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DOE OSTI2026

Tar Formation and Mitigation in Pressurized Biomass and Cofired Gasification

Biomass gasification with CO2 capture has the potential to provide carbon-negative heat, power, and feedstock for sustainable hydrocarbon fuels. In a pressurized gasifier, precombustion solvent systems can capture CO2 with less energy than needed for amine-based postcombustion CO2 capture, and pressurized syngas is generally more suitable for fuel synthesis. Although precombustion capture has been used for many decades in large-scale fossil-based plants, it has not been well-demonstrated in smaller-scale biomass gasification. Precombustion solvents and product streams could be particularly impacted by tar and other organic compounds that tend to form in high concentrations during low-temperature biomass gasification. A pressurized pilot-scale gasifier was used to examine tar formation and fate when using CO2 capture with various blends of biomass and coal. The syngas was fully conditioned to remove particulate matter; capture sulfur; adjust syngas chemistry using water-gas shift; quench out moisture and condensable organics; and capture CO2. Tar concentrations were measured in the raw syngas, the product gas, and in the liquid streams over the course of several weeks. The gasifier was operated both as a high-pressure oxygen-blown system to mimic large-scale centralized gasification and at lower pressures under air-blown conditions to mimic a more likely small-scale system. A second high-temperature stage with oxidant injection was used to crack tars. The overall results showed how gasifier and CO2 capture performance change as fuel is blended between coal to biomass and what the fate of tar is through a precombustion CO2 capture system.

Strege, Josh [University of North Dakota EERC] (OR↗

DOE OSTI2025

The effect on soot and its gas precursors of doping ethylene with 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane in the nitrogen-fuel stream of a laminar non-premixed Planar Mixing Layer Flame (PMLF)

Synthetic Aviation Turbine Fuels (SATFs) are promising for reducing soot emissions from the aviation sector and diversifying Jet Fuel (JF) sources. Accurately predicting the combustion and emissions behavior of SATFs (and other JFs) necessitates robust experimental databases to elucidate the chemistry of long-chain iso-paraffins, which can compose up to two-thirds of SATF blends and whose behavior is considered to be well-represented by that of iso-dodecane isomers. Here, this study characterizes two laminar non-premixed Planar Mixing Layer Flames (PMLFs) with mild soot loads fueled by nitrogen-diluted ethylene, pure and doped with 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane, respectively. The two PMLFs have the same stoichiometric mixture fraction and total hydrocarbon mole fraction in the fuel stream (X F,F =X C2H4,F +X C12H26,F = 0.260), resulting in nearly the same maximum temperature (T max ≈1800 K) and simple identification of the effects of doping. Importantly, any horizontal PMLF cross-section has a self-similar structure that can be modeled as an equivalent One-Dimensional Counterflow Flame (1D-CF) with vanishingly small strain rate (a). The cross-section at a Height Above the Burner (HAB) of 50 mm is characterized in terms of C 0 -C 18 gas species using capillary sampling followed by GC-MS analyses. Laser-Induced Emission Spectroscopy (LIES) quantifies the soot volume fraction (ƒ v ) profiles at HAB=25 and 50 mm where Elastic Laser Light Scattering (E-LLS) is performed to determine the a of the equivalent 1D-CFs and the profile of the E-LLS equivalent diameter ( d 6,3 ) of soot. The substitution of 1500 ppm of ethylene with 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane causes an increase of ≈1.5 in the concentrations of several polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and fv. Concurrently, the measured d 6,3 doubles in the oxidizer stream, yet remains the same in the fuel stream, at HAB=50 mm. Instead, at HAB= 25 mm, the iso-dodecane doping does not affect the d 6,3 profile in either stream. The experimental results partially validate the chemical reactions and soot formation kinetic model developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and provide directions to further improve its predictions.

