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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Processes contributing to cloud dissipation and formation events on the North Slope of Alaska

Abstract. Clear-sky periods across the high latitudes have profound impacts on the surface energy budget and lower atmospheric stratification; however an understanding of the atmospheric processes leading to low-level cloud dissipation and formation events is limited. A method to identify clear periods at Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, during a 5-year period (2014–2018) is developed. A suite of remote sensing and in situ measurements from the high-latitude observatory are analyzed; we focus on comparing and contrasting atmospheric properties during low-level (below 2 km) cloud dissipation and formation events to understand the processes controlling clear-sky periods. Vertical profiles of lidar backscatter suggest that aerosol presence across the lower atmosphere is relatively invariant during the periods bookending clear conditions, which suggests that a sparsity of aerosol is not frequently a cause for cloud dissipation on the North Slope of Alaska. Further, meteorological analysis indicates two active processes ongoing that appear to support the formation of low clouds after a clear-sky period: namely, horizontal advection, which was dominant in winter and early spring, and quiescent air mass modification, which was dominant in the summer. During summer, the dominant mode of cloud formation is a low cloud or fog layer developing near the surface. This low cloud formation is driven largely by air mass modification under relatively quiescent synoptic conditions. Near-surface aerosol particles concentrations changed by a factor of 2 around summer formation events. Thermodynamic adjustment and increased aerosol presence under quiescent atmospheric conditions are hypothesized as important mechanisms for fog formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic global vegetation models underestimate net CO 2 flux mean and inter-annual variability in dryland ecosystems

Despite their sparse vegetation, dryland regions exert a huge influence over global biogeochemical cycles because they cover more than 40% of the world surface (Schimel 2010 Science 327 418–9). It is thought that drylands dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and long-term trend in the global carbon (C) cycle (Poulter et al 2014 Nature 509 600–3, Ahlstrom et al 2015 Science 348 895–9, Zhang et al 2018 Glob. Change Biol. 24 3954–68). Projections of the global land C sink therefore rely on accurate representation of dryland C cycle processes; however, the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) used in future projections have rarely been evaluated against dryland C flux data. Here, we carried out an evaluation of 14 DGVMs (TRENDY v7) against net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data from 12 dryland flux sites in the southwestern US encompassing a range of ecosystem types (forests, shrub- and grasslands). We find that all the models underestimate both mean annual C uptake/release as well as the magnitude of NEE IAV, suggesting that improvements in representing dryland regions may improve global C cycle projections. Across all models, the sensitivity and timing of ecosystem C uptake to plant available moisture was at fault. Spring biases in gross primary production (GPP) dominate the underestimate of mean annual NEE, whereas models' lack of GPP response to water availability in both spring and summer monsoon are responsible for inability to capture NEE IAV. Errors in GPP moisture sensitivity at high elevation forested sites were more prominent during the spring, while errors at the low elevation shrub and grass-dominated sites were more important during the monsoon. We propose a range of hypotheses for why model GPP does not respond sufficiently to changing water availability that can serve as a guide for future dryland DGVM developments. Our analysis suggests that improvements in modeling C cycle processes across more than a quarter of the Earth's land surface could be achieved by addressing the moisture sensitivity of dryland C uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating spatial variability of aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei, and ice nucleating particles in mountainous terrain

