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DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Dynamic Hierarchical Attention Framework for Multimodal Malware Detection

The increasing use of Android in the worldwide mobile ecosystem has come along with a significant increase in advanced malware, highlighting the critical necessity for efficient, scalable, and adaptable detection systems. Despite recent advancements in machine learning improving malware detection, the majority of current solutions are limited to one, two, or three data modalities, hence neglecting the comprehensive behavioral spectrum of contemporary multi-vector threats. This thesis presents the first comprehensive multimodal framework for Android malware detection, which combines textual, time-series (temporal), graph-based (structural), and visual information using an innovative hierarchical attention mechanism and Dynamic Fusion Controller (DFC). Our methodology consistently classifies and processes modalities as either sequential or structural, facilitating content-adaptive weighting and resilient cross-modal representation learning. We advance the implementation of cutting-edge time series techniques, such as MiniRocket, for malware detection, hence creating new opportunities for temporal analysis in cybersecurity. Comprehensive experimental assessment shows that our framework performs exceptionally well, with 99.46% classification accuracy and 97.15% detection accuracy, significantly outperforming existing approaches through effective multimodal integration and hierarchical attention mechanisms.

Nazmin, Tamanna↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tuning Molecular Interactions between Peptoids and Substrates to Achieve Surface-Agnostic Coating

Achieving programmable and robust coatings that maintain functionality while adhering to various surface types with molecular-level tunability and programmable features remains challenging. In this study, we develop adaptable and stable surface-agnostic coatings (SACs) based on crystalline peptoid membranes by tuning interpeptoid and peptoid-substrate interactions. We utilize two complementary methods: (1) surfaceinduced assembly, where peptoid membranes form directly on substrates, and (2) depositing preformed peptoid crystalline membranes via an aqueous layer-by-layer (LbL) assembly technique. These strategies are applied to substrates with diverse surface chemistries and topographies, including mica, highly ordered pyrolytic graphite (HOPG), MoS 2 , sapphire, and porous membranes like porous alumina and polysulfide. Atomic force microscopy confirms the formation of peptoid coatings and reveals differences in assembly behavior across surfaces. Moisture vapor transport measurements serve as a proof-of-concept test for membrane continuity and tunable permeance. Together, these findings demonstrate the adaptability and programmability of peptoid-based SACs, enabling rational coating design on surfaces with diverse chemical and topographical features. Furthermore, this work opens pathways for using peptoid membranes as programmable surface modifiers in functional interfaces, protective coatings, and membrane platforms.

biomimetic polymers↗

DOE OSTI2026

Design, characterization and shape recovery behavior of 3D/4D printed shape memory polymers (SMPs)

Shape memory polymers (SMPs) represent a paradigm shift in material science, uniquely capable of undergoing reversible shape transformations triggered by external stimuli, positioning them as pivotal in developing next-generation biomedical devices, aerospace components, and adaptive structures. Extensive research has been done on SMPs with a major focus on high-temperature programming methods, which can limit energy efficiency and applicability with temperature-sensitive materials. Additionally, while various SMP blends have demonstrated great potential, limited work has been done on the suitability for 3D printing these materials, particularly under high-strain and ambient temperature programming conditions. In this study, a three-component optimized SMP composition was evaluated by 3D printing via the Material Extrusion (MEX) technique and investigating its ambient temperature-programming behavior at high strains. The SMP formulation studied was a tailored blend of thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU), polycaprolactone (PCL), and an octadecane diol-based copolymer (OBC) that exhibits robust shape memory behavior, high strain tolerance, and efficient force generation. Rigorous thermal, mechanical, and shape recovery analyses, along with optimized printing parameters and consistent shape recovery rates of up to 90%, were achieved under dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), even under ambient programming conditions. This work demonstrates the SMP composition’s potential for adaptive, self-deployable systems with 4D printing characteristics ideal for bio-inspired structures and artificial muscle fibers.

