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DOE OSTI2024

Wholesale Electricity Markets and Resource Adequacy with High Clean Energy Generation Targets

Wholesale electricity markets are intended to incentivize system generation investments and operations outcomes that meet evolving system needs. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of wholesale market structures, rules and policies in achieving system resource adequacy (RA) and clean energy targets in the presence of self-interested generation investors using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Results highlight that both capacity markets and operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) can help achieve a reliable system but with different RA compliance timelines and distribution of generation technologies. Structures with capacity markets tend to favor more capital-intensive peaking technologies while reducing wind and solar build-outs due to suppressed energy and clean energy market prices, particularly in the absence of strong clean energy targets. Conversely, ORDCs improve the commitment of available generation units, but this comes at the expense of higher system costs and renewable generation curtailment. We also find that well-calibrated static capacity demand curves can yield similar reliability and total cost compared to capacity market demand curves informed dynamically by resource adequacy while also yielding stable annual capacity prices. Different approaches to formulating ORDC curves can also yield key trade-offs, namely that a more efficient treatment of storage chronology results in lower ORDC curves and prices, yielding less investment and cost but at the expense of reliability. Finally, the effectiveness of wholesale electricity markets in practically achieving very high clean energy generation targets highly depends on the cost-competitiveness of clean energy technologies that can support critical balancing needs across multiple timescales.

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wholesale Electricity Market Design to Support Resource Adequacy

agent based modeling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Human Factors and Technologies Design to Improve User Acceptance of Pooled Rideshare for Increasing Transportation System Energy Efficiency

This multi-year project delivered a comprehensive, human-factors-driven framework to understand, model, and improve pooled rideshare (PR) adoption in the United States. Through three large-scale national survey studies involving more than 16,000 participants across multiple cities and demographic groups, the research established one of the most extensive datasets to date on user perceptions, behavioral barriers, and service expectations related to pooled rideshare. These data revealed key human factors barriers of user acceptance of PR and suggested potential actionable experience optimizations that could lead to increased PR usage. This foundational knowledge guided the development of novel human-factors models and behavioral choice models that quantify how psychological, demographic, and trip-level factors influence willingness to pool. Building on these empirical insights, the project developed advanced behavioral modeling tools, including mixed logit and integrated choice and latent variable models, to capture both observable and latent influences on PR adoption. These models significantly improved the ability to predict riders’ acceptance of pooled trips, explaining choice heterogeneity through latent constructs such as safety, service experience, privacy concerns, time sensitivity, and environmental attitudes. Together, these models provide a robust analytical foundation for designing PR systems that more effectively meet user needs. The project translated human-factors insights and behavioral models into actionable technology innovations by extending POLARIS—an agent-based, activity-based travel simulation platform—into a fully functional pooled rideshare simulation environment. New PR modules, acceptance models, and regional scenarios were implemented for Greenville, SC and Austin, TX, enabling high-fidelity validation of algorithmic strategies under realistic demand and traffic conditions. The simulation platform supported the development and evaluation of adaptive discount-based assignment algorithms, enhanced willingness-to-pay formulations, demographic-aware incentive mechanisms, and a proactive joint assignment and repositioning strategy. Simulation results demonstrated substantial gains in pooling uptake, average vehicle occupancy, energy efficiency, and fleet profitability. In Greenville, pooling adoption more than doubled, while reductions in vehicle-miles traveled and energy consumption were significant. In Austin, pooling improvements were achieved with minimal service-quality trade-offs, and profitability increased across all fleet sizes. Through this research, we developed a comprehensive understanding of the human factors barriers that limit user acceptance of pooled rideshare services. These insights enabled the design of human-factors-aware pooled rideshare technologies that more effectively address user concerns and improve adoption rates. By integrating these models into an advanced agent-based simulation framework, we demonstrated that higher adoption of pooled rideshare can lead to measurable improvements in energy efficiency and system performance. Together, these contributions establish a validated pathway from human-centered analysis to technology development and energy-saving outcomes, supporting national goals for more sustainable and efficient mobility systems.

