thickness and precipitation is almost uniformly positive, while the sensitivities to surface and basal temperature are almost uniformly negative. Sensitivity to austral summer precipitation is largest on floating ice shelves from Queen Maud to Queen Mary Land. The largest sensitivity to initial ice thickness is at outlet glaciers around Antarctica. Comparison between total ice sheet volume sensitivities to surface and basal temperature shows that surface temperature sensitivities are higher broadly across the floating ice shelves, while basal temperature sensitivities are highest at the grounding lines of floating ice shelves and outlet glaciers. A uniformly perturbed region of East Antarctica reveals that, among the four control variables tested here, total ice sheet volume is the most sensitive to variations in austral summer precipitation as formulated in SICOPOLIS.Comparison between adjoint- and finite-difference-derived sensitivities shows good agreement, lending confidence that the AD tool is producing correct adjoint code.The new modeling infrastructure is freely available at http://www.sicopolis.net (last access: 2 April 2020) under the development trunk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Regional-Scale 3D Ground-Motion Simulations of M w 7 Earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, Northern California Resolving Frequencies 0–10 Hz and Including Site-Response Corrections

Large earthquake ground-motion simulations in 3D Earth models provide constraints on site-specific shaking intensities but have suffered from limited frequency resolution and ignored site response in soft soils. In this work we report new regional-scale 3D simulations for moment magnitude 7.0 scenario earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, northern California with SW4. Simulations resolved significantly broader band frequencies (0–10 Hz) than previous studies and represent the highest resolution simulations for any such earthquake to date. Seismic waves were excited by a kinematic rupture following Graves and Pitarka (2016) and obeyed wave propagation in a 3D Earth model with topography from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assuming a minimum shear wavespeed, VSmin, of 500 m/s. We corrected motions for linear and nonlinear site response for the shear wavespeed, VS, from the USGS 3D model, using a recently developed ground-motion model (GMM) for Fourier amplitude spectra . At soft soil locations subjected to strong shaking, the site-corrected intensities reflect the competing effects of linear amplification by low V S material, reduction of stiffness during nonlinear deformation, and damping of high frequencies. Sites with near-surface V S of 500 m/s or greater require no linear site correction but can experience amplitude reduction due to nonlinear response. Averaged over all sites, we obtained reasonable agreement with empirical ergodic median GMMs currently used for seismic hazard and design ground motions (epsilon less than 1), with marked improvement at soft sedimentary sites. At specific locations, the simulated shaking intensities show systematic differences from the GMMs that reveal path and site effects not captured in these ergodic models. Results suggest how next generation regional-scale earthquake simulations can provide higher spatial and frequency resolution while including effects of soft soils that are commonly ignored in scenario earthquake ground-motion simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Time Series Foundation Models and Deep Learning Architectures for Earthquake Temporal and Spatial Nowcasting

Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities, remains crucial for reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the deep learning domain, facilitated by the availability of extensive earthquake datasets. Despite significant advancements, the existing literature on earthquake nowcasting lacks comprehensive evaluations of pre-trained foundation models and modern deep learning architectures; each focuses on a different aspect of data, such as spatial relationships, temporal patterns, and multi-scale dependencies. This paper addresses the mentioned gap by analyzing different architectures and introducing two innovative approaches called Multi Foundation Quake and GNNCoder. We formulate earthquake nowcasting as a time series forecasting problem for the next 14 days within 0.1-degree spatial bins in Southern California. Earthquake time series are generated using the logarithm energy released by quakes, spanning 1986 to 2024. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our introduced models outperform other custom architectures by effectively capturing temporal-spatial relationships inherent in seismic data. The performance of existing foundation models varies significantly based on the pre-training datasets, emphasizing the need for careful dataset selection. However, we introduce a novel method, Multi Foundation Quake, that achieves the best overall performance by combining a bespoke pattern with Foundation model results handled as auxiliary streams.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Model predictive current profile control in tokamaks by exploiting spatially moving electron cyclotron current drives

The plasma control systems in next-generation tokamaks like ITER will balance competing control objectives to achieve the desired level of performance in advanced scenarios while preventing magnetohydrodynamic instabilities and disruptions. During normal tokamak operation, the points of incidence of the electromagnetic waves generated by the electron cyclotron heating and current drives (EC H&CDs) are usually fixed in space. However, the points of incidence can be modified in real-time by changing the angles of the mirrors that reflect the EC H&CD waves. Altering the points of incidence, in turn, varies the ability of the plasma control system to regulate a plasma property. For instance, changing the EC H&CD wave incidence location may place the power demands necessary to achieve a particular plasma target within saturation limits. Therefore, using the EC H&CD deposition location, which is related to the EC H&CD mirror angle, as a supplementary controllable variable may facilitate access to a given target scenario. However, active scenario-control algorithms have not been designed so far to fully exploit this capability in real time. In this work, a model predictive controller that can handle actuation locations as control inputs is developed. In particular, the controller is designed to regulate both the auxiliary powers and the EC H&CD deposition locations in a pre-defined optimal sense to achieve the control objective of attaining and sustaining a target current profile. Further, the proposed controller is tested for a DIII-D tokamak scenario in nonlinear simulations using the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Modeling Spatial Asymmetries in Teleconnected Extreme Temperatures

Abstract Combining strengths from deep learning and extreme value theory can help describe complex relationships between variables where extreme events have significant impacts (e.g., environmental or financial applications). Neural networks learn complicated nonlinear relationships from large datasets under limited parametric assumptions. By definition, the number of occurrences of extreme events is small, which limits the ability of the data-hungry, nonparametric neural network to describe rare events. Inspired by recent extreme cold winter weather events in North America caused by atmospheric blocking, we examine several probabilistic generative models for the entire multivariate probability distribution of daily boreal winter surface air temperature. We propose metrics to measure spatial asymmetries, such as long-range anticorrelated patterns that commonly appear in temperature fields during blocking events. Compared to vine copulas, the statistical standard for multivariate copula modeling, deep learning methods show improved ability to reproduce complicated asymmetries in the spatial distribution of ERA5 temperature reanalysis, including the spatial extent of in-sample extreme events.

Krock, Mitchell L.↗

Characterizing the multisectoral impacts of future global hydrologic variability

There is significant uncertainty in how global water supply will evolve in the future, due to uncertain climate, socioeconomic, and land use change drivers and variability of hydrologic processes. It is critical to characterize the potential impacts of uncertainty in future water supply given its importance for food and energy production. In this work, we introduce a framework that integrates stochastic hydrology and human-environmental systems to characterize uncertainty in future water supply and its multisector impacts. We develop a global stochastic watershed model and demonstrate that this model can generate a large ensemble of realizations of basin-scale runoff with global coverage that preserves the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of a historical benchmark. We couple this model with a well-known human-environmental systems model to explore the impacts of runoff variability on the water and agricultural sectors across spatial scales. We find that the impacts of future hydrologic variability vary across sectors and regions. Impacts are felt most strongly in the water and agricultural sectors for basins that are expected to have unsustainable water use in the future, such as the Indus River basin. For this basin, we find that the variability in future irrigation water withdrawals and irrigated cropland increase over time due to uncertainty in renewable water supply. We also use the Indus basin to show how our stochastic ensemble can be leveraged to explore the global multisector consequences of local extreme runoff conditions. This work introduces a novel technique to explore the propagation of future hydrologic variability across human and natural systems and spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FuelsGen

This toolset generates heterogeneous spatial layouts, aimed at representing forest fuels applicable to wildland fire modeling. Methods are included for calibrating (fitting) this model to data extracted from plot survey information.

Gattiker, James↗