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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Transferable Kinetic Monte Carlo Models with Thousands of Reactions Learned from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of complex chemistry typically involves thousands of atoms propagating over millions of time steps, generating a wealth of data. Traditionally these data are used to calculate some aggregate properties of the system and then discarded, but we propose that these data can be reused to study related chemical systems. Using approximate chemical kinetic models and methods from statistical learning, we study hydrocarbon chemistries under extreme thermodynamic conditions. We discover that a single MD simulation can contain sufficient information about reactions and rates to predict the dynamics of related yet different chemical systems using kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulation. Our learned KMC models identify thousands of reactions and run four orders of magnitude faster than MD. In conclusion, the transferability of these models suggests that we can viably reuse data from existing MD simulations to accelerate future simulation studies and reduce the number of new MD simulations required.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Machine-Learning-Based Predictive Modeling of Glass Transition Temperatures: A Case of Polyhydroxyalkanoate Homopolymers and Copolymers

Polyhydroxyalkanoate-based polymers—being ecofriendly, biosynthesizable, and economically viable and possessing a broad range of tunable properties—are currently being actively pursued as promising alternatives for petroleum-based plastics. The vast chemical complexity accessible within this class of polymers gives rise to challenges in the rational discovery of novel polymer chemistries for specific applications. Here, the burgeoning field of polymer informatics addresses this challenge via providing tools and strategies for accelerated property prediction and materials design via surrogate machine-learning models built on reliable past data. In this contribution, we use glass transition temperature T g as an example target property to demonstrate promise of the data-enabled route to accelerated learning of accurate structure–property mappings in PHA-based polymers. Our analysis uses a data set of experimentally measured T g values, polymer molecular weights, and a polydispersity index for PHA-based homo- and copolymers that was carefully assembled from the literature. A fingerprinting scheme that captures key properties based on topology, shape, and charge/polarity of specific chemical units or motifs forming the polymer backbone was devised to numerically represent the polymers. A validated statistical learning model is then developed to allow for a mapping of the polymer fingerprints onto the property space in a physically meaningful and reliable manner. Once developed, the model can not only rapidly predict the property of new PHA polymers but also provide uncertainties underlying the predictions. The model is further combined with an evolutionary-algorithm-based search strategy to efficiently identify multicomponent polymer compositions with a prespecified T g . While the present contribution is focused specifically on T g , the surrogate model development approach put forward here is general and can, in principle, be extended to a range of other properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of sensor measurement errors in reactor coolant systems using multi-sensor fusion

A nuclear power plant is typically instrumented with a variety of sensors to continually monitor its variables, and their sensor’s measurements may be used to assess the plant state and initiate safety actions, if needed. Errors in sensor measurements, due to factors such as calibration drifts, critically affect such state assessments. Here, we address a problem of estimating sensor errors using physics-informed machine learning methods that use measurements collected under known plant conditions. For a given sensor, we propose an information fusion method that uses measurements from other sensors to estimate its output assuming it is error-free and provides its difference from an actual measurement as an error estimate. We present the ensemble of trees and support vector machine fusers, and evaluate their performance using measurements collected over an emulated test loop of a pressurized water reactor. The plant variables are related to each other through the underlying physical laws under inertial constraints that place bounds on their derivatives, which analytically justify the applicability of machine learning methods for computing these fusers. Under twenty scenarios, we assess their sensor error estimates for pressure sensors of the heat exchanger of a reactor’s primary coolant system. Multiple types of errors are captured by both fusers under externally induced calibration drifts, blockages, minor leaks and air gaps in sensing lines, and electromagnetic interference; the root mean square error of the estimation of error is under 2.2% percent of the maximum measurement. We present generalization equations, in the framework of statistical learning theory, for these methods that characterize the confidence probability that the estimation error is bounded by a specified parameter in future test scenarios.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

