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At least 73 records · Page 4

Effect of Aerosols on Cloud Field with Satellite-Derived Data and GCM Simulation

Numerical experiment was performed using an general circulation model (GCM) including aerosol indirect effect into water cloud and the simulated global distribution of cloud droplet radii was compared with the global distribution of cloud effective radii retrieved from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Comparisons of GCM calculation with AVHRR retrieval showed that our GCM generally can simulate the global characteristics of cloud droplet radii such as a land-sea contrast associated with difference of aerosol abundance and coastal region feature due to aerosol injection from adjacent continental area. AVHRR retrieval and GCM simulation, however, are turned out to show disagreement over tropical region. AVHRR retrieval may tend to overestimate droplet radii due to the contamination of signal by drizzles and ice particles, whereas our GCM does not treat aerosol indirect effect in deep convective clouds predominant over tropics. Over equatorial central Pacific, where satellite retrieval may suffer from statistical biases, satellite retrieval and GCM simulation are also found to be different. Keywords: aerosol indirect effect

Suzuki, Kentaroh↗

Quantification and Mitigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization and Climate Change in the Tropical Coastal City of San Juan, Puerto Rico

Urbanization, along with other cases of land cover and land use changes, has significant climate impacts in tropical regions with the added complexity of occurring within the context of global warming. The individual and combined effects of these two factors on the surface energy balance of a tropical city are investigated by use of an integrated atmospheric modeling approach, taking the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), Puerto Rico as the test case. To achieve this goal, an ensemble of climate and weather simulations is performed, with the climate scenarios combining urban development and sprawl with regional climate change over the past 50 years, and the short-term simulations designed to test the sensitivity to different urban vegetation configurations as mitigating alternatives. As indicator of change, we use the thermal response number (TRN), which is a measure of the sensible heating to the thermal storage of a surface or region, and the Bowen ratio, which is defined as the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes. The TRN of the area occupied by the SJMA has decreased as a consequence of replacing the low land coastal plain vegetation with man made materials, indicating that it takes less energy to raise the surface temperature of the urban area, whereas the TRN of forested regions has remained virtually unchanged. The global warming signal also has effects on the thermal response of the SJMA, where dryer current conditions generate lower TRN values. Differences due to global warming are more evident in the Bowen ratio pattern, mostly associated with the drier present conditions observed and its effects on sensible and latent heat fluxes. In terms of testing different mitigation strategies, the short-term simulations show that the urban area is more efficient in partitioning surface energy balance terms when green roofs are specified, as opposed to including vegetation inside the urban core.

Comarazamy, Daniel↗

Seasonal, Spectral, and Regional Characterization of Deep Convective Clouds Top-of-Atmosphere Bidirectional Reflectance for Improved Satellite Intercalibration

The NASA CERES project provides the scientific community with regional broadband fluxes designed for long-term climate monitoring. The CERES climate quality dataset requires that the CERES instrument, as well as the MODIS and VIIRS imager records to be radiometrically stable over time. Deep Convective Clouds (DCCs) are spectrally uniform, near-Lambertian natural diffusers offering high signal-to-noise ratio and stable radiometric response in the VIS-NIR spectrum. For shortwave infrared (SWIR) wavelengths greater than 1.2µm, the DCC response is significantly influenced by cloud particle size and atmospheric absorption. Previous studies improved the characterization of the SWIR band DCC radiance, by using channel specific monthly empirical BRDFs as well as using the probability density function mean statistic to track the SWIR band stability. Also, that the DCC radiance is greater over land than over ocean and that the TWP DCC radiance has the lowest tropical DCC radiance. This study confirms and improves upon the previous studies. The study stratified the tropics regionally into land and ocean domains and applied their respective ocean-only and land-only empirical monthly BRDFs and normalized the land DCC BRDF corrected radiances with their ocean counterpart. This approach provided the most stable DCC response. The DCC BRDF corrected radiance monthly standard error was 0.24%, 0.62%, 0.59%, and 0.43% for the 1.24µm, 1.37µm, 1.61µm, and 2.25µm SWIR bands, which reduced the standard error 20%, 13%, 24%, and 26%, respectively when compared with the all-surface approach. The same approach was attempted over the Tropical Western Pacific and found not to be an improvement over the tropical domain. Further stratification of the tropical domain will need to balance sufficient sampling while accounting for regional DCC radiance differences.

