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DOE OSTI2021

Attention Network Forecasts Time-to-Failure in Laboratory Shear Experiments

Rocks under stress deform by creep mechanisms that include formation and slip on small-scale internal cracks. Intragranular cracks and slip along grain contacts release energy as elastic waves termed acoustic emissions (AE). AEs are thought to contain predictive information that can be used for fault failure forecasting. Here, we present a method using unsupervised classification and an attention network to forecast labquakes using AE waveform features. Our data were generated in a laboratory setting using a biaxial shearing device with granular fault gouge intended to mimic the conditions of tectonic faults. Here, we analyzed the temporal evolution of AEs generated throughout several hundred laboratory earthquake cycles. We used a Conscience Self-Organizing Map (CSOM) to perform topologically ordered vector quantization based on waveform properties. The resulting map was used to interactively cluster AEs. We examined the clusters over time to identify those with predictive ability. Finally, we used a variety of LSTM and attention-based networks to test the predictive power of the AE clusters. By tracking cumulative waveform features over the seismic cycle, the network is able to forecast the time-to-failure (TTF) of lab earthquakes. Our results show that analyzing the data to isolate predictive signals and using a more sophisticated network architecture are key to robustly forecasting labquakes. In the future, this method could be applied on tectonic faults to monitor earthquakes and augment early warning systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deep learning methods for event verification and image re-purposing detection

Systems and methods herein describe accessing an image, generating a resized image, generating an image feature vector by applying an image classification neural network to the resized image, generating analysis of the image by processing the image feature vector using a machine-learning classifier trained to analyze the image feature vector, and based on the analysis, determining an event that is attributed to the image.

Nataraj, Lakshmanan↗

NASA NTRS2005

Crustal Deformation and the Seismic Cycle Across the Kodiak Islands, Alaska

The Kodiak Islands are located approximately 120 to 250 km from the Alaska-Aleutian Trench - and are within the southern extent of the 1964 Prince William Sound (M(sub w) = 9.2) earthquake rupture zone. Here we report new campaign GPS results (1993-2001) from northern Kodiak Island. The rate and orientation of the horizontal velocities, relative to a fixed North America, range from 25.3 plus or minus 1.4 mm/yr at N32.9 deg. W plus or minus 2.5 to 8.5 plus or minus 1.0 mm/yr at N59.7 deg. W plus or minus 6.5 deg. In addition to the northern Kodiak data, we analyzed data from three southern Kodiak Island stations. The inland stations from both the northern and southern networks indicate a counterclockwise rotation of the velocity vectors. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the difference between the Pacific-North American plate motion and the orientation of the down going slab would lead to 4-8 mm/yr of left-lateral slip above the unlocked, down-dip portion of the main thrust zone. The northern and southern Kodiak geodetic data are consistent with a model that includes the viscoelastic response to (1) a downgoing Pacific plate interface that is locked at shallow depths, (2) local coseismic slip in the 1964 earthquake, and (3) interseismic creep down dip from the seismogenic zone. Based on the pre-1964 and post-1944 earthquake history, as well as the pattern of interseismic earthquakes across the plate boundary zone, we hypothesize that in southern Kodiak some strain is released in moderate to large earthquakes between the occurrences of great earthquakes like the 1964 event.

Sauber, Jeanne↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurements of Higgs bosons decaying to bottom quarks from vector boson fusion production with the ATLAS experiment at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {TeV}$

The paper presents a measurement of the Standard Model Higgs Boson decaying to b-quark pairs in the vector boson fusion (VBF) production mode. A sample corresponding to 126 fb –1 of √s = 13TeV proton–proton collision data, collected with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, is analyzed utilizing an adversarial neural network for event classification. The signal strength, defined as the ratio of the measured signal yield to that predicted by the Standard Model for VBF Higgs production, is measured to be $0.95$ $^{+0.38}_{–0.36}$, corresponding to an observed (expected) significance of 2.6 (2.8) standard deviations from the background only hypothesis. The results are additionally combined with an analysis of Higgs bosons decaying to b-quarks, produced via VBF in association with a photon.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Source Analysis of Ozone Pollution in Liaoyuan City’s Atmosphere Based on Machine Learning Models and HYSPLIT Clustering Method