The ASR-supported Surface Atmosphere Integrated field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River Watershed (ERW) of the Upper Colorado River Basin in southwestern Colorado ran from fall 2021 to spring 2023. Two monitoring sites were deployed in the East River Watershed as part of SAIL. The two sites were the Aerosol Observation System (AOS) located on Crested Butte Ski Mountain, and the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF-2), located at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Gothic, Colorado. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of aerosols in complex, mountainous terrain, Handix Scientific deployed SAIL-Net, a distributed network of six measurement nodes spanning the domain of the SAIL research area from October 2021 to July 2023. Each node measured aerosol particles between 140 nm and 3.4 μm in diameter using a small particle counter (POPS, (Gao et al., 2016)), CNN using a miniature CCN counter (CloudPuck), and INP using the Time-Resolved Aerosol Filter Sampler (TRAPS, Creamean et al. (2018)). Our approach was similar to other studies that aimed to better characterize and understand aerosols and gas-phase pollutants using networks of lower-cost sensors (Caubel et al., 2019; Kelly et al., 2021; Asher et al., 2022). Such studies have identified neighborhood-level variations in pollutant concentrations (Schneider et al., 2017; Popoola et al., 2018; Caubel et al., 2019). Small-scale variations such as this are poorly represented in models and poorly measured by a single monitoring system (Caubel et al., 2019). Previous work has shown the representation error (the ability of measurements to represent a larger area) increases with complex orography, leading to decreases in model accuracy (Schutgens et al., 2017). The overall goal of SAIL-Net was to improve our understanding of the variability of aerosol in ERW, thus increasing our knowledge of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region and informing the usefulness of distributed networks of measurements for future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Spatial Variability of Aerosol, Cloud Condensation Nuclei, and Ice Nucleating Particles in Mountainous Terrain Field Campaign Report

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric System Research (ASR)-supported Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign in the East River Watershed (ERW) of the Upper Colorado River Basin in southwestern Colorado ran from fall 2021 to spring 2023. Two monitoring sites were deployed in the ERW as part of SAIL. The two sites were the Aerosol Observation System (AOS) located on Crested Butte Ski Mountain, and the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2), located at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Gothic, Colorado. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of aerosols in complex, mountainous terrain, Handix Scientific deployed SAIL-Net, a distributed network of six measurement nodes spanning the domain of the SAIL research area from October 2021 to July 2023. Each node measured aerosol particles between 140 nm and 3.4 μm in diameter using a small portable optical particle spectrometer (POPS; Gao et al. 2016), cloud condensation nuclei (CNN) using a miniature CCN counter (CloudPuck), and ice nucleating particles (INP) using the time-resolved aerosol filter sampler (TRAPS; Creamean et al. 2018). Our approach was similar to other studies that aimed to better characterize and understand aerosols and gas-phase pollutants using networks of lower-cost sensors (Caubel et al. 2019, Kelly et al. 2021, Asher et al. 2022). Such studies have identified neighborhood-level variations in pollutant concentrations (Schneider et al. 2017, Popoola et al. 2018, Caubel et al. 2019). Small-scale variations such as this are poorly represented in models and poorly measured by a single monitoring system (Caubel et al. 2019). Previous work has shown the representation error (the ability of measurements to represent a larger area) increases with complex orography, leading to decreases in model accuracy (Schutgens et al. 2017). The overall goal of SAIL-Net was to improve our understanding of the variability of aerosol in the ERW, thus increasing our knowledge of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region and informing the usefulness of distributed networks of measurements for future studies. We met this goal by answering the following science questions: 1. What is the aerosol temporal variability, and how does aerosol inhomogeneity vary seasonally? Is there significant seasonal variability in sources, or are short-term meteorological conditions the most important determining factor in sources for cloud nuclei? 2. What is the aerosol spatial variability? What are the aerosol characteristics at cloud base, presumably the particles most representative of those acting as cloud nuclei? 3. How should measurement networks be designed to capture aerosol-cloud interactions, and what do they need to measure? Can a single measurement site accurately represent aerosol properties in regions of complex terrain? SAIL-Net consisted of six measurement nodes spread across the ERW near Crested Butte, Colorado. The primary objective in site placement was to select locations that captured the vertical variation in aerosol properties while also spanning the domain of the SAIL campaign. The elevation of the sites ranged from roughly 2750 m along the valley floor of the ERW to approximately 3500 m near the top of Crested Butte Mountain, which is one of the taller peaks in the ERW. The farthest distance between sites was 14 km, while the closest two sites were approximately 1 km apart. Two of the sites were collocated with the ARM SAIL sites; our instruments sat on top of one of the trailers at AOS and another one of our sites was located in a meadow just above AMF2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the large-scale drivers of precipitation in the northeastern United States via linear orthogonal decomposition

