Results for “association prediction” — Page 4

NASA NTRS1998

Probabilistic and Other Neural Nets in Multi-Hole Probe Calibration and Flow Angularity Pattern Recognition

The use of probabilistic (PNN) and multilayer feed forward (MLFNN) neural networks are investigated for calibration of multi-hole pressure probes and the prediction of associated flow angularity patterns in test flow fields. Both types of networks are studied in detail for their calibration and prediction characteristics. The current formalism can be applied to any multi-hole probe, however the test results for the most commonly used five-hole Cone and Prism probe types alone are reported in this article.

Baskaran, Subbiah↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Prediction of Broadband Shock-Associated Noise Including Propagation Effects

An acoustic analogy is developed based on the Euler equations for broadband shock- associated noise (BBSAN) that directly incorporates the vector Green's function of the linearized Euler equations and a steady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solution (SRANS) as the mean flow. The vector Green's function allows the BBSAN propagation through the jet shear layer to be determined. The large-scale coherent turbulence is modeled by two-point second order velocity cross-correlations. Turbulent length and time scales are related to the turbulent kinetic energy and dissipation. An adjoint vector Green's function solver is implemented to determine the vector Green's function based on a locally parallel mean flow at streamwise locations of the SRANS solution. However, the developed acoustic analogy could easily be based on any adjoint vector Green's function solver, such as one that makes no assumptions about the mean flow. The newly developed acoustic analogy can be simplified to one that uses the Green's function associated with the Helmholtz equation, which is consistent with the formulation of Morris and Miller (AIAAJ 2010). A large number of predictions are generated using three different nozzles over a wide range of fully expanded Mach numbers and jet stagnation temperatures. These predictions are compared with experimental data from multiple jet noise labs. In addition, two models for the so-called 'fine-scale' mixing noise are included in the comparisons. Improved BBSAN predictions are obtained relative to other models that do not include the propagation effects, especially in the upstream direction of the jet.

Miller, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2010

Decadal Prediction Efforts in GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office)

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) plans to use our GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) to explore issues associated with predictability on decadal time scales and to contribute to the decadal prediction project that is part ofCMIP5. The GEOS-5 AOGCM is comprised of the GEOS-5 AGCM with the Catchment Land Surface Model, coupled to GFDL's MOM, version 4. We have assimilation systems for both the atmosphere and ocean. For our climate prediction efforts, the atmosphere will be initialized from the GEOS-5 Modem Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), available from 1979 to present at 112 resolution, and from 1948 to present at 2 resolution. The ocean assimilation is conducted within the coupled model framework, using the MERRA as a constraint for both the atmosphere and the ocean. The decadal prediction experiments will be conducted with a 1 atmosphere and a 112 ocean. Some initial results will be presented, focusing on initialization aspects of the GEOS-5 system.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Prediction of fluctuating pressure environments associated with plume-induced separated flow fields

The separated flow environment induced by underexpanded rocket plumes during boost phase of rocket vehicles has been investigated. A simple semi-empirical model for predicting the extent of separation was developed. This model offers considerable computational economy as compared to other schemes reported in the literature, and has been shown to be in good agreement with limited flight data. The unsteady pressure field in plume-induced separated regions was investigated. It was found that fluctuations differed from those for a rigid flare only at low frequencies. The major difference between plume-induced separation and flare-induced separation was shown to be an increase in shock oscillation distance for the plume case. The prediction schemes were applied to PRR shuttle launch configuration. It was found that fluctuating pressures from plume-induced separation are not as severe as for other fluctuating environments at the critical flight condition of maximum dynamic pressure.

