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NASA NTRS2010

GSFC Heliophysics Science Division FY2010 Annual Report

This report is intended to record and communicate to our colleagues, stakeholders, and the public at large about heliophysics scientific and flight program achievements and milestones for 2010, for which NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Heliophysics Science Division (HSD) made important contributions. HSD comprises approximately 323 scientists, technologists, and administrative personnel dedicated to the goal of advancing our knowledge and understanding of the Sun and the wide variety of domains that its variability influences. Our activities include: Leading science investigations involving flight hardware, theory, and data analysis and modeling that will answer the strategic questions posed in the Heliophysics Roadmap; Leading the development of new solar and space physics mission concepts and support their implementation as Project Scientists; Providing access to measurements from the Heliophysics Great Observatory through our Science Information Systems; and Communicating science results to the public and inspiring the next generation of scientists and explorers.

Gilbert, Holly R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Maintaining the program balance, volumes 1 and 2

In March of 1990, the NASA Administrator asked the Academy to perform a study to address the following questions: (1) has NASA contracted too much of its technical work; (2) has NASA's in-house technical capability eroded over time; (3) is in-house engineering and scientific work important to the development of scientists and engineers; and (4) is NASA still able to attract quality scientists and engineers. A panel from the Academy addressed each question separately and came up with the following recommendations: (1) prepare and issue guidance on technical functional areas reserved for in-house performance; (2) convert contracted technical functions to in-house performance if critical to agency programs; (3) provide policy guidance to the centers to retain in-house projects; (4) examine the project mix at each center against agency goals and objectives; (5) institute an annual critical review for all technical disciplines; (6) modify the agency's contractor accountability process; and (7) seek opportunities for greater delegation of resources and technical decision making.

Finger, Harold↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards a Marine Stratus Climatology on Drizzle Occurrence from CALIPSO

Marine stratus are a predominant feature of our planet with the annual mean coverage exceeding 20%. They strongly reflect sunlight, yet exert only a modest effect on outgoing infrared radiation, providing a significant net cooling to the Earth’s radiative balance. Their formation is coupled to boundary layer circulations that are driven, in part, by cloud top radiative cooling and evaporative cooling from precipitation in downdrafts. Understanding how these cloud systems evolve as the climate changes is a key question that requires additional information on their lifecycle and microphysical properties to accurately represent their behavior in global circulation models. From a large-scale perspective, insight into the microphysical properties of marine stratus at cloud top can be realized through estimates of the effective radius (Re) of the droplet size distributions derived from MODIS observations. Estimates on the occurrence of rain/drizzle are available from CloudSat. Together these observations indicate that precipitation frequently occurs in clouds with higher cloud top Re. This relationship is consistent with the well documented shift in cloud top droplet size distributions towards fewer, yet larger droplets prior the onset of precipitation. Here we report on a new and complementary set observations from the CALIPSO mission. The approach derives an extinction-to-backscatter ratio (Sc, also known as the cloud lidar ratio) using an established relationship that depends on observations of the lidar attenuated backscatter and volume depolarization ratio within the cloud. Because Sc is strongly and inversely related to Re, a change in the derived Sc from higher to lower values corresponds to a change in the droplet size distribution as seen by MODIS. This change in the lidar signals at cloud top clearly identifies clouds that are capable of precipitation. The presentation provides a brief overview of the approach for deriving Sc and compares CALIOP-derived Sc with observations from other techniques. CALIOP classifications of drizzling clouds, based on the retrieved values Sc, are compared to independent, collocated assessments of drizzle occurrence reported in the standard CloudSat data products. Regional and seasonal comparisons highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the two sensors. A machine learning approach that combines information from both CALIOP and CloudSat showcases possible improvements in the global identification of scenes likely to contain rain-bearing clouds.

