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At least 73 records · Page 4

Wintertime extreme warming events in the high Arctic: characteristics, drivers, trends, and the role of atmospheric rivers

Abstract. An extreme warming event near the North Pole, with 2 m temperature rising above 0 °C, was observed in late December 2015. This specific event has been attributed to cyclones and their associated moisture intrusions. However, little is known about the characteristics and drivers of similar events in the historical record. Here, using data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis, version 5 (ERA5), we study these winter extreme warming events with 2 m temperature over a grid point above 0 °C over the high Arctic (poleward of 80° N) that occurred during 1980–2021. In ERA5, such wintertime extreme warming events can only be found over the Atlantic sector. They occur rarely over many grid points, with a total absence during some winters. Furthermore, even when occurring, they tend to be short-lived, with the majority of the events lasting for less than a day. By examining their surface energy budget, we found that these events transition with increasing latitude from a regime dominated by turbulent heat flux into the one dominated by downward longwave radiation. Positive sea level pressure anomalies which resemble blocking over northern Eurasia are identified as a key ingredient in driving these events, as they can effectively deflect the eastward propagating cyclones poleward, leading to intense moisture and heat intrusions into the high Arctic. Using an atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm, the roles of ARs in contributing to the occurrence of these extreme warming events defined at the grid-point scale are explicitly quantified. The importance of ARs in inducing these events increases with latitude. Poleward of about 83° N, 100 % of these events occurred under AR conditions, corroborating that ARs were essential in contributing to the occurrence of these events. Over the past 4 decades, both the frequency, duration, and magnitude of these events have been increasing significantly. As the Arctic continues to warm, these events are likely to increase in both frequency, duration, and magnitude, with great implications for the local sea ice, hydrological cycle, and ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

High Field Side Launch of RF Waves: A New Approach to Reactor Actuators

Launching radio frequency (RF) waves from the high field side (HFS) of a tokamak offers significant advantages over low field side (LFS) launch with respect to both wave physics and plasma material interactions (PMI). For lower hybrid (LH) waves, the higher magnetic field opens the window between wave accessibility and the condition for strong electron Landau damping, allowing LH waves from the HFS to penetrate into the core of a burning plasma, while waves launched from the LFS are restricted to the periphery of the plasma. The lower of waves absorbed at higher yields a higher current drive efficiency as well. In the ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF), HFS launch allows for direct access to the mode conversion layer where mode converted waves absorb strongly on thermal electrons and ions, thus avoiding the generation of energetic minority ion tails. The absence of turbulent heat and particle fluxes on the HFS, particularly in double null configuration, makes it the ideal location to minimize PMI damage to the antenna structure. The quiescent SOL also eliminates the need to couple LH waves across a long distance to the separatrix, as the antenna can be located close to plasma without risking damage to the structure. Improved impurity screening on the HFS will help eliminate the long-standing issues of high Z impurity accumulation with ICRF.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

High Field Side Launch of Lower Hybrid Waves: A Scoping Study for ADX

Launching lower hybrid (LH) waves from the high field side (HFS) of a tokamak offers significant advantages over low field side (LFS) launch with respect to both wave physics and plasma material interactions (PMI). The higher magnetic field opens the window between wave accessibility and the condition for strong electron Landau damping, allowing LH waves from the HFS to penetrate into the core of a burning plasma, while waves launched from the LFS are restricted to the periphery of the plasma. The lower parallel refractive index (n) of waves launched from the HFS yields a higher current drive efficiency as well. The absence of turbulent heat and particle fluxes on the HFS, particularly in double null configuration, makes it the ideal location to minimize PMI damage to the antenna structure. The quiescent SOL also eliminates the need to couple LH waves across a long distance to the separatrix, as the antenna can be located close to plasma without risking damage to the structure.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

ECAR-6330 Rev 0 Computational Fluid Dynamics Evaluation of Core Pressure Drop for the Primary Coolant Apparatus Test

