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132 records · Page 4

PROBABALISTIC RISK ANALYSIS AND THERMAL MARGIN PROCESS FOR AN INFLATABLE AEROSHELL

Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems (TPS) are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Traditional approaches typically over-margin TPS and offer very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight. A probabilistic margin process can be used to apply thermal margin to an aeroshell based on a rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory modifications, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This methodology can also be applied to other TPS applications, hot structures, and other engineering disciplines.

Steven A Tobin

The Hawaii Meteorology, Energy and Transmission (MET) Toolkit

Reliable long-term resource adequacy and grid planning in Hawaii require precise, multi-decadal meteorological records. This paper introduces the Hawaii Meteorology, Energy and Transmission (MET) Toolkit, a 26-year (2000-2025) high-fidelity atmospheric dataset developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). We present a validation study of the underlying WRF model configurations, comparing the legacy MYNN PBL scheme against an alternative YSU formulation. Using vertical lidar profiles and surface buoy data, our analysis identified a foundational geometric distortion in the legacy NOW-23 Hawaii dataset caused by an incorrect grid projection. When evaluated on a corrected, zero-distortion grid, the YSU scheme demonstrated superior performance in bias and cRMSE compared to the legacy setup. To address these findings, the MET Toolkit has been re-produced as a unified 26-year record using the optimized YSU setup and corrected geometry. This dataset offers the Hawaii power sector a robust, validated, and homogenous reference for future grid resilience and energy integration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Simulations of Yarn Micro-Mechanics of Woven Heat Shield Materials

Carbon and phenolic fibers are commonly used in ablative thermal protection materials, such as 3-dimensional Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP), a 3D-woven composite comprised of mixed-fiber yarn bundles. Predicting the micro-mechanical response and fracture of twisted yarns composed of brittle and ductile fibers requires a modeling approach that captures per-fiber yielding, fiber fracture, and inter-fiber friction and contact. This work presents an extended bonded particle model (BPM) for discrete element method (DEM) simulation of fiber and yarn mechanics, implemented in LAMMPS. The model builds on the incremental bond formulation of Guo et al. and introduces a piecewise elasto-plastic constitutive law for axial extension, enabling representation of fibers that yield before failure. 3MDCP yarns were constructed using measured fiber radius distributions and helical twist geometry. Tensile simulations of single-ply 3MDCP yarns show good agreement with vender stress–strain results. Fiber breakage models also show details on yarn breakage propagration, centered radially in the yarn. Yarn breakage of multi-ply 3MDCP also matched experimental observations in per-ply breakage; however, predicted yarn breakage strength were found higher than experimental observations.

Discrete Element Method

Simulations of Yarn Micro-Mechanics of Woven Heat Shield Materials (3MDCP)

Carbon and phenolic fibers are commonly used in ablative thermal protection materials, such as 3-dimensional Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP), a 3D-woven composite comprised of mixed-fiber yarn bundles. Predicting the micro-mechanical response and fracture of twisted yarns composed of brittle and ductile fibers requires a modeling approach that captures per-fiber yielding, fiber fracture, and inter-fiber friction and contact. This work presents an extended bonded particle model (BPM) for discrete element method (DEM) simulation of fiber and yarn mechanics, implemented in LAMMPS. The model builds on the incremental bond formulation of Guo et al. and introduces a piecewise elasto-plastic constitutive law for axial extension, enabling representation of fibers that yield before failure. 3MDCP yarns were constructed using measured fiber radius distributions and helical twist geometry. Tensile simulations of single-ply 3MDCP yarns show good agreement with vender stress–strain results. Fiber breakage models also show details on yarn breakage propagration, centered radially in the yarn. Yarn breakage of multi-ply 3MDCP also matched experimental observations in per-ply breakage; however, predicted yarn breakage strength were found higher than experimental observations.

Woven

Thermomechanical Modeling of Woven Materials With Particle-Based, Explicit-Fiber Simulations

Fiber-based materials are extensively used to protect spacecraft during entry. Insulative fibers, often in a fiber network or woven, provide rigidity, strength, and control of material anisotropy and density. Woven thermal protection materials, such as ADEPT (Adaptable, Deployable Entry and Placement Technology), 3D-MAT (3-Dimensional Multifunctional Ablative Thermal Protection), and 3MDCP (3D Woven Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic), enable missions with stronger and denser materials for entry profiles with high shear and heat flux. Vulnerabilities to woven thermal protection materials include manufacturing-induced material property variation, and impact from micrometeoroids. Simulating woven materials under these conditions require models that can resolve hierarchal structures, thermomechanical behavior, and failure. To address this, we simulate weave thermal conduction and mechanical deformation. We simulate the full weave with a coarse-grained yarn model is presented. The model combines a validated, high-resolution single 3MDCP yarn model and phenolic resin model. Instead of modeling every fiber, each yarn ply with order 10, instead of order 1000, fibers. The discrete element bonded particle model (DEM-BPM) of fibers captures the thermal and mechanical behavior within and between fibers. We study the proportion of heat transfer and stress via the contact network, fiber bonds, and overall weave geometry.