This study examines the linear orthogonal modes associated with monthly precipitation in the northeastern United States, from CESM1 LENS (35 ensemble members, 1979–2005) and two reanalysis datasets (ERA5, 1950–2018 and NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20CRv3, 1950–2015). Calendar months are aggregated together, and any linear trends in data are removed. Using region-averaged precipitation anomaly time series and monthly anomalies for several global 2D atmospheric fields, a linear orthogonal decomposition method is implemented to iteratively extract time series (based on field and geographic location) of absolute maximum correlation. Linear modes associated with this method are then projected onto the full set of 2D fields to provide physical insight into the mechanisms involved in generating precipitation. In this region, the first mode is associated with vapor transport from the Atlantic seaboard, the second mode is characterized by westward vapor transport associated with extratropical cyclones, and the third mode captures vapor transport from the Gulf of Mexico during the fall and winter. However, the third mode is less robust in the spring and summer. Results are generally consistent across the datasets, and applying multiple linear regression with the linear modes to predict the precipitation anomalies produces R-squared values of around 0.54–0.65 for CESM1 LENS, and around 0.58–0.88 for reanalysis, with the lowest values generally in the spring and late summer. The influence of low-frequency climate variability on the modes is considered for CESM1 LENS, and the modes in late winter can be predicted with some success via a combination of several, prominent large-scale teleconnection patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Seismic Signature of a High-Energy Density Physics Laboratory and Its Potential for Measuring Time-Dependent Velocity Structure

The Z Machine at Sandia National Laboratories is a pulsed power facility for high-energy density physics experiments that can shock materials to extreme temperatures and pressures through a focused energy release of up to ~ 25 MJ in < 100 nanoseconds. It has been in operation for more than two decades and conducts up to ~ 100 experiments, or “shots,” per year. Based on a set of 74 known shot times from 2018, we determined that Z Machine shots produce detectable ~ 3–17 Hz ground motion 12 km away at the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory, New Mexico (ANMO), borehole seismograph, with peak signal at ~ 7 Hz. The known shot waveforms were used to create a three-component template, leading to the detection of 2339 Z Machine shots since 1998 through single-station cross-correlation. Local seismic magnitude estimates range from local magnitude (M L ) —2 to —1.3 and indicate that only a small fraction of the shot energy is transmitted by seismic phases observable at 12 km distance. The most recent major facility renovation, which was intended to decrease mechanical dissipation, is associated with an abrupt decrease in observed seismic amplitudes at ANMO despite stable maximum shot energy. The highly repetitive impulsive sources are well suited to coda-wave interferometry to investigate time-dependent velocity structures. Relative velocity variations (dv/v) show an annual cycle with amplitude of ~ 0.2%. Local minima are observed in the late spring, and dv/v increases through the summer monsoon rainfall, possibly reflecting patchy saturation as rainfall infiltrates near the eastern edge of the Albuquerque basin. Importantly, the cumulative results demonstrate that forensic seismology can provide insight into long-term operation of facilities such as pulsed-power laboratories, and that their recurring signals may be valuable for studies of time-dependent structure

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climatology of diablo winds in Northern California and their relationships with large-scale climate variabilities