Iso-dodecane (2,2,4,6,6-Pentamethyl-Heptane)↗

DOE OSTI2026

RuKY Catalyst‐Packed Permeation Membrane for Quantitative Ammonia and d3‐Ammonia Dehydrogenation to Ultrapure Hydrogen

Ammonia is a promising carbon-free hydrogen carrier, but incomplete ammonia dehydrogenation (cracking) generates atmospheric emissions of NO x , a potent greenhouse gas. Additionally, incomplete cracking of ammonia leads to regulatory challenges in nuclear and fusion power, where tritiated ammonia (NT 3 ) emissions are strictly controlled. Therefore, we report the use of low-temperature ammonia dehydrogenation catalysts (3%Ru/1%Y/12%K/Al 2 O 3 ) in a palladium alloy H 2 permeation membrane for quantitative conversion of ammonia into hydrogen and nitrogen at industry-relevant conditions. This catalytic membrane reactor system achieved an astonishing effluent concentration of <1 ppm at 450°C under a 100% NH 3 stream, which is far beyond the 99.6% conversion target required for the adoption of ammonia as a vehicle fuel. The low-temperature ammonia dehydrogenation catalyst was tested in a packed bed reactor with NH 3 and ND 3 to both elucidate the reaction mechanism and to quantify the kinetic isotope effect of the membrane reactor. The rate-limiting step at temperatures relevant to the palladium membrane are isotope independent, indicating that the isotopologue content will not modify the desired reaction kinetics. By reducing emissions to below-trace levels with no additional separation, this work provides a path to greatly simplified and miniaturized ammonia cracking processes.

ammonia decomposition↗

DOE OSTI2025

Kinetic Plasma Simulation Capabilities in the MOOSE Framework: Verification of Particle-Particle Collisions

High-fidelity simulations of complex plasma systems allow researchers to gain key insights into and understanding of these systems. To facilitate massively parallel high-fidelity plasma simulations, finite-element-based particle-in-cell capabilities are being developed within the open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) based framework called Software for Advanced Large-scale Analysis of MAgnetic confinement for Numerical Design, Engineering & Research (SALAMANDER). While SALAMANDER’s primary objective is modeling edge plasmas and plasma-facing components in fusion devices, the particle-in-cell capabilities being developed are general and will support modeling low-temperature plasmas as well. Previously, collisionless magnetostatic simulation capabilities have been verified with the two-stream and Dorey-Guest-Harris instabilities, and single particle motion. Collisions were implemented using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method, and verification of this capability will be presented here several verification problems: relaxation of a randomly initialized gas to a Maxwellian distribution, Fourier heat flow, and comparison of reaction rates to both analytic calculations and those calculated using a multi-term Boltzmann solver.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Influence of elevated temperature and oxygen on the capture of radioactive iodine by silver functionalized silica aerogel

Reprocessing is considered a competent strategy for spent nuclear fuel management, yet radioiodine ( 129 I) is emitted in reprocessing off-gas as a hazardous byproduct. Silver functionalized silica aerogel (Ag 0 -aerogel), a promising iodine capture material, experiences a reduction in its capacity after prolonged exposure to off-gas components at elevated temperatures, a phenomenon termed as aging. To fully understand this process, we isolated the contribution of each aging factor, exposing Ag 0 -aerogel samples to N 2 and dry air gas streams, respectively, at 150 °C for different time periods. Aged samples were loaded with I 2 to examine the capacity change and comprehensively characterized to investigate the evolution of their properties. Results show that temperature alone did not alter Ag 0 -aerogel's capacity but triggered Ag 0 nanoparticles sintering and generated organic sulfur species. The presence of O 2 reduced the capacity by ~20 %, causing (i) formation of silver sulfide (Ag 2 S) crystals and (ii) oxidation of Ag-thiolate (Ag-S-r) to Ag sulfonate (Ag-SO 3 -r). Given that Ag 2 S readily adsorbs I 2 , the formation of Ag-SO 3 -r is the major inhibitor for iodine adsorption. This hypothesis was supported by density functional theory (DFT) simulations. These findings unraveled key mechanisms of Ag 0 -aerogel aging, which are useful in the development of materials that withstand realistic spent-nuclear-fuel-reprocessing off-gas conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reduced order modeling of a fluidized bed particle receiver for concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage

