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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗
NASA NTRS1997

Validation of a Deterministic Vibroacoustic Response Prediction Model

This report documents the recently completed effort involving validation of a deterministic theory for the random vibration problem of predicting the response of launch pad structures in the low-frequency range (0 to 50 hertz). Use of the Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) methods is not suitable in this range. Measurements of launch-induced acoustic loads and subsequent structural response were made on a cantilever beam structure placed in close proximity (200 feet) to the launch pad. Innovative ways of characterizing random, nonstationary, non-Gaussian acoustics are used for the development of a structure's excitation model. Extremely good correlation was obtained between analytically computed responses and those measured on the cantilever beam. Additional tests are recommended to bound the problem to account for variations in launch trajectory and inclination.

Caimi, Raoul E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 V: Full-Shape galaxy clustering from galaxies and quasars

We present the measurements and cosmological implications of the galaxy two-point clustering using over 4.7 million unique galaxy and quasar redshifts in the range 0.1 < z < 2.1 divided into six redshift bins over a ∼ 7,500 square degree footprint, from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). By fitting the full power spectrum, we extend previous DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements to include redshift-space distortions and signals from the matter-radiation equality scale. For the first time, this Full-Shape analysis is blinded at the catalogue-level to avoid confirmation bias and the systematic errors are accounted for at the two-point clustering level, which automatically propagates them into any cosmological parameter. When analyzing the data in terms of compressed model-agnostic variables, we obtain a combined precision of 4.7% on the amplitude of the redshift space distortion (RSD) signal reaching a similar precision with just one year of DESI data than with twenty years of observation from the previous generation survey. We also analyze the data to directly constrain the cosmological parameters within the ΛCDM model using perturbation theory and combine this information with the reconstructed DESI DR1 galaxy BAO. Using a Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Gaussian prior on the baryon density parameter, ω b , and a weak Gaussian prior on the spectral index, n s , we constrain the matter density is Ω m = 0.296±0.010 and the Hubble constant H 0 = (68.63 ± 0.79)[km s -1 Mpc -1 ]. Additionally, we measure the amplitude of clustering σ 8 = 0.841±0.034. The DESI DR1 galaxy clustering results are in agreement with the ΛCDM model based on general relativity with parameters consistent with those from Planck. The cosmological interpretation of these results in combination with DESI DR1 Ly-α forest data and external datasets are presented in the companion paper [1].

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1981

The effect of temperature fluctuations of reaction rate constants in turbulent reacting flows

Current models of turbulent reacting flows frequently use Arrhenius reaction rate constants obtained from static or laminar flow theory and/or experiments, or from best fits of static, laminar, and turbulent data. By treating the reaction rate constant as a continuous random variable which is temperature-dependent, the present study assesses the effect of turbulent temperature fluctuations on the reaction rate constant. This model requires that a probability density function (PDF) describing the nature of the fluctuations be specified. Three PDFs are examined: the clipped Gaussian, the beta PDF, and the ramp model. All the models indicate that the reaction rate constant is greater in a turbulent flow field than in an equivalent laminar flow. In addition, an amplification ratio, which is the ratio of the turbulent rate constant to the laminar rate constant, is defined and its behavior as a function of the mean temperature fluctuations is described

Chinitz, W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Synoptic Study of an X-Ray Nova in Outburst (ADP 2000)

