Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Unbiased estimator”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Large-Volume Injection and Assessment of Reference Standards for n -Alkane δD and δ 13 C Analysis via Gas Chromatography Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry

Compound-specific stable isotope analysis of hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ 13 C) in organic compounds is a valuable tool in biogeochemical research. A key limitation of this method is the relatively large amount of sample required to achieve desirable precision. We developed a large-volume (20 μL) injection method that allows for high throughput analysis of less concentrated samples and tested it for δ 13 C and δD measurements of n-alkanes. We also conducted a comparison of reference standards and assessed several methods to normalize and correct n-alkane δD and δ13C measurements. The mean precision of the δD method based on 233 environmental n-alkane samples (two to three replications per sample) is 4.0‰ (1σ, estimated from the weighted mean of the pooled unbiased standard deviations) and 0.46‰ (1σ) for δ 13 C from 37 environmental samples (two to three replications per sample). The evaluation of reference standards shows that the use of n-alkane standards with large offsets in δD values in adjacent n-alkane chains can lead to biases in measurement correction. The large-volume injection method shows good reproducibility of δ 13 C and δD measurements of n-alkanes and reduces the required sample concentration by about 80%. We propose that for δD measurements, a reference standard set should be used in which each reference standard has a limited range of δD values and no adjacent n-alkane chains, to minimize memory effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Evaluation of Advanced Tools for Distributed Wind Turbine Performance Estimation

We evaluate various classes of distributed wind turbine performance tools across two sites in the United States. The class of tools ranges from the simple mass conservation model to the coupled Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model, all initiated by the WIND Toolkit data set. The resource estimation at the site is evaluated against measured data at the mast location. Taking a sample 100-kW wind turbine and constant losses, we evaluate Openwind, Continuum, and WindNinja tools and document annual energy production (AEP) and time-series statistics associated with the performance estimation of the wind turbine. Using a methodology that is consistent and unbiased across the three options currently available in the industry, we elaborate results at the two sample locations and discuss the probable sources of discrepancy in the AEP estimates. Two main sources of the discrepancy come from the input WIND Toolkit data and the spatial modeling techniques of the tools to capture atmospheric physics. The discussion includes additional values that these tools may bring into the energy assessment process to enhance the owners' confidence over the distributed wind power systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Proof that Combining the Forced-collision and DXTRAN Monte Carlo Variance-reduction Techniques is Fair

This report provides mathematical proof that the MCNP DXTRAN (also known in other codes as forced-flight) and forced-collision variance-reduction techniques do not bias the expected value of Monte Carlo simulation estimates when combined. Proof is also provided that the techniques are unbiased when used independently. To prove that the techniques are unbiased, this report derives the first History Score Moment Equation (HSME) for non-multiplying media employing only forced collisions, only DXTRAN, and then both the variance-reduction techniques combined, as defined next. The HSMEs are found by forming the History Score Probability Density Functions (HSPDFs) and then taking the first score moment. Following its derivation, each HSME with a variance-reduction technique employed is reduced to the HSME for an analog simulation. Because the HSME represents the expected contribution to estimators in the simulation, reducing the HSME with variance reduction to the analog HSME shows that the simulation is unbiased despite the variance-reduction technique considered in the HSME. Analysis regarding higher-score moments of each technique is the subject of prior work and is not addressed herein. Throughout this work, the phase space p is defined to be the particle position x, direction-of-flight unit vector $\hat{Ω}$, energy E, and statistical weight w, $$p ≡ (x; \hat{Ω}; E; w).$$ A reduced phase-space excluding the statistical weight of the particle, $$r ≡ (x; \hat{Ω}; E),$$ is also used.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

How Climate and Data Quality Impact Photovoltaic Performance Loss Rate Estimations

Different data pipelines and statistical methods are applied to photovoltaic (PV) performance datasets to quantify the performance loss rate (PLR). Since the real values of PLR are unknown, a variety of unvalidated values are reported. As such, the PV industry commonly assumes PLR based on statistically extracted ranges from the literature. However, the accuracy and uncertainty of PLR depend on several parameters including seasonality, local climatic conditions, and the response of a particular PV technology. In addition, the specific data pipeline and statistical method used affect the accuracy and uncertainty. To provide insights, a framework of (≈200 million) synthetic simulations of PV performance datasets using data from different climates is developed. Time series with known PLR and data quality are synthesized, and large parametric studies are conducted to examine the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical approaches over the contiguous US, with an emphasis on the publicly available and “standardized” library, RdTools . In the results, it is confirmed that PLRs from RdTools are unbiased on average, but the accuracy and uncertainty of individual PLR estimates vary with climate zone, data quality, PV technology, and choice of analysis workflow. Best practices and improvement recommendations based on the findings of this study are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: calibration of lens sample redshift distributions using clustering redshifts with BOSS/eBOSS

