Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Time Series Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Forecasting of Distributed Temperature Sensing in a Thermal Hydraulic System With Machine Learning and Statistical Models

We benchmark performance of long-short term memory (LSTM) network machine learning model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) statistical model in temporal forecasting of distributed temperature sensing (DTS). Data in this study consists of fluid temperature transient measured with two co-located Rayleigh scattering fiber optic sensors (FOS) in a forced convection mixing zone of a thermal tee. We treat each gauge of a FOS as an independent temperature sensor. We first study prediction of DTS time series using Vanilla LSTM and ARIMA models trained on prior history of the same FOS that is used for testing. The results yield maximum absolute percentage error (MaxAPE) and root mean squared percentage error (RMSPE) of 1.58% and 0.06% for ARIMA, and 3.14% and 0.44% for LSTM, respectively. Next, we investigate zero-shot forecasting (ZSF) with LSTM and ARIMA trained on history of the co-located FOS only, which is advantageous when limited training data is available. The ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE values for ARIMA are comparable to those of the Vanilla use case, while the error values for LSTM increase. We show that in ZSF, performance of LSTM network can be improved by training on most correlated gauges between the two FOS, which are identified by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient. The improved ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE for LSTM are 4.4% and 0.33%, respectively. Performance of ZSF LSTM can be further enhanced through transfer learning (TL), where LSTM is re-trained on a subset of the FOS that is the target of forecasting. We show that LSTM pre-trained on correlated dataset and re-trained on 30% of testing target dataset achieves MaxAPE and RMSPE values of 2.32% and 0.28%, respectively.

ARIMA↗
DOE OSTI2020

Correlation-Aided Robust Decentralized Dynamic State Estimation of Power Systems with Unknown Control Inputs

This paper proposes a correlation-aided robust adaptive unscented Kalman filter for power system decentralized dynamic state estimation with unknown inputs, termed as robust AUKF-UI. The temporal and spatial correlations among the unknown inputs are used to derive a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model in an adaptive manner. This VAR model is further integrated together with state transition and measurement models for joint state and unknown inputs estimation. This allows taking into account the implicit cross-correlations between the states and the unknown inputs. As a result, the rank requirement for unknown input vector estimation is relaxed and the local generator frequency measurement is not required. The temporal correlations of time series innovation vectors, predicted state and input vectors are also leveraged by the robust AUKFUI to detect, identify and process bad data. Without these correlations, it is very challenging to address bad data with unknown inputs. Simulation results carried out on the IEEE 39-bus system demonstrate that the proposed robust AUKF-UI achieves much better results than other methods in the presence of low measurement redundancy, strong nonlinearity, and bad data.

Zhao, Junbo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Infused AI/ML Based Digital-Twin Framework for Flow-Induced-Vibration Damage Prediction in a Nuclear Reactor Heat Exchanger

This report summarizes some of the ongoing work related to the development of an expert-elicitation-digital-twin framework for real time damage state prediction in heat exchanger components of a nuclear reactor. The framework is targeted towards predicting damage associated with coupled low cycle fatigue (associated with regular heat-up, cool-down and power operation transients) and high cycle fatigue (associated with flow induced vibration transients). The overall framework will be based on a NoSQL based database, physics-infused-geometry-dependent virtual-sensor data, different AI/ML techniques-based data-driven-predictive-model applications (Apps) and real-time plant sensor measurements available through few existing sensors. Towards this overall goal, this report updates some of the ongoing work, such as on implementation of a NoSQL Database (such as MongoDB), FE based heat transfer analysis of a heat exchanger (e.g. of a PWR steam generator) for generating geometry-dependent virtual sensor data and evaluation of various AI/ML models such as based on multivariate linear regression, ensembled decision-tree based Random-Forest and Gradient-Boosting regression and high-dimensional-kernel-function-transformation based Support-Vector-Machine regression models. The AI/ML models were evaluated for predicting multi-time-series thermal states at thousands of 3D point-clouds

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep anomaly detection for industrial systems: a case study

We explore the use of deep neural networks for anomaly detection of industrial systems where the data are multivariate time series measurements. We formulate the problem as a self-supervised learning where data under normal operation are used to train a deep neural network autoregressive model, i.e., use a window of time series data to predict future data values. The aim of such a model is to learn to represent the system dynamic behavior under normal conditions, while expect higher model vs. measurement discrepancies under faulty conditions. In real world applications, many control settings are discrete in nature. In this paper, vector embedding and joint losses are employed to deal with such situations. Both LSTM and CNN based deep neural network backbones are studied on the Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) testbed datasets. Also, Support Vector Data Description (SVDD) method is adapted to such anomaly detection settings with deep neural networks. Evaluation methods and results are discussed based on the SWaT dataset along with potential pitfalls.