In the completed work listed above, we present an X--ray spectral and timing analysis of 4131543-47 during its 2002 outburst based on 49 pointed observations obtained using the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). The outburst reached a peak intensity of 4.2 Crab in the 2-12 keV band and declined by a factor of 32 throughout the month-long observation. A 21.9+/-0.6 mJy radio flare was detected at 1026.75 MHz two days before the X-ray maximum; the radio source was also detected late in the outburst, after the X-ray source entered the hard state. The X-ray light curve exhibits the classic shape of a rapid rise and an exponential decay. The spectrum is soft and dominated by emission from the accretion disk. The continuum is fit with a multicolor disk blackbody (kT-max = 1.04 keV) and a power-law (Gamma -2.7). Midway through the decay phase, a strong low-frequency quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO; nu = 7.3-8.1 Hz) was present for several days. The spectra feature a broad Fe K line that is asymmetric, suggesting that the line is due to relativistic broadening rather than Gomptonization. Relativistic Laor models provide much better fits to the line than non-relativistic Gaussian models, particularly near the beginning and end of our observations. The line fits yield estimates for the inner disk radius that are within 6 GM/c 2; this result and additional evidence indicates that this black hole may have a non-zero angular momentum. In current work, we are in the process of analyzing a huge set of RXTE data (-100 pointed observations) for H1743-322, which was in eruption throughout most of 2003. The source s behavior is remarkable. It displays all of the canonical X-ray states, sometimes in unusual ways. In this short report, we feature a single important result, namely, the detection of a pair of high-frequency QPOs. The bright flaring behavior is of special interest. During the flares the shape of the power spectrum and the presence of low-frequency QPOs indicate that the source is in the steep power-law (SPL or very high) state. It is in this state that the high-frequency QPOs, which are believed to emanate from the very inner accretion disk, were oberved. Specifically, we observe a 240 Hz QPO at a significance of 4.7sigma and a 162 Hz QPO at 3.7sigma. The higher frequency QPO was discovered by Homan et al. in an independent data set; they also found marginal evidence (2.5sigma)

McClintock, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS2014

Broad-Band Spectroscopy of Hercules X-1 with Suzaku

Hercules X-1 was observed with Suzaku in the main-on state from 2005 to 2010. The 0.4- 100 keV wide-band spectra obtained in four observations showed a broad hump around 4-9 keV in addition to narrow Fe lines at 6.4 and 6.7 keV. The hump was seen in all the four observations regardless of the selection of the continuum models. Thus it is considered a stable and intrinsic spectral feature in Her X-1. The broad hump lacked a sharp structure like an absorption edge. Thus it was represented by two different spectral models: an ionized partial covering or an additional broad line at 6.5 keV. The former required a persistently existing ionized absorber, whose origin was unclear. In the latter case, the Gaussian fitting of the 6.5-keV line needs a large width of sigma = 1.0-1.5 keV and a large equivalent width of 400-900 eV. If the broad line originates from Fe fluorescence of accreting matter, its large width may be explained by the Doppler broadening in the accretion flow. However, the large equivalent width may be inconsistent with a simple accretion geometry.

X-rays: stars↗
NASA NTRS2014

Broad-band Spectroscopy of Hercules X-1 with Suzaku

Hercules X-1 was observed with Suzaku in the main-on state from 2005 to 2010. The 0.4–100 keV wide-band spectra obtained in four observations showed a broad hump around 4–9 keV in addition to narrow Fe lines at 6.4 and 6.7 keV. The hump was seen in all the four observations regardless of the selection of the continuum models. Thus it is considered a stable and intrinsic spectral feature in Her X-1. The broad hump lacked a sharp structure like an absorption edge. Thus it was represented by two different spectral models: an ionized partial covering or an additional broad line at 6.5 keV. The former required a persistently existing ionized absorber, whose origin was unclear. In the latter case, the Gaussian fitting of the 6.5-keV line needs a large width of σ = 1.0–1.5 keV and a large equivalent width of 400–900 eV. If the broad line originates from Fe fluorescence of accreting matter, its large width may be explained by the Doppler broadening in the accretion flow. However, the large equivalent width may be inconsistent with a simple accretion geometry.

