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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A physics-driven Σ-Y atomization model for heavy-duty engine simulations

The atomization of a liquid jet is a multi-scale and multi-physics problem of interest for many engineering applications. Particularly, it drives the fuel-oxidizer mixing and dictates the efficiency of combustion engines. High-fidelity multi-phase simulations remain challenging due to the excessive computational cost required to capture all the atomization scales. Thus, atomization models are necessary to represent sub-grid liquid structures. Here, in this work, a modified Σ-Y model in the context of Eulerian-Lagrangian Spray Atomization (ELSA) is used to transport the surface area density of the spray. The model's predictive performance is assessed under various operating conditions relevant to heavy-duty engines using the Engine Combustion Network (ECN) Spray C and Spray D research-grade injectors. The classic droplet collision formulation of the Σ-Y model alone does not replicate the response of the measured spray surface area to changes in injector, ambient pressure, and injection pressure, requiring individual tuning of the model's parameters. Instead, a transition between dense and dilute spray breakup mechanisms is proposed in terms of the average droplet spacing. The collision breakup mechanism represents the dilute spray, whereas the droplet size in the dense spray is driven by a competition between the integral scale of turbulence and the balance between the turbulent kinetic energy and the surface energy of the droplets. Such an approach minimizes the requirements for model tuning. Moreover, the role of the constants of a compressible standard k-ε RANS model is assessed in the injector's internal flow and external spray simulation framework, and an updated set is proposed. The results are validated against x-ray radiography and Ultra-Small Angle X-ray Scattering (USAXS) data and highlight the predictive capabilities of the proposed physics-driven Σ-Y model, which is compatible with engine simulation turnaround times.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Tide‐Driven Wetland Soil Redox and Biogeochemical Interactions Into a Land Surface Model

Abstract Redox processes, aqueous and solid‐phase chemistry, and pH dynamics are key drivers of subsurface biogeochemical cycling and methanogenesis in terrestrial and wetland ecosystems but are typically not included in terrestrial carbon cycle models. These omissions may introduce errors when simulating systems where redox interactions and pH fluctuations are important, such as wetlands where saturation of soils can produce anoxic conditions and coastal systems where sulfate inputs from seawater can influence biogeochemistry. Integrating cycling of redox‐sensitive elements could therefore allow models to better represent key elements of carbon cycling and greenhouse gas production. We describe a model framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) with PFLOTRAN biogeochemistry, allowing geochemical processes and redox interactions to be integrated with land surface model simulations. We implemented a reaction network including aerobic decomposition, fermentation, sulfate reduction, sulfide oxidation, methanogenesis, and methanotrophy as well as pH dynamics along with iron oxide and iron sulfide mineral precipitation and dissolution. We simulated biogeochemical cycling in tidal wetlands subject to either saltwater or freshwater inputs driven by tidal hydrological dynamics. In simulations with saltwater tidal inputs, sulfate reduction led to accumulation of sulfide, higher dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, lower dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and lower methane emissions than simulations with freshwater tidal inputs. Model simulations compared well with measured porewater concentrations and surface gas emissions from coastal wetlands in the Northeastern United States. These results demonstrate how simulating geochemical reaction networks can improve land surface model simulations of subsurface biogeochemistry and carbon cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding of Ag Nanocatalysts for Electrocatalytic CO2 Conversion: Effects of Particle Size and Carbon Support

In this talk, we combined ultrahigh vacuum (UHV) surface science techniques, electrochemical measurements, and computational modeling to investigate Ag based electrocatalysts for CO2 reduction reaction (CO2RR). Our goal is to understand the critical characteristics governing the activity and selectivity of Ag electrocatalysts. Ag electrocatalysts were grown on highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) in the UHV chamber, characterized with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), and then tested in a custom-built gastight H-cell. Supported by computational modeling based on density functional theory (DFT) calculations and microkinetic modeling (MKM), our studies revealed a strong size-dependent electrocatalytic CO2-to-CO conversion of the Ag nanoparticle electrocatalysts with average particle diameter between 2 to 6 nm. Smaller diameter (< 3 nm) particles favored H2 evolution reaction (HER) due to a high population of Ag edge sites, whereas larger diameter particles favored CO2RR as the population of Ag(100) surface sites grew. We further discovered that electronic interactions between small diameter Ag particles and highly defective carbon supports could break the size-dependent CO2RR reactivity, resulting in highly selective (CO Faradaic Efficiency > 90%) and active Ag nanoparticle electrocatalysts with sizes < 2 nm diameter. This knowledge is key to understand electrocatalysts performance and to ultimately guide electrocatalyst design