Firstly, this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the ozone (O 3 ) pollution in Liaoyuan City using monitoring data from 2015 to 2024. Then, three machine learning models (ML)—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—are employed to quantify the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on O 3 concentrations. Finally, the HYSPLIT clustering method and CMAQ model are utilized to analyze inter-regional transport characteristics, identifying the causes of O 3 pollution. The results indicate that O 3 pollution in Liaoyuan exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest concentrations found in spring and summer, peaking in the afternoon. Among the three ML models, the random forest model demonstrates the best predictive performance (R 2 = 0.9043). Feature importance identifies NO 2 as the primary driving factor, followed by meteorological conditions in the second quarter and land surface characteristics. Furthermore, regional transport significantly contributes to O 3 pollution, with approximately 80% of air mass trajectories in heavily polluted episodes originating from adjacent industrial areas and the sea. The combined effects of transboundary precursors and O 3 transport with local emissions and meteorological conditions further increase the O 3 pollution level. This study highlights the need to strengthen coordinated NO X and VOCs emission reductions and enhance regional joint prevention and control strategies in China.

HYSPLIT clustering↗

NASA NTRS2022

Scraping Unstructured Data to Explore the Relationship between Rainfall Anomalies and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreaks

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue account for 17% of all infectious disease cases and lead to more than 700,000 deaths per year. Tracking and predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases is a vital task that could save hundreds of thousands of lives annually. Oftentimes, the first reports of vector-borne disease outbreaks occur through emails and online reporting systems long before they are officially documented. Tracking and predicting the emergence and spread of vector-borne disease outbreaks requires extracting data from these unstructured sources in combination with historical weather and climate data to understand the underlying background triggers and disease dynamics. In this work, we develop a data extraction pipeline for the online outbreak reporting website ProMED-mail that utilizes a web scraper, transformer neural network summarizer, and named entity recognizer to obtain a dataset of malaria, dengue, zika, and chikungunya outbreaks over the last 30 years. This scraped dataset was further analyzed in association with global rainfall anomalies derived from NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM [Global Precipitation Mission] (IMERG) dataset. This preliminary analysis was to understand the effect of global rainfall patterns on the spread of vector-borne diseases. Analysis of the ProMED-mail and GPM data shows that vector-borne disease outbreaks are clustered towards the tropics and outbreaks are often amplified during the rainy seasons. Our scraped dataset can be a valuable tool in creating comprehensive georeferenced disease records for modeling and predicting future outbreaks.

Web scraping↗

NASA NTRS2004

NASA Tech Briefs, August 2004

Topics covered include: Data Relay Board with Protocol for High-Speed, Free-Space Optical Communications; Software and Algorithms for Biomedical Image Data Processing and Visualization; Rapid Chemometric Filtering of Spectral Data; Prioritizing Scientific Data for Transmission; Determining Sizes of Particles in a Flow from DPIV Data; Faster Processing for Inverting GPS Occultation Data; FPGA-Based, Self-Checking, Fault-Tolerant Computers; Ultralow-Power Digital Correlator for Microwave Polarimetry; Grounding Headphones for Protection Against ESD; Lightweight Stacks of Direct Methanol Fuel Cells; Highly Efficient Vector-Inversion Pulse Generators; Estimating Basic Preliminary Design Performances of Aerospace Vehicles; Framework for Development of Object-Oriented Software; Analyzing Spacecraft Telecommunication Systems; Collaborative Planning of Robotic Exploration; Tools for Administration of a UNIX-Based Network; Preparing and Analyzing Iced Airfoils; Evaluating Performance of Components; Fuels Containing Methane of Natural Gas in Solution; Direct Electrolytic Deposition of Mats of MnxOy Nanowires; Bubble Eliminator Based on Centrifugal Flow; Inflatable Emergency Atmospheric-Entry Vehicles; Lightweight Deployable Mirrors with Tensegrity Supports; Centrifugal Adsorption Cartridge System; Ultrasonic Apparatus for Pulverizing Brittle Material; Transplanting Retinal Cells using Bucky Paper for Support; Using an Ultrasonic Instrument to Size Extravascular Bubbles; Coronagraphic Notch Filter for Raman Spectroscopy; On-the-Fly Mapping for Calibrating Directional Antennas; Working Fluids for Increasing Capacities of Heat Pipes; Computationally-Efficient Minimum-Time Aircraft Routes in the Presence of Winds; Liquid-Metal-Fed Pulsed Plasma Thrusters; Personal Radiation Protection System; and Attitude Control for a Solar-Sail Spacecraft.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1996