Jia, Yunyi↗

DOE OSTI2025

EVI-EnSitePy (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure – Energy Estimation and Site Optimization Tool in Python) [EVI-X Modeling Suite] [SWR-25-07]

EVI-EnSitePy is a comprehensive agent-based tool designed for the analysis and design of high-power charging sites, encompassing a wide array of site agents including Electric Vehicles (EVs), chargers, energy storage units (ESS), renewable energy resources (DER), and loads. This versatile tool offers diverse functionalities and a modular modeling approach, allowing detailed configuration of agents based on power ratings, port numbers, energy capacities, demand requirements, charger interfaces, and flexibility to customize the tool for project specific goals. By simulating agent interactions and employing various metrics, EVI-EnSitePy enables the assessment of site performance, exploration of energy management systems (EMS), and implementation of innovative EV charging policies. Utilizing EV charge schedules and arrival states, the tool performs thorough charging site simulations, with outputs consisting of agent and site-level power profiles and statistical metrics. Employing a tree graph structure, EVI-EnSitePy supports nested site structures and power distribution modeling. The tool's ability to generate charging schedules deterministically or via stochastic analysis further enhances its versatility. Through its features and capabilities, EVI-EnSitePy offers a powerful platform for informed decision-making in the realm of high-power charging site design and operation.

Jackson, Derek [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2025

Siting and sizing of public–private charging stations impacts on household and electric vehicle fleets

To facilitate the provision of electric vehicle charging stations (EVCS) in urban areas, this study investigates the benefits of co-locating fleet-owned chargers with public charging stations to enable construction incentives and cord-sharing cost savings. Shared EVCS can serve charging demand from both user types: private (household) EV owners and those managing fleet vehicles – like shared and fully automated EV (SAEV) fleets. Using POLARIS to simulate all person-travel across the 6-county Austin, Texas region, new EVCS were sited and sized with DC fast-charging (DCFC) plugs to lower operating and construction costs while providing public + private (PP) service across an 81-square-mile core geofence (where 200 SAEVs were active) over 24-hour days. When co-location is permitted, 115 DCFC cords were added to the 23 existing (publicly available) stations to enable SAEVs and household EVs (HHEVs) charging access, within the geofence. Each 250-mile-range SAEV was simulated to travel an average of 330 miles per day, serve over 92 person-trips, and recharge 2.7 times a day (for 2.4 h per session). The new DCFC plugs were primarily added to public EVCS at shopping centers and schools, and in residential settings along freeways. The average plug served 4.8 EVs per day. Most co-located PP EVCS permitted immediate (no-wait) charging, except for 2 stations along freeways that averaged 8 min of wait time to begin charging. In conclusion, the co-location strategy lowered fleet owners’ initial EVCS construction costs by 12 % (thanks to cord-sharing to avoid cord duplication), while reducing SAEV wait times to just 3.1 min (versus 10.7 min if SAEV managers had to build and operate their own EVCS).

EV charging modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

CHARGE-MAP: An integrated framework to study the multicriteria EV charging infrastructure expansion problem

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years has necessitated the development of effective charging infrastructures. However, charging infrastructure expansion is a multifaceted problem that requires careful consideration of the existing infrastructure, spatiotemporal distribution of charging demands, power-grid capacity, and budget constraints. Here, to approach this complex problem, we present CHARGE-MAP, a data-driven simulation-optimization framework, focused on ensuring meaningful charging experience for individual EV owners. CHARGE-MAP integrates three modules: an agent-based simulation module that estimates spatiotemporal distribution of charging demands by modeling EV adopter mobility and charging behavior; an optimization module that determines optimal new charging station/charger locations and capacities, while minimizing expected detour distances and wait-times with a limited number of new stations; and a power module that determines how to connect the stations to the power grid while maintaining its stability. Using the state of Virginia (consisting of 95 counties and 38 independent cities) as a case study, our results show that CHARGE-MAP can meet the demand of ~198,600 predicted EVs with 1,305 new public charging stations and 2,164 new chargers. It reduces average detour distances for charging by 66% and wait-times at stations by 72% compared to the existing infrastructure. Furthermore, transformer capacity requirement analysis reveals that only 1.8% of residential transformers require upgrades, while over 80% of commercial charging locations can be supported with modest transformer infrastructure (25 to 50 kVA). This indicates that targeted investments can facilitate cost-effective EV integration. Consequently, CHARGE-MAP provides policymakers and urban planners with crucial data-driven insights for effective EV charging infrastructure expansion. Sign up for PNAS alerts.