Ag nanoparticles↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating dermal contact soil exposure for amphibians

Abstract Chemical exposure estimation through the dermal route is an underemphasized area of ecological risk assessment for terrestrial animals. Currently, there are efforts to create exposure models to estimate doses from this pathway for use in ecological risk assessment. One significant limitation has been insufficient published data to characterize exposure and to support the selection and parameterization of appropriate models, particularly for amphibians in terrestrial habitats. Recent publications measuring pesticide doses to terrestrial‐phase amphibians have begun to rectify this situation. We collated and summarized available measurements of terrestrial amphibian dermal exposure to pesticides from 11 studies in which researchers measured tissue concentrations associated with known pesticide experimental application rates. This data set included tissue concentrations in 11 amphibian species and 14 different pesticides. We then compared the results of two screening exposure models that differed based on surface area scaling approaches as a function of body weight (one based on birds as surrogates for amphibians and another amphibian‐specific) to the measured tissue residue concentrations. We define a false‐negative rate for each screening model as the proportion of amphibians for which the predicted concentration is less than the observed concentration (i.e., underestimate), contrary to the intent of screening models, which are intended to have a bias for higher exposure concentrations. The screening model that uses birds as surrogates did not have any instances where estimated expected avian doses were less than measured amphibian body burdens. When using the amphibian‐specific exposure model that corrected for differences between avian and amphibian surface area, measured concentrations were greater than model estimates for 11.3% of the 1158 comparisons. The database of measured pesticide concentrations in terrestrial amphibians is provided for use in calculating bioconcentration factors and for future amphibian dermal exposure model development. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:9–16. © 2022 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

A global model–measurement evaluation of particle light scattering coefficients at elevated relative humidity

The uptake of water by atmospheric aerosols has a pronounced effect on particle light scattering properties, which in turn are strongly dependent on the ambient relative humidity (RH). Earth system models need to account for the aerosol water uptake and its influence on light scattering in order to properly capture the overall radiative effects of aerosols. Here we present a comprehensive model–measurement evaluation of the particle light scattering enhancement factor f(RH), defined as the particle light scattering coefficient at elevated RH (here set to 85 %) divided by its dry value. The comparison uses simulations from 10 Earth system models and a global dataset of surface-based in situ measurements. In general, we find a large diversity in the magnitude of predicted f(RH) amongst the different models, which can not be explained by the site types. Based on our evaluation of sea salt scattering enhancement and simulated organic mass fraction, there is a strong indication that differences in the model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are driving at least some of the observed diversity in simulated f(RH). Additionally, a key point is that defining dry conditions is difficult from an observational point of view and, depending on the aerosol, may influence the measured f(RH). The definition of dry also impacts our model evaluation, because several models exhibit significant water uptake between RH = 0 % and 40 %. The multisite average ratio between model outputs and measurements is 1.64 when RH = 0 % is assumed as the model dry RH and 1.16 when RH = 40 % is the model dry RH value. The overestimation by the models is believed to originate from the hygroscopicity parameterizations at the lower RH range which may not implement all phenomena taking place (i.e., not fully dried particles and hysteresis effects). This will be particularly relevant when a location is dominated by a deliquescent aerosol such as sea salt. Our results emphasize the need to consider the measurement conditions in such comparisons and recognize that measurements referred to as dry may not be dry in model terms. Recommendations for future model–measurement evaluation and model improvements are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-time cure monitoring of fiber-reinforced polymer composites using infrared thermography and recursive Bayesian filtering