Image analysis by geostatistical and neural-network methods applications in glaciology

The applicability of neural network techniques, in the classification of ice surfaces and crevasse patterns, was analyzed. The observations of the Bering Glacier (Alaska) obtained from a surface survey and from the global positioning system (GPS) were used. A geographical information system was applied to test the usefulness of standard approaches. The information in the image needed to be reduced prior to the classification. The reduction was performed with a fast variogram algorithm sampling in three oblique directions. The resultant vectors provided the input for the neural network.

Herzfeld, Ute Christina↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Distributed Trust Model Simulator for Energy Grid of Things Distributed Energy Resource Management System

The evolution of networks into more distributed, self-reliant nodes has mitigated single-point failures that plagued traditional centralized networks. Applied to power grids, distributed systems can increase the integrity and availability of grid services while also offering a power management solution. However, while distributed networks provide scalability, security, and sustainability compared to centralized networks, their distributed nature makes them harder for anomaly detection and prevention. Incorporating a Distributed Trust Model (DTM) System into an Energy Grid of Things Distributed Energy Resource Management System (EGOT DERMS) allows grid participants to be characterized and their communication to be analyzed for possible attacks. A Trust Model simulator is needed to evaluate and improve the DTM System.Trustworthiness is calculated using a Trust Model. While many trust models exist, most only consider 2-3 matrices to evaluate trust. The TM proposed in this thesis uses a Metric Vector of Trust (MVoT) monitoring 17 parameters when assessing trust. Moreover, unlike standard trust models, the proposed trust model establishes a method to test the trust between various actors within the network and probe the trust model itself. Using a Trust Model Simulator, MVoT calaculations, initial values, and parameters are fine-tuned to achieve high-confidence message classifications and minimize false positives. The DTM System and Trust Mode Simulation Suite allow for distributed trust evaluation with a real-time classification of EGOT DERMS actors, providing additional security for distributed systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2016

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Safe and efficient surface operations↗

DOE OSTI2020

Real-time biomass feedstock particle quality detection using image analysis and machine vision

Abstract A common and costly challenge in the nascent biorefinery industry is the consistent handling and conveyance of biomass feedstock materials, which can vary widely in their chemical, physical, and mechanical properties. Solutions to cope with varying feedstock qualities will be required, including advanced process controls to adjust equipment and reject feedstocks that do not meet a quality standard. In this work, we present and evaluate methods to autonomously assess corn stover feedstock quality in real time and provide data to process controls with low-cost camera hardware. We explore the use of neural networks to classify feedstocks based on actual processing behavior and pixel matrix feature parameterization to further assess particle attributes that may explain the variable processing behavior. We used the pretrained ResNet neural network coupled with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) time-series classifier trained on our image data, resulting in binary classification of feedstock anomalies with favorable performance. The textural aspects of the image data were statistically analyzed to determine if the textural features were predictive of operational disruptions. The significant textural features were angular second moment, prominence, mean height of surface profile, mean resultant vector, shade, skewness, variation of the polar facet orientation, and direction of azimuthal facets. Expansion of these models is recommended across a wider variety of labeled feedstock images of different qualities and species to develop a more robust tool that may be deployed using low-cost cameras within biorefineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Attention-Augmented Parametric Kernel Graph Neural Network (APKGNN) for Node Classification

