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DOE OSTI2024

Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part II: Risk Assessment

This comprehensive report explores the intricate interplay through “sector coupling” between the Transportation Sector, Energy Sector, and the critical infrastructure challenges faced by the United States. Aligned with the ambitious federal goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the report analyzes the present vulnerabilities in the fossil fuel supply chain, highlighting instances where the dependence on this industry has been susceptible to local and global disruptions. With a focus on risk assessment, this report establishes a framework to compare the fossil fuel-based transportation sector with the burgeoning electrified sector, considering the evolving technologies in electric vehicles (EVs) and the nascent charging infrastructure. This study delves into the historical reliability of fossil fuel-based transportation and identifies opportunities for strengthening sector coupling between transportation and the electric sector. Assessments of the gasoline-diesel supply chain provide insights into both opportunities and threats, offering a roadmap for creating a more reliable and resilient electrified transportation system. We modeled sectoral coupling scenarios for the current internal combustion engine (ICE)-based and future EV-dominant landscapes, leveraging qualitative sector attributes to identify relative strengths and weaknesses in Part 1 of the report. In this report (Part 2) we continue to understand the role of the electricity sector on transportation and develop a semi-quantitative methodology is employed to evaluate and compare the risks associated with the fossil fueled and electric transportation sector during emergency scenarios, drawing from real-world events like hurricanes and geopolitical disruptions. Different operational scenarios for the fossil fuel and electrified sectors have been developed to understand the risks associated with them. This report concludes with recommendations for the architectural designs of electric charging infrastructure, underlining the need for informed decisions in the transition towards a sustainable and resilient transportation future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

On Theories of Change: Rethinking the Ban Treaty and Disarmament Strategies

A week before Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi had lunch with the Financial Times. In the interview, Grossi expressed both optimism and pessimism about the nuclear landscape: he was hopeful about prospects for diplomacy, including with Iran. But he also expressed longer-term concerns about a proliferation cascade and rising nuclear risks, in particular, Russia’s nuclear threats amidst the war in Ukraine. “In the past, this was quite taboo,” he said, “but now people talk about tactical nuclear weapons like something which could be contained or permissible.” Given subsequent events in Iran, along with the expiration of New START in 2026 and expanding nuclear arsenals in Russia and China, pessimism would seem to trump hope for prospects for nuclear disarmament.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Resilience Planning Landscape for Communities and Electric Utilities

Synapse Energy Economics has conducted structured interviews to better characterize the current landscape of resilience planning within and across jurisdictions. Synapse interviewed representatives of a diverse group of communities and their electric utilities. The resulting case studies span geographies and utility regulatory structures and represent a range of threats. They also vary in terms of population density and size. This report summarizes our approach and the findings gleaned from these conversations. All the communities and utilities we interviewed see increased interest in and commitment of resources for energy-related resilience. The risks and consequences these communities and utilities faced in the past, face now, and will face in the future drove them to improve engagement, advance processes, further decision-making, and in many cases invest in projects. While no process used by communities and utilities was the same, the different processes used by communities and utilities allowed each one to make progress in its own way. Several approaches are emerging that can provide good models for other communities and utilities with an interest in improving resilience.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Urban Heat Island Phenomenon: How Its Effects Can Influence Environmental Decision Making in Your Community

Reinvestment in urban centers is breathing new life into neighborhoods that have been languishing as a result of explosive suburban development over the past several decades. In cities all over the country, adaptive reuse, brownfields redevelopment, transforming urban landscapes, economies, and quality of life. However, the way in which this development occurs has the potential to exacerbate the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon, an existing problem in many areas and one which poses a threat to the long-term sustainability and environmental quality of cities. The UHI phenomenon is rooted in the science of how the land covers respond to solar heating and can adversely effect the environment. This phenomenon is responsible for urban centers having higher air temperatures and poorer air quality than suburban areas. In addition, the UHI phenomenon causes metrological occurrences, degrades water quality, increases energy demands, poses threats to public health and contributes to global warming. While the name of the phenomenon implies that is solely an urban issue, research has shown that the effects of the UHI are becoming prevalent in suburbs, as well. The UHI phenomenon can plague regions - urban centers and their suburbs. Furthermore, heat islands have been found to exist in both city centers and suburban communities. As suburban areas increasingly develop using land covers and building materials common to urban areas, they are inheriting urban problems - such as heat islands. In this way, it may be necessary for non-urban communities to engage in heat island mitigation. The good news is that through education and planning, the effects of the UHI phenomenon can be prevented and mitigated. Heat islands are more a product of urban design rather than the density of development. Therefore, cities can continue to grow and develop without exacerbating the UHI by employing sustainable development strategies.

