Results for “U.S.” — Page 4

NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of Stratospheric Intrusions and Biomass Burning Plumes on the Vertical Distribution of Tropospheric Ozone Over the Midwestern U.S.

Naturally occurring ozone rich Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport (STT) intrusions and biomass burning plumes reaching the surface can contribute to exceedances of the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ground-level ozone (70 ppbv implemented in 2015). In addition, fires can inject significant pollution into the free troposphere where it can be transported long distances. The combined air quality impacts from these sources on ozone has only been analyzed in a few case studies for the Midwest U.S. Here we study ozone impacts in a major Midwestern city, for the first time in St. Louis, Missouri, using a series of ozonesonde profiles taken during the SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys) field campaign in August-September 2013. All ozonesondes showed some enhancements above the background profile levels (~55 ppbv) throughout each tropospheric column. Two models were used to estimate and quantify ozone origins within the columns. A chemical transport model identified enhancements from STT equivalent to 10to15 ppbv over the background with a 10 to15% contribution overall to the column. Two FLEXPART-WRF simulations, one with smoke in the boundary layer and the other with smoke above, identified enhancements from biomass burning equivalent to 10to 80 ppbv. Overall, the total biomass burning contribution is 15to 30% of the total column. Five ozonesondes showed signatures of mixed biomass burning plumes and STT intrusions. During this study period, biomass burning in the western U.S. contributed 70% to ozone enhancements in the total column compared to 3% from the central U.S and 27% from other areas.

National Ambient Air Quality Standards for ground‐↗

NASA NTRS2023

Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition Program On-ramp #2 Airbus U.S. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Evaluation Report

In 2017, NASA’s Earth Science Division (ESD) launched the Private-Sector Small Constellation Satellite Data Product Pilot, now referred to as the Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) program. The objective of CSDA is to identify, evaluate, and acquire commercial remote sensing data that support NASA’s Earth science research and application activities. The Pilot successfully concluded in early 2020, when CSDA transitioned into a sustained program with on-ramping opportunities for new vendors as the industry emerges with new candidates and capabilities. In October 2019, a Request for Information (RFI) seeking capability statements from parties interested in providing data from spaceborne platforms was released for the CSDA on-ramp #2 evaluations. To be responsive to the RFI, the commercial satellite constellations had to consist of three or more operating spacecraft actively collecting data in a non-geostationary orbit with full latitudinal coverage and be U.S. companies. Two vendors responded to the RFI and were evaluated by a committee composed of NASA ESD leadership, program managers, and scientists. Both vendors satisfied the RFI requirements and were asked to respond to a Request for Proposal (RFP). After review of the proposals, NASA entered into a Blanket Purchase Agreement (BPA) with Airbus Defense and Space GEO, Inc. (Airbus) U.S. in September 2021 and with BlackSky Geospatial Solutions, Inc. (BlackSky) in November 2021. In this report, CSDA provides an evaluation of the usefulness of data provided by the Airbus U.S. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite constellation, consisting of TerraSAR-X (launched in 2007), TanDEM-X (launched in 2010), and PAZ (launched in 2018), for advancing NASA’s Earth system science research and applications. The evaluation of the BlackSky commercial data will be provided in a separate report. To conduct the Airbus evaluation, NASA’s ESD augmented 13 existing research projects that could potentially benefit from, and had the expertise to evaluate, the commercial data being considered for longer-term purchase. Investigators from NASA’s Research and Analysis Program science focus areas and from NASA’s Applied Sciences Program elements participated in the evaluation. A summary of the research areas evaluated by the Principal Investigator (PI) teams is presented in Figure 3. CSDA also funded a dedicated activity to evaluate the satellite data quality (calibration and geolocation) independently by assessing the accuracy of data from Airbus. Evaluation activities were carried out by the selected PIs from December 7, 2022, to December 7, 2023. Delivery of datasets requested by the researchers began in January 2023. The vendors were evaluated on the accessibility of data, accuracy and completeness of metadata, and promptness and quality of user support services. Datasets purchased during the evaluation have been archived by NASA and will be made available to current and future government-funded researchers in accordance with the End User License Agreement (EULA). This synthesis report distills and integrates the findings of research reports commissioned by NASA for the Airbus evaluation. This report also includes recommendations that inform the way ahead for the program. The scientific results from the evaluations demonstrated that the commercial data from Airbus were able to advance NASA research and applications. However, the PIs encountered limitations that diminished the usefulness of the data due to the amount of effort that was required to access, preprocess, and analyze these data. One significant issue encountered was the limited spatial and temporal coverage of the data in the Airbus archive that could be used to conduct time series analyses or assessments over large spatial scales. Overall, however, the utility and the quality of the evaluated data outweighed the difficulties encountered, and NASA has concluded that the Airbus SAR data would complement NASA’s existing Earth observation capabilities and Airbus U.S. would qualify to participate in the sustained phase of the program.

