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Gear Test Assembly - Experimental Testing and Analysis of Gears and Bearings - FY2026

The Gear Test Assembly (GTA) is an experimental test apparatus built and installed in the Mechanisms and Engineering Test Loop (METL) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). While designed to accommodate a variety of components intended for use in advanced compact in-vessel transfer machine, the focus of GTA been the testing of large radial spur gears. The performance of the components used in GTA motivates the choices made in the design, components, and material choices for the forthcoming METL test articles; the Gripper Test Assembly (GrTA), and the Bearing Test Assembly (BTA). To date, GTA has completed nine experimental testing campaigns and achieved over 21 million revolutions under prototypic sodium fast reactor loads and operating conditions. This report provides an overview and results for the two most recent experiments Campaign #8 and Campaign #9. `Campaign #8 was the first campaign to make use of a set of nickel alloy radial spur gears, made from Hastelloy C-22HS, and combined with heat-treated tapered roller bearings. The bearings and torque profile used allowed Campaign #8 to be directly compared with Campaign #1 where Inconel 718 gears were used instead. Campaign #8 attained 1,058,880 shaft revolutions within 23% of the 1,314,855 revolutions achieved in Campaign #1. These results demonstrate that the heat-treated tapered roller bearings show consistent increased lifetimes, approximately three times longer than for non heat-treated taper rollers, and that the particular material of the gear does not play a substantial role in performance. Similar to Campaign #7 where bearing failure resulted in fragmentation and transport of bearing material into the gear teeth led to tooth damage in the Inconel gears, a similar process led to the damage of the Hastelloy gears. Subsequent NDE analysis showed that the damage was only limited to the tooth surface and does not extend into the gear interiors. Based on the NDE reports, the Hastelloy gears can be reconditioned and put back into service for future campaigns as was done for the Inconel gears. Reconditioned Inconel 718 gears damaged in Campaign #7 were returned to service in Campaign #9 and paired with non heat-treated tapered roller bearings. In Campaign #9 a novel set of operating conditions were implemented whereby the gears and bearings were cycled between hot, submerged refueling conditions where fuel handling operations occurred and cold, dry, and inert conditions where the sodium was drained and the vessel was allowed to cool simulating long, ex-vessel storage of the fuel handling machine. A total of eight of these operating cycles were achieved before a bearing failure occurred after the accumulation of 475,692 shaft revolutions were achieved. During Campaign #9, one of the drive motors was damaged and over the course of a 240 day standby period, the entire GTA drive system was upgraded from a 480VAC system to a 240VAC system that provided the opportunity to consolidate wall-space in the METL facility and provide more space for additional test articles being installed in the coming year. The over 475,000 shaft revolutions achieved in Campaign #9 eclipses the previous record for lifetime of non heat-treated tapered roller bearings held by Campaign #3 of 392,000 shaft revolutions. Further analysis and future campaigns hope to shed light on the cause of this approximately 17% increase in lifetime.

42 ENGINEERING

Roadmap and Benchmarking: Privacy in Federated Load Forecasting

Data-driven techniques for energy demand forecasting continue to emerge with promising impacts on distribution grid planning. However, the development of robust and generalizable machine learning models requires that representative high quality training data are available. Distributed energy resources have begun to embed intelligence, gathering large amounts of data on customer demand, behavior, and household devices that are connected to the grid. Though utilities aggregate meter-level demand data for load shaping, demand response, outage management, reliability planning, and billing applications, there lies an inherent privacy concern in sharing consumption data that may identify individual consumer behavioral patterns. Hence, while sharing the data is crucial, the private sensitive customer data must be safeguarded from being exposed or manipulated. In this study, we propose a roadmap for implementing a based privacy preserving framework to support the advancement of data-driven analytics in data-sensitive distributed energy resources environments. The roadmap incorporates federated learning–a distributed training framework, differential privacy–a statistical framework that provides guarantees to safeguard the leakage of sensitive data, secure multiparty computation and homomorphic encryption– techniques for encrypting model gradients and applying secure aggregation on the server. Moreover, we perform baseline experiments on the federated short-term load forecasting (STLF) task using open-source residential load profile datasets, offering insights into the challenges of integrating differential privacy into federated learning.

