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Results for “Standard deviation modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Models

Six Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project model simulations are compared with estimates of sea ice thickness derived from pan-Arctic satellite freeboard measurements (2004-2008); airborne electromagnetic measurements (2001-2009); ice draft data from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea, and the Beaufort Sea (1992-2008) and from submarines (1975-2000); and drill hole data from the Arctic basin, Laptev, and East Siberian marginal seas (1982-1986) and coastal stations (1998-2009). Despite an assessment of six models that differ in numerical methods, resolution, domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, the models generally overestimate the thickness of measured ice thinner than approximately 2 mand underestimate the thickness of ice measured thicker than about approximately 2m. In the regions of flat immobile landfast ice (shallow Siberian Seas with depths less than 25-30 m), the models generally overestimate both the total observed sea ice thickness and rates of September and October ice growth from observations by more than 4 times and more than one standard deviation, respectively. The models do not reproduce conditions of fast ice formation and growth. Instead, the modeled fast ice is replaced with pack ice which drifts, generating ridges of increasing ice thickness, in addition to thermodynamic ice growth. Considering all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observations are from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II and Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System models.

sea ice↗
NASA NTRS2009

Regression Model Optimization for the Analysis of Experimental Data

A candidate math model search algorithm was developed at Ames Research Center that determines a recommended math model for the multivariate regression analysis of experimental data. The search algorithm is applicable to classical regression analysis problems as well as wind tunnel strain gage balance calibration analysis applications. The algorithm compares the predictive capability of different regression models using the standard deviation of the PRESS residuals of the responses as a search metric. This search metric is minimized during the search. Singular value decomposition is used during the search to reject math models that lead to a singular solution of the regression analysis problem. Two threshold dependent constraints are also applied. The first constraint rejects math models with insignificant terms. The second constraint rejects math models with near-linear dependencies between terms. The math term hierarchy rule may also be applied as an optional constraint during or after the candidate math model search. The final term selection of the recommended math model depends on the regressor and response values of the data set, the user s function class combination choice, the user s constraint selections, and the result of the search metric minimization. A frequently used regression analysis example from the literature is used to illustrate the application of the search algorithm to experimental data.

Ulbrich, N.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Observation of Higgs boson decay to bottom quarks

The observation of the Standard Model Higgs boson decay to a bottom quark-antiquark pair is presented. The primary contribution to this result is from processes in which the Higgs boson is produced in association with a W or Z boson. The latest measurement of these processes is described, using 41.3 \fb\ of proton-proton collision data at center-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, collected by the CMS experiment in 2017. The significance of the observed excess in data over Standard Model backgrounds is 3.3 standard deviations. The result is combined with similar measurements performed by CMS on previous datasets, resulting in an observed significance of 5.6 standard deviations. The measured signal is well consistent with the Standard Model expectation for a Higgs boson with $m_{\text{H}} = 125$ GeV decaying to bottom quarks, with a precision of 20\%.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Multiscale analysis of the CMB temperature derivatives

We study the Planck CMB temperature at different scales through its derivatives up to second order, which allows one to characterize the local shape and isotropy of the field. The problem of having an incomplete sky in the calculation and statistical characterization of the derivatives is addressed in the paper. The analysis confirms the existence of a low variance in the CMB at large scales, which is also noticeable in the derivatives. Moreover, deviations from the standard model in the gradient, curvature and the eccentricity tensor are studied in terms of extreme values on the data. As it is expected, the Cold Spot is detected as one of the most prominent peaks in terms of curvature, but additionally, when the information of the temperature and its Laplacian are combined, another feature with similar probability at the scale of 10{sup o} is also observed. However, the p -value of these two deviations increase above the 6% when they are referred to the variance calculated from the theoretical fiducial model, indicating that these deviations can be associated to the low variance anomaly. Finally, an estimator of the directional anisotropy for spinorial quantities is introduced, which is applied to the spinors derived from the field derivatives. An anisotropic direction whose probability is <1% is detected in the eccentricity tensor.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1987

Requirements for improved modeling of the orbital atmosphere

Satellite accelerometer data are available for seven time periods during the period 1974 to the present. All seasons and latitudes up to 83 deg are covered. Deviations between the accelerometer data and current models are greatest for high geographic latitudes and high geomagnetic index, although about a 15 percent standard deviation persists between the models and the accelerometer data even at low latitudes and geomagnetically quiet times. Accelerometer data give density times the ballistic coefficient and it is therefore necessary to estimate the time-line of the ballistic coefficient in order to obtain density.