bonded particle

Development and Validation of Low-Cost, High-Reflectance Composite CSP Facets: SIPS Final Report

This work investigates the various challenges associated with developing heliostat structural composite facets using 1 mm glass mirrors. Such facets are desirable for Concentrating Solar Power because 1 mm glass mirrors provide an absolute increase in reflectivity of 2-3 % over the industry standard of 4 mm glass mirrors. Prototypes of paraboloid composite facets with 1 mm glass mirrors were constructed that have a root mean square slope error on the order of 2 mrad while achieving greater than 96% reflectivity. These facets were constructed using a low-quality aluminum mold and a bill of materials that show potential to achieve cost parity with existing 4 mm glass mirrors supported by structural steel. The facets produced were able to survive up to 50 mm hail ball impacts and were robust against accelerated environmental cycling designed to expose durability concerns. Further work is needed to develop a scalable and cost-effective manufacturing process with a similar bill of materials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Artemis I Space Launch System Base Heat Shield Thermal Protection System Performance

The Space Launch System (SLS) Core Stage base heat shield experienced the highest external heating environments on the entire launch vehicle during Artemis I ascent flight. This result was consistent with design predictions. The base heat shield experiences P50 cork combustion dynamics at low altitudes, plume-induced recirculation at moderate altitudes and then in-space base flow physics out to Main Engine Cut-Off (MECO). The base heat shield thermal protection system (TPS) is composed of a P50 cork ablator which is bonded to a substrate. The heat shield protects the gimbal actuation system, RS-25 turbomachinery systems and other aft section sensitive components during ascent. This paper estimates the base heat shield TPS performance from Artemis I using flight data from the NASA Langley Research Center’s Scientifically Calibrated In-Flight Imagery (SCIFLI) Airborne Multispectral Imager (SAMI), development flight instrumentation (DFI) and other TPS recession flight measurements. Predictions from computational and ground test-derived engineering ablation models and observations are also applied. Since no base heat shield substrate thermocouple data were obtained for Artemis I, an estimate of the TPS performance data is derived here. This data assesses thermal margin of the SLS Core Stage base heat shield and best informs the Artemis II Crewed mission to the moon.

aerothermodynamics

Commercial and Industrial Energy Procurement in Nigeria: A Consumer's Guidebook

Across Africa, countries have incorporated a variety of new energy sources into their energy mix to account for increasing demand. In Nigeria, electricity consumption per capita has grown nearly 50% in the past 20 years. To address rising demand for energy in Nigeria, the country has passed several recent policies and regulations aimed at increasing energy generation across the country, improving the country's transmission infrastructure, and ensuring that electricity reliably reaches end users, including commercial and industrial (C&I) customers. This guidebook is designed for C&I customers in Nigeria to use in the consideration of procuring such onsite, captive energy systems to supplement their energy needs. Each section of this guidebook touches on a step of the procurement process and details the relevant stakeholders, processes, and data needed to make decisions during that step.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Estimating Return on Investment for Energy Technical Assistance Programs

The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of State and Community Energy Programs engaged the National Laboratory of the Rockies to assess the return on investment (ROI) of technical assistance (TA) programs that support state, local, and Tribal energy planning. Although TA delivers value through capacity building, stakeholder engagement, and knowledge transfer, these benefits are often intangible and challenging to monetize. This study reviews existing ROI frameworks and synthesizes the most relevant elements into a hybrid approach tailored to energy TA programs. The proposed framework integrates monetary and non-monetary outcomes through early logic model development, baseline data collection, and the use of proxies for intangible benefits. As a case study, this paper applies this approach to the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP), demonstrating how ROI can inform program design, data strategy, and performance assessment. Findings underscore that ROI should be applied selectively and planned from the outset to ensure data alignment and attribution accuracy. The framework offers TA practitioners a structured approach that can be leveraged for future programs to evaluate and communicate the multifaceted value of TA investments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Advanced-Research-on-Integrated-Energy-Systems-Based Analysis to Support Resilient System Upgrades: Energy to Communities Energyshed In-Depth Partnership with Molokai, Hawaii

