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At least 73 records · Page 4

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Schatten, K. H.↗

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Schatten, K. H.↗

MGS Radio Science Electron Density Profiles: Interannual Variability and Implications for the Martian Neutral Atmosphere

Martian electron density profiles provided by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Radio Science (RS) experiment over the 95-200 km altitude range indicate what the height of the electron peak and the longitudinal structure of the peak height are sensitive indicators of the physical state of the Mars lower and upper atmospheres. The present analysis is carried out on five sets of occultation profiles, all at high solar zenith angles (SZA). Variations spanning 2 Martian years are investigated near aphelion conditions at high northern latitudes (64.7 - 77.6 N) making use of four of these data sets. A mean ionospheric peak height of 133.5 - 135 km is obtained near SZA = 78 - 82 deg.; a corresponding mean peak density of 7.3 - 8.5 x l0(exp 4)/ qu cm is also measured during solar moderate conditions at Mars. Strong wave number 2 - 3 oscillations in peak heights are consistently observed as a function of longitude over the 2 Martian years. These observed ionospheric features are remarkably similar during aphelion conditions 1 Martian year apart. This year-to-year repeatability in the thermosphere-ionosphere structure is consistent with that observed in multiyear aphelion temperature data of the Mars lower atmosphere. Coupled Mars general circulation model (MGCM) and Mars thermospheric general circulation model (MTGCM) codes are run for Mars aphelion conditions, yielding mean and longitude variable ionospheric peak heights that reasonably match RS observations. A tidal decomposition of MTGCM thermospheric densities shows that observed ionospheric wave number 3 features are linked to a non-migrating tidal mode with semidiurnal period (sigma = 2) and zonal wave number 1 (s = -1) characteristics. The height of this photochemically determined ionospheric peak should be monitored regularly.

Bougher, S. W.↗

Observations on thermospheric and mesospheric density disturbances caused by typhoons and convective storms

Atmospheric parameter observations have been conducted during the passage of typhoons and tropical storms, from the troposphere to the middle atmosphere, and thence to the thermosphere, using the VHF radar and HF Doppler sounder at an observation site in Taiwan. The density perturbations caused by the propagation of gravity waves due to the typhoons and tropical storms were calculated on the basis of these observations. The short-term middle atmospheric and thermospheric density changes are significant factors in spacecraft launches. The successful remote measurement of three-dimensional winds, gravity waves, and density perturbations is demonstrated for this subtropical site.

Hung, R. J.↗

Wind induced composition effects at high latitudes

The temperature and compositional structure of the upper atmosphere are discussed in relation to the impacts of wind-induced diffusion processes. Seasonal variations in thermospheric temperature and composition are explained by energy and mass transport from the summer to the winter hemisphere induced by preferential heating, with the winter oxygen bulge participating in a feedback mechanism which acts to dampen wind velocities and increase temperature contrast. Changes in the eddy diffusion coefficient are considered as a complementary mechanism of producing the seasonal anomalies. The role of winds induced by high-latitude heating by particles and Joule dissipation during magnetic storms and substorms in accounting for thermospheric density increases and N2 and Ar enhancements and O and He depletions at high latitudes are discussed, and the rather weak compositional signature of E x B momentum coupling is distinguished from the effects of Joule dissipation.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Empirical modeling of the thermosphere: An overview

A summary is given of thermospheric density modeling history and standard atmospheres. In particular, the approaches of the Jacchia and MSIS models were compared and contrasted. It was concluded that the Jacchia models are best if drag is the primary concern. MSIS is superior for variations in composition and temperature variations and comparison with theoretical models is facilitated by the use of spherical harmonics, which also provide a simple and consistent way of obtaining simplifications. Advantages and disadvantages of both models are listed and discussed.

Hedin, A.↗

Forecasts of solar and geomagnetic activity

Forecasts of solar and geomagnetic activity are critical since these quantities are such important inputs to the thermospheric density models. At this time in the history of solar science there is no way to make such a forecast from first principles. Physical theory applied to the Sun is developing rapidly, but is still primitive. Techniques used for forecasting depend upon the observations over about 130 years, which is only twelve solar cycles. It has been noted that even-numbered cycles systematically tend to be smaller than the odd-numbered ones by about 20 percent. Another observation is that for the last 12 cycle pairs, an even-numbered sunspot cycle looks rather like the next odd-numbered cycle, but with the top cut off. These observations are examples of approximate periodicities that forecasters try to use to achieve some insight into the nature of an upcoming cycle. Another new and useful forecasting aid is a correlation that has been noted between geomagnetic indices and the size of the next solar cycle. Some best estimates are given concerning both activities.