CALIPSO↗
NASA NTRS2003

Evolving Technologies for In-Situ Studies of Mars Ice

Icy sites on Mars continue to be of high scientific importance. These sites include the polar caps, the southern mid-latitude subsurface permafrost, and the seasonal frost. These sites have interest due to their roles in climate processes, past climates, surface and near-surface water, astrobiology, geomorphology, and other topics. As is the case for many planetary features, remote sensing, while of great value, cannot answer all questions; in-situ examination is essential, and the motivation for in-situ observations generally leads to the subsurface, which, fortunately, is accessible on Mars. It is clear in fact that a Mars polar cap subsurface mission is both scientifically compelling and practical. Recent data from orbiting platforms has provided a remarkable level of information about the Mars ice caps; we know, for example, the size, shape and annual cycle of the cap topography as well as we know that of Earth, and we have more information on stratification that we have of, for example, the ice of East Antarctica. To understand the roles that the Mars polar caps play, it is necessary to gather information on the ice cap surface, strata, composition and bed. In this talk the status of in-situ operations and observations will be summarized, and, since we have conveniently at hand another planet with polar caps, permafrost and ice, the role of testing and validation of experimental procedures on Earth will be addressed.

Carsey, F. D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

SMD Technology Development Story for NASA Annual Technology report

The role of the Science Mission Directorate (SMD) is to enable NASA to achieve its science goals in the context of the Nation's science agenda. SMD's strategic decisions regarding future missions and scientific pursuits are guided by Agency goals, input from the science community-including the recommendations set forth in the National Research Council (NRC) decadal surveys-and a commitment to preserve a balanced program across the major science disciplines. Toward this end, each of the four SMD science divisions-Heliophysics, Earth Science, Planetary Science, and Astrophysics-develops fundamental science questions upon which to base future research and mission programs. Often the breakthrough science required to answer these questions requires significant technological innovation-e.g., instruments or platforms with capabilities beyond the current state of the art. SMD's targeted technology investments fill technology gaps, enabling NASA to build the challenging and complex missions that accomplish groundbreaking science.

technology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Isolating the Surface Type Influence on Arctic Cloud Properties

In response to anthropogenic climate change, substantial declines in sea ice have been observed. An urgent question is whether and how clouds respond to the changing Arctic surface. Due to the important radiative influence of clouds, the response of clouds to sea ice cover change constitutes a potentially important climate feedback within the Arctic. The sign of this feedback is strongly influenced by the seasonality of the cloud response to sea ice loss. Given the importance of this phenomenon, previous research focused on using observations of inter-annual variability to quantify the cloud-sea ice relationship. However, the reliance on inter-annual variability to assess the covariance between clouds and sea ice make it challenging to control for the influence of large-scale meteorology on the clouds. We have devised an approach that applies an in situ, airborne observational strategy to quantify the influence of surface type on Arctic clouds to satellite data. Our event-based method composites cloud property differences for ocean, marginal ice zone, and sea ice surface types for >5000 MIZ crossing events. We find that cloud properties in non-summer months below ~1.5 km are influenced by surface type such that greater cloud fraction and water content are found over ocean relative to sea ice regions. Results are statistically significantly at the 95% confidence level. During summer, the surface type does not influence the cloud properties. The primary cause of the surface type dependent cloud property differences is the thermodynamic profiles differences that occur between the two surface types: namely, ocean footprints are warmer, moister, have more positive surface turbulent fluxes and are less stable than their sea ice counterparts. We find that the differences in thermodynamic profiles by surface type that correspond to the cloud property differences also explains a significant portion of the variability across events. Our analysis provides evidence that the influence of surface type on cloud properties fundamentally occurs due to the inherent surface temperature differences between the surface types. Significant surface type influences on cloud properties are only found in the presence of surface temperature differences between the surface types and only non-summer months meet this criterion. A conceptual model of this process is as follows, fundamental properties of the ocean and sea ice surface types (e.g., surface albedo, heat capacity/thermal inertia, surface roughness, and thermal conductance) lead to systematic differences in the surface temperature by surface type. In response to this surface temperature difference, atmosphere boundary layer processes (including turbulent mixing and radiation) communicate the surface temperature differences to the lower atmosphere driving the greater stability over sea ice than ocean. These differences in the background thermodynamic state profiles between the surface types yield atmospheric conditions that are more conducive to cloud development over ocean than sea ice. The details of these boundary layer processes are sensitive to the surface type but may not be fundamental to the resulting thermodynamic structure and cloud differences. Thus, our results indicate that to accurately model that cloud response to sea ice loss in climate models the surface type properties that yield the systematic differences in ocean and sea ice temperature (e.g., surface albedo, surface turbulent fluxes parameters, and thermal conductance) must be accurately represented.

