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DOE OSTI2020

Fast Evaluation of Aircraft Icing Severity Using Machine Learning Based on XGBoost

Aircraft icing represents a serious hazard in aviation which has caused a number of fatal accidents over the years. In addition, it can lead to substantial increase in drag and weight, thus reducing the aerodynamics performance of the airplane. The process of ice accretion on a solid surface is a complex interaction of aerodynamic and environmental variables. The complex relationship makes machine learning-based methods an attractive alternative to traditional numerical simulation-based approaches. In this study, we introduce a purely data-driven approach to find the complex pattern between different flight conditions and aircraft icing severity prediction. The supervised learning algorithm Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) is applied to establish the prediction framework which makes prediction based on any set of observations. The input flight conditions for the proposed prediction framework are liquid water content, droplet diameter and exposure time. The proposed approach is demonstrated in three cases: maximum ice thickness prediction, icing area prediction and icing severity level evaluation. Performance comparison studies and error analysis are also conducted to verify the effectiveness and performance of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method has reasonable capability in evaluating aircraft icing severity.

Li, Sibo (ORCID:000000021705844X)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chapter 13: All-Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing Aircraft (eVTOL) for Sustainable Urban Travel

Increasing urbanization, ground congestion, and greenhouse gas emissions have spurred aircraft pioneers to capitalize on advancements in battery technology, electric motors, software, and other advances to develop all-electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft intended to save travelers time within densely populated urban regions. This study served as an example for conducting a life-cycle analysis (LCA) of an eVTOL aircraft, analyzing its manufacturing process, its in-life operation as a passenger transportation service between urban locations, and (in part) end-of-life treatment. This case study aims to provide guidance on how to accurately conduct eVTOL LCA, particularly on how to define the problem, how to obtain the right information from engineers inside and outside their own organizations, and what areas to focus on. As LCA results are only as accurate as the assumptions that were made, a more rigorous LCA that includes sensitivity analysis and uncertainty characterization can help further understand the limitations of those assumptions. New technologies such as blockchain may also play an important role in LCA, including the life-cycle inventory and improving confidence intervals. Completing a credible LCA is central to supporting the argument in favor of introducing the new technology. Completing such a study will allow companies to demonstrate to relevant stakeholders the likely impact of their aircraft on the environment by quantifying the operational climate footprint of the aircraft and the manufacturing process used to build it. To this end, this case study also provides examples of how to report and present LCA results, optimizing for communications to non-LCA experts. The LCA can also assist in identifying opportunities to improve the environmental performance at various life-cycle stages, informing decision makers as products and manufacturing processes evolve or are redesigned. Given the nascency of both eVTOL aircraft manufacturing and operations, it is strongly recommended that LCA analysts treat reports on eVTOL aircraft as works-in-progress. As new information is found, design changes are made, and the aircraft or operation gains maturity, it is inevitable that some amendments will need to be made to the LCA. It is suggested that a complete overhaul of the LCA be made every 18-24 months throughout the R&D, design, and operational scale-up phases of the project.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Design complexity and performance analysis in additively manufactured heat exchangers

The main objective of this research is to investigate the tradeoffs between design complexity and thermal performance in additively manufactured metallic heat exchangers. Such heat exchangers have become a favorite topic for investigation in various fields ranging from air conditioning to aircraft gas turbine engines. In particular, high manufacturing cost has emerged as the major drawback in broad applications of manifold-microchannel heat exchanger (MMHXs). The possibility of cost-effective manufacturing has generated wide interest in applying additive manufacturing (AM) for fabricating MMHXs. Furthermore, AM technologies will provide an opportunity for enhanced design and superior heat transfer performance. In this study, innovative MMHXs are designed and fabricated through selective laser melting. An experimental setup was designed to measure pressure drop and heat transfer for the developed MMHXs with a wide range of Reynolds numbers. Furthermore, the coefficient of performance was calculated based on the heat flow rate, air pressure drop, and air flow rate. Measurement results demonstrated that in some scenarios adding more internal features, i.e., increasing design complexity, does not necessarily improve the MMHX performance.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Portable aircraft controller devices and systems