Asami, Fumi↗
NASA NTRS2000

Capacity of Pulse-Position Modulation (PPM) on Gaussian and Webb Channels

This article computes the capacity of various idealized soft-decision channels modeling an optical channel using an avalanche photodiode detector (APD) and pulse-position modulation (PPM). The capacity of this optical channel depends in a complicated way on the physical parameters of the APD and the constraints imposed by the PPM orthogonal signaling set. This article attempts to identify and separate the effects of several fundamental parameters on the capacity of the APD-detected optical PPM channel. First, an overall signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) parameter is de ned such that the capacity as a function of a bit-normalized version of this SNR drops precipitously toward zero at quasi-brick-wall limits on bit SNR that are numerically the same as the well-understood brick-wall limits for the standard additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. A second parameter is used to quantify the effects on capacity of one unique facet of the optical PPM channel (as compared with the standard AWGN channel) that causes the noise variance to be higher in signal slots than in nonsignal slots. This nonuniform noise variance yields interesting capacity effects even when the channel model is AWGN. A third parameter is used to measure the effects on capacity of the difference between an AWGN model and a non-Gaussian model proposed by Webb (see reference in [2]) for approximating the statistics of the APD-detected optical channel. Finally, a fourth parameter is used to quantify the blending of a Webb model with a pure AWGN model to account for thermal noise. Numerical results show that the capacity of M-ary orthogonal signaling on the Webb channel exhibits the same brick-wall Shannon limit, (M ln 2)=(M 1), as on the AWGN channel ( 1:59 dB for large M). Results also compare the capacity obtained by hard- and soft-output channels and indicate that soft-output channels o er a 3-dB advantage.

Dolinar, S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Capacity of PPM on Gaussian and Webb Channels

This paper computes and compares the capacities of M-ary PPM on various idealized channels that approximate the optical communication channel: (1) the standard additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel;(2) a more general AWGN channel (AWGN2) allowing different variances in signal and noise slots;(3) a Webb-distributed channel (Webb2);(4) a Webb+Gaussian channel, modeling Gaussian thermal noise added to Webb-distributed channel outputs.

Capacity PPM Webb Optical↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Communication Channel Density Estimating Generative Adversarial Network

Autoencoder-based communication systems use neural network channel models to backwardly propagate message reconstruction error gradients across an approximation of the physical communication channel. In this work, we develop and test a new generative adversarial network (GAN) architecture for the purpose of training a stochastic channel approximating neural network. In previous research, investigators have focused on additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channels and/or simplified Rayleigh fading channels, both of which are linear and have well defined analytic solutions. Given that training a neural network is computationally expensive, channel approximation networks— and more generally the autoencoder systems—should be evaluated in communication environments that are traditionally difficult. To that end, our investigation focuses on channels that contain a combination of non-linear amplifier distortion, pulse shape filtering, intersymbol interference, frequency-dependent group delay, multipath, and non-Gaussian statistics. Each of our models are trained without any prior knowledge of the channel. We show that the trained models have learned to generalize over an arbitrary amplifier drive level and constellation alphabet. We demonstrate the versatility of our GAN architecture by comparing the marginal probability density function of several channel simulations with that of their corresponding neural network approximations

Smith, Aaron↗
NASA NTRS2021

Weekly Mapping of Sea Ice Freeboard in the Ross Sea from ICESat-2

NASA’s ICESat-2 has been providing sea ice freeboard measurements across the polar regions since October 2018. In spite of the outstanding spatial resolution and precision of ICESat-2, the spatial sparsity of the data can be a critical issue for sea ice monitoring. This study employs a geostatistical approach (i.e., ordinary kriging) to characterize the spatial autocorrelation of the ICESat-2 freeboard measurements (ATL10) to estimate weekly freeboard variations in 2019 for the entire Ross Sea area, including where ICESat-2 tracks are not directly available. Three variogram models (exponential, Gaussian, and spherical) are compared in this study. According to the cross-validation results, the kriging-estimated freeboards show correlation coefficients of 0.56–0.57, root mean square error (RMSE) of ~0.12 m, and mean absolute error (MAE) of ~0.07 m with the actual ATL10 freeboard measurements. In addition, the estimated errors of the kriging interpolation are low in autumn and high in winter to spring, and low in southern regions and high in northern regions of the Ross Sea. The effective ranges of the variograms are 5–10 km and the results from the three variogram models do not show significant differences with each other. The southwest (SW) sector of the Ross Sea shows low and consistent freeboard over the entire year because of the frequent opening of wide polynya areas generating new ice in this sector. However, the southeast (SE) sector shows large variations in freeboard, which demonstrates the advection of thick multiyear ice from the Amundsen Sea into the Ross Sea. Thus, this kriging-based interpolation of ICESat-2 freeboard can be used in the future to estimate accurate sea ice production over the Ross Sea by incorporating other remote sensing data.