Oxide particles can serve as both the heat transfer and thermal energy storage (TES) media for next-generation concentrating solar power (CSP) plants where high-temperature TES enables dispatchable electricity from efficient power cycles with firing temperatures above 600 °C. Transferring heat to flowing particles at such high temperatures in a MW-scale central tower receiver remains a challenge for the CSP community. For indirect receivers with external walls to contain the particles, maintaining wall temperatures below the limits of structural metal alloys requires high heat transfer coefficients between the wall and the moving particle stream. Bubbling fluidization of downward-flowing particles can sustain high bed-wall heat transfer coefficients (> 1000 W m -2 K -1 ). Using experimentally calibrated correlations for bed-wall heat transfer and vertical particle dispersion, this study implements an axially discretized zonal model of a counterflow fluidized bed receiver to explore how bubbling fluidization may enable indirect cavity particle receivers. High bed-wall heat transfer coefficients support solar fluxes on angled cavity walls > 200 kW m -2 at peak aperture fluxes of 980 kW m -2 while maintaining external wall temperatures < 950 °C. Lateral particle dispersion enables hotter particles near the receiver leading edge to mix with cooler particles further from the leading edge to lower maximum external wall temperatures. Parametric studies identify how mass fluxes, particle dispersion, and solar concentrations impact indirect receiver thermal efficiency and uniformity for a CSP plant. These studies provide a basis for the design of indirect fluidized-bed cavity receivers that can maintain particle outlet temperatures for TES above 750 °C.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ice-slurry production for solar-ice systems using supercooling with an in-stream crystallizer

Using ice slurry produced from supercooled water with an in-stream crystallizer opens a new path for solarice systems, increasing efficiency and reducing investment cost compared to ice-on-coil systems. Power needs are decoupled from the stored energy since the heat exchangers are not evenly distributed in the ice storage vessel but directly placed as the heat pump evaporator, which depends on the heat pump capacity and not on the ice storage volume. The novel ice storage design can serve as a heat source for a heat pump, where its evaporator is used to supercool water below 0 °C, or for refrigeration. The supercooled water at a temperature around −2 °C, maintained in a meta-stable liquid state, is triggered to nucleate in an in-stream crystallizer. The current design of the ice crystallizer allows for continuous operation of the system and scalability. Experimental results obtained with a gasketed plate heat exchanger used to supercool water and an in-stream crystallizer operated at a power of up to 6.5 kW are presented.

Thamm, Ann-Katrin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Finite ion temperature effects on electrostatic instabilities in partially magnetized plasmas

In this paper, the effects of warm ions on electrostatic, kinetic instabilities observed in partially magnetized plasmas, such as the electron cyclotron drift instability (ECDI) and modified two-stream instability (MTSI), are investigated. The kinetic dispersion relation that accounts for warm, non-magnetized ions and warm, magnetized electrons is solved using a complex root-finding technique [A. C. Denig and K. Hara, Phys. Plasmas 30, 032108 (2023)]. It is observed that finite ion temperature introduces ion Landau damping effects, decreasing the growth rate of most unstable modes. The high-frequency, short-wavelength ECDI modes are more strongly affected by ion Landau damping than the low-frequency, long-wavelength MTSI modes. The solutions of the kinetic dispersion relation for MTSI are compared with the fluid dispersion relation of MTSI, which was originally proposed by McBride et al. [Phys. Fluids 15 2367–2383 (1972)]. The differences in the dispersion characteristics between the kinetic and fluid MTSI limits are assessed, illustrating the effects of electron and ion Landau damping on kinetic instabilities in partially magnetized plasmas.