A portable computerized device for an aircraft control system includes an input system for inputting commands, a device display for displaying information on the computerized device, a processor, a wireless communication module, and a non-transitory computer readable medium comprising computer executable instructions, the computer executable instructions configured to cause the processor to perform a method. The method can include detecting whether the portable computerized device is in a cockpit state such that the portable computerized device is in and/or docked to an aircraft cockpit or if the portable computerized device is in a remote state such that the portable computerized device is not in an aircraft cockpit or is not docked to an aircraft cockpit. If the portable computerized device is determined to be in a remote state, the method includes operating the remote device in a remote mode. If the portable computerized device is determined to be in a cockpit state, the method includes operating the device in a local mode.

Sahay, Prateek↗

DOE OSTI2020

Columnar Vertical Profile (CVP) Methodology for Validating Polarimetric Radar Retrievals in Ice Using In Situ Aircraft Measurements

Abstract A novel way to process polarimetric radar data collected via plan position indicator (PPI) scans and display those data in a time–height format is introduced. The columnar vertical profile (CVP) methodology uses radar data collected via multiple elevation scans, limited to data within a set region in range and azimuth relative to the radar, to create vertical profiles of polarimetric radar data representative of that limited region in space. This technique is compared to others existing in the literature, and various applications are discussed. Polarimetric ice microphysical retrievals are performed on CVPs created within the stratiform rain region of two mesoscale convective systems sampled during two field campaigns, where CVPs follow the track of research aircraft. Aircraft in situ data are collocated to microphysical retrieval data, and the accuracy of these retrievals is tested against other retrieval techniques in the literature.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the differences in the vertical distribution of modeled aerosol optical depth over the southeastern Atlantic

Abstract. The southeastern Atlantic is home to an expansive smoke aerosol plume overlying a large cloud deck for approximately a third of the year. The aerosol plume is mainly attributed to the extensive biomass burning activities that occur in southern Africa. Current Earth system models (ESMs) reveal significant differences in their estimates of regional aerosol radiative effects over this region. Such large differences partially stem from uncertainties in the vertical distribution of aerosols in the troposphere. These uncertainties translate into different aerosol optical depths (AODs) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the free troposphere (FT). This study examines differences of AOD fraction in the FT and AOD differences among ESMs (WRF-CAM5, WRF-FINN, GEOS-Chem, EAM-E3SM, ALADIN, GEOS-FP, and MERRA-2) and aircraft-based measurements from the NASA ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) field campaign. Models frequently define the PBL as the well-mixed surface-based layer, but this definition misses the upper parts of decoupled PBLs, in which most low-level clouds occur. To account for the presence of decoupled boundary layers in the models, the height of maximum vertical gradient of specific humidity profiles from each model is used to define PBL heights. Results indicate that the monthly mean contribution of AOD in the FT to the total-column AOD ranges from 44 % to 74 % in September 2016 and from 54 % to 71 % in August 2017 within the region bounded by 25∘ S–0∘ N–S and 15∘ W–15∘ E (excluding land) among the ESMs. ALADIN and GEOS-Chem show similar aerosol plume patterns to a derived above-cloud aerosol product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) during September 2016, but none of the models show a similar above-cloud plume pattern to MODIS in August 2017. Using the second-generation High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2) to derive an aircraft-based constraint on the AOD and the fractional AOD, we found that WRF-CAM5 produces 40 % less AOD than those from the HSRL-2 measurements, but it performs well at separating AOD fraction between the FT and the PBL. AOD fractions in the FT for GEOS-Chem and EAM-E3SM are, respectively, 10 % and 15 % lower than the AOD fractions from the HSRL-2. Their similar mean AODs reflect a cancellation of high and low AOD biases. Compared with aircraft-based observations, GEOS-FP, MERRA-2, and ALADIN produce 24 %–36 % less AOD and tend to misplace more aerosols in the PBL. The models generally underestimate AODs for measured AODs that are above 0.8, indicating their limitations at reproducing high AODs. The differences in the absolute AOD, FT AOD, and the vertical apportioning of AOD in different models highlight the need to continue improving the accuracy of modeled AOD distributions. These differences affect the sign and magnitude of the net aerosol radiative forcing, especially when aerosols are in contact with clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stokes-dependent droplet collection efficiency on a NACA 0012 airfoil from droplet-informed simulations with statistical overloading