Estes, Maurice G., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed

Abstract The Raccoon River Basin is the primary source for drinking water in Iowa's largest city and plays a major role in the Mississippi River Basin's high nutrient exports. Future climate change may have major impacts on the biological, physiological, and agronomic processes imposing a threat to ecosystem services. Efforts to reduce nitrogen (N) loads within this basin have included local litigation and the implementation of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which suggest incorporating bioenergy crops (i.e., miscanthus) within the current corn–soybean landscape to reach a 41% reduction in nitrate loads. This study focuses on simulating N export for historical and future land use scenarios by using an agroecosystem model (Agro‐IBIS) and a hydrology model (THMB) at the 500‐m resolution, similar to the scale of agricultural fields. Model simulations are driven by CMIP5 climate data for historical, mid‐century, and late‐century under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 warming projections. Using recent crop profit analyses for the state of Iowa, profitability maps were generated and nitrogen leaching thresholds were used to determine where miscanthus should replace corn–soybean area to maximize reductions in N pollution. Our results show that miscanthus inclusion on low profit and high N leaching areas can result in a 4% reduction of N loss under current climate conditions and may reduce N loss by 21%–26% under future climate conditions, implying that water quality has the potential continue to improve under future climate conditions when strategically implemented conservation practices are included in future farm management plans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Challenges and Solutions for Leave-One-Out Biosensor Design in the Context of a Rugged Fitness Landscape

The leave-one-out (LOO) green fluorescent protein (GFP) approach to biosensor design combines computational protein design with split protein reconstitution. LOO-GFPs reversibly fold and gain fluorescence upon encountering the target peptide, which can be redefined by computational design of the LOO site. Such an approach can be used to create reusable biosensors for the early detection of emerging biological threats. Enlightening biophysical inferences for nine LOO-GFP biosensor libraries are presented, with target sequences from dengue, influenza, or HIV, replacing beta strands 7, 8, or 11. An initially low hit rate was traced to components of the energy function, manifesting in the over-rewarding of over-tight side chain packing. Also, screening by colony picking required a low library complexity, but designing a biosensor against a peptide of at least 12 residues requires a high-complexity library. This double-bind was solved using a “piecemeal” iterative design strategy. Also, designed LOO-GFPs fluoresced in the unbound state due to unwanted dimerization, but this was solved by fusing a fully functional prototype LOO-GFP to a fiber-forming protein, Drosophila ultrabithorax, creating a biosensor fiber. One influenza hemagglutinin biosensor is characterized here in detail, showing a shifted excitation/emission spectrum, a micromolar affinity for the target peptide, and an unexpected photo-switching ability.

Chemistry↗

NASA NTRS2020

Africa Food Security & Agriculture: Predicting the Likelihood of Human-elephant Conflict and Assessing Elephant Habitat Conditions During Extreme Drought and Crop Deficit in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

Human-wildlife conflict is increasingly more common due to human population growth, habitat fragmentation, and changing climatic conditions. This conflict is particularly evident in the Kavango-Zambezi area, where over three million people share the landscape with an abundant megafauna population. As the changing climate continues to exacerbate drought severity and subsequent food availability, conflict between humans and wildlife has become more prevalent. In the Kavango-Zambezi area, conflict between elephants and humans has resulted in crop loss, property damage, and threats to public safety. In order to manage current and future conflict, The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation have been working to empower farmers and conserve the natural habitat. This DEVELOP project employed Earth observations to conduct a time series analysis of vegetation health change, elephant movement, and climate conditions, from 2017 to 2020. Data were aggregated into the wet (November through April) and dry (May through October) seasons. The resulting analysis demonstrated the potential to use Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Global Precipitation Measurement’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), and TerraClimate data to identify potential areas of conflict under increased seasonal variability. An improved understanding of conflict drivers will help support sustainable wildlife conservation and food security in the future.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

