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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Production of neutron-rich isotopes for 𝑍 ≥ 98 in the 238 U + 248 Cm reaction

Multinucleon transfer (MNT) reactions in actinide systems are a promising method to synthesize transuranium neutron-rich elements. Appropriate theoretical approaches are needed to understand the mechanisms behind MNT. We employ a microscopic approach to calculate neutron-rich isotope production in the reaction 238 U + 248 Cm system. Here, the stochastic mean-field (SMF) approach is used to calculate the primary cross sections in MNT reactions based on the quasifission and inverse quasifission processes, and a statistical de-excitation model with GEMINI ++ code to calculate the secondary fragment cross sections. The calculated cross sections using SMF and GEMINI ++ explain available experimental results for the 238 U + 248 Cm system at 𝐸 c.m. = 898.7 MeV energy. This shows the effectiveness and applicability of the quantal diffusion approach, based on the SMF theory, in heavy-ion collisions. Production of transuranium neutron-rich elements with a proton number up to 𝑍=101 is obtained with sizable cross sections. Theoretical results calculated for the 𝑍=102–105 region, for which there are no experimental data, show that the cross-section values would be lower than the microbarn level. SMF theory does not contain any adjustable parameters other than the standard parameters of the energy density functional used in the TDHF theory and is an important approach for the microscopic understanding of reaction mechanisms.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1984

Data and results of a laboratory investigation of microprocessor upset caused by simulated lightning-induced analog transients

A methodology was developed a assess the upset susceptibility/reliability of a computer system onboard an aircraft flying through a lightning environment. Upset error modes in a general purpose microprocessor were studied. The upset tests involved the random input of analog transients which model lightning induced signals onto interface lines of an 8080 based microcomputer from which upset error data was recorded. The program code on the microprocessor during tests is designed to exercise all of the machine cycles and memory addressing techniques implemented in the 8080 central processing unit. A statistical analysis is presented in which possible correlations are established between the probability of upset occurrence and transient signal inputs during specific processing states and operations. A stochastic upset susceptibility model for the 8080 microprocessor is presented. The susceptibility of this microprocessor to upset, once analog transients have entered the system, is determined analytically by calculating the state probabilities of the stochastic model.

Belcastro, C. M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generalized master equation for particle transport in binary random media with renewal statistics

Particle transport in binary stochastic mixtures is classically modeled assuming Markovian or exponential mixing statistics but in many applications material memory invalidates the Markov assumption. For non-Markovian mixing characterized by alternating renewal processes, a transport-theoretic framework is presented that provides an exact description of transport in nonscattering random binary media with general non-exponential statistics. Our approach is to Markovianize the problem by augmenting the {material type, particle flux} state space with the age or distance from the last interface. A Chapman-Kolmogorov equation is formulated for the joint probability density of the material type, particle flux, and age, and subsequently reduced to a generalized Master equation (GME) in differential form. This constitutes the primary result of this work. A state-updating Monte Carlo algorithm consistent with the GME is developed and benchmarked against analytical solutions for multiple chord-length laws. For purely absorbing renewal statistical media, the GME reproduces analytical benchmarks for the equilibrium age distribution, interior mean/variance of material-conditioned fluxes, and boundary transmittance. Simulations further demonstrate that a Markov (exponential) approximation of non-exponential statistics can introduce large errors in transmittance and interior flux profiles. Lastly, the reintroduction of memory due to scattering is briefly addressed through heuristic considerations.