Despite the desirable characteristics of fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) composites, their utilization in high volume production industries is limited by a lack of efficient manufacturing techniques. Monitoring the curing process of these composites can help with improving the quality and efficiency of the manufacturing process. This article discusses a method that uses Kalman-filter-based fusion of the information obtained from infrared thermography (surface temperature measurements) and a heat conduction model to estimate degrees of cure and internal temperatures of curing FRP composite parts in real time. The effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by successfully monitoring the curing of an FRP composite part in a laboratory experiment. Finally, the proposed methodology is a crucial step towards identifying anomalies in the curing process that negatively impact the quality of FRP composite parts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recent Progress on Surface Water Quality Models Utilizing Machine Learning Techniques

Surface waterbodies are heavily exposed to pollutants caused by natural disasters and human activities. Empowering sensor technologies in water quality monitoring, sufficient measurements have become available to develop machine learning (ML) models. Numerous ML models have quickly been adopted to predict water quality indicators in various surface waterbodies. This paper reviews 78 recent articles from 2022 to October 2024, categorizing water quality models utilizing ML into three groups: Point-to-Point (P2P), which estimates the current target value based on other measurements at the same time point; Sequence-to-Point (S2P), which utilizes previous time series data to predict the target value at one time point ahead; and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S), which uses previous time series data to forecast sequential target values in the future. The ML models used in each group are classified and compared according to water quality indicators, data availability, and model performance. Widely used strategies for improving performance, including feature engineering, hyperparameter tuning, and transfer learning, are recognized and described to enhance model effectiveness. The interpretability limitations of ML applications are discussed. This review provides a perspective on emerging ML for surface water quality models.

machine learning (ML)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dual frequency comb spectroscopy of solid fuel pyrolysis and combustion: Quantifying the influence of moisture content in Douglas fir

As the fire research community develops multi-scale models to predict the spread of wildland fires, there is a need for well-controlled, small-scale experiments which provide benchmark data and fundamental understanding of the effects of key parameters on the combustion of wildland fuels. Here, we implement a unique suite of non-intrusive, quantitative diagnostics that simultaneously measure mass loss, surface temperature, in situ gas temperature and water vapor concentration, including the first implementation of dual frequency comb spectroscopy for the study of solid fuels. As a demonstration, we examine the effect of fuel moisture content on the burning of Douglas fir wood samples that are ignited under constant radiative heat flux from a cone calorimeter to provide benchmark data for multi-scale models. Peak flame temperatures 3 mm above the sample surface measured with the dual frequency comb laser spectrometer are in excess of 1200 K. The flame temperature decreases by over 150 K as fuel moisture content increases from 0.7% to 40%. This work demonstrates a platform for simultaneous, quantitative measurements of well-controlled small-scale experiments which provide benchmark data for the development of advanced modeling and simulations capable of capturing the complex physics present in wildland fire systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Terrestrial Dissolved Organic Carbon Loading to Western Arctic Rivers

The mobilization and land-to-ocean transfer of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Arctic watersheds is intricately linked with the region's climate and water cycle, and furthermore at risk of changes from climate warming and associated impacts. This study quantifies model-simulated estimates of runoff, surface and active layer leachate DOC concentrations and loadings to western Arctic rivers, specifically for basins that drain into coastal waters between and including the Yukon and Mackenzie Rivers. Model validation leverages data from other field measurements, synthesis studies, and modeling efforts. The simulations effectively quantify DOC leaching in surface and subsurface runoff and broadly capture the seasonal cycle in DOC concentration and mass loadings reported from other studies that use river-based measurements. A marked east-west gradient in simulated spring and summer DOC concentrations of 24 drainage basins on the North Slope of Alaska is captured by the modeling, consistent with independent data derived from river sampling. Simulated loadings for the Mackenzie and Yukon show reasonable agreement with estimates of DOC export for annual totals and four of the six seasonal comparisons. Nearly equivalent loading occurs to rivers which drain north to the Beaufort Sea and west to the Bering and Chukchi Seas. The modeling framework provides a basis for understanding carbon export to coastal waters and for assessing impacts of hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw with ongoing warming in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Use of Rig Parameter Data in Bit Constraint Models for Improved Drilling Performance at The Geysers