LENS: Learning Enabled Network Synthesis

RTRC and UMD have developed novel machine learning based methods under the ARPA-E DIFFERENTIATE program for rapid acceleration of hypothesis generation in complex architecture design spaces involving both discrete choices of component inclusion and interconnection and continuous parametric decisions. The project named Learning Enabled Network Synthesis (LENS) further demonstrated the developed methods on challenging electrical power converter design problems by identifying the most suitable circuit topologies and simultaneously selecting the most appropriate components to achieve optimized design of power converter with improved performances. We demonstrated that LENS could enable exploration of very large design space of circuit topologies and components by addressing the limitations of conventional design process in non-linear, high switching speed, multi-dimensional power converter design and optimization. The key innovation developed in LENS is the seamless integration of statistical learning and logical reasoning techniques and building on the individual strengths of these techniques for rapid hypothesis discovery. The main component of LENS comprises of: 1) Graph Reasoning Engine (GRE) to enforce composition rules that rapidly reject all discrete architectures that are composed incorrectly and generates an adaptive database of feasible designs which can be used by ML modules, 2) Graph Generative Learning module which is a deep neural network based generative model for graph architectures which can enable design space exploration beyond the dataset generated by the GRE, 3) Graph Reduced Order Model (ROM) for graph domains for accelerating computation of output metrics, and 4) Active learning and Rule Discovery module for sample efficient learning and extracting logical rules from the learned ML models which will be integrated in the GRE to enhance the filtering effectiveness. LENS approach can be applied to any design domains where designs can be represented as multi-attribute graphs. The LENS team integrated the various technical innovations listed above into an optimization pipeline and exercised the optimization pipeline on the converter design problem. The LENS project demonstrated that the developed AI/ML technologies can be used to generate novel converter circuits >45x faster than experts on chosen use-cases. This can enable faster design space exploration and identification of new designs which are not considered by experts due to the increasing design space complexity. This has significant potential impact on the public and energy needs of the country. It is currently estimated that 30% of all electrical powers generated passes through power converters. The future estimate is that 80% of all power generated would be passing through converters. LENS fills a critical gap in this space since by accelerating the design process the designers would be able to generate more efficient converters which can lead to significant energy savings for the country.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Transport as a Tool for Scientific Discovery in Radiation Biology

This report summarizes findings from research conducted for the “Exploration of the Poten tial for Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to Advance Low-Dose Radiation Biology Re search” (RadBio-AI) program, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, under Awards KP1601011/FWP CC121 and KP1601017/FWP CC121. The research reported here was undertaken in an effort to assess the potential of optimal measure transport methods as components within the larger scope of a com putational framework envisioned to support research in the radiation biology domain. Within this effort, our interest centered on enabling a unified generic framework where probabilistic modeling, inference, and statistical learning can be carried out for a wide range of data distributions. As described next in Section 1 (and in more detail in our original publication), optimal measure transport offers the possibility of such unified approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correlative piezoresponse and micro-Raman imaging of CuInP 2 S 6 –In 4/3 P 2 S 6 flakes unravels phase-specific phononic fingerprint via unsupervised learning

Characterizing the novel properties of layered van der Waals materials is key for their application in functional devices. A better understanding of this type of material requires correlative imaging of diverse nanoscale material properties. Within this class of materials, CuInP 2 S 6 (CIPS) has received a significant degree of interest due to its ionically mediated room temperature ferroelectricity. Moreover, it is possible to form stable self-assembled heterostructures of ferroelectric CuInP 2 S 6 (CIPS) and non-ferroelectric (i.e., lacking Cu) In 4/3 P 2 S 6 (IPS) phases, by controlling the targeted composition and kinetics of synthesis. In this work, we present a correlative nanometric imaging study of the phononic modes and piezoelectricity of the phase-separated thin heteroepitaxial CIPS/IPS flakes. Here, we show that it is possible to isolate the different phononic modes of the two phases by spatially correlating them with their distinct ferroelectric behavior. The coupling of our experimental data with unsupervised learning statistical methods enables unraveling specific Raman peaks that are characteristic of each chemical phase (CIPS and IPS) present in the composite sample, discarding the less significant ones.

correlative microscopy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Report on the AAPM grand challenge on deep generative modeling for learning medical image statistics