The most destructive wildfires recently in Northern California have been linked to the occurrences of Diablo Winds (DWs). This study investigates the climatology of DWs during September–December 1979–2018, and their relationships with various climate modes using observations and two high-resolution reanalysis datasets. Our finding shows that DWs do not have a long-term trend in terms of the annual total number, total duration, and associated maximum wind speeds of DWs over the past 4 decades. However, their associated minimum relative humidity (RH) has decreased significantly, especially in October, which suggests that the dryness during DWs has become more severe with time, possibly leading to an increased chance of fires, and their destructive potential. We also find that the annual total number and duration of DWs have exhibited an quasi-periodic variation, with intervals ranging from 2 to 4 years. The periodic variability of DWs might be attributed to the teleconnections between DWs and climate oscillations, specifically the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), through their modulation of pressure systems near California and the location of the Pacific jet stream. It is suggested that when La Niña and the QBO westerly phases co-occur in the spring, DWs in the following fall and winter tend to occur more frequently, and are associated with more intense high winds and dryness as compared to other springtime QBO and ENSO phases. This relationship may be used to predict the seasonal outlook of DWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

62°S Witnesses the Transition of Boundary Layer Marine Aerosol Pattern Over the Southern Ocean (50°S–68°S, 63°E– 150°E) During the Spring and Summer: Results From MARCUS (I)

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility-2 was installed onboard the research vessel Aurora Australis to measure aerosol properties during the 2017-2018 Measurement of Aerosols, Radiation, and CloUds over the pristine Southern ocean (MARCUS) Experiment, providing unique data on aerosols latitudinal and seasonal variation, including south of 60 degrees S where previous observations are scarce. Data from a Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) counter and Ultra-High-Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometer show that both the number concentration (N-CCN) and size distribution of CCN-active aerosols, with diameters (D) between 60 nm < D < 1,000 nm are different over the North Southern Ocean (NSO) (50 degrees S-60 degrees S) and the South Southern Ocean (SSO) (62 degrees S-68 degrees S). The average NSO N-CCN at 0.2% and 0.5% supersaturation were 28% and 49% less than that over the SSO. This increase of CCN over the SSO is caused by the increase of aerosols with 60 nm < D < 200 nm, consistent with calculations of Aerosol Scattering Angstrom Exponents derived from a nephelometer. Aerosol hygroscopicity growth factor measured by the Hygroscopic Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer stayed close to 1.41 for aerosols with 50 nm < D < 250 nm over the SSO, but increased from 1.30 to 1.67 over the NSO, indicating different chemical compositions. Both CCN and Ice Nucleating Particles (INPs) showed a stronger variation with season than with latitude. The variation of heat-labile and presumably proteinacous INPs suggests an increase of ice nucleating-active microbes in summer.

Niu, Qing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of sugar kelp ( Saccharina latissima ) breeding guided by practices to accelerate genetic gains

Abstract Though Saccharina japonica cultivation has been established for many decades in East Asian countries, the domestication process of sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima) in the Northeast United States is still at its infancy. In this study, by using data from our breeding experience, we will demonstrate how obstacles for accelerated genetic gain can be assessed using simulation approaches that inform resource allocation decisions. Thus far, we have used 140 wild sporophytes that were sampled in 2018 from the northern Gulf of Maine to southern New England. From these sporophytes, we sampled gametophytes and made and evaluated over 600 progeny sporophytes from crosses among the gametophytes in 2019 and 2020. The biphasic life cycle of kelp gives a great advantage in selective breeding as we can potentially select both on the sporophytes and gametophytes. However, several obstacles exist, such as the amount of time it takes to complete a breeding cycle, the number of gametophytes that can be maintained in the laboratory, and whether positive selection can be conducted on farm-tested sporophytes. Using the Gulf of Maine population characteristics for heritability and effective population size, we simulated a founder population of 1,000 individuals and evaluated the impact of overcoming these obstacles on rate of genetic gain. Our results showed that key factors to improve current genetic gain rely mainly on our ability to induce reproduction of the best farm-tested sporophytes, and to accelerate the clonal vegetative growth of released gametophytes so that enough gametophyte biomass is ready for making crosses by the next growing season. Overcoming these challenges could improve rates of genetic gain more than 2-fold. Future research should focus on conditions favorable for inducing spring reproduction, and on increasing the amount of gametophyte tissue available in time to make fall crosses in the same year.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SPRUCE Vegetation Phenology in Experimental Plots from Phenocam Imagery, 2015-2022

