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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of adaptive cruise control on fuel consumption in real-world driving conditions

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of adaptive cruise control on energy consumption in real-world driving conditions based on a natural experiment: a large-scale observational dataset of driving data from a diverse fleet of vehicles and drivers. The analysis is conducted at two different fidelity levels: (1) a macroscopic trip-level benefit estimate that compares trips with and without cruise control in a counterfactual way using statistical methods, and (2) a situation-based comparison achieved through the segmentation of trips into distinct driving situations such as acceleration, braking, cruising, and other maneuvers. The results of this research show that the effect of cruise control on energy consumption varies across different driving situations and levels of analysis. In a macroscopic trip-level analysis, cruise control engagement is associated with a slight increase in fuel consumption across the fleet. As revealed later by the situation-based analysis, this result can be attributed to the negative impact of cruise control on energy consumption in cruising mode, which is the most common driving situation. However, the situation-based comparison demonstrates that cruise control can provide fuel consumption benefits in situations involving acceleration and braking, particularly when a preceding vehicle is present. The study also emphasizes the importance of controlling for various factors that can influence both fuel consumption and the likelihood of cruise control engagement to properly evaluate its effects.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous platform for solution processing of electronic polymers

The manipulation of electronic polymers’ solid-state properties through processing is crucial in electronics and energy research. Yet, efficiently processing electronic polymer solutions into thin films with specific properties remains a formidable challenge. We introduce Polybot, an artificial intelligence (AI) driven automated material laboratory designed to autonomously explore processing pathways for achieving high-conductivity, low-defect electronic polymers films. Leveraging importance-guided Bayesian optimization, Polybot efficiently navigates a complex 7-dimensional processing space. In particular, the automated workflow and algorithms effectively explore the search space, mitigate biases, employ statistical methods to ensure data repeatability, and concurrently optimize multiple objectives with precision. The experimental campaign yields scale-up fabrication recipes, producing transparent conductive thin films with averaged conductivity exceeding 4500 S/cm. Feature importance analysis and morphological characterizations reveal key design factors. This work signifies a significant step towards transforming the manufacturing of electronic polymers, highlighting the potential of AI-driven automation in material science.

Wang, Chengshi [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL),↗
DOE OSTI2026

Anticipating decoherence in quantum systems

Large-scale quantum technologies require coherence across distant nodes, necessitating indistinguishable quantum states. However, environmental disorder, including dephasing, spectral diffusion, and spin-bath interactions, undermines coherence. Using statistical methods, we uncover correlations in decoherence channels induced by slowly varying environments. Spectral diffusion serves as a representative demonstration case that can be extended to other remote, disordered systems such as spins in nitrogen-vacancy centers and quantum-dot spin qubits, as well as flux noise in superconducting qubits. In this work, we employ replica-theory-inspired trajectory analysis to reveal predictable temporal structures in decoherence dynamics, and validate these through an anticipatory systems framework with internal prediction of unseen spectral dynamics in multiple quantum systems, showing that this framework could, if implemented, reduce spectral shift by average factors of approximately 2 to 19, depending on emitter stability, thereby enabling enhanced coherence and multi-node synchronization for scalable quantum communication, computation, imaging, and sensing.

Maan, Pranshu [Purdue University]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian stability and force modeling for uncertain machining processes

Accurately simulating machining operations requires knowledge of the cutting force model and system frequency response. However, this data is collected using specialized instruments in an ex-situ manner. Bayesian statistical methods instead learn the system parameters using cutting test data, but to date, these approaches have only considered milling stability. This paper presents a physics-based Bayesian framework which incorporates both spindle power and milling stability. Initial probabilistic descriptions of the system parameters are propagated through a set of physics functions to form probabilistic predictions about the milling process. The system parameters are then updated using automatically selected cutting tests to reduce parameter uncertainty and identify more productive cutting conditions, where spindle power measurements are used to learn the cutting force model. The framework is demonstrated through both numerical and experimental case studies. Results show that the approach accurately identifies both the system natural frequency and cutting force model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Granger causal inference for climate change attribution

Abstract Climate change detection and attribution (D&A) is concerned with determining the extent to which anthropogenic activities have influenced specific aspects of the global climate system. D&A fits within the broader field of causal inference, the collection of statistical methods that identify cause and effect relationships. There are a wide variety of methods for making attribution statements, each of which require different types of input data and focus on different types of weather and climate events and each of which are conditional to varying extents. Some methods are based on Pearl causality (direct experimental interference) while others leverage Granger (predictive) causality, and the causal framing provides important context for how the resulting attribution conclusion should be interpreted. However, while Granger-causal attribution analyses have become more common, there is no clear statement of their strengths and weaknesses relative to Pearl-causal attribution and no clear consensus on where and when Granger-causal perspectives are appropriate. In this prospective paper, we provide a formal definition for Granger-based approaches to trend and event attribution and a clear comparison with more traditional methods for assessing the human influence on extreme weather and climate events. Broadly speaking, Granger-causal attribution statements can be constructed quickly from observations and do not require computationally-intesive dynamical experiments. These analyses also enable rapid attribution, which is useful in the aftermath of a severe weather event, and provide multiple lines of evidence for anthropogenic climate change when paired with Pearl-causal attribution. Confidence in attribution statements is increased when different methodologies arrive at similar conclusions. Moving forward, we encourage the D&A community to embrace hybrid approaches to climate change attribution that leverage the strengths of both Granger and Pearl causality.