NASA NTRS2020

Africa Food Security & Agriculture: Predicting the Likelihood of Human-elephant Conflict and Assessing Elephant Habitat Conditions During Extreme Drought and Crop Deficit in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Design and Evaluation of Zero Trust Architecture for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure: EVs @ Scale Series on EV Charging Station Cybersecurity

Implementing a zero trust architecture can significantly bolster the security of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. EV charging infrastructure includes numerous networked interfaces, each of which can present potential vulnerabilities. When these vulnerabilities are exploited, they can compromise the entire system, leading to severe operational and security risks. Zero trust is a security model that operates on the principle of "never trust, always verify," which helps manage the attack surface and limit the scope of any potential compromises. Fundamentally, this model ensures that no entity, whether inside or outside the network, is trusted by default. The design principles of zero trust include continuous verification, strict deny-by-default access controls, and micro-segmentation. Continuous verification ensures that every request is thoroughly checked, regardless of its origin. Strict access controls enforce the principle of least privilege, allowing users and devices only the minimum necessary access to perform their functions. Micro-segmentation involves dividing the network into smaller, isolated segments to prevent lateral movement in case of a breach. In the context of EV charging infrastructure, zero trust can be implemented through various strategies. For example, multi-factor authentication (MFA) can be required for engineers to access the management interfaces and control systems of charging stations. Real-time monitoring and analysis of network traffic can help detect and respond to anomalies. Systems that do not need to communicate with each other can be micro-segmented to enhance security. All communications should adhere to predefined policies to be permitted. Additionally, encrypting communications can protect sensitive information exchanged between chargers and management systems. This paper presents a zero trust architecture specifically designed for EV charging infrastructure. Implementing zero trust not only mitigates risks but also builds a resilient infrastructure capable of withstanding and quickly recovering from cyber threats. The architecture addresses six defined security objectives. A comprehensive test plan is developed to assess the architecture against these objectives, and the results of the evaluation are reported. This approach is essential for maintaining the reliability and integrity of EV charging services in an increasingly interconnected and vulnerable digital landscape. This is the first in a planned series of papers exploring the implementation of zero trust in EV charging infrastructure. Each paper will delve into different aspects and applications of zero trust, highlighting how various work processes and requirements can lead to distinct architectural designs. These architectures will be tailored to address specific security challenges and operational needs within the EV charging ecosystem, ensuring a robust and adaptable security framework.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Risk Assessment Framework for Cyber-Physical Security in Distribution Grids with Grid-Edge DERs

Integration of inverter-based distributed energy resources (DERs) is reshaping the landscape of distribution grids to fulfill the socioeconomic, environmental, and sustainability goals. Addressing the technological challenges of DER grid integration requires an adaptive communication layer for efficient DER management and control. This transition has given rise to a cyberphysical system (CPS) architecture within the distribution system, causing new vulnerabilities for cyberphysical attacks. To better address potential threats, this paper presents a comprehensive risk assessment framework for cyberphysical security in distribution grids with grid-edge DERs. The framework incorporates a detailed CPS model accounting for dynamic DER characteristics within the distribution grid. It identifies vulnerabilities in DER communication systems, models attack scenarios, and addresses communication latency crucial for inverter control timescales. Subsequently, the quantification of attack impacts employs an attack probability model including both the vulnerability and criticality of cyber components. The proposed risk assessment framework was validated through testing on the modified IEEE 13-node and 123-node test feeders.

cyberattack↗

DOE OSTI2020

FY20 NREL Overview: Transforming Energy

At the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), we are transforming today’s energy challenges into tomorrow’s solutions. Our scientific research and technological innovation will shape a highly efficient and resilient energy future. Our world is transforming around us with energy solutions becoming cleaner, cheaper, renewable, and more resilient. As the population grows and new technologies and devices are added to the grid, we must examine the effects and enhance security within our most critical systems. As environmental threats expand and human demands on urban centers increase, we need more sustainable and efficient ways of generating energy that considers resource competition worldwide. We need our grid to be adaptive, autonomous, and responsive. NREL continues to anticipate these challenges, offering solutions through research, innovation, analysis, partners, and people. We are building the foundation of tomorrow’s energy landscape and inspiring the economic growth of the future.

