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At least 73 records · Page 4

The role of turbulent fluctuations in aerosol activation and cloud formation

Aerosol indirect effects are one of the leading contributors to cloud radiative properties relevant to climate. Aerosol particles become cloud droplets when the ambient relative humidity (saturation ratio) exceeds a critical value, which depends on the particle size and chemical composition. In the traditional formulation of this problem, only average, uniform saturation ratios are considered. Using experiments and theory, we examine the effects of fluctuations, produced by turbulence. Our measurements, from a multiphase, turbulent cloud chamber, show a clear transition from a regime in which the mean saturation ratio dominates to one in which the fluctuations determine cloud properties. The laboratory measurements demonstrate cloud formation in mean-subsaturated conditions (i.e., relative humidity <100%) in the fluctuation-dominant activation regime. The theoretical framework developed to interpret these measurements predicts a transition from a mean- to a fluctuation-dominated regime, based on the relative values of the mean and standard deviation of the environmental saturation ratio and the critical saturation ratio at which aerosol particles activate or become droplets. The theory is similar to the concept of stochastic condensation and can be used in the context of the atmosphere to explore the conditions under which droplet activation is driven by fluctuations as opposed to mean supersaturation. Overall, it provides a basis for future development of cloud droplet activation parameterizations that go beyond the internally homogeneous parcel calculations that have been used in the past.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The chaotic dynamics of comets and the problems of the Oort cloud

The dynamic properties of comets entering the planetary zone from the Oort cloud are discussed. Even a very slight influence of the large planets can trigger stochastic cometary dynamics. Multiple interactions of comets with the large planets produce diffusion of the parameters of cometary orbits and a mean increase in the semi-major axis of comets. Comets are lifted towards the Oort cloud, where collisions with stars begin to play a substantial role. The transport of comets differs greatly from the customary law of diffusion and noticeably alter cometary distribution.

Sagdeev, Roald Z.↗

Exploring ship track spreading rates with a physics-informed Langevin particle parameterization

Abstract. The rate at which aerosols spread from a point source injection, such as from a ship or other stationary pollution source, is critical for accurately representing subgrid plume spreading in a climate model. Such climate model results will guide future decisions regarding the feasibility and application of large-scale intentional marine cloud brightening (MCB). Prior modeling studies have shown that the rate at which ship plumes spread may be strongly dependent on meteorological conditions, such as precipitating versus non-precipitating boundary layers and shear. In this study, we apply a Lagrangian particle model (PM-ABL v1.0), governed by a Langevin stochastic differential equation, to create a simplified framework for predicting the rate of spreading from a ship-injected aerosol plume in sheared, precipitating, and non-precipitating boundary layers. The velocity and position of each stochastic particle is predicted with the acceleration of each particle being driven by the turbulent kinetic energy, dissipation rate, momentum variance, and mean wind. These inputs to the stochastic particle velocity equation are derived from high-fidelity large-eddy simulations (LES) equipped with a prognostic aerosol–cloud microphysics scheme (UW-SAM) to simulate an aerosol injection from a ship into a cloud-topped marine boundary layer. The resulting spreading rate from the reduced-order stochastic model is then compared to the spreading rate in the LES. The stochastic particle velocity representation is shown to reasonably reproduce spreading rates in sheared, precipitating, and non-precipitating cases using domain-averaged turbulent statistics from the LES.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synchrotron CT imaging of lattice structures with engineered defects

Understanding mechanical failure, crack propagation, and compressive behavior at the micrometer scale is essential for tailoring material properties for structural performance in cellular materials. Typically, modeling of traditional polymer foam materials is clouded by the lack of control in material morphology and its inherent stochastic structure. Additive manufacturing with sub-micrometer resolution provides a direct path for experimenters to specifically tailor structures needed by modelers to explicitly probe mechanical performance. Using laboratory-based 3D X-ray computed tomographic imaging (CT), the examination of deformation and damage provides a critical path to understand how these soft materials behave. Additionally, synchrotron CT yields realistic information at higher strain rates to directly validate the robustness of our finite element modeling. For this study, nanolithographic printing was employed to generate a series of engineered lattices with increasing levels of defects through the random removal of ligaments. These structures were mechanically tested and imaged with laboratory-based microCT. Additionally, synchrotron experiments were conducted in which the structures were imaged in 3D at 14 Hz during compression at a 0.4 s –1 strain rate. These 3D images show the changes in the structure as the ligaments bend, buckle and fracture in real time. This technique provides a robust framework for developing our methodologies and future exploration of engineered structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modulating terrestrial impacts from Oort cloud comets by the adiabatically changing galactic tides

