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The SIMRAND methodology: Theory and application for the simulation of research and development projects

A research and development (R&D) project often involves a number of decisions that must be made concerning which subset of systems or tasks are to be undertaken to achieve the goal of the R&D project. To help in this decision making, SIMRAND (SIMulation of Research ANd Development Projects) is a methodology for the selection of the optimal subset of systems or tasks to be undertaken on an R&D project. Using alternative networks, the SIMRAND methodology models the alternative subsets of systems or tasks under consideration. Each path through an alternative network represents one way of satisfying the project goals. Equations are developed that relate the system or task variables to the measure of reference. Uncertainty is incorporated by treating the variables of the equations probabilistically as random variables, with cumulative distribution functions assessed by technical experts. Analytical techniques of probability theory are used to reduce the complexity of the alternative networks. Cardinal utility functions over the measure of preference are assessed for the decision makers. A run of the SIMRAND Computer I Program combines, in a Monte Carlo simulation model, the network structure, the equations, the cumulative distribution functions, and the utility functions.

Miles, R. F., Jr.

A model of nitrous oxide evolution from soil driven by rainfall events. I - Model structure and sensitivity. II - Model applications

Simulations of N2O and CO2 emissions from soils were conducted with a rain-event driven, process-oriented model (DNDC) of nitrogen and carbon cycling processes in soils. The magnitude and trends of simulated N2O (or N2O + N2) and CO2 emissions were consistent with the results obtained in field experiments. The successful simulation of these emissions from the range of soil types examined demonstrates that the DNDC will be a useful tool for the study of linkages among climate, soil-atmosphere interactions, land use, and trace gas fluxes.

Changsheng, LI

Two-fluid simulations of galaxy formation

We investigate the formation of galaxies and larger structure with a simulation modeling two gravitationally coupled fluids representing dark matter and baryons. The baryon gas dynamics are calculated with a smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method, and the physics modeled includes thermal pressure, shock heating, and radiative cooling. We simulate a 16 Mpc periodic cube with 64(exp 3) particles in each fluid and 10% baryon mass fraction. We confirm, for the first time experimentally, disk formation as a natural consequence of hierarchical clustering in a large-scale cosmological environment. The majority of isolated galaxies exhibit centrifugally supported disks. A power-law relation between cold baryonic mass and maximum rotation velocity is found, M varies as nu(sub rot)(exp alpha) with alpha = 2.5 after correcting for differential numerical resolution. Both the spatial and velocity distributions of the simulated galaxies are biased with respect to the dark matter. A counts-in-cells analysis indicates that an unphysical degree of merging in the central cluster is likely responsible for the antibias signal in the correlation function. A robust, scale-dependent velocity bias is measured. The ratio of galaxy to dark matter pairwise velocity dispersions on a scale of 1 Mpc is 0.7. The amplitude is only mildly dependent on redshift or mass cutoff and scales with separation as r(exp 0.2). The degree to which these results depend on numerical parameters is discussed. Mass resolution plays a key role in controlling the resulting fraction of cold, dense baryons. The mass fraction associated with galaxies decreases by a factor of approximately greater than 3 when the mass per particle is increased by a factor 8. Photoionization and energy input from supernova will have to be included to determine more carefully the fraction of highly dissipated material and the characteristics of the stellar component of galaxies.

Evrard, August E.

Dynamic Model Investigation of Water Pressures and Accelerations Encountered During Landings of the Apollo Spacecraft

An experimental investigation was made to determine impact water pressures, accelerations, and landing dynamics of a 1/4-scale dynamic model of the command module of the Apollo spacecraft. A scaled-stiffness aft heat shield was used on the model to simulate the structural deflections of the full-scale heat shield. Tests were made on water to obtain impact pressure data at a simulated parachute letdown (vertical) velocity component of approximately 30 ft/sec (9.1 m/sec) full scale. Additional tests were made on water, sand, and hard clay-gravel landing surfaces at simulated vertical velocity components of 23 ft/sec (7.0 m/sec) full scale. Horizontal velocity components investigated ranged from 0 to 50 ft/sec (15 m/sec) full scale and the pitch attitudes ranged from -40 degrees to 29 degrees. Roll attitudes were O degrees, 90 degrees, and 180 degrees, and the yaw attitude was 0 degrees.