Marcos, Frank A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Performance of mean-frequency estimators for Doppler radar and lidar

The performance of mean-frequency estimators for Doppler radar and lidar measurements of winds is presented in terms of two basic parameters: Phi, the ratio of the average signal energy per estimate to the spectral noise level; and Omega, which is proportional to the number of independent samples per estimate. For fixed Phi and Omega, the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) (theoretical best performance) for unbiased estimators of mean frequency (normalized by the spectral width of the signal), signal power, and spectral width are essentially independent of the number of data samples M. For large Phi, the estimators of mean frequency are unbiased and the performance is independent of M. The spectral domain estimators and covariance based estimators are bounded by the approximate period of M. The spectral domain estimators and covariance based estimators are bounded by the approximate periodogram CRB. The standard deviation of the maximum-likelihood estimator approaches the exact CRB, which can be more than a factor of 2 better than the performance of the spectral domain estimators or covariance-based estimators for typical Omega. For small Phi, the estimators are biased due to the effects of the uncorrelated noise (white noise), which results in uniformly distributed 'bad' estimates. The fraction of bad estimates is a function of Phi and M with weak dependence on the parameter Omega. Simple empirical models describe the standard deviation of the good estimates and the fraction of bad estimates. For Doppler lidar and for large Phi, better performance is obtained by using many low-energy pulses instead of one pulse with the same total energy. For small Phi, the converse is true.

Frehlich, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols - a multi-model comparison

This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014) effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions of NOX, volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including CO), SO2, NH3, black carbon, organic carbon, and concentrations of methane, N2O and ozone-depleting halocarbons, using CMIP6 models. Concentration and emission changes of reactive species can cause multiple changes in the composition of radiatively active species: tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, and methane. Where possible we break down the ERFs from each emitted species into the contributions from the composition changes. The ERFs are calculated for each of the models that participated in the AerChemMIP experiments as part of the CMIP6 project, where the relevant model output was available. The 1850 to 2014 multi-model mean ERFs (± standard deviations) are −1.03 ± 0.37 W/sq.m for SO2 emissions, −0.25 ± 0.09 W/sq.m for organic carbon (OC), 0.15 ± 0.17 W/sq.m for black carbon (BC) and −0.07 ± 0.01 W/sq.m for NH3. For the combined aerosols (in the piClim-aer experiment) it is −1.01 ± 0.25 W/sq.m. The multi-model means for the reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases (including any effects on ozone and aerosol chemistry) are 0.67 ± 0.17 W/sq.m for methane (CH4), 0.26 ± 0.07 W/sq.m for nitrous oxide (N2O) and 0.12 ± 0.2 W/sq.m for ozone-depleting halocarbons (HC). Emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and both together (O3) lead to ERFs of 0.14 ± 0.13, 0.09 ± 0.14 and 0.20 ± 0.07 W/sq.m respectively. The differences in ERFs calculated for the different models reflect differences in the complexity of their aerosol and chemistry schemes, especially in the case of methane where tropospheric chemistry captures increased forcing from ozone production.

radiative forcing↗
DOE OSTI2016

Measurement of the branching ratio of B ¯ 0 → D * + τ - ν ¯ τ relative to B ¯ 0 → D * + ℓ - ν ¯ ℓ decays with a semileptonic tagging method

Here, we report a measurement of the ratio R ( D * ) = B ( B ¯ 0 → D * + τ - ν ¯ τ ) / B ( B ¯ 0 → D * + ℓ - ν ¯ ℓ ) , where ℓ denotes an electron or a muon. The results are based on a data sample containing 772 × 1 0 6 B B ¯ pairs recorded at the Υ ( 4 S ) resonance with the Belle detector at the KEKB e + e - collider. We select a sample of B 0 B ¯ 0 pairs by reconstructing both B mesons in semileptonic decays to D * ∓ ℓ ± . We measure R ( D * ) = 0.302 ± 0.030 ( stat ) ± 0.011 ( syst ) , which is within 1.6 σ of the Standard Model theoretical expectation, where the standard deviation σ includes systematic uncertainties. We use this measurement to constrain several scenarios of new physics in a model-independent technique.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainty Quantification in Scale-Dependent Models of Flow in Porous Media

Equations governing flow and transport in heterogeneous porous media are scale-dependent. We demonstrate that it is possible to identify a support scale $\eta^*$, such that the typically employed approximate formulations of Moment Equations (ME) yield accurate (statistical) moments of a target environmental state variable. Under these circumstances, the ME approach can be used as an alternative to the Monte Carlo (MC) method for Uncertainty Quantification in diverse fields of Earth and environmental sciences. MEs are directly satisfied by the leading moments of the quantities of interest and are defined on the same support scale as the governing stochastic partial differential equations (PDEs). Computable approximations of the otherwise exact MEs can be obtained through perturbation expansion of moments of the state variables in orders of the standard deviation of the random model parameters. As such, their convergence is guaranteed only for the standard deviation smaller than one. Furthermore, we demonstrate our approach in the context of steady-state groundwater flow in a porous medium with a spatially random hydraulic conductivity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Toward the Frontiers of Particle Physics With the Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Experiment

The Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Experiment (E989) at Fermilab has a goal of measuring the muon anomaly ($a_\mu$) with unprecedented precision using positive muons. This measurement is motivated by the difference between the previous Brookhaven $a_\mu$ measurement and Standard Model prediction exceeding three standard deviations, which hints at the possibility of physics beyond the Standard Model. Muons are circulated in a storage ring, and the measurement requires a precise determination of the muon anomalous precession frequency (spin precession relative to momentum) from the resulting decay positron time and energy measurements collected with calorimeters. The average magnetic field seen by the muons needs to be known with high precision, and so the storage ring magnetic field is shimmed to be very uniform and is continually monitored with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) probes. Detailed Muon Campus beamline and muon storage ring simulations are also required for quantifying beam dynamics and spin-related systematic effects in the determination of the muon anomalous precession frequency, e.g. muon losses during the measurement window. At the time of the conference, the experiment has recently commenced Run-3, and the release of Run-1 physics results is planned for 2020.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Search for doubly charged scalar bosons decaying into same-sign W boson pairs with the ATLAS detector

A search for doubly charged scalar bosons decaying into W boson pairs is presented. It uses a data sample from proton–proton collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb -1 collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. This search is guided by a model that includes an extension of the Higgs sector through a scalar triplet, leading to a rich phenomenology that includes doubly charged scalar bosons H &#x00B1;<!-- ± --> &#x00B1;<!-- ± --> . Those bosons are produced in pairs in proton–proton collisions and decay predominantly into electroweak gauge bosons H &#x00B1;<!-- ± --> &#x00B1;<!-- ± --> &#x2192;<!-- → --> W &#x00B1;<!-- ± --> W &#x00B1;<!-- ± --> . Experimental signatures with several leptons, missing transverse energy and jets are explored. No significant deviations from the Standard Model predictions are found. The parameter space of the benchmark model is excluded at 95% confidence level for H &#x00B1;<!-- ± --> &#x00B1;<!-- ± --> bosons with masses between 200 and 220 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for pair production of boosted Higgs bosons via vector-boson fusion in the $b$$\overline{b}$$b$$\overline{b}$ final state using $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for Higgs boson pair production via vector-boson fusion is performed in the Lorentz-boosted regime, where a Higgs boson candidate is reconstructed as a single large-radius jet, using 140 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Only Higgs boson decays into bottom quark pairs are considered. The search is particularly sensitive to the quartic coupling between two vector bosons and two Higgs bosons relative to its Standard Model prediction, K 2V . This study constrains K 2V to 0.55 < K 2V < 1.49 at the 95% confidence level. The value K 2V = 0 is excluded with a significance of 3.8 standard deviations with other Higgs boson couplings fixed to their Standard Model values. A search for new heavy spin-0 resonances that would mediate Higgs boson pair production via vector-boson fusion is carried out in the mass range of 1–5 TeV for the first time under several model and decay-width assumptions. No significant deviation from the Standard Model hypothesis is observed and exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level are derived.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Investigating Sources of Variability and Error in Simulations of Carbon Dioxide in an Urban Region

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimation methods that use atmospheric trace gas observations, including inverse modeling techniques, perform better when carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are more accurately transported and dispersed in the atmosphere by a numerical model. In urban areas, transport and dispersion is particularly difficult to simulate using current mesoscale meteorological models due, in part, to added complexity from surface heterogeneity and fine spatial/temporal scales. It is generally assumed that the errors in GHG estimation methods in urban areas are dominated by errors in transport and dispersion. Other significant errors include, but are not limited to, those from assumed emissions magnitude and spatial distribution. To assess the predictability of simulated trace gas mole fractions in urban observing systems using a numerical weather prediction model, we employ an Eulerian model that combines traditional meteorological variables with multiple passive tracers of atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic inventories and a biospheric model. The predictability of the Eulerian model is assessed by comparing simulated atmospheric CO2 mole fractions to observations from four in situ tower sites (three urban and one rural) in the Washington DC/Baltimore, MD area for February 2016. Four different gridded fossil fuel emissions inventories along with a biospheric flux model are used to create an ensemble of simulated atmospheric CO2 observations within the model. These ensembles help to evaluate whether the modeled observations are impacted more by the underlying emissions or transport. The spread of modeled observations using the four emission fields indicates the model's ability to distinguish between the different inventories under various meteorological conditions. Overall, the Eulerian model performs well; simulated and observed average CO2 mole fractions agree within 1% when averaged at the three urban sites across the month. However, there can be differences greater than 10% at any given hour, which are attributed to complex meteorological conditions rather than differences in the inventories themselves. On average, the mean absolute error of the simulated compared to actual observations is generally twice as large as the standard deviation of the modeled mole fractions across the four emission inventories. This result supports the assumption, in urban domains, that the predicted mole fraction error relative to observations is dominated by errors in model meteorology rather than errors in the underlying fluxes in winter months. As such, minimizing errors associated with atmospheric transport and dispersion may help improve the performance of GHG estimation models more so than improving flux priors in the winter months. We also find that the errors associated with atmospheric transport in urban domains are not restricted to certain times of day. This suggests that atmospheric inversions should use CO2 observations that have been filtered using meteorological observations rather than assuming that meteorological modeling is most accurate at certain times of day (such as using only mid-afternoon observations).