Abebe, Waqwoya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN

Maintenance strategy, structural design, and site layout of the ST-E1 fusion power plant

An effective fusion reactor maintenance scheme enables safe operations and short downtimes. This in turn leads to high availability, which is critical to the commercial viability of a power-producing plant. In tokamak-based fusion power plants, the chosen maintenance approach has a significant impact on the spatial design of the tokamak, as well as the surrounding infrastructure, and therefore needs to be considered from the outset. Tokamak Energy has developed a pre-concept design of a fusion power plant, ST-E1. This work describes the major drivers and constraints that have been considered, presents the tokamak architecture and chosen maintenance regime, and discusses how this enables the plant’s two-phased approach to demonstrating commercial operations. It also shows the implications for the design of other systems areas, in particular the machine structural arrangement and bioshield and hot cell layout. The reactor core segmentation and removal scheme replaces entire toroidal segments radially through a large vacuum port, along a single axis only. The result is a change-tolerant machine and plant layout that can accommodate the evolving designs of the tokamak.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Numerical-heating effects in atmospheric pressure streamer discharges simulated with a PIC code

Artificial heating in plasma simulations is a well-known phenomenon which occurs when, among other things, the Debye length is poorly resolved by the simulation mesh. Here, in this work, the degree to which numerical-heating occurs during a simulation of a nanosecond atmospheric pressure streamer discharge is examined. The streamer is simulated using a two-dimensional finite-element, particle-in-cell code Empire, which uses direct simulation Monte Carlo for binary particle interactions. Initially, an estimate of the numerical-heating rate applied to Empire is performed using a simple plasma model. Second, a positive atmospheric pressure streamer discharge simulation is performed to study the effects of numerical heating on plasma density, electron temperature, and streamer velocity. The nominal Debye length is approximately 1 μm and the amount of numerical heating introduced in the simulation is varied by using mesh sizes ranging from 2 μm to 20 μm. A measurable numerical heating quantity is proposed that can be used to estimate the appropriate element size and quantify the numerical-heating that can be expected over the simulation time for an atmospheric pressure streamer. In conclusion while Δx/λ D violations can be an issue it is not likely to be an issue with streamer discharges that are temporally short and occur in environments where collision frequencies are high. This result validates the rationale of grid size choices for a large amount of previously published works where Δx/λ D violation was not clearly addressed. Primary finding of this work is that numerical heating is of minor concern for plasma simulations where electron–neutral collisions are numerous such that multiple collisions can occur within a single plasma period.

Nikic, Dejan [University of New Mexico, Albuquerqu

Adsorption, charge transfer and a coverage-driven transition of alkali metals on rutile TiO 2 (110)

The interaction of alkali metals with metal oxide surfaces is central to tuning surface reactivity in heterogeneous catalysis and photocatalysis. Here we present a comprehensive DFT+U study of the adsorption of alkali metals (Li, Na, K, Rb, Cs) on the (110) surface of rutile TiO 2 . At low coverage (θ = 1/8), all alkali metals bind preferentially to bridging oxygen sites with adsorption energies in the range −4.06 to −3.33 eV, transferring nearly one full electron (0.92–0.99 |e|) to the substrate and inducing Ti 4+ → Ti 3+ reduction. The excess charge localizes preferentially at subsurface Ti sites in the form of small polarons. Diffusion barriers indicate facile motion along bridging-oxygen rows, whereas inter-row hopping is strongly hindered. Coverage effects were examined systematically for potassium: adsorption energy and charge transfer per K atom decrease monotonically with increasing θ. Strikingly, a sharp energy discontinuity occurs between θ = 4/8 and θ = 5/8 (ΔE ≈ 1 eV per atom), which we identify as a coverage-driven structural transition arising from steric packing constraints and enhanced K–K electrostatic repulsion once every (1×1) surface cell is occupied. This structural transition perfectly correlates with a dramatic drop in the work function down to an ultra-low minimum of 0.84 eV at θ=5/8, followed by a metallization- driven recovery at higher coverages. Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations confirm zigzag K arrangements at moderate coverage (θ = 1/3), while at high coverage (θ = 2/3) short-range K–K correlations emerge without long-range order. These results provide atomistic insight into the structure–activity relationships underlying alkali promotion effects on oxide-supported catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Oxidation Chemistry of Bicarbonate and Peroxybicarbonate: Implications for Carbonate Management in Energy Storage

