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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Uncertainty in Simulated ENSO Statistics

Abstract Large ensembles of model simulations are frequently used to reduce the impact of internal variability when evaluating climate models and assessing climate change induced trends. However, the optimal number of ensemble members required to distinguish model biases and climate change signals from internal variability varies across models and metrics. Here we analyze the mean, variance and skewness of precipitation and sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific region often used to describe the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), obtained from large ensembles of Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate simulations. Leveraging established statistical theory, we develop and assess equations to estimate, a priori, the ensemble size or simulation length required to limit sampling‐based uncertainties in ENSO statistics to within a desired tolerance. Our results confirm that the uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series length and/or ensemble size. Moreover, we demonstrate that uncertainties of these statistics are generally comparable when computed using either pre‐industrial control or historical runs. This suggests that pre‐industrial runs can sometimes be used to estimate the expected uncertainty of statistics computed from an existing historical member or ensemble, and the number of simulation years (run duration and/or ensemble size) required to adequately characterize the statistic. This advance allows us to use existing simulations (e.g., control runs that are performed during model development) to design ensembles that can sufficiently limit diagnostic uncertainties arising from simulated internal variability. These results may well be applicable to variables and regions beyond ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Regional CO2 Observing System Simulation Experiment Using ASCENDS Observations and WRF-STILT Footprints

Knowledge of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 is hampered by sparse measurements. The recent advent of satellite measurements of CO2 concentrations is increasing the density of measurements, and the future mission ASCENDS (Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons) will provide even greater coverage and precision. Lagrangian atmospheric transport models run backward in time can quantify surface influences ("footprints") of diverse measurement platforms and are particularly well suited for inverse estimation of regional surface CO2 fluxes at high resolution based on satellite observations. We utilize the STILT Lagrangian particle dispersion model, driven by WRF meteorological fields at 40-km resolution, in a Bayesian synthesis inversion approach to quantify the ability of ASCENDS column CO2 observations to constrain fluxes at high resolution. This study focuses on land-based biospheric fluxes, whose uncertainties are especially large, in a domain encompassing North America. We present results based on realistic input fields for 2007. Pseudo-observation random errors are estimated from backscatter and optical depth measured by the CALIPSO satellite. We estimate a priori flux uncertainties based on output from the CASA-GFED (v.3) biosphere model and make simple assumptions about spatial and temporal error correlations. WRF-STILT footprints are convolved with candidate vertical weighting functions for ASCENDS. We find that at a horizontal flux resolution of 1 degree x 1 degree, ASCENDS observations are potentially able to reduce average weekly flux uncertainties by 0-8% in July, and 0-0.5% in January (assuming an error of 0.5 ppm at the Railroad Valley reference site). Aggregated to coarser resolutions, e.g. 5 degrees x 5 degrees, the uncertainty reductions are larger and more similar to those estimated in previous satellite data observing system simulation experiments.

Wang, James S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Automated Detection of Oscillating Regions in the Solar Atmosphere

Recently observed oscillations in the solar atmosphere have been interpreted and modeled as magnetohydrodynamic wave modes. This has allowed for the estimation of parameters that are otherwise hard to derive, such as the coronal magnetic-field strength. This work crucially relies on the initial detection of the oscillations, which is commonly done manually. The volume of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) data will make manual detection inefficient for detecting all of the oscillating regions. An algorithm is presented that automates the detection of areas of the solar atmosphere that support spatially extended oscillations. The algorithm identifies areas in the solar atmosphere whose oscillation content is described by a single, dominant oscillation within a user-defined frequency range. The method is based on Bayesian spectral analysis of time series and image filtering. A Bayesian approach sidesteps the need for an a-priori noise estimate to calculate rejection criteria for the observed signal, and it also provides estimates of oscillation frequency, amplitude, and noise, and the error in all of these quantities, in a self-consistent way. The algorithm also introduces the notion of quality measures to those regions for which a positive detection is claimed, allowing for simple post-detection discrimination by the user. The algorithm is demonstrated on two Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) datasets, and comments regarding its suitability for oscillation detection in SDO are made.

Ireland, J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

An extended Kalman filter for spinning spacecraft attitude estimation

An extended Kalman filter for real-time ground attitude estimation of a gyro-less spinning spacecraft was developed and tested. The filter state vector includes the angular momentum direction, phase angle, inertial nutation angle, and inertial and body nutation rates. The filter solves for the nutating three-axis attitude and accounts for effects due to principle axes offset from the body axes. The attitude is propagated using the kinematics of a rigid body symmetric about the principle spin axis; disturbance torques are assumed to be small. Filter updates consist only of the measured angles between celestial objects (Sun, Earth, etc.) and the nominal spin axis, and the times these angles were measured. Both simulated data and real data from the Dynamics Explorer -A (DE-A) spacecraft were used to test the filter; the results are presented. Convergence was achieved rapidly from a wide range of a priori state estimates, and sub-degree accuracy was attained. Systematic errors affecting the solution accuracy are discussed, as are the results of an attempt to solve for sensor measurement angle biases in the state vector.

