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At least 73 records · Page 4

Comparison of interplanetary type 2 radio burst observations by ISEE-3, Ulysses, and WIND with applications to space weather prediction

Interplanetary (IP) type 2 radio bursts are produced by IP shocks driven by solar ejecta, presumably involving shock acceleration of electrons that leads to radio emission. These radio bursts, which can be detected remotely by a sensitive spacecraft radio receiver, provide a method of tracking the leading edge of solar ejecta moving outward from the sun. Consequently, observations of these bursts sometimes provide advance warning of one or more days prior to the onset of geomagnetic activity induced by the solar ejecta. A robust lower limit on the fraction of intense geomagnetic storms, that are preceded by IP type 2 bursts, is provided. It is shown that 41 percent of the geomagnetic storms occurring during the interval September 1978 to February 1983 were preceded by type 2 events in this catalog, and reasons why the fraction is not larger are addressed. Differences in the observing capabilities of the International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 3, Ulysses, and WIND, to explain why each of these similar spacecraft radio investigations provides a different perspective of IP type 2 emissions are reviewed.

MacDowall, R. J.↗

Cone Model for Halo CMEs: Application to Space Weather Forecasting

In this study, we present an innovative analytical method to determine the angular width and propagation orientation of halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The relation of CME actual speed with apparent speed and its components measured at different position angle has been investigated. The present work is based on the cone model proposed by Zhao et al. We have improved this model by: (1) eliminating the ambiguity via a new analytical approach, (2) using direct measurements of projection onto the plane of the sky (POS), and (3) determining the actual radial speeds from projection speeds at different position angles to clarify the uncertainty of projection speeds in previous empirical models. Our analytical approach allows us to use coronagraph data to determine accurately the geometrical features of POS projections, such as major axis, minor axis, and the displacement of the center of its projection, and to determine the angular width and orientation of a given halo CME. Our approach allows for the first time the determination of the actual CME speed, width, and source location by using coronagraph data quantitatively and consistently. The method greatly enhances the accuracy of the derived geometrical and kinematical properties of halo CMEs, and can be used to optimize Space Weather forecasts. The applied model predications are in good agreement with observations.

Xie, Hong↗

Matching Observations to Model Resolution for Future Weather and Climate Applications

High spatial resolution sounding observations will improve initialization and assimilation into the next generation forecast models and validation of the next generation of climate models. One such advanced sounder concept for low earth orbit is the Advanced Remote-sensing Imaging Emission Spectrometer (ARIES) which proposes to provide highvspatial hyperspectral resolution observations in the mid to longwave infrared. This paper explores the effects of spatial resolution on the errors expected from the combined use of models and observations for representing scene information. We calculate the frequency response of the instrument and model and determine the error at any given spatial frequency. The results show that it is vital to have observations match the spatial resolution of models to minimize the uncertainty in the representation of the scene contents.

spatial resolution↗

Developing and Evaluating RGB Composite MODIS Imagery for Applications in National Weather Service Forecast Offices

Satellite remote sensing has gained widespread use in the field of operational meteorology. Although raw satellite imagery is useful, several techniques exist which can convey multiple types of data in a more efficient way. One of these techniques is multispectral compositing. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed two multispectral satellite imagery products which utilize data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, based upon products currently generated and used by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). The nighttime microphysics product allows users to identify clouds occurring at different altitudes, but emphasizes fog and low cloud detection. This product improves upon current spectral difference and single channel infrared techniques. Each of the current products has its own set of advantages for nocturnal fog detection, but each also has limiting drawbacks which can hamper the analysis process. The multispectral product combines each current product with a third channel difference. Since the final image is enhanced with color, it simplifies the fog identification process. Analysis has shown that the nighttime microphysics imagery product represents a substantial improvement to conventional fog detection techniques, as well as provides a preview of future satellite capabilities to forecasters.

Oswald, Hayden↗

Restructuring Big Data to Improve Data Access and Performance in Analytic Services Making Research More Efficient for the Study of Extreme Weather Events and Application User Communities

By developing and enhancing various services and tools, the GES DISC provides users with the capability to access and visualize data, and to make comparisons of data from multiple sensor and models via a number of cross-discipline projects. Discovering Data via Faceted Web Interface Web interface to data products and services Search and Download mechanisms Dataset Landing Pages Accessing Data through Interoperable Services: GDS – GrADS Data Server OPeNDAP - Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol WMS – OGC service GIS connector – allowing IS tools to access data easier (coming soon) HTTPS -- direct online access Downloading Data Basics: Subset and egridding Service – Parameter, Spatial, Time, Vertical, Mean averaging, format conversion, and regridding for L3/L4 gridded data Swath Data Subsetter – Parameter, spatial subset of L2 /L1 data. Visualizing Data Online: Giovanni –Visualization and Analysis L3/L4 gridded data AIRS NRT Viewer – AIRS near-real-time DQVis – L2 data quality visualization

data cube↗

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

Dreher, Joseph↗

Earth Remote Sensing for Weather Forecasting and Disaster Applications

NASA's constellation of current missions provide several opportunities to apply satellite remote sensing observations to weather forecasting and disaster response applications. Examples include: Using NASA's Terra and Aqua MODIS, and the NASA/NOAA Suomi-NPP VIIRS missions to prepare weather forecasters for capabilities of GOES-R; Incorporating other NASA remote sensing assets for improving aspects of numerical weather prediction; Using NASA, NOAA, and international partner resources (e.g. ESA/Sentinel Series); and commercial platforms (high-res, or UAV) to support disaster mapping.