Sudan, Kavish [University of Louisville, KY]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Disentangling interlayer confinement and pore surface adsorption in functionalized smectites for tunable ethylene gas capture

Smectite-based adsorbents are increasingly being studied as sustainable packaging materials for scavenging ethylene, a plant hormone that accelerates fruit ripening. However, the mechanisms governing their uptake and retention remain poorly understood. Here, to tackle this question we systematically investigate ethylene gas-solid interactions in pristine, acid-activated, and choline-functionalized montmorillonites using a complementary combination of structural, gravimetric, and spectroscopic techniques, including inelastic neutron scattering. We experimentally distinguish ethylene populations associated with interlayer confinement, mesopore, and external surface adsorption. We show that chemical functionalization distinctly controls adsorption pathways: acid activation enhances total uptake by generating mesoporous adsorption sites and promoting partial interlayer intercalation, yielding capacities comparable to those of leading smectite-based adsorbents, while choline functionalization promotes preferential confinement and stabilization of guest molecules within the interlayer galleries. Advanced spectroscopic analysis provides molecular-level insight into confinement environments and interaction strengths. We also establish clear structure-property relationships by correlating uptake values derived from independent techniques, linking chemical modification, accessible adsorption domains, and retention behavior. These findings provide general design principles for tuning gas-solid interactions in functionalized layered silicates and highlight their potential as adaptable platforms for sustainable ethylene gas capture and selective adsorption technologies.

Ethylene adsorption mechanism↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the impact of hydro-mechanical coupling on compaction localization

In deep subsurface environments, where porous rocks are saturated with fluids, hydromechanical coupling plays a critical role in the formation and propagation of localized deformation zones, such as compaction bands. In this study, we numerically investigate the influence of fluid-rock interactions on the development of compaction localization in fluid-saturated rocks. For this purpose, it uses a numerical framework that adapts the heat equation to model the diffusion of pore pressure caused by deformation. This is achieved with specialized subroutines for material behavior and heat transfer formulated within the ABAQUS platform and by allowing changes in rock permeability during strain localization. The results highlight that hydromechanical coupling significantly alters the compaction behavior compared to dry conditions. Under high confining stress, excess pore pressure inhibits the progression of compaction fronts, while in time-dependent processes like rock creep, pore pressure transients accelerate deformation by creating feedback loops between mechanical forces and fluid flow. These findings underscore the importance of saturation in controlling the dynamics of compaction localization and provide insights into the interplay between pore pressure, deformation, and permeability. The implications of this study extend to applications in geological storage, resource extraction, and subsurface geomechanics, offering a deeper understanding of coupled hydromechanical processes in porous rocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Molecular View of Methane Activation on Ni(111) through Enhanced Sampling and Machine Learning

A combination of machine learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) and enhanced sampling simulations is used to investigate the activation of methane on a Ni(111) surface. The work entails the development and iterative refinement of MLIPs, initially trained on a dataset constructed via ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations, supplemented by adaptive biasing forces, to enrich the sampling of catalytically relevant configurations. Our results reveal that by incorporating collective variables that capture the behavior of the reactant molecule, as well as additional frames that describe the dynamic response of the catalytic surface, it is possible to enhance considerably the accuracy of predicted energies and forces. By employing enhanced sampling schemes in the refinement of the MLIP, we systematically explore the potential energy surface, leading to a refined MLIP capable of predicting DFT-level energies and forces and replicating key geometric characteristics of the catalytic system. The resulting free energy landscapes at several temperatures provide a detailed view of the thermodynamics and dynamics of methane activation. Specifically, as methane approaches and dissociates on the catalytic surface, the process involves the dynamic interplay of CH 4 and the Ni catalyst that includes both enthalpic and entropic contributions. The progression towards the transition state involves an CH 4 moiety that is increasingly restrained in its ability to rotate or translate, while the stage following the transition state is characterized by a notable rise of the Ni atom that interacts with the cleaved C–H bond. Furthermore, this leads to an increase in the mobility of the adsorbed species, a feature that becomes more pronounced at higher temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Discerning molecular-level CO 2 adsorption behavior in amine-modified sorbents within a controlled CO 2 /H 2 O environment towards direct air capture