Satellite altimeter↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deconvoluting thermomechanical effects in X-ray diffraction data using machine learning

X-ray diffraction is ideal for probing the sub-surface state during complex or rapid thermomechanical loading of crystalline materials. However, challenges arise as the size of diffraction volumes increases due to spatial broadening and because of the inability to deconvolute the effects of different lattice deformation mechanisms. Here, we present a novel approach that uses combinations of physics-based modeling and machine learning to deconvolve thermal and mechanical elastic strains for diffraction data analysis. The method builds on a previous effort to extract thermal strain distribution information from diffraction data. The new approach is applied to extract the evolution of the thermomechanical state during laser melting of an Inconel 625 wall specimen which produces significant residual stress upon cooling. A combination of heat transfer and fluid flow, elasto-plasticity and X-ray diffraction simulations is used to generate training data for machine-learning (Gaussian process regression, GPR) models that map diffracted intensity distributions to underlying thermomechanical strain fields. First-principles density functional theory is used to determine accurate temperature-dependent thermal expansion and elastic stiffness used for elasto-plasticity modeling. The trained GPR models are found to be capable of deconvoluting the effects of thermal and mechanical strains, in addition to providing information about underlying strain distributions, even from complex diffraction patterns with irregularly shaped peaks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1972

Receiver processing for direct-detection optical communication systems.

A model that is sufficiently general to describe the predominant statistical characteristics of the output of many real optical detectors is formulated. This model is used to study the optimum receiver processing for direct-detection optical communication systems. In particular, the structures of detectors and estimators for filtered doubly stochastic Poisson processes (DSPP) observed in additive white Gaussian noise are considered. Representations for the posterior statistics of a vector Markov process that modulates the intensity of the DSPP are obtained.

Hoversten, E. V.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The Composite Analytic and Simulation Package or RFI (CASPR) on a coded channel

CASPR is an analysis package which determines the performance of a coded signal in the presence of Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) and Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN). It can analyze a system with convolutional coding, Reed-Solomon (RS) coding, or a concatenation of the two. The signals can either be interleaved or non-interleaved. The model measures the system performance in terms of either the E(sub b)/N(sub 0) required to achieve a given Bit Error Rate (BER) or the BER needed for a constant E(sub b)/N(sub 0).

Freedman, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS1984

Mathematical models for cochannel interference in FH/MFSK multiple-access systems

FH/MFSK has been proposed for a multiuser spread spectrum digital communication system to combat both self-jamming and intentional jamming. An independence assumption at the energy detector outputs is used to evaluate such a system for a digitized voice mobile radio system (Yue, 1981). This paper presents a correlated model and compares its performance to an independence model under the symbol error probability criterion. A Gaussian process model is also developed for comparison. It is found that the conventional Gaussian approximation is inadequate in predicting the number of users that can be accommodated by an FH/MFSK system using the conventional receiver. Furthermore, for the cases evaluated, the independence model provides an excellent approximation to the correlated model. Additionally, a conditional Chernoff bound is presented for the more general case of frequency-hopping systems with multiple hops per symbol.