Prathana Khakurel↗

Two Years of Simultaneous K(sub a)-Band Measurements: Goldstone, CA; White Sands, NM; and Guam, USA

In order to statistically characterize the effect of the Earth's atmosphere on Ka-Band links, site test interferometers (STIs) have been deployed at three of NASA s operational sites to directly measure each site's tropospheric phase stability and rain attenuation. These STIs are composed of two antennas on a short baseline (less than 1km) that observe the same unmodulated beacon signal broadcast from a geostationary satellite (e.g., Anik F2). The STIs are used to measure the differential phase between the two received signals as well as the individual signal attenuation at each terminal. There are currently three NASA sites utilizing STIs; the Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex near Barstow, California; the White Sands Complex in Las Cruces, New Mexico; and the Guam Remote Ground Terminal on the island of Guam. The first two sites are both located in desert regions that have highly similar climates in terms of their seasonal temperatures, average humidity, and annual rain fall (the primary factors in determining phase stability). In contrast, Guam is in a tropical region with drastically higher annual rainfall and humidity. Five station years of data have been collected in Goldstone, three in White Sands, and two in Guam, yielding two years of simultaneous data collection across all three sites. During this period of simultaneous data collection, the root-mean-square (RMS) of the time delay fluctuations stayed under 2.40 picoseconds for 90% of the time in Goldstone, under 2.07 picoseconds for 90% of the time in White Sands, and under 10.13 picoseconds for 90% of the time in Guam. For the 99th percentile, the statistics were 6.32 ps, 6.03 ps, and 24.85 ps, respectively. These values, as well as various other site quality characteristics, will be used to determine the suitability of these sites for NASA s future communication services at Ka-Band.

Acosta, Roberto J.↗

Periodic and aperiodic ozone variations in the middle and upper stratosphere

Umkehr, ozonesonde and satellite observations are used to determine the height/latitude distribution of the amplitude and phase of the periodic components of the variation in the ozone mixing ratio in the middle and upper stratosphere. The amplitude of the first (annual) harmonic is found to be small in the subtropics and to increase to a maximum at polar latitudes. In addition, it increases with height in the mid and upper stratosphere to an apparent maximum just below the stratosphere. The second (semi-annual) harmonic possesses an amplitude that is largest in tropical regions and in subpolar regions at a level of about 40 km. Very little ozone variation is seen above 30 km with dominant periods close to the quasi-biennial period of total ozone observed in the tropics. The percentage of the total variance of the ozone mixing ratio accounted for by the first harmonic is found to be larger than 60 percent at all heights from 20 deg to 60 deg latitude in both hemispheres (except near 40 km in the Northern Hemisphere).

London, J.↗

Scientific Impacts of Wind Direction Errors

An assessment on the scientific impact of random errors in wind direction (less than 45 deg) retrieved from space-based observations under weak wind (less than 7 m/s ) conditions was made. averages, and these weak winds cover most of the tropical, sub-tropical, and coastal oceans. Introduction of these errors in the semi-daily winds causes, on average, 5% changes of the yearly mean Ekman and Sverdrup volume transports computed directly from the winds, respectively. These poleward movements of water are the main mechanisms to redistribute heat from the warmer tropical region to the colder high- latitude regions, and they are the major manifestations of the ocean's function in modifying Earth's climate. Simulation by an ocean general circulation model shows that the wind errors introduce a 5% error in the meridional heat transport at tropical latitudes. The simulation also shows that the erroneous winds cause a pile-up of warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar to the conditions during El Nino episode. Similar wind directional errors cause significant change in sea-surface temperature and sea-level patterns in coastal oceans in a coastal model simulation. Previous studies have shown that assimilation of scatterometer winds improves 3-5 day weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. When directional information below 7 m/s was withheld, approximately 40% of the improvement was lost

Liu, W. Timothy↗

Scientific impacts of wind direction errors

An assessment on the scientific impact of random errors in wind direction (< 45°) retrieved from space-based observations under weak wind (< 7 m/s) conditions was made. Half of the winds over global oceans are below 7 m/s, in their long-term averages, and these weak winds cover most of the tropical, sub-tropical, and coastal oceans. Introduction of these errors in the semi-daily winds causes, on average, 5% changes of the yearly mean Ekman and Sverdrup volume transports computed directly from the winds, respectively. These poleward movements of water are the main mechanisms to redistribute heat from the warmer tropical region to the colder highlatitude regions, and they are the major manifestations of the ocean’s function in modifying Earth’s climate. Simulation by an ocean general circulation model shows that the wind errors introduce a 5% error in the meridional heat transport at tropical latitudes. The simulation also shows that the erroneous winds cause a pile-up of warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar to the conditions during El Niño episode. Similar wind directional errors cause significant change in sea-surface temperature and sea-level patterns in coastal oceans in a coastal model simulation. Previous studies have shown that assimilation of scatterometer winds improves 3–5 day weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. When directional information below 7 m/s was withheld, approximately 40% of the improvement was lost.