Accurate modelling of ice accretion on aircraft wings requires analysing droplet impingement on the surface to optimize the design of ice-protection systems. We perform Euler–Lagrange simulations of a droplet-laden flow impinging on a NACA 0012 airfoil. Our study includes water droplets with eight discrete sizes ranging from 1 to 160 microns. We vary the free-stream velocity of the incoming airflow in the range 60 ≤ U ≤ 240 m s −1 and the chord length of the airfoil in the range 0.5 ≤ c ≤ 2 m. Due to the dilute nature of supercooled clouds, one-way coupling is used in the simulations. The effects of droplet breakup and collision are also neglected. To reduce the computational cost, we employ statistical overloading of droplets, allowing us to simulate millions of impinging droplets in a time span on the order of milliseconds. Our results show that the droplet collection efficiency, which measures the likelihood of droplet impingement on the airfoil surface, increases with droplet size and free-stream velocity but decreases with airfoil size. We demonstrate that collection efficiency, impingement velocity and impingement angle are primarily dictated by a single non-dimensional parameter, the droplet Stokes number. We also identify a critical stagnation-streamline Stokes number below which impingements do not occur and use it to estimate the minimum droplet size for impingement. In addition, we observe droplet behaviour to become Stokes number independent at large values of the Stokes number. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Heat and mass transfer in frost and ice’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Aviation Fuel Characterization at Operationally Relevant Conditions

To accelerate approval and potentially expand the allowable property range for aviation fuels, we are using high performance computing simulations to reveal fuel property effects on aviation combustor performance. These simulations are supported by fuel property measurements over temperatures and pressures that the fuel experiences in an aircraft engine and by validated chemical kinetics models for SAF combustion. Here we report density, viscosity, and surface tension results for conventional jet fuel and multiple synthetic fuels from -30 degrees Celsius to 200 degrees Celsius (-40 degrees Celsius for viscosity) and 1 atm to 70 atm including an assessment of method repeatability. Properties of surrogate mixtures are also investigated. Distillation, ICN, LHV, flashpoint, and Cp are also reported, and data are being used to develop models to predict fuel properties from composition (GCxGC).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Internal arcing and lightning strike damage in short carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic composites

Short carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic composites (S-CFRTP) are currently used in interior parts of aircraft such as electronic circuitry and assemblies, and their usage in aircraft's exterior is also being studied. In this paper, we present a lightning strike study on S-CFRTPs. High performance thermoplastics such as a polyphenylene sulfide (PPS) reinforced with 50% weight (wt.) short carbon fiber (CF), a polyphenyl sulfone (PPSU) reinforced with 25 % wt. Short CF and a acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) with 20 % wt. short CF were tested against artificial lightning strikes. All samples were prepared using an extrusion compression molding (ECM) technique. A modified component A (100 kA) of lightning waveform, as defined by SAE ARP 5412-B, was applied. High speed imaging, thermography, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and ultrasonic non-destructive evaluation were performed to understand the effect of lightning strikes on the thermoplastic panels. The results show that electrical conductivity of the composite, thermal stability of the polymers, and CF orientation significantly affected the damage from artificial lightning strikes. PPS composite had the highest resilience against lightning strike damage, retaining 95% and 89% residual flexural strength and modulus, respectively. CF exfoliation due to internal arcing was observed in the carbon fiber-reinforced ABS polymer (CF-ABS) composite. CF exfoliation damage has been reported for the first time.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of UKESM aerosol size and composition using ATom measurements indicates missing marine aerosol formation mechanisms