ABSTRACT We present clustering redshift measurements for Dark Energy Survey (DES) lens sample galaxies used in weak gravitational lensing and galaxy clustering studies. To perform these measurements, we cross-correlate with spectroscopic galaxies from the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Survey (BOSS) and its extension, eBOSS. We validate our methodology in simulations, including a new technique to calibrate systematic errors that result from the galaxy clustering bias, and we find that our method is generally unbiased in calibrating the mean redshift. We apply our method to the data, and estimate the redshift distribution for 11 different photometrically selected bins. We find general agreement between clustering redshift and photometric redshift estimates, with differences on the inferred mean redshift found to be below |Δz| = 0.01 in most of the bins. We also test a method to calibrate a width parameter for redshift distributions, which we found necessary to use for some of our samples. Our typical uncertainties on the mean redshift ranged from 0.003 to 0.008, while our uncertainties on the width ranged from 4 to 9 per cent. We discuss how these results calibrate the photometric redshift distributions used in companion papers for DES Year 3 results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity

Using climate model ensembles containing members that exhibit very high climate sensitivities to increasing CO 2 concentrations can result in biased projections. Various methods have been proposed to ameliorate this ‘hot model’ problem, such as model emulators or model culling. Here, we utilize Bayesian Model Averaging as a framework to address this problem without resorting to outright rejection of models from the ensemble. Taking advantage of multiple lines of evidence used to construct the best estimate of the earth’s climate sensitivity, the Bayesian Model Averaging framework produces an unbiased posterior probability distribution of model weights. The updated multi-model ensemble projects end-of-century global mean surface temperature increases of 2 °C for a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) and 5 °C for a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). These estimates are lower than those produced using a simple multi-model mean for the CMIP6 ensemble. The results are also similar to results from a model culling approach, but retain some weight on low-probability models, allowing for consideration of the possibility that the true value could lie at the extremes of the assessed distribution. Our results showcase Bayesian Model Averaging as a path forward to project future climate change that is commensurate with the available scientific evidence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

BASS. XXIX. The Near-infrared View of the Broad-line Region (BLR): The Effects of Obscuration in BLR Characterization

Virial black hole (BH) mass (M BH ) determination directly involves knowing the broad-line region (BLR) clouds' velocity distribution, their distance from the central supermassive BH (R BLR ), and the virial factor (f). Understanding whether biases arise in M BH estimation with increasing obscuration is possible only by studying a large (N > 100) statistical sample of obscuration-unbiased (hard) X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the rest-frame near-infrared (0.8–2.5 μm) since it penetrates deeper into the BLR than the optical. We present a detailed analysis of 65 local Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) selected Seyfert galaxies observed with Magellan/FIRE. Adding these to the near-infrared BAT AGN spectroscopic survey database, we study a total of 314 unique near-infrared spectra. While the FWHMs of Hα and near-infrared broad lines (He i, Paβ, Paα) remain unbiased to either BLR extinction or X-ray obscuration, the Hα broad-line luminosity is suppressed when N H ≳ 10 21 cm –2 , systematically underestimating M BH by 0.23–0.46 dex. Near-infrared line luminosities should be preferred to Hα until N H < 10 22 cm –2 , while at higher obscuration a less-biased R BLR proxy should be adopted. We estimate f for Seyfert 1 and 2 using two obscuration-unbiased M BH measurements, i.e., the stellar velocity dispersion and a BH mass prescription based on near-infrared and X-ray, and find that the virial factors do not depend on the redshift or obscuration, but some broad lines show a mild anticorrelation with M BH . Furthermore, our results show the critical impact obscuration can have on BLR characterization and the importance of the near-infrared and X-rays for a less-biased view of the BLR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Study on the Photoelectrochemical Hydrogen Production from the Layout Optimization in a Unit Cell