Arctic radiation budget↗
NASA NTRS2009

Overview of Proposal on High Resolution Climate Model Simulations of Recent Hurricane and Typhoon Activity: The Impact of SSTs and the Madden Julian Oscillation

This talk gives an update on the progress and further plans for a coordinated project to carry out and analyze high-resolution simulations of tropical storm activity with a number of state-of-the-art global climate models. Issues addressed include, the mechanisms by which SSTs control tropical storm. activity on inter-annual and longer time scales, the modulation of that activity by the Madden Julian Oscillation on sub-seasonal time scales, as well as the sensitivity of the results to model formulation. The project also encourages companion coarser resolution runs to help assess resolution dependence, and. the ability of the models to capture the large-scale and long-terra changes in the parameters important for hurricane development. Addressing the above science questions is critical to understanding the nature of the variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon and its regional impacts, and thus CLIVAR RAMP fully endorses the proposed tropical storm simulation activity. The project is open to all interested organizations and investigators, and the results from the runs will be shared among the participants, as well as made available to the broader scientific community for analysis.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2017

NASA's EOSDIS, Trust and Certification

NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) has been in operation since August 1994, managing most of NASA's Earth science data from satellites, airborne sensors, filed campaigns and other activities. Having been designated by the Federal Government as a project responsible for production, archiving and distribution of these data through its Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), the Earth Science Data and Information System Project (ESDIS) is responsible for EOSDIS, and is legally bound by the Office of Management and Budgets circular A-130, the Federal Records Act. It must follow the regulations of the National Institute of Standards and Technologies (NIST) and National Archive and Records Administration (NARA). It must also follow the NASA Procedural Requirement 7120.5 (NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management). All these ensure that the data centers managed by ESDIS are trustworthy from the point of view of efficient and effective operations as well as preservation of valuable data from NASA's missions. Additional factors contributing to this trust are an extensive set of internal and external reviews throughout the history of EOSDIS starting in the early 1990s. Many of these reviews have involved external groups of scientific and technological experts. Also, independent annual surveys of user satisfaction that measure and publish the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI), where EOSDIS has scored consistently high marks since 2004, provide an additional measure of trustworthiness. In addition, through an effort initiated in 2012 at the request of NASA HQ, the ESDIS Project and 10 of 12 DAACs have been certified by the International Council for Science (ICSU) World Data System (WDS) and are members of the ICSUWDS. This presentation addresses questions such as pros and cons of the certification process, key outcomes and next steps regarding certification. Recently, the ICSUWDS and Data Seal of Approval (DSA) organizations merged their Core Trustworthy Data Repositories Requirements and require that members be recertified every three years. Given the rigor with which NASA manages the ESDIS Project and the DAACs, the recertification through WDSDSA, while involving some additional work, is a relatively simple process.

Certification↗
NASA NTRS1999

Wintertime East Asian Jet Stream and its Association with the Asian-Pacific-American Climate

The wintertime upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation over Asia. The variabilities of the jet on these time scales have been relatively well documented (e.g., Yeh et al. 1959, Palmen and Newton 1969; Zeng 1979). It has also been understood that the inter-annual variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation (Bjerknes 1966; Chang and Lau 1980; Huang and Gambo 1982; Kang and Held 1986; Tao and Chen 1987; Lau et al. 1988; Yang and Webster 1990; Ding 1992; Webster and Yang 1992; Dong et al. 1999). However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the jet and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the jet and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet linked to North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern? In this study, we address several issues related to the wintertime EAJ with a focus on interannual time scales. We will examine the association between the jet core and ENSO, which has always been overshadowed by the relationship between ENSO and the upper-tropospheric winds over northern extratropics of the central Pacific. We will investigate the linkage of the jet to variabilities of the Asian winter monsoon, tropical convection, and upper tropospheric wave patterns. We will also explore the relationship between the jet core and extratropical S ST with an aim at providing helpful information for improving our understanding of the connection of the EAJ to surface boundary conditions. The analysis is expected to provide information that is helpful for improving regional climate predictions.