Fluctuations & noise↗
NASA NTRS1999

Dynamical Signatures of Living Systems

One of the main challenges in modeling living systems is to distinguish a random walk of physical origin (for instance, Brownian motions) from those of biological origin and that will constitute the starting point of the proposed approach. As conjectured, the biological random walk must be nonlinear. Indeed, any stochastic Markov process can be described by linear Fokker-Planck equation (or its discretized version), only that type of process has been observed in the inanimate world. However, all such processes always converge to a stable (ergodic or periodic) state, i.e., to the states of a lower complexity and high entropy. At the same time, the evolution of living systems directed toward a higher level of complexity if complexity is associated with a number of structural variations. The simplest way to mimic such a tendency is to incorporate a nonlinearity into the random walk; then the probability evolution will attain the features of diffusion equation: the formation and dissipation of shock waves initiated by small shallow wave disturbances. As a result, the evolution never "dies:" it produces new different configurations which are accompanied by an increase or decrease of entropy (the decrease takes place during formation of shock waves, the increase-during their dissipation). In other words, the evolution can be directed "against the second law of thermodynamics" by forming patterns outside of equilibrium in the probability space. Due to that, a specie is not locked up in a certain pattern of behavior: it still can perform a variety of motions, and only the statistics of these motions is constrained by this pattern. It should be emphasized that such a "twist" is based upon the concept of reflection, i.e., the existence of the self-image (adopted from psychology). The model consists of a generator of stochastic processes which represents the motor dynamics in the form of nonlinear random walks, and a simulator of the nonlinear version of the diffusion equation which represents the mental dynamics. It has been demonstrated that coupled mental-motor dynamics can simulate emerging self-organization, prey-predator games, collaboration and competition, "collective brain," etc.

Zak, M.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Nonparametric algorithms for the search of signals

Two algorithms for the search of signals in noise are constructed. Two independent measurable properties of a discreet time-dependent stochastic process F are described. The functions A sub K and B sub K fully satisfy conditions for the application of a test based on Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. A statistic to which the one-sided signal test can be applied is constructed under sufficiently natural assumptions about the noise process. The constructed statistics are simplified. Processing results from calculations of statistics constructed for concrete processes are presented.

Myshenkova, T. S.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Detection of chaotic determinism in time series from randomly forced maps

Time series from biological system often display fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". Despite this effort, it has been difficult to establish the presence of chaos in time series from biological sytems. The output from a biological system is probably the result of both its internal dynamics, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes, i.e., a positive characteristic exponent that leads to sensitivity to initial conditions. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolution of intermittent filaments in the scrape-off layer of NSTX

Filamentary structures naturally arise from background turbulence in the scrape-off layer (SOL) of plasmas, leading to significant particle and heat transport that can degrade overall plasma confinement. This enhanced transport can contribute to unacceptably high heat loads on plasma-facing components. As such, understanding the physics of SOL plasma filaments is critical for predicting and mitigating their effects in future fusion devices. On the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX), plasma filaments—commonly referred to as “blobs”—were investigated using the gas-puff imaging (GPI) diagnostic in the edge and SOL regions. The analysis involved identifying, segmenting, and tracking the characteristic contours of the blobs in each frame of the GPI video sequences. Their evolution was characterized through shape descriptors, velocity, and angular velocity derived from their contour coordinates. The results indicate that as the blob area increases, their shapes become more concave and less circular, suggesting reduced structural stability in larger blobs. This result aligns with previous theoretical results where it was shown that larger blobs are more susceptible to instabilities [Krasheninnikov et al., J. Plasma Phys. 74, 679–717 (2008) and D'Ippolito et al., Phys. Plasmas 18, 060501 (2011)]. A positive correlation was observed between radial velocity and radial position, suggesting radially outward acceleration of the filaments, potentially driven by decreasing viscous drag toward the far SOL. Interestingly, blobs in background SOL turbulence exhibited minimal spinning in contrast to filaments originating from edge localized modes, which show substantial rotation during their paths [Lampert et al., Phys. Plasmas 29, 102502 (2022)]. Statistical analysis of the solidity and total curvature shape descriptors, along with their temporal evolution, revealed relatively broad, near-Gaussian distributions. This suggests that blob morphology is strongly influenced by stochastic turbulent processes in the surrounding plasma environment. Blob parameters were also compared with bulk plasma and radial profile measurements. Notable trends were found between blob rotation and poloidal velocity with collisionality and line-integrated density. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of blob dynamics and provide valuable insights for refining SOL turbulence models.

Covariance and correlation↗
NASA NTRS1994

Statistical mechanics in biology: how ubiquitous are long-range correlations?