Batuhan Osmanoglu↗

NASA NTRS2024

Comparison of Anthropomorphic Test Device and Human Volunteer Responses in Simulated Landing Impact Tests of U.S. Space Vehicles

United States (U.S.) crewed vehicles are being designed to support the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) human spaceflight programs. Vehicles must be designed to meet NASA’s occupant protection requirements including landing injury assessment with anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) and analytical models. However, these tools are limited in capturing all injuries that might occur during spacecraft landings. A NASA study of injuries during Soyuz vehicle landings has shown that analytical models are underpredicting occupant injury. Because of the inherent limitations with our analytical tools, human volunteer impact testing was employed to assess flight-like landing conditions of U.S. crewed vehicles. A total of 84 human volunteer tests in 11 different test orientations and g-levels were completed as part of this effort in collaboration with the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and U.S. vehicle development companies. Human subjects were tested at various realistic landing loads and in the highest fidelity seat and suit components that were available at the time of testing for two U.S. vehicles. Matched-pair ATD tests in the same test conditions were also conducted with small female and midsized male Hybrid III ATDs. ATDs were fully instrumented. Head accelerations and subjective responses were recorded for human subjects. In some cases, chest accelerations were captured. Responses of the ATDs and humans in matched-pair tests were compared. No ATD tests showed evidence for risk of injury based on NASA occupant protection requirements. Human subjects reported 17 cases of discomfort or pain, and 1 human subject was diagnosed with a minor injury that was not evident in the ATD tests. These results provide evidence that ATDs do not capture all potential injury risks, namely lower severity injuries, discomfort, pain, and fit issues. Overall, human testing is beneficial to understanding the true risk of injury to crewmembers during Earth landings.

Teresa M Reiber↗

NASA NTRS2024

Comparison of Anthropomorphic Test Device and Human Volunteer Responses in Simulated Landing Impact Tests of U.S. Space Vehicles

United States (U.S.) crewed vehicles are being designed to support the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) human spaceflight programs. Vehicles must be designed to meet NASA’s occupant protection requirements including landing injury assessment with anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) and analytical models. However, these tools are limited in capturing all injuries that might occur during spacecraft landings. A NASA study of injuries during Soyuz vehicle landings has shown that analytical models are underpredicting occupant injury. Because of the inherent limitations with our analytical tools, human volunteer impact testing was employed to assess flight-like landing conditions of U.S. crewed vehicles. A total of 84 human volunteer tests in 11 different test orientations and g-levels were completed as part of this effort in collaboration with the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and U.S. vehicle development companies. Human subjects were tested at various realistic landing loads and in the highest fidelity seat and suit components that were available at the time of testing for two U.S. vehicles. Matched-pair ATD tests in the same test conditions were also conducted with small female and midsized male Hybrid III ATDs. ATDs were fully instrumented. Head accelerations and subjective responses were recorded for human subjects. In some cases, chest accelerations were captured. Responses of the ATDs and humans in matched-pair tests were compared. No ATD tests showed evidence for risk of injury based on NASA occupant protection requirements. Human subjects reported 17 cases of discomfort or pain, and 1 human subject was diagnosed with a minor injury that was not evident in the ATD tests. These results provide evidence that ATDs do not capture all potential injury risks, namely lower severity injuries, discomfort, pain, and fit issues. Overall, human testing is beneficial to understanding the true risk of injury to crewmembers during Earth landings.