Tests

Artemis I Prelaunch Flight Readiness Analysis

The Prelaunch loads analysis traditionally captures the vehicle and Mobile Launcher (ML) loads associated with stacking in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB), rollout to the pad, and high-speed winds while out on the pad prior to liftoff. The following paper details the methodology used in this analysis for loads for the Artemis Flight Readiness assessment. This paper focuses on the stacking and assembly loads, the loads induced by fueling, and the load seen during rollout to the pad. Methods for integrating multiple structural models in dynamic simulations using interface forces, constraint modes, and residual vectors is discussed. Both linear and nonlinear responses are addressed. Simulation results are compared to measured data from the Dynamic Rollout Test (DRT) and Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR).

SLS

Stochastic Simulation Tool for Aerospace Structural Analysis

Stochastic simulation refers to incorporating the effects of design tolerances and uncertainties into the design analysis model and then determining their influence on the design. A high-level evaluation of one such stochastic simulation tool, the MSC.Robust Design tool by MSC.Software Corporation, has been conducted. This stochastic simulation tool provides structural analysts with a tool to interrogate their structural design based on their mathematical description of the design problem using finite element analysis methods. This tool leverages the analyst's prior investment in finite element model development of a particular design. The original finite element model is treated as the baseline structural analysis model for the stochastic simulations that are to be performed. A Monte Carlo approach is used by MSC.Robust Design to determine the effects of scatter in design input variables on response output parameters. The tool was not designed to provide a probabilistic assessment, but to assist engineers in understanding cause and effect. It is driven by a graphical-user interface and retains the engineer-in-the-loop strategy for design evaluation and improvement. The application problem for the evaluation is chosen to be a two-dimensional shell finite element model of a Space Shuttle wing leading-edge panel under re-entry aerodynamic loading. MSC.Robust Design adds value to the analysis effort by rapidly being able to identify design input variables whose variability causes the most influence in response output parameters.

Knight, Norman F.

Structure Detection of Nonlinear Aeroelastic Systems with Application to Aeroelastic Flight Test Data

This viewgraph presentation reviews the 1. Motivation for the study 2. Nonlinear Model Form 3. Structure Detection 4. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) 5. Objectives 6. Results 7. Assess LASSO as a Structure Detection Tool: Simulated Nonlinear Models 8. Applicability to Complex Systems: F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing Flight Test Data. The authors conclude that 1. this is a novel approach for detecting the structure of highly over-parameterised nonlinear models in situations where other methods may be inadequate 2. that it is a practical significance in the analysis of aircraft dynamics during envelope expansion and could lead to more efficient control strategies and 3. this could allow greater insight into the functionality of various systems dynamics, by providing a quantitative model which is easily interpretable

Kukreja, Sunil L.

Crash Simulation and Nonlinear Structural Analysis

Behavior of structures composed of trusses, frames and membranes modeled. Crash simulation analysis useful in developing understanding of multifaceted relationship between complex structural configuration, such as aircraft, and response during crash. CDC version written in FORTRAN IV.

Kamat, M. P.

Development of Multi-Physics Dynamics Models for High-Frequency Large-Amplitude Structural Response Simulation