Atlas, Robert↗

El Niño Related Tropical Land Surface Water and Energy Response in MERRA-2

Though El Niño events each have distinct evolutionary character they typically provide systematic large scale forcing for warming and increased drought frequency across the tropical continents. We assess this response in the MERRA-2 reanalysis and in a ten-member model AMIP ensemble. The lagged response (3-4 months) of mean tropical land temperature to El Niño warming in the Pacific Ocean is well represented. MERRA-2 reproduces the patterns of precipitation in the tropical regions, while the AMIP ensemble reproduces some regional responses better than others. Model skill is dependent on event forcing strength and temporal proximity to the peak of the sea surface warming. A composite approach centered on maximum Niño3.4 SSTs and lag relationships to energy fluxes and transports is used to identify mechanisms supporting tropical land warming. The composite necessarily moderates weather scale variability of the individual events, while retaining the systematic features across all events. We find that that reduced continental upward motions lead to reduced cloudiness and more shortwave radiation at the surface, as well as reduced precipitation. The increased shortwave heating at the land surface, along with reduced soil moisture leads to warmer surface temperature, more sensible heating and warming of the lower troposphere. While the composite provides a broad picture of the mechanisms governing the hydrologic response to El Niño forcing, the regional and temporal response in any given event can be quite variable. The 2015-16 El Niño, one of the strongest events, demonstrates some of the forced response noted in the composite, but with shifts in the evolution that depart from the composite, demonstrating the limitations of the composite and individuality of El Niño.

Michael G Bosilovich↗

Mitigating Satellite-Based Fire Sampling Limitations in Deriving Biomass Burning Emission Rates: Application to WRF-Chem Model over the Northern sub-Saharan African Region

Largely used in several independent estimates of fire emissions, fire products based on MODIS sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua polar-orbiting satellites have a number of inherent limitations, including (a) inability to detect fires below clouds, (b) significant decrease of detection sensitivity at the edge of scan where pixel sizes are much larger than at nadir, and (c) gaps between adjacent swaths in tropical regions. To remedy these limitations, an empirical method is developed here and applied to correct fire emission estimates based on MODIS pixel level fire radiative power measurements and emission coefficients from the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) biomass burning emission inventory. The analysis was performed for January 2010 over the northern sub-Saharan African region. Simulations from WRF-Chem model using original and adjusted emissions are compared with the aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from MODIS and AERONET as well as aerosol vertical profile from CALIOP data. The comparison confirmed an 30-50% improvement in the model simulation performance (in terms of correlation, bias, and spatial pattern of AOD with respect to observations) by the adjusted emissions that not only increases the original emission amount by a factor of two but also results in the spatially continuous estimates of instantaneous fire emissions at daily time scales. Such improvement cannot be achieved by simply scaling the original emission across the study domain. Even with this improvement, a factor of two underestimations still exists in the modeled AOD, which is within the current global fire emissions uncertainty envelope. Plain Language Summary Polar-orbiting satellites sensors, such as MODIS, have limitations in detecting fires under clouds or when viewing angles are large or in the gaps among satellites' different ground swaths. Here we developed an empirical method to mitigate the effect of these limitations in fire emission estimate. The method is applied to a fire emission inventory (FEER) based on MODIS. We show that, with our method, the adjusted emission inventory improves WRF-Chem simulation of smoke transport and distribution.

emissions properties↗

Numerical experiments in climate stability.

Two semiempirical climate models are formulated as time-dependent problems in order to study the stability of their asymptotic steady state equilibrium solutions to perturbations in internal (in this case, initial) conditions. For fixed external conditions the time-dependent versions of these models exhibit fully transitive behavior to positive perturbations in initial conditions, slight intransivity to negative perturbations up to -18 K, and an ice-covered earth regime is obtained for extremely large negative perturbations in initial temperatures (below -18 K). The parametrization found to be most critical in these models is the albedo-temperature coupling, especially in tropical regions. The temperature albedo parametrization from an intransitive climate model used in a time-dependent form of one of the preceding models is found to be highly sensitive to negative perturbations in both internal and external conditions. Numerical experimentation with these semiempirical models shows the important role of the tropics in maintaining the equilibrium climate and suggests that the radiation balance in equatorial latitudes might have a controlling influence on the equatorward extent of the polar ice cap.