Atmospheric aerosols influence climate through their interactions with radiation and clouds, yet large uncertainties remain in their simulation by global models. This study evaluates the United Kingdom Earth System Model version 1.1 (UKESM1.1) using global-scale aircraft observations from the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission, focusing on aerosol lifecycle processes in the remote marine atmosphere. We assess model performance in simulating aerosol precursor vapours, number size distributions, chemical composition, and environmental conditions. Several process improvements are tested, including sulfuric acid-ammonia nucleation, ammonium nitrate scheme, methanesulfonic acid condensation, and low-temperature isoprene-derived secondary organic aerosol formation. Model biases differ significantly between the upper troposphere (UT) and the marine boundary layer (MBL). In the UT, UKESM1.1 overestimates nucleation and Aitken mode particles while underestimating accumulation mode, indicating insufficient growth. In the MBL, the model overestimates primary aerosols (e.g. seasalt) and precursor gases but underestimates nucleation and Aitken mode particles, even after incorporating updated nucleation and ammonium nitrate scheme. The persistence of low aerosol number concentrations, despite overestimated precursors, suggests missing formation pathways likely involving other species such as iodine, amines, and organic vapours. These limitations result in an unbalanced cloud condensation nuclei budget that over-relies on primary emissions. Sensitivity tests reveal that model outputs are strongly influenced by dimethyl sulfide emissions and vapour condensation schemes. Our results highlight the need for future model development to prioritise mechanistic representation of currently missing aerosol sources, rather than relying on empirical tuning, to improve aerosol-climate interaction estimates.

He, Xu-Cheng [Univ. of Cambridge (United Kingdom);↗

DOE OSTI2021

Disjunctive linear separation conditions and mixed-integer formulations for aircraft conflict resolution

In this paper, we address the aircraft conflict resolution problem in air traffic control. We introduce new mixed-integer programming formulations for aircraft conflict resolution with speed, heading and altitude control which are based on disjunctive linear separation conditions. We first examine the two-dimensional aircraft conflict resolution problem with speed and heading control represented as continuous decision variables. We show that the proposed disjunctive linear separation conditions are equivalent to the classical nonlinear conditions for aircraft separation. Further, we characterise conflict-free trajectories based on aircraft velocity bounds and propose a simple pre-processing algorithm to identify aircraft pairs which are either always conflict-free, or which cannot be separated using speed and heading control only. We then incorporate altitude control and propose a lexicographic optimisation formulation that aims to minimise the number of flight level changes before resolving outstanding conflicts via two-dimensional velocity control. The proposed mixed-integer programming formulations are nonconvex, and we propose convex relaxations, decomposition methods and constraint generation algorithms to solve the two-dimensional and lexicographic optimisation formulations to guaranteed optimality. Numerical experiments on four types of conflict resolution benchmarking instances are conducted to test the performance of the proposed mixed-integer formulations. Further, the proposed method is compared against two benchmarks based on state-of-the-art approaches for the aircraft conflict resolution problem. Our numerical results show that the proposed method largely outperforms both benchmarks in terms of runtime and is able to solve significantly more instances to global optimality.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cooling Strategies for an Electric Motor with Additively Manufactured Hollow Conductors and Distributed Power Electronics Integrated with Heat Pipes

This paper discusses design tradeoffs and thermal modeling explored in cooling strategies for an aircraft propulsion electric motor with additively manufactured coils and distributed power electronics integrated with heat pipes. Design tradeoffs include heat pipe Qmax performance related to inclination, condenser configuration, coolant type, coolant flow path complexity, and ease of access to modular power electronics. Three cooling strategies were selected and realized into CAD models. These models were further evaluated using 3D thermal FEA and optimization tools to explore cooling geometry details that include fin thickness, spacing and count with the objective to minimize fin mass under a set of constraints. Lastly, motorette test data is presented comparing air versus liquid cooling of heat pipes.

additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seismic Performance of Deeply Embedded Conceptual Advanced Reactors: Three-Dimensional Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction Analyses