Denig, A. C. (ORCID:0000000253339572)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Eocene-Oligocene Metamorphism, Fluid Flow and Deformation in the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range Metamorphic Core Complex

Metamorphic core complexes are ubiquitous in collapsed orogens globally and play a primary role in crustal exhumation. Here, we investigate the metamorphic history of the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range metamorphic core complex, Nevada, using petrochronology to understand how magmatism, metamorphism and deformation interact to modulate crustal rheology, and the timing of exhumation within the Sevier orogenic belt. Field study, microstructural analysis, thermobarometry and laser ablation split-stream monazite, titanite and allanite petrochronology of the mylonitic footwall were integrated to elucidate the pressure-temperature-time (P-T-t) evolution. Major-, trace-element and quartz-in-garnet thermobarometry show peak metamorphism occurred at 5.5–6 kbar and 600–650°C across the study area. Monazite and titanite U-(Th)-Pb petrochronology constrain this episode of metamorphism to 88–81 Ma with the structurally deepest samples yielding dates down to ca. 71 Ma. The preservation of peak metamorphic mineral assemblages indicates these rocks remained at near-peak temperature conditions into the Cenozoic. Cenozoic metamorphism occurred during a punctuated episode contemporaneous with the Great Basin ignimbrite flare up. All samples show a distinct 39–37 Ma population of monazite, titanite and allanite dates that correlate with the emplacement of quartz diorite and gabbro intrusions throughout the footwall. Accessory phases contain zoning textures in backscattered electron images that are consistent with fluid-mediated dissolution-reprecipitation reactions. The U-(Th)-Pb analyses from these zones yield 39–27 Ma dates interpreted as the timing of fluid flow. The results of this study elucidate the integrated importance of magmatism, melting and fluid flow in driving the coupled evolution of Late Cretaceous metamorphism within the Sevier hinterland and the subsequent Cenozoic metamorphic core complex development that exhumed the middle crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Network of Modified Portable Optical Particle Spectrometers Instrument Handbook

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s portable optical particle spectrometer (POPS) network (Figure 1) provides an aerosol size distribution spectrum from 150 nm to 5 μm in 16 logarithmically spaced bins. The data emanating from this network of up to four matching POPS in weatherproof enclosures comprises one-minute averages of the aerosol size and number spectrum and the co-located temperature and relative humidity. The total particle concentration and sample flow rate are also provided. The sample stream is not dried before its measurement. Two size spectra are provided: the default size distribution corresponds to the calibration using polystyrene latex spheres (PSL), while the second size distribution corresponds to the calibration using size-selected dry ammonium sulfate aerosol. The principal scientific application of the data provided by the ARM POPS is to determine the aerosol size distribution across a region in three disparate locations – the size distribution is broadly relevant to studies of pollution and of conditions in the boundary layer. A high particle concentration can be an indicator of unhealthy levels of pollution; the dispersion of particles in the atmosphere is a predictor of long-range visibility; and particles serve as collectors of condensing gases including water vapor, and thus are a factor in the formation and properties of fogs and clouds, and in the initiation of precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous Anomaly Detection For Continuous Streams

The code implements the Isolation Forest (IFML) algorithm within the digital twin (DT) of the AGN-201 nuclear reactor. The DT captures real-time operational data including control rod positions, reactor power, and temperature. The IFML model isolates anomalies by detecting patterns that deviate from expected operational behavior. The algorithm recursively partitions the data and assigns anomaly scores based on the isolation of rare and different events. By tuning parameters specific to the reactor’s operational data, the IFML identifies deviations such as unauthorized material insertions or reactor reactivity shifts. The system streams data using LabView and integrates with the DeepLynx data warehouse for anomaly processing.