PCAT is a thermal-hydraulic test loop for MARVEL reactor. The design gap thickness between the heater rods of PCAT core is 1.0 mm. The heater elements were manufactured within a straightness tolerance for the designed gap thickness, but several elements have been distorted out of tolerance during the welding process. The distortion of heater rods could lead to flow maldistribution and excessive hotspot temperature when the gap between two heater rods is too narrow. Wire-wraps are the spacer devices widely used in the sodium cooled fast reactor system to maintain the design fuel pitch. Generally, a wire spacer can enhance the turbulent heat transfer, but it increases the pressure drop, which is not desirable for a natural-circulation system like PCAT. Therefore, three short wire-wrap spacers per heater have been proposed to contain the core pressure drops and keep the heater-to-heater gap in an acceptable range. The objectives of this ECAR is to evaluate the PCAR core pressure drop with short wire spacers to confirm that the additional pressure drop due to the wire spacer will not disturb the natural circulation of the PCAT.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

ECAR-7932 Rev 0 Large Eddy Simulation of MARVEL Reactor Core Subchannel to Evaluate Model Uncertainty of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Equation Based Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis

In the previous work (ECAR-7210), the peak cladding temperature of the MARVEL microreactor has been evaluated by steady-state Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Although numerical uncertainties of RANS-based CFD simulations has been assessed in ECAR-7210, the model uncertainty of RANS turbulence models must be investigated to resolve the issues related to inaccurate prediction of turbulent heat flux and flow pulsation in a tight lattice rod bundle using the steady-state RANS simulations. Consequently, this ECAR conducted a high-fidelity CFD analysis utilizing Large Eddy Simulation (LES) to generate reference data and investigated the model uncertainty of RANS-based CFD simulations.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

The role of ion and electron-scale turbulence in setting heat and particle transport in the DIII-D ITER baseline scenario

In this work, the heat and particle transport in a DIII-D ITER Baseline Scenario (IBS) discharge has been investigated using both linear and nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations performed with the CGYRO code [J. Candy et al: Journal Comp. Phys. (2016)].These simulations were used to investigate the role that ion-scale ($k_θp_s$ < 1:0) and electron-scale ($k_θp_s$ > 1:0) turbulence play in determining heat and particle transport in the core of conditions believed to directly extrapolate to ITER operation. This investigation spans over nearly half of the plasma minor radius, from ρ = 0:45 - 0:85. To probe the nature of the transport and turbulence in these conditions and to validate the model against experimental fluxes, scans of $a/L_{T_i}$, $a/L_{T_e}$, and $a/L_n$ were performed at all radial locations. Long wavelength turbulence is found to be dominated by ITG modes with strong non-adiabatic electron effects and appears unable to reproduce ion and electron heat fluxes and electron particle fluxes simultaneously at most radial positions when single parameter scans are performed. To investigate the potential role of short wavelength turbulence, a series of electron-scale simulations are performed that indicate that experimentally relevant levels of electron heat flux could arise at sub-ion scales. Quantitative comparison of the simulated fluxes obtained from ion and electron-scale simulations with experimental levels along with the sensitivity of simulations results to changes in inputs is presented. Through extensive sensitivity scans and comparison with multiple transport channels, this work demonstrates a clear need for self-consistent modification of multiple inputs and suggests multi-scale interactions play a significant role at many of the radial locations studied. The results of this analysis help shape our understanding of the model fidelity needed to predict turbulence and transport reactor-relevant conditions and have important implications for the prediction of future fusion devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantitative assessment of eddy viscosity rans models for turbulent mixed convection in a differentially heated plane channel

Turbulent mixed convection between two vertical, infinite parallel plates at different temperatures is studied using various two-equation turbulence models. The numerical simulations are performed at a turbulent Reynolds number of Re τ = 150 and a Grashof number of Gr = 9.6 × 10 5 . Comparisons are made against the highly trusted DNS results. Consistent with the DNS approach, the current simulations are performed using constant properties and the Boussinesq approximation to predict the influence of buoyancy. Previous studies have provided assessments of two-equation turbulence models for various scenarios, but often rely on a qualitative “eye” test in order to determine the most appropriate model to predict a given flow. This study aims to provide a new form of quantitative assessment that accounts for both the physics captured by the turbulence model as well as the magnitude of the system response quantities (SRQ) using a modified symmetric mean absolute percent error (SMAPE) method. This method is designed to be approachable to researchers at any level and can be applied to system response quantities from multiple research fields. Uncertainty quantification is also performed to determine the discretization error for each turbulence model. Recommendations are made as to which turbulence models best capture the physics – hydrodynamically and thermally – using both local and global validation metrics. Lastly, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the damping functions used in the most accurate models. This underpins the potential of model developments and adjustments most worth pursuing for buoyant flows. Finally, this framework provides a more physics-based comparative analysis of the selected turbulence models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Characterization of SOL profiles and turbulence in ICRF-heated plasmas in EAST