Abstract Background The findings of the 2023 AAPM Grand Challenge on Deep Generative Modeling for Learning Medical Image Statistics are reported in this Special Report. Purpose The goal of this challenge was to promote the development of deep generative models for medical imaging and to emphasize the need for their domain‐relevant assessments via the analysis of relevant image statistics. Methods As part of this Grand Challenge, a common training dataset and an evaluation procedure was developed for benchmarking deep generative models for medical image synthesis. To create the training dataset, an established 3D virtual breast phantom was adapted. The resulting dataset comprised about 108 000 images of size 512 512. For the evaluation of submissions to the Challenge, an ensemble of 10 000 DGM‐generated images from each submission was employed. The evaluation procedure consisted of two stages. In the first stage, a preliminary check for memorization and image quality (via the Fréchet Inception Distance [FID]) was performed. Submissions that passed the first stage were then evaluated for the reproducibility of image statistics corresponding to several feature families including texture, morphology, image moments, fractal statistics, and skeleton statistics. A summary measure in this feature space was employed to rank the submissions. Additional analyses of submissions was performed to assess DGM performance specific to individual feature families, the four classes in the training data, and also to identify various artifacts. Results Fifty‐eight submissions from 12 unique users were received for this Challenge. Out of these 12 submissions, 9 submissions passed the first stage of evaluation and were eligible for ranking. The top‐ranked submission employed a conditional latent diffusion model, whereas the joint runners‐up employed a generative adversarial network, followed by another network for image superresolution. In general, we observed that the overall ranking of the top 9 submissions according to our evaluation method (i) did not match the FID‐based ranking, and (ii) differed with respect to individual feature families. Another important finding from our additional analyses was that different DGMs demonstrated similar kinds of artifacts. Conclusions This Grand Challenge highlighted the need for domain‐specific evaluation to further DGM design as well as deployment. It also demonstrated that the specification of a DGM may differ depending on its intended use.

Radiology, Nuclear Medicine & Medical Imaging↗
DOE OSTI2023

DEEPEN 3D PFA Weights for Exploration Datasets in Magmatic Environments

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. As part of the development of the DEEPEN 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology for magmatic plays (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical), weights needed to be developed for use in the weighted sum of the different favorability index models produced from geoscientific exploration datasets. This GDR submission includes those weights. The weighting was done using two different approaches: one based on expert opinions, and one based on statistical learning. The weights are intended to describe how useful a particular exploration method is for imaging each component of each play type. They may be adjusted based on the characteristics of the resource under investigation, knowledge of the quality of the dataset, or simply to reduce the impact a single dataset has on the resulting outputs. Within the DEEPEN PFA, separate sets of weights are produced for each component of each play type, since exploration methods hold different levels of importance for detecting each play component, within each play type. The weights for conventional hydrothermal systems were based on the average of the normalized weights used in the DOE-funded PFA projects that were focused on magmatic plays. This decision was made because conventional hydrothermal plays are already well-studied and understood, and therefore it is logical to use existing weights where possible. In contrast, a true PFA has never been applied to superhot EGS or supercritical plays, meaning that exploration methods have never been weighted in terms of their utility in imaging the components of these plays. To produce weights for superhot EGS and supercritical plays, two different approaches were used: one based on expert opinion and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and another using a statistical approach based on principal component analysis (PCA). The weights are intended to provide standardized sets of weights for each play type in all magmatic geothermal systems. Two different approaches were used to investigate whether a more data-centric approach might allow new insights into the datasets, and also to analyze how different weighting approaches impact the outcomes. The expert/AHP approach involved using an online tool (https://bpmsg.com/ahp/) with built-in forms to make pairwise comparisons which are used to rank exploration methods against one-another. The inputs are then combined in a quantitative way, ultimately producing a set of consensus-based weights. To minimize the burden on each individual participant, the forms were completed in group discussions. While the group setting means that there is potential for some opinions to outweigh others, it also provides a venue for conversation to take place, in theory leading the group to a more robust consensus then what can be achieved on an individual basis. This exercise was done with two separate groups: one consisting of U.S.-based experts, and one consisting of Iceland-based experts in magmatic geothermal systems. The two sets of weights were then averaged to produce what we will from here on refer to as the "expert opinion-based weights," or "expert weights" for short. While expert opinions allow us to include more nuanced information in the weights, expert opinions are subject to human bias. Data-centric or statistical approaches help to overcome these potential human biases by focusing on and drawing conclusions from the data alone. More information on this approach along with the dataset used to produce the statistical weights may be found in the linked dataset below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Technologies for Advanced Reactors (Workshop Summary Report)