Plotkin, K. J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

model structure uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS2002

Glass-Cockpit Pilot Subjective Ratings of Predictive Information, Collocation, and Mission Status Graphics: An Analysis and Summary of the Future Focus of Flight Deck Research Survey

NASA Langley Research Center has been researching ways to improve flight crew decision aiding for systems management. Our current investigation is how to display a wide variety of aircraft parameters in ways that will improve the flight crew's situation awareness. To accomplish this, new means are being explored that will monitor the overall health of a flight and report the current status of the aircraft and forecast impending problems to the pilots. The initial step in this research was to conduct a survey addressing how current glass-cockpit commercial pilots would value a prediction of the status of critical aircraft systems. We also addressed how this new type of data ought to be conveyed and utilized. Therefore, two other items associated with predictive information were also included in the survey. The first addressed the need for system status, alerts and procedures, and system controls to be more logically grouped together, or collocated, on the flight deck. The second idea called for the survey respondents opinions on the functionality of mission status graphics; a display methodology that groups a variety of parameters onto a single display that can instantaneously convey a complete overview of both an aircraft's system and mission health.

Bartolone, Anthony↗

NASA NTRS1984

Prediction of vortex shedding from circular and noncircular bodies in supersonic flow

An engineering prediction method and associated computer code NOZVTX to predict nose vortex shedding from circular and noncircular bodies in supersonic flow at angles of attack and roll are presented. The body is represented by either a supersonic panel method for noncircular cross sections or line sources and doublets for circular cross sections, and the lee side vortex wake is modeled by discrete vortices in crossflow planes. The three-dimensional steady flow problem is reduced to a two-dimensional, unsteady, separated flow problem for solution. Comparison of measured and predicted surface pressure distributions, flow field surveys, and aerodynamic characteristics is presented for bodies with circular and noncircular cross-sectional shapes.

Mendenhall, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Prediction of subsonic vortex shedding from forebodies with chines

An engineering prediction method and associated computer code VTXCHN to predict nose vortex shedding from circular and noncircular forebodies with sharp chine edges in subsonic flow at angles of attack and roll are presented. Axisymmetric bodies are represented by point sources and doublets, and noncircular cross sections are transformed to a circle by either analytical or numerical conformal transformations. The lee side vortex wake is modeled by discrete vortices in crossflow planes along the body; thus the three-dimensional steady flow problem is reduced to a two-dimensional, unsteady, separated flow problem for solution. Comparison of measured and predicted surface pressure distributions, flow field surveys, and aerodynamic characteristics are presented for noncircular bodies alone and forebodies with sharp chines.

Mendenhall, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Prediction of vortex shedding from forebodies with chines

An engineering prediction method and associated computer code VTXCHN to predict nose vortex shedding from circular and noncircular forebodies with sharp chines edges in subsonic flow at angles of attack and roll are presented. Axisymmetric bodies are represented by point sources and doublets, and noncircular cross sections are transformed to a circle by either analytical or numerical conformal transformations. The lee side vortex wake is modeled by discrete vortices in crossflow planes along the body; thus the three-dimensional steady flow problem is reduced to a two-dimensional, unsteady, separated flow problem for solution. Comparison of measured and predicted pressure distributions, flow field surveys, and aerodynamic characteristics are presented for noncircular bodies alone and forebodies with sharp chines.

Mendenhall, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Statistical Mechanics of Turbulent Dynamos

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Shebalin, John V.↗

NASA NTRS2014

MHD Turbulence and Magnetic Dynamos

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Shebalin, John V↗

NASA NTRS2018

Coalescence of DNA Double Strand Breaks Induced by Galactic Cosmic Radiation is Modulated by Genetics in 15 Inbred Strains of Mice

