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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Full-Scaled Advanced Systems Testbed: Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Dryden Flight Research Center completed flight testing of adaptive controls research on the Full-Scale Advance Systems Testbed (FAST) in January of 2011. The research addressed technical challenges involved with reducing risk in an increasingly complex and dynamic national airspace. Specific challenges lie with the development of validated, multidisciplinary, integrated aircraft control design tools and techniques to enable safe flight in the presence of adverse conditions such as structural damage, control surface failures, or aerodynamic upsets. The testbed is an F-18 aircraft serving as a full-scale vehicle to test and validate adaptive flight control research and lends a significant confidence to the development, maturation, and acceptance process of incorporating adaptive control laws into follow-on research and the operational environment. The experimental systems integrated into FAST were designed to allow for flexible yet safe flight test evaluation and validation of modern adaptive control technologies and revolve around two major hardware upgrades: the modification of Production Support Flight Control Computers (PSFCC) and integration of two, fourth-generation Airborne Research Test Systems (ARTS). Post-hardware integration verification and validation provided the foundation for safe flight test of Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion and Model Reference Aircraft Control adaptive control law experiments. To ensure success of flight in terms of cost, schedule, and test results, emphasis on risk management was incorporated into early stages of design and flight test planning and continued through the execution of each flight test mission. Specific consideration was made to incorporate safety features within the hardware and software to alleviate user demands as well as into test processes and training to reduce human factor impacts to safe and successful flight test. This paper describes the research configuration, experiment functionality, overall risk mitigation, flight test approach and results, and lessons learned of adaptive controls research of the Full-Scale Advanced Systems Testbed.

Pavlock, Kate M.↗

Demonstration of a quantum-classical coprocessing protocol for simulating nuclear reactions

Quantum computers hold great promise for exact simulations of nuclear dynamical processes (e.g., scattering and reactions), which are paramount to the study of nuclear matter at the limit of stability and in the formation of chemical elements in stars. However, quantum simulations of the unitary (real) time dynamics of fermionic many-body systems require a currently prohibitive number of reliable and long-lived qubits. Here we propose a co-processing algorithm for the simulation of real-time dynamics in which the time evolution of the spatial coordinates is carried out on a classical processor, while the evolution of the spin degrees of freedom is carried out on quantum hardware. We demonstrate this hybrid scheme with the simulation of two neutrons scattering at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Advanced Quantum Testbed. After implementing error mitigation strategies to improve the accuracy of the algorithm in addition to a combination of circuit compression techniques and tomography as methods to elucidate the onset of decoherence, our results validate the principle of the proposed co-processing scheme. A generalization of this present scheme will open the way for (real-time) path integral simulations of nuclear scattering.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Volcano infrasound: progress and future directions

Over the past two decades (2000–2020), volcano infrasound (acoustic waves with frequencies less than 20 Hz propagating in the atmosphere) has evolved from an area of academic research to a useful monitoring tool. As a result, infrasound is routinely used by volcano observatories around the world to detect, locate, and characterize volcanic activity. It is particularly useful in confirming subaerial activity and monitoring remote eruptions, and it has shown promise in forecasting paroxysmal activity at open-vent systems. Fundamental research on volcano infrasound is providing substantial new insights on eruption dynamics and volcanic processes and will continue to do so over the next decade. The increased availability of infrasound sensors will expand observations of varied eruption styles, and the associated increase in data volume will make machine learning workflows more feasible. More sophisticated modeling will be applied to examine infrasound source and propagation effects from local to global distances, leading to improved infrasound-derived estimates of eruption properties. Future work will use infrasound to detect, locate, and characterize moving flows, such as pyroclastic density currents, lahars, rockfalls, lava flows, and avalanches. Infrasound observations will be further integrated with other data streams, such as seismic, ground- and satellite-based thermal and visual imagery, geodetic, lightning, and gas data. The volcano infrasound community should continue efforts to make data and codes accessible and to improve diversity, equity, and inclusion in the field. In summary, the next decade of volcano infrasound research will continue to advance our understanding of complex volcano processes through increased data availability, sensor technologies, enhanced modeling capabilities, and novel data analysis methods that will improve hazard detection and mitigation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Toward Urban Water Security: Broadening the Use of Machine Learning Methods for Mitigating Urban Water Hazards