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS1979

Ocean tidal excitation of polar motion

An investigation was conducted to ascertain the response of the rotational motion of the earth to forcing functions produced by the water mass redistribution due to the ocean tides. In particular, the components of displacement of the rotation axis at the surface of the Earth were obtained. The investigation also addressed the larger question concerning the possibility of excitation of the Chandler wobble of the earth. In general, the results show the existence of a polar wobble as a response to each of the components of the ocean tides. The magnitude of the polar displacement depends on two factors: the amplitude of the tidal component and its period. The maximum periodic contributions are: the Doodson's component number 055.565 with a period of 18.613 years and 50 cm of polar displacement, the annual component 056.544 with 37 cm of polar displacement and the semi-annual 057.555 with 32 cm. The tidal components with daily and semi-daily periods yield very small polar displacements of the order of 0.01 cm. The combined effect of all the periodic components can yield as much as 90 cm of pole displacements. The changes produced by the ocean tides in the products of inertia are periodic and regular, therefore, they cannot be the source of excitation of the Chandler wobble.

Sanchez, B. V.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Climate and Lightning: An updated TRMM-LIS Analysis

The TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) has sampled global tropical and sub-tropical lightning flash densities for approximately 11 years. These data were originally processed and results presented by the authors in the 3rd AMS MALD Conference held in 2007 using both pre and post TRMM-boost lightning data. These data were normalized for the orbit boost by scaling the pre-boost data by a fixed constant based on the different swath areas for the pre and post-boost years (post-boost after 2001). Inevitably, one must question this simple approach to accounting for the orbit boost when sampling such a noisy quantity. Hence we are in the process of reprocessing the entire 11-year TRMM LIS dataset to reduce the orbit swath of the post-boost era to that of the pre-boost in order to eliminate sampling bias in the dataset. Study of the diurnal/seasonal/annual sampling suggests that those biases are already minimal and should not contribute to error in examination of annual trends. We will present new analysis of the 11-year annual trends in total lightning flash density for all latitudinal belts and select regions/regimes of the tropics as related to conventional climate signals and precipitation contents in the same period. The results should enable us to address, in some fashion, the sensitivity of the lightning flash density to subtle changes in climate.

Petersen, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Exploring the Possibilities: Earth and Space Science Missions in the Context of Exploration

According to Dr. Edward J. Weiler, Director of the Goddard Space Flight Center, "Exploration without science is tourism". At the American Astronautical Society's 43rd Annual Robert H. Goddard Memorial Symposium it was quite apparent to all that NASA's current Exploration Initiative is tightly coupled to multiple scientific initiatives: exploration will enable new science and science will enable exploration. NASA's Science Mission Directorate plans to develop priority science missions that deliver science that is vital, compelling and urgent. This paper will discuss the theme of the Goddard Memorial Symposium that science plays a key role in exploration. It will summarize the key scientific questions and some of the space and Earth science missions proposed to answer them, including the Mars and Lunar Exploration Programs, the Beyond Einstein and Navigator Programs, and the Earth-Sun System missions. It will also discuss some of the key technologies that will enable these missions, including the latest in instruments and sensors, large space optical system technologies and optical communications, and briefly discuss developments and achievements since the Symposium. Throughout history, humans have made the biggest scientific discoveries by visiting unknown territories; by going to the Moon and other planets and by seeking out habitable words, NASA is continuing humanity's quest for scientific knowledge.