Molthan, Andrew↗

Near-Real Time Satellite-Retrieved Cloud and Surface Properties for Weather and Aviation Safety Applications

Cloud properties determined from satellite imager radiances provide a valuable source of information for nowcasting and weather forecasting. In recent years, it has been shown that assimilation of cloud top temperature, optical depth, and total water path can increase the accuracies of weather analyses and forecasts. Aircraft icing conditions can be accurately diagnosed in near-­‐real time (NRT) retrievals of cloud effective particle size, phase, and water path, providing valuable data for pilots. NRT retrievals of surface skin temperature can also be assimilated in numerical weather prediction models to provide more accurate representations of solar heating and longwave cooling at the surface, where convective initiation. These and other applications are being exploited more frequently as the value of NRT cloud data become recognized. At NASA Langley, cloud properties and surface skin temperature are being retrieved in near-­‐real time globally from both geostationary (GEO) and low-­‐earth orbiting (LEO) satellite imagers for weather model assimilation and nowcasting for hazards such as aircraft icing. Cloud data from GEO satellites over North America are disseminated through NCEP, while those data and global LEO and GEO retrievals are disseminated from a Langley website. This paper presents an overview of the various available datasets, provides examples of their application, and discusses the use of the various datasets downstream. Future challenges and areas of improvement are also presented.

Minnis, Patrick↗

Cloud-Based Time Series Analysis of Extremes: Use Cases and Applications

"Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and blizzards, can cause widespread damage, disrupting ecosystems, agricultural production, and economies. The frequency and intensity of these events have been increasing, likely due to climate change, raising concerns and the need for more accurate analysis and predictions. NASA's Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has migrated its long-term historical datasets, including precipitation data from MERRA-2 reanalysis, GLDAS land data assimilation, and IMERG satellite observations, to the cloud. This cloud-stored data enables scientists and researchers to utilize cloud computing for advanced modeling and forecasting of extreme weather events, eliminating the need to download large datasets. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the cloud-based data and services managed by GES DISC; demonstrate methods for accessing and analyzing time series data stored in the cloud; and compare results across various datasets to address critical questions related to extreme precipitation. We will present use cases including: 1. Determining the average total precipitation in California during January and February from 2000 to 2024, and identifying anomalous precipitation in 2021. 2. Calculating the 10, 20, 50, and 100-year return periods for maximum daily rainfall based on 25 years of historical precipitation data (2000-2024) for Maryland.

time series↗

A Bispectral Composite Threshold Approach for Automatic Cloud Detection in VIIRS Imagery

The detection of clouds in satellite imagery has a number of important applications in weather and climate studies. The presence of clouds can alter the energy budget of the Earth‐atmosphere system through scattering and absorption of shortwave radiation and the absorption and re‐emission of infrared radiation at longer wavelengths. The scattering and absorption characteristics of clouds vary with the microphysical properties of clouds, hence the cloud type. Thus, detecting the presence of clouds over a region in satellite imagery is important in order to derive atmospheric or surface parameters that give insight into weather and climate processes. For many applications however, clouds are a contaminant whose presence interferes with retrieving atmosphere or surface information. In these cases, is important to isolate cloud‐free pixels, used to retrieve atmospheric thermodynamic information or surface geophysical parameters, from cloudy ones. This abstract describes an application of a two‐channel bispectral composite threshold (BCT) approach applied to VIIRS imagery. The simplified BCT approach uses only the 10.76 and 3.75 micrometer spectral channels from VIIRS in two spectral tests; a straight‐forward infrared threshold test with the longwave channel and a shortwave - longwave channel difference test. The key to the success of this approach as demonstrated in past applications to GOES and MODIS data is the generation of temporally and spatially dependent thresholds used in the tests from a previous number of days at similar observations to the current data. The paper and subsequent presentation will present an overview of the approach and intercomparison results with other satellites, methods, and against verification data.

LaFontaine Frank J.↗

Pilot's Automated Weather Support System (PAWSS) concepts

The FAA and NASA are investigating concepts for providing automated support to pilots in obtaining and using weather information. The pilot's Automated Weather Support System (PAWSS) activity is using computer technology to assist the pilot in acquiring and displaying weather information in the cockpit, and to assist in assessing and applying weather data in flight management and en route support. The PAWSS concepts include data link communications with a short update cycle of new weather data, color-coded map depictions with alpha-numeric data available for backup and detailed data presentation, automated monitoring of weather trends with alerting for hazardous conditions, and expert system technology applications in weather data assessments and flight management applications.