Carbonate formation presents a major challenge to energy storage applications based on low-temperature CO 2 electrolysis and recyclable metal–air batteries. While direct electrochemical oxidation of (bi)carbonate represents a straightforward route for carbonate management, knowledge of the feasibility and mechanisms of direct oxidation is presently lacking. Herein, we report the isolation and characterization of the bis(triphenylphosphine)iminium salts of bicarbonate and peroxybicarbonate, thus enabling the examination of their oxidation chemistry. Infrared spectroelectrochemistry combined with time-resolved infrared spectroscopy reveals that the photoinduced oxidation of HCO 3 – by an Ir(III) photoreagent results in the generation of the short-lived bicarbonate radical in less than 50 ns. The highly acidic bicarbonate radical undergoes proton transfer with HCO 3 – to furnish the carbonate radical anion and H 2 CO 3 , leading to the eventual release of CO 2 and H 2 O, thus accounting for the appearance of H 2 O and CO 2 in both electrochemical and photochemical oxidation experiments. Here, the back reaction of the carbonate radical subsequently oxidizes the Ir(II) photoreagent, leading to carbonate. In the absence of this back reaction, dimerization of the carbonate radical provides entry into peroxybicarbonate, which we show undergoes facile oxidation to O 2 and CO 2 . Together, the results reported identify tangible pathways for the design of catalysts for the management of carbonate in energy storage applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Process control-enabled mitigation of microstructural and plastic heterogeneities in additively manufactured Grade 91 steel

Synergizing wire arc-directed energy deposition (WA-DED) additive manufacturing (AM) with particle-strengthened creep strength-enhanced ferritic (CSEF) steels enables fabrication and repair of critical power-plant components. Investigations focused on fusion-welded particle-strengthened CSEF steels, such as Grade 91 steel, have linked microstructurally heterogeneous regions—forming due to heat affected zones (HAZ)—with premature failure during elevated temperature service. Fusion-based AM, including WA-DED, likewise generates microstructurally and plastically heterogeneous regions due to spatiotemporally varying thermokinetics during deposition. However, works investigating such microstructural heterogeneities, their implications for mechanical behavior, and strategies to mitigate their formation remain scarce. This work identifies microstructurally and plastically heterogeneous regions within the WA-DED-processed Grade 91 steel. Spatial microhardness variations in the as-fabricated specimen correlate with the variation in the attributes of grain, martensitic microstructure, and precipitates across the fusion zone and HAZ. Digital image correlation-enabled tensile tests performed at 500 °C revealed pronounced deformation localization and a wave-like strain distribution, with wavelength close to the melt pool depth, indicating susceptibility of the as-fabricated components to premature creep failure. Such heterogeneity in microstructural and mechanical behavior was attributed to recurring solid-state phase transformations. Subsequently, an interlayer temperature control strategy was implemented, wherein maintaining interlayer temperature above the martensitic start temperature mitigated the heterogeneous microstructural and plastic response in the as-fabricated condition. Findings open pathways to achieving deformation-localization- and creep-resistant microstructures in WA-DED fabricated particle-strengthened CSEF steel components, reducing reliance on post-welding heat treatments—conventionally required to enhance creep resistance—and enabling on-demand, short lead-time fabrication of next-generation power-plant components.

Heat affected zones

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Ion Transport and Crystal Rotation in Plastic Crystal Electrolytes Under Applied Electric Fields

Organic ionic plastic crystal electrolytes, containing a plastic crystal and lithium salt, offer a potential balance between mechanical and electrochemical properties for solid state lithium-ion battery electrolytes. These electrolytes contain multiple mobile ionic species (three or four), resulting in complex transport mechanisms which have not yet been established. Plastic crystals are defined by long-range positional order and short-range rotational disorder. It is therefore necessary to quantify changes in the local crystal structure of the electrolyte as current flows through it. Herein, we examine the electrochemical properties of pyrrolidinium-based plastic crystal electrolytes containing lithium salt and zwitterion additives, including measurements of current fraction and limiting current. We obtain species-specific insight into electrolyte transport using pulsed-field gradient nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and find that, while the zwitterion additive increases ionic conductivity, it decreases lithium diffusivity with respect to other ionic components. With operando spatiotemporally resolved wide-angle X-ray scattering we observe location-specific crystal rotations due to the passage of ionic current. In conclusion, we posit that reducing energy dissipation due to rotation is essential for using plastic crystal electrolytes in practical applications.