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s functional containment concept provides advanced nuclear power plant designers with more flexibility in terms of the civil/structural design if the appropriate set of barriers for prevention of radioactive material release exist. Some of the conceptual advanced reactor structures, without the traditional pressure boundaries of large containment structures, are proposed to be deeply embedded or buried into soil. This approach is expected to provide (1) lesser seismic demands on the structures and safety-critical structures, (2) eased regulatory efforts and overall design against other external hazards such as aircraft impact, and (3) overall cost savings. Further, one of the important aspects of assessing the technical and economic viability of deeply embedding advanced reactor buildings is to assess the seismic performance with the understanding of effects with material and geometric nonlinearities. This study investigates the seismic response of deeply embedded or buried advanced reactors by conducting three-dimensional nonlinear soil-structure interaction analyses. Although the results indicate that there is a general trend of decreased seismic response with increased embedment depths, the change in the dynamic environment with different embedment depths and the nonlinear environment under high-intensity seismic inputs may result in increased peak response at increased embedment depths.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Oil and Gas Ethane and Methane Emissions in the Southcentral and Eastern United States Using Four Seasons of Continuous Aircraft Ethane Measurements

In the last decade, much work has been done to better understand methane (CH 4 ) emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) industry in the United States. Ethane (C 2 H 6 ), a gas that is co-emitted with thermogenic sources of CH 4 , is emitted in the US predominantly by the O&G sector. Here, in this study, we perform an inverse analysis on 200 h of atmospheric boundary layer C 2 H 6 measurements to estimate C 2 H 6 emissions from the US O&G sector. Measurements were collected from 2017 to 2019 as part of the Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT) America aircraft campaign and encompass much of the central and eastern United States. We find that for the fall, winter, and spring campaigns, C 2 H 6 data consistently exceeds values that would be expected based on EPA O&G leak rate estimates by more than 50%. C 2 H 6 observations from the summer 2019 data set show significantly lower C 2 H 6 enhancements in the southcentral region that cannot be reconciled with data from the other three seasons, either due to complex meteorological conditions or a temporal shift in the emissions. Combining the fall, winter, and spring C 2 H 6 posterior emissions estimate to an inventory of O&G CH 4 emissions, we estimate that O&G CH 4 emissions are larger than EPA inventory values by 48%–76%. Uncertainties in the gas composition data limit the accuracy of using C 2 H 6 as a proxy for O&G CH 4 emissions. These limits could be resolved retroactively by increasing the availability of industry-collected gas composition data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The promise of energy-efficient battery-powered urban aircraft

Improvements in rechargeable batteries are enabling several electric urban air mobility (UAM) aircraft designs with up to 300 mi of range with payload equivalents of up to seven passengers. Novel UAM aircraft consume between 130 Wh/passenger-mi and ∼ 1,200 Wh/passenger-mi depending on the design and utilization, compared to an expected consumption of over 220 Wh/passenger-mi and 1,000 Wh/passenger-mi for terrestrial electric vehicles and combustion engine vehicles, respectively. We also find that several UAM aircraft designs are approaching technological viability with current Li-ion batteries, based on the specific power and energy, while rechargeability and lifetime performance remain uncertain. These aspects highlight the technological readiness of a new segment of transportation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Radar Retrieval Evaluation and Investigation of Dendritic Growth Layer Polarimetric Signatures in a Winter Storm

Abstract This study evaluates ice particle size distribution and aspect ratio φ Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) dual-polarization radar retrievals through a direct comparison with two legs of observational aircraft data obtained during a winter storm case from the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) campaign. In situ cloud probes, satellite, and MRMS observations illustrate that the often-observed K dp and Z DR enhancement regions in the dendritic growth layer can either indicate a local number concentration increase of dry ice particles or the presence of ice particles mixed with a significant number of supercooled liquid droplets. Relative to in situ measurements, MRMS retrievals on average underestimated mean volume diameters by 50% and overestimated number concentrations by over 100%. IWC retrievals using Z DR and K dp within the dendritic growth layer were minimally biased relative to in situ calculations where retrievals yielded −2% median relative error for the entire aircraft leg. Incorporating φ retrievals decreased both the magnitude and spread of polarimetric retrievals below the dendritic growth layer. While φ radar retrievals suggest that observed dendritic growth layer particles were nonspherical (0.1 ≤ φ ≤ 0.2), in situ projected aspect ratios, idealized numerical simulations, and habit classifications from cloud probe images suggest that the population mean φ was generally much higher. Coordinated aircraft radar reflectivity with in situ observations suggests that the MRMS systematically underestimated reflectivity and could not resolve local peaks in mean volume diameter sizes. These results highlight the need to consider particle assumptions and radar limitations when performing retrievals. significance statement Developing snow is often detectable using weather radars. Meteorologists combine these radar measurements with mathematical equations to study how snow forms in order to determine how much snow will fall. This study evaluates current methods for estimating the total number and mass, sizes, and shapes of snowflakes from radar using images of individual snowflakes taken during two aircraft legs. Radar estimates of snowflake properties were most consistent with aircraft data inside regions with prominent radar signatures. However, radar estimates of snowflake shapes were not consistent with observed shapes estimated from the snowflake images. Although additional research is needed, these results bolster understanding of snow-growth physics and uncertainties between radar measurements and snow production that can improve future snowfall forecasting.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance and Reliability Assessment of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Advisor (ADA)