Solar-driven water splitting is achieved by connecting photovoltaics with electrolysis. Recently, integrated approaches of the two configurations for photoelectrochemical reactions have shown great potential in a combined unit, but strategies to address further material and cell development face significant scientific challenges. Here, in this work, we present an experimental demonstration of photoelectrochemical (PEC) unit-cells with efficient separate dual compartments for oxygen evolution and hydrogen evolution reactions. The design and fabrication of cell architectures with various degrees of integration are investigated efficient and sustainable PEC processes. The effect of the nanostructured silicon (Si) photoelectrodes, including the adoption of layer architectures, surface protection layer deposition, and membrane electrode assembly is further studied to optimize the design parameters of the PEC unit-cells. This developed PEC cell with the Si photocathode achieved a photocurrent density of -4.8 mA cm –2 at -2.0 V cell and -2.87 mA cm –2 at -1.6 V cell . It clearly provides a critical milestone for unbiased solar water splitting. Practical solar to hydrogen (STH) can be directly estimated in investigating PEC performance in this unit-cell as assembled with a solar cell. It is a significantly meaningful step forward in practical solar fuel production.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inference of gravitational lensing and patchy reionization with future CMB data

We develop an optimal Bayesian solution for jointly inferring secondary signals in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) originating from gravitational lensing and from patchy screening during the epoch of reionization. This method is able to extract full information content from the data, improving upon previously considered quadratic estimators for lensing and screening. Here, we forecast constraints using the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) method, and show that they are largely dominated by CMB polarization, and depend on the exact details of reionization. For models consistent with current data which produce the largest screening signals, a detection (3 σ) of the cross-correlation between lensing and screening is possible with SPT-3G, and a detection of the auto-correlation is possible with CMB-S4. Models with the lowest screening signals evade the sensitivity of SPT-3G, but are still possible to detect with CMB-S4 via their lensing cross-correlation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Small-correlated-against-large estimator for the lensing of the cosmic microwave background

Weak gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) carries imprints of the physics operating at redshifts much lower than that of recombination and serves as an important probe of cosmological structure formation, dark matter physics, and the mass of neutrinos. Reconstruction of the CMB lensing deflection field through use of quadratic estimators has proven successful with existing data but is known to be sub-optimal on small angular scales ($\ell > 3000$) for experiments with low noise levels. Future experiments will provide better observations in this regime, but these techniques will remain statistically limited by their approximations. We show that correlations between fluctuations of the large-scale temperature gradient power of the CMB sourced by $\ell < 2000$, and fluctuations of the local small-scale temperature power reveal a lensing signal which is prominent in even the real-space pixel statistics across a CMB temperature map. We present the development of the Small Correlated Against Large Estimator (SCALE), a novel estimator for the CMB lensing spectrum which offers promising complementary analysis alongside other reconstruction techniques in this regime. The SCALE method computes correlations between both the large/small-scale temperature gradient power in harmonic space, and it is able to quantitatively recover unbiased statistics of the CMB lensing field without the need for map-level reconstruction. SCALE can outperform quadratic estimator signal-to-noise by a factor of up to 1.5 in current and upcoming experiments for CMB lensing power spectra $C_{6000 < L < 8000}^{\phi\phi}$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Primordial non-Gaussianity with angular correlation function: integral constraint and validation for DES

ABSTRACT Local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) is a promising observable of the underlying physics of inflation, characterized by $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$. We present the methodology to measure $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) data using the two-point angular correlation function (ACF) with scale-dependent bias. One of the focuses of the work is the integral constraint (IC). This condition appears when estimating the mean number density of galaxies from the data and is key in obtaining unbiased $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ constraints. The methods are analysed for two types of simulations: ∼246 goliat-png N-body small area simulations with fNL equal to −100 and 100, and 1952 Gaussian ice-cola mocks with fNL = 0 that follow the DES angular and redshift distribution. We use the ensemble of goliat-png mocks to show the importance of the IC when measuring PNG, where we recover the fiducial values of fNL within the 1σ when including the IC. In contrast, we found a bias of ΔfNL ∼ 100 when not including it. For a DES-like scenario, we forecast a bias of ΔfNL ∼ 23, equivalent to 1.8σ, when not using the IC for a fiducial value of fNL = 100. We use the ice-cola mocks to validate our analysis in a realistic DES-like set-up finding it robust to different analysis choices: best-fitting estimator, the effect of IC, BAO damping, covariance, and scale choices. We forecast a measurement of fNL within σ(fNL) = 31 when using the DES-Y3 BAO sample, with the ACF in the 1 deg < θ < 20 deg range.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmology From CMB Lensing and Delensed EE Power Spectra Using 2019-2020 SPT-3G Polarization Data