Surface parameter measurements are routinely used during deep well construction to monitor and guide drilling conditions for improved performance and reduced costs. However, these measurements are of reduced value without a standard to aid in evaluation and decision making. A method is demonstrated whereby drill bit constraint models are used to interpret drilling response parameters. Drill rig parameter data for well GDC-36 at the Geysers Geothermal Field Power were acquired by Geysers Power Company and drilling contractor Kenai Drilling using Pason US DataHub and evaluated. Drilling parameters are evaluated using laboratory-validated rock reduction models for predicting the phenomenological response of drag bits (Detournay and Defourny, 1992) along with other model constraints in computational algorithms. The method is used to evaluate overall bit performance, monitor bit integrity, and detect the presence of drillstring vibrations and other conditions contributing to bit failure; comparisons are made to observations of bit wear and damage. The method will be applied in real-time to improve decision-making on subsequent wells and has applicability to development of advanced analytics on future geothermal wells using real-time electronic drilling recorder (EDR) data for improved performance and reduced drilling costs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probing surface-adsorbate interactions through active particle dynamics

Adsorbate molecules present in a reaction mixture may bind to and block catalytic sites. Measurement of the surface coverage of these molecules via adsorption isotherms is critical for modeling and design of catalytic reactions on surfaces. However, it is challenging to measure isotherms in solution in a way that is directly relevant to catalytic activity under reaction conditions, particularly since adsorbates may bind with an enormous range of surface affinity parameters. Here we used the motion of self-propelled catalytic Janus particles, which employ the decomposition of hydrogen peroxide fuel as a propulsion mechanism, to determine the effective surface coverage of thioglycerol, furfural, and ethanol on a platinum surface as a function of concentration in aqueous solution by measuring the decrease in active motion due to the blocking of active sites. For strongly adsorbing thioglycerol, this effective coverage was compared and contrasted to the total adsorbed amount measured using inductively-coupled plasma analysis. Demonstrating the broad applicability of this approach, the surface affinity of the three adsorbates spanned more than four orders of magnitude. For each species, the adsorbate-mediated attenuation of active motion occurred over a wide concentration range and was well-described by a Langmuir isotherm. The strongly interacting thioglycerol had the highest affinity towards the surface (K a = 15.5 ± 4.3 mM –1 ) and fully deactivated the active particle motion at surface saturation. Furfural had an intermediate affinity (K a = 0.42 ± 0.07 mM –1 ) but did not fully block H 2 O 2 access to the surface at apparent saturation, consistent with a maximum fractional surface coverage of θ max = 0.67. Ethanol exhibited even lower affinity (K a = 0.0025 ± 2x10 -4 mM –1 ) and its coverage saturated at only θ max = 0.38. Analysis of isotherms at elevated temperatures enabled direct extraction of the enthalpies of adsorption. The degree of surface coverage at adsorbate saturation appeared to correlate with the relative energies of adsorption for the different adsorbate species and was consistent with adsorbate saturation of one of multiple active site populations towards H 2 O 2 decomposition. Furthermore, computational investigations into solvent effects on furfural adsorption showed good quantitative agreement with the experimental results. This work leverages unique properties of active particles to explore fundamental catalysis questions and demonstrates a novel paradigm for significant and experimentally accessible multidisciplinary research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of Hole-Drilling Residual Stress Measurements in Workpieces of Various Thickness

