Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment for the 2023 PDC Hypothetical Impact Exercise Epoch 2
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We review the major mechanisms proposed to cause extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary geological boundary following an asteroid impact. We then discuss how the proposed extinction may relate to the impact of asteroids or comets in general. We discuss the limitations of these mechanisms in terms of the spatial scale that may be affected, and the time scale over which the effects may last. Our goal is to provide relatively simple prescriptions for evaluating the importance of colliding objects having a range of energies and compositions. We also identify the many uncertainties concerning the environmental effects of impacts. We conclude that, for impact energies below about 10(exp 4) Mts (megatons of TNT equivalent) - i.e., impact frequencies less than in 6 x 10(exp 4) yr, corresponding to comets and asteroids with diameters smaller than about 400 m and 650 m, respectively - blast damage, earthquakes, and fires should be important on a scale of 10(exp 4) or 10(exp 5) km (exp 2), which corresponds to the area damaged in many natural disasters of recent history. However, tsunami could be more damaging, flooding a kilometer of coastal plane over entire ocean basins. In the energy range of 10(exp 4) to 10 (exp 5) Mts (intervals up to 3 x 10(exp 5) yr; comets and asteroids with sizes up to 800 m and 1.5 km, respectively) water vapor injections and ozone loss become significant on the global scale. In the submicrometer dust injection fraction from the pulverized target material is much higher than is presently thought to be most likely, then dust injection could be important in this energy range.
A central challenge in evaluating the threat posed by asteroids striking Earth is the large amount of uncertainty in potential asteroid properties and entry parameters, which can vary the resulting ground damage and affected population by orders of magnitude. We are using our Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate the sensitivity of asteroid impact damage to these uncertainties. To assess the risk sensitivity, we alternately fix or vary the different input parameters and compare the damage distributions produced. In this study, we consider local ground damage from blast waves or thermal radiation for impactors 50-500m in diameter. The ongoing goal of this work is to help guide future efforts in asteroid characterization and model refinement by determining which properties most significantly affect the potential risk.
Impacts between asteroid-sized objects have dominated the solar system's history and played a significant role in forming asteroid families. The New Polana family is a low-inclination and the most prominent low-albedo family within the inner Main Belt between the v6 secular resonance at ~2.0 AU and the 3:1 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter at ~2.5 AU [1]. This family formed over 2000 Myr ago and is parented by the B-type asteroid (142) Polana [1]. [2] and [3] found that primitive near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), including Hayabusa2’s asteroid target (162173) Ryugu and OSIRIS-REx’s asteroid target (101955) Bennu, are likely disrupted fragments that originated during the formation of the New Polana family. Other possible sources of primitive NEAs in the inner Main Belt include the Clarissa, Erigone, Polana, and Sulamitis, families and the collisionally evolved background asteroids outside these families [2, 4]. The age of the solar system is longer than the collisional lifetime of asteroid Bennu [5], a rubble pile asteroid with a mean diameter of 490.06 ± 0.16 m [6] and a spinning top-like shape [7]. Asteroid 142 Polana, the largest remnant of the New Polana family [1], has been spectrally (~0.5-2.5 µm) and dynamically linked to asteroid Bennu [e.g., 2]. Bennu’s spectra were measured over the wavelength range from 0.4 to 4.3 µm with OSIRIS-REx Visible and InfraRed Spectrometer (OVIRS) [8]. Here, we investigate the compositional linkage of asteroids Polana and Bennu using 3-µm Polana spectra measured at the Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF)
Although impact cratering and collisional disruption are the dominant geologic processes affecting asteroids, samples of impact melt breccias comprise less than 1 percent of ordinary chondritic material and none exist among enstatite and carbonaceous chondrite groups. Because the average collisional velocity among asteroids is sufficiently large to produce impact melts, this paucity of impact-melted material is generally believed to be a sampling bias, making it difficult to determine the evolutionary history of chondritic bodies and how impact processes may have affected the physical properties of asteroids (e.g., their structural integrity and reflectance spectra). To help address these and related issues, the first petrographic description of a new chondritic impact melt breccia sample, tentatively named Cat Mountain, is presented.
When small asteroids (∼10–200 m) enter Earth’s atmosphere they can break up before hitting the ground, releasing a considerable amount of energy in what is known as an atmospheric airburst. To date, numerous studies have examined how an asteroid’s strength, size, shape, and entry characteristics affect the breakup process; but few have assessed the effects of heterogenous internal topologies. We present a two-step high-fidelity simulation approach, which we use to model the atmospheric breakup of asteroids with realistic impact-processed internal topologies and their associated ground effects. In the first step, we model the asteroid as it is impacted to generate an “impact-processed” topology. We then map the resulting fractures (i.e., damage field) from that simulation to the initial state of an atmospheric breakup simulation. For both phases, we use the smoothed particle hydrodynamics code Spheral++. As a demonstrative example, we apply our new simulation pipeline to a Tunguska-scale impactor (50 m diameter, 20 km s −1 entry velocity, and 45° angle) in a case study comparing impact-processed and fully intact asteroids in both planar 2D and full 3D. For sufficiently strong asteroids, we find that impact processing generally causes the asteroid to break up at higher altitudes. We also observe that impact-processed asteroids break up into smaller fragments than objects with equivalent properties that have not been impact-processed.