Sorbents designed for direct air capture (DAC) play a crucial role in the pursuit of achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. This study elucidates CO 2 adsorption from dilute, humidified CO 2 streams onto an amine-modified benchmark DAC adsorbent via solid-state NMR spectroscopy. Various NMR techniques, including 1D 1 H MAS, 13 C MAS, 2D 1 H– 13 C HETCOR NMR, and 1 H R 2 and R 1ρ relaxometry reveal the impact of CO 2 partial pressure and H 2 O on CO 2 adsorption behavior. Here we find that CO 2 concentration governs the stepwise formation of ammonium carbamate, carbamic acid, and physisorbed CO 2 , where relative humidity (RH) at a desired low (<400 ppm) CO 2 loading affects total CO 2 uptake. The relaxation studies reveal the cooperative or competitive nature of H 2 O–CO 2 sorption in CO 2 -dilute humid gas, and in particular polymer swelling upon humidification. From those results, we demonstrate that the observed absorption capacity enhancement by humidity is caused by pore opening due to sorbent swelling, and not by bicarbonate formation. This NMR-discerned speciation provides insights into sorption behavior at different RHs in dilute CO 2 gas streams, simulating real-world atmospheric conditions, and governs the design of efficient and adaptable material-process combinations for solid sorbent DAC.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Infrasonic Signatures of Earth-Grazing Fireballs as Analogues to Hypersonic Vehicles (Final Report)

Accurate detection, discrimination, and characterization of high-altitude hypersonic events using infrasonic monitoring are critical to planetary defense and global strategic surveillance. This report synthesizes recent advances achieved through rigorous analysis of infrasonic signatures from natural meteoroids, emphasizing shallow entry-angle meteoroids as essentially proxies for artificial hypersonic systems. Meteoroids naturally encompass diverse velocities, trajectories, altitudes, and fragmentation behaviors, enabling systematic validation of empirical period–yield relationships, waveform morphology classifiers, and trajectory-induced back-azimuth deviation models. Integration of adaptive array-processing enhancements within Cardinal software further extends infrasonic detection sensitivity and signal classification reliability. Collectively these advances, based solely on infrasonic signatures or limited optical data, offer robust methodologies for distinguishing natural from artificial hypersonic sources, significantly reducing event geolocation uncertainties and refining source-function determination. The outcomes detailed herein lay foundational groundwork for improved global hypersonic event-surveillance frameworks, supporting improved security preparedness and informing strategic monitoring and defense policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian chain graph models to characterize microbe-environment dynamics

Microbiome data require statistical models that can simultaneously decode microbes' reaction to the environment and interactions among microbes. While a multiresponse linear regression model seems like a straight-forward solution, we argue that treating it as a graphical model is problematic given that the regression coefficient matrix does not encode the conditional dependence structure between response and predictor nodes. This observation is especially important in biological settings when we have prior knowledge on the edges from specific experimental interventions that can only be properly encoded under a conditional dependence model. Here, we propose a chain graph model with two sets of nodes (predictors and responses) whose solution yields a graph with edges that indeed represent conditional dependence, thus agreeing with the experimenter's intuition on the average behavior of nodes under treatment. The solution to our model is sparse via the Bayesian linear regression (LASSO). In addition, we propose an adaptive extension so that different shrinkages can be applied to different edges to incorporate edge-specific prior knowledge. Our model is computationally inexpensive through an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm and can account for binary, counting, and compositional responses via an appropriate hierarchical structure. We test the performance of our model in a variety of simulated datasets, thereby showing superior performance to state-of-the-art approaches. We further apply our model to human gut and soil microbial compositional datasets, and we highlight that CG-LASSO can estimate biologically meaningful network structures in the data.

compositional data↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chemo‐Mechanical Coupling in Hydrogels: Dynamics in the Diffusion‐Limited Regime

Hydrogels are characterized by substantial volume changes in response to external stimuli, making them promising candidates for developing smart materials with enhanced adaptability and responsiveness. By integrating chemical reactions, hydrogels acquire dynamic and tunable responsiveness to external stimuli through chemo‐mechanical coupling, expanding their potential in emerging applications. However, capturing their transient behavior remains challenging due to the complex interplay of chemical reactions, solvent transport, and polymer network deformation. Classical theories capture equilibrium swelling but fail to describe time‐dependent phenomena. To address this, a time‐dependent continuum model is developed that explicitly couples these processes. Volume phase transition in hydrogels with homogeneous chemical reactions is investigated, then the effects of reaction kinetics on these transitions are analyzed. The coupling of these mechanisms is further explored through a study of transient mechanical instabilities. To illustrate the impact of distinct reaction and diffusion timescales, a photo‐active gripper is studied for robotic applications. Finally, a photo‐active microswimmer that exhibits non‐reciprocal motion is proposed to highlight the solvent diffusion for locomotion at the micro‐ and nano‐ scales. The work establishes that transient dynamics of chemo‐mechanical hydrogels generate functions not accessible by steady state models and provides a predictive platform for designing adaptive materials in emerging applications.