The purpose of this opening talk is to describe examples of recent progress in applying statistical mechanics to biological systems. We first briefly review several biological systems, and then focus on the fractal features characterized by the long-range correlations found recently in DNA sequences containing non-coding material. We discuss the evidence supporting the finding that for sequences containing only coding regions, there are no long-range correlations. We also discuss the recent finding that the exponent alpha characterizing the long-range correlations increases with evolution, and we discuss two related models, the insertion model and the insertion-deletion model, that may account for the presence of long-range correlations. Finally, we summarize the analysis of long-term data on human heartbeats (up to 10(4) heart beats) that supports the possibility that the successive increments in the cardiac beat-to-beat intervals of healthy subjects display scale-invariant, long-range "anti-correlations" (a tendency to beat faster is balanced by a tendency to beat slower later on). In contrast, for a group of subjects with severe heart disease, long-range correlations vanish. This finding suggests that the classical theory of homeostasis, according to which stable physiological processes seek to maintain "constancy," should be extended to account for this type of dynamical, far from equilibrium, behavior.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2000

Applications of Fractal Analytical Techniques in the Estimation of Operational Scale

The observational scale and the resolution of remotely sensed imagery are essential considerations in the interpretation process. Many atmospheric, hydrologic, and other natural and human-influenced spatial phenomena are inherently scale dependent and are governed by different physical processes at different spatial domains. This spatial and operational heterogeneity constrains the ability to compare interpretations of phenomena and processes observed in higher spatial resolution imagery to similar interpretations obtained from lower resolution imagery. This is a particularly acute problem, since longterm global change investigations will require high spatial resolution Earth Observing System (EOS), Landsat 7, or commercial satellite data to be combined with lower resolution imagery from older sensors such as Landsat TM and MSS. Fractal analysis is a useful technique for identifying the effects of scale changes on remotely sensed imagery. The fractal dimension of an image is a non-integer value between two and three which indicates the degree of complexity in the texture and shapes depicted in the image. A true fractal surface exhibits self-similarity, a property of curves or surfaces where each part is indistinguishable from the whole, or where the form of the curve or surface is invariant with respect to scale. Theoretically, if the digital numbers of a remotely sensed image resemble an ideal fractal surface, then due to the self-similarity property, the fractal dimension of the image will not vary with scale and resolution, and the slope of the fractal dimension-resolution relationship would be zero. Most geographical phenomena, however, are not self-similar at all scales, but they can be modeled by a stochastic fractal in which the scaling properties of the image exhibit patterns that can be described by statistics such as area-perimeter ratios and autocovariances. Stochastic fractal sets relax the self-similarity assumption and measure many scales and resolutions to represent the varying form of a phenomenon as the pixel size is increased in a convolution process. We have observed that for images of homogeneous land covers, the fractal dimension varies linearly with changes in resolution or pixel size over the range of past, current, and planned space-borne sensors. This relationship differs significantly in images of agricultural, urban, and forest land covers, with urban areas retaining the same level of complexity, forested areas growing smoother, and agricultural areas growing more complex as small pixels are aggregated into larger, mixed pixels. Images of scenes having a mixture of land covers have fractal dimensions that exhibit a non-linear, complex relationship to pixel size. Measuring the fractal dimension of a difference image derived from two images of the same area obtained on different dates showed that the fractal dimension increased steadily, then exhibited a sharp decrease at increasing levels of pixel aggregation. This breakpoint of the fractal dimension/resolution plot is related to the spatial domain or operational scale of the phenomenon exhibiting the predominant visible difference between the two images (in this case, mountain snow cover). The degree to which an image departs from a theoretical ideal fractal surface provides clues as to how much information is altered or lost in the processes of rescaling and rectification. The measured fractal dimension of complex, composite land covers such as urban areas also provides a useful textural index that can assist image classification of complex scenes.