An analytic approach is demonstrated to reveal potential pyroshock-driven dynamic effects causing power losses in the Thermo-Electric (TE) module bars of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG). This study utilizes high-fidelity finite element analysis with SIERRA/PRESTO codes to estimate wave propagation effects due to large-amplitude suddenly-applied pyro shock loads in the MMRTG. A high fidelity model of the TE module bar was created with approximately 30 million degrees-of-freedom (DOF). First, a quasi-static preload was applied on top of the TE module bar, then transient tri-axial acceleration inputs were simultaneously applied on the preloaded module. The applied input acceleration signals were measured during MMRTG shock qualification tests performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. An explicit finite element solver in the SIERRA/PRESTO computational environment, along with a 3000 processor parallel super -computing framework at NASA AMES, was used for the simulation. The simulation results were investigated both qualitatively and quantitatively. The predicted shock wave propagation results provide detailed structural responses throughout the TE module bar, and key insights into the dynamic response (i.e., loads, displacements, accelerations) of critical internal spring/piston compression systems, TE materials, and internal component interfaces in the MMRTG TE module bar. They also provide confidence on the viability of this high-fidelity modeling scheme to accurately predict shock wave propagation patterns within complex structures. This analytic approach is envisioned for modeling shock sensitive hardware susceptible to intense shock environments positioned near shock separation devices in modern space vehicles and systems.

Shock Waves

Structure and energetics of standing eddies in the winter Northern Hemisphere simulated by the NCAR Community Climate Model and the GLA Climate Model

The structure and maintenance of standing eddies in the NCAR Community Climate Model and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres Climate Model are examined. The energy equations and data used in the study, and the differences between the two GCMs are discussed. The three-dimensional structure (height, temperature, and vertical velocity) and potential and kinetic energies and thermal and dynamic interactions of the standing eddies are described.

Lee, Yen-Huei

LUVOIR-ECLIPS Closed-Loop Adaptive Optics Performance and Contrast Predictions

One of the primary science goals of the Large UV/Optical/Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR) mission concept is to detect and characterize Earth-like exoplanets orbiting nearby stars with direct imaging. The success of its coronagraph instrument ECLIPS (Extreme Coronagraph for Living Planetary Systems) depends on the ability to stabilize the wavefront from a large segmented mirror such that optical path differences are limited to tens of picometers RMS during an exposure time of a few hours. In order to relax the constraints on the mechanical stability, ECLIPS will be equipped with a wavefront sensing and control (WS\&C) architecture to correct wavefront errors up to temporal frequencies $\gtrsim$1 Hz. These errors may be dominated by spacecraft structural dynamics exciting vibrations at the segmented primary mirror. In this work, we present detailed simulations of the WS\&C system within the ECLIPS instrument and the resulting contrast performance. This study assumes wavefront aberrations based on a finite element model of a simulated telescope with spacecraft structural dynamics. Wavefront residuals are then computed according to a model of the adaptive optics system that includes numerical propagation to simulate a realistic wavefront sensor and an analytical model of the temporal performance. An end-to-end numerical propagation model of ECLIPS is then used to estimate the residual starlight intensity distribution at the science detector. We show that the contrast performance depends strongly on the target star magnitude and the spatio-temporal distribution of wavefront errors from the telescope. In cases with significant vibration, we advocate for the use of laser metrology to mitigate high temporal frequency wavefront errors and increase the mission yield.

Sirbu, Dan

Analysis of Fluid Flow over a Surface

A method, apparatus, and computer program product for modeling heat radiated by a structure. The flow of a fluid over a surface of a model of the structure is simulated. The surface has a plurality of surface elements. Heat radiated by the plurality of surface elements in response to the fluid flowing over the surface of the model of the structure is identified. An effect of heat radiated by at least a portion of the plurality of surface elements on each other is identified. A model of the heat radiated by the structure is created using the heat radiated by the plurality of surface elements and the effect of the heat radiated by at least a portion of the plurality of surface elements on each other.

McCloud, Peter L.

Infrared, microwave, and spaceborne radar simulations of a deep convective system using a 3-D cloud ensemble method

A 3D cloud model is used to simulate the storm structure, and the results are linked to microwave and infrared radiative transfer models for simulation of aircraft observations. Spaceborne radar data are also simulated along the aircraft flight track. The cloud and radiative model simulations are studied and compared with aircraft observations. The initial results indicate that the 3D cloud model is capable of simulating the major features of observed storm systems when given a representative atmospheric sounding to initialize the convective systems. The simulations of infrared and microwave radiances provide reasonably good comparisons with the observations.

Yeh, H.-Y. M.