Pfarr, Barbara↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Are You In or Out: the Influence of Sea Ice Drift on Sea Ice Survivability

The state of Arctic sea ice influences aspects of many global systems including ecosystems, economies, geopolitics, and climate. And, it is in severe decline. Numerous studies have considered the factors that influence Arctic sea ice decline using monthly mean or gridded data. However, these methods struggle to cleanly separate the influences on sea ice melt because the sea ice cover is always moving; thus, different sea ice floes and sea ice regimes constitute the monthly average sea ice state within the Eulerian frame. This study uses a LaGrangian sea ice parcel tracking satellite database to investigate the factors that influence sea ice parcel survivability. The concept of sea ice survivability is defined as the likelihood that a sea ice parcel will last through the summer melt season. Survivability can be stratified in many ways to analyze how it changes as a function of sea ice regime, region, and sea ice characteristics. How is the survivability of first year (FY) and multi-year (MY) ice classes influenced by sea ice motion? This is the central question addressed in this presentation. Specifically, this analysis determines sea ice survivability as a function of distance traveled by sea ice parcels and compares the survivability statistics for sea ice parcels that stay in their starting region versus those that leave their starting region. The preliminary results indicate that the influence of sea ice movement on survivability depends strongly on which region the sea ice resides in at the beginning of the growth season. Lastly, we find substantial inter-annual variability in the regional distribution of sea ice survivability that seems to be strongly linked to sea ice parcel drift between regions of the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, we use these results to discuss the potential contribution of changes in sea ice motion on the observed slowdown in Arctic sea ice extent loss.

Patrick C Taylor↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Precipitation Means and Variations with the New Version of GPCP

Knowledge of global precipitation means, patterns and variations is essential for understanding the global water cycle. The observation-based global analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has been a key input to many such studies, including those related to means of the global (and regional) water and energy cycles. A new version (Version 3.1) of the GPCP monthly analysis is now available (1983-2019), with finer spatial resolution (0.5º latitude/longitude), updated satellite algorithms, latest gauge analysis over land from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC), and with ocean climatologies adjusted using information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission and CloudSat. The presentation will give key findings from the new analysis, compare with the previous version, link to studies of the water cycle and compare to CMIP6 climate model results. The GPCP Monthly V3.1 analysis uses a Tropical Composite Climatology (TCC) using 22 years (1998-2019) of TRMM and GPM-based surface precipitation estimates from passive microwave, radar and combined passive microwave and radar observations to adjust the long-term mean values in the tropics over ocean. At higher latitudes over ocean climatological values of merged CloudSat and GPM combined passive microwave and radar surface precipitation estimates are used. The result of the new algorithms and procedures is an ocean mean value 60º N to 60º S of 3.2 mm/d, an increase of 7% from the older V2.3. Over land the gauge analysis (from GPCC in Germany), combined with satellite estimates results in a small decrease (~ 0.5%) from the previous version, giving a total global precipitation mean of 2.81 mm/d for V3.1, an increase of 4.5%. Variations from inter-annual to trend scales over most of the ocean are driven by the Colorado State University (CSU) Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm applied to SSMI/SSMIS satellite data. The new GPCP version retains a near zero trend of global precipitation, with significant positive trends in the deep tropics along the Pacific ITCZ and elsewhere, countered by middle latitude decreases, very similar to the previous version of the GPCP Monthly analysis. The pattern of trends is similar to that of AMIP climate model results, driven by observed SSTs for the period in question, but very different from results for “free-running” CMIP historical ensembles, likely due in part to the relatively short comparison period and effects of inter-decadal variations in the GPCP and AMIP results that are not in the “history” models. Interannual variations are also nearly the same in the new version, but with finer detail, although ENSO variations over the ocean have slightly larger amplitude than before, an effect likely related to the change in ocean satellite algorithm used in Version 3. For precipitation intensity (percentiles) at the monthly scale, especially in the tropics, GPCP shows a positive trend for the upper one third of the percentiles (Pct ≥ 70th) and a much weaker positive trend for the lowest percentiles (Pct ≤ 10th), while negative trends appear for the middle one-half percentiles (20th-65th). AMIP results agree with those from the GPCP in terms of the sign of the changes/trends for high and intermediate percentiles. The CMIP historical results also agree in the sign of the trends, but the trends are weaker. Comparisons with other types of CMIP historical simulations including the GHG-only, aerosol-only, and nature-only runs suggest that the observed changes/trends in precipitation amount and intensity during the GPCP period are dominated by a combination of the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic GHG-related surface warming.