Emerson, Charles W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Stochastic Growth of Ion Cyclotron And Mirror Waves In Earth's Magnetosheath

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron and mirror waves in Earth's magnetosheath are bursty, have widely variable fields, and are unexpectedly persistent, properties difficult to reconcile with uniform secular growth. Here it is shown for specific periods that stochastic growth theory (SGT) quantitatively accounts for the functional form of the wave statistics and qualitatively explains the wave properties. The wave statistics are inconsistent with uniform secular growth or self-organized criticality, but nonlinear processes sometimes play a role at high fields. The results show SGT's relevance near marginal stability and suggest that it is widely relevant to space and astrophysical plasmas.

Cairns, Iver H.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Toward the modeling of land use change: A spatial analysis using remote sensing and historical data

It was hypothesized that the chronological observation of land use change could be shown to follow a predictable pattern and these patterns could be correlated with other statistical data to develop transition probabilities suitable for modeling purposes. A literature review and preliminary research, however, indicated a totally stochastic approach was not practical for simulating land use change and thus a more deterministic approach was adopted. The approach used assumes the determinants of the land use conversion process are found in the market place, where land transactions among buyers and sellers occur. Only one side of the market transaction process is studied, however, namely, the purchaser's desires in securing an ideal or suitable site. The problem was to identify the ideal qualities, quantities or attributes desired in an industrial site (or housing development), and to formulate a general algorithmic statement capable of identifying potential development sites. Research procedures involved developing a list of variables previously noted in the literature to be related to site selection and streamlining the list to a set suitable for statistical testing. A sample of 157 industries which have located (or relocated) in the 16-county Knoxville metropolitan region since 1950 was selected for industrial location analysis. Using NASA color infrared photography and Tennessee Valley Authority historical aerial photography, data were collected on the spatial characteristics of each industrial location event. These data were then subjected to factor analysis to determine the interrelations of variables.

Honea, R. B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid chemical characterization of latent images in EUV resist with 12 nm half-pitch features

With the advancement of high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, the new platform will enable chipmakers to achieve critical dimensions of 8 nm. However, resist materials face significant challenges in delivering increased sensitivity while managing rising stochastic variations. We aim to develop comprehensive techniques to characterize the chemical profile of latent images, stored in EUV resists after exposure and postexposure baking, which is essential for understanding the origin of stochastic effects. Infrared photo-induced force microscopy (IR PiFM) is a bimodal atomic force microscopy technique combined with an infrared light source, allowing for simultaneous sub-5 nm topographic and chemical characterization within a localized environment. Critical-dimension resonant soft X-ray scatterometry (CD-RSoXS) provides statistical data that reveal structural and chemical information for comparative analysis. For the first time, IR PiFM has been used to chemically map the latent images of EUV resists (after exposure and postexposure baking) at a record high resolution of 12 nm half-pitch, enabling nondestructive analysis of patterns prior to development. Furthermore, CD-RSoXS offers direct experimental observation and comparison of exposed, postexposure baked, and developed patterns, which align with the IR PiFM results. We demonstrate that the IR PiFM technique offers valuable insights into both high spatial resolution and local chemical information simultaneously. In addition, CD-RSoXS provides statistical results that support our main findings. This hybrid metrology approach leverages a multifaceted dataset by combining the most reliable information from each source, which is essential for a comprehensive understanding of the stochastic effects in EUV lithography processes.

O’Reilly, Padraic↗
NASA NTRS1981

The stochastic evolution of asteroidal regoliths and the origin of brecciated and gas-rich meteorites

A model is constructed which views regolith evolution on asteroids as a stochastic process. Average values are shown to be poor descriptors of regolith depth. The utility of the average depth is not significantly increased by avoiding large craters or thick ejecta deposits, a procedure adopted in previous regolith studies. The statistical uncertainty associated with regolith depth severely limits the power of regolith models in predicting parent-body size for brecciated meteorites. A Monte Carlo algorithm was used to simulate the random walks and corresponding charged-particle irradiation histories of grains in regoliths. On rocky asteroids, only about 20 percent of the grains was exposed to solar cosmic ray ions. Results based on present-day conditions in the asteroid belt agree well with irradiation features observed in gas-rich meteorites. An origin during epochs of early solar system evolution is not required.