We present a new graph neural network, the Attention-based Parametric-Kernel augmented Graph Neural Network (APKGNN), developed for node classification tasks. Despite extensive work on modeling multi-faceted relationships between connected nodes of a graph, the effect of attention on edge features mapped to relationships has not yet been analyzed through learning representation. This study derives such an attention vector by first calculating node features corresponding to endpoints of an edge and then aggregating these with extracted local intrinsic patches of a given graph to generate augmented local patch vectors. This process uses a parametric kernel based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) to embed local neighborhoods of the graph in local patches. The patch vectors then convolve with the above node features to produce an updated node representation. We show that this new learning representation (APKGNN) achieves higher node classification accuracy on tasks - both standard benchmarks (Cora, PubMed, Citeseer) and new experimental short text corpora where nodes correspond to text documents and words. This implementation of the GNN convolution layer outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) algorithms, achieving higher training, validation, and test accuracy by a significant margin on three standard benchmark data sets under both SOTA experimental settings and those for new testbeds.

Bose, Avishek↗

NASA NTRS1993

Efficiently modeling neural networks on massively parallel computers

Neural networks are a very useful tool for analyzing and modeling complex real world systems. Applying neural network simulations to real world problems generally involves large amounts of data and massive amounts of computation. To efficiently handle the computational requirements of large problems, we have implemented at Los Alamos a highly efficient neural network compiler for serial computers, vector computers, vector parallel computers, and fine grain SIMD computers such as the CM-2 connection machine. This paper describes the mapping used by the compiler to implement feed-forward backpropagation neural networks for a SIMD (Single Instruction Multiple Data) architecture parallel computer. Thinking Machines Corporation has benchmarked our code at 1.3 billion interconnects per second (approximately 3 gigaflops) on a 64,000 processor CM-2 connection machine (Singer 1990). This mapping is applicable to other SIMD computers and can be implemented on MIMD computers such as the CM-5 connection machine. Our mapping has virtually no communications overhead with the exception of the communications required for a global summation across the processors (which has a sub-linear runtime growth on the order of O(log(number of processors)). We can efficiently model very large neural networks which have many neurons and interconnects and our mapping can extend to arbitrarily large networks (within memory limitations) by merging the memory space of separate processors with fast adjacent processor interprocessor communications. This paper will consider the simulation of only feed forward neural network although this method is extendable to recurrent networks.

Farber, Robert M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Evolution of Volatile Memory Forensics

The collection and analysis of volatile memory is a vibrant area of research in the cybersecurity community. The ever-evolving and growing threat landscape is trending towards fileless malware, which avoids traditional detection but can be found by examining a system’s random access memory (RAM). Additionally, volatile memory analysis offers great insight into other malicious vectors. It contains fragments of encrypted files’ contents, as well as lists of running processes, imported modules, and network connections, all of which are difficult or impossible to extract from the file system. For these compelling reasons, recent research efforts have focused on the collection of memory snapshots and methods to analyze them for the presence of malware. However, to the best of our knowledge, no current reviews or surveys exist that systematize the research on both memory acquisition and analysis. We fill that gap with this novel survey by exploring the state-of-the-art tools and techniques for volatile memory acquisition and analysis for malware identification. For memory acquisition methods, we explore the trade-offs many techniques make between snapshot quality, performance overhead, and security. For memory analysis, we examined the traditional forensic methods used, including signature-based methods, dynamic methods performed in a sandbox environment, as well as machine learning-based approaches. We summarize the currently available tools, and suggest areas for more research.

