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NASA NTRS2020

Cluster Analysis of Thermal Icequakes Using the Seismometer to Investigate Ice and Ocean Structure (SIIOS): Implications for Ocean World Seismology

Ocean Worlds are of high interest to the planetary community due to the potential habitability of their subsurface oceans. Over the next few decades several missions will be sent to ocean worlds including the Europa Clipper, Dragonfly, and possibly a Europa lander. The Dragonfly and Europa lander missions will carry seismic payloads tasked with detecting and locating seismic sources. The Seismometer to Investigate Ice and Ocean Structure (SIIOS) is a NASA PSTAR funded project that investigates ocean world seismology using terrestrial analogs. The goals of the SIIOS experiment include quantitatively comparing flight-candidate seismometers to traditional instruments, comparing single-station approaches to a small-aperture array, and characterizing the local seismic environment of our field sites. Here we present an analysis of detected local events at our field sites at Gulkana Glacier in Alaska and in Northwest Greenland approximately 80 km North of Qaanaaq, Greenland. Both field sites passively recorded data for about two weeks. We deployed our experiment on Gulkana Glacier in September 2017 and in Greenland in June 2018. At Gulkana there was a nearby USGS weather station which recorded wind data. Temperature data was collected using the MERRA satellite. In Greenland we deployed our own weather station to collect temperature and wind data. Gulkana represents a noisier and more active environment. Temperatures fluctuated around 0°C, allowing for surface runoff to occur during the day. The glacier had several moulins, and during deployment we heard several rockfalls from nearby mountains. In addition to the local environment, Gulkana is located close to an active plate boundary (relative to Greenland). This meant that there were more regional events recorded over two weeks, than in Greenland. Greenland’s local environment was also quieter, and less active. Temperatures remained below freezing. The Greenland ice was much thicker than Gulkana (~850 m versus ~100 m) and our stations were above a subglacial lake. Both conditions can reduce event detections from basal motion. Lastly, we encased our Greenland array in an aluminum vault and buried it beneath the surface unlike our array in Gulkana where the instruments were at the surface and covered with plastic bins. The vault further insulated the array from thermal and atmospheric events.

Marusiak, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Anticipated Improvements to Net Surface Freshwater Fluxes from GPM

Evaporation and precipitation over the oceans play very important roles in the global water cycle, upper-ocean heat budget, ocean dynamics, and coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics. In the conventional representation of the terrestrial water cycle, the assumed role of the oceans is to act as near-infinite reservoirs of water with the main drivers of the water cycle being land- atmosphere interactions in which excess precipitation (P) over evaporation (E) is returned to the oceans as surface runoff and baseflow. Whereas this perspective is valid for short space and time scales -- fundamental principles, available observed estimates, and results from models indicate that the oceans play a far more important role in the large-scale water cycle at seasonal and longer timescales. Approximately 70-80% of the total global evaporation and precipitation occurs over oceans. Moreover, latent heat release into the atmosphere over the oceans is the major heat source driving global atmospheric circulations, with the moisture transported by circulations from oceans to continents being the major source of water precipitating over land. Notably, the major impediment in understanding and modeling the oceans role in the global water cycle is the lack of reliable net surface freshwater flux estimates (E - P fluxes) at the salient spatial and temporal resolutions, i.e., consistent coupled weekly to monthly E - P gridded datasets.

Smith, Eric A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Phosphorus availability and leaching losses in annual and perennial cropping systems in an upper US Midwest landscape