This data set consists of PhenoCam data from the SPRUCE experiment from the beginning of whole ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017) in August 2015 through March 31 of 2023, with start- and end-of-season phenological transition dates derived through the end of autumn 2022. Digital cameras, or phenocams, installed in each SPRUCE enclosure track seasonal variation in vegetation “greenness”, a proxy for vegetation phenology and associated physiological activity. Three separate regions of interest (ROIs) were defined for each camera field of view, corresponding to different vegetation types and demarcating (1) Picea trees (vegetation type EN, for evergreen needleleaf); (2) Larix trees (vegetation type DN, for deciduous needleleaf); and (3) the mixed shrub layer (vegetation type SH). This data set consists of three sets of data files: 3-day summary product files: One file for each camera and each ROI (i.e. vegetation type), characterizing vegetation color at a 3-day time step Contains 35 files in *.csv format inside a compressed (*.zip) file. Transition date file: Estimates “greenness rising” (spring) and “greenness falling” (autumn) transition dates derived from the smoothed daily green chromatic coordinate (GCC) values, for each camera and each ROI (i.e. vegetation type) Contains one file in *.csv format Snow flag files: Indicate days with snow on trees or snow on ground for each experimental enclosure Contains two files in *.csv format, one for snow on trees and one for snow on ground This data set consists of two sets of companion files: Accompanying HTML files show the 90th quantiles of the mean GCC plotted together with transition dates for each vegetation type and plot. Contains three files in HTML format, one for each vegetation type One additional file in HTML format with the transition dates plotted for each vegetation type, by year R files for processing Phenocam files and flags. Contains five files in R file (*.R) format in one compressed (*.zip) file User Note: All imagery is posted in near-real time to the PhenoCam Project web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/), where it is publicly available. Scroll to “spruce” in the Gallery or link directly to the 29 SPRUCE cameras at https://tinyurl.com/y7z5mau7. The data reported here are based on the complete camera record from SPRUCE and supersedes the previously released phenocam datasets (see Related Data Sets). The estimated transition dates for previously released datasets may differ slightly (in most cases, by ±3 days or less), because following standard PhenoCam processing protocols (Richardson et al. 2018, Scientific Data), smoothing and interpolation, outlier removal, and transition date estimation are always conducted using the full data record.

SPRUCE Experiment, Marcell Experimental Forest, Sp↗
DOE OSTI2024

SPRUCE Vegetation Phenology in Experimental Plots from Phenocam Imagery, 2015-2023

This data set consists of PhenoCam data from the SPRUCE experiment from the beginning of whole ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017) in August 2015 through March 31 of 2024, with start- and end-of-season phenological transition dates derived through the end of autumn 2023. Digital cameras, or phenocams, installed in each SPRUCE enclosure track seasonal variation in vegetation “greenness”, a proxy for vegetation phenology and associated physiological activity. Three separate regions of interest (ROIs) were defined for each camera field of view, corresponding to different vegetation types and demarcating (1) Picea trees (vegetation type EN, for evergreen needleleaf); (2) Larix trees (vegetation type DN, for deciduous needleleaf); and (3) the mixed shrub layer (vegetation type SH). This data set consists of three sets of data files: (1) 3-day summary product files: One file for each camera and each ROI (i.e. vegetation type), characterizing vegetation color at a 3-day time step • Contains 36 files in *.csv format inside a compressed (*.zip) file. (2) Transition date file: Estimates “greenness rising” (spring) and “greenness falling” (autumn) transition dates derived from the smoothed daily green chromatic coordinate (GCC) values, for each camera and each ROI (i.e. vegetation type) • Contains one file in *.csv format (3) Snow flag files: Indicate days with snow on trees or snow on ground for each experimental enclosure • Contains two files in *.csv format, one for snow on trees and one for snow on ground This data set consists of two sets of companion files: (1) Accompanying HTML files show the 90th quantiles of the mean GCC plotted together with transition dates for each vegetation type and plot. • Contains three files in HTML format, one for each vegetation type • One additional file in HTML format with the transition dates plotted for each vegetation type, by year (2) R files for processing Phenocam files and flags. • Contains five files in R file (*.R) format in one compressed (*.zip) file User Note: All imagery is posted in near-real time to the PhenoCam Project web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/), where it is publicly available. Scroll to “spruce” in the Gallery or link directly to the 29 SPRUCE cameras at https://tinyurl.com/sprucecams. The data reported here are based on the complete camera record from SPRUCE and supersedes the previously released data inclusive of the 2015-2022 data (see Related Data Sets). The estimated transition dates for previously released datasets may differ slightly (in most cases, by ±3 days or less), because following standard PhenoCam processing protocols (Richardson et al. 2018, Scientific Data), smoothing and interpolation, outlier removal, and transition date estimation are always conducted using the full data record.

Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Envir↗
DOE OSTI2025

SPRUCE Vegetation Phenology in Experimental Plots from PhenoCam Imagery, 2015-2024

This data set consists of PhenoCam data from the SPRUCE experiment from the beginning of whole ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017) in August 2015 through March 31 of 2025 (2015-08-24 to 2025-03-31), with start- and end-of-season phenological transition dates derived through the end of autumn 2024. Digital cameras, or phenocams, installed in each SPRUCE enclosure track seasonal variation in vegetation “greenness”, a proxy for vegetation phenology and associated physiological activity. Three separate regions of interest (ROIs) were defined for each camera field of view, corresponding to different vegetation types and demarcating (1) Picea trees (vegetation type EN, for evergreen needleleaf); (2) Larix trees (vegetation type DN, for deciduous needleleaf); and (3) the mixed shrub layer (vegetation type SH). This data set consists of three sets of data files: (1) 3-day summary product files: One file for each camera and each ROI (i.e. vegetation type), characterizing vegetation color at a 3-day time step. • Contains 36 files in *.csv format inside a compressed (*.zip) file. (2) Transition date file: Estimates “greenness rising” (spring) and “greenness falling” (autumn) transition dates derived from the smoothed daily green chromatic coordinate (GCC) values, for each camera and each ROI (i.e., vegetation type). • Contains one file in *.csv format. (3) Snow flag files: Indicate days with snow on trees or snow on ground for each experimental enclosure. • Contains two files in *.csv format, one for snow on trees and one for snow on ground. This data set consists of two sets of companion files: (1) Accompanying HTML files show the 90th quantiles of the mean GCC plotted together with transition dates for each vegetation type and plot. • Contains three files in HTML format, one for each vegetation type. • One additional file in HTML format with the transition dates plotted for each vegetation type, by year. (2) R files for processing PhenoCam files and flags. • Contains five files in R file(*.R) format and the components of the phenocamr package (Version 1.1.4) used for calculating transition dates for 2015-2024. These are contained in a compressed (*.zip) file. User Note: All imagery is posted in near-real time to the PhenoCam Project web page (https://phenocam.nau.edu), where it is publicly available. Scroll to “spruce” in the Gallery or link directly to the 29 SPRUCE cameras at https://tinyurl.com/sprucecams. This data set is based on the complete camera record from SPRUCE and supersedes all previously released PhenoCam datasets (see Related Data Sets). The estimated transition dates for previously released datasets may differ slightly (in most cases, by ±3 days or less), because following standard PhenoCam processing protocols (Richardson et al. 2018, Scientific Data), smoothing and interpolation, outlier removal, and transition date estimation are always conducted using the full data record.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal grassland productivity forecast for the U.S. Great Plains using Grass–Cast