Scrape-off layer (SOL) profiles and turbulence in ion cyclotron range of frequency (ICRF)-heated plasmas are investigated by the reciprocating probe diagnostic system (FRPs) and gas puff imaging (GPI) diagnostic in EAST. A radio-frequency (RF) sheath potential reaching up to 100 V is identified proximate to the ICRF antennas. Notably, the amplitude of this RF sheath potential escalates in response to rising ICRF power and inversely with plasma density. When a RF sheath is present in the far SOL, a pronounced density ‘shoulder’ forms in front of the ICRF antennas, while the ‘shoulder’ fade away as the antenna and associated RF sheath shift outwards. A strong E r shear is revealed by measurements from both FRPs and GPI. Analysis of the poloidal wave number-frequency spectrum reveals suppression of high-frequency turbulence in the far SOL due to the RF sheath. This effect is manifested in the reduced autocorrelation time τ c and reduced average blob size δ blob of the SOL plasma. Intriguingly, the poloidal propagation direction of the low-frequency turbulence reverses from the electron to the ion diamagnetic drift direction at the RF sheath location. A surge of tungsten impurity is potentially attributed to the heightened interaction between the SOL plasmas and the wall material. Shifting the ICRF antennas outward, to alleviate heat spots, results in the relocation of the RF sheath to the shaded region of the main limiter. This shift amplifies the radial velocity of blobs in the far SOL and concurrently diminishes the SOL density when compared to conditions without ICRF injection. The properties of ion saturation current fluctuations are consistent with the stochastic model predictions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Ion versus Electron Heating in Compressively Driven Astrophysical Gyrokinetic Turbulence

The partition of irreversible heating between ions and electrons in compressively driven (but subsonic) collisionless turbulence is investigated by means of nonlinear hybrid gyrokinetic simulations. We derive a prescription for the ion-to-electron heating ratio Q i /Q e as a function of the compressive-to-Alfvénic driving power ratio P compr /P AW , of the ratio of ion thermal pressure to magnetic pressure β i , and of the ratio of ion-to-electron background temperatures T i /T e . It is shown that Q i /Q e is an increasing function of P compr /P AW . When the compressive driving is sufficiently large, Q i /Q e approaches ≃P compr /P AW . This indicates that, in turbulence with large compressive fluctuations, the partition of heating is decided at the injection scales, rather than at kinetic scales. Analysis of phase-space spectra shows that the energy transfer from inertial-range compressive fluctuations to sub-Larmor-scale kinetic Alfvén waves is absent for both low and high β i , meaning that the compressive driving is directly connected to the ion-entropy fluctuations, which are converted into ion thermal energy. This result suggests that preferential electron heating is a very special case requiring low βi and no, or weak, compressive driving. Our heating prescription has wide-ranging applications, including to the solar wind and to hot accretion disks such as M87 and Sgr A*.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Finite Element Method for Compressible and Turbulent Multiphase Flow Instabilities with Heat Transfer