anomaly detection, deep neural network↗
DOE OSTI2020

Delegated Regressor, A Robust Approach for Automated Anomaly Detection in the Soil Radon Time Series Data

We propose a new method based on the idea of delegating regressors for predicting the soil radon gas concentration (SRGC) and anomalies in radon or any other time series data. The proposed method is compared to different traditional boosting e.g., Extreme Gradient Boosting (EGB) and simple regression methods e.g., support vector regressors with linear kernel and radial kernel in terms of accurate predictions. R language has been used for the statistical analysis of radon time series (RTS) data. The results obtained show that the proposed methodology predicts SRGC more accurately when compared to different traditional boosting and regression methods. The best correlation is found between the actual and predicted radon concentration for window size of 2 i.e., two days before and after the start of seismic activities. RTS data was collected from 05 February 2017 to 16 February 2018, including 7 seismic events recorded during the study period. Findings of study show that the proposed methodology predicts the SRGC with more precision, for all the window sizes, by overlapping predicted with the actual radon time series concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of chronic kidney disease progression using recurrent neural network and electronic health records

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive loss in kidney function. Early detection of patients who will progress to late-stage CKD is of paramount importance for patient care. To address this, we develop a pipeline to process longitudinal electronic heath records (EHRs) and construct recurrent neural network (RNN) models to predict CKD progression from stages II/III to stages IV/V. The RNN model generates predictions based on time-series records of patients, including repeated lab tests and other clinical variables. Our investigation reveals that using a single variable, the recorded estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time, the RNN model achieves an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.957 for predicting future CKD progression. When additional clinical variables, such as demographics, vital information, lab test results, and health behaviors, are incorporated, the average AUROC increases to 0.967. In both scenarios, the standard deviation of the AUROC across cross-validation trials is less than 0.01, indicating a stable and high prediction accuracy. Our analysis results demonstrate the proposed RNN model outperforms existing standard approaches, including static and dynamic Cox proportional hazards models, random forest, and LightGBM. The utilization of the RNN model and the time-series data of previous eGFR measurements underscores its potential as a straightforward and effective tool for assessing the clinical risk of CKD patients concerning their disease progression.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Structure-Informed Graph Learning of Networked Dependencies for Online Prediction of Power System Transient Dynamics

Online transient analysis plays an increasingly important role in dynamic power grids as the renewable generation continues growing. Traditional numerical methods for transient analysis not only are computationally intensive but also require precise contingency information as input, and therefore, are not suitable for online applications. Existing online transient assessment studies focus on the determination of post-contingency system stability or stability margin. Here, this paper develops a novel graph-learning framework, Deep-learning Neural Representation or DNR, for online prediction, of the time-series trajectories of the system states using initial system responses that can be measured by phasor measurement units (PMUs). The proposed DNR framework consists of two sequential modules: a Network Constructor that captures network dependencies among generators, and a Dynamics Predictor that predicts the system trajectories. The key to improved prediction performance is the introduction of the spatio-temporal message-passing operations into graph neural networks with structural knowledge. Its effectiveness and scalability are validated through comparative studies, demonstrating the prediction performance under different contingency scenarios for systems of different sizes. This framework provides a solution to online predicting post-fault system dynamics based on real-time PMU measurements. Additionally, it can also be applied to facilitate the offline transient simulation without simulating the entire trajectories.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Symbolic pregression: Discovering physical laws from distorted video

In this work, we present a method for unsupervised learning of equations of motion for objects in raw and optionally distorted unlabeled synthetic video (or, more generally, for discovering and modeling predictable features in time-series data). We first train an autoencoder that maps each video frame into a low-dimensional latent space where the laws of motion are as simple as possible, by minimizing a combination of nonlinearity, acceleration, and prediction error. Differential equations describing the motion are then discovered using Pareto-optimal symbolic regression. We find that our pre-regression (“pregression”) step is able to rediscover Cartesian coordinates of unlabeled moving objects even when the video is distorted by a generalized lens. Using intuition from multidimensional knot theory, we find that the pregression step is facilitated by first adding extra latent space dimensions to avoid topological problems during training and then removing these extra dimensions via principal component analysis. An inertial frame is autodiscovered by minimizing the combined equation complexity for multiple experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