Yap, Kyra M. K. [University of California, Berkele

Revealing key structures for reversible sulfur redox in amorphous polymeric sulfur

Amorphous polymeric sulfur cathodes, such as sulfurized polyacrylonitrile (SPAN), enable high-energy lithium-sulfur batteries without cobalt or nickel, leveraging abundant sulfur. However, the limited in situ understanding of their synthesis and electrochemistry has impeded targeted optimization. Here, in this study, we integrate operando high-energy total scattering with sulfur K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy to monitor SPAN's formation and cycling in real time. Our results show that S-C bond formation halts further fusion of cyclized polyacrylonitrile, fostering π-π stacking and a transition from long-chain to short-chain sulfur-critical for reversible sulfur redox. These features synergistically minimize polysulfide dissolution and charge-transfer resistance, enabling optimized SPAN to achieve high capacity retention over 1,000 cycles. Operando X-ray absorption spectroscopy reveals that residual protons drive thiol-thione tautomerism, with lithium replacement during the first discharge causing ~20% irreversible capacity loss. To enhance performance, minimizing -NH groups and expanding pyridine networks are key. These findings transform SPAN optimization from empirical tuning to mechanism‑guided engineering and point the way towards sulfur loadings and energy densities competitive with state‑of‑the‑art Li‑ion cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Full ribosomal operon sequencing of anaerobic gut fungi (phylum Neocallimastigomycota ): insights on its markers and phylogenetic resolution

The phylogenetic affiliations of anaerobic gut fungi (Neocallimastigomycota) are typically evaluated using single-gene markers. However, this approach often fails to resolve relationships between closely related lineages. To address this issue and identify alternative markers, we created a curated database comprising the complete ribosomal operon sequences of 156 isolates, representing 20 of the 22 recognized genera and two new genus-level clades. Using long-read sequencing, we obtained ~9 kbp operon sequences and developed a robust analysis pipeline. Incorporating both coding genes and non-coding regions (excluding IGS1) improved phylogenetic resolution. This phylogenetic approach successfully resolved the Cyllamyces and Caecomyces clades (hard-to-distinguish genetically), as well as seven analysed Piromyces species. We also scanned the operon for markers that are suitable for short-read sequencing platforms, with the aim of enhancing biodiversity and phylogenetic studies. Notably, the ETS1 genetic region also enabled the distinction between these lineages, indicating its phylogenetic value within the ribosomal operon. The resulting database is a valuable resource for expanding and strengthening phylogenetic frameworks.

High-throughput sequencing

A Sensitivity-driven Wide Area Protection (SWAP) Coordination Tool for High Penetration of Inverter-based Resources (IBR)

Traditionally, power system generation sources have been composed of synchronous generators, of which the fault current behavior is understood with minimal differences between generation size and types due to the physics of their construction. Present protection schemes and modeling methods are based upon these understood characteristics. Most renewable generation is composed of inverter-based resources (IBR), in which fault current is determined by switching control software and hardware limitations, each of which can vary between manufacturers and even between models of the same manufacturer. The resulting fault current is low in magnitude, low in negative-sequence current, unpredictable phase angles, and is a challenge to model. These characteristics also result in a challenge to traditional protection schemes and fault simulation software. To address several of these concerns, the project has the following goals: 1. Improve IBR models: Improve IBR models used in short circuit (SC) programs to accurately capture the response of IBRs at the bulk power system (BPS) level for fault and protection studies. 2. Develop automation tool: Develop an automation tool that allows engineers to identify protection coordination and sensitivity issues by performing SC and protection coordination studies in a high IBR-penetrated grid by applying variations to the IBR models, faults, contingencies, etc. 3. Develop schemes: Develop new protection mitigation solution schemes that complement the existing protection systems to ensure safe operation of the BPS with higher IBR penetration levels. The project team did not achieve this final goal, as the Department of Energy (DOE) stopped the project early due to changes in DOE funding priorities. The termination notice came at the beginning of the final project phase, while the team was identifying and beginning to investigate protection issues. It should be noted that the team discussed a 100% penetration scenario. However, this scenario would require the use of grid-forming IBR models that are not presently available. Since developing these models requires additional effort, the 100% penetration scenario was not pursued during this project. In the future, developing the methodology and models for the 100% scenario could benefit the industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Physical and Operational Status of the Photovoltaic Systems in the Municipality of Pinotepa de Don Luis, Oaxaca, One Year after Their Installation [Estado fisico y operativo de los sistemas fotovoltaicos en el municipio de Pinotepa de Don Luis, Oaxaca un ano despues de su instalacion]