Time modulation of the flux of new Jupiter-dominated Oort cloud comets is the subject of interest here. The major perturbation of these comets during the present epoch is due to the tidal field of the relatively smooth distribution of matter in the galactic disk. A secondary source of the near-parabolic comet flux are stars penetrating the inner Oort cloud and providing impulses that create brief comet showers. Substantial stellar-induced showers occur approximately every 100 m.y. Less frequent (but stronger) impulses due to giant molecular clouds can also perturb comets from the inner cloud. These occur on timescales of approximately equal to 500 m.y. In contrast to these infrequent stochastic shower phenomena is the continuously varying tidal-induced flux due to the galaxy. As the Sun orbits the galactic center it undergoes quasiharmonic motion about the galactic midplane, which is superimposed on the small eccentricity, near-Keplerian motion in the plane having epicycle period approximately equal to 150 m.y. In the process the galactic tidal field on the Sun/cloud system will vary causing a modulation of the observable Oort cloud flux. We have created a model of the galactic matter distribution as it affects the solar motion over a time interval ranging from 300 m.y. in the past to 100 m.y. into the future. As constraints on the disk's compact dark matter component we require consistency with the following: (1) the observed galactic rotation curve, (2) today's flux distribution of new comets, (3) the studies of K-giant distributions, and (4) the periodicity found in the terrestrial cratering record. The adiabatically varying galactic tidal torque is then determined and used to predict the time dependence of the flux. We find that a model in which approximately half the disk matter is compact is consistent with these constraints. Under such circumstances the peak-to-trough flux variation will be approx. equal to 5:1 with a full width of 9 m.y. This variability will manifest in the terrestrial cratering record and is consistent with the observed cratering periodicity, if over half of the impacts on Earth are caused by comets or asteroids that originate in the outer Oort cloud.

Matese, J. J.↗

Continuous Lidar Monitoring of Polar Stratospheric Clouds at the South Pole

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) play a primary role in the formation of annual ozone holes over Antarctica during the austral sunrise. Meridional temperature gradients in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, caused by strong radiative cooling, induce a broad dynamic vortex centered near the South Pole that decouples and insulates the winter polar airmass. PSC nucleate and grow as vortex temperatures gradually fall below equilibrium saturation and frost points for ambient sulfate, nitrate, and water vapor concentrations (generally below 197 K). Cloud surfaces promote heterogeneous reactions that convert stable chlorine and bromine-based molecules into photochemically active ones. As spring nears, and the sun reappears and rises, photolysis decomposes these partitioned compounds into individual halogen atoms that react with and catalytically destroy thousands of ozone molecules before they are stochastically neutralized. Despite a generic understanding of the ozone hole paradigm, many key components of the system, such as cloud occurrence, phase, and composition; particle growth mechanisms; and denitrification of the lower stratosphere have yet to be fully resolved. Satellite-based observations have dramatically improved the ability to detect PSC and quantify seasonal polar chemical partitioning. However, coverage directly over the Antarctic plateau is limited by polar-orbiting tracks that rarely exceed 80 degrees S. In December 1999, a NASA Micropulse Lidar Network instrument (MPLNET) was first deployed to the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL) Atmospheric Research Observatory at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station for continuous cloud and aerosol profiling. MPLNET instruments are eye-safe, capable of full-time autonomous operation, and suitably rugged and compact to withstand long-term remote deployment. With only brief interruptions during the winters of 2001 and 2002, a nearly continuous data archive exists to the present.

OZONE DESTRUCTION↗

Cloud field classification based on textural features

An essential component in global climate research is accurate cloud cover and type determination. Of the two approaches to texture-based classification (statistical and textural), only the former is effective in the classification of natural scenes such as land, ocean, and atmosphere. In the statistical approach that was adopted, parameters characterizing the stochastic properties of the spatial distribution of grey levels in an image are estimated and then used as features for cloud classification. Two types of textural measures were used. One is based on the distribution of the grey level difference vector (GLDV), and the other on a set of textural features derived from the MaxMin cooccurrence matrix (MMCM). The GLDV method looks at the difference D of grey levels at pixels separated by a horizontal distance d and computes several statistics based on this distribution. These are then used as features in subsequent classification. The MaxMin tectural features on the other hand are based on the MMCM, a matrix whose (I,J)th entry give the relative frequency of occurrences of the grey level pair (I,J) that are consecutive and thresholded local extremes separated by a given pixel distance d. Textural measures are then computed based on this matrix in much the same manner as is done in texture computation using the grey level cooccurrence matrix. The database consists of 37 cloud field scenes from LANDSAT imagery using a near IR visible channel. The classification algorithm used is the well known Stepwise Discriminant Analysis. The overall accuracy was estimated by the percentage or correct classifications in each case. It turns out that both types of classifiers, at their best combination of features, and at any given spatial resolution give approximately the same classification accuracy. A neural network based classifier with a feed forward architecture and a back propagation training algorithm is used to increase the classification accuracy, using these two classes of features. Preliminary results based on the GLDV textural features alone look promising.