charging infrastructure↗

DOE OSTI2025

From clutter to clarity: Emergent neural operators via questionnaire metrics

Real-world datasets in chemical engineering and bioengineering processes—such as those from catalytic reactors, multiphase flows, polymerization reactors, bioreactors, and clinical trials—can often be unlabeled or disorganized, rendering the training of existing supervised learning models ineffective at learning the underlying dynamics. To salvage these datasets for decision-making, we first seek to obtain clarity from the cluttered data. Here, we present a framework for developing “structural” generative models, discovering emergent equations, and constructing efficient emulators from scrambled datasets by integrating unsupervised organizational learning techniques (Questionnaires) with advanced deep learning architectures (Deep Hidden Physics Models and Deep Operator Networks). Our approach is demonstrated on two illustrative model systems: (a) a 1D advection–diffusion partial differential equation representing a winding underground pipe and (b) an ensemble of Stuart–Landau oscillators, an agent-based system of coupled ordinary differential equations. In both cases, we successfully reconstruct meaningful spatial, temporal, and parameter embeddings from scrambled data, enabling good predictions of system dynamics. As a result, we highlight the framework’s potential for broader applications, enabling data-driven system identification in fields with inherently disorganized or hidden parameter spaces.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

SetGo: Metadata Readiness for Scientific AI Datasets

Scientific datasets intended for AI use require both computational readiness for model training and metadata readiness for discovery, sharing, and reuse. The Readiness Engine for Data Integration (REDI) addresses computational readiness, but no corresponding tool evaluates whether a dataset’s metadata are sufficiently complete, governed, and standards-compliant for publication and agent-based consumption. Existing FAIR assessors operate only on published repository records, and no single system covers FAIR compliance, licensing, provenance, governance, reproducibility, and catalog readiness together. We present SetGo, an open-source Python toolkit that assesses and repairs metadata readiness across these six dimensions before a dataset is published or archived. Applied to four scientific corpora, SetGo surfaces deficiencies that general-purpose tools do not detect: ERA5 climate metadata scores 4% on ACDD 1.3 compliance; materials datasets fail OPTIMADE species-definition requirements; and PDB-derived proteomics data carries licensing terms incompatible with standard SPDX identifiers. Guided enrichment raises overall FAIR scores from 52–57% to 81–91%, and a single setgo publish command pushes to Hugging Face Hub, CKAN, or OpenMetadata with ML Commons Croissant 1.0 metadata sidecars. To support interactive and automated workflows, SetGo integrates with coding agents powered by large language models (LLMs) through a /setgo skill that enables natural-language execution of the full assess–enrich–publish loop, with user involvement limited to supplying missing metadata values.

Wilkinson, Sean [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000214437479)↗

DOE OSTI2025

A2SD: Accelerating Scientific Innovation Through Autonomous Discovery Systems

The 2025 Advancing Autonomous Scientific Discovery (A2SD) workshop convened researchers from academia, national laboratories, and industry to explore the transformative role of autonomy in scientific discovery. The workshop highlighted a convergence of artificial intelligence, robotics, and computational workflows into autonomous systems capable of accelerating the scientific process. Presentations and discussions spanned autonomous experimentation, intelligent workflow orchestration, digital twins, and agent-based systems for managing complex research ecosystems. Key challenges discussed included interoperability across heterogeneous infrastructures, near real-time data management under FAIR principles, reproducibility, and the integration of human oversight. The workshop also emphasized the need for modular software interfaces, federated learning models, and education initiatives to support a next-generation scientific workforce.

Taufer, Michela [University of Tennessee, Knoxvill↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatial Impacts of Electric Vehicle Charging on Power Grid Stability: A Downtown Atlanta Case Study

The rapid increase in electric vehicle (EV) charging demand poses a potential risk to power grid stability, particularly as the spatial distribution of this demand remains underexplored. Existing research often focuses on technical optimization models while overlooking the geographic and human dynamics that affect energy consumption. This study addresses this gap by incorporating mobility data to estimate both building energy use and EV charging demand while also considering geographic factors for a better understanding of grid load. Using agent-based simulations and the Open-Source Distribution System Simulator, the study evaluates the effect of various EV penetration scenarios on grid voltage and unbalance. The results show that, although voltage remains within acceptable limits at lower EV penetration rates, significant voltage drop and unbalance occur as EV penetration exceeds 40%, particularly in residential areas with high charging demand. This study offers a framework for integrating spatial analysis and mobility data in power network simulations, providing insights for future EV infrastructure planning.