chemo-mechanical coupling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Structural Response of Amphiphilic Monolayers to Environmental Stimuli

Amphiphilic monolayers composed of end groups with distinct polar and nonpolar functional groups offer rapid and reversible interfacial adaptation in response to environmental stimuli such as a change in interfacial medium polarity. We have synthesized and characterized a suite of monolayers with functional groups of competing polarity designed to reconfigure their interfacial chemical composition in response to solvent polarity. In these films, the end group is designed to be able to reorient and expose the functional groups that minimize the interfacial free energy between the film and the environment. Using a combination of spectroscopic, computational, and wettability studies, we have investigated the responsive interfacial behavior of different end groups upon exposure to environments with varying polarities. Contact angle measurements across a series of polar and dispersive probe liquids reveal trends that reflect the underlying molecular flexibility and composition. Vibrational sum frequency generation (SFG) spectroscopy and atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations confirm solvent-driven reorientation of the end groups, with restructuring observed at the interface. To quantify these effects, we have developed a surface energy calculation model that incorporates solvent-induced surface rearrangements into the estimations. Our findings reveal a strong dependence of surface energy and switching behavior on the length and flexibility of the functionalities in the end group, which affects the exposure of certain interfacial compositions under different solvents. These results offer new insights into the design of adaptive monolayers and provide a framework for evaluating solvent-responsive surfaces.

functional groups↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the impact of structure and coverage on the reactivity of realistic heterogeneous catalysts

Adsorbates often cover the surfaces of catalysts densely as they carry out reactions, dynamically altering their structure and reactivity. Understanding adsorbate-induced phenomena and harnessing them in our broader quest for improved catalysts is a substantial challenge that is only beginning to be addressed. Here, in this work, we chart a path toward a deeper understanding of such phenomena by focusing on emerging in silico modeling methodologies, which will increasingly incorporate machine learning techniques. We first examine how adsorption on catalyst surfaces can lead to local and even global structural changes spanning entire nanoparticles, and how this affects their reactivity. We then evaluate current efforts and the remaining challenges in developing robust and predictive simulations for modeling such behavior. Last, we provide our perspectives in four critical areas—integration of artificial intelligence, building robust catalysis informatics infrastructure, synergism with experimental characterization, and adaptive modeling frameworks—that we believe can help surmount the remaining challenges in rationally designing catalysts in light of these complex phenomena.

catalytic mechanisms↗

DOE OSTI2025

Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at an International Research Reactor

The nuclear industry recognizes the difficulties involved in developing effective managerial and leadership skills in a highly technical and proficient workforce such as that found in nuclear facilities. Implementing an insider threat mitigation program (ITMP) within the nuclear industry is a complex and ongoing process that demands a comprehensive understanding of human behavior, an organization’s security culture, and rigorous regulatory requirements yet also accounts for facility characteristics, physical security, material flow, and activities involving nuclear material. Given the high-consequence nature of research reactor operations, even minor lapses can lead to safety, security, and reputational risks. An effective ITMP requires a defense-in-depth approach that incorporates behavioral analysis, robust vetting procedures, continuous monitoring, and cross-disciplinary coordination. It must also promote a culture of vigilance and accountability at all levels up to and including executive leadership but be flexible enough to adapt to evolving global threats and technological advances. Insider threat mitigation is not a one-time effort but rather a sustained commitment to excellence in safety and security. Establishing a culture in which personnel proactively report incidents and issues that could affect nuclear safety and security is vital to maintaining a safe and secure operational environment. This document was developed to guide senior management and research reactor organizations in creating comprehensive programs to effectively manage and mitigate insider threat behaviors and actions. It focuses on the key pillars of an effective ITMP, including the national legal framework, security culture, preventive and protective measures, cyber security, and performance evaluation. By using a systematic approach during implementation, facilities can foster environments conducive to insider threat detection and support long-term program sustainability. The document also provides strategies for improving communication across all levels of an organization, helping to eliminate barriers that hinder the development of robust ITMPs and enhance overall security culture. In today’s organizations, the concept of leveraging safety and security culture lessons to facilitate knowledge transfer is rapidly evolving to expedite insider threat management and security culture improvements. This document outlines the rationale for evaluating an ITMP based on national customs, culture, and stakeholders. The elements are all germane to reliability and trustworthiness and relate to security concerns that states may encounter. The document focuses not only on individual perceptions regarding security issues and capability building but also on team building and how to resolve concerns. The implementers of a facility’s ITMP may zero in on indicators of insider threats within their enterprise. This material will benefit organizations when it is applied using a systematic and structured approach as demonstrated throughout the document.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2024

Control Algorithms for Multi-Wavefront Sensor Adaptive Optics for Astronomical Exoplanet Imaging

This package consists of simulations of control algorithms being proposed for upcoming adaptive optics projects for exoplanet direct imaging, in which one wavefront affector (deformable mirror) is controlled by two wavefront sensors. Simulations include time-domain behavior under various assumed conditions, parameter optimization routines for the controllers, and stability analysis.