Due to the complex interactions of human activity and the hydrological cycle, achieving urban water security requires comprehensive planning processes that address urban water hazards using a holistic approach. However, the effective implementation of such an approach requires the collection and curation of large amounts of disparate data, and reliable methods for modeling processes that may be co-evolutionary yet traditionally represented in non-integrable ways. In recent decades, many hydrological studies have utilized advanced machine learning and information technologies to approximate and predict physical processes, yet none have synthesized these methods into a comprehensive urban water security plan. In this paper, we review ways in which advanced machine learning techniques have been applied to specific aspects of the hydrological cycle and discuss their potential applications for addressing challenges in mitigating multiple water hazards over urban areas. We also describe a vision that integrates these machine learning applications into a comprehensive watershed-to-community planning workflow for smart-cities management of urban water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advanced PPA Reactor and Process Development

Design and development of a second generation Plasma Pyrolysis Assembly (PPA) reactor is currently underway as part of NASA s Atmosphere Revitalization Resource Recovery effort. By recovering up to 75% of the hydrogen currently lost as methane in the Sabatier reactor effluent, the PPA helps to minimize life support resupply costs for extended duration missions. To date, second generation PPA development has demonstrated significant technology advancements over the first generation device by doubling the methane processing rate while, at the same time, more than halving the required power. One development area of particular interest to NASA system engineers is fouling of the PPA reactor with carbonaceous products. As a mitigation plan, NASA MSFC has explored the feasibility of using an oxidative plasma based upon metabolic CO2 to regenerate the reactor window and gas inlet ports. The results and implications of this testing are addressed along with the advanced PPA reactor development work.

Wheeler, Raymond↗

Advanced Plasma Pyrolysis Assembly (PPA) Reactor and Process Development

Design and development of a second generation Plasma Pyrolysis Assembly (PPA) reactor is currently underway as part of NASA's Atmosphere Revitalization Resource Recovery effort. By recovering up to 75% of the hydrogen currently lost as methane in the Sabatier reactor effluent, the PPA helps to minimize life support resupply costs for extended duration missions. To date, second generation PPA development has demonstrated significant technology advancements over the first generation device by doubling the methane processing rate while, at the same time, more than halving the required power. One development area of particular interest to NASA system engineers is fouling of the PPA reactor with carbonaceous products. As a mitigation plan, NASA MSFC has explored the feasibility of using an oxidative plasma based upon metabolic CO2 to regenerate the reactor window and gas inlet ports. The results and implications of this testing are addressed along with the advanced PPA reactor development.

Wheeler, Richard R., Jr.↗

Enabling New Approaches to Low-Cost Dopant Patterning for Interdigitated Back Contact Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells: Cooperative Research and Development, CRADA Number CRD-17-00665 (Final Report)

NREL is sub to the Department of Energy (DOE) Photovoltaic Research & Development (PVRD) project, titled "New Approaches to Low-Cost Scalable Doping for Interdigitated Back Contact Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells", awarded to Colorado School of Mines. The goal of this project was to develop an industrially relevant dopant patterning technique that enable high performing, cost efficient Interdigitated Back Contact (IBC) solar cells based on n-Cz silicon wafer. Several possibilities were explored at the beginning of the project and the masked plasma deposition was deselected as the most promising and industrially relevant. This method was thoroughly explored ion the course of the project, its limitations revealed and mitigated. NREL successfully the masked deposition integrated into the cell's process flow and produced the cells, alongside with numerous process development steps and application of in-house advanced characterization techniques. The report describes these developments by the task and in detail.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Scale-up Testing of Advanced Polaris Membrane in CO2 Capture Technology