CO2↗
DOE OSTI2016

Scalar-tensor extension of the ΛCDM model

We construct a cosmological scalar-tensor-theory model in which the Brans-Dicke type scalar Φ enters the effective (Jordan-frame) Hubble rate as a simple modification of the Hubble rate of the ΛCDM model. This allows us to quantify differences between the background dynamics of scalar-tensor theories and general relativity (GR) in a transparent and observationally testable manner in terms of one single parameter. Problems of the mapping of the scalar-field degrees of freedom on an effective fluid description in a GR context are discused. Data from supernovae, the differential age of old galaxies and baryon acoustic oscillations are shown to strongly limit potential deviations from the standard model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Search for a right-handed gauge boson decaying into a high-momentum heavy neutrino and a charged lepton in p p collisions with the ATLAS detector at s = 13 TeV

CERN-LHC, ATLAS. A search for a right-handed gauge boson WR, decaying into a boosted right-handed heavy neutrino NR, in the framework of Left-Right Symmetric Models is presented. It is based on data from proton-proton collisions with a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider during the years 2015, 2016 and 2017, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 80 fb−1. The search is performed separately for electrons and muons in the final state. A distinguishing feature of the search is the use of large-radius jets containing electrons. Selections based on the signal topology result in smaller background compared with to expected signal. No significant deviation from the Standard Model prediction is observed and lower limits are set in the WR and NR mass plane. Mass values of the WR smaller than 3.8-5 TeV are excluded for NR in the mass range 0.1-1.8 TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-resolution leaf area index maps generated from unoccupied aerial system, Teller Mile 27, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Leaf area index (LAI), a measure of the amount of one-side leaf area per ground unit, is an important indicator of plant carbon, energy, and water cycle. In the heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, it has been challenging to accurately measure LAI across species and space needed for Earth system model validation. Here, we use multispectral unoccupied aerial systems (UASs) to scale up and map leaf area index (LAI) , in a low-Arctic tundra landscape on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We linked previous published LAI measurements with high-resolution, UAS-collected multispectral data collected over the region of Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic)’s Teller Mile Maker 27 site in 2022 to develop random forest (RF) machine learning models to predict and map LAI. 100 RF models were developed to account for uncertainties in ground LAI plot measurements and process scaling. This dataset includes a raster (*.tif) map of the mean LAI value of the 100 RF models, a raster (*.tif) map of the standard deviation of the RF-modeled LAI data, and a user guide (*.pdf).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for Neutral Heavy Scalars in ttZ Events Using 13 TeV pp Collisions at CMS

This thesis presents a search for a heavy pseudoscalar particle, A, which decays into a lighterscalar, H, and a Z boson within the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model (2HDM). We focus on Zboson decays to leptons, with H decays into a t t ̄ pair. The search uses the Asimov dataset–a theoretical dataset generated to predict the expected results for discovery and exclusion based on conditions from proton-proton collisions at the LHC, atintegrated luminosity of 138f b−1, as recorded by the CMS detector. The analysis focuses on events with three charged leptons, two of which come from the Z boson decay and one from a top quark decay. The expected results suggest the search has high sensitivity, showing discovery potential across much of the 2HDM Type-II parameter space, with possible deviations from the Standard Model background exceeding 5σ significance. The search sets upper limits on the cross-section times branching ratio, assuming narrow particle widths, for A masses up to 2100 GeV and H masses up to 1900 GeV. The results are interpreted in the 2HDM Type-II framework to exclude certain regions of parameter space at the 95% confidence level as a function of particle masses and variables such as tanβ and cos(β−α). The findings highlight the potential reach implications of future search in this parameter region.

Rudrabhatla, Sahithi [Illinois U., Chicago]↗