Abstract Excessive phosphorus (P) applications to croplands can contribute to eutrophication of surface waters through surface runoff and subsurface (leaching) losses. We analyzed leaching losses of total dissolved P (TDP) from no-till corn, hybrid poplar ( Populus nigra X P. maximowiczii ), switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ), miscanthus ( Miscanthus giganteus ), native grasses, and restored prairie, all planted in 2008 on former cropland in Michigan, USA. All crops except corn (13 kg P ha −1 year −1 ) were grown without P fertilization. Biomass was harvested at the end of each growing season except for poplar. Soil water at 1.2 m depth was sampled weekly to biweekly for TDP determination during March–November 2009–2016 using tension lysimeters. Soil test P (0–25 cm depth) was measured every autumn. Soil water TDP concentrations were usually below levels where eutrophication of surface waters is frequently observed (> 0.02 mg L −1 ) but often higher than in deep groundwater or nearby streams and lakes. Rates of P leaching, estimated from measured concentrations and modeled drainage, did not differ statistically among cropping systems across years; 7-year cropping system means ranged from 0.035 to 0.072 kg P ha −1 year −1 with large interannual variation. Leached P was positively related to STP, which decreased over the 7 years in all systems. These results indicate that both P-fertilized and unfertilized cropping systems may leach legacy P from past cropland management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Intensive agricultural management‐induced subsurface accumulation of labile phosphorus in Midwestern agricultural soils dominated by tile lines

Abstract In addition to surface runoff, subsurface P loss through tile lines in agricultural lands has received attention over the last decade. It is not clearly understood how this strong ligand, phosphate, is distributed in subsoils (≤180 cm), contributing to subsurface P loss. We hypothesized that subsurface accumulation of labile P as a result of long‐term intensive agricultural management contributes to subsurface P loss. The depth sequence distribution of P and its speciation and reactivity were investigated in tile‐line‐dominated Midwestern agricultural fields via chemical extraction and digestion, batch desorption experiments, and X‐ray absorption near‐edge structure spectroscopy. The results suggest that labile P in subsoils exceeds the eutrophication‐inducing level (>0.01 mg L –1 ). Because of intensive agricultural management, total P was ∼400 mg kg –1 in surface soils and ∼200‐300 mg kg –1 in subsoils. The depth sequence distribution of P indicated the translocation of P to subsoils. Although phosphate and phytic acid adsorbed by Al or Fe (oxyhydro)oxides and calcite were found in surface soils, phosphate adsorbed to calcite, hydroxyapatite, or both were the dominant P species in subsoils. Phosphate was highest in surface soils and decreased sharply with increasing depth. Slightly alkaline soil in subsoils suppressed the release of P but the process was continuous after 30 d. Subsurface P loss was influenced by the dissolution and desorption process of inorganic P phases and preferentially transported P from surface soils. Subsurface P loss should be considered in strategies to reduce agricultural P loss in the Gulf of Mexico.

Xu, Suwei↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Impacts of Land-Cover Change on the Hydrologic Response to Hurricane Ida in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

Abstract The Lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) has experienced significant changes in land cover and is one of the most vulnerable regions to hurricanes in the United States. Here, we study the impacts of land-cover change on the hydrologic response to Hurricane Ida in LMRB. By using an integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model, Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model coupled with the three-dimensional ParFlow subsurface flow model (ELM-ParFlow), we simulate the effects of land-cover change on the flood volume and peak timing induced by rainfall from Hurricane Ida. The results show that land-cover changes from 1850 to 2015, which resulted in a smoother surface and less vegetation, exacerbated both flood peak time and volume induced by Hurricane Ida. The effects of land-cover changes can be decomposed into two mechanisms: a smoother surface routes more water faster to a watershed outlet and less vegetation allows more water to contribute to surface runoff. By comparing scenarios in which the two mechanisms were isolated, we found that changes in soil moisture due to vegetation cover change have more dominant effects on floods in the southern part and changes in Manning’s coefficient have the largest effect on floods in the northern part of the LMRB. The study provides important insights into the complex relationship between land-use, land-cover, and hydrologic processes in coastal regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

Summer Greenland Blocking Diversity and Its Impact on the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface runoff since the turn of the century has been linked to a rise in Greenland blocking frequency. However, a range of synoptic patterns can be considered blocked flow and efforts that summarize all blocking types indiscriminately likely fail to capture consequential differences in GrIS response. To account for these differences, we employ ERA5 reanalysis to identify summer blocking using two independent blocking metrics: the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) and the blocking index of Pelly and Hoskins (2003, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<0743:ANPOB>2.0.CO;2). We then conduct a self-organizing map analysis to objectively classify synoptic conditions during Greenland blocking episodes and identify three primary blocking types: (a) a high-amplitude Omega block, (b) a lower-amplitude, stationary summer ridge, and (c) a cyclonic wave breaking pattern. Using Modèle Atmosphérique Régional output, we document the spatiotemporal progression of the surface energy and mass balance for each blocking type. Relative to all blocking episodes, summer ridge patterns produce more melt over the southern ice sheet, Omega blocks produce more melt across the northern ice sheet, and cyclonic wave breaking patterns produce more melt in northeast Greenland. Our results indicate that the recent trend in summer Greenland blocking was largely driven by an increase in Omega patterns and suggest that Omega blocks have played a central role in the recent acceleration of GrIS mass loss. Furthermore, the GBI exhibited a relative bias toward Omega patterns, which may help explain why it has measured stronger trends in summer Greenland blocking than other blocking metrics.