In November 1990, an inspection visit was made to the residential lighting photovoltaic systems that had been installed approximately one year before in the rural communities of the Municipality of Pinotepa de Don Luis, in the State of Oaxaca. The main purpose of the visit was to evaluate the physical and operational status of these systems. The systems typically consist of a photovoltaic module with a capacity of 30 or 35 Watts, an automotive type battery, an indicator of the status of charge of the battery, 3 fluorescent lamps and the corresponding installation, including cables, connection or outlet box and switches. It can be seen that the systems are in good physical condition and do not show any signs of intentionally caused damage. However, the incidence of failures is higher than what had been expected; therefore the operational status of these systems is considered to be below a level that could be accepted, with a tendency to getting worse. The main problem that has been detected is the lack of automatic charge controllers. This problem has caused other important failures. Serious deficiencies were appreciated in the installations, which show evidence of the poor workmanship of the installers. The lack of system standardization is evident, both regarding the components and the installation. As a consequence, there are technical factors which indicate that the installed systems will keep deteriorating at a rate faster than normal, and will stop operating in a short time unless urgent preventive and corrective measures are taken. The attitude of the users with respect to the systems is generally positive. However, there are elements that make the correct operation and maintenance of these systems a very difficult task. The users did not receive any training regarding the best way to operate and take care of their systems, nor any other information in relation to their technical limitations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Power and particle exhaust in the ST-E1 fusion power plant

Power exhaust challenges and potential solutions for a 5 m major radius, low-aspect ratio burning tokamak have been explored. 1D edge plasma models have been used to screen for access to detachment using short and long outer divertor legs in double and single null configurations, using Ar as the primary impurity and assuming tungsten plasma-facing components (PFCs). These show that detachment access can be accessed for all but the most conservative assumptions on scrape-off layer (SOL) width and power, but that trade-offs will be required between magnet engineering and the size of the acceptable window of as-yet uncertain plasma parameters. SOLPS-ITER was used to further model selected plasma scenarios, confirming that Ar seeding can be used to achieve dissipative divertor scenarios with peak deposited heat fluxes below 15 MWm -2 . Initial scoping of first wall loads and positioning of limiters has been carried out, showing the feasibility of protecting the breeding blanket wall during steady state without impeding tritium breeding. Initial PFC technology selection is also presented, identifying this as a critical area where further work is needed to find an attractive solution for helium-cooled PFCs that can handle high heat fluxes without excessive power requirements. Key questions and trade-offs for concept development have been identified, including: how to achieve high radiation for reduction of SOL power without core performance degradation; whether power exhaust can be well-controlled in a double null plasma; mechanical design and materials challenges of high-heat flux PFCs; and control of material erosion, redeposition and tritium retention.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Aliovalent gallium dopants remove Ti 3+ defects and improve photocatalytic and photoelectrochemical water oxidation properties of LaTiO 2 N