Baker, David F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Groundspeed filtering for CTAS

Ground speed is one of the radar observables which is obtained along with position and heading from NASA Ames Center radar. Within the Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS), groundspeed is converted into airspeed using the wind speeds which CTAS obtains from the NOAA weather grid. This airspeed is then used in the trajectory synthesis logic which computes the trajectory for each individual aircraft. The time history of the typical radar groundspeed data is generally quite noisy, with high frequency variations on the order of five knots, and occasional 'outliers' which can be significantly different from the probable true speed. To try to smooth out these speeds and make the ETA estimate less erratic, filtering of the ground speed is done within CTAS. In its base form, the CTAS filter is a 'moving average' filter which averages the last ten radar values. In addition, there is separate logic to detect and correct for 'outliers', and acceleration logic which limits the groundspeed change in adjacent time samples. As will be shown, these additional modifications do cause significant changes in the actual groundspeed filter output. The conclusion is that the current ground speed filter logic is unable to track accurately the speed variations observed on many aircraft. The Kalman filter logic however, appears to be an improvement to the current algorithm used to smooth ground speed variations, while being simpler and more efficient to implement. Additional logic which can test for true 'outliers' can easily be added by looking at the difference in the a priori and post priori Kalman estimates, and not updating if the difference in these quantities is too large.

Slater, Gary L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Description and Sensitivity Analysis of the SOLSE/LORE-2 and SAGE III Limb Scattering Ozone Retrieval Algorithms

The SOLSE (Shuttle Ozone Limb Sounding Experiment) and LORE (Limb Ozone Retrieval Experiment) instruments are scheduled for reflight on Space Shuttle flight STS-107 in July 2002. In addition, the SAGE III (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) instrument will begin to make limb scattering measurements during Spring 2002. The optimal estimation technique is used to analyze visible and ultraviolet limb scattered radiances and produce a retrieved ozone profile. The algorithm used to analyze data from the initial flight of the SOLSE/LORE instruments (on Space Shuttle flight STS-87 in November 1997) forms the basis of the current algorithms, with expansion to take advantage of the increased multispectral information provided by SOLSE/LORE-2 and SAGE III. We also present detailed sensitivity analysis for these ozone retrieval algorithms. The primary source of ozone retrieval error is tangent height misregistration (i.e., instrument pointing error), which is relevant throughout the altitude range of interest, and can produce retrieval errors on the order of 10-20 percent due to a tangent height registration error of 0.5 km at the tangent point. Other significant sources of error are sensitivity to stratospheric aerosol and sensitivity to error in the a priori ozone estimate (given assumed instrument signal-to-noise = 200). These can produce errors up to 10 percent for the ozone retrieval at altitudes less than 20 km, but produce little error above that level.

Loughman, R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-preserving enriched Galerkin method for a fully-coupled thermo-poroelasticity model

This paper proposes a new numerical method for a fully-coupled, quasi-static thermo-poroelasticity model in a unified enriched Galerkin (EG) method framework. In our method, the mechanics sub-problem is solved using a locking-free EG method, and the flow and heat sub-problems are solved using a locally-conservative EG method. The proposed method offers mass and energy conservation properties with much lower costs than other methods with the same properties, including discontinuous Galerkin methods and mixed finite element methods. The well-posedness and optimal a priori error estimates are carefully derived. Here, several numerical tests confirm the theoretical optimal convergence rates and the mass and energy conservation properties of the new method.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