Teresa M Reiber↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Anthropomorphic Test Device and Human Volunteer Responses in Simulated Landing Impact Tests of U.S. Space Vehicles

United States (U.S.) crewed vehicles are being designed to support the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) human spaceflight programs. Vehicles must be designed to meet NASA’s occupant protection requirements including landing injury assessment with anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) and analytical models. However, these tools are limited in capturing all injuries that might occur during spacecraft landings. A NASA study of injuries during Soyuz vehicle landings has shown that analytical models are underpredicting occupant injury. Because of the inherent limitations with our analytical tools, human volunteer impact testing was employed to assess flight-like landing conditions of U.S. crewed vehicles. A total of 84 human volunteer tests in 11 different test orientations and g-levels were completed as part of this effort in collaboration with the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and U.S. vehicle development companies. Human subjects were tested at various realistic landing loads and in the highest fidelity seat and suit components that were available at the time of testing for two U.S. vehicles. Matched-pair ATD tests in the same test conditions were also conducted with small female and midsized male Hybrid III ATDs. ATDs were fully instrumented. Head accelerations and subjective responses were recorded for human subjects. In some cases, chest accelerations were captured. Responses of the ATDs and humans in matched-pair tests were compared. No ATD tests showed evidence for risk of injury based on NASA occupant protection requirements. Human subjects reported 17 cases of discomfort or pain, and 1 human subject was diagnosed with a minor injury that was not evident in the ATD tests. These results provide evidence that ATDs do not capture all potential injury risks, namely lower severity injuries, discomfort, pain, and fit issues. Overall, human testing is beneficial to understanding the true risk of injury to crewmembers during Earth landings.

Teresa M Reiber↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tracking cropland transitions: A comparative analysis of U.S. land cover change data

There are a growing number of land cover data available for the conterminous United States, supporting various applications ranging from biofuel regulatory decisions to habitat conservation assessments. These datasets vary in their source information, frequency of data collection and reporting, land class definitions, categorical detail, and spatial scale and time intervals of representation. These differences limit direct comparison, contribute to disagreements among studies, confuse stakeholders, and hamper our ability to confidently report key land cover trends in the U.S. Here we assess changes in cropland derived from the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) dataset from the U.S. Geological Survey and compare them with analyses of three established land cover datasets across the coterminous U.S. from 2008-2017: (1) the National Resources Inventory (NRI), (2) a dataset Lark et al. 2020 derived from the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and (3) a dataset from Potapov et al. 2022. LCMAP reports more stable cropland and less stable noncropland in all comparisons, likely due to its more expansive definition of cropland which includes managed grasslands (pasture and hay). Despite these differences, net cropland expansion from all four datasets was comparable (5.18-6.33 million acres), although the geographic extent and type of conversion differed. LCMAP projected the largest cropland expansion in the southern Great Plains, whereas other datasets projected the largest expansion in the northwestern and central Midwest. Most of the pixel-level disagreements (86%) between LCMAP and Lark et al. 2020 were due to definitional differences among datasets, whereas the remainder (14%) were from a variety of causes. Cropland expansion in the LCMAP likely reflects conversions of more natural areas, whereas cropland expansion in other data sources also captures conversion of managed pasture to cropland. The particular research question considered (e.g., habitat versus soil carbon) should influence which data source is more appropriate.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.