atmospheric blocking↗

NASA NTRS2023

A Data Set of Monthly Freshwater Fluxes From the Greenland Ice Sheet’s Marine-Terminating Glaciers on A Glacier–Basin Scale 2010–2020

The loss of mass from the Greenland ice sheet causes an increasing influx of freshwater to the Greenlandic fjords and the oceans. Freshwater fluxes from marine-terminating glaciers are important to understand fjord circulation and ecosystem dynamics. Here, we present a data set constructed by reformulating existing products into a shared temporal and spatial framework. We combine three publicly available data sets of solid-ice discharge (iceberg), liquid-surface runoff (runoff) and basal melt to present a cohesive overview of the flow of freshwater from marine-terminating glaciers to the Greenlandic fjords. We also calculate glacier drainage basins and compare our findings to previous studies showing that drainage-basin sizes may vary considerably depending on how they were reconstructed. The data set will be a valuable asset to oceanographic, glaciological and marine biological research activities.

Ice mass loss↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Comparative Study of Available Water in the Major River Basins of the World

Numerous large river basins of the world have few and irregular observations of the components of the terrestrial hydrological cycle with the exception of stream gauges at a few locations and at the outlet along with sparsely distributed rain gauges. Using observations from satellite sensors and output from global land surface models, it is possible to study these under-observed river basins. With populations greater than a billion people, some of these rivers (e.g., the Ganga-Brahmaputra, the Yangtze, the Nile and the Mekong) are the economic engines of the countries they transect, yet thorough assessment of their flow dynamics and variability in regard to water resource management is still lacking. In this paper, we use soil moisture (0-2m) and surface runoff from the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), evapotranspiration, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and total water storage anomaly from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to examine variability of individual water balance components. To this end, understanding the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability and the spatial variability of the water balance components in the major river basins of the world will help to plan for improved management of water resources for the future.

GLDAS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predicting river turbidity in Pine Island Bayou using machine learning techniques coupled with variational mode decomposition

Elevated turbidity levels pose significant public health risks by facilitating the transport of harmful pollutants, including metals, organic compounds, and pathogenic microorganisms into the surface water. These conditions create serious challenges for public recreational water use and drinking water treatment, leading to economic losses and health risks. This study utilizes water monitoring data in Pine Island Bayou, Texas, and develops a Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) model to predict turbidity using Attention-based Gated Recurrent Units with Encoder-Decoder (AT-GRU-ED) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), coupled with Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD). Compared to the model without VMD, the model demonstrates satisfactory 72-hour turbidity prediction performance, achieving MAEs of 2.60 and 3.29 NTU (reductions of 53% and 58%), RMSEs of 21.08 and 31.49 NTU (reductions of 82% and 80%), and R² values of 0.96 and 0.84 on the validation and test sets, respectively. Feature importance analysis reveals that water temperature is the dominant factor influencing seasonal turbidity patterns, while real-time hourly rainfall significantly contributes to short-term variability. Turbidity typically peaks within 48 hours after rainfall events due to lagged effects from surface runoff and upstream flow. Findings suggest suspending recreational water use and water supply pumping for three days after heavy rainfall can benefit public health and improve water treatment processes. Discharges above 100 m3/s are found to accelerate sediment dilution and transport, reducing turbidity levels more quickly after the peak. In conclusion, the proposed model demonstrates reliable 72-hour turbidity prediction, supporting decision-making for water treatment plant operations and providing early warning for public recreational water use.

Deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Groundwater Circulation Within the Mountain Block: Combining Flow and Transport Models With Magnetotelluric Observations to Untangle Its Nested Nature

Abstract Mountains are vital water sources for humans and ecosystems, continuously replenishing lowland aquifers through surface runoff and mountain recharge. Quantifying these fluxes and their relative importance is essential for sustainable water resource management. However, our mechanistic understanding of the flow and transport processes determining the connection between the mountain block and the basin aquifer remains limited. Traditional conceptualizations assume groundwater circulation within the mountain block is predominantly shallow. This view neglects the role of deep groundwater flowpaths significantly contributing to the water, solute, and energy budgets. Overcoming these limitations requires a holistic characterization of the multiscale nature of groundwater flow along the mountain‐to‐valley continuum. As a proof‐of‐concept, we use a coupled groundwater flow and transport model to design a series of numerical experiments that explore the role of geology, topography, and weathering rates in groundwater circulation and their resulting resistivity patterns. Our results show that accumulating solutes near stagnation zones create contrasting electrical resistivity patterns that separate local, intermediate, and regional flow cells, presenting a target for magnetotelluric observations. To demonstrate the sensitivity of magnetotelluric data to features in our resistivity models, we use the MARE2DEM electromagnetic modeling code to perform forward and inverse simulations. This study highlights the potential of magnetotelluric surveys to image the resistivity structure resulting from multiscale groundwater circulation through relatively impervious crystalline basement rocks in mountainous terrains. This capability could change our understanding of the critical zone, offering a holistic perspective that includes deep groundwater circulation and its role in conveying solutes and energy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Wind‐Moisture Characteristics in Shaping Atmospheric River Flood Hazards

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are key drivers of extreme precipitation in the Western U.S. Using regionally downscaled thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations, we examine how ARs with varying wind and moisture characteristics respond to warming. We classified 812 historical AR events into Gusty-Wet, Gusty-Dry, Calm-Wet, and Calm-Dry groups to evaluate differences in precipitation behavior. ARs with stronger winds and higher moisture content exhibit higher precipitation efficiency (PE) and greater integrated water vapor (IWV). Regionally, Calm ARs show higher IWV accumulation due to slower inland transport and reduced PE. Projections indicate increases in storm-total (sub-Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling) and maximum 3-hourly precipitation (super-CC scaling) across all groups, with the most pronounced changes in Gusty-Wet and Calm-Wet ARs. Spatial differences in surface runoff, PE, and inland reach highlight the importance of AR subtype in shaping future flood hazards. These results offer insights into event-level and regional-scale precipitation changes under evolving environmental conditions.

Zhou, Yang [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Diminishing marginal effect in estimating the dissolved organic carbon export from a watershed

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) can be initially moved from soils to inland waters with surface runoff, and then mineralized, buried, or eventually delivered to the coastal ocean. This land-to-ocean phase of the DOC flux must be accounted for to comprehensively understand the global carbon cycle. To estimate the terrestrial-aquatic DOC leaching, calculating the product of the riverine DOC concentration and the corresponding river discharge measured at the watershed outlet is a common method. However, it is challenging to frequently and exactly record riverine DOC concentrations, thus the relationship between DOC concentrations and discharges (C-Q relationship) are established and used to interpolate the time-series of DOC concentrations. We found that the widely used time-dependent and time-independent C-Q regression models are weak in representing their altered relationship when the discharge is extremely high, which was named as diminishing marginal effect. In this study, we evaluated the performance of two C-Q regression models and discussed possible reasons for the diminishing marginal effect. We suggest that repeated and long-term measurements of the DOC concentration are required to adequately analyze their relationships, especially during the early spring and seasons with heavy precipitations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Biochar-compost-based controlled-release nitrogen fertilizer intended for an active microbial community

Nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture suffer losses by volatilization of N to the air, surface runoff and leaching into the soil, resulting in low N use efficiency (NUE) (< 50%) and raising severe environmental pollutions. Controlled- release nitrogen fertilizers (CRNFs) can control the release of N nutrients to NUE in crop production. Different methods were used to develop new CRNFs. However, different CRNF technologies are still underdeveloped due to inadequate controlling on N releasing time and/or unsustainable diffusion. The study on the influences of CRNF processing parameters on microbial conditions are lacking when the CRNFs composed of various bio-ingredients such as biochar, composts, and biowaste. The complexity of processing methods, material biodegradability, and other physical properties make current CRNFs of questionable value in agricultural production. This research aims to develop a novel biochar-compost-based controlled-release urea fertilizer (BCRUF) to preserve microbial properties carried by the compost. The BCRUF was synthesized by pelletizing the 50:50 (dry, wt/wt) mixture of biochar and compost. BCRUF was loaded with urea and then spray-coated with polylactic acid (PLA). The releasing time of two types of BCRUFs, coated and uncoated with PLA, for 80% of N release in water was up to 6 h at three different temperatures (4, 23, and 40 °C), compared to conventional urea fertilizer and commercial environmentally smart N (ESN) fertilizer. The releasing time of coated BCRUF for 80% N release in soil was up to 192 h (8 days). Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) analysis revealed that no new functional groups were found in the release solution, indicating no new chemical hazards generated. The differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) tests also verified that its thermal stability could be up to 160 °C. The microbe populations in the BCRUF pellets were reduced after the pelleting and drying processes in BCRUF fabrication, but a few bacteria can endure in the air-drying process. BCRUF pellets soaked in water for 4 days retained some bacteria. The BCRUF showed very promising characteristics to improve NUE and sustainability in agricultural production.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Watershed response of the Feather River Basin, California, United States of America to future climate changes

Increasing mean annual temperatures under climate change are expected to reduce seasonal snowpack, increase evapotranspiration (ET), and alter summer baseflow in headwater watersheds worldwide. Strong regional variability in hydrologic responses highlights the need for catchment-scale, physically based models to assess future flood risk and water availability. This study examines climate-driven changes in the hydrologic response of the Upper Feather River watershed in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. Four priority climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to evaluate future hydrologic responses of the watershed. Hydrologic processes are simulated using an objectively calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model for a historical baseline (1986–2005) and a future period 2070–2099), driven by observed and projected precipitation and temperature. Results indicate a declining contribution of snowfall to annual precipitation, with peak snowfall and water yield shifting 1–3 months earlier. Long-term annual maximum flows are projected to increase considerably, whereas low-flow responses are mixed, with both increases and decreases projected by the end of the century. These findings highlight the need for adaptive watershed management to enhance flood protection, water storage, and drought resilience. Future water resource planning should also account for one-to-three-month shifts in peak water yield and surface runoff due to changes in snowmelt timing and a lower snowfall-to-rainfall ratio under climate change. The modeling framework and insights are transferable to other snow-dominated headwater watersheds experiencing climate-driven change.

Tigabu, T [UC Davis]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Annual Environmental Report 2019

The purposes of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Environmental Report 2019 are to record LLNL's compliance with environmental standards and requirements, describe LLNL’s environmental protection and remediation programs, and present the results of environmental monitoring at the two LLNL sites—the Livermore Site and Site 300. The report is prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by LLNL’s Environmental Functional Area. Submittal of the report satisfies requirements under DOE Order 231.1B, “Environment, Safety and Health Reporting,” and DOE Order 458.1, “Radiation Protection of the Public and Environment.” The report begins with an executive summary, which provides the purpose of the report and an overview of LLNL’s compliance and monitoring results. The first three chapters provide background information: Chapter 1 is an overview of the location, meteorology, and hydrogeology of the two LLNL sites; Chapter 2 is a summary of LLNL’s compliance with environmental regulations; and Chapter 3 is a description of LLNL’s environmental programs with an emphasis on the Environmental Management System including pollution prevention. The majority of the report covers LLNL’s environmental monitoring programs and monitoring data for 2019: effluent and ambient air monitoring and dose assessment (Chapter 4); waters, including wastewater, storm water runoff, surface water, rain, and groundwater (Chapter 5); and terrestrial, including soil, sediment, vegetation, foodstuff, ambient radiation, and special status wildlife and plants (Chapter 6). The remaining two chapters discuss LLNL’s groundwater remediation program (Chapter 7), and quality assurance for the environmental monitoring programs (Chapter 8). Complete monitoring data, which are summarized in the body of the report, are provided in Appendix A.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Environmental Report 2021