From CMB polarization data alone we reconstruct the CMB lensing power spectrum, comparable in overall constraining power to previous temperature-based reconstructions, and an unlensed E -mode power spectrum, with clear detections of the third through tenth acoustic peaks. The observations, taken in 2019 and 2020 with the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and the SPT-3G camera, cover 1500 deg 2 at 95, 150, and 220 GHz with arcminute resolution and roughly 4.9 µ K-arcmin coadded noise in polarization. The power spectrum estimates, together with systematic parameter estimates and a joint covariance matrix, follow from a Bayesian analysis using the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) method. The E -mode spectrum at ℓ > 2000 and lensing spectrum at L > 350 are the most precise to date. Assuming the ΛCDM model, and using only these SPT data and priors on τ and absolute calibration from Planck, we find H 0 = 66.81 ± 0.81 km/s/Mpc, comparable in precision to the Planck determination and in 5.4 σ tension with the most precise H 0 inference derived via the distance ladder. We also find S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.850 ± 0.017, providing further independent evidence of a slight tension with low-redshift structure probes. The ΛCDM model provides a good simultaneous fit to the combined Planck, ACT, and SPT data, and thus passes a powerful test. Combining these CMB datasets with BAO observations, we explore extensions to the ΛCDM model. We find that the effective number of neutrino species, spatial curvature, and primordial helium fraction are consistent with standard model values, and that the 95% confidence upper limit on the neutrino mass sum is 0.075 eV, close to the minimum sum expected from observations of solar and atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The SPT data are consistent with the somewhat weak (< 3 σ ) preference for excess lensing power seen in Planck and ACT data relative to predictions of the ΛCDM model given the combined Planck, ACT, and BAO data sets. Finally, we also detect at greater than 3 σ the influence of non-linear evolution in the CMB lensing power spectrum and discuss it in the context of the S 8 tension. Forthcoming SPT-3G analyses will feature deeper and wider observations in temperature and polarization, providing even tighter constraints and more powerful tests of the ΛCDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

All-purpose, all-sky photometric redshifts for the Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 8

ABSTRACT In this paper, we present photometric redshift (photo-z) estimates for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys, currently the most sensitive optical survey covering the majority of the extragalactic sky. Our photo-z methodology is based on a machine-learning approach, using sparse Gaussian processes augmented with Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) that allow regions of parameter space to be identified and trained separately in a purely data-driven way. The same GMMs are also used to calculate cost-sensitive learning weights that mitigate biases in the spectroscopic training sample. By design, this approach aims to produce reliable and unbiased predictions for all parts of the parameter space present in wide area surveys. Compared to previous literature estimates using the same underlying photometry, our photo-zs are significantly less biased and more accurate at z > 1, with negligible loss in precision or reliability for resolved galaxies at z < 1. Our photo-z estimates offer accurate predictions for rare high-value populations within the parent sample, including optically selected quasars at the highest redshifts (z > 6), as well as X-ray or radio continuum selected populations across a broad range of flux (densities) and redshift. Deriving photo-z estimates for the full Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 8, the catalogues provided in this work offer photo-z estimates predicted to be of high quality for ≳9 × 108 galaxies over ${\sim}19\, 400\, \text{deg}^{2}$ and spanning 0 < z ≲ 7, offering one of the most extensive samples of redshift estimates ever produced.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. II. Bayesian model calibration

Dynamic shockless compression experiments provide the ability to explore material behavior at extreme pressures but relatively low temperatures. Typically, the data from these types of experiments are interpreted through an analytic method called Lagrangian analysis. Here, in this work, alternative analysis methods are explored using modern statistical methods. Specifically, Bayesian model calibration is applied to a new set of platinum data shocklessly compressed to 570 GPa. Several platinum equation-of-state models are evaluated, including traditional parametric forms as well as a novel non-parametric model concept. The results are compared to those in Paper I obtained by inverse Lagrangian analysis. The comparisons suggest that Bayesian calibration is not only a viable framework for precise quantification of the compression path, but also reveals insights pertaining to trade-offs surrounding model form selection, sensitivities of the relevant experimental uncertainties, and assumptions and limitations within Lagrangian analysis. The non-parametric model method, in particular, is found to give precise unbiased results and is expected to be useful over a wide range of applications. The calibration results in estimates of the platinum principal isentrope over the full range of experimental pressures to a standard error of 1.6%, which extends the results from Paper I while maintaining the high precision required for the platinum pressure standard.