The Molokai, Hawaii, Energy to Communities (E2C) Energyshed project represents a collaborative effort between the National Laboratory of the Rockies, Shake Energy Collaborative, the Molokai Clean Energy Hui, Sustainable Molokai, and Ho'ahu Energy Cooperative Molokai to advance Molokai's Community Energy Resilience Action Plan (CERAP). Supported by Hawaiian Electric Company and the Hawaii State Energy Office, the initiative aims to develop a community-defined portfolio of renewable energy solutions that enhance energy resilience while aligning with the Hawaiian Electric Integrated Grid Plan (IGP) and Molokai's energy goals. Phase 1 focused on technical analyses and community engagement to co-design feasible energy scenarios. Challenges such as grid upgrades, storage sizing, and inverter ride-through standards were addressed to align technical and operational requirements with community preferences. The project equips Molokai with actionable data and insights to implement energy initiatives while ensuring resilient and culturally informed solutions. Future efforts aim to finalize project designs, secure interconnection agreements, and deploy energy projects that reflect community priorities and technical feasibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Material Properties and Modeling of Room Temperature Vulcanizing Silicone

Room Temperature Vulcanizing silicone (RTV) is a high-temperature adhesive that has successfully been used as a gap-filler between Thermal Protection System (TPS) tiles for heatshields on numerous missions. It is also used to bond instrumentation plugs such as temperature and pressure sensors into the heatshields. While RTV has been traditionally assumed to be a non-porous and non-ablating material, numerous experiments have shown that RTV pyrolyzes and becomes highly porous as it is heated. Heating RTV has also shown swelling, or intumescence, which can pose unique problems that lead to roughness induced boundary-layer transition, surface oxide formation and contamination of heat shield sensors. Therefore, it is crucial to understand and model the intumescence phenomenon of RTV. As data for RTV material properties is limited, the first step in modeling RTV is to collect material properties such as pyrolysis mass-loss, microstructure change, virgin and char porosity, etc. which was performed in our initial study. Additionally, thermomechanical properties such as Young’s modulus and Poisson ratio are required for modeling the intumescence of RTV, which were taken from literature and the coefficient of thermal expansion was collected using in-situ heating and Micro Computed Tomography (µ-CT) in previous studies. Finally, numerous other properties such as pyrolysis gas properties, virgin and char thermal conductivity and specific heat were compiled from previous experiments and literature into a material database that can be used for simulations. In Porous Material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) [4], structural mechanics coupled with material response was used for simulating the intumescence of RTV as it is heated. However, since the permeability of the material is very low, the pyrolysis gas creates an internal pressure build-up as the material is being heated, significantly contributing to the deformation of the material. To correctly characterize this phenomenon, additional physics models were implemented into PATO's stress analysis solver, and results were compared with RTV dilatometry test data as a preliminary verification case. Future work will include experiments of RTV at the Plasmatron X facility and the in-situ heating cell with µ-CT, and improvement of simulation tools to more accurately model RTV intumescence.

PATO

First Wall Design of a Tokamak Pilot Plant Using a Monte Carlo Model for 3-D Heat Flux Deposition

We present a method for calculating the heat fluxes deposited on nonaxisymmetric tokamak first wall components, allowing for a first-of-its-kind model for power handling in the tokamak far scrape-off layer (SOL). The DIV3D Monte Carlo model features strict global power conservation and can calculate the finite cross-field plasma transport into magnetically-shadowed regions, which is significant when dealing with meter-scale shadows introduced by components such as poloidal limiters or antennas. As a case study, we apply the DIV3D model to inform the distribution of first wall poloidal limiters in an ARC-class reactor device. We demonstrate that discrete protection limiters can efficiently reduce peak heat fluxes on recessed breeder wall components in the presence of significant far-SOL plasma fluxes. By varying the toroidal periodicity and radial standoff depth of the limiters, we demonstrate one of the tradeoffs that must be considered in first wall design: more limiters provide greater protection, but at the cost of reduced breeding performance. We also present the impact that radial misalignments between limiters would have on first wall power loading.

Monte Carlo methods

Thermochemically-Closed Sonic-Flow Inversion for Enthalpy and Temperature in Multispecies Arc-Jet Flows