Housen, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Statistics and thermodynamics of fracture

A probabilistic model of the fracture processes unifying the phenomenological study of long term strength of materials, fracture mechanics and statistical approaches to fracture is briefly outlined. The general framework of irreversible thermodynamics is employed to model the deterministic side of the failure phenomenon. The stochastic calculus is used to account for thg failure mechanisms controlled by chance; particularly, the random roughness of fracture surfaces.

Chudnovsky, A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Numerical experiments with model monophyletic and paraphyletic taxa

The problem of how accurately paraphyletic taxa versus monophyletic (i.e., holophyletic) groups (clades) capture underlying species patterns of diversity and extinction is explored with Monte Carlo simulations. Phylogenies are modeled as stochastic trees. Paraphyletic taxa are defined in an arbitrary manner by randomly choosing progenitors and clustering all descendants not belonging to other taxa. These taxa are then examined to determine which are clades, and the remaining paraphyletic groups are dissected to discover monophyletic subgroups. Comparisons of diversity patterns and extinction rates between modeled taxa and lineages indicate that paraphyletic groups can adequately capture lineage information under a variety of conditions of diversification and mass extinction. This suggests that these groups constitute more than mere "taxonomic noise" in this context. But, strictly monophyletic groups perform somewhat better, especially with regard to mass extinctions. However, when low levels of paleontologic sampling are simulated, the veracity of clades deteriorates, especially with respect to diversity, and modeled paraphyletic taxa often capture more information about underlying lineages. Thus, for studies of diversity and taxic evolution in the fossil record, traditional paleontologic genera and families need not be rejected in favor of cladistically-defined taxa.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1994

Limits to randomness in paleobiologic models: the case of Phanerozoic species diversity

The question of how random, or unconstrained, paleobiologic models should be is examined with a case study: Signor's (1982, 1985) inverse calculation of levels of marine species diversity through the Phanerozoic. His calculation involved an ingenious model that estimated species numbers and species abundances in the world oceans of the past by correcting known numbers of fossil species for variations in sedimentary rocks available for sampling and in effort paleontologists might devote to sampling. The model proves robust to changes in possible shapes of species-abundance distributions, but it is sensitive to alterations in the assumption that paleontologists collect fossils at random. If it is assumed that ease of collecting varies with age of sediment (with the Cenozoic offering easy sampling) or that paleontologists tend to seek out rarer fossils, results of the inverse calculation change. In particular, the magnitude of the calculated Cenozoic diversity increase always declines from the factor of about seven as originally reported to something considerably smaller. This leaves open the problem of the magnitude of Cenozoic increase in marine species diversity, awaiting better empirical data and, perhaps, more exacting models, random or otherwise.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1996

Possible effects of protracted exposure on the additivity of risks from space radiations

Conventional radiation risk assessments are presently based on the additivity assumption. This assumption states that risks from individual components of a complex radiation field involving many different types of radiation can be added to yield the total risk of the complex radiation field. If the assumption is not correct, the summations and integrations performed to obtain the presently quoted risk estimates are not appropriate. This problem is particularly important in the area of space radiation risk evaluation because of the many different types of high- and low-LET radiation present in the galactic cosmic ray environment. For both low- and high-LET radiations at low enough dose rates, the present convention is that the addivity assumption holds. Mathematically, the total risk, Rtot is assumed to be Rtot = summation (i) Ri where the summation runs over the different types of radiation present. If the total dose (or fluence) from each component is such that the interaction between biological lesions caused by separate single track traversals is negligible within a given cell, it is presently considered to be reasonable to accept the additivity assumption. However, when the exposure is protracted over many cell doubling times (as will be the case for extended missions to the moon or Mars), the possibility exists that radiation effects that depend on multiple cellular events over a long time period, such as is probably the case in radiation-induced carcinogenesis, may not be additive in the above sense and the exposure interval may have to be included in the evaluation procedure. It is shown, however, that "inverse" dose-rate effects are not expected from intermediate LET radiations arising from the galactic cosmic ray environment due to the "sensitive-window-in-the-cell-cycle" hypothesis.

NASA Discipline Number 45-10↗