Schneider, S. H.↗

Thickness of tropical ice and photosynthesis on a snowball Earth

On a completely ice-covered "snowball" Earth the thickness of ice in the tropical regions would be limited by the sunlight penetrating into the ice cover and by the latent heat flux generated by freezing at the ice bottom--the freezing rate would balance the sublimation rate from the top of the ice cover. Heat transfer models of the perennially ice-covered Antarctic dry valley lakes applied to the snowball Earth indicate that the tropical ice cover would have a thickness of 10 m or less with a corresponding transmissivity of > 0.1%. This light level is adequate for photosynthesis and could explain the survival of the eukaryotic algae.

NASA Center ARC↗

Carbon Monitoring System Flux Estimation and Attribution: Impact of ACOS-GOSAT X(CO2) Sampling on the Inference of Terrestrial Biospheric Sources and Sinks

Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), we investigate the impact of JAXA Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite 'IBUKI' (GOSAT) sampling on the estimation of terrestrial biospheric flux with the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) estimation and attribution strategy. The simulated observations in the OSSE use the actual column carbon dioxide (X(CO2)) b2.9 retrieval sensitivity and quality control for the year 2010 processed through the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space algorithm. CMS-Flux is a variational inversion system that uses the GEOS-Chem forward and adjoint model forced by a suite of observationally constrained fluxes from ocean, land and anthropogenic models. We investigate the impact of GOSAT sampling on flux estimation in two aspects: 1) random error uncertainty reduction and 2) the global and regional bias in posterior flux resulted from the spatiotemporally biased GOSAT sampling. Based on Monte Carlo calculations, we find that global average flux uncertainty reduction ranges from 25% in September to 60% in July. When aggregated to the 11 land regions designated by the phase 3 of the Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project, the annual mean uncertainty reduction ranges from 10% over North American boreal to 38% over South American temperate, which is driven by observational coverage and the magnitude of prior flux uncertainty. The uncertainty reduction over the South American tropical region is 30%, even with sparse observation coverage. We show that this reduction results from the large prior flux uncertainty and the impact of non-local observations. Given the assumed prior error statistics, the degree of freedom for signal is approx.1132 for 1-yr of the 74 055 GOSAT X(CO2) observations, which indicates that GOSAT provides approx.1132 independent pieces of information about surface fluxes. We quantify the impact of GOSAT's spatiotemporally sampling on the posterior flux, and find that a 0.7 gigatons of carbon bias in the global annual posterior flux resulted from the seasonally and diurnally biased sampling when using a diagonal prior flux error covariance.

biased sampling↗

Spectral Retrieval of Latent Heating Profiles from TRMM PR Data: Comparison of Look-Up Tables

The primary goal of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is to use the information about distributions of precipitation to determine the four dimensional (i.e., temporal and spatial) patterns of latent heating over the whole tropical region. The Spectral Latent Heating (SLH) algorithm has been developed to estimate latent heating profiles for the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) with a cloud- resolving model (CRM). The method uses CRM- generated heating profile look-up tables for the three rain types; convective, shallow stratiform, and anvil rain (deep stratiform with a melting level). For convective and shallow stratiform regions, the look-up table refers to the precipitation top height (PTH). For anvil region, on the other hand, the look- up table refers to the precipitation rate at the melting level instead of PTH. For global applications, it is necessary to examine the universality of the look-up table. In this paper, we compare the look-up tables produced from the numerical simulations of cloud ensembles forced with the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Response Experiment (COARE) data and the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) data. There are some notable differences between the TOGA-COARE table and the GATE table, especially for the convective heating. First, there is larger number of deepest convective profiles in the TOGA-COARE table than in the GATE table, mainly due to the differences in SST. Second, shallow convective heating is stronger in the TOGA COARE table than in the GATE table. This might be attributable to the difference in the strength of the low-level inversions. Third, altitudes of convective heating maxima are larger in the TOGA COARE table than in the GATE table. Levels of convective heating maxima are located just below the melting level, because warm-rain processes are prevalent in tropical oceanic convective systems. Differences in levels of convective heating maxima probably reflect differences in melting layer heights. We are now extending our study to simulations of other field experiments (e.g. SCSMEX and ARM) in order to examine the universality of the look-up table. The impact of look-up tables on the retrieved latent heating profiles will also be assessed.