energy security↗

DOE OSTI2024

Radio Frequency Spectrum Audit to Inventory Private Cellular Base Station Infrastructure

The ever-changing cellular communication landscape makes it difficult to identify, map, and localize cellular base stations. Localizing cellular base stations provides various advantages, including information security, cybersecurity, spectrum management, and interference detection. For example, the MITRE ATT&CK® (Adversarial Tactics, Techniques, and Common Knowledge architecture) [1] and Common Attack Pattern Enumeration and Classification [2] emphasize the importance of being able to minimize the cyber security threat presented by unregulated private cellular base stations (PCBS). The majority of published research looks at the malicious use of PCBSs and focuses on using data retrieved from user equipment (UE), data obtained from an application on the UE, or data shared between the UE and a mobile network to locate it. This innovative strategy, however, focuses on the passively discovered uniqueness of radio frequency (RF) transmissions from commercial cellular infrastructure received in a designated monitoring position (DMP).

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Dynamic Coastal Response to Sea-level Rise Modifies Inundation Likelihood

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30x30m resolution predictions for more than 38,000 sq km of diverse coastal landscape in the northeastern United States. Probabilistic SLR projections, coastal elevation and vertical land movement are used to estimate likely future inundation levels. Then, conditioned on future inundation levels and the current land-cover type, we evaluate the likelihood of dynamic response versus inundation. We find that nearly 70% of this coastal landscape has some capacity to respond dynamically to SLR, and we show that inundation models over-predict land likely to submerge. This approach is well suited to guiding coastal resource management decisions that weigh future SLR impacts and uncertainty against ecological targets and economic constraints.

Climate-change impacts↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Fire Community Observatory: Interdisciplinary, AI-informed Post-Fire Rapid Response for Improved Water Cycle Science at Watershed Scale

Wildfire is an ecological disturbance that disrupts the hydrological cycle. In the past few years, a record number of multiple-and-compounding fires have occurred across urban-wildland gradients in the Western United States. Changes to watershed hydrological partitioning in response to fires (infiltration, runoff, evapotranspiration) presents unprecedented challenges to “Water-in-the-West” through negative impacts to water supply and its quality, and is a direct threat to downstream communities, groundwater, and drinking water supply infrastructure. While much work is being done to advance Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) use during fires for emergency response (i.e. predict fire movement, direct evacuations), significant potential exists to use AI/ML to address three scientific grand challenges that are rarely addressed in a convergent science context: 1) how to enhance the potential resiliency of a landscape before fire(s), 2) how to cost-effectively and optimally monitor watershed changes after fires, and 3) how to predict future hydrological and biogeochemical trajectories in fire-impacted watershed given climate change. This whitepaper addresses DOE Focal Area 1: Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resilience of Interdependent Water and Power Systems: A Literature Review and Conceptual Modeling Framework

As increasing pressures of population growth and climate change arise, water and power systems (WPS) are becoming increasingly interdependent. This interdependency has resulted in an increased potential for cascading failures, whereby the service interruption of one system can propagate to interdependent ones. This paper makes four contributions. First, we present an extensive literature review in the field of integrated water and power resilience, leveraging both institutional and technical literature research landscapes. We compare various modeling approaches used to model interdependent WPS and discuss the different metrics and definitions that are typically employed to quantify and define resilience. Relevant challenges and gaps related to modeling tools and metrics are also discussed, and appropriate recommendations are made. Second, the paper presents a visualization prototype for interdependent WPS to showcase water and power system interdependencies and reveal co-managed resilience strategies that can be used to improve resilience under different types of common threats. Third, we provide a conceptual decision support framework that simultaneously optimizes a portfolio of co-managed resilience strategies in the face of multiple, uncertain threats and addresses WPS interdependencies. Finally, we present future trends regarding digitalization, integrated planning, collaborative governance, and equity needs for building more resilient WPS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Centers and Digital Assurance Workshop 2 – Prioritizing Digital Assurance Challenges, Session 2