Trevino, Eduardo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids

Understanding aquatic ecosystem metabolism involves the study of two key processes: carbon fixation via primary production and organic C mineralization as total ecosystem respiration (ERtot). In streams and rivers, ERtot includes respiration in the water column (ERwc) and in the sediments (ERsed). While literature surveys suggest that ERsed is often a dominant contributor to ERtot, recent studies indicate that the relative influence of sediment-associated processes versus water column processes can fluctuate along the river continuum. Still, a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to these shifts within basins and across stream orders is needed. Here we contribute to this need by measuring ERwc and collecting water samples across 47 sites in the Yakima River basin, Washington, USA. We found that ERwc rates varied throughout the basin during baseflow conditions, ranging from –7.38 to 0.36 g O2 m?3 d?1, and encompassed the range of ERwc literature values. Additionally, by comparing to ERtot estimates for rivers across the contiguous United States, we suggest that the contribution of ERwc rates to reach-scale ERtot rates across the Yakima River was likely highly variable, but we did not test this directly. We observed that temperature, nutrient concentrations (dissolved organic carbon, total dissolved nitrogen), and total suspended solids explained 41% of ERwc variability across the basin. Our findings highlight the potential relevance of water column processes in aquatic ecosystem metabolism, with the Yakima River basin serving as an environmentally diverse river network representative of the larger Columbia River basin that spans much of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Our results are generally congruent with previous work, suggesting that the observed variability and suite of associated environmental factors influencing ERwc are potentially transferable across basins.

Laan, Maggi M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Ecological Impacts of Dry and Hot Shocks in the Land of Midnight Sun

Contreras-Serrano et al. (2025) and Heinzelmann et al. (2025) investigated how droughts and heatwaves affect plant physiology and community functions in the Arctic. At first glance, such studies may seem counterintuitive. As the Earth's refrigerator, the Arctic is probably the least likely place that one might associate with droughts and heatwaves. However, dry and hot shocks do occur there, and their frequency and intensity can be surprisingly high. On June 20, 2020, the thermometer at the weather station of the Siberian town of Verkhoyansk (67.55° N and 133.40° E) witnessed a record temperature of 38°C in the Article Circle (Ciavarella et al. 2021). This record Arctic temperature was the consequence of the congruence of the powers of the stratospheric polar vortex, the tropospheric jet stream, and the Arctic Oscillation, all of which reached record strength in the early months of 2020, priming the conditions for an unprecedented ecological disturbance (Overland and Wang 2021). This extreme event, now known as the 2020 Siberian heatwave, caused widespread wildfires, insect outbreaks, and permafrost degradation, releasing almost 60 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere (ESOTC 2020). Extreme weather events like this are not just limited to Siberia (Dobricic et al. 2020). The Arctic has warmed up much faster than the rest of the world, that is, “Arctic Amplification” (Moon et al. 2024). The total land area affected by severe, extreme, and very extreme heatwaves has doubled, tripled, and quadrupled, respectively, across the terrestrial Arctic since the 1950s, and the extent is projected to continue increasing throughout the 21st century (Rantanen et al. 2024).

Arctic↗

DOE OSTI2024

Iodine Capture Studies of Silver Mordenite and Novel Alternative Metal Sorbents

Radioiodine is one of the radionuclides of concern when considering reprocessing of used nuclear fuel (UNF). It is expected to be released primarily in the dissolver off-gas (DOG) stream. Sorbents that target I 2 removal from a UNF processing off gas must perform efficiently under elevated temperatures in the presence of water vapor and nitrogen oxide gasses (NOx). Many studies have been conducted that examine the adsorption of iodine species in the presence of NOx gases through reduced silver-exchanged mordenite (Ag 0 Z), a zeolite mineral. This study characterizes the effects of iodine, water vapor, and nitrogen dioxide on the adsorption of I 2 by Ag 0 Z at lower temperatures suitable for comparison with novel Cu- and Bi- bearing sorbents which offer a non-RCRA alternative. When exposed to ‘harsh’ conditions such as I 2 , H 2 O, and NO 2 vapors carried by air, Cu 2 S-polyacrylonitrile (PAN) is more efficient than Ag 0 Z and all other novel sorbents, providing with 11% I capture efficiency. However, under ‘ideal’ conditions in which I 2 is carried by dry air), Ag 0 Z is more efficient than Cu 2 S-PAN and other novel sorbents, providing 74% I capture efficiency. To investigate this result and the overall performance of all sorbents tested, several characterization techniques were employed, including thermal gravimetric analysis, scanning electron microscopy – electron dispersion X-Ray spectroscopy, powder X-ray diffraction, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. These techniques are discussed within this report. This document also includes a design and test plan update from Idaho National Laboratory as the next step in testing the high performing sorbents from thin-bed tests carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwater–streamflow interactions above 2,500 m, new measurements in the Upper Colorado River headwaters indicate declining groundwater storage that is dated decades to millennia old. Here we use integrated hydrologic modelling spanning water years 2015–2021 to determine whether the loss of old-age groundwater buffers streamflow during low-snow years and whether that loss is exacerbated with warming. Results show that old-groundwater contributions to streams remain relatively steady through time, unlike the more variable contributions from young groundwater. Numerical experiments of increased surface air temperatures (+2.5 °C and +4 °C) increase rain–snow fractions and evapotranspiration and decrease runoff ratio by 2–3% per degree Celsius increase. As streamflow declines with warming, the age of groundwater supporting it gets older, in part owing to intermediate-aged (1–3 year) groundwater declining twice as fast. Simulations show that water table depths at higher elevations (>3,700 m) decline disproportionately and fail to recover even during wet years. These findings suggest altered groundwater–streamflow interactions with warming and snow loss, with implications for water resources.