We present a new finite element framework for modeling compressible, turbulent multiphase flows with heat transfer. For two-fluid systems with a free surface, the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method is implemented without the need for interface reconstruction, while turbulence is resolved using a dynamic Vreman large eddy simulation (LES) model. Unlike most two-phase VOF studies, which neglect heat transfer, the present approach incorporates energy transport equations within the VOF formulation to account for heat exchange, an effect particularly important in turbulent flows. Conjugate heat transfer is often challenging in finite volume methods, which require explicit specification of heat fluxes at the solid–fluid interface, limiting accuracy and predictive capability. By contrast, the finite element formulation does not require heat flux inputs, allowing more accurate and robust simulation of heat transfer between solids and fluids. The method is demonstrated through three representative cases. First, a two-fluid instability with a single-mode perturbation is simulated and validated against analytical growth rates. Second, conjugate heat transfer is examined in a high-temperature flow over a cold metal cylinder, with validation performed both quantitatively—via pressure coefficient comparisons with experimental data—and qualitatively using vector field topology. Finally, compressible spray injection and breakup are modeled, demonstrating the ability of the framework to capture interfacial dynamics and atomization under turbulent, high-speed conditions. In the compressible spray injection and breakup case, the results indicate that the finite element formulation achieved higher predictive accuracy and robustness than the finite-volume method. With the same mesh resolution, the FEM reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) from 6.96 mm and 26.0% (for the FVM) to 4.85 mm and 12.7%, respectively, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness in capturing interfacial dynamics and heat transfer. The study also introduced vector field topology to visualize and interpret coherent flow structures and instabilities, offering insights beyond conventional scalar-field analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Temperature statistics in a radiatively heated particle-laden turbulent square duct flow

Radiation absorption by preferentially concentrated particles in a turbulent square duct flow is studied experimentally. The particle-laden flow is exposed to near-infrared radiation, and the gas phase temperature statistics are measured along the wall bisector of the duct. It is found that the instantaneous temperature fluctuations are comparable to the overall mean temperature rise. The temperature statistics at the duct centerline and near the wall are qualitatively different. The former reflects preferential concentration in isotropic flows while the latter displays evidence of particle clustering into streamwise elongated streaks. Comparison of the experimental data to a simplified heat transfer model suggests that the Lagrangian evolution of particle clusters and voids, and turbulent mixing in the vicinity of particle clusters, are important. This work was motivated by particle solar receiver technology, but the findings are also relevant to systems where there is localized heat release or mass transfer from disperse particles or droplets. It shows that obtaining Lagrangian histories of particle trajectories is an important next step towards understanding thermal transport phenomena in particle-laden turbulent flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Gyrokinetic simulations of the effects of magnetic islands on microturbulence in KSTAR

Gyrokinetic simulations are utilized to study effects of magnetic islands (MIs) on the ion temperature gradient (ITG) turbulence in the KSTAR tokamak with resonant magnetic perturbations. Simulations show that the transport is controlled by the nonlinear interactions between the ITG turbulence and self-generated vortex flows and zonal flows, leading to an anisotropic structure of fluctuation and transport on the poloidal plane and in the toroidal direction. MIs greatly enhance turbulent transport of both particle and heat. The turbulent transport exhibits variations in the toroidal direction, with transport through the resonant layer near the island X-point being enhanced when the X-point is located at the outer mid-plane. A quantitative agreement is shown between simulations and KSTAR experiments in terms of time frequency and perpendicular wavevector spectrum.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Separating the Influences of Low-Latitude Warming and Sea Ice Loss on Northern Hemisphere Climate Change

Abstract Analyzing a multimodel ensemble of coupled climate model simulations forced with Arctic sea ice loss using a two-parameter pattern-scaling technique to remove the cross-coupling between low- and high-latitude responses, the sensitivity to high-latitude sea ice loss is isolated and contrasted to the sensitivity to low-latitude warming. Despite some differences in experimental design, the Northern Hemisphere near-surface atmospheric sensitivity to sea ice loss is found to be robust across models in the cold season; however, a larger intermodel spread is found at the surface in boreal summer, and in the free tropospheric circulation. In contrast, the sensitivity to low-latitude warming is most robust in the free troposphere and in the warm season, with more intermodel spread in the surface ocean and surface heat flux over the Northern Hemisphere. The robust signals associated with sea ice loss include upward turbulent and longwave heat fluxes where sea ice is lost, warming and freshening of the Arctic Ocean, warming of the eastern North Pacific Ocean relative to the western North Pacific with upward turbulent heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, and salinification of the shallow shelf seas of the Arctic Ocean alongside freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the robust signals associated with low-latitude warming include intensified ocean warming and upward latent heat fluxes near the western boundary currents, freshening of the Pacific Ocean, salinification of the North Atlantic, and downward sensible and longwave fluxes over the ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Phase-space entropy cascade and irreversibility of stochastic heating in nearly collisionless plasma turbulence