SST Forcing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predictive Assessment of the Chemical Composition of Coal Ash in Reserve at U.S. Disposal Sites

In the United States, more than 2 Gt of coal combustion residuals (i.e., coal ash) are stored in hundreds of disposal units. Recent federal regulations mandate the closure or retrofitting of most coal ash impoundments, presenting significant challenges for waste management. These regulatory pressures also present opportunities to reuse coal ash. However, the quality and quantity of discarded coal ash across the U.S. are not well known, even though this information is crucial for spurring its reuse for conventional and new material applications. This study describes a predictive model for the major element composition of coal ash in reserve at disposal sites of major U.S. coal-fired power plants. This model was constructed from coal purchase records of 705 power stations from 1973 to 2022 and was trained on coal ash composition data, showing that coal ash elemental composition is strongly associated with the source of feedstock coal. The model showed regional shifts in the major element contents of ash produced by power plants in the last 50 years, particularly for calcium and iron (expressed as %CaO and %Fe2O3), as power stations changed their source of coal over this time frame. Our approach enables an estimation of chemical composition for ash stored in waste impoundments at individual power stations. Such information can help to delineate the regional market resource potential of supplementary cements for concrete and other material innovations that would utilize coal ash harvested from disposal sites across the U.S.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Realistic Potential of Soil Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Croplands for Climate Mitigation

Existing estimates of the climate mitigation potential from cropland carbon sequestration (C-sequestration) are limited because they tend to assume constant rates of soil organic carbon change over all available cropland area, use relatively coarse land delineations, and often fail to adequately consider the agronomic and socioeconomic dimensions of agricultural land use. This results in an inflated estimate of the C-sequestration potential. We address this gap by defining a more appropriate land base for cover cropping in the United States for C-sequestration purposes: stable croplands in annual production systems that can integrate cover cropping without irrigation. Our baseline estimate of this suitable stable cropland area is 32% of current U.S. cropland extent. Even an alternative, less restrictive definition of stability results in a large reduction in area (44% of current U.S. croplands). Focusing cover crop implementation to this constrained land base would increase durability of associated C-sequestration and limit soil carbon loss from land conversion to qualify for carbon-specific incentives. Applying spatially-variable C-sequestration rates from the literature to our baseline area yields a technical potential of 19.4 Tg CO 2 e yr –1 annually, about one-fifth of previous estimates. We also find the cost of realizing about half (10 Tg CO 2 e yr –1 ) of this potential could exceed 100 USD Mg CO 2 e –1 , an order of magnitude higher than previously thought. While our economic analyses suggest that financial incentives are necessary for large-scale adoption of cover cropping in the U.S., they also imply any C-sequestration realized under such incentives is likely to be additional.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Differences in Lightning—Storm Microphysical Relationships in Subtropical South America Versus the Continental U.S. and Their Impact on Model Lightning Parameterizations

Satellite studies have shown that some of the deepest convection with high lightning flash rates occurs downstream of the Andes in subtropical South America (SSA). Using high resolution ground‐based observations in SSA, we explore the relationship between lightning and radar‐inferred storm microphysics. Results show these storms have significantly larger 35‐dBZ volumes and more graupel per lightning flash compared to storms in the U.S. We then test microphysics‐based lightning parameterizations for storms in SSA on a 1‐km convection‐permitting simulation of a mesoscale convective system. Results from the simulation match well with observed flash rates. If parameterizations based on U.S. storms had been applied, flash rates would have been overestimated by a factor of eight. These results suggest that storms in SSA are fundamentally different compared to storms in the U.S., and caution should be exercised when applying microphysics‐based lightning parameterizations in different regions of the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating energy consumption and GHG emissions in the U.S. food supply chain for net-zero

This work provides a database of the U.S. food system’s energy consumption and GHG emissions at the national and state levels by food supply chain (FSC) stage, fuel type, and food commodity. We estimate that the U.S. FSC consumed a total 4660 TBTU (4900 PJ) of site energy, 7130 TBTU (7500 PJ) of primary energy, and generated 970 MMT of GHG emissions in 2016. Among all the stages, on-farm production is the largest energy consumer (31% primary energy) and GHG emissions contributor (70%), largely due to raising animals. Optimizing distribution can reduce the stage’s energy consumption and GHG emissions and increase products’ shelf-life. Reducing food loss and waste is another good option, as it decreases the amount of food necessary to grow, thus impacting the overall FSC. The database can help stakeholders identify stage- and region-specific strategies and measures to curtail the environmental footprint of the U.S. food system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Minimum GHG emissions and energy consumption of U.S. PET and polyolefin packaging supply chains in a circular economy