The purposes of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Environmental Report 2021 are to record Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL’s) compliance with environmental standards and requirements, describe LLNL’s environmental protection and remediation programs, and present the results of environmental monitoring at the two LLNL sites—the Livermore Site and Site 300. The report is prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by LLNL’s Environmental Functional Area. Submittal of the report satisfies requirements under DOE Order 231.1B, “Environment, Safety and Health Reporting,” and DOE Order 458.1, “Radiation Protection of the Public and Environment.” The report is distributed electronically and is available at https://saer.llnl.gov/, the website for the LLNL annual environmental report. Previous LLNL annual environmental reports beginning with 1994 are also on the website. Some references in the electronic report text are underlined, which indicates that they are clickable links. Clicking on one of these links will open the related document, data workbook, or website. Sampling location maps throughout this report were created using ArcGIS® software by Esri. The report begins with an executive summary, which provides the purpose of the report and an overview of LLNL’s compliance and monitoring results. The first three chapters provide background information: Chapter 1 is an overview of the location, meteorology, and hydrogeology of the two LLNL sites; Chapter 2 is a summary of LLNL’s compliance with environmental regulations; and Chapter 3 is a description of LLNL’s environmental programs with an emphasis on the Environmental Management System including pollution prevention. The majority of the report covers LLNL’s environmental monitoring programs and monitoring data for 2021: effluent and ambient air monitoring and dose assessment (Chapter 4); waters, including wastewater, storm water runoff, surface water, rain, and groundwater (Chapter 5); and terrestrial, including soil, sediment, vegetation, foodstuff, ambient radiation, and special status wildlife and plants (Chapter 6). The remaining two chapters discuss LLNL’s groundwater remediation program (Chapter 7), and quality assurance for the environmental monitoring programs (Chapter 8). Complete monitoring data, which are summarized in the body of the report, are provided in Appendix A. The report uses Système International units, consistent with the federal Metric Conversion Act of 1975 and Executive Order 12770, “Metric Usage in Federal Government Programs” (1991). For ease of comparison to environmental reports issued prior to 1991, dose values and many radiological measurements are given in both metric and U.S. customary units. A conversion table is provided in the glossary. The report is the responsibility of LLNL’s Environmental Functional Area. Monitoring data were obtained through the combined efforts of the Environmental Functional Area; Environmental Restoration Department; Physical and Life Sciences Environmental Monitoring Radiological Laboratory; and the Radiation Protection Functional Area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Performance assessment for climate intervention (PACI): preliminary application to a stratospheric aerosol injection scenario

As the prospect of exceeding global temperature targets set forth in the Paris Agreement becomes more likely, methods of climate intervention are increasingly being explored. With this increased interest there is a need for an assessment process to understand the range of impacts across different scenarios against a set of performance goals in order to support policy decisions. The methodology and tools developed for Performance Assessment (PA) for nuclear waste repositories shares many similarities with the needs and requirements for a framework for climate intervention. Using PA, we outline and test an evaluation framework for climate intervention, called Performance Assessment for Climate Intervention (PACI) with a focus on Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI). We define a set of key technical components for the example PACI framework which include identifying performance goals, the extent of the system, and identifying which features, events, and processes are relevant and impactful to calculating model output for the system given the performance goals. Having identified a set of performance goals, the performance of the system, including uncertainty, can then be evaluated against these goals. Using the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) scenario, we develop a set of performance goals for monthly temperature, precipitation, drought index, soil water, solar flux, and surface runoff. The assessment assumes that targets may be framed in the context of risk-risk via a risk ratio, or the ratio of the risk of exceeding the performance goal for the SAI scenario against the risk of exceeding the performance goal for the emissions scenario. From regional responses, across multiple climate variables, it is then possible to assess which pathway carries lower risk relative to the goals. The assessment is not comprehensive but rather a demonstration of the evaluation of an SAI scenario. Future work is needed to develop a more complete assessment that would provide additional simulations to cover parametric and aleatory uncertainty and enable a deeper understanding of impacts, informed scenario selection, and allow further refinements to the approach.

climate intervention↗