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At least 73 records · Page 4

Practices in Adequate Structural Design

Structural design and verification of space vehicles and space systems is a very tricky and awe inspiring business, particularly for manned missions. Failures in the missions with loss of life is devastating personally and nationally. The scope of the problem is driven by high performance requirements which push state-of-the-art technologies, creating high sensitivites to small variations and uncertainties. Insurance of safe, reliable flight dictates the use of sound principles, procedures, analysis, and testing. Many of those principles which were refocused by the Space Shuttle Challenger (51-L) accident on January 26, 1986, and the activities conducted to insure safe shuttle reflights are discussed. The emphasis will be focused on engineering, while recognizing that project and project management are also key to success.

Ryan, Robert S.↗

Energy coupling in catastrophic collisions

The prediction of events leading to the catastrophic collisions and disruption of solar system bodies is fraught with the same difficulties as are other theories of impact events; since one simply cannot perform experiments in the regime of interest. In the catastrophic collisions of asteroids that regime involves bodies of a few tons to hundred of kilometers in diameter, and velocities of several kilometers pre second. For hundred kilometer bodies, gravitational stresses dominate material fracture strengths, but those gravitational stresses are essentially absent for laboratory experiments. Only numerical simulations using hydrocodes can in principle analyze the true problems, but they have their own major uncertainties about the correctness of the physical models and properties. The question of the measure of the impactor and its energy coupling is investigated using numerical code calculations. The material model was that of a generic silicate rock, including high pressure melt and vapor phases, and includes material nonlinearity and dissipation via a Mie-Gruniesen model. A series of calculations with various size ratios and impact velocities are reported.

Holsapple, K. A.↗

On Bayesian Inductive Inference & Predictive Estimation

We investigate Bayesian inference and the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME) as methods for doing inference under uncertainty. This investigation is primarily through concrete examples that have been previously investigated in the literature. We find that it is possible to do Bayesian inference and PME inference using the same information, despite claims to the contrary, but that the results are not directly comparable. This is because Bayesian inference yields a probability density function (pdf) over the unknown model parameters, whereas PME yields point estimates. If mean estimates are extracted from the Bayesian pdfs, the resulting parameter estimates can differ radically from the PME values and also from the Maximum Likelihood values. We conclude that these differences are due to the Bayesian inference not assuming anything beyond the given prior probabilities and the data, whereas PME implicitly assumes that the given constraints are the only constraints that are operating. Since this assumption can be wrong, PME values may have to be revised when subsequent data shows evidence for more constraints. The entropy concentration previously "proved" by E. T. Jaynes is shown to be in error. Further, we show that PME is a generalized form of independence assumption, and so can be a very powerful method of inference when the variables being investigated are largely independent of each other.

Cheeseman, Peter↗

Black Hole Mergers as Probes of Structure Formation

Intense structure formation and reionization occur at high redshift, yet there is currently little observational information about this very important epoch. Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole (MBH) mergers can provide us with important clues about the formation of structures in the early universe. Past efforts have been limited to calculating merger rates using different models in which many assumptions are made about the specific values of physical parameters of the mergers, resulting in merger rate estimates that span a very wide range (0.1 - 104 mergers/year). Here we develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model of MBH mergers that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters, which we then turn around to determine how well observations with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z 5 - 30 structure formation era. We do this by generating synthetic LISA observable data (total BH mass, BH mass ratio, redshift, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. This allows us to constrain the physical parameters of the mergers. We find that our methodology works well at estimating merger parameters, consistently giving results within 1- of the input parameter values. We also discover that the number of merger events is a key discriminant among models. This helps our method be robust against observational uncertainties. Our approach, which at this stage constitutes a proof of principle, can be readily extended to physical models and to more general problems in cosmology and gravitational wave astrophysics.

Alicea-Munoz, E.↗

Assessment of the Accuracy of the Conventional Ray-Tracing Technique: Implications in Remote Sensing and Radiative Transfer Involving Ice Clouds.