There is a wide agreement on the urgency of transforming linear management of plastics towards a circular economy model. However, no clear pathways exist as to required recycling technologies involved and system-wide environmental impacts. This study explores such pathways in the U.S. for the most commonly used packaging plastics through a combination of mechanical and emerging advanced recycling technologies. A system optimization model aimed at minimizing environmental impacts was developed to determine optimal end-of-life (EOL) management and locations of existing and emerging U.S. recycling infrastructures. Our study includes material flows from virgin resin production through semi-manufacturing processes to existing EOL disposal and recycling processes. An optimized circular plastics packaging system achieved greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings of up to 28% and cumulative energy demand (CED) savings of up to 46%, compared to the linear economy. Moreover, these savings of GHG emissions and CED impacts represent a reduction of 0.16% and 0.49% compared to annual U.S. GHG emissions and energy consumption in 2022, respectively. The optimal recycling rates and systems-level circularity ranged from 78–99% and 57–75%, respectively. Increased energy savings led to increased GHG emissions showing a potential trade-off between GHG emissions and energy. Analysis of 40 scenarios showed the importance of material collection distances, blend limit of mechanically recycled resins, process yields, and mandated recycling rates for achieving a sustainable circular economy of plastics.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data Fusion for the Development of a Multimodal Freight Transload Facilities Dataset in the U.S.

To withstand the growing demand of commodity volume and its strain on the transportation infrastructure, it is necessary to identify the flow of commodities by route and mode. However, a national multimodal freight routing model does not exist for the U.S. The development of such model requires multiple building blocks, such as virtual representations of roadway, railway, and waterway networks, transload facilities (TFs), and access/egress links. Most of these blocks have a robust database in the U.S., except for the TFs. Here, this paper presents the fusion of dispersed and heterogeneous representations of multimodal TFs into a single, comprehensive, geospatial freight TF dataset. The TF dataset is derived from several sources, including the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Master Docks Plus, the National Transportation Atlas Database, the Intermodal Association of North America, industry publications, and other public information. First, individual datasets were queried and reconciled. A geocoding/reverse geocoding process was applied to get the best street address and latitude/longitude location for each terminal. Then, duplicate terminals were identified by a fuzzy match algorithm based on terminal name and location, and removed. Validation was performed by visual inspection of random facilities. The main contributions of this work are: a publicly available version of the TF dataset, including facility location and multimodal transfer capability of 9,003 facilities, and an enterprise-version with the same facilities but including commodity handling capabilities. The main purpose of developing the TF dataset is to inform multimodal routing algorithms. The proposed TF dataset allows for credibly modeling the multimodal transfer of commodities within shipment routes.

Commodity Routing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prospective Seal Unit Spatial Extent Database for U.S. Sedimentary Basins

The Prospective Seal Unit Spatial Extent Database for U.S. Sedimentary Basins contains a series of spatial datasets representing spatial extents of publicly available data for caprock and seal rock units within the Appalachian Basin, Denver-Julesburg Basin, Great Valley Basin (Sacramento and San Joaquin Basins), Illinois Basin, Michigan Basin, San Juan Basin, U.S. Gulf Coast Basin, and Williston Basin. The database is designed to support carbon storage feasibility and resources assessment for carbon transport and storage (CTS) projects while displaying the spatial extent of prospective seal units and provide a guide to the original data source. This database leverages publicly available data resources from authoritative sources (e.g. U.S. Geological Survey, State Geologic Surveys, and published reports), and aims to help guide users to understand the seal unit's spatial coverage and data gaps from the regional to sub-basin/field scale. The database is organized by seal unit/formation, including the spatial extent for data found to be available for the seal unit. The various datasets represented include spatial extents of the lithologic formation, depth to top structural contour maps, and thickness/isopach maps. Included in this submission are the following resources: 1. Geodatabase/Dataset: “prospective-seal-unit-extents-2025.gdb” 2. ReadMe: “readme-prospective-seal-unit-spatial-extent-dataset-2025.pdf” 3. Data Catalog: “prospective-seal-unit-spatial-extents-data-catalog-2025.xlsx” 4. Data Sources Key: “data-source.csv” Please see NETL disclaimers here: https://netl.doe.gov/home/disclaimer