Joselyn, Joann↗

Helium in the polar wind

The coupled time-dependent continuity, momentum, and energy equations for four charged species (H(+), He(+), O(+) and electrons) moving through a stationary upper neutral atmosphere (composed of O2, N2, O, He, and H) were solved along open geomagnetic field lines using a modified version of the Gombosi et al. (1985) model. The thermospheric densities and temperatures, obtained from the MSIS-86 model (Hedin, 1987), were used to calculate neutral-ion sources, sinks, and collision frequencies. The various cross sections and conductivities employed by the Gombosi et al. model were also updated. The paper presents the first time-dependent solutions for the He(+) component of the polar wind. Special attention is paid to the solar cycle variation of the ion upflows.

Gombosi, T. I.↗

A Change in the Solar He II EUV Global Network Structure as an Indicator of the Geo-Effectiveness of Solar Minima

Solar activity during 2007 - 2009 was very low, causing anomalously low thermospheric density. A comparison of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance in the He II spectral band (26 to 34 nm) from the Solar Extreme ultraviolet Monitor (SEM), one of instruments on the Charge Element and Isotope Analysis System (CELIAS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for the two latest solar minima showed a decrease of the absolute irradiance of about 15 +/- 6 % during the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24 compared with the Cycle 22/23 minimum when a yearly running-mean filter was used. We found that some local, shorter-term minima including those with the same absolute EUV flux in the SEM spectral band show a higher concentration of spatial power in the global network structure from the 30.4 nm SOHO/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) images for the local minimum of 1996 compared with the minima of 2008 - 2011.We interpret this higher concentration of spatial power in the transition region's global network structure as a larger number of larger-area features on the solar disk. These changes in the global network structure during solar minima may characterize, in part, the geo-effectiveness of the solar He II EUV irradiance in addition to the estimations based on its absolute levels.

Solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance↗

SLS-SPEC-159 Cross-Program Design Specification for Natural Environments (DSNE) Revision D

This document is derived from the former National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Constellation Program (CxP) document CxP 70023, titled "The Design Specification for Natural Environments (DSNE), Revision C." The original document has been modified to represent updated Design Reference Missions (DRMs) for the NASA Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Programs. The DSNE completes environment-related specifications for architecture, system-level, and lower-tier documents by specifying the ranges of environmental conditions that must be accounted for by NASA ESD Programs. To assure clarity and consistency, and to prevent requirements documents from becoming cluttered with extensive amounts of technical material, natural environment specifications have been compiled into this document. The intent is to keep a unified specification for natural environments that each Program calls out for appropriate application. This document defines the natural environments parameter limits (maximum and minimum values, energy spectra, or precise model inputs, assumptions, model options, etc.), for all ESD Programs. These environments are developed by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch (MSFC organization code: EV44). Many of the parameter limits are based on experience with previous programs, such as the Space Shuttle Program. The parameter limits contain no margin and are meant to be evaluated individually to ensure they are reasonable (i.e., do not apply unrealistic extreme-on-extreme conditions). The natural environments specifications in this document should be accounted for by robust design of the flight vehicle and support systems. However, it is understood that in some cases the Programs will find it more effective to account for portions of the environment ranges by operational mitigation or acceptance of risk in accordance with an appropriate program risk management plan and/or hazard analysis process. The DSNE is not intended as a definition of operational models or operational constraints, nor is it adequate, alone, for ground facilities which may have additional requirements (for example, building codes and local environmental constraints). "Natural environments," as the term is used here, refers to the environments that are not the result of intended human activity or intervention. It consists of a variety of external environmental factors (most of natural origin and a few of human origin) which impose restrictions or otherwise impact the development or operation of flight vehicles and destination surface systems. These natural environments include the following types of environments: Terrestrial environments at launch, abort, and normal landing sites (winds, temperatures, pressures, surface roughness, sea conditions, etc.); Space environments (ionizing radiation, orbital debris, meteoroids, thermosphere density, plasma, solar, Earth, and lunar-emitted thermal radiation, etc.); Destination environments (Lunar surface and orbital, Mars atmosphere and surface, near Earth asteroids, etc.). Many of the environmental specifications in this document are based on models, data, and environment descriptions contained in the CxP 70044, Constellation Program Natural Environment Definition for Design (NEDD). The NEDD provides additional detailed environment data and model descriptions to support analytical studies for ESD Programs. For background information on specific environments and their effects on spacecraft design and operations, the environment models, and the data used to generate the specifications contained in the DSNE, the reader is referred to the NEDD paragraphs listed in each section of the DSNE. Also, most of the environmental specifications in this document are tied specifically to the ESD DRMs in ESD-10012, Revision B, Exploration Systems Development Concept of Operations (ConOps). Coordination between these environment specifications and the DRMs must be maintained. This document should be compatible with the current ESD DRMs, but updates to the mission definitions and variations in interpretation may require adjustments to the environment specifications.