A workshop on artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) for advanced reactors (AR) was held October 5-6, 2021. The workshop was to be attended in-person at ANL but COVID restrictions forced the workshop to go virtual. The objectives of the workshop were to identify the most promising AI/ML opportunities for improving advanced reactor design, optimizing plant performance, and enhancing economic competitiveness and to develop an understanding of the scientific, engineering and licensing challenges facing their application. The workshop planning committee included GAIN, EPRI and NEI and members of three national laboratories (ANL, INL, and ORNL). The workshop was attended by more than 200 individuals representing academic and scientific institutions and the nuclear power industry. The definition put forth for an AI/ML system was one that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chance of achieving its goals. In this report AI/ML refers to next generation algorithms that include deep learning, statistical analysis and data analytics and associated scientific computing and their potential application to the design, licensing, operation and maintenance of ARs. These methods typically incorporate models built from process data and may also include data generated by simulations that represent the behavior of a system. The workshop was organized in response to the growing interest in application of AI/ML for improving the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy. Increasingly more resources are being allocated to investigating the benefits of AI/ML methods. The DOE created the Artificial Intelligence & Technology Office to promote their development. And within the Office of Nuclear Energy, resources have been allocated to explore and understand the potential benefits of AI/ML. Additionally, the national laboratories are strategically positioned with DOE computing facilities such as Summit, Perlmutter, Aurora and Frontier that support large-scale simulations, hybrid HPC models with AI surrogates, and the exploration of new types of generative models emerging from multi-model data streams and sources. The workshop was organized with members of the AR community to understand the effort and to identify the level of interest and progress in this emerging technology. The workshop discussions focused on identifying opportunities for AI/ML across diverse areas of the nuclear industry and identifying current scientific and engineering challenges for advanced reactors that might be addressed through transformational uses of AI/ML. Discussion panels focused on four high-interest technical domains for advanced reactors: design, maintenance and operations, energy storage, and materials. The results of those discussions are summarized in this report. This includes opportunities that were identified for exploiting AI techniques and methods to improve the efficacy and efficiency of reactor analysis and to improve the operation and optimization of advanced reactors. Advanced reactor developers expressed an interest in learning more about AI/ML methods and their application. This included understanding whether ML methods can provide an advantage over existing nonlinear data regression methods for collapsing high-fidelity simulation results into faster running models. A consensus emerged that AR advances planned for the next decade will benefit from the use of AI/ML tools. The need exists to understand and model complex systems across length scales and modalities. AI/ML is a tool for discovery that can yield a set of engineering principles for use by nuclear engineers, licensing bodies, and operators to solve problems in plant design, safety analyses, autonomous operation, and predictive maintenance. While AI/ML represents a new set of tools, an awareness by the nuclear community of the full potential is still in the early stages so there is a need to increase awareness. It appears that the wide-spread adoption of AI/ML tools for ARs would be facilitated by future educational workshops that describe foundational methods and capabilities and describe successful applications.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking FFTF LOFWOS Test# 13 using SAM code: Baseline model development and uncertainty quantification

The development and deployment of advanced reactors, such as the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), relies on sophisticated modeling tools to ensure the safety of the design under various transients. The predictive capability of these advanced modeling tools requires validation to garner trust in supporting the licensing of the advanced reactors. For this reason, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiated a coordinated research project (CRP) in 2018 for the analysis of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) Test #13.In this study, we present and discuss the benchmarking efforts of the modern system code SAM on the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13. Further, the SAM baseline model was developed according to the benchmark specification, which included a detailed core model with reactivity feedback. Generally, good agreement was observed between the baseline results and benchmark measurements; however, discrepancies persisted, particularly in predicted fuel assembly coolant outlet temperatures. Utilizing the baseline model, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) were conducted with the assistance of various statistical learning and machine learning methods, including kernel density estimation, Gaussian processes, and Sobol indices. Following the baseline model prediction and UQ and SA results, we discuss the reasons for the simulation discrepancies and propose further improvements to the model. This benchmarking effort adheres to the best-estimate plus uncertainty approach and can serve as a valuable example for supporting risk-informed licensing of advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Matminer: An open source toolkit for materials data mining

As materials data sets grow in size and scope, the role of data mining and statistical learning methods to analyze these materials data sets and build predictive models is becoming more important. This manuscript introduces matminer, an open-source, Python-based software platform to facilitate data-driven methods of analyzing and predicting materials properties. Matminer provides modules for retrieving large data sets from external databases such as the Materials Project, Citrination, Materials Data Facility, and Materials Platform for Data Science. It also provides implementations for an extensive library of feature extraction routines developed by the materials community, with 47 featurization classes that can generate thousands of individual descriptors and combine them into mathematical functions. Finally, matminer provides a visualization module for producing interactive, shareable plots. These functions are designed in a way that integrates closely with machine learning and data analysis packages already developed and in use by the Python data science community. We explain the structure and logic of matminer, provide a description of its various modules, and showcase several examples of how matminer can be used to collect data, reproduce data mining studies reported in the literature, and test new methodologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning in materials science: From explainable predictions to autonomous design