Risser, Mark D. (ORCID:0000000319561783)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis and optimization of seismic monitoring networks with Bayesian optimal experimental design

SUMMARY Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network’s ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. This framework requires five elements: (i) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and traveltime data from the sensor network, (ii) A prior distribution that describes a priori belief about seismic events, (iii) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, (iv) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a data set of hypothetical prior events, (v) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster spin glass correlations and dynamics in Zn 0.5⁢ Mn 0.5⁢ Te

Here, we present a combined magnetometry, muon spin-relaxation (𝜇⁢SR), and neutron-scattering study of the insulating spin glass Zn 0.5 ⁢Mn 0.5 ⁢Te, for which magnetic Mn 2+ and nonmagnetic Zn 2+ ions are randomly distributed on a face-centered cubic lattice. The magnetometry and 𝜇⁢SR results confirm a spin freezing transition around 𝑇 𝑓 ≈ 23 K, with the spin-fluctuation rate decreasing gradually and somewhat inhomogeneously through the sample volume as the temperature decreases toward 𝑇 𝑓 . Characteristic spin-correlation times well above 𝑇 𝑓 are on the order of 10 −10 s, much slower than typically observed in canonical spin glasses but in line with expectations for a cluster spin glass. Using magnetic pair distribution function (mPDF) analysis and reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) modeling of the magnetic diffuse neutron-scattering data, we show that the spin-glass ground state consists of clusters of spins exhibiting short-range-ordered type-III antiferromagnetic correlations with a locally ordered moment of 3.1⁢(1)⁢𝜇 B between nearest-neighbor spins. The type-III correlations decay exponentially as a function of spin separation distance with a correlation length of approximately 5 Å. The diffuse magnetic scattering and corresponding mPDF show no significant changes across 𝑇 𝑓 , indicating that the dynamically fluctuating short-range spin correlations in the paramagnetic state retain the same basic type-III configuration that characterizes the spin-glass state; the only change apparent from the neutron-scattering data is a gradual reduction of the correlation length and locally ordered moment with increasing temperature. Taken together, these results paint a unique and detailed picture of the local magnetic structure and dynamics in Zn 0.5 ⁢Mn 0.5⁢ Te and provide strong evidence that this material is best described as a cluster spin glass. In addition, this work showcases a statistical method for extracting diffuse scattering signals from neutron powder diffraction data, which we developed to facilitate the mPDF and RMC analysis of the neutron data. This method has the potential to be broadly useful for neutron powder diffraction experiments on a variety of materials with short-range atomic or magnetic order.

magnetism↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coherency-Constrained Spectral Clustering for Power Network Reduction

This paper presents a methodology for reducing the complexity of large-scale power network models using spectral clustering, aggregation of electrical components, and cost function approximation. Two approaches are explored using unconstrained and constrained spectral clustering to determine areas for effective system reduction. Once the system areas are determined, both loads and generators by type are aggregated, and their new cost function is approximated through polynomial curve-fitting or statistical methods. The performance of reduced networks is evaluated in terms of their ability to follow the true daily cost of the original system over a 24-hour period considering a set of several days. Two test systems are taken as test beds. Application of the methodology to a modified version of the IEEE 39-bus system reduces it from 17 generators to a 4-bus system and 9 generators with about 93% of accuracy. Similarly, the IEEE 118-bus system is reduced from 19 generators to a 3-bus system with three aggregated units achieving over 99% of accuracy. These findings address scalability challenges and enhance accuracy for high and mid-loading level conditions, and by aggregating thermal units with similar cost functions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unraveling design principles of protein landscapes in photosynthetic membranes in plant chloroplasts

The supramolecular organization of proteins within photosynthetic membranes is crucial for energy conversion in plants. Here, we introduce an analytical and computational pipeline that integrates high-resolution cryo–scanning electron microscopy, biochemical quantification, advanced Monte Carlo computer simulations, and statistical methods to elucidate the elusive protein landscapes of grana membranes in intact Arabidopsis leaves. Our integrated analysis challenges the prevailing view that particles on the exoplasmic fracture faces in freeze-fracture samples represent photosystem II exclusively. Instead, these particles also include cytochrome b 6 f complexes. Furthermore, our steric clash analysis demonstrates that stacked membranes contain a mixture of larger PSII supercomplexes (C 2 S 2 M 2 and C 2 S 2 ) in addition to a smaller complex (C 2 ). This suggests that in vivo PSII supercomplexes exist in an equilibrium distribution of differing sizes. Furthermore, we discovered that, although size exclusion effects govern the global protein arrangement, local packing exhibits orientational order indicative of lateral attractive protein-protein interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Topological Signatures of Adversaries in Multimodal Alignments

Topological Data Analysis for Adversarial Detection (LANL O4937) - Detects adversarial examples in vision-language models using persistent homology and two-sample testing. Combines TDA features from CLIP embeddings with statistical methods (ME, SCF, SAMMD, C2ST) for robust detection across ImageNet, CIFAR-10/100.