McCormick envelopes in mixed-integer PDE-constrained optimization

McCormick envelopes are a standard tool for deriving convex relaxations of optimization problems that involve polynomial terms. Such McCormick relaxations provide lower bounds, for example, in branch-and-bound procedures for mixed-integer nonlinear programs but have not gained much attention in PDE-constrained optimization so far. This lack of attention may be due to the distributed nature of such problems, which on the one hand leads to infinitely many linear constraints (generally state constraints that may be difficult to handle) in addition to the state equation for a pointwise formulation of the McCormick envelopes and renders bound-tightening procedures that successively improve the resulting convex relaxations computationally intractable. We analyze McCormick envelopes for a model problem class that is governed by a semilinear PDE involving a bilinearity and integrality constraints. We approximate the nonlinearity and in turn the McCormick envelopes by averaging the involved terms over the cells of a partition of the computational domain on which the PDE is defined. This yields convex relaxations that underestimate the original problem up to an a priori error estimate that depends on the mesh size of the discretization. These approximate McCormick relaxations can be improved by means of an optimization-based bound-tightening procedure. We show that their minimizers converge to minimizers to a limit problem with a pointwise formulation of the McCormick envelopes when driving the mesh size to zero. We provide a computational example, for which we certify all of our imposed assumptions. The results point to both the potential of the methodology and the gaps in the research that need to be closed. Our methodology provides a framework first for obtaining pointwise underestimators for nonconvexities and second for approximating them with finitely many linear inequalities in an infinite-dimensional setting.

Approximations and Expansions↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-periodic steady-state solution of fluid-structure interaction and cardiac flow problems through multigrid-reduction-in-time

In this study, a time-periodic MGRIT algorithm is proposed as a means to reduce the time-to-solution of numerical algorithms by exploiting the time periodicity inherent to many applications in science and engineering. The time-periodic MGRIT algorithm is applied to a variety of linear and nonlinear single- and multiphysics problems that are periodic-in-time. It is demonstrated that the proposed parallel-in-time algorithm can obtain the same time-periodic steady-state solution as sequential time-stepping. It is shown that the required number of MGRIT iterations can be estimated a priori and that the new MGRIT variant can significantly and consistently reduce the time-to-solution compared to sequential time-stepping, irrespective of the number of dimensions, linear or nonlinear PDE models, single-physics or coupled problems and the employed computing resources. The numerical experiments demonstrate that the time-periodic MGRIT algorithm enables a greater level of parallelism yielding faster turnaround, and thus, facilitating more complex and more realistic problems to be solved.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Laser diagnostics to characterize the in-flame growth of platinum nanoparticles manufactured by the reactive spray deposition technology

Reactive Spray Deposition Technology (RSDT) is an atmospheric pressure, flame-based advanced manufacturing method used to fabricate Membrane Electrode Assemblies (MEAs) for proton exchange fuel cells and water electrolyzers. RSDT combines the flame synthesis of catalyst nanoparticles and their deposition onto the membrane in one step. The properties of the synthesized nanoparticles, such as their Size Distribution Function (SDF), determine the manufactured electrodes’ performance, which can be evaluated when the deposition is complete via ex-situ characterization of the products. Efforts to improve RSDT for manufacturing state-of-the-art MEAs can be significantly enhanced with integrated laser diagnostics that enable in situ measurement of the synthesized catalyst nanoparticles. This paper reports the implementation of laser diagnostics in an RSDT facility and evaluates their potential to assist the manufacturing process. Laser Light Scattering (LS) and Laser-Induced Incandescence (LII) measurements are performed in the oxygen-rich zone of the flame at various distances from the flame fuel jet nozzle downstream of its luminous region. The measurements quantitatively track the evolution in size and volume fraction of platinum-based nanoparticles in two flames that yield different catalytic properties in the manufactured electrodes. The profiles of the measured nanoparticles’ volume fraction along the flame axis can be estimated a priori so that the average nanoparticle sizes can be measured in quasi-real time via LS. Nanoparticles experience an extremely slow growth rate while being convected at distances from 150 nm to 300 nm from the fuel nozzle. Complementary characterizations of the synthesized nanoparticles are performed ex-situ via High-Angle Annular Darkfield Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (HAADF-STEM) image analyses of samples collected on grids at a fixed distance from the fuel jet nozzle. Comparing the results from laser and microscopy techniques not only cross-validates the findings but also provides the parameters to infer the bimodal SDF in-situ and yields evidence that the coagulation efficiency of the synthesized nanoparticles has extremely low values in the investigated zone of the flames.

Rayleigh Light Scattering (LS)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights From Dayflow: A Historical Streamflow Reanalysis Dataset for the Conterminous United States