The advent of big data and algorithmic developments in the field of machine learning (and artificial intelligence, in general) have greatly impacted the entire spectrum of physical sciences, including materials science. Materials data, measured or computed, combined with various techniques of machine learning have been employed to address a myriad of challenging problems, such as, development of efficient and predictive surrogate models for a range of materials properties, screening and down-selection of novel candidate materials for targeted applications, new methodologies to improve and further expedite molecular and atomistic simulations, with likely many more important developments to come in the foreseeable future. While the applications thus far have provided a glimpse of the true potential data-enabled routes have to offer, it has also become clear that further progress in this direction hinges on our ability to understand, explain and rationalize findings of a machine learning model in light of the domain-knowledge. This focused review provides an overview of the main areas where machine learning has been widely and successfully used in materials science. Subsequently, a brief discussion of several techniques that have been helpful in extracting physically-meaningful insights, causal relationships and design-centric knowledge from materials data is provided. Finally, we identify some of the imminent opportunities and challenges that materials community faces in this exciting and rapidly growing field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Database-wide hazard modelling of the onset of DIII-D tearing modes with field features

The rate of onset (hazard) of tearing modes is modelled probabilistically using statistical learning algorithms. Axisymmetric energy-density equilibrium fields are taken as raw high-dimensional input features which are reduced with principal component analysis. Signal processing of non-axisymmetric magnetics fluctuation array data provides the target information from which to learn. Model selection, visualization and calibration assessment procedures are detailed. Here, the analysis is deployed at large scale across the DIII-D tokamak database. Standard model selection criteria suggest that the energy-density post-processed feature is a better choice for modelling the onset rate compared to the non-processed equilibrium reconstruction solution. Two example applications of the learned rate function are demonstrated: (i) proximity-to-onset discharge monitoring and (ii) database analysis showing an (expected) observational global trend that the general hazard increases as a plasma performance metric increases. An important connection between the hazard function and its use as a conditional probability generator is reviewed in the Appendix.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

High-Throughput Equilibrium Analysis of Active Materials for Solar Thermochemical Ammonia Synthesis

Solar thermochemical ammonia (NH 3 ) synthesis (STAS) is a potential route to produce NH 3 from air, water, and concentrated sunlight. This process involves the chemical looping of an active redox pair that cycles between a metal nitride and its complementary metal oxide to yield NH 3 . To identify promising candidates for STAS cycles, we performed a high-throughput thermodynamic screening of 1,148 metal nitride/metal oxide pairs. This data-driven screening was based on Gibbs energies of crystalline metal oxides and nitrides at elevated temperatures, G(T), calculated using a recently introduced statistically learned descriptor and 0 K DFT formation energies tabulated in the Materials Project database. Using these predicted G(T) values, we assessed the viability of each of the STAS reactions - hydrolysis of the metal nitride, reduction of the metal oxide, and nitrogen fixation to reform the metal nitride - and analyzed a revised cycle that directly converts between metal oxides and nitrides, which alters the thermodynamics of the STAS cycle. For all 1148 redox pairs analyzed and each of the STAS-relevant reactions, we implemented a Gibbs energy minimization scheme to predict the equilibrium composition and yields of the STAS cycle, which reveals new active materials based on B, V, Fe, and Ce that warrant further investigation for their potential to mediate the STAS cycle. This work details a high-throughput approach to assessing the relevant temperature-dependent thermodynamics of thermochemical redox processes that leverages the wealth of publicly available temperature-independent thermodynamic data calculated using DFT. This approach is readily adaptable to discovering optimal materials for targeted thermochemical applications and enabling the predictive synthesis of new compounds using thermally controlled solid-state reactions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inorganic Halide Double Perovskites with Optoelectronic Properties Modulated by Sublattice Mixing

