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NASA NTRS2003

Planetary Defense: Options for Deflection of Near Earth Objects

Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This document reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of Near Earth Objects (NEO’s) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are then given of an MSFC-led study, intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEO’s. An existing program, used to model the NEO threat, was extensively modified and is presented here. Details of various analytical tools, developed to evaluate the performance of proposed technologies for protection against the NEO threat, are also presented. Trajectory tools, developed to model the outbound path a vehicle would take to intercept or rendezvous with a target asteroid or comet, are described. Also, details are given of a tool that was created to model both the un-deflected inbound path of an NEO as well as the modified, post-deflection, path. The number of possible options available for protection against the NEO threat was too numerous for them to all be addressed within the study; instead, a representative selection were modeled and evaluated. The major output from this work was a novel process by which the relative effectiveness of different threat mitigation concepts can be evaluated during future, more detailed, studies. In addition, several new or modified mathematical models were developed to analyze various proposed protection systems. A summary of the major lessons learned during this study is presented, as are recommendations for future work. It is hoped that this study will serve to raise the level attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.

Planets↗
NASA NTRS2005

Near-Earth Object (NEO) Hazard Background

The fundamental problem regarding NEO hazards is that the Earth and other planets, as well as their moons, share the solar system with a vast number of small planetary bodies and orbiting debris. Objects of substantial size are typically classified as either comets or asteroids. Although the solar system is quite expansive, the planets and moons (as well as the Sun) are occasionally impacted by these objects. We live in a cosmic shooting gallery where collisions with Earth occur on a regular basis. Because the number of smaller comets and asteroids is believed to be much greater than larger objects, the frequency of impacts is significantly higher. Fortunately, the smaller objects, which are much more numerous, are usually neutralized by the Earth's protective atmosphere. It is estimated that between 1000 and 10,000 tons of debris fall to Earth each year, most of it in the form of dust particles and extremely small meteorites. With no atmosphere, the Moon's surface is continuously impacted with dust and small debris. On November 17 and 18, 1999, during the annual Leonid meteor shower, several lunar surface impacts were observed by amateur astronomers in North America. The Leonids result from the Earth's passage each year through the debris ejected from Comet Tempel-Tuttle. These annual showers provide a periodic reminder of the possibility of a much more consequential cosmic collision, and the heavily cratered lunar surface acts a constant testimony to the impact threat. The impact problem and those planetary bodies that are a threat have been discussed in great depth in a wide range of publications and books, such as The Spaceguard Survey , Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids, and Cosmic Catastrophes. This paper gives a brief overview on the background of this problem and address some limitations of ground-based surveys for detection of small and/or faint near-Earth objects.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Contemporary Hazard of Cometary Impacts

Cosmic impacts pose a continuing hazard of loss of human life and property. Significant contemporary risk is associated with projectiles in the energy range from about 10 megatons of TNT up to the size of the K/T impactor. The lower threshold for damage is defined by the atmosphere of the Earth, which effectively shields us From smaller projectiles. Up to energies of about a gigaton of TNT, the effects are local or regional for impacts on the land, or coastal for ocean impacts, which can generate large tsunamis. A greater risk is associated with still larger impacts, which are capable of causing global ecological catastrophe, possibly leading to mass mortality From starvation and epidemics. If such a impact took place anywhere on Earth during our lifetimes, we would each be in danger, independent of where the projectile struck. Statistical estimates indicate that each human on this planet runs a risk of roughly 1 in 20,000 of dying from this cause. Prudence suggests that we should be concerned about such impacts and seek ways of avoiding them or mitigating their consequences. The primary objective of any program to deal with this hazard is to determine whether or not such a near-term impact is likely. The best approach for the asteroidal component is a comprehensive telescopic survey, which can discover all Earth-crossing asteroids larger than 1 km in diameter and provide decades of warning in which to plan ways to deflect or destroy a threatening object. Long-period comets, however, pose a much greater challenge, since they cannot be discovered long in advance of a possible impact, their orbits are harder to predict, and they are significantly more difficult to deflect or destroy.