Basin↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Delicate Balance Redux: The Role of Nuclear Forces, Damage Limitation and Uncertainty in Future U.S.-China Crises

What is the impact of damage limitation capabilities like counterforce and missile defenses on deterrence, when their efficacy in stopping an adversary nuclear attack is uncertain? This is a key unanswered question to understand “how much is enough” for the United States to deter China and Russia in future nuclear crises. In this paper we extend an established, single move game theory model to capture the dynamics of two players in a nuclear crisis having varying damage limitation capabilities with uncertain effectiveness. Our model formalizes the logic of the “delicate balance” school of deterrence, which states that leverage in a crisis is driven by the risk each player can take with their combined strategic forces, and that those risks carry uncertainty as nuclear forces are hard to deliver against technologically advanced adversaries. Our model shows that damage limitation capabilities—even those with significant uncertainty around them like cyber or electronic warfare—can drive bargaining outcomes in an array of nuclear crises. We then apply these bargaining outcomes to the expected U.S.-China strategic balance as China builds out its nuclear force through 2035. We apply published force exchange models to determine the expected damage each side will be able to deliver, and we use these values to determine the likelihood that the U.S. can prevail in crises of varying stakes. Last, we show that U.S. policymakers have an array of options to improve future bargaining outcomes, evaluating how additional nuclear forces trade against improvements in damage limitation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2024 Status Update [Slides]

This report provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) and has been expanded from previous editions to also cover 100% clean electricity standards (CES) adopted by a growing number of states. The report, published in slide-deck form along with accompanying data files, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs. The 2023 edition presents historical data through year-end 2023 and projections out to 2050. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: -Evolution of state RPS and CES programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies, often by adopting higher targets and/or broader CES policies. Among the 29 states plus DC with an RPS, 16 have RPS targets of at least 50% of retail sales, and 4 states have a 100% RPS. An additional 16 states have adopted a broader 100% CES. -Historical impacts on renewables development: Almost half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is nominally associated with state RPS requirements. That percentage has declined over time to 35% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2023, though in certain regions RPS policies continue to play a dominant role in driving RE growth. -Future RPS and CES demand and incremental needs: The combined demand for clean electricity from RPS and CES policies will grow from roughly 500 TWh today to 1700 TWh by 2050. Accounting for current supplies—including existing nuclear and hydroelectric generation eligible for CES targets—RPS and CES policies will require 900 TWh of new clean electricity by 2050, equivalent to roughly 3x the historical rate of RPS-buildout. -RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. Most CES targets are not yet in force, and so little compliance experience to-date. -REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs remained at roughly $\$40$/MWh over the past year, just below ACP rates in the larger state markets, while PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise, reaching $\$35$/MWh by year-end 2023 and surpassing ACP levels in some states. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC. -RPS compliance costs: RPS compliance costs average roughly 4% of retail electricity bills across RPS states, though vary widely from state to state, with the highest costs (11-12% of retail bills) in states with solar carve-outs and high SREC prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. DOE Midwest Combined Heat and Power Technical Assistance Partnership (Midwest CHP TAP) (Final Technical Report)

The University of Illinois Chicago (UIC) was awarded the U.S. DOE Midwest Combined Heat and Power Technical Assistance Partnership (Midwest CHP TAP) program to provided technical and policy expertise to support local opportunities to promote CHP, waste heat to power, district energy, and microgrids in the Midwest and Central regions of the U.S. that included the states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin. During this contract period, UIC, through the Midwest CHP TAP activities, provided significant regional support to the U.S. strategic goals of: 1) Stimulating America’s Energy Revolution and Promoting Energy Independence; 2) Promoting Jobs and Manufacturing Competitiveness; 3) Supporting a Positive Trade Balance; 4) Enhancing Energy System Resiliency and Energy Security; and 5) Improving the Nation’s Infrastructure. UIC met the annual go/no-go metrics each year and either met and/or exceeded the milestones each year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