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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

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NASA NTRS2013

Unit-Sphere Anisotropic Multiaxial Stochastic-Strength Model Probability Density Distribution for the Orientation of Critical Flaws

Models that predict the failure probability of monolithic glass and ceramic components under multiaxial loading have been developed by authors such as Batdorf, Evans, and Matsuo. These "unit-sphere" failure models assume that the strength-controlling flaws are randomly oriented, noninteracting planar microcracks of specified geometry but of variable size. This report develops a formulation to describe the probability density distribution of the orientation of critical strength-controlling flaws that results from an applied load. This distribution is a function of the multiaxial stress state, the shear sensitivity of the flaws, the Weibull modulus, and the strength anisotropy. Examples are provided showing the predicted response on the unit sphere for various stress states for isotropic and transversely isotropic (anisotropic) materials--including the most probable orientation of critical flaws for offset uniaxial loads with strength anisotropy. The author anticipates that this information could be used to determine anisotropic stiffness degradation or anisotropic damage evolution for individual brittle (or quasi-brittle) composite material constituents within finite element or micromechanics-based software

Nemeth, Noel↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative comparison of power production and power quality onshore and offshore: a case study from the eastern United States

Abstract. A major issue in quantifying potential power generation from prospective wind energy sites is the lack of observations from heights relevant to modern wind turbines, particularly for offshore where blade tip heights are projected to increase beyond 250 m. We present analyses of uniquely detailed data sets from lidar (light detection and ranging) deployments in New York State and on two buoys in the adjacent New York Bight to examine the relative power generation potential and power quality at these on- and offshore locations. Time series of 10 min wind power production are computed from these wind speeds using the power curve from the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference wind turbine. Given the relatively close proximity of these lidar deployments, they share a common synoptic-scale meteorology and seasonal variability with lowest wind speeds in July and August. Time series of power production from the on- and offshore location are highly spatially correlated with the Spearman rank correlation coefficient dropping below 0.4 for separation distances of approximately 350 km. Hence careful planning of on- and offshore wind farms (i.e., separation of major plants by > 350 km) can be used reduce the system-wide probability of low wind energy power production. Energy density at 150 m height at the offshore buoys is more than 40 % higher, and the Weibull scale parameter is 2 m s−1 higher than at all but one of the land sites. Analyses of power production time series indicate annual energy production is almost twice as high for the two offshore locations. Further, electrical power production quality is higher from the offshore sites that exhibit a lower amplitude of diurnal variability, plus a lower probability of wind speeds below the cut-in and of ramp events of any magnitude. Despite this and the higher resource, the estimated levelized cost of energy (LCoE) is higher from the offshore sites mainly due to the higher infrastructure costs. Nonetheless, the projected LCoE is highly competitive from all sites considered.

Foody, Rebecca↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uniform Mechanical Loading Can Test for Nonuniform Loading Durability

In this work, we present a method to evaluate the equivalency between any module mechanical loading conditions. The method is developed to address the specific failure mode of glass fracture and is based on Weibull analysis and weakest link theory. It considers the varying stress profile across the module to calculate the probability of glass fracture, which is used as the metric of equivalency. An idealized nonuniform loading scheme is employed to demonstrate the method and introduce the concept of the equivalent uniform load factor: a factor applied to the maximum pressure of the nonuniform load to obtain the equivalent uniform load value. It is demonstrated that this factor is less than unity for all nonuniform load cases considered, including snow and various characters of wind loading. These significant results suggest that uniform loading may be reliably, and practically, employed to evaluate photovoltaic module glass for nonuniform loading durability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1995

Design Protocols and Analytical Strategies that Incorporate Structural Reliability Models

The general goal of this project is to establish design protocols that enable the engineer to analyze and predict certain types of behavior in ceramic composites. Sections of the final report addresses the following: Description of the Problem that Motivated the Technology Development, Description of the New Technology that was Developed, Unique and Novel Features of the Technology and Results/Benefits of Application (year by year accomplishments), and Utilization of New Technology in Non-Aerospace Applications. Activities for this reporting period included the development of a design analysis as part of a cooperative agreement with general Electric Aircraft Engines. The effort focused on modifying the Toughened Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (TCARES) algorithm for use in the design of engine components fabricated from NiAl. Other activities related to the development of an ASTM standard practice for estimating Weibull parameters. The standard focuses on the evaluation and reporting of uniaxial strength data, and the estimation of probability distribution parameters for ceramics which fail in a brittle fashion.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An application of synthetic seismicity in earthquake statistics - The Middle America Trench

The way in which seismicity calculations which are based on the concept of fault segmentation incorporate the physics of faulting through static dislocation theory can improve earthquake recurrence statistics and hone the probabilities of hazard is shown. For the Middle America Trench, the spread parameters of the best-fitting lognormal or Weibull distributions (about 0.75) are much larger than the 0.21 intrinsic spread proposed in the Nishenko Buland (1987) hypothesis. Stress interaction between fault segments disrupts time or slip predictability and causes earthquake recurrence to be far more aperiodic than has been suggested.