Shige, Shoichi↗

A Framework for Evaluating Climate Model Performance Metrics

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables?e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to overproduce precipitation, this result could indicate that the metric is effective in identifying models which simulate more realistic precipitation. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to identify performance metrics for advising better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Noel C Baker↗

Aquatic sources and sinks for nitrous oxide

Data are presented which suggest the complexity of the aquatic nitrogen cycle as it affects N2O. The data are from studies made in the central and south-east tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean and in Chesapeake Bay. The data indicate that oxidation of ammonium and amino nitrogen and nitrification form the principle source for marine N2O. It is estimated that the yearly global yield for oceanic N2O is less than about 10 to the 7th power tons. The consumption of atmospheric N2O by the open ocean has not been evidenced, although data from the south-east tropical Pacific and Chesapeake Bay show the consumption of dissolved N2O in low-oxygen conditions. Preliminary observations have also indicated the consumption of atmospheric N2O by aquatic systems such as freshwater pond and a tidal saltmarsh.

Elkins, J. W.↗

Time evolution of cloud fields from ISCCP observations

The time series of 280 km regional cloud amounts to characterize the evolution of the cloud fields is presented. New observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) allow use of this data to attack the problem of simulating clouds and cloud changes from purely an empirical approach. It is shown that both persistence of cloud and cloud lifetimes indicate very long time scales to 40 hours for lifetime and weeks for persistent cloud systems. The simulation of these effects in GCM's requires more than attempting to simulate the variations of individual cloud elements. The tropical regions over the oceans show shorter lifetimes because there are basically local controls to the presence of clouds.

Campbell, G. G.↗

Fiji South Pacific Severe Storm Detection and Warning System Project (SPSSD/WS)

In August 1986, a South Pacific Severe Storm Detection and Warning System (SPSSD/WS) was installed by NASA at the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) in Nadi, Fiji. The system consists of a 6.1 meter parabolic dish antenna, a satellite ground station, and computer and image processing facilities. The system allows tracking of all South Pacific tropical cyclones with real-time, high resolution reception of visible and infrared cloud images from both the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) and the U.S. Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-WEST). Training was also provided in system usage and operations. In December 1986, the U.S. AID Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) commissioned an evaluation of the SPSSD/WS. The system was recognized as one of the most advanced of its kind in the Pacific Basin. It has functioned successfully since installation with only minor interruptions, and it has become the prime tool in supporting the FMS' role as the regional tropical cyclone warning center for the Southwest Pacific. However, it was noted that there are needed enhancements to the system.

Vermillion, C.↗

Significant Features Found in Simulated Tropical Climates Using a Cloud Resolving Model

Cloud resolving model (CRM) has widely been used in recent years for simulations involving studies of radiative-convective systems and their role in determining the tropical regional climate. The growing popularity of CRMs usage can be credited for their inclusion of crucial and realistic features such like explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit radiative-convective interaction. For example, by using a two-dimensional cloud model with radiative-convective interaction process, found a QBO-like (quasibiennial oscillation) oscillation of mean zonal wind that affected the convective system. Accordingly, the model-generated rain band corresponding to convective activity propagated in the direction of the low-level zonal mean winds; however, the precipitation became "localized" (limited within a small portion of the domain) as zonal mean winds were removed. Two other CRM simulations by S94 and Grabowski et al. (1996, hereafter G96), respectively that produced distinctive quasi-equilibrium ("climate") states on both tropical water and energy, i.e., a cold/dry state in S94 and a warm/wet state in G96, have later been investigated by T99. They found that the pattern of the imposed large-scale horizontal wind and the magnitude of the imposed surface fluxes were the two crucial mechanisms in determining the tropical climate states. The warm/wet climate was found associated with prescribed strong surface winds, or with maintained strong vertical wind shears that well-organized convective systems prevailed. On the other hand, the cold/dry climate was produced due to imposed weak surface winds and weak wind shears throughout a vertically mixing process by convection. In this study, considered as a sequel of T99, the model simulations to be presented are generally similar to those of T99 (where a detailed model setup can be found), except for a more detailed discussion along with few more simulated experiments. There are twelve major experiments chosen for presentations that are introduced in section two. Several significant feature analyses regarding the rainfall properties, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), cloud-scale eddies, the stability issue, the convective system propagation, relative humidity, and the effect on the quasi-equilibrium state by the imposed constant. radiation or constant surface fluxes, and etc. will be presented in the meeting. However, only three of the subjects are discussed in section three. A brief summary is concluded in the end section.

Shie, C.-L.↗