Robert Adler↗
NASA NTRS1992

Observed changes in limb clouds immediately prior to the onset of planet-encircling dust storms

Of the several size and nomenclature groupings of Martian dust storms, it is the plane-encircling or truly runaway dust storms that are of most concern to both the theoreticians and mission planners. Once believed to be regularly seasonal, it is now known that they are not annual occurrences and that the few we know about occurred within at least one-third of Mars' seasonal cycle. We cannot confirm that any were observed before 1956, and not one has been observed since 1982 (the classification of that event as 'encircling' is an interpretation of observation from a single point on the planet's surface). If these storms occur in cycles, we do not know the lengths or causes of the cycles. Regional and local dust storms occur more frequently and throughout the Martian year, but the underlying question is how do some become runaways, encircling the planet, while the others die out, usually within a few days. An investigation of this topic is presented.

Martin, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Quantifying the Amount of Ice in Cold Tropical Cirrus Clouds

How much ice is there in the Tropical Tropopause layer, globally? How does one begin to answer that question? Clouds are currently the largest source of uncertainty in climate models, and the ice water content (IWC) of cold cirrus clouds is needed to understand the total water and radiation budgets of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite, originally a "pathfinder" mission only expected to last for three years, has now been operational for more than eight years. Lidar data from CALIPSO can provide information about how IWC is vertically distributed in the UT/LS, and about inter-annual variability and seasonal changes in cloud ice. However, cloud IWC is difficult to measure accurately with either remote or in situ instruments because IWC from cold cirrus clouds is derived from the particle cross-sectional area or visible extinction coefficient. Assumptions must be made about the relationship between the area, volume and density of ice particles with various crystal habits. Recently there have been numerous aircraft field campaigns providing detailed information about cirrus ice water content from cloud probes. This presentation evaluates the assumptions made when creating the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) global IWC data set, using recently reanalyzed aircraft particle probe measurements of very cold, thin TTL cirrus from the 2006 CR-AVE.

Avery, Melody A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Analysis of the financial factors governing the profitability of lunar helium-3

Financial factors influencing the profitability of the mining and utilization of lunar helium-3 are examined. The analysis addressed the following questions: (1) which financial factors have the greatest leverage on the profitability of He-3; (2) over what range can these factors be varied to keep the He-3 option profitable; and (3) what ultimate effect could this energy source have on the price of electricity for U.S. consumers. Two complementary methods of analysis were used in the assessment: rate of return on incremental investment required and reduction revenue requirements (total cost to customers) achieved. Some of the factors addressed include energy demand, power generation costs with and without fusion, profitability for D-He(3) fusion, annual capital and operating costs, launch mass and costs, He-3 price, and government funding. Specific conclusions are made with respect to each of the companies considered: utilities, lunar mining company, and integrated energy company.

Kulcinski, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Reconstruction of Global Hydroclimate and Dynamical Variables Over the Common Era

Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past and in climate change projections. These uncertainties are due, in part, to the lack of long-term, spatially resolved hydroclimate reconstructions and information on the underlying physical drivers for many regions. Here we present the first global reconstructions of hydroclimate and associated climate dynamical variables over the past two thousand years. We use a data assimilation approach tailored to reconstruct hydroclimate that optimally combines 2,978 paleoclimate proxy-data time series with the physical constraints of an atmosphere?ocean climate model. The global reconstructions are annually or seasonally resolved and include two spatiotemporal drought indices, near-surface air temperature, an index of North Atlantic variability, the location of the intertropical convergence zone, and monthly Nino indices. This database, called the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), will provide a critical new platform for investigating the causes of past climate variability and extremes, while informing interpretations of future hydroclimate projections.

Natural hazards↗