Abstract Reconstructed historical streamflow time series can supplement limited streamflow gauge observations. However, there are common challenges of typical modeling approaches: process‐based hydrologic models can be data/computation‐intensive, and statistics‐based models can be region/stream‐specific. Here we present a nationally scalable modeling framework integrating the simulated runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model leveraging high‐performance computing. We demonstrate an efficient method of assimilating streamflow at US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow monitoring sites using a simple hierarchical approach in the VIC‐RAPID framework. The result is a reconstructed 36‐year (1980–2015) daily and monthly streamflow dataset (Dayflow) at ∼2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches in the conterminous US (CONUS). We perform a comprehensive evaluation at 7,526 USGS sites and characterize their error statistics. The results demonstrate that 49% of the USGS sites demonstrate Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) > 0.5 and 58% of the sites show percentage bias within ±20% for the daily naturalized streamflow. Streamflow data assimilation across CONUS shows an overall improvement over naturalized streamflow, notably in the western semiarid‐to‐arid regions. Comparison to other national and global streamflow reanalysis datasets such as the National Water Model and Global Reach‐scale A priori Discharge Estimates for SWOT demonstrates improved KGE, reduced bias, and directions for Dayflow improvements. Investigations of error statistics with key hydrologic, hydroclimatic, and geomorphologic basin characteristics reveal region‐specific patterns which may help improve future framework applications. Overall, Dayflow may enable a better understanding of hydrologic conditions in a changing environment, especially in locations currently not represented by streamflow monitoring networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A new large-scale suspended sediment model and its application over the United States

Abstract. Suspended sediment plays a vital role in the regional and global cycling of carbon and nutrients by carrying carbon and nutrients from headwaters into lowland rivers and the oceans. Sediment transport through river systems is often fundamentally modified by human activities such as reservoir management. However, a physically based representation of sediment transport is still missing in most existing Earth system models (ESMs), which are essential tools for modeling and predicting Earth system changes. Here, we introduce a multi-process river sediment module for ESMs, which includes (1) hillslope soil erosion and sediment discharge into streams, (2) sediment transport processes through river networks, (3) reservoir operation based on the inflows from upstream areas and water demand from downstream areas, and (4) sediment trapping by reservoirs. All model parameters are estimated a priori without calibration. We apply this new sediment modeling framework to the contiguous United States and validate it against historical observations of monthly streamflow and sediment discharges at 35 river gauges. The model reasonably well captures the long-term balance and seasonal variations of suspended sediment in large river systems. Furthermore, our model results show that suspended sediment discharge in managed rivers is affected more by reservoirs' direct trapping of sediment particles than by their flow regulation. This new sediment module enables future modeling of the transportation and transformation of carbon and nutrients carried by the fine sediment along the river–ocean continuum to close the global carbon and nutrient cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Feasibility of developing LSI microcircuit reliability prediction models

In the proposed modeling approach, when any of the essential key factors are not known initially, they can be approximated in various ways with a known impact on the accuracy of the final predictions. For example, on any program where reliability predictions are started at interim states of project completion, a-priori approximate estimates of the key factors are established for making preliminary predictions. Later these are refined for greater accuracy as subsequent program information of a more definitive nature becomes available. Specific steps to develop, validate and verify these new models are described.

Ryerson, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Helicopter derivative identification from analytic models and flight test data

Recent results of stability derivative identification from helicopter analytic models and flight test data are presented. Six and nine degree-of-freedom (DOF) linear models are identified from an analytic nonlinear helicopter simulation using a least square technique. The identified models are compared with the convectional partial differentiation method for obtaining derivatives to form the basis for interpretation of derivatives identified from flight data. Six degree-of-freedom models are identified from CH-53A and CH-54B flight data, using an extended Kalman filter modified to process several maneuvers simultaneously. The a priori derivative estimate is obtained by optimal filtering of the data and then using a least square method. The results demonstrate that a six DOF identified model is sufficient to determine the low frequency modes of motion, but a nine DOF rotor/body model is necessary for proper representation of short-term response.

Molusis, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Contribution of Apollo lunar photography to the establishment of selenodetic control

Among the various types of available data relevant to the establishment of geometric control on the moon, the only one covering significant portions of the lunar surface (20%) with sufficient information content, is lunar photography, taken at the proximity of the moon from lunar orbiters. The idea of free geodetic networks is introduced as a tool for the statistical comparison of the geometric aspects of the various data used. Methods were developed for the updating of the statistics of observations and the a priori parameter estimates to obtain statistically consistent solutions by means of the optimum relative weighting concept.

Dermanis, A.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Navigating the Viking landers

On July 20, 1976, Viking Lander 1 became the first unmanned spacecraft to land and operate successfully on the planet Mars. This was followed by a second successful landing on September 3, 1976. This paper gives a detailed description of the autonomous on-board navigation process to perform the guidance, control, and entry navigation functions. Also, the functions performed on the ground to generate and validate the guidance commands sent to the spacecraft prior to descent are described. In-flight measures of navigation system performance are compared against a-priori error estimates to show that the descents were completely nominal in all respects. The final landing errors were 25 km and 10 km for Missions 1 and 2, respectively.

Euler, E. A.↗