Crabill, N. L↗

A PBL-radiation model for application to regional numerical weather prediction

Often in the short-range limited-area numerical weather prediction (NWP) of extratropical weather systems the effects of planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes are considered secondarily important. However, it may not be the case for the regional NWP of mesoscale convective systems over the arid and semi-arid highlands of the southwestern and south-central United States in late spring and summer. Over these dry regions, the PBL can grow quite high up into the lower middle troposphere (600 mb) due to very effective solar heating and hence a vigorous air-land thermal interaction can occur. The interaction representing a major heat source for regional dynamical systems can not be ignored. A one-dimensional PBL-radiation model was developed. The model PBL consists of a constant-flux surface layer superposed with a well-mixed (Ekman) layer. The vertical eddy mixing coefficients for heat and momentum in the surface layer are determined according to the surface similarity theory, while their vertical profiles in the Ekman layer are specified with a cubic polynomial. Prognostic equations are used for predicting the height of the nonneutral PBL. The atmospheric radiation is parameterized to define the surface heat source/sink for the growth and decay of the PBL. A series of real-data numerical experiments has been carried out to obtain a physical understanding how the model performs under various atmospheric and surface conditions. This one-dimensional model will eventually be incorporated into a mesoscale prediction system. The ultimate goal of this research is to improve the NWP of mesoscale convective storms over land.

Chang, Chia-Bo↗

Maximum-likelihood spectral estimation and adaptive filtering techniques with application to airborne Doppler weather radar

This dissertation focuses on the signal processing problems associated with the detection of hazardous windshears using airborne Doppler radar when weak weather returns are in the presence of strong clutter returns. In light of the frequent inadequacy of spectral-processing oriented clutter suppression methods, we model a clutter signal as multiple sinusoids plus Gaussian noise, and propose adaptive filtering approaches that better capture the temporal characteristics of the signal process. This idea leads to two research topics in signal processing: (1) signal modeling and parameter estimation, and (2) adaptive filtering in this particular signal environment. A high-resolution, low SNR threshold maximum likelihood (ML) frequency estimation and signal modeling algorithm is devised and proves capable of delineating both the spectral and temporal nature of the clutter return. Furthermore, the Least Mean Square (LMS) -based adaptive filter's performance for the proposed signal model is investigated, and promising simulation results have testified to its potential for clutter rejection leading to more accurate estimation of windspeed thus obtaining a better assessment of the windshear hazard.

Lai, Jonathan Y.↗

Virtual International Satellite Training Experiences for Weather, Marine, Climate, and Environmental Applications

Since January 2020, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, its Cooperative Institutes, and international partners provided over 15,000 hours of virtual satellite focused on user engagement. The training provides and guides users to analyze a large variety of satellite data for weather, climate, and environmental applications and decision support. The training team reached users in over 50 countries via monthly Regional Focus Group and special topic sessions, World Meteorological Organization Regional Association III and IV Workshops, and American Meteorological Society Short Courses. The training sessions were offered in both English and Spanish covering such themes as GOES-R, JPSS and other satellite capabilities, data access using GEONET Cast, data display, and user applications. The training also emphasized the operational application of satellite observations for cross-disciplinary topics like heavy rain and hail events, aviation hazards, fire and smoke detection, volcanic eruptions and ash monitoring, climate indices, monitoring coral reef health, and in tsunami preparedness. The presentation will highlight the methods used and challenges posed by the various training approaches and future modifications to adapt to the virtual environment during training sessions planned for the next year.

Satellite Training↗

International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is an international scientific program to understand the external drivers of space weather. The science and applications of space weather has been brought to prominence because of the rapid development of space based technology that is useful for all human beings. The ISWI program has its roots in the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) program that ran during 2007 - 2009. The primary objective of the ISWI program is to advance the space weather science by a combination of instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of space weather data from the deployed instruments in conjunction with space data, and communicate the results to the public and students. Like the IHY, the ISWI will be a grass roots organization with key participation from national coordinators in cooperation with an international steering committee. This talk outlines the ISWI program including its organization and proposed activities.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

ADAS Update and Maintainability

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service Melbourne (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LOIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LOIS was developed by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (AD AS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Over the years, the LDIS has become problematic to maintain since it depends on AMU-developed shell scripts that were written for an earlier version of the ADAS software. The goals of this task were to update the NWS MLB/SMG LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporate new sources of observational data, and upgrade and modify the AMU-developed shell scripts written to govern the system. In addition, the previously developed ADAS graphical user interface (GUI) was updated. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model used by both groups.

Watson, Leela R.↗