This final technical report describes work conducted by Membrane Technology and Research, Inc. (MTR) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Lab (NETL) on the scale-up and testing of advanced Polaris™ membrane CO2 capture technology at the Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) under award number DE-FE0031591. The work was performed from August 1, 2018 through January 31, 2023. The overall goal of this project was to design, build and operate an advanced Polaris membrane CO2 capture system at TCM. MTR was assisted in this project by Trimeric Corporation (Trimeric), an engineering design services company, the Carbon Capture Simulation for Industry Impact (CCSI2), a partnership among national laboratories, industry, and academic institutions, and the Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM), who provided the host site for the slipstream field test. This report details the work conducted to scale-up MTR’s second-generation (Gen-2) Polaris membrane and advanced planar membrane modules to a final form factor optimized for commercial use; validate their performance in an engineering-scale field test at TCM; and to show the potential of the MTR process to meet DOE CO2 capture targets from large source point emitters. Work for this project included membrane optimization and scale-up, advanced planar module design and fabrication, design and fabrication of an engineering-scale field test membrane skid, operation of the field test skid processing Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC) industrial flue gas at TCM, and a detailed techno-economic analysis (TEA) of the MTR membrane post-combustion process for CO2 capture. This project validated recent membrane technology advancements at the engineering-scale, moves the MTR advanced post-combustion capture technology to TRL-6, and mitigates risk in future Large Pilot or Demonstration scale-up activities.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

N 2 Onet: a global collaborative network facilitating advances in measurement, modeling, and mitigation of agricultural soil nitrous oxide emissions

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer supports global food production, but its use and overuse drive emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent and long-lived greenhouse gas. Understanding the drivers of N 2 O fluxes remains elusive, making it difficult to predict emissions in time and space and to develop and evaluate ways to lower emissions through management. Major scientific uncertainties underlying the understanding of the drivers of N 2 O fluxes identified in a workshop of N 2 O emissions experts include poor process-based understanding of controls on soil N 2 O emissions in the field; insufficient data to reduce uncertainty in N 2 O budgets from the field to regional scales, including N 2 O emission measurements and importantly, field-scale N balances; and high uncertainty in model predictions of soil N 2 O emissions across environmental and management conditions. To reduce these uncertainties, we present the concept of N 2 Onet, a global collaborative initiative to accelerate advances in N 2 O measurement, analyses, and mitigation. N 2 Onet will serve as an observational network of supersites with multi-scale measurements; a database hub for N 2 O flux and ancillary data; and a catalyst for community building, information sharing, and training. By coalescing and coordinating the global community of researchers, N 2 Onet will provide a roadmap for reducing N 2 O emissions from agriculture worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Autonomous Mission Operations

NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Autonomous Mission Operations (AMO) project conducted an empirical investigation of the impact of time-delay on todays mission operations, and of the effect of processes and mission support tools designed to mitigate time-delay related impacts. Mission operation scenarios were designed for NASA's Deep Space Habitat (DSH), an analog spacecraft habitat, covering a range of activities including nominal objectives, DSH system failures, and crew medical emergencies. The scenarios were simulated at time-delay values representative of Lunar (1.2-5 sec), Near Earth Object (NEO) (50 sec) and Mars (300 sec) missions. Each combination of operational scenario and time-delay was tested in a Baseline configuration, designed to reflect present-day operations of the International Space Station, and a Mitigation configuration in which a variety of software tools, information displays, and crew-ground communications protocols were employed to assist both crews and Flight Control Team (FCT) members with the long-delay conditions. Preliminary findings indicate: 1) Workload of both crew members and FCT members generally increased along with increasing time delay. 2) Advanced procedure execution viewers, caution and warning tools, and communications protocols such as text messaging decreased the workload of both flight controllers and crew, and decreased the difficulty of coordinating activities. 3) Whereas crew workload ratings increased between 50 sec and 300 sec of time-delay in the Baseline configuration, workload ratings decreased (or remained flat) in the Mitigation configuration.

Mission Operations↗

Vulnerabilities in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Applications and Data

Artificial intelligence (AI) applications driven by machine learning (ML) are transformational technologies within the international nuclear security regime. Advancements realized by AI—faster and improved data insights, more efficient and automated processes, reductions in human error—enable nuclear security applications such as behavior analysis for insider threat mitigation, source tracking of stolen nuclear material, and facial recognition software for physical protection. In addition to the advantages, however, there are also inherent vulnerabilities and threats associated with its use and risk mitigations must be built into any AI/ML-enabled systems. This work provides a background on AI and ML and different data types used in the field, including open-source intelligence information (OSINT) that is discoverable by AI tools and application data that are used by AI tools for decision-making and automation. Current and potential AI applications and vulnerabilities related to their use within the nuclear security regime are also discussed.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Confidence Assessment for Automatic Target Recognition