Brown, Justin Lee↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiation Dose Modeling for Niowave’s Accelerator Driven Uranium Target Assembly 3

Molybdenum-99 is a high-value radionuclide commonly used for medical purposes within the United States. The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) seeks to reliably produce the radioisotope 99 Mo without the use of highly enriched uranium. NNSA’s Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3) provides funding and government laboratory expertise to private companies to expedite the production process domestically and currently funds designs that use low-enriched uranium or other 99 Mo production pathways. Several production designs are being explored across the industry, including uranium fission and photonuclear conversion of 100 Mo targets. Niowave Inc. seeks to produce 99 Mo via a high-energy electron accelerator that strikes a lead-bismuth eutectic target that ultimately produces a consistent neutron flux. The neutron flux then interacts in a subcritical reactor core configuration to produce fission in low-enriched or natural uranium targets. These fissionable targets are then processed to extract 99 Mo. The purpose of this work is to estimate the neutron and photon dose response across Niowave’s proposed facility for worker safety during operation. Owing to the size of the proposed Niowave facility and necessary shielding, unbiased Monte Carlo radiation transport is impractical, and variance reduction methods are required. This work focuses on the weight window variance reduction method to produce high confidence dose response results within a Monte Carlo radiation transport code. Specifically, an adjoint-informed weight window methodology was created to improve the dose response estimates for accelerator-driven subcritical reactor designs. This adjoint-informed methodology was implemented for Niowave’s proposed design and improved dose results at far-field locations across the facility. Acceptable dose rate contours for the proposed facility were generated across the facility and are presented in this work.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

CIS Project 22359, Final Technical Report. Discretized Posterior Approximation in High Dimensions

Our primary aim in this work is to understand how to efficiently obtain reliable uncertainty quantification in automatic learning algorithms with limited training datasets. Standard approaches rely on cross-validation to tune hyper parameters. Unfortunately, when our datasets are too small, holdout datasets become unreliable—albeit unbiased—measures of prediction quality due to the lack of adequate sample size. We should not place confidence in holdout estimators under conditions wherein the sample variance is both large and unknown. More poigniantly, our training experiments on limited data (Duersch and Catanach, 2021) show that even if we could improve estimator quality under these conditions, the typical training trajectory may never even encounter generalizable models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A haplotype‐resolved reference genome of Quercus alba sheds light on the evolutionary history of oaks

Summary White oak ( Quercus alba ) is an abundant forest tree species across eastern North America that is ecologically, culturally, and economically important. We report the first haplotype‐resolved chromosome‐scale genome assembly of Q. alba and conduct comparative analyses of genome structure and gene content against other published Fagaceae genomes. We investigate the genetic diversity of this widespread species and the phylogenetic relationships among oaks using whole genome data. Despite strongly conserved chromosome synteny and genome size across Quercus , certain gene families have undergone rapid changes in size, including defense genes. Unbiased annotation of resistance (R) genes across oaks revealed that the overall number of R genes is similar across species – as are the chromosomal locations of R gene clusters – but, gene number within clusters is more labile. We found that Q. alba has high genetic diversity, much of which predates its divergence from other oaks and likely impacts divergence time estimations. Our phylogenetic results highlight widespread phylogenetic discordance across the genus. The white oak genome represents a major new resource for studying genome diversity and evolution in Quercus . Additionally, we show that unbiased gene annotation is key to accurately assessing R gene evolution in Quercus .

Larson, Drew A. [Department of Biology Indiana Uni↗
DOE OSTI2026

BICEP/Keck. XX. Component-separated Maps of the Polarized Cosmic Microwave Background and Thermal Dust Emission Using Planck and BICEP/Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season

We present component-separated polarization maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and Galactic thermal dust emission, derived using data from the BICEP/Keck experiments through the 2018 observing season and Planck. By employing a maximum-likelihood method that utilizes observing matrices, we produce unbiased maps of the CMB and dust signals. We outline the computational challenges and demonstrate an efficient implementation of the component map estimator. We show methods to compute and characterize power spectra of these maps, opening up an alternative way to infer the tensor-to-scalar ratio from our data. We compare the results of this map-based separation method with the baseline BICEP/Keck analysis. Our analysis demonstrates consistency between the two methods, finding an 84% correlation between the pipelines.

cosmic inflation↗