In this manuscript we address the challenges associated with the ability to predict radiation sensitivity associated with exposure to either cosmic radiation or X-rays in a population study, by monitoring DNA damage sensing protein 53BP1 forming small nuclear radiation-induced foci (RIF) as a surrogate biomarker of DNA double strand breaks (DSB). 76 primary skin fibroblasts were isolated from 10 collaborative cross strains and five reference inbred mice (C57Bl/6, BALB/CByJ, B6C3, C3H and CBA/CaJ) and exposed to three different charged nuclei of increasing LET (350 MeV/n Si, 350 MeV/n Ar and 600 MeV/n Fe) and X-ray. Our data brings strong evidence against the classic "contact-first" model where DSBs are assumed to be immobile and repaired at the lesion site. In contrast, our model suggests nearby DSBs move into single repair unit characterized by large RIF before the repair machinery kicks in. Such model has the advantage of being much more efficient molecularly but is poorly suited to deal with cosmic radiation, where energy is concentrated along the particle trajectory, inducing a large density of DSBs along each particle track. In accordance with this model, RIF quantification after X-ray exposition showed a saturated dose response for early time points post-irradiation for all strains. Similarly, the high-LET response showed that RIF number matched the number of track per cell, not the number of expected DSB per cell (1). At the temporal level, we noted that the percentage of unrepaired high-LET tracks over a 48 hour time-course increased with LET, confirming that the DNA repair process becomes more difficult as more DSB coalesce into single RIF. There was also good agreement between persistent RIF levels measured in-vitro in the primary skin cultures and survival levels of T-cells and B-cells collected in blood samples from 10 CC strains 24 hours after 0.1 Gy whole-body dose of X-ray. This suggests that persistent RIF 24 hour post-IR is a good surrogate in-vitro biomarker for in-vivo radiation toxicity. Finally, at the genomic level, large differences in repair rates between strains for high-LET allowed us to identify suggestive genetic loci associated with radiation sensitivity. Interestingly, the two highest LETs provided the most strain variation with a common locus on Chromosome 10 highly enriched for DNA repair associated genes we discussed in detail.

Radiation-Induced Foci↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Comparison of Metamodeling Techniques via Numerical Experiments

This paper presents a comparative analysis of a few metamodeling techniques using numerical experiments for the single input-single output case. These experiments enable comparing the models' predictions with the phenomenon they are aiming to describe as more data is made available. These techniques include (i) prediction intervals associated with a least squares parameter estimate, (ii) Bayesian credible intervals, (iii) Gaussian process models, and (iv) interval predictor models. Aspects being compared are computational complexity, accuracy (i.e., the degree to which the resulting prediction conforms to the actual Data Generating Mechanism), reliability (i.e., the probability that new observations will fall inside the predicted interval), sensitivity to outliers, extrapolation properties, ease of use, and asymptotic behavior. The numerical experiments describe typical application scenarios that challenge the underlying assumptions supporting most metamodeling techniques.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

NASA NTRS2019

High Velocity Impact Performance of a Dual Layer Thermal Protection System for the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle

The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) is currently planned on being released from its Micro-Meteorite/Orbital Debri (MM/OD) shielding housing about two days before the Earth entry phase. This leaves the EEV exposed to incoming MM/OD impacts, potentially damaging the heat shield and compromising its Entry, Decent, and Landing (EDL) integrity. Currently, two materials are proposed to comprise the MSR-EEV heat shield, a dual layer material Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) and Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA). PICA has been well characterized for OD class impacts, ~7km/s high mass impacts, from previous testing done in the Orion program, but hasn't under-gone extensive MM impact testing. HEEET is a rela-tively new material with minimal prior testing in re-gards to High Velocity Impacts (HVI). In order to in-form selectability of a material, it is crucial to under-stand the material performance when faced with an HVI, directly affecting mission success probability.The current measure of a Thermal Protection Sys-tem's (TPS) performance against an HVI is evaluating a thermally sized material against its derived Balistic Limit Equation (BLE). A BLE is generated empirically from multiple shots of HVI testing, and is used as a first order method in evaluating TPS's performance against the expected MM/OD environment. This method has proved useful for previous uniform densi-ty TPS materials, but has never been validated against a dual layer recession material such as HEEET. Testing in the MSR program for FY19 has a re-quirement to assess the effects of a dual layer TPS by testing various thicknesses of HEEET's Recession Layer, seen in Figure 1. From this data, BLE's will be derived for the individual thickness ratio samples, as well as the material as a whole to evaluate if a heritage form of the BLE can capture the complex physics associated with a dual layer system. Crater morpholo-gy will also be assessed with post-test Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) methods such as CT scanning to visualize if a BLE can well predict the associated pene-tration depths, since a BLE assumes full disinigration of the impacting particle and is generally only used to size a spherical crater ? disregarding any shrapenel effects from a high density impactor.To inform this analysis, expected MM environ-ments from the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and analytical equations for mass flux of incoming MM were evaluated against the notional MSR-EEV trajectory [1]. Using those dispersions, a monte-carlo was run to determine the most probable particle pa-rameters, as well as the riskiest in terms of full bondline penetration. From these probabilities, a test matrix was designed to test against bounding cases for the various parameters of the BLE: projectile density, projectile mass, projectile velocity, and the impact angle.This presentation will discuss the performance of the dual layer TPS material HEEET against a wide range of impact kinetic energies and densitites, as well as the comparison of HEEET to PICA in terms of MM/OD performance and selectability criteria.