A fundamental problem in remote sensing and radiative transfer simulations involving ice clouds is the ability to compute accurate optical properties for individual ice particles. While relatively simple and intuitively appealing, the conventional geometric-optics method (CGOM) is used frequently for the solution of light scattering by ice crystals. Due to the approximations in the ray-tracing technique, the CGOM accuracy is not well quantified. The result is that the uncertainties are introduced that can impact many applications. Improvements in the Invariant Imbedding T-matrix method (II-TM) and the Improved Geometric-Optics Method (IGOM) provide a mechanism to assess the aforementioned uncertainties. The results computed by the II-TMþIGOM are considered as a benchmark because the IITM solves Maxwell's equations from first principles and is applicable to particle size parameters ranging into the domain at which the IGOM has reasonable accuracy. To assess the uncertainties with the CGOM in remote sensing and radiative transfer simulations, two independent optical property datasets of hexagonal columns are developed for sensitivity studies by using the CGOM and the II-TMþIGOM, respectively. Ice cloud bulk optical properties obtained from the two datasets are compared and subsequently applied to retrieve the optical thickness and effective diameter from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements. Additionally, the bulk optical properties are tested in broadband radiative transfer (RT) simulations using the general circulation model (GCM) version of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTMG) that is adopted in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM, version 5.1). For MODIS retrievals, the mean bias of uncertainties of applying the CGOM in shortwave bands (0.86 and 2.13 micrometers) can be up to 5% in the optical thickness and as high as 20% in the effective diameter, depending on cloud optical thickness and effective diameter. In the MODIS infrared window bands centered at 8.5, 11, and 12 micrometers biases in the optical thickness and effective diameter are up to 12% and 10%, respectively. The CGOM-based simulation errors in ice cloud radiative forcing calculations are on the order of 10Wm(exp 2).

remote sensing↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Science Goals in Radiation Protection for Exploration

Space radiation presents major challenges to future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Health risks of concern include cancer, degenerative and performance risks to the central nervous system, heart and lens, and the acute radiation syndromes. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contain high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, which have been shown to cause qualitatively distinct biological damage compared to terresterial radiation, such as X-rays or gamma-rays, causing risk estimates to be highly uncertain. The biological effects of solar particle events (SPE) are similar to terresterial radiation except for their biological dose-rate modifiers; however the onset and size of SPEs are difficult to predict. The high energies of GCR reduce the effectiveness of shielding, while SPE s can be shielded however the current gap in radiobiological knowledge hinders optimization. Methods used to project risks on Earth must be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting health risks from space radiation, and thus impact mission requirements and costs. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies probabilistic risk assessments and uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts and to mission design. The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in radiation risk projection models. Exploration science goals in radiation protection are centered on ground-based research to achieve the necessary biological knowledge, and in the development of new technologies to improve SPE monitoring and optimize shielding. Radiobiology research is centered on a ground based program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and HZE nuclei at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) located at DoE s Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, NY. We describe recent NSRL results that are closing the knowledge gap in HZE radiobiology and improving exploration risk estimates. Linking probabilistic risk assessment to research goals makes it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, which include the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits, and probabilistic assessments of the effectiveness of design trade spaces such as material type, mass, solar cycle, crew selection criteria, and biological countermeasures. New research in SPE alert and risk assessment, individual radiation sensitivity, and biological countermeasure development are described.

Cucinotta, Francs A.↗

The concertina hydrogen maser

A description is presented of a promising approach for measuring the wall shift in a hydrogen maser with a net uncertainty of one or two parts in 100 trillion. The hydrogen maser principles are briefly examined and the wall shift is discussed, taking into account the interaction of the atom with the wall, the wall shift relationship, and previous wall shift measurement techniques. The essential principles of a 'concertina' variable volume bulb maser are considered along with variable volume maser wall shift errors, design details, and the fabrication of the storage bulb.

Peters, H. E.↗

Asymmetric Uncertainty Expression for High Gradient Aerodynamics

When the physics of the flow around an aircraft changes very abruptly either in time or space (e.g., flow separation/reattachment, boundary layer transition, unsteadiness, shocks, etc), the measurements that are performed in a simulated environment like a wind tunnel test or a computational simulation will most likely incorrectly predict the exact location of where (or when) the change in physics happens. There are many reasons for this, includ- ing the error introduced by simulating a real system at a smaller scale and at non-ideal conditions, or the error due to turbulence models in a computational simulation. The un- certainty analysis principles that have been developed and are being implemented today do not fully account for uncertainty in the knowledge of the location of abrupt physics changes or sharp gradients, leading to a potentially underestimated uncertainty in those areas. To address this problem, a new asymmetric aerodynamic uncertainty expression containing an extra term to account for a phase-uncertainty, the magnitude of which is emphasized in the high-gradient aerodynamic regions is proposed in this paper. Additionally, based on previous work, a method for dispersing aerodynamic data within asymmetric uncer- tainty bounds in a more realistic way has been developed for use within Monte Carlo-type analyses.