Nyholm, Hannah↗

NASA NTRS2010

Performance Analysis of Apollo Navigational Starter Routine

The focus of this project is to recreate and analyze the effectiveness of the original Apollo Starter Routine (ASR) which was used to generate the state vector of the Apollo spacecraft based on a series of radiometric observations. The original Apollo navigation software is unavailable in a modern programming language and the original coding has not been preserved. This necessitates its recreation using the original software documentation. Space Shuttle navigation software does not typically use the ASR or an algorithm like it since the Shuttle s state vector is easily deduced from GPS information or other sources. However, this tactic will be ineffective when trying to determine the state vector of a craft approaching, departing or in orbit around the Moon since the GPS network faces the surface of the Earth, not outer space. The recreation of the ASR from the original documentation is therefore vital as a simulation baseline for the navigation software under development for the Constellation program. The algorithms that make up the ASR will be extracted from the original documentation and adapted for and then implemented in a modern programming language; the majority of it will be coded in Matlab. The ASR s effectiveness will then be tested using simulated tracking data. The ability of the ASR to handle realistically noisy data and the accuracy with which it generates state vectors were analyzed. The ASR proved to be robust enough to process data with range and angle noise as large as 10,000 meters and 10(exp -6) radians together and 300,000 meters and 5x10(exp -4) radians separately at Lunar distances. The ASR was able to handle marginally more noise at distances closer to the Earth where the angle noise was less significant. The ASR is capable of effectively processing 40-80 data points gathered at a rate of one per 20 seconds at close Earth orbit and up to 28-40 data points gathered at a rate of one per minute at distant Earth orbit and Lunar orbit.

Ivanov, Stoyan I.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Visualizing a Vulnerability: Its Connections to Hardware and Software

All Hazards Analysis (AHA) is a framework developed by Idaho National Laboratory that provides capabilities to collect, store, analyze, and visualize critical infrastructure information. A core function of AHA is its ability to simulate faults or outages in networks of infrastructure originating from a plethora of causes, ranging from natural disasters to cyberattacks. AHA utilizes Hardware and Software Bills of Material (HBOM and SBOM, respectively) along with Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEVs) to document the potential attack vectors for each piece of infrastructure. The objective of this contribution to AHA was to create a visualization tool that could capture the small details held in each individual artifact as well as preserve the large-scale connections that link them together to aid threat modeling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

CPS Testbed Architectures for WAMPAC using Industrial Substation and Control Center Platforms and Attack-Defense Evaluation

Advanced persistent threats and cyberattacks can impact wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) system operation. Many cyber-physical system (CPS) testbeds have been developed for attack-defense experimentation and attack-resiliency tools evaluation for WAMPAC, but they are limited to a simulation-and-emulation based environment. This paper presents a quasi-realistic CPS attack-defense testbed-based framework for WAMPAC applications using the industrial substation and control center platforms such as eTerra integrated with the hardware-in-the-loop CPS smart grid testbed available at Iowa State University. The proposed framework includes various combinations of industry-grade substation and control center platforms, communication topologies, real-time digital simulators, and a novel cyber-physical distributed intrusion-and-anomaly detection system (D-IADS) for WAMPAC applications. The D-IADS includes a master at the control center and geographically distributed sensor devices at each substation. Each D-IADS sensor deployed at a substation or control center network monitors ingress and egress traffic, detect intrusions, and dispatch alerts to the D-IADS master. The D-IADS master centrally monitors and analyze the alerts and controls D-IADS sensors. We considered an EMP60 synthetic CPS grid as a case study to demonstrate the framework and proposed D-IADS for WAMPAC applications against cyberattack vectors such as Man-in-the-Middle DNP3 attack, denial-of-service, and data-integrity attacks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2001

Analysis of the Westland Data Set

The "Westland" set of empirical accelerometer helicopter data with seeded and labeled faults is analyzed with the aim of condition monitoring. The autoregressive (AR) coefficients from a simple linear model encapsulate a great deal of information in a relatively few measurements; and it has also been found that augmentation of these by harmonic and other parameters call improve classification significantly. Several techniques have been explored, among these restricted Coulomb energy (RCE) networks, learning vector quantization (LVQ), Gaussian mixture classifiers and decision trees. A problem with these approaches, and in common with many classification paradigms, is that augmentation of the feature dimension can degrade classification ability. Thus, we also introduce the Bayesian data reduction algorithm (BDRA), which imposes a Dirichlet prior oil training data and is thus able to quantify probability of error in all exact manner, such that features may be discarded or coarsened appropriately.

Wen, Fang↗