MAD: Self-Supervised Masked Anomaly Detection Task for Multivariate Time Series

In this paper, we introduce Masked Anomaly Detection (MAD), a general self-supervised learning task for multivariate time series anomaly detection. With the increasing availability of sensor data from industrial systems, being able to detecting anomalies from streams of multivariate time series data is of significant importance. Given the scarcity of anomalies in real-world applications, the majority of literature has been focusing on modeling normality. The learned normal representations can empower anomaly detection as the model has learned to capture certain key underlying data regularities. A typical formulation is to learn a predictive model, i.e., use a window of time series data to predict future data values. In this paper, we propose an alternative self-supervised learning task. By randomly masking a portion of the inputs and training a model to estimate them using the remaining ones, MAD is an improvement over the traditional left-to-right next step prediction (NSP) task. Our experimental results demonstrate that MAD can achieve better anomaly detection rates over traditional NSP approaches when using exactly the same neural network (NN) base models, and can be modified to run as fast as NSP models during test time on the same hardware, thus making it an ideal upgrade for many existing NSP-based NN anomaly detection models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial intelligence time series forecasting for feed-forward laser stabilization

Laser plasma accelerators, typically operating at 1–10 Hz repetition rates, have the ability to produce high-quality electron beams in compact, all-optical-driven configurations, with the electron beams uniquely suited for a wide variety of accelerator-based applications. However, fluctuations and drifts in the laser delivery to the meter-scaled and below plasma target (the electron beam source) will translate into electron beam source variations that can limit their utility for demanding applications like light sources or linear colliders. Commercially available active feedback laser stabilization systems are intrinsically bandwidth limited due to their integration with multi-inch corrective mirror mounts which minimizes their effectiveness. In this manuscript, we present a Neural Network time series forecaster that can predict laser position fluctuations of the laser delivery to the final target well ahead of a future laser shot. The Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) of the prediction accuracy was < 2 μ m for a 1 / e 2 beam radius of 34 μ m . Our feed-forward approach serves as a first-step in circumventing the bandwidth limitations imposed by the currently available stabilization systems since it allows for mirrors to be moved into position ahead of time to offset the predicted future position drift. This will help advance laser plasma accelerator research by providing greater robustness and stability needed for its applications.

Berger, Curtis↗
DOE OSTI2022

An LSTM Deep Learning Network for ¿Background Radiation Prediction

Determination of appropriate background radiation is important in any measurement application. Environmental radiation monitors and monitors used to assess dose to individuals outside of controlled areas are particularly susceptible to changes in readings due to fluctuations in the environmental conditions. These fluctuations (e.g. radon progeny concentrations) lead to changes in the detector response in the actual radiation environment, and they need to be taken into account when extracting the net operational doses. Work has been ongoing to apply advances in Deep Learning and Artificial Intelligence to account for changes in detector responses based on environmental parameters; in particular, a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) Deep Learning architecture has been utilized to incorporate time-series data into a prediction model. In this work, we present the current status of the project to predict radiation measurements based on meteorological conditions and air packet trajectories extracted using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT4) model.

Degtiarenko, Pavel↗
DOE OSTI2023

Early Alarm: Robust Event Analysis for Power Systems using 1-D Fully Convolutional Network

This work presents a novel deep learning model for early, accurate, and robust detection, recognition, and temporal localization of multi-type events in large-scale power systems. The proposed method develops a unified 1-D fully convolutional network (FCN) model that takes time series of raw frequency signals measured from a power system as input, extracts distinguishing features, and predicts at every temporal point in the time series if an event is happening and what the type of the event is. Compared to existing methods, the proposed model eliminates the necessity for hand-crafted feature extraction or complicated data pre-processing, can flexibly handle input signals of arbitrary length, and precisely infer the event occurrence time. Most importantly, the model is intentionally trained with incomplete patterns, such that it is more robust to partial features of an event which is common in real-world online recognition, resulting in early alarm for power system failures. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior performance to the state-of-the-art, and also shows strong robustness to noise and system oscillations.

Li, Chengcheng↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transient Weighted Moving-Average Model of Photovoltaic Module Back-Surface Temperature

Accurate modeling of photovoltaic (PV) performance requires the precise calculation of module temperature. Currently, most temperature models rely on steady-state assumptions that do not account for the transient climatic conditions and thermal mass of the module. On the other hand, complex physics-based transient models are computationally expensive and difficult to parameterize. In order to address this, a new approach to transient thermal modeling was developed, in which the steady-state predictions from previous timesteps are weighted and averaged to accurately predict the module temperature at finer time scales. This model is informed by 3-D finite-element analyses, which are used to calculate the effect of wind speed and module unit mass on module temperature. The model, in application, serves as an added filter over existing steady-state models that smooths out erroneous values that are a result of intermittency in solar resource. Validation of this moving-average model has shown that it can improve the overall PV energy performance model accuracy by as much as 0.58% over steady-state models based on mean absolute error improvements and can significantly reduce the variability between the model predictions and measured temperature times series data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

System and method for wave prediction

A method and system for prediction of wave properties include collecting time series data streams from one or more wave measurement devices and processing the data using a wave-prediction algorithm to identify the frequency components of the data and compute wave parameters. The wave-field is propagated in space and time to predict wave height, speed, and velocity at a target location. A sliding window approach is used to continuously update the prediction in real-time.