A recent revision to the ASTM E837 standard for near-surface residual stress measurement by the hole-drilling method describes a new thickness-dependent stress calculation procedure applicable to “thin” and “intermediate” workpieces for which strain versus depth response depends on workpiece thickness. This new calculation procedure differs from that of the prior standard, which applies only to thick workpieces with strain versus depth response independent of thickness. Herein we assess the new calculation procedures by performing hole-drilling residual stress measurements in samples with a range of thickness. Near-surface residual stress is measured in a thick aluminum plate containing near-surface residual stress from a uniform shot peening treatment, and in samples of different thickness removed from the plate at the peened surface. A finite element (FE) model is used to assess consistency between measured residual stress across the range of sample thickness. Measured residual stress varies with sample thickness, with thinner samples exhibiting smaller near-surface compressive stress and a larger gradient of subsurface stress. These trends are consistent with both observed bending (curvature) of the removed samples and the trend in FE-calculated expected residual stress. The measured and expected residual stresses are in good agreement for samples of intermediate thickness, but the agreement decreases with sample thickness. Measured residual stress is invariant with gage circle diameter. The new thickness-dependent stress calculation procedure for hole-drilling provides meaningful improvement compared to thick-workpiece calculations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electron Beam Infrared Nano-Ellipsometry of Individual Indium Tin Oxide Nanocrystals

Leveraging recent advances in electron energy monochromation and aberration correction, we record the spatially resolved infrared plasmon spectrum of individual tin-doped indium oxide nanocrystals using electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS). Both surface and bulk plasmon responses are measured as a function of tin doping concentration from 1–10 atomic percent. Furthermore, these results are compared to theoretical models, which elucidate the spectral detuning of the same surface plasmon resonance feature when measured from aloof and penetrating probe geometries. We additionally demonstrate a unique approach to retrieving the fundamental dielectric parameters of individual semiconductor nanocrystals via EELS. This method, devoid from ensemble averaging, illustrates the potential for electron-beam ellipsometry measurements on materials that cannot be prepared in bulk form or as thin films.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the estimation of boundary layer heights: a machine learning approach

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer height (zi) is a key parameter used in atmospheric models for estimating the exchange of heat, momentum, and moisture between the surface and the free troposphere. Near-surface atmospheric and subsurface properties (such as soil temperature, relative humidity, etc.) are known to have an impact on zi. Nevertheless, precise relationships between these surface properties and zi are less well known and not easily discernible from the multi-year dataset. Machine learning approaches, such as random forest (RF), which use a multi-regression framework, help to decipher some of the physical processes linking surface-based characteristics to zi. In this study, a 4-year dataset from 2016 to 2019 at the Southern Great Plains site is used to develop and test a machine learning framework for estimating zi. Parameters derived from Doppler lidars are used in combination with over 20 different surface meteorological measurements as inputs to a RF model. The model is trained using radiosonde-derived zi values spanning the period from 2016 through 2018 and then evaluated using data from 2019. Results from 2019 showed significantly better agreement with the radiosonde compared to estimates derived from a thresholding technique using Doppler lidars only. Noteworthy improvements in daytime zi estimates were observed using the RF model, with a 50 % improvement in mean absolute error and an R2 of greater than 85 % compared to the Tucker method zi. We also explore the effect of zi uncertainty on convective velocity scaling and present preliminary comparisons between the RF model and zi estimates derived from atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Secondary electron emission for reticulated carbon foam surfaces using direct measurements and spectroscopic analysis

This study investigates secondary electron emission (SEE) characteristics of reticulated foams using direct measurements and analytical modeling. Total SEE was quantified, revealing suppression of up to 44% in carbon foam structures compared to planar graphite surfaces. An optimal geometric configuration was identified and supported by analytical models. SEE angular dependence experiments showed diverse behaviors: fiber-like behavior and directional dependence for pore and ligaments on the mm scale, with fuzz-like characteristics when the foam features are between 10–100 µm. Electron energy analyzer measurements showed that carbon foams preferentially suppress inelastic backscattered electrons (BSEs) more so than true secondary electrons (SEs). The analysis indicated a larger fraction of low-energy SE generation in foams compared to flat surfaces due to increased emission from curved fiber ligaments and tertiary SEs from high-energy BSEs. These findings have implications for design and optimization of materials with tailored electron emission properties for applications like plasma-facing components, spacecraft materials, and accelerator surfaces.