Roberts, Barry C.↗

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Suggs, Ron↗

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Suggs, Ron↗

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Suggs, Ron↗

A Survey of Large-Scale Variations in Thermospheric Oxygen Column Density with Magnetic Activity as Inferred from Observations of the FUV Dayglow

Brightness of the terrestrial far-ultraviolet (FUV) dayglow is dominated by the 130.4-nm emission of neutral atomic oxygen, OI, and variations in the brightness observed from altitudes high above the emitting region reflect variations in thermospheric oxygen density. This paper summarizes the results of an initial survey of the Dynamics Explorer 1 observations of the FUV dayglow through a presentation of 13 representative events selected to demonstrate the spatial extent and short-term temporal stability of the brightness perturbations. The emphasis here is on the morning sector of local time and the polar cap for observations obtained in the time interval from September 23, 1981, through January 19, 1982. An analytic expression is derived for the average response of the FUV photometer to the dayglow during periods of high-latitude magnetic quiescence. The remaining observations in this time interval are then analyzed for their deviations from the established quiet time values. Deviations of -40% to +30% are found following intervals of increased magnetic activity. The most significant decreases (-30% to -40%) are observed equatorward of the instantaneous aurora] oval only after sustained periods (approx. 6 hours) of intense magnetic activity (average AE greater than approx. 700 nT). Decreases extend equatorward from the aurora to geographic latitudes as low as approx. 30 deg N. Decreases of lesser magnitude that do not extend as far equatorward are associated with sustained periods of more moderate activity in which the average value of AE is smaller (approx. 300-400 nT). Also, the spatial extent and magnitude of the decreases in the morning sector appear greater when the IMF B(sub y) component is positive. In both cases, decreases are readily observed within the polar cap. Localized enhancements of +20% to +30% occur much less frequently and are detected at the middle latitudes, well equator-ward of the auroral oval.

Nicholas, A. C.↗

An assessment of twilight airglow inversion procedures using atmosphere explorer observations

The aim of this research project was to test and truth some recently developed methods for recovering thermospheric oxygen atom densities and thermospheric temperatures from ground-based observations of the 7320 A O(+)((sup 2)D - (sup 2)P) twilight air glow emission. The research plan was to use twilight observations made by the Visible Airglow Experiment (VAE) on the Atmosphere Explorer 'E' satellite as proxy ground based twilight observations. These observations were to be processed using the twilight inversion procedures, and the recovered oxygen atom densities and thermospheric temperatures were then to be examined to see how they compared with the densities and temperatures that were measured by the Open Source Mass Spectrometer and the Neutral Atmosphere Temperature Experiment on the satellite.

Mcdade, I. C.↗

Diurnal and semidiurnal nitrogen density and temperature variations from thermosphere probe measurements.

Amplitudes and phases for the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of thermospheric molecular nitrogen density and temperature are determined from data obtained by six rocket-launched thermosphere probes. The semidiurnal tide is significant for the lower thermosphere variations, where it could dominate in the N2 density at 140 km and in the temperature for altitudes between 170 and 200 km. At exospheric heights, the magnitudes of the semidiurnal modes in density and temperature are significantly smaller than those of the diurnal mode. The temperature phase is height-dependent in both diurnal and semidiurnal components below 200 km, thus contributing to phase differences between N2 density and temperature in both modes. No significant phase differences are apparent between N2 density and thermospheric temperature above 250 km.

Newton, G. P.↗