Bhattarai, Manish↗
DOE OSTI2024

NovaDemux v39.07

This program is a sequence demultiplexer intended primarily for, but not limited to, Illumina sequencing machines. Typically, multiple experiments ("libraries") are pooled together and sequenced at once, with genetic molecules of these libraries tagged with a synthetic DNA "barcode". After sequencing, the data is demultiplexed into one file per library based on the barcode. However, errors in barcode reading cause misassignment and decrease yield. NovaDemux uses advanced statistical methods to maximize yield while minimizing misassignment compared to existing software.

Bushnell, Brian [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Agnostic Feature-Target Analysis & Ranking Machine Learning Pipeline (DAFTAR-ML) v0.1.0

DAFTAR-ML is a specialized machine-learning pipeline that identifies relevant features based on their relationship to a target variable. Many ML pipelines focus solely on prediction, and feature ranking is often absent or lacks robust statistical methods. DAFTAR-ML performs its tasks with this outcome in mind. Model training is robust, using nested cross-validation and hyperparameter tuning. Instead of relying on native feature-importance scores, it employs SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to quantify feature importance. The pipeline also produces comprehensive results, including publication-quality visualizations.

Melie, Tina [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of an Accelerometer-Based Structural Health Monitoring System for the LANL Blast Tube

A modeling- and simulation-based study was conducted on the feasibility of implementing an accelerometer-based SHM system on the Los Alamos National Laboratory blast tube. A blast tube experiment was modeled using the Abaqus explicit finite element solver. A custom user subroutine was written to apply test-like pressure loading to the inside surface of the blast tube. The subroutine applies analytically defined pressure loads derived from tracer output taken from a Compressible Flow Computational Fluid Dynamics Solver model of the blast tube. Five unique versions of the model were created: an undamaged reference model at 65°F was used as the baseline and compared to equivalent models at 10°F and 100°F. These three models were compared to models with small damage at the reference temperature. The two types of damage considered were a radial (circumferential) crack in the main tube body and a longitudinal crack in the supports. Acceleration outputs were extracted from accelerometer bodies included in the model and were post processed using a variety of standard SHM techniques. Different potential features signaling failure were extracted and compared using statistical methods in the time and frequency domains. A method was identified that clearly shows that differences in structural response resulting from the modeled damage can be differentiated from the structural response resulting from changing environmental conditions. However, the amount of damage applied to create observable differences in the accelerometer data was so large that simpler methods of damage detection would be more cost effective in locating damage.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Neutrino Simulation Modeling with MARLEY: Insights from the NNSA-MSIIP Internship

Core-collapse supernovae are intense sources of tens-of-MeV neutrinos. However, there is no experimental data to validate the current event generator MARLEY (Model of Argon Reaction Low Energy Yields) that can model supernova neutrinos. To validate the model, I developed a new muon capture feature within the MARLEY simulation framework by coding key functions in C++, Python, and ROOT. I generated and analyzed one million simulated muon capture events and comparing the results to experimental data. To improve the model, I worked on optimizing the model’s parameters to improve its precision using statistical methods.

Wong, Baker [Fermilab]↗
NASA NTRS1962

The Response of Ribbed Panels to Reverberant Acoustic Fields

A statistical method for estimating the response of ribbed panels to acoustic excitation is discussed. It is shown that the acceleration spectrum of the vibrational field is related to the pressure spectrum by a coupling factor which is a simple function of the radiation and mechanical resistance of the structure. The radiation resistance of a ribbed panel is studied as a function of frequency. The analysis predicts that ribbing increases the radiation resistance of the panel and hence its coupling to the acoustic field. The effect of various panel-rib boundary conditions is also considered. The results of experiments which were conducted to test the theory are reported. The agreement between theory and experiments is shown to be satisfactory.

BOUNDARY↗
NASA NTRS1965

Prediction analysis and management decisions.

Prediction analysis techniques /PAT/ using statistical methods, computers, error analysis, etc, for system weight, performance and other parameter predictions in Apollo program

PROGRAM MANAGEMENT↗
NASA NTRS1969

Estimation of signal-to-noise ratios

Statistical method estimates signal-to-noise ratios in an observed random voltage, such as the output of a telemetry receiver. Signals from a distant transmitting source, overlaid by noise signals, are monitored continuously.

Couvillon, L. A., Jr.↗