Confidence assessment is critical for effective automatic target recognition (ATR). Productive use and interpretation of ATR results by analysts or downstream algorithms requires not only algorithmic declarations of target presence and identity, but also algorithmic assessment of the certainty of those declarations in comparison to the certainties of alternative target-identity possibilities. Unfortunately, despite its importance, confidence assessment is an understudied, underdeveloped, and often-neglected function of ATR systems. This lack of regard stems not only from the difficulty of accurate algorithmic determination of target-identity certainty, but also from a general lack of understanding and careful consideration about what confidence should actually represent. We present a framework for confidence assessment that establishes a clear definition of confidence and provides a straightforward theoretical basis for its calculation. This framework is grounded in a hypothesis-theoretic consideration of ATR and it springs from from a handful of axiomatic principles concerning the nature and meaning of confidence in this context. This framework establishes a rigorous mathematical definition of confidence and it provides equations relating confidence to other information that is almost always provided by ATRs. We present an approach for computing confidence within this framework, using an advance process of ATR characterization followed by a simple computation at the time of ATR execution. We discuss practical difficulties with our approach, and we suggest methods for effective mitigation of these difficulties in implemented systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

EDL Pathfinder Missions

NASA is developing a long‐term strategy for achieving extended human missions to Mars in support of the policies outlined in the 2010 NASA Authorization Act and National Space Policy. The Authorization Act states that "A long term objective for human exploration of space should be the eventual international exploration of Mars." Echoing this is the National Space Policy, which directs that NASA should, "By 2025, begin crewed missions beyond the moon, including sending humans to an asteroid. By the mid‐2030s, send humans to orbit Mars and return them safely to Earth." Further defining this goal, NASA's 2014 Strategic Plan identifies that "Our long‐term goal is to send humans to Mars. Over the next two decades, we will develop and demonstrate the technologies and capabilities needed to send humans to explore the red planet and safely return them to Earth." Over the past several decades numerous assessments regarding human exploration of Mars have indicated that landing humans on the surface of Mars remains one of the key critical challenges. In 2015 NASA initiated an Agency‐wide assessment of the challenges associated with Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) of large payloads necessary for supporting human exploration of Mars. Due to the criticality and long‐lead nature of advancing EDL techniques, it is necessary to determine an appropriate strategy to improve the capability to land large payloads. This paper provides an overview of NASA's 2015 EDL assessment on understanding the key EDL risks with a focus on determining what "must" be tested at Mars. This process identified the various risks and potential risk mitigation strategies, that is, benefits of flight demonstration at Mars relative to terrestrial test, modeling, and analysis. The goal of the activity was to determine if a subscale demonstrator is necessary, or if NASA should take a direct path to a human‐scale lander. This assessment also provided insight into how EDL advancements align with other Agency Mars lander activities such as the technology portfolio investments and post‐2020 robotic Mars Exploration Program missions.

Drake, Bret G.↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Emission‐Driven Land‐Atmosphere Coupled Simulation in E3SMv2.1

Emissions-driven (prognostic CO 2 ) simulations are essential for representing two-way carbon-climate feedback in Earth System Models. We present an emissions-driven land–atmosphere coupled biogeochemistry (BGC) configuration (BGCLNDATM_progCO2) in version 2.1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2.1). This is the first E3SM configuration that performs land-atmosphere emission-hindcasts. Here, we document its implementation, evaluate the model's performance against observations and other models, and propose a structured evaluation protocol for such emissions-driven simulations. We conducted transient historical simulations (1850–2014) with BGCLNDATM_progCO2 and compare them to reference simulations—a land-atmosphere coupled simulation without BGC and a standalone land simulation with BGC, both using prescribed CO 2 concentrations—and to observations. BGCLNDATM_progCO2 overestimates atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by 11–23 ppm yet stays within the 40-ppm spread CMIP6 emission-driven models and retains physical climate properties comparable to the reference runs. The CO 2 biases are partly attributed to underrepresented oceanic CO 2 uptake and inadequate representations of some terrestrial processes. In general, introducing prognostic CO 2 did not change physical climate metrics at the global scale but had larger regional effects, particularly over land where spatially heterogeneous CO 2 and prognostic leaf area index influenced surface energy balance. Finally, we propose a general evaluation protocol including spin-up assessment, atmospheric CO 2 benchmarking, physical climate evaluation, and land biogeochemical analysis to support scientific rigor and facilitate inter-model comparisons. The new configuration lays the groundwork for future enhancements, including improved terrestrial biogeochemical processes, integrated marine biogeochemistry, and additional human–Earth system interactions. These developments advance E3SM toward fully coupled emissions-driven simulations, enabling more accurate carbon–climate feedback projections and informing mitigation policy by providing physically consistent carbon-budget metrics for mitigation scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimization of Mitigating System Performance Index to Improve Nuclear Power Plant Safety and Efficiency