Pan, Melrose [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031627448X)↗

DOE OSTI2025

DEMographic MicrOSimulation (DEMOS) v2.0

DEMOS is an agent-based simulation framework used to evolve population demographic characteristics or lifecycle events such as education, marital status etc. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies of short-term and long-term lifecycle events often influential in downstream transportation and land use modeling. An important facet of DEMOS is that it is dynamic, meaning it captures the impact of an agent's demographic characteristics in year 't' on their demographic status in year 't+1'. This has important consequences on medium- and long-term downstream modeling in different domains, such as transportation where decisions such as household vehicle transactions (i.e., buying, selling, or replacing a vehicle) depend current or past household vehicle holdings as well as household transitions. Other downstream modeling that can be enabled by DEMOS include building technology adoption or retrofit decisions, and more. DEMOS modules include: individual age progression year by year, individual mortality events, household restructuring events including marriage match-making; household birth events; individual education participation; individual labor force participation; child leaving household; household in-migration and out-migration for the region; household residence location choice and household mandatory destination choice (work and school). This version of DEMOS is tailored to be integrated with the land use simulation software UrbanSim.

Caicedo, Juan [UrbanSim, Inc.]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating disease surveillance strategies for early outbreak detection in contact networks with varying community structure

Disease surveillance systems allow public health agencies to respond to emerging diseases before they become widespread. Developing such systems requires identifying optimal ways to monitor in the context of an epidemic outbreak; this problem is known as sensor selection. Contact networks represent the dynamics of interaction in a population and are used to model how a disease spreads in a population and to explore strategies of sensor selection. We evaluated five sensor selection strategies on their ability to provide an early warning of a COVID-like outbreak in synthetic contact networks encapsulated in four network scenarios. Three of these scenarios assessed different aspects of community structure. The fourth scenario employed a contact network representing the population and interactions of 6.8 million people in New York City, constructed from an agent-based simulation using census and transportation data. This scenario exemplifies how sensor selection strategies may perform in a real-world, urban context. Our findings suggest that the choice of the optimal strategy depends heavily on the community structure of the network. Strategies that select highly connected nodes or maximize network coverage are the optimal surveillance strategy for outbreak detection in many network community structures. However, a naive implementation of these strategies may fail to provide an early warning at all—including in the New York City scenario. Moreover, these methods are impractical for real-world use as they require knowledge of the underlying contact network. Instead, a selection strategy that starts with a set of random nodes and then performs a random walk through a chain of neighbors reliably provides early warnings without requiring prior knowledge of the network. We find this method, called “random chain”, to be the most pragmatic for implementation in a real-world disease surveillance context.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Agent-Based Simulation of Price-Demand Dynamics in Multi-Service Charging Station

As the adoption of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles grows, understanding how dynamic pricing strategies influence charging and refueling behaviors becomes crucial for optimizing local energy markets. This paper proposes a simulation-based analysis of a hydrogen-electricity integrated charging station that serves both types of vehicles. A multi-agent simulation framework is developed to model the interactions between vehicles and the station, incorporating price- and delay-sensitive behaviors in decision-making. The station can dynamically adjust energy prices, while vehicles optimize their charging or refueling choices based on their utility values. A series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate how electricity pricing, infrastructure capacity, and waiting behavior impact station performance. Results highlight that moderate electricity prices maximize user participation without sacrificing profit, infrastructure should be right-sized to demand to avoid over- or underutilization, and delay-toleration also affects service outcomes, which may reach the maximum service coverage at the threshold of 45 minutes.

Wang, Xudong [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bounded-Confidence Models of Multidimensional Opinions with Topic-Weighted Discordance

People’s opinions on a wide range of topics often evolve over time through their interactions with others. Models of opinion dynamics primarily focus on one-dimensional opinions, which represent opinions on one topic. However, opinions on various topics are rarely isolated; instead, they can be interdependent and correlated. In a bounded-confidence model (BCM) of opinion dynamics, agents are receptive to each other only if their opinions are sufficiently similar. Here, we extend classical agent-based BCMs—namely, the Hegselmann–Krause BCM, which has synchronous interactions, and the Deffuant–Weisbuch BCM, which has asynchronous interactions—to a multidimensional setting, in which the opinions are multidimensional vectors representing opinions of different topics and opinions on different topics are interdependent. To measure opinion differences between agents, we introduce topic-weighted discordance functions that account for opinion differences in all topics. We define regions of receptiveness for our models, and we use them to characterize the steady-state opinion clusters and provide an analytical approach to compute these regions. In addition, we numerically simulate our models on various networks with initial opinions drawn from a variety of distributions. When initial opinions are correlated across different topics, our topic-weighted BCMs yield significantly different results in both transient and steady states compared to baseline models, where the dynamics of each opinion topic are independent.

Mathematics and Computing↗