Yan, T.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Soft-Decision-Data Reshuffle to Mitigate Pulsed Radio Frequency Interference Impact on Low-Density-Parity-Check Code Performance

This presentation briefly discusses a research effort on mitigation techniques of pulsed radio frequency interference (RFI) on a Low-Density-Parity-Check (LDPC) code. This problem is of considerable interest in the context of providing reliable communications to the space vehicle which might suffer severe degradation due to pulsed RFI sources such as large radars. The LDPC code is one of modern forward-error-correction (FEC) codes which have the decoding performance to approach the Shannon Limit. The LDPC code studied here is the AR4JA (2048, 1024) code recommended by the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) and it has been chosen for some spacecraft design. Even though this code is designed as a powerful FEC code in the additive white Gaussian noise channel, simulation data and test results show that the performance of this LDPC decoder is severely degraded when exposed to the pulsed RFI specified in the spacecraft s transponder specifications. An analysis work (through modeling and simulation) has been conducted to evaluate the impact of the pulsed RFI and a few implemental techniques have been investigated to mitigate the pulsed RFI impact by reshuffling the soft-decision-data available at the input of the LDPC decoder. The simulation results show that the LDPC decoding performance of codeword error rate (CWER) under pulsed RFI can be improved up to four orders of magnitude through a simple soft-decision-data reshuffle scheme. This study reveals that an error floor of LDPC decoding performance appears around CWER=1E-4 when the proposed technique is applied to mitigate the pulsed RFI impact. The mechanism causing this error floor remains unknown, further investigation is necessary.

Ni, Jianjun David↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weak-Form Latent Space Dynamics Identification

This software showcases the enhanced capabilities of the Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI) algorithm through the application of the weak form, resulting in WLaSDI. WLaSDI first compresses the data, then projects it onto test functions, and subsequently learns the local latent space models. Notably, WLaSDI demonstrates significantly improved robustness to noise. Using weak-form equation learning techniques, WLaSDI achieves local latent space modeling. Compared to the standard sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) used in LaSDI, the variance reduction of the weak form ensures robust and precise latent space recovery, enabling fast, robust, and accurate simulations. We demonstrate the efficacy of WLaSDI against LaSDI using several common benchmark examples, including viscid and inviscid Burgers', radial advection, and heat conduction. For instance, in 1D inviscid Burgers' simulations with up to 100% Gaussian white noise, WLaSDI maintains relative errors consistently below 6%, whereas LaSDI errors can exceed 10,000%. Similarly, in radial advection simulations, WLaSDI keeps relative errors below 16%, compared to potential errors of up to 10,000% with LaSDI. Additionally, WLaSDI achieves significant speedups, such as a 140X speedup in 1D Burgers' simulations compared to the corresponding full order model.

Choi, Youngsoo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active Learning‐Driven Inkless Additive Nanomanufacturing for Printed Electronics

Inkless additive nanomanufacturing for printed electronics promises broad material and substrate versatility, yet the high-dimensional print parameter space makes tuning print parameters time-intensive. We present a Bayesian optimization study that constructs a digital twin from printed-silver data to benchmark surrogate models, acquisition functions, and batch sizes head-to-head to achieve user-specified target resistance. Tested surrogate models included Gaussian process, random forest, and Bayesian neural network surrogates with expected improvement and confidence bound acquisition functions. In total, we evaluate 48 unique model configurations alongside a random sampling baseline for comparison. For printed silver, the Bayesian neural network with a batch size of one achieved the lowest average cumulative regret, approximately four times more efficient on average than random sampling. To balance performance and substrate space, a random forest model with expected improvement and a batch size of four was chosen as the model for validation testing. Applying this chosen configuration to copper with an additional print parameter, the model achieved a resistance within 0.15 Ω of a 1 Ω target in fewer than 30 printed lines across five validation sets. Altogether, the workflow yields a tuned and validated model that efficiently guides experiments toward the target while simultaneously learning the parameter space.

Bevel, Colton [Auburn University, AL (United State↗