LaTiO 2 N is a promising semiconductor for the water splitting reaction due to its 2.1 eV band gap and stability against corrosion. However, its solar energy conversion is limited by Ti 3+ recombination defects introduced during ammonolysis. Here we show for the first time that Ti 3+ defects in LaTiO 2 N can be suppressed with incorporation of 2, 5, and 10% aliovalent gallium (Ga 3+ ) dopants during synthesis via the layered La 2 Ti 2 O 7 intermediate. Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy on the solid powders confirms a reduction in the Ti 3+ donor density from 2.97 × 10 17 cm −3 for the non-doped material to ∼6.24 × 10 16 cm −3 for 5% Ga-doped LaTiO 2 N. The remaining Ti 3+ defects are concentrated near the LaTiO 2 N surface, according to X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The defect reduction shifts the optical absorption edge from 2.02 to 2.09 eV and eliminates a broad absorption band at 1050 nm from the optical absorption spectra. It also removes a 1.0–1.7 eV sub-band gap photovoltage signal from surface photovoltage spectra. This suggests that empty Ti 3+ d-orbitals are located 1.0–1.7 eV above the LaTiO 2 N valence band edge. Removing these recombination states with increasing Ga 3+ content enhances the photoconversion efficiency of LaTiO 2 N during water oxidation. The optimized 2 wt% CoO x -loaded 5% Ga-doped LaTi O2 N material has a 16% AQE (400 nm) for O 2 production from aqueous silver nitrate solution and a ∼2.1 mA cm −2 water oxidation photocurrent at 1.23 V under 100 mW cm −2 Xe arc lamp illumination. The water oxidation photocurrent is stable during a 50 min test, and the Faraday efficiency for O 2 generation is 97%, confirming short-term corrosion stability of LaTiO 2 N. Altogether, these results provide a better understanding of the distribution, concentration, and impact of Ti 3+ defects on the optical, photovoltage, and photoelectrochemical properties of LaTiO 2 N. In combination with other defect control strategies, aliovalent Ga 3+ doping can help bring the solar energy conversion efficiency of LaTiO 2 N closer to the theoretical limit.

Wang, Li [University of California, Davis, CA (Uni

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

AT2025ulz and S250818k: Leveraging DESI Spectroscopy in the Hunt for a Kilonova Associated with a Subsolar-mass Gravitational-wave Candidate

On 2025 August 18, the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA collaboration reported a subthreshold gravitational-wave candidate detection consistent with a subsolar-mass neutron star merger, denoted S250818k. An optical transient, AT2025ulz, was discovered within the localization region. AT2025ulz initially appeared to meet the expected behavior of kilonova emission, the telltale signature of a binary neutron star merger. The transient subsequently rebrightened after ∼5 days and was classified as a Type IIb supernova. In this work, we analyze the observations of its host galaxy obtained by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). From the DESI spectrum, we obtain a secure redshift of z = 0.084840 ± 0.000006. If S250818k has an astrophysical origin, this places the transient within 2σ of the gravitational-wave distance and results in an integral overlap between the gravitational-wave alert and the transient location of log 10 $\mathcal{I} ≈ 3.9 - 4.2$. Our analysis of the host galaxy’s spectral energy distribution reveals a star-forming, dusty galaxy with stellar mass ∼10 10 M ⊙ , broadly consistent with the population of both short gamma-ray bursts and core-collapse supernova host galaxies. We also present our follow-up of DESI-selected candidate host galaxies using the Fraunhofer Telescope at the Wendelstein Observatory, and show the promise of DESI for associating or rejecting candidate electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational-wave alerts. These results emphasize the value of DESI’s extensive spectroscopic dataset in rapidly characterizing host galaxies, enabling spectroscopic host subtraction, and guiding targeted follow-up.

Hall, Xander J. [Carnegie Mellon University, Pitts

String-Breaking Dynamics in Quantum Adiabatic and Diabatic Processes

Confinement prohibits isolation of color charges, e.g., quarks, in nature via a process called string breaking : the separation of two charges results in an increase in the energy of a color flux, visualized as a string, connecting those charges. Eventually, creating additional charges is energetically favored, hence breaking the string. Such a phenomenon can be probed in simpler models, including quantum spin chains, enabling enhanced understanding of string-breaking dynamics. A challenging task is to understand how string breaking occurs as time elapses, in an out-of-equilibrium setting. This work establishes the phenomenology of dynamical string breaking induced by a gradual increase of string tension over time. It, thus, goes beyond instantaneous quench processes and enables tracking the real-time evolution of strings in a more controlled setting. We focus on domain-wall confinement in a family of quantum Ising chains. Our results indicate that, for sufficiently short strings and slow evolution, string breaking can be described by the transition dynamics of a two-state quantum system akin to a Landau-Zener process. For longer strings, a more intricate spatiotemporal pattern emerges: the string breaks by forming a superposition of bubbles (domains of flipped spins of varying sizes), which involve highly excited states. We finally demonstrate that string breaking driven only by quantum fluctuations can be realized in the presence of sufficiently long-ranged interactions. This work holds immediate relevance for studying string breaking in quantum-simulation experiments.

Ising model