Auger↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surface Deformation and Seismicity Linked to Fluid Injection in the Raton Basin

Abstract It is suggested that in addition to seismicity deep fluid injection may cause surface uplift and subsidence in oil and gas‐producing regions. This study uses the Raton Basin as an example to investigate the hydromechanical processes of surface uplift and subsidence during wastewater injection. The Raton Basin, in southern central Colorado and northern central New Mexico, has experienced wastewater injection related to coalbed methane and gas production starting in 1994. In this study, we estimate the extent and magnitude of total vertical deformation in the Raton Basin from 1994 to 2020 and incremental deformation between the years 2017 to 2020. Results indicate a modeled uplift as much as 15 cm occurring between 1994 and 2020. Between 2017 and 2020, up to 3 cm of uplift occurred, largely near the northwestern injection wells. Most modeled uplift between 1994 and 2020 occurred near the southern wells, where the greatest cumulative volume of wastewater was injected. However, modeled subsidence occurred around the southern and eastern wells between 2017 and 2020, after the rate of injection decreased. Modeling indicates that while the magnitude of modeled uplift corresponds to cumulative injection volume and maximum rate in the long‐term, short‐term incremental deformation (uplift or subsidence) is controlled by changes in the rate of injection. The number of yearly earthquake events follows periods of rapid modeled uplifting throughout the Basin, suggesting that measurable surface deformation may be caused by the same injection‐induced pore pressure perturbations that initiate seismicity.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

A new woven composite constitutive model validated by shock wave experiments

In this paper, we present results of plate impact simulations of shock compressed woven glass fiber-reinforced plastic (GRP) performed using the Arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian three-dimensional finite element code. A hyperelastic large-strain-based empirical Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) formulation is employed to describe damage initiation and growth in the shock-compressed GRP. The model parameters calibration scheme utilizes the Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector normal particle velocity measurements at the free surface of the GRP target plates. The impact velocity in the experiments ranged from 8.5 to 418 m/s. The finite element model considered planar 0°/90° bidirectional plies with an individual ply thickness of 0.68 mm, stacked to reach a total laminate thickness of 6.8 mm. The anisotropic elastic strains were estimated from the experimentally determined tetragonal symmetry stiffness matrix for the GRP. The strain-based damage model captures several salient features observed in the measured free surface particle wave profiles, including the shock rise time, onset of Elastic—Elastic Cracking, and the shape of the nonlinear portion of the experimental particle velocity profiles. Furthermore, the CDM model predicts the dominant damage mode to be matrix microcracking due to shear and the associated bulk expansion (bulking) under the global compressive loading in the plate impact configuration.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

High–Resolution Maps of Near–Surface Permafrost for Three Watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Derived From Machine Learning

Permafrost soils are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and are locally important because they regulate the hydrologic flux from uplands to rivers. Furthermore, degradation of permafrost soils causes land surface subsidence, damaging infrastructure that is crucial for local communities. Regional and hemispherical maps of permafrost are too coarse to resolve distributions at a scale relevant to assessments of infrastructure stability or to illuminate geomorphic impacts of permafrost thaw. Here we train machine learning models to generate meter–scale maps of near–surface permafrost for three watersheds in the discontinuous permafrost region. The models were trained using ground truth determinations of near–surface permafrost presence from measurements of soil temperature and electrical resistivity. We trained three classifiers: extremely randomized trees (ERTr), support vector machines (SVM), and an artificial neural network (ANN). Model uncertainty was determined using k–fold cross validation, and the modeled extents of near–surface permafrost were compared to the observed extents at each site. At–a–site near–surface permafrost distributions predicted by the ERTr produced the highest accuracy (70%–90%). However, the transferability of the ERTr to the sites outside of the training data set was poor, with accuracies ranging from 50% to 77%. The SVM and ANN models had lower accuracies for at–a–site prediction (70%–83%), yet they had greater accuracy when transferred to the non–training site (62%–78%). These models demonstrate the potential for integrating high–resolution spatial data and machine learning models to develop maps of near–surface permafrost extent at resolutions fine enough to assess infrastructure vulnerability and landscape morphology influenced by permafrost thaw.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