All-inorganic halide double perovskites have emerged as a promising class of materials that are potentially more stable and less toxic than lead-containing hybrid organic-inorganic perovskite optoelectronic materials. In this work, 311 cesium chloride double perovskites (Cs 2 BB'Cl 6 ) were selected from a set of 903 compounds as likely being stable on the basis of a statistically learned tolerance factor (t) for perovskite stability. First-principles calculations on these 311 double perovskites were then performed to assess their stability and identify candidates with band gaps appropriate for optoelectronic applications. We predict that 261 of the 311 Cs 2 BB'Cl 6 compounds are likely synthesizable on the basis of a thermodynamic analysis of their decomposition to competing compounds (decomposition enthalpy <0.05 eV/atom). Of these 261 likely synthesizable compounds, 47 contain no toxic elements and have direct or nearly direct (within 100 meV) band gaps between 1 and 3 eV, as computed with hybrid density functional theory (HSE06). Within this set, we identify the triple-alkali perovskites Cs 2 [Alk] + [TM] 3+ Cl 6 , where Alk is a group 1 alkali cation and TM is a transition-metal cation, as a class of Cs 2 BB'Cl 6 double perovskites with remarkable optical properties, including large and tunable exciton binding energies as computed by the GW-Bethe-Salpeter equation (GW-BSE) method. We attribute the unusual electronic structure of these compounds to the mixing of the Alk-Cl and TM-Cl sublattices, leading to materials with small band gaps, large exciton binding energies, and absorption spectra that are strongly influenced by the identity of the transition metal. The role of the double-perovskite structure in enabling these unique properties is probed through an analysis of the electronic structures and chemical bonding of these compounds in comparison with other transition-metal and alkali transition-metal halides.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increasing sensitivity of dryland vegetation greenness to precipitation due to rising atmospheric CO 2

Water availability plays a critical role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in low- and mid-latitude regions. The sensitivity of vegetation growth to precipitation strongly regulates global vegetation dynamics and their responses to drought, yet sensitivity changes in response to climate change remain poorly understood. Here we use long-term satellite observations combined with a dynamic statistical learning approach to examine changes in the sensitivity of vegetation greenness to precipitation over the past four decades. We observe a robust increase in precipitation sensitivity (0.624% yr –1 ) for drylands, and a decrease (–0.618% yr –1 ) for wet regions. Using model simulations, we show that the contrasting trends between dry and wet regions are caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ). eCO 2 universally decreases the precipitation sensitivity by reducing leaf-level transpiration, particularly in wet regions. However, in drylands, this leaf-level transpiration reduction is overridden at the canopy scale by a large proportional increase in leaf area. The increased sensitivity for global drylands implies a potential decrease in ecosystem stability and greater impacts of droughts in these vulnerable ecosystems under continued global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exacerbated drought impacts on global ecosystems due to structural overshoot

Vegetation dynamics are affected not only by the concurrent climate but also by memory-induced lagged responses. For example, favourable climate in the past could stimulate vegetation growth to surpass the ecosystem carrying capacity, leaving an ecosystem vulnerable to climate stresses. This phenomenon, known as structural overshoot, could potentially contribute to worldwide drought stress and forest mortality but the magnitude of the impact is poorly known due to the dynamic nature of overshoot and complex influencing timescales. Here, we use a dynamic statistical learning approach to identify and characterize ecosystem structural overshoot globally and quantify the associated drought impacts. We find that structural overshoot contributed to around 11% of drought events during 1981-2015 and is often associated with compound extreme drought and heat, causing faster vegetation declines and greater drought impacts compared to non-overshoot related droughts. The fraction of droughts related to overshoot is strongly related to mean annual temperature, with biodiversity, aridity and land cover as secondary factors. These results highlight the large role vegetation dynamics play in drought development and suggest that soil water depletion due to warming-induced future increases in vegetation could cause more frequent and stronger overshoot droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Representing local atomic environment using descriptors based on local correlations

Statistical learning of material properties is an emerging topic of research and has been tremendously successful in areas such as representing complex energy landscapes as well as in technologically relevant areas, like identification of better catalysts and electronic materials. However, analysis of large data sets to efficiently learn characteristic features of a complex energy landscape, for example, depends on the ability of descriptors to effectively screen different local atomic environments. Thus, discovering appropriate descriptors of bulk or defect properties and the functional dependence of such properties on these descriptors remains a difficult and tedious process. To this end, we develop here a framework to generate descriptors based on many-body correlations that can effectively capture intrinsic geometric features of the local environment of an atom. These descriptors are based on the spectrum of two-body, three-body, four-body, and higher order correlations between an atom and its neighbors and are evaluated by calculating the corresponding two-body, three-body, and four-body overlap integrals. They are invariant to global translation, global rotation, reflection, and permutations of atomic indices. By systematically testing the ability to capture the local atomic environment, it is shown that the local correlation descriptors are able to successfully reconstruct structures containing 10-25 atoms which was previously not possible.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