We consider a nearly collisionless plasma consisting of a species of “test particles” in one spatial and one velocity dimension, stirred by an externally imposed stochastic electric field—a kinetic analog of the Kraichnan model of passive advection. The mean effect on the particle distribution function is turbulent diffusion in velocity space—known as stochastic heating. Accompanying this heating is the generation of fine-scale structure in the distribution function, which we characterize with the collisionless (Casimir) invariant C 2 ∝ ∫ ∫ d x d v 〈 f 2 〉 —a quantity that here plays the role of (negative) entropy of the distribution function. We find that C 2 is transferred from large scales to small scales in both position and velocity space via a phase-space cascade enabled by both particle streaming and nonlinear interactions between particles and the stochastic electric field. We compute the steady-state fluxes and spectrum of C 2 in Fourier space, with k and s denoting spatial and velocity wave numbers, respectively. In our model, the nonlinearity in the evolution equation for the spectrum turns into a fractional Laplacian operator in k space, leading to anomalous diffusion. Whereas even the linear phase mixing alone would lead to a constant flux of C 2 to high s (towards the collisional dissipation range) at every k , the nonlinearity accelerates this cascade by intertwining velocity and position space so that the flux of C 2 is to both high k and high s simultaneously. Integrating over velocity (spatial) wave numbers, the k -space ( s -space) flux of C 2 is constant down to a dissipation length (velocity) scale that tends to zero as the collision frequency does, even though the rate of collisional dissipation remains finite. The resulting spectrum in the inertial range is a self-similar function in the ( k , s ) plane, with power-law asymptotics at large k and s . Our model is fully analytically solvable, but the asymptotic scalings of the spectrum can also be found via a simple phenomenological theory whose key assumption is that the cascade is governed by a “critical balance” in phase space between the linear and nonlinear timescales. We argue that stochastic heating is made irreversible by this entropy cascade and that, while collisional dissipation accessed via phase mixing occurs only at small spatial scales rather than at every scale as it would in a linear system, the cascade makes phase mixing even more effective overall in the nonlinear regime than in the linear one. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quasilinear modeling of heat flux from microtearing turbulence

Microtearing (MT) turbulence affects plasma confinement and profile evolution in many different magnetic-confinement scenarios, ranging from tokamak core plasmas to the H-mode pedestal and from spherical tokamaks to reversed-field pinches. Thus, an urgent need exists to design and test reduced models of MT turbulence and transport. Here, a heuristic quasilinear model is composed and verified by comparing its predictions against nonlinear MT simulations. It is found to yield good predictions of magnetic flutter transport as key parameters are varied: the collision frequency, the electron temperature gradient, and the normalized plasma pressure.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Ion thermal transport in the H-mode edge transport barrier on DIII-D

The power balance ion heat flux in the pedestal region on DIII-D increases and becomes increasingly anomalous (above conventional neoclassical) in experiments with higher temperature and lower density pedestals where the ion collisionality ($v^*_i$) is lowered toward values expected on ITER. Direct measurements of the main-ion temperature are shown to be essential on DIII-D when calculating the ion heat flux due to differences between the temperature of $D^+$ and the more commonly measured $C^{6+}$ impurity ions approaching the separatrix. Neoclassical transport calculations from NEO and non-linear gyrokinetic calculations using CGYRO are consistent with these observations and show that while neoclassical transport plays an important role, the turbulent ion heat flux due to ion scale electrostatic turbulence is significant and can contribute similar or larger ion heat fluxes at lower collisionality. Beam emission spectroscopy and Doppler backscattering measurements in the steep gradient region of the H-mode pedestal reveal increased broadband, long-wavelength ion scale fluctuations for the low $v^*_i$ discharges at the radius where the non-linear CGYRO simulations were run. Taken together, increased fluctuations, power balance calculations, and gyrokinetic simulations show that the above neoclassical ion heat fluxes, including the increases at lower $v^*_i$, are likely due to weakly suppressed ion scale electrostatic turbulence. These new results are based on world first inferred ion and electron heat fluxes in the pedestal region of deuterium plasmas using direct measurements of the deuterium temperature for power balance across ion collisionalities covering an order of magnitude from high $v^*_i$ values of 1.3 down to ITER relevant $v^*_i$ ~0.1.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