Every spring, ranchers in the drought-prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge —trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass-Cast, to provide science-informed estimates of growing season above ground net primary production (ANPP). Grass-Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite-derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal amounts of grass biomass (lbs/ac). Grass-Cast also provides a view of rangeland productivity in the broader region, to assist in larger scale decision-making—such as where forage resources for grazing might be more plentiful if a rancher’s own region is at risk of drought. Grass-Cast is updated approximately every two weeks from April through July. Each Grass-Cast forecast provides three scenarios of ANPP for the upcoming growing season based on different precipitation outlooks. Near real-time 8-d NDVI can be used to supplement Grass-Cast in predicting cumulative growing season NDVI and ANPP starting in mid-April for the Southern Great Plains and mid-May to early June for the Central and Northern Great Plains. Here, we present the scientific basis and methods for Grass-Cast along with the county-level production forecasts from 2017 and 2018 for ten states in the U.S. Great Plains. The correlation between early growing season forecasts and the end-of growing season ANPP estimate is >50% by late May or early June. In a retrospective evaluation, we compared Grass-Cast end-of-growing season ANPP results to an independent dataset and found that the two agreed 69% of the time over a 20-yr period. Although some predictive tools exist for forecasting upcoming growing season conditions, none predict actual productivity for the entire Great Plains. The Grass-Cast system could be adapted to predict grassland ANPP outside of the Great Plains or to predict perennial biofuel grass production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

DOE Award No.: DE-FE0023919 Phase 3 Scientific/Technical Report

This is the Phase 3 Report for the ‘Deepwater Methane Hydrate Characterization and Scientific Assessment or Genesis of Methane Hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM2)’ research project (DOE Award No. DE-FE0023919). The report summarizes activities from January 16, 2018 to September 30, 2019. The project is led by the University of Texas at Austin (UT). The objective is to gain insight into the nature, formation, occurrence and physical properties of methane hydrate-bearing sediments for the purpose of methane hydrate resource appraisal through the planning and execution of drilling, coring, logging, testing and analytical activities that assess the geologic occurrence, regional context, and characteristics of marine methane hydrate deposits in the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf (OCS). We determined that it would not be possible to pursue the project with the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) and then developed a revised science and operations plan to maximize the science using a commercial vessel within the budget that is available. We improved the scientific capability of the UT pressure core center by adding the ability to X-ray pressure cores, and the ability to cut and store multiple core samples for experimental analysis. We transferred pressure cores to peer institutions, including the National Energy Technology Lab (NETL) the United States Geological Survey (USGS Woods Hole). We made advances in understanding the composition and source of gasses locked in the methane hydrate from Green Canyon 955 (GC-955). We developed approaches to determine the in-situ salinity of hydrate-bearing samples, revealing that the in situ salinity of the GC 955 reservoir is just above that of seawater. We determined that the GC-955 hydrate reservoir is composed of sandy silt with a high concentration of hydrate interbedded with clayey silt with no hydrate present. We determined that some or all of the intervals bounding the hydrate reservoir are composed of material similar to the reservoir (sandy silt with hydrate and clayey silt with no hydrate), but with a lower net to gross. We determined that the reservoir effective permeability at a hydrate saturation of ~80-90 % is ~0.1 mD (or 1.0×10-16 m2) to ~0.5 mD (or 5.0×10-16 m2) and the intrinsic permeability is ~12 mD (or 1.2×10-14 m2). The GC-955 reservoir in-situ porosity of sandy silt is 0.38 to 0.40 and is largely independent of effective stress, and that the porosity of clayey silt is 0.33 at an in situ effective stress of 3.8 MPa to ~0.37 at zero effective stress. We developed a systematic, repeatable approach to studying hydrate reservoir properties by reconstituting individual lithofacies from dissociated pressure cores. We determined index properties of GC-955 reservoir, including liquid limit and plasticity, porosity, capillary behavior, and particle size distribution. We developed a more robust pressure coring technology. We finalized and published the UT-GOM2-1 Expedition Volume and we finalized a dedicated volume on the UT-GOM2-1 expedition that will be published in the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin (AAPG) in spring 2020.

03 NATURAL GAS↗