Pinier, Jeremy T↗

Space vehicle thermal testing: Principles, practices and effectiveness

Component qualification and acceptance temperatures are derived from worst case thermal analyses and analytic uncertainty margin subject to certain specified temperature extremes. Temperature requirements are shown for equipment operation within specification and for survival and turn-on (need not operate within specification, but must not experience any degradation when returned to operational range). Temperature excursions for most equipment are seen to be 20 to 50 C above and below room temperature. Components without active electronics which are mounted outboard, such as solar arrays and antennas, are usually designed to withstand wider temperature excursions, particularly at the cold end. Batteries are tightly controlled at cold temperatures to increase life. Payload components such as extremely accurate clocks for precise navigation are controlled over a relatively narrow temperature range.

Gluck, Donald F.↗

Robustness of solutions to a benchmark control problem

The robustness of 10 solutions to a benchmark control design problem presented at the 1990 American Control Conference has been evaluated. The 10 controllers have second-to-eighth-order transfer functions and have been designed using several different methods, including H-infinity optimization, loop-transfer recovery, imaginary-axis shifting, constrained optimization, structured covariance, game theory, and the internal model principle. Stochastic robustness analysis quantifies the controllers' stability and performance robustness with structured uncertainties in up to six system parameters. The analysis provides insights into system response that are not readily derived from other robustness criteria and provides a common ground for judging controllers produced by alternative methods. One important conclusion is that gain and phase margins are not reliable indicators of the probability of instability. Furthermore, parameter variations actually may improve the likelihood of achieving selected performance metrics, as demonstrated by results for the probability of settling-time exceedance.

Stengel, Robert F.↗

Soft X-ray spectrum of BL Lacertae object AO 0235+164 as a tracer of elemental abundances at z approximately 0.5

We report the soft X-ray spectrum of BL Lac object AO 0235+164, observed with the Einstein Observatory Imaging Proportional Counter (IPC). This object (z = 0.94) has an intervening galaxy (or a protogalactic disk) at z = 0.524 present in the line of sight, producing both radio and optical absorption lines in the background BL Lac continuum. The X-ray spectrum exhibits a substantial soft X-ray cutoff, corresponding to several times that expected from our own Galaxy; we interpret that excess cutoff as due to the intervening galaxy. The comparison of the hydrogen column density inferred from the 21 cm radio data and the X-ray absorption allows, in principle, the determination of the elemental abundances in the intervening galaxy. However, the uncertainties in both the H I spin temperature and X-ray spectral parameters only loosely restrict these abundances to be 2 +/- 1 solar, which even at the lower limit appears higher than that inferred from studies of samples of optical absoprtion-line systems.

Madejski, Greg↗

Regional and Model-Specific Response Types in A Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Crop models are often employed to project crop yields under changing conditions such as global warming and associated management change for adaptation. Multi-model ensembles are promoted to enhance the robustness of projections, but questions remain on what causes often large differences between projections of individual models. Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) are especially exposed to this question when applied for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, environmental impacts of agricultural production, because their results are used in downstream analyses, such as in integrated assessment or economic modeling for projecting future land-use change. Even though global gridded crop models are often based on detailed field-scale models or have implemented similar modeling principles in other ecosystem models, global-scale models are subject to substantial uncertainties from both model structure and parametrization as well as from calibration and input data quality. AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) has thus set out to intercompare GGCMs in order to evaluate model performance, describe model uncertainties, identify inconsistencies within the ensemble and underlying reasons, and to ultimately improve models and modeling capacities. In phase 2 of the GGCMI activities, 12 modeling groups followed a modeling protocol that asked for up to 1404 31-year global simulations at 0.5 arc-degree spatial resolution to assess models’ sensitivities to changes in carbon dioxide (C; 4 different levels) temperature (T; 7 different offset levels), water supply (W; 9 levels), and nitrogen (N; 3 levels), the so-called CTWN experiment (Franke et al. 2020; http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020). We here present analyses of model response types using impact response surfaces along the C, T, W, and N dimensions, respectively and collectively. Doing so, we can understand differences in simulated responses per driver rather than aggregated changes in yields. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual driver dimensions are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. A cluster analysis finds regional and model-specific patterns. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response type clusters across models suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model process evaluation not only against historical dynamics but also against dedicated experiments across the CTWN dimensions.

crop models↗

Robot trajectory tracking with self-tuning predicted control

A controller that combines self-tuning prediction and control is proposed for robot trajectory tracking. The controller has two feedback loops: one is used to minimize the prediction error, and the other is designed to make the system output track the set point input. Because the velocity and position along the desired trajectory are given and the future output of the system is predictable, a feedforward loop can be designed for robot trajectory tracking with self-tuning predicted control (STPC). Parameters are estimated online to account for the model uncertainty and the time-varying property of the system. The authors describe the principle of STPC, analyze the system performance, and discuss the simplification of the robot dynamic equations. To demonstrate its utility and power, the controller is simulated for a Stanford arm.