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility provides one of the world's largest openly accessible repositories of atmospheric observations through the ARM Data Discovery platform. Although the repository contains more than three decades of measurements collected from permanent observatories, mobile facilities, aircraft campaigns, and field experiments, identifying appropriate datasets can be challenging, particularly for new users unfamiliar with ARM instrumentation and datastream organization. To improve data accessibility, the ARM Data Center developed the ARM Data Advisor (ADA), an artificial intelligence-powered assistant designed to facilitate scientific data discovery, dataset interpretation, and user guidance. This report evaluates ADA's performance as a domain-specific scientific assistant using realistic atmospheric science workflows. The evaluation examines five key capabilities: data retrieval and curation efficiency, hallucination resistance, scientific reasoning, response to ambiguous queries, and content retention and session continuity. Representative prompts were developed to simulate typical interactions between researchers and the ARM Data Discovery platform, and ADA's responses were assessed for retrieval completeness, scientific accuracy, consistency, and practical usefulness. In these representative tests, ADA reduced the complexity of discovering and accessing ARM datasets by recommending appropriate datastreams, explaining instrumentation, interpreting metadata, and assisting with data processing workflows. ADA also exhibits strong domain knowledge of atmospheric science terminology and generally resists hallucination by acknowledging unavailable datasets and requesting clarification when appropriate. Overall, the results indicate that ADA represents a promising advancement in scientific data discovery within the ARM User Facility and has considerable potential to improve researcher productivity, particularly for new users and interdisciplinary scientists seeking efficient access to ARM observations.

Salvador, Christian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000283287777↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Bird Strike Likelihood to Refine Bird Strike Risk Models

In its most basic form, bird strike risk is comprised of a frequency component that reflects the likelihood of a collision and a severity component that reflects the cost (monetary or otherwise) of the incident. The bird strike risk model currently used by United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) Wildlife Services to evaluate the risk posed by individual bird species at airports and establish priorities for management was developed in 2018. The model uses airport-specific data on the number of reported strikes for a species recorded in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s National Wildlife Strike Database as a measure of frequency and the species’ relative hazard score as a measure of severity. The model was tested against independent data, found to perform well overall, and is being implemented widely across the United States. However, the model has limitations, including that species known to pose risk to aircraft locally, but not present in the strike record database, are not reflected as a major component of risk. Standard bird survey methodology commonly used at airports (e.g. point counts or transects) potentially can be used to complement wildlife strike records to calculate frequency or relative abundance of species. However, these methods generally focus on airport-wide population estimation and often ignore vital information that contributes to the true likelihood of a strike, such as use of runway protection zones and other critical areas, and spatial and temporal overlap with departing or approaching aircraft. As such, a more detailed understanding of space use by birds across landcovers and population fluctuations across the year is needed to accurately estimate the likelihood of bird strikes at airports. In this manuscript, we will review the extant risk model, including a discussion on its limitations. We then discuss approaches for refining our understanding of strike likelihood and briefly touch on needs for estimating probability of strike severity (cost).

bird strike, aircraft collision, damage by wildlif↗