Time simulation of flutter with large stiffness changes

Time simulation of flutter, involving large local structural changes, is formulated with a state-space model that is based on a relatively small number of generalized coordinates. Free-free vibration modes are first calculated for a nominal finite-element model with relatively large fictitious masses located at the area of structural changes. A low-frequency subset of these modes is then transformed into a set of structural modal coordinates with which the entire simulation is performed. These generalized coordinates and the associated oscillatory aerodynamic force coefficient matrices are used to construct an efficient time-domain, state-space model for basic aeroelastic case. The time simulation can then be performed by simply changing the mass, stiffness and damping coupling terms when structural changes occur. It is shown that the size of the aeroelastic model required for time simulation with large structural changes at a few a priori known locations is similar to that required for direct analysis of a single structural case. The method is applied to the simulation of an aeroelastic wind-tunnel model. The diverging oscillations are followed by the activation of a tip-ballast decoupling mechanism that stabilizes the system but may cause significant transient overshoots.

Karpel, M.

Structural considerations for a software life cycle dynamic simulation model

This paper presents the results of a preliminary study into the prospects for simulating the software implementation and maintenance life cycle process, with the aim of producing a computerized tool for use by management and software engineering personnel in project planning, tradeoff studies involving product, environmental, situational, and technological factors, and training. The approach taken is the modular application of a 'flow of resource' concept to the systems dynamics simulation modeling technique. The software life cycle process is represented as a number of stochastic, time-varying, interacting work tasks that each achieves one of the project milestones. Each task is characterized by the item produced, the personnel applied, and the budgetary profile.

Tausworthe, R. C.

Time simulation of flutter with large stiffness changes

Time simulation of flutter, involving large local structural changes, is formulated with a state-space model that is based on a relatively small number of generalized coordinates. Free-free vibration modes are first calculated for a nominal finite-element model with relatively large fictitious masses located at the area of structural changes. A low-frequency subset of these modes is then transformed into a set of structural modal coordinates with which the entire simulation is performed. These generalized coordinates and the associated oscillatory aerodynamic force coefficient matrices are used to construct an efficient time-domain, state-space model for a basic aeroelastic case. The time simulation can then be performed by simply changing the mass, stiffness, and damping coupling terms when structural changes occur. It is shown that the size of the aeroelastic model required for time simulation with large structural changes at a few apriori known locations is similar to that required for direct analysis of a single structural case. The method is applied to the simulation of an aeroelastic wind-tunnel model. The diverging oscillations are followed by the activation of a tip-ballast decoupling mechanism that stabilizes the system but may cause significant transient overshoots.

Karpel, Mordechay

Physics-Informed Machine Learning Model for Ceramic Matrix Composite Creep

A physics-informed recurrent neural network (RNN) based surrogate model is developed to emulate the nonlinear, time-dependent constitutive behavior of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) driven by matrix damage and constituent creep at the microscale. Physics-informed constraints are introduced into the surrogate model through regularization to ground the prediction in physics and improve its predictive capabilities. Training data is generated using the high-fidelity generalized method of cells (HFGMC) approach which calls appropriate creep and damage models for each of the constituents. This coupling permits simulating the nonlinear behavior of CMCs based on constituent response at the microscale along with microstructural features such as fiber and porosity volume fraction and fiber radius. The microscale repeating unit cell is loaded under creep fatigue conditions to replicate the material loading experienced in a turbine engine. Therefore, the RNN-based surrogate model is tasked with predicting, as a function of variable input stress sequence, temperature, and microstructural features, the resulting strain history response while satisfying physical constraints related to creep rate, isochoric inelastic deformation, and strain energy density. The trained surrogate model is shown to effectively match the strain history over quantified distributions of microstructural features and relevant loading regimes and temperatures. Neural network based surrogate models can offer efficient alternatives to running computationally intensive multiscale material models to simulate the nonlinear response of large structural models. Therefore, the presented work provides evidence towards the feasibility of developing, training, and running such models for CMCs with complex microstructures, nonlinear time-dependent material response, and under non-monotonic loading conditions.

ceramic matrix composites