Sengupta, Sailes Kumar↗

Gas-rich dwarf galaxies in dense and sparse environments

Dwarf irregular galaxies (generically labelled Im for the present purposes) pose an enigma to students of galaxy evolution. In nearby groups and the Virgo cluster, Im galaxies are at least as abundant as spiral galaxies, and their low surface brightnesses and high gas-to-stars ratios suggest that (at least in the stochastic self-propagating star formation scenario) there should be significant numbers of HI clouds with masses approaching 10(exp 8) solar mass which have undergone very little or no star formation. To date, however, no clouds with so little star formation that they would not be recognized as Im galaxies on high-quality photographic plates have been identified. There have been suggestions that such dwarfs may be tidally disrupted in regions of high galactic density, but may be prevalent in low density regions. We offer data from three parallel programs relevant to this issue. (1) A large number of Im galaxies throughout the Local Supercluster have been mapped in the HI spectral line using the Arecibo Radiotelescope, and we can establish the frequency with which HI disks much more extended than their optically visible portions are found. (2) Our extensive mapping of spiral and dwarf galaxies in the Virgo cluster allows us to set stringent limits on the density of star-free Hi clouds in that cluster. (3) We have conducted a sampling of the void in the distribution of galaxies toward the super galactic pole, optimized for finding low-mass HI clouds at redshifts out to approximately 2000 km/s.

Hoffman, G. Lyle↗

SoDa: An Irradiance-Based Synthetic Solar Data Generation Tool (SoDa) v0.1

SoDa is an irradiance-based synthetic Solar Data generation tool to generate realistic sub-minute solar photovoltaic (PV) power time series, that emulate the weather pattern for a certain geographical location. Our tool relies on the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to obtain irradiance and weather data patterns for the site. Irradiance is mapped onto a PV model estimate of a solar plant's 30-min power output, based on the configuration of the panel. We use a stochastic model with a switching behavior due to different weather regimes as provided by the cloud type label in the NSRDB, with parameters for the cloudy states trained on the high-resolution solar power measurements from a Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU).

Carreno, IgnacioLosada↗

Stochastic evolution of refractory interstellar dust during the chemical evolution of a two-phase interstellar medium

The evolution course of refractoary interstellar dust during the chemical evolution of a two-phase interstellar medium (ISM) is studied using a simple model of the chemical evolution of ISM. It is assumed that, in this medium, the stars are born in molecular clouds, but new nucleosynthesis products and stellar return are entered into a complementary diffuse medium; the well-mixed matter of each interstellar phase is repeatedly cycled stochastically through the complementary phase and back. The dust is studied on a particle-by-particle bases as it is sputtered by shock waves in the diffuse medium, accretes an amorphous mantle of gaseous refractory atoms while its local medium joins the molecular cloud medium, and encounters the possibility of astration within molecular clouds. Results are presented relevant to the size spectrum of accreted mantles, its age spectrum and the distinction among its several lifetimes, depletion factors of refractory atoms in the diffuse gas, and isotopic anomalies.

Liffman, Kurt↗

Elastic distributed training with fast convergence and efficient resource utilization

Distributed learning is now routinely conducted on cloud as well as dedicated clusters. Training with elastic resources brings new challenges and design choices. Prior studies focus on runtime performance and assume a static algorithmic behavior. In this work, by analyzing the impact of of resource scaling on convergence, we introduce schedules for synchronous stochastic gradient descent that proactively adapt the number of learners to reduce training time and improve convergence. Our approach no longer assumes a constant number of processors throughout training. In our experiment, distributed stochastic gradient descent with dynamic schedules and reduction momentum achieves better convergence and significant speedups over prior static ones. Numerous distributed training jobs running on cloud may benefit from our approach.

Cong, Guojing↗

Stochastic nucleation processes and substrate abundance explain time-dependent freezing in supercooled droplets

Atmospheric immersion freezing (IF), a heterogeneous ice nucleation process where an ice nucleating particle (INP) is immersed in supercooled water, is a dominant ice formation pathway impacting the hydrological cycle and climate. Implementation of IF derived from field and laboratory data in cloud and climate models is difficult due to the high variability in spatio-temporal scales, INP composition, and morphological complexity. We demonstrate that IF can be consistently described by a stochastic nucleation process accounting for uncertainties in the INP surface area. This approach accounts for time-dependent freezing, a wide range of surface areas and challenges phenomenological descriptions typically used to interpret IF. The results have an immediate impact on the current description, interpretation, and experiments of IF and its implementation in models. The findings are in accord with nucleation theory, and thus should hold for any supercooled liquid material that nucleates in contact with a substrate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Suppressing Excessive Light Rain on Aerosol Radiative Effects and Health Risks