The second session of the TADA (Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance) Data Centers Cohort, held on November 10, 2025, focused on prioritizing digital assurance challenges at the intersection of data centers and the electric grid. Building on the foundational concepts introduced in Workshop 1, this session deepened the application of the Threat–Vulnerability–Consequence (TVC) framework and emphasized the urgency of addressing cybersecurity, supply chain integrity, and operational reliability. Participants explored the growing convergence of digital and physical systems, the expanding attack surface due to global supply chain dependencies, and the implications of AI-driven load behavior. Real-world incidents—including the Volt Typhoon campaign and vulnerabilities in Solarman and Deye platforms—were analyzed to illustrate the risks of unpatched systems, insecure APIs, and inadequate vendor oversight. Key themes included architecture and interface weaknesses, governance gaps, and human and procedural shortcomings. The workshop also examined the evolving regulatory landscape, highlighting new federal mandates around Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) compliance and large-load reliability standards. Through interactive exercises, stakeholders ranked and mapped digital assurance risks from their respective perspectives—utilities, operators, and vendors—laying the groundwork for mitigation strategies and shared accountability models to be developed in Workshop 3. Session 2 of 3.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of Avifauna Distributions Using Remote Sensing

Remote sensing has proved a fruitful tool for understanding the distribution and functioning of plant communities at multiple scales and to understand their coupling to bioclimatic and anthropogenic factors. But a similar approach to understanding the distribution and abundance of bird species as well as many other animal organisms is lacking. The increasing need for such understanding is evident with the recent examples of threats to human health via avian vector transmission and the increasing emphasis on global conservation biology. From experimental observations we know that species richness tends to track biological or environmental gradients. In this paper, we explore the fundamental idea that thermal and water-relation environments of birds, as estimated from satellite data and biophysical models, can define the constraints on their Occurrences and richness. We develop individual bird energy budget models and use these models to define the climate space niche of birds. Using satellite data assimilation products to drive our models, we disperse a distribution of virtual or actual bird species across the landscape in accordance to the limits expressed by their climate space niche. Here, we focus on the North American summer breeding season and give two examples to illustrate our approach. The first is a tundra loving bird, e.g. corresponding to the Culidris genus, and a second genus example, Myiurchus, that corresponds to arid or semi-arid regions. We define these birds in terms of their basic physiology and morphological characteristics, construct avian energetic simulations to predict their allowable metabolic ranges and climate space limits.

Smith, James A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Utility-Scale Operational Consequences for Solar Grid Services

This report delves into the critical aspects of grid services provided by solar inverter-based resources (IBRs), with an emphasis on the evolving landscape of microgrids, virtual power plants (VPPs), aggregators, and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS). As the energy sector undergoes a transformative shift towards more decentralized and resilient grid architectures, understanding the multifaceted risks associated with these technologies becomes paramount. The report categorizes these risks into organizational, technical, and procedural domains, providing a thorough risk assessment framework that stakeholders can utilize to anticipate and mitigate potential issues. In addressing the increasing complexity of grid interconnections, the report highlights the importance of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). By embedding engineering controls and cybersecurity measures into the early stages of system design, this approach aims to fortify grid infrastructure against emerging cyber threats. The analysis includes an exploration of best practices and strategies for integrating CIE principles to enhance grid security and resilience. To provide practical insights, the report conducts a detailed consequence analysis of various grid services and cyber mitigations that can be applied through the interconnection process. This analysis evaluates the potential impacts of different failure modes and vulnerabilities, offering a clear understanding of the consequences that could arise from disruptions within the energy grid. The findings are further enriched by a series of case studies that illustrate real-world scenarios and lessons learned from past incidents. Through this comprehensive examination of grid services and their criticality, the report aims to prepare industry professionals with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate the complexities of modern energy systems. By providing a comprehensive approach that includes risk assessment, cybersecurity, and consequence analysis, solar stakeholders can more effectively guarantee the reliability, efficiency, and security of the energy grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