Sengupta, Aditya↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automated vehicle microscopic energy consumption study (AV-Micro): Data collection and model development

While the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in automated vehicles (AVs) is expected to impact transportation energy significantly, existing AV energy consumption models only directly adopt those developed with Human-driven Vehicle (HV) data without even slight adaptation or calibration to accommodate unique AV energy consumption features. This study will investigate how accurately HV data-based models can predict the energy consumption of AVs. Empirical trajectory data and corresponding instantaneous energy consumption rates from both AVs and HVs were collected. We adopted two classical HV data-based models to fit these data. The calibration results indicated that these models yield around 20 30% prediction errors for AVs. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study designed an AV-Micro model by incorporating components of multiple classic energy consumption models that better capture ACC energy consumption features, including piecewise driving behavior. With this, the AV-Micro model achieves lower than 10% prediction errors. The AV-Micro model’s high consistency across different test runs was verified with statistical significance tests, demonstrating its adaptability in different driving profiles. To confirm the discrepancies between the energy consumption features of AVs and HVs, more statistical significance tests were conducted to show that the AV-Micro model cannot be directly applied to HV data. The findings by calibrated AV-Micro models revealed that AVs consume approximately 80.5–146.4 J more energy than HVs for each meter traveled. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of energy consumption indicates that there is still some room for AVs to improve energy efficiency, particularly given their larger amplitude high-frequency fluctuations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An adaptive, data-driven multiscale approach for dense granular flows

The accuracy of coarse-grained continuum models of dense granular flows is limited by the lack of high-fidelity closure models for granular rheology. One approach to addressing this issue, referred to as the hierarchical multiscale method, is to use a high-fidelity fine-grained model to compute the closure terms needed by the coarse-grained model. The difficulty with this approach is that the overall model can become computationally intractable due to the high computational cost of the high-fidelity model. In this work, we describe a multiscale modeling approach for dense granular flows that utilizes neural networks trained using high-fidelity discrete element method (DEM) simulations to approximate the constitutive granular rheology for a continuum incompressible flow model. Our approach leverages an ensemble of neural networks to estimate predictive uncertainty that allows us to determine whether the rheology at a given point is accurately represented by the neural network model. Additional DEM simulations are only performed when needed, minimizing the number of additional DEM simulations required when updating the rheology. This adaptive coupling significantly reduces the overall computational cost of the approach while controlling the error. In addition, the neural networks are customized to learn regularized rheological behavior to ensure well-posedness of the continuum solution. We first validate the approach using two-dimensional steady-state and decelerating inclined flows. We then demonstrate the efficiency of our approach by modeling three-dimensional sub-aerial granular column collapse for varying initial column aspect ratios, where our multiscale method compares well with the computationally expensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-DEM simulation.

Dense granular flows↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-assembled reconfigurable pump architectures via magnetic colloidal swarms

Self-assembled swarms of interactive active units, which are adaptive and dynamically reconfigurable to accommodate different functionalities, represent a promising platform for the development of next-generation robotics. Here, we utilize the emergent collective behavior of active magnetic colloids confined in quasi-two-dimensional arrays of overlapping wells to demonstrate the self-organization of a colloidal swarm into a dynamic pump architecture capable of controlled transport of passive cargo particles. This dynamic architecture provides a global unidirectional looping flow pattern along the entire length of the system. We show that the flow direction of the dynamic swarm-based pump can be externally controlled by a phase shift of a driving magnetic field energizing the swarm. The experimental observations are supported by computational modeling based on phenomenological coarse-grained particle dynamics coupled to shallow-water Navier-Stokes hydrodynamics. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate how the emergent collective behavior of a swarm can be orchestrated into a desired functionality by exploiting the interplay between activity and confinement potentials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