Previsic, Mirko↗
DOE OSTI2024

System and method for wave prediction

A method and system for prediction of wave properties include collecting time-series data streams from one or more wave measurement devices and processing the data to identify data parameters to establish boundary conditions of a numerical model. The numerical model may be used to compute a predicted wave field of time-series data for a variety of wave properties at a target location.

Previsic, Mirko↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term missing value imputation for time series data using deep neural networks

We present an approach that uses a deep learning model, in particular, a MultiLayer Perceptron, for estimating the missing values of a variable in multivariate time series data. We focus on filling a long continuous gap (e.g., multiple months of missing daily observations) rather than on individual randomly missing observations. Our proposed gap filling algorithm uses an automated method for determining the optimal MLP model architecture, thus allowing for optimal prediction performance for the given time series. We tested our approach by filling gaps of various lengths (three months to three years) in three environmental datasets with different time series characteristics, namely daily groundwater levels, daily soil moisture, and hourly Net Ecosystem Exchange. We compared the accuracy of the gap-filled values obtained with our approach to the widely used R-based time series gap filling methods ImputeTS and mtsdi. The results indicate that using an MLP for filling a large gap leads to better results, especially when the data behave nonlinearly. Thus, our approach enables the use of datasets that have a large gap in one variable, which is common in many long-term environmental monitoring observations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantification of trace iodine using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy for real-time monitoring of nuclear off-gas streams

This study evaluated the potential of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for real-time monitoring of trace gas-phase iodine, which is an element of high significance in nuclear applications due to its long radioactive half-life (as iodine-129), volatility, and biological impact. In anticipation of iodine evolving into off-gas systems in molten salt reactor and nuclear fuel recycling applications, this research aimed to assess LIBS performance in flowing argon and helium matrices; optimize measurement parameters using a multichannel spectrometer; and perform calibrations to assess predictive capabilities and limits of detection (LODs). Experimental results successfully measured gas-phase iodine in flowing argon and helium; however, trace iodine was not detected in air. Optimal delay times were determined to be 10 µs for argon and 1 µs for helium, which are consistent with the expected shorter plasma lifetime in helium relative to argon. An emission line survey was provided with the 206.16, 804.37, 902.24, and 905.83 nm peaks, which were identified as the strongest emission peaks. Calibration models were successfully built in both helium and argon, achieving LODs down to 3 ppm in helium and 5 ppm in argon. The iodine emission at 905.83 nm emerged as the most robust for calibration and was subsequently applied to a time series dataset in argon. The predictive trace confirmed the feasibility of employing LIBS for continuous, online quantification of trace iodine in flowing gas systems.

Andrews, Hunter B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pipeline Hydrogen Decarbonization and Repurposing Analyzers (P-HyDRAs)

The Pipeline Hydrogen Decarbonization and Repurposing Analyzers (P-HyDRAs) are a set of prototype computational tools for simulating and optimizing midstream natural gas pipeline system operations subject to location and time-dependent hydrogen blending. The models can accurately resolve dynamic gas flows through large-scale pipeline networks using non-ideal gas equations of state. The codes can be used as decision support for planning and design decisions involving intra-day energy flow schedules as well as spatiotemporal economic values of natural gas, hydrogen, and net energy delivered to consumers while ensuring that pipeline hydraulic limitations, gas compressor station constraints, operational factors, and pre-existing shipping contracts are satisfied. The inputs to the codes are a model of the pipeline system as well as time-series data that specify boundary conditions on the network. For optimization, the code module requires price and quantity offers for natural gas and hydrogen and price and quantity bids for energy, which are used as time-dependent constraints in an optimal control problem. The outputs are time-series data that provide a predictive simulation of gas flows, mass fractions, and pressures, or with additional degrees of freedom give an approximately optimal solution for gas injections/withdrawals, compressor settings, and sensitivities to the objective function that provide locational values of energy.

Zlotnik, Anatoly↗