Ward, Steven N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Statistical study of thermal fracture of ceramic materials in the water quench test

The Weibull statistical theory of fracture was applied to thermal shock of ceramics in the water quench test. Transient thermal stresses and probability of failure were calculated for a cylindrical specimen cooled by convection. The convective heat transfer coefficient was calibrated using the time to failure which was measured with an acoustic emission technique. Theoretical failure probability distributions as a function of time and quench temperature compare favorably with experimental results for three high-alumina ceramics and a glass.

Rogers, Wayne P.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Minimizing Timing Jitter’s Impact on Ground-Penetrating Radar Array Coupling Signals

This article presents a novel investigation into the effect of receiver timing jitter on the quality of imaging of ground-penetrating radar systems. We explicitly show the impact of timing jitter throughout an entire example processing pipeline. The process of coupling removal in systems whose receivers have a random Gaussian-distributed jitter with a high standard deviation leaves randomly distributed residue in the radar image. This residue, called jitter-induced coupling noise, extends even into the expected target domain which may cause false alarms. This residue approximately follows a sum of Gaussian and Gamma distributions based on the higher order derivatives of the coupling signal. Once migrated to create an image, the coupling residue is best described by a Weibull distribution. We show that simple filtering does not remove enough residue and propose two preventative design specifications called the linear slope and migrated probability specifications. Antenna and system designers should use these specifications to assess the true severity of coupling signals in a given jitter environment.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1999

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Gas Turbine Disk Life and Reliability

Two series of low cycle fatigue (LCF) test data for two groups of different aircraft gas turbine engine compressor disk geometries were reanalyzed and compared using Weibull statistics. Both groups of disks were manufactured from titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy. A NASA Glenn Research Center developed probabilistic computer code Probable Cause was used to predict disk life and reliability. A material-life factor A was determined for titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy based upon fatigue disk data and successfully applied to predict the life of the disks as a function of speed. A comparison was made with the currently used life prediction method based upon crack growth rate. Applying an endurance limit to the computer code did not significantly affect the predicted lives under engine operating conditions. Failure location prediction correlates with those experimentally observed in the LCF tests. A reasonable correlation was obtained between the predicted disk lives using the Probable Cause code and a modified crack growth method for life prediction. Both methods slightly overpredict life for one disk group and significantly under predict it for the other.

Melis, Matthew E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A probabilistic-phase field model for the fracture of brittle materials

Abstract We develop a computational method to determine the failure probability of brittle materials under general mechanical loading conditions. The method is a combination of two parts: (1) numerical simulations of materials with multiple cracks using phase field theory, where the complete fracture process is viewed as ‘damage percolation’ along critical paths or clusters of cracks, rather than the traditional weak-link failure mechanism of Weibull, and (2) an extension of the Batdorf statistical theory of fracture to finite domains, where it is implemented within the finite element framework. The results of phase-field simulations at the ‘percolation threshold’ are used as failure data in the Batdorf theory to determine the overall probability of failure. The input to this approach is the size distribution of cracks in a pristine material. An example is shown, where alumina samples that were previously tested by Abe and coworkers (Abeet al2003J. Am. Ceram. Soc.861019–21) in four-point loading are compared to the results of our numerical simulations. The approach developed here has the advantage of being extendable to more complex thermomechanical loading.

Materials Science↗

NASA NTRS1971

Simulation of flight maneuver-load distributions by utilizing stationary, non-Gaussian random load histories

Random numbers were generated with the aid of a digital computer and transformed such that the probability density function of a discrete random load history composed of these random numbers had one of the following non-Gaussian distributions: Poisson, binomial, log-normal, Weibull, and exponential. The resulting random load histories were analyzed to determine their peak statistics and were compared with cumulative peak maneuver-load distributions for fighter and transport aircraft in flight.

Leybold, H. A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

Wheeler, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Life and reliability modeling of bevel gear reductions

A reliability model is presented for bevel gear reductions with either a single input pinion or dual input pinions of equal size. The dual pinions may or may not have the same power applied for the analysis. The gears may be straddle mounted or supported in a bearing quill. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distribution. The reduction's basic dynamic capacity is defined as the output torque which may be applied for one million output rotations of the bevel gear with a 90 percent probability of reduction survival.

Savage, M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Life and reliability modeling of bevel gear reductions

Savage, M.↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Projection of Space Radiation Environments with a Solar Cycle Statistical Model

A solar cycle statistical model has been developed to project sunspot numbers which represent the variations in the space radiation environment. The resultant projection of sunspot numbers in near future were coupled to space-related quantities of interest in radiation protection, such as the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) deceleration potential (f) and the mean occurrence frequency of solar particle event (SPE). Future GCR fluxes have been derived from a predictive model, in which GCR temporal dependence represented by f was derived from GCR flux and ground-based Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last four decades. Results showed that the point dose equivalent inside a typical spacecraft in interplanetary radiation fields was influenced by solar modulation up to a factor of three. One important characteristic of sporadic SPEs is their mean frequency of occurrence, which is dependent on solar activity. Projections of future mean frequency of SPE occurrence were estimated from a power law function of sunspot number. Furthermore, the cumulative probabilities of SPE during short-period missions were defined with the continuous database of proton fluences of SPE. The analytic representation of energy spectra of SPE was constructed by the Weibull distribution for different event sizes. The representative exposure level at each event size was estimated for the guideline of protection systems for astronauts during future space exploration missions.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗

NASA NTRS2002

Comparative Fatigue Lives of Rubber and PVC Wiper Cylindrical Coatings

Three coating materials for rotating cylindrical-coated wiping rollers were fatigue tested in 2 Intaglio printing presses. The coatings were a hard, cross-linked, plasticized PVC thermoset (P-series); a plasticized PVC (A-series); and a hard, nitryl rubber (R-series). Both 2- and 3-parameter Weibull analyses as well as a cost-benefit analysis were performed. The mean value of life for the R-series coating is 24 and 9 times longer than the P- and A-series coatings, respectively. Both the cost and replacement rate for the R-series coating was significantly less than those for the P- and A-series coatings. At a very high probability of survival the R-series coating is approximately 2 and 6 times the lives of the P- and A-series, respectively, before the first failure occurs. Where all coatings are run to failure, using the mean (life) time between removal (MTBR) for each coating to calculate the number of replacements and costs provides qualitatively similar results to those using a Weibull analysis.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Effects of HF Treatments on Tensile Strength of Hi-Nicalon Fibers

Tensile strengths of as-received Hi-Nicalon fibers and those having a dual BN/SiC surface coating, deposited by chemical vapor deposition, have been measured at room temperature. These fibers were also treated with HF for 24 h followed by tensile strength measurements. Strengths of uncoated and BN/SiC coated Hi-Nicalon fibers extracted from celsian matrix composites, by dissolving away the matrix in HF for 24 h, were also determined. The average tensile strength of uncoated Hi-Nicalon was 3.19 +/- 0.73 GPa with a Weibull modulus of 5.41. The Hi-Nicalon/BN/SiC fibers showed an average strength of 3.04 q 0.53 GPa and Weibull modulus of 6.66. After HF treatments, the average strengths of the uncoated and BN/SiC coated Hi-Nicalon fibers were 2.69 +/- 0.67 GPa and 2.80 +/- 0.53 GPa and the Weibull moduli were 4.93 and 5.96, respectively. The BN/SiC coated fibers extracted from the celsian matrix composite exhibited a strength of 2.38 +/- 0.40 GPa and a Weibull modulus of 7.15. The strength of the uncoated Hi-Nicalon fibers in the composite was so severely degraded that they disintegrated into small fragments during extraction with HF. The uncoated fibers probably undergo mechanical surface damage during hot pressing of the composites. Also, the BN layer on the coated fibers acts as a compliant layer which protects the fibers from mechanical damage during composite processing. The elemental composition and thickness of the fiber coatings were deten-nined using scanning Auger analysis. Microstructural analyses of the fibers and the coatings were done by scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. Strengths of fibers calculated using average and measured fiber diameters were in good agreement. Thus, the strength of fibers can be evaluated using an average fiber diameter instead of the measured diameter of each filament.

Bansal, Narottam P.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Determination of Rolling-Element Fatigue Life From Computer Generated Bearing Tests

Two types of rolling-element bearings representing radial loaded and thrust loaded bearings were used for this study. Three hundred forty (340) virtual bearing sets totaling 31400 bearings were randomly assembled and tested by Monte Carlo (random) number generation. The Monte Carlo results were compared with endurance data from 51 bearing sets comprising 5321 bearings. A simple algebraic relation was established for the upper and lower L(sub 10) life limits as function of number of bearings failed for any bearing geometry. There is a fifty percent (50 percent) probability that the resultant bearing life will be less than that calculated. The maximum and minimum variation between the bearing resultant life and the calculated life correlate with the 90-percent confidence limits for a Weibull slope of 1.5. The calculated lives for bearings using a load-life exponent p of 4 for ball bearings and 5 for roller bearings correlated with the Monte Carlo generated bearing lives and the bearing data. STLE life factors for bearing steel and processing provide a reasonable accounting for differences between bearing life data and calculated life. Variations in Weibull slope from the Monte Carlo testing and bearing data correlated. There was excellent agreement between percent of individual components failed from Monte Carlo simulation and that predicted.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Bayesian estimation of life parameters in the Weibull distribution.

Development of a Bayesian analysis of the scale and shape parameters in the Weibull distribution and the corresponding reliability function with respect to the usual life-testing procedures. For the scale parameter theta, Bayesian estimates of theta and reliability are obtained for the uniform, exponential, and inverted gamma prior probability densities. Bhattacharya's results (1967) for the one-parameter exponential life-testing distribution are reduced to a special case of these results. A fully Bayesian analysis of both the scale and shape parameters is developed by assuming independent prior distributions; since in the latter case, analytical tractability is not possible, Bayesian estimates are obtained through a conjunction of Monte Carlo simulation and numerical-integration techniques. In both cases, a computer simulation is carried out, and a comparison is made between the Bayesian and the corresponding minimum-variance unbiased, or maximum likelihood, estimates. As expected, the Bayesian estimates are superior.

Canavos, G. C.↗