Cui, Xianzhong↗

Relativity Parameters Determined from Lunar Laser Ranging

Analysis of 24 years of lunar laser ranging data is used to test the principle of equivalence, geodetic precession, the PPN parameters beta and gamma, and G/G. Recent data can be fitted with a rms scatter of 3 cm. (a) Using the Nordtvedt effect to test the principle of equivalence, it is found that the Moon and Earth accelerate alike in the Sun's field. The relative accelerations match to within 5 x 10(exp -13) . This limit, combined with an independent determination of y from planetary time delay, gives beta. Including the uncertainty due to compositional differences, the parameter beta differs from unity by no more than 0.0014; and, if the weak equivalence principle is satisfied, the difference is no more than 0.0006. (b) Geodetic precession matches its expected 19.2 marc sec/yr rate within 0.7%. This corresponds to a 1% test of gamma. (c) Apart from the Nordtvedt effect, beta and gamma can be tested from their influence on the lunar orbit. It is argued theoretically that the linear combination 0.8(beta) + 1.4(gamma) can be tested at the 1% level of accuracy. For solutions using numerically derived partial derivatives, higher sensitivity is found. Both 6 and y match the values of general relativity to within 0.005, and the linear combination beta+ gamma matches to within 0,003, but caution is advised due to the lack of theoretical understanding of these sensitivities. (d) No evidence for a changing gravitational constant is found, with absolute value of G/G less than or equal to 8 x lO(exp -12)/yr. There is significant sensitivity to G/G through solar perturbations on the lunar orbit.

Williams, J. G.↗

The Total Synthesis Problem of linear multivariable control. II - Unity feedback and the design morphism

Zames (1981) has observed that there is, in general, no 'separation principle' to guarantee optimality of a division between control law design and filtering of plant uncertainty. Peczkowski and Sain (1978) have solved a model matching problem using transfer functions. Taking into consideration this investigation, Peczkowski et al. (1979) proposed the Total Synthesis Problem (TSP), wherein both the command/output-response and command/control-response are to be synthesized, subject to the plant constraint. The TSP concept can be subdivided into a Nominal Design Problem (NDP), which is not dependent upon specific controller structures, and a Feedback Synthesis Problem (FSP), which is. Gejji (1980) found that NDP was characterized in terms of the plant structural matrices and a single, 'good' transfer function matrix. Sain et al. (1981) have extended this NDP work. The present investigation is concerned with a study of FSP for the unity feedback case. NDP, together with feedback synthesis, is understood as a Total Synthesis Problem.

Sain, M. K.↗

Analysis and Design of Launch Vehicle Flight Control Systems

This paper describes the fundamental principles of launch vehicle flight control analysis and design. In particular, the classical concept of "drift-minimum" and "load-minimum" control principles is re-examined and its performance and stability robustness with respect to modeling uncertainties and a gimbal angle constraint is discussed. It is shown that an additional feedback of angle-of-attack or lateral acceleration can significantly improve the overall performance and robustness, especially in the presence of unexpected large wind disturbance. Non-minimum-phase structural filtering of "unstably interacting" bending modes of large flexible launch vehicles is also shown to be effective and robust.

Wie, Bong↗

Lunar Laser Ranging Science: Gravitational Physics and Lunar Interior and Geodesy

Laser pulses fired at retroreflectors on the Moon provide very accurate ranges. Analysis yields information on Earth, Moon, and orbit. The highly accurate retroreflector positions have uncertainties less than a meter. Tides on the Moon show strong dissipation, with Q=33+/-4 at a month and a weak dependence on period. Lunar rotation depends on interior properties; a fluid core is indicated with radius approx.20% that of the Moon. Tests of relativistic gravity verify the equivalence principle to +/-1.4x10(exp -13), limit deviations from Einstein's general relativity, and show no rate for the gravitational constant G/G with uncertainty 9x10(exp -13)/yr.

relativity↗