A thermochemically-closed sonic-flow inversion framework (TSIF) is developed to infer bulk enthalpy and total temperature upstream of a choked nozzle in arc-jet flows. The formulation recasts a pressure-rise total enthalpy quantification technique as an inverse problem in characteristic-velocity c * space using measured mass flow rate, upstream total pressure, gas composition, and nozzle throat geometry as inputs. Unlike calorimetric energy-balance approaches or optical diagnostics, the method relies primarily on routinely measured facility quantities combined with explicit thermochemical closure. Thermochemical states are obtained using NASA’s open-source Chemical Equilibrium with Applications (CEA) code, enabling construction of a chemistry-consistent relation between characteristic velocity, total enthalpy, and total temperature under equilibrium or frozen assumptions. A discharge coefficient is self-calibrated using cold-flow (arc-off) operation data and applied to hot-flow (arc-on) measurements, enabling upstream losses to be accounted for without empirical correlations. The framework is applied to air, N 2 , and CO 2 –N 2 arc-jet flows and demonstrates expected trends for the inferred thermochemical states as function of arc power, specific energy input, mass-flow, heater configuration, and test gas. In the air limit, under equilibrium assumptions, the method recovers the classical high-enthalpy asymptotic correlation of Winovich with a mean residual of 4.4%, demonstrating compatibility with established sonic-flow scaling, while extending applicability to arbitrary multi-species mixtures and non-equilibrium chemistry. The framework provides a mixture-flexible methodology for determining bulk thermochemical states in modern arc-jet environments using routine facility pressure, mass-flow, gas-composition, and nozzle-geometry information together with a cold-flow calibration.

stagnation heat flux

Thermochemically-Closed Sonic-Flow Inversion for Enthalpy and Temperature in Multispecies Arc-Jet Flows

A thermochemically-closed sonic-flow inversion framework (TSIF) is developed to infer bulk enthalpy and total temperature upstream of a choked nozzle in arc-jet flows. The formulation recasts a pressure-rise total enthalpy quantification technique as an inverse problem in characteristic-velocity c * space using measured mass flow rate, upstream total pressure, gas composition, and nozzle throat geometry as inputs. Unlike calorimetric energy-balance approaches or optical diagnostics, the method relies primarily on routinely measured facility quantities combined with explicit thermochemical closure. Thermochemical states are obtained using NASA’s open-source Chemical Equilibrium with Applications (CEA) code, enabling construction of a chemistry-consistent relation between characteristic velocity, total enthalpy, and total temperature under equilibrium or frozen assumptions. A discharge coefficient is self-calibrated using cold-flow (arc-off) operation data and applied to hot-flow (arc-on) measurements, enabling upstream losses to be accounted for without empirical correlations. The framework is applied to air, N 2 , and CO 2 –N 2 arc-jet flows and demonstrates expected trends for the inferred thermochemical states as function of arc power, specific energy input, mass-flow, heater configuration, and test gas. In the air limit, under equilibrium assumptions, the method recovers the classical high-enthalpy asymptotic correlation of Winovich with a mean residual of 4.4%, demonstrating compatibility with established sonic-flow scaling, while extending applicability to arbitrary multi-species mixtures and non-equilibrium chemistry. The framework provides a mixture-flexible methodology for determining bulk thermochemical states in modern arc-jet environments using routine facility pressure, mass-flow, gas-composition, and nozzle-geometry information together with a cold-flow calibration.

inviscid theory

Analytical Model for Steady Flow through a Finite Channel with One Porous Wall with Arbitrary Variable Suction or Injection

This paper presents an exact solution of two-dimensional laminar flow through a finite length channel with one porous wall. It improves upon previous solutions by (1) satisfying the no-slip boundary condition at the channel dead end, (2) adding a turbulent term to the porous wall boundary condition, (3) allowing for arbitrary variable suction or injection across the porous wall, and (4) model validation against new cryogenic liquid hydrogen and oxygen experimental data. Of particular interest in the current work is the modeling of cryogenic propellant flow through a porous liquid acquisition device (LAD) screen and channel inside a propellant tank. First, a detailed review of the literature is presented for previously attempted solutions to channel flow with one porous wall. Next, the governing equations, boundary conditions, and model assumptions are used to derive the analytical flow solution and present general model results for pressure and velocity fields within the channel. Then, the model solution is compared with horizontal LAD channel flow data in liquid oxygen as well as vertical LAD channel flow data in an inverted outflow configuration in liquid hydrogen. Model results are used to update the static cryogenic bubble point pressure model with a dynamic bubble point term which factors in enhanced convection and cooling at the screen during propellant outflow. Convective heat transfer at the LAD screen during outflow is also quantified by comparing model and data. The new analytical flow solution with the dynamic bubble point model is shown to compare well with available cryogenic experimental data

Navier Stokes Equations

A Novel Approach to Investigate Thermal Protection Systems Materials

The Koo Research Group (KRG) at The University of Texas at Austin (UT) and KAI has specialized in “Ablation Research” for more than fifteen years. Recently, the group has developed several incredibly unique capabilities that can advance “Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) Materials Research & Development” using an integrated experimental and numerical approach. The paper aims to introduce the methodology KRG has developed to solve this challenging problem. It will discuss how the KRG develops “Process-Properties-Performance” relationships of novel TPS materials in a systematical approach using (a) processing and fabrication, (b) thermal characterization of properties, (c) aerothermal testing, (d) microstructures characterization and analysis, and (e) numerical modeling. Progress and challenges of this research will also be discussed.

Engineering