Global climate models (GCMs) have been used widely to study radiative forcing and health risks of aerosols. A recent study using two GCMs found that light rain plays a dominant role in controlling aerosol loading. However, “too much light rain and too little heavy rain” is a longstanding bias in GCMs. It is unclear how much light rain affects aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and health risks from air pollution. Here, in this work, we show that, with the correction of the rainfall intensity spectrum in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 by introducing a stochastic deep convection scheme, the reduced frequency of light rain (1–20 mm d -1 ) results in changes of aerosol direct radiative effects (DRE) of up to -0.5 ± 0.03 W/m 2 and aerosol cloud radiative effects (CRE) of up to -0.9 ± 0.03 W/m 2 . The total (CRE + DRE) radiative effects of light rain-mediated aerosol changes exceed the present-day anthropogenic forcing of aerosols relative to preindustrial levels from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5&6) models. However, the correction of the rainfall intensity spectrum has little effect on anthropogenic aerosol forcing (defined as the radiative perturbation due to changes in aerosol concentrations between the industrial era and preindustrial levels). Due to increased exposure to fine particulates (PM 2.5 ), the estimated global total premature mortality is much higher than previously estimated, by 300,000 ± 60,000 deaths per year, and is more severe in populous regions such as India and China. The findings in this study highlight the need to understand uncertainties in radiative effects and health risks of aerosols due to simulation biases of precipitation in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic does not equal ad hoc

Some classes of influential events in solar system history are class-predictable but not event-predictable. Theories of lunar origin should not ignore class-predictable stochastic events. Impacts and close encounters with large objects during planet formation are class-predictable. These stochastic events, such as large impacts that triggered ejection of Earth-mantle material into a circum-Earth cloud, should not be rejected as ad hoc. A way to deal with such events scientifically is to investigate their consequences; if it can be shown that they might produce the Moon, they become viable concepts in theories of lunar origin.

Hartmann, W. K.↗

UV, optical and infrared properties of star forming galaxies

The UVOIR properties of galaxies with extreme star formation rates are examined. These objects seem to fall into three distinct classes which can be called (1) extragalactic H II regions, (2) clumpy irregulars, and (3) starburst galaxies. Extragalactic H II regions are dominated by recently formed stars and may be considered 'young' galaxies if the definition of young is having the majority of total integrated star formation occurring in the last billion years. Clumpy irregulars are bursts of star formation superposed on an old population and are probably good examples of stochastic star formation. It is possible that star formation in these galaxies is triggered by the infall of gas clouds or dwarf companions. Starburst galaxies are much more luminous, dustier and more metal rich than the other classes. These objects show evidence for shock induced star formation where shocks may be caused by interaction with massive companions or are the result of an extremely strong density wave.

Huchra, John P.↗

IRAS observations of dust heating and energy balance in the Rho Ophiuchi dark cloud

The equilibrium process dust emission in the Rho Ophiuchi dark cloud is studied. The luminosity of the cloud is found to closely match the luminosity of the clouds's known embedded and external radiation sources. There is no evidence for a large population of undetected low-luminosity sources within the cloud and unknown external heating is also only a minor source of energy. Most of the cloud's luminosity is emitted in the mid-to-far-IR. Dust temperature maps indicate that the dust is not hot enough to heat the gas to observed temperatures. A simple cloud model with a radiation field composed of flux HD 147889, S1, and Sco OB2 associations predicts the observed IRAS 60 to 100 micron in-band flux ratios for a mean cloud density n(H2) = 1400. Flattened 12 and 25 micron observations show much extended emission in these bands, suggesting stochastic heating of very small grains or large molecules.

Greene, Thomas P.↗

Computer simulation of dust grain evolution

The latest results are reported from a Monte Carlo code that is being developed at NASA Ames. The goal of this program, is to derive from the observed and presumed properties of the interstellar medium (ISM) the following information: (1) the size spectrum of interstellar dust; (2) the chemical structure of interstellar dust; (3) interstellar abundances; and (4) the lifetime of a dust grain in the ISM. Presently this study is restricted to refractory interstellar material, i.e., the formation and destruction of ices are not included in the program. The program is embedded in an analytic solution for the bulk chemical evolution of a two-phase interstellar medium in which stars are born in molecular clouds, but new nucleosynthesis products and stellar return are entered into a complementary intercloud medium. The well-mixed matter of each interstellar phase is repeatedly cycled stochastically through the complementary phase and back. Refractory dust is created by thermal condensation as stellar matter flows away from sites of nucleosynthesis such as novae and supernovae and/or from the matter returned from evolved intermediate stars. The history of each particle is traced by standard Monte Carlo techniques as it is sputtered and fragmented by supernova shock waves in the intercloud medium. It also accretes an amorphous mantle of gaseous refractory atoms when its local medium joins with the molecular cloud medium. Finally it encounters the possibility of astration (destruction by star formation) within the molecular clouds.

Liffman, K.↗