MSPI (Mitigation System Performance Index) is one of the risk-informed, plant-specific performance indicators of NRC’s Reactor Oversight Process. MSPI is used by the regulator and nuclear industry to monitor and assess the performance of plant mitigating systems. In this project, a calculation tool has been developed by incorporating the plant operation data, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) data, and industry baseline values to automate the calculation process of MSPI and the generation of the report. This is the first stage in an effort to optimize the MSPI through advanced artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques to improve nuclear power plant safety and efficiency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA's Moon to Mars Autonomous Habitat Status

NASA is developing a strategy for sending humans to the Mars vicinity, known broadly as the Moon to Mars (M2M) Campaign. A critical part of this campaign is the development of in-space and surface habitation systems capable of substantially extending human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Mars missions feature an in-space transit habitat capable of supporting crews of four on ~850-1200-day missions, including transit to and from Mars and time in Mars orbit. Surface and transit habitats are complex elements which must keep crewmembers healthy and productive in deep-space environments with limited resources, long rescue times in contingency situations, and communication delays; all within constrained mass, volume, and power budgets. These habitats provide crew both living and workspace as well as most of the resources needed to support crew life. For deep space habitats, automation needs to be employed due to latency and for significant amounts of time when the habitats are uncrewed. Automation of systems is possible in space applications, but there are limitations. Outside of the Earth’s (or any) magnetosphere, radiation environments are harsh to both the physical hardware and the software components. Radiation (charged particles and ionizing electromagnetic waves) degrades and damages the hardware and causes single event upsets (SEUs) in software. If the hardware is damaged, data can be lost, or control actions not made. For software, SEUs cause algorithms to result in different solutions, or incorrect commands to be sent out. This means that algorithms and hardware used for deep space systems are different than what is used on Earth. Radiation-tolerant hardware is generations behind the current state-of-the-art hardware. Recent NASA missions, such as James Webb Space Telescope, continue to rely on older technologies such as the RAD750 processor, and the most advanced processors are still single core and less than 1.5 GHz. There have been attempts to use higher performance processors, but these often take multiple mitigation steps to handle the radiation environments, which limits the processing power and/or throughput. Current techniques for radiation mitigation have been redundancies, voting, physical separation of hardware, encasing materials, under-clocking hardware, and more. Some radiation mitigation techniques do provide benefits such as having a redundant system to improve the probability that a system will be available when needed. Autonomous software systems will have fewer interactions with humans on deep space missions and therefore need to be able to handle more off-nominal conditions. Microgravity also complicates the autonomous aspects of the mission because autonomous systems are usually built from known deterministic states, but microgravity causes physical objects to shift and move changing the location an autonomous system placed the object. Not only does the software need to be reliable and deterministic, losing resources due to a software error is not only costly but detrimental to reputation. The combination of having lower performance hardware and having to be able to verify and deterministically run software and an ever-changing environment makes deep space autonomous systems more complicated. Multiple gaps have been identified including verification of autonomous software algorithms (including artificial intelligence and machine learning), higher performance processors (graphics and general purpose), high speed networks (onboard and transmissions), memory, power distribution, data security, and variations from these. These gaps need to be closed for more advanced systems to be deployed and reduce the size, weight, and power impacts on the habitats.

Scott B. Tashakkor↗