Libben, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Prediction of the Acoustic Field Associated with Instability Wave Source Model for a Compressible Jet

This paper provides preliminary results of the study of the acoustic radiation from the source model representing spatially-growing instability waves in a round jet at high speeds. The source model is briefly discussed first followed by the analysis of the produced acoustic directivity pattern. Two integral surface techniques are discussed and compared for prediction of the jet acoustic radiation field.

Golubev, Vladimir↗

NASA NTRS2011

Facility Targeting, Protection and Mission Decision Making Using the VISAC Code

The Visual Interactive Site Analysis Code (VISAC) has been used by DTRA and several other agencies to aid in targeting facilities and to predict the associated collateral effects for the go, no go mission decision making process. VISAC integrates the three concepts of target geometric modeling, damage assessment capabilities, and an event/fault tree methodology for evaluating accident/incident consequences. It can analyze a variety of accidents/incidents at nuclear or industrial facilities, ranging from simple component sabotage to an attack with military or terrorist weapons. For nuclear facilities, VISAC predicts the facility damage, estimated downtime, amount and timing of any radionuclides released. Used in conjunction with DTRA's HPAC code, VISAC also can analyze transport and dispersion of the radionuclides, levels of contamination of the surrounding area, and the population at risk. VISAC has also been used by the NRC to aid in the development of protective measures for nuclear facilities that may be subjected to attacks by car/truck bombs.

Morris, Robert H.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Prospect of Increased Disruption to the QBO in a Changing Climate

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted during the 2019/20 Northern Hemisphere winter. We show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was similar in many respects to that seen in 2016, but initiated by horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere. The predictable signal associated with the QBO’s quasi-regular phase progression is lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if it has progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in climate model projections that disruptions to the QBO are likely to become more common in future. Consequently it is possible that in the future the QBO could be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.

James A Anstey↗

NASA NTRS2010

Predictions of Supersonic Jet Mixing and Shock-Associated Noise Compared With Measured Far-Field Data

Codes for predicting supersonic jet mixing and broadband shock-associated noise were assessed using a database containing noise measurements of a jet issuing from a convergent nozzle. Two types of codes were used to make predictions. Fast running codes containing empirical models were used to compute both the mixing noise component and the shock-associated noise component of the jet noise spectrum. One Reynolds-averaged, Navier-Stokes-based code was used to compute only the shock-associated noise. To enable the comparisons of the predicted component spectra with data, the measured total jet noise spectra were separated into mixing noise and shock-associated noise components. Comparisons were made for 1/3-octave spectra and some power spectral densities using data from jets operating at 24 conditions covering essentially 6 fully expanded Mach numbers with 4 total temperature ratios.

Dahl, Milo D.↗