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R. [Lawrence Berkeley Nati↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mechanistic Modeling of TEG Dehydrator Emissions in Oil and Gas Industry

This work presents a mechanistic modeling approach for simulating methane emissions from triethylene glycol (TEG) dehydrators used in oil & gas (O&G) operations. The model was developed as a modular component of the Mechanistic Air Emissions Simulator (MAES) tool, incorporating species-specific absorption and emission dynamics through two-level, second-order polynomial regression (PR) models trained on ProMax simulation data: (1) species-level regression models that track the transfer rates of individual gas species within the dehydrator unit streams, and (2) outlet flow stream regression models that predict the fraction of inlet gas distributed among the outlet streams of the dehydrator unit. These behaviors were characterized over a range of glycol circulation ratios, wet gas pressures, and temperatures. The model was validated using root mean square error (RMSE) analysis. The species-level PR achieved low root mean square error (RMSE) values (<0.03) for light hydrocarbon species across all dehydrator components, ranging from 0.0009 for methane to 0.029 for normal pentane. Similarly, the outlet-level PR yielded RMSE values below 0.002 for the dry gas fraction, 0.001 for the flash tank fraction, and 0.002 for the still vent fraction, demonstrating strong agreement between predicted and reference ProMax values. When deployed at field facilities, the model significantly improved MAES-simulated dehydrator emissions, revealing that gas-assisted glycol pump emissions are the dominant contributors to both dehydrator-level and site-level methane emissions under uncontrolled conditions. Further analysis of the 154 dehydrator units reported by operators under the AMI 2024 project showed that 54 units (31%) used gas-driven glycol pumps, of which 6 units (11%) operated with uncontrolled flash tanks, and 22 units (40.7%) were identified as potentially oversized. Of the six dehydrator units with uncontrolled gas-assisted pumps, pump emissions accounted for 90.25% of total dehydrator emissions and 63.10% of total site-level emissions. These findings highlight substantial opportunities for emissions mitigation through equipment upgrades.

MAES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Catalytic resonance theory for the kinetics of photon-promoted catalysis

The illumination of catalytic surfaces with a continuous or pulsed stream of photons dynamically modulates surface chemistry for faster rates, non-equilibrium conversion, or product selectivity control. To establish fundamental principles of dynamic photon-modulated catalysis, the photocatalytic conversion of a generic surface reaction was simulated using the kinetic Monte Carlo method to understand the kinetic implications of an independent stream of photons that promotes surface product desorption. The time-averaged photocatalytic rate at differential conditions for varying photon flux and temperatures indicated three kinetic regimes described by product thermal desorption control, surface reaction control, and an intermediate kinetic regime with a zero slope Arrhenius plot, consistent with a degree of rate control dominated by the photon arrival frequency (i.e., per-site photon flux). Here, the maximum photocatalytic rate occurred orders of magnitude above the Sabatier limit at the resonance frequency, identified as the photon arrival frequency matching the surface reaction rate constant.

Canavan, Jesse R. [University of Minnesota, Minnea↗