C-class asteroids frequently exhibit reflectance spectra consistent with thermally metamor-phosed carbonaceous chondrites [1], or a mixture of phyllosilicate-rich material along with regions where they are absent [2]. One particularly important example appears to be asteroid 162173 Ryugu, the target of the Hayabusa 2 mission [1], although most spectra of Ryugu are featureless, suggesting a heterogeneous regolith [3]. Here we explore an alternative cause of dehydration of regolith of C-class asteroids - impact shock melting. Impact shock melting has been proposed to ex-plain some mineralogical characteristics of CB chondrites [4], but has rarely been considered a major process for hydrous carbonaceous chondrites [5]. Jbilet Winselwan (JW) is a very fresh CM breccia from Morocco, with intriguing characteristics. While some lithologies are typical of CM2s (Figure 1, top), other clasts show evidence of brief, though significant impact brecciation and heating. The first evidence for this came from preliminary petrographic and stable isotope studies [6,7]. We contend that highly-brecciated, partially-shocked, and dehydrated lithologies like those in JW dominate C-class asteroid regolith.
The Deep Impact Spacecraft mission was the first to boldly face the challenge of impacting the surface of a comet, 9P/Tempel 1, to investigate surface and subsurface 'pristine' materials. The Stardust mission to Comet 81P/Wild 2 brought back an exciting surprise: shocked minerals which were likely altered during the comet's lifetime. Signatures of shock in meteorites also suggest that the violent past of the solar system has left our small bodies with signatures of impacts and collisions. These results have led to the question: How have impacts affected the evolutionary path taken by comets and asteroids, and what signatures can be observed? A future planetary mission to a near-Earth asteroid is proposing to take the next steps toward understanding small bodies through impacts. The mission would combine an ESA led AIM (Asteroid Impact Mission) with a JHU/APL led DART (Double Asteroid Redirect Mission) spacecraft to rendezvous with binary near-Earth asteroid 65803 Didymus (1996 G2). DART would impact the smaller asteroid, 'Didymoon' while AIM would characterize the impact and the larger Didymus asteroid. With these missions in mind, a suite of experiments have been conducted at the Experimental Impact Laboratory (EIL) at NASA Johnson Space Center to investigate the effects that collisions may have on comets and asteroids. With the new capability of the vertical gun to cool targets in the chamber through the use of a cold jacket fed by liquid nitrogen, the effects of target temperature have been the focus of recent studies. Mg-rich forsterite and enstatite (orthopyroxene), diopside (monoclinic pyroxene) and magnesite (Mg-rich carbonate) were impacted. Target temperatures ranged from 25 deg to -100 deg, monitored by connecting thermocouples to the target container. Impacted targets were analyzed with a Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer (FTIR) and Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM). Here we present the evidence for impact-induced shock in the minerals through both spectra and TEM imaging and compare with unshocked samples.
Evidence of the collisional history of comets and asteroids has been emerging from analyses of cometary forsterite and enstatite returned from Comet Wild 2 by the Stardust mission (Keller et al.Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 72, 2008; Tomeoka et al. MAPS 43, 2008; Jacobs et al. MAPS 44, 2009). Likewise, shock metamorphism is observed in many meteoritic forsterites and enstatites (McCausland et al. AGU, 2010), suggesting similar collisional histories for asteroids. Further exploration of the effects of collisions is slated for the upcoming Asteroid Impact Mission/Double Asteroid Redirection Test (AIM/DART) mission, expected for launch in 2020. DART will impact Didymoon, the companion of the larger 65803 Didymos (1996 G2) asteroid, and AIM will use its instrumentation to characterize the impact. A suite of relevant impact experiments have been carried out in the Experimental Impact Laboratory at the NASA Johnson Space Center at velocities ranging from approx. 2.0 - 2.8 km/s and temperatures from 25 C to -100 C. Targets include a suite of minerals typically found in cometary dust and in asteroids and meteorites: Mg-rich forsterite (olivine), enstatite (orthopyroxene), diopside (clinopyroxene), magnesite (Mg-rich carbonate), and serpentine (phyllosilicate). Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM) imaging indicates evidence of shock similar to that seen in forsterite and enstatite from Comet Wild 2. Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectroscopy will also be used for comparisons with meteorite spectra. A quantitative analysis of the shock pressures required to induce planar dislocations and spectral effects with respect to wavelength will also be presented.
Earth has previously been struck with devastating force by near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and will be struck again. Telescopic search programs aim to provide advance warning of such an impact, but no techniques or systems have yet been tested for deflecting an incoming NEA. To begin addressing this problem, we have analyzed the more than 8000 currently known NEAs to identify those that offer opportunities for safe and meaningful near-term tests of the proposed kinetic impact asteroid deflection technique. In this paper we present our methodology and results, including complete mission designs for the best kinetic impactor test mission opportunities.
NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 PDC hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.
NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.