Morrison, David↗
NASA NTRS2012

Optimal Fragmentation and Dispersion of Hazardous Near-Earth Objects

The complex problem of protecting the Earth from the possibility of a catastrophic impact by a hazardous near-Earth object (NEO) has been recently reassessed in [1]. In a letter on NEOs from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to the U.S. Senate and Congress in 2010, the White House OSTP strongly recommended that NASA take the lead in conducting research activities for NEO detection, characterization, and deflection technologies. Furthermore, President Obama's new National Space Policy specifically directs NASA to "pursue capabilities, in cooperation with other departments, agencies, and commercial partners, to detect, track, catalog, and characterize NEOs to reduce the risk of harm to humans from an unexpected impact on our planet." The Planetary Defense Task Force of the NASA Advisory Council also recommended that the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) begin efforts to investigate asteroid deflection techniques. With national interest growing in the United States, the NEO threat detection and mitigation problem was recently identified as one of NASA's Space Technology Grand Challenges. An innovative solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge problem was developed through a NIAC Phase I study (9/16/11 - 9/15/12), and it will be further investigated for a NIAC Phase II study (9/10/12 - 9/9/14). Various NEO deflection technologies, including nuclear explosions, kinetic impactors, and slow-pull gravity tractors, have been proposed and examined during the past two decades. Still, there is no consensus on how to reliably deflect or disrupt hazardous NEOs in a timely manner. It is expected that the most probable mission scenarios will have a mission lead time much shorter than 10 years, so the use of nuclear explosives becomes the most feasible method for planetary defense. Direct intercept missions with a short warning time will result in arrival closing velocities of 10-30 kilometers per second with respect to the target asteroid. Given such a large arrival delta V requirement, a rendezvous mission to the target asteroid is infeasible with existing launch vehicles. Furthermore, state-of-the-art penetrating subsurface nuclear explosion technology limits the penetrator's impact velocity to less than approximately 300 meters per second because higher impact velocities prematurely destroy the nuclear fuzing mechanisms. Therefore, significant advances in hypervelocity nuclear interceptor/ penetrator technology must be achieved to enable a last-minute nuclear disruption mission with intercept velocities as high as 30 kilometers per second. Consequently, a HAIV (Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle) mission architecture (Figure 1.1), which blends a hypervelocity kinetic impactor with a subsurface nuclear explosion for optimal fragmentation and dispersion of hazardous NEOs, has been developed through a Phase I study, and it will be further developed and validated through a Phase II study.

Asteroid↗
NASA NTRS1997

Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud

The long-period comets pose a unique problem for the impact hazard problem. Because of their very long orbital] periods and generally large distances from the Sun, they cannot be surveyed and catalogued in the same manner as the near-Earth asteroids and short-period comets. They appear at random, uniformly distributed on the celestial sphere. Current technologies can detect long-period comets at distances of approx. 5 AU, giving somewhat less than a one year warning time for potential Earth impactors. The mean impact probability for a long-period comet crossing the Earth's orbit is 2.2 to 2.5 x 10(exp -9) per perihelion passage. The mean impact velocity is approximately 52 km sec-1 but the most probable impact energy is characterized by a velocity of 56 to 58 km/sec. The estimated current impact rate for cometary nuclei large enough to create 10 km diameter (or larger) craters on the Earth is between 5 x 10(exp -7) and 2.8 x 10(exp -6) per year, with a bed estimated value of 1.0 x 10(exp -6) per year. Nuclei large enough to initiate global climatic disturbances strike the Earth on average every 16 Myr. The impact frequency may be increased substantially for brief periods of time during cometary showers, initiated by major perturbations of the Oort cloud. Improved technologies are needed to detect approaching long-period comets at large heliocentric distances so as to increase the warning time for potential impactors.

Weissman, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Origin and evolution of planetary atmospheres

This report concerns several research tasks related to the origin and evolution of planetary atmospheres and the large-scale distribution of volatile elements in the Solar System. These tasks and their present status are as follows: (1) we have conducted an analysis of the volatility and condensation behavior of compounds of iron, aluminum, and phosphorus in the atmosphere of Venus in response to publish interpretations of the Soviet Venera probe XRF experiment data, to investigate the chemistry of volcanic gases, injection of volatiles by cometary and asteroidal impactors, and reactions in the troposphere; (2) we have completed and are now writing up our research on condensation-accretion modeling of the terrestrial planets; (3) we have laid the groundwork for a detailed study of the effects of water transport in the solar nebula on the bulk composition, oxidation state, and volatile content of preplanetary solids; (4) we have completed an extensive laboratory study of cryovolcanic materials in the outer solar system; (5) we have begun to study the impact erosion and shock alteration of the atmosphere of Mars resulting from cometary and asteroidal bombardment; and (6) we have developed a new Monte Carlo model of the cometary and asteroidal bombardment flux on the terrestrial planets, including all relevant chemical and physical processes associated with atmospheric entry and impact, to assess both the hazards posed by this bombardment to life on Earth and the degree of cross-correlation between the various phenomena (NO(x) production, explosive yield, crater production, iridium signature, etc.) that characterize this bombardment. The purpose of these investigations has been to contribute to the developing understanding of both the dynamics of long-term planetary atmosphere evolution and the short-term stability of planetary surface environments.

Lewis, John S.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud

The long-period comets pose a unique problem for the impact hazard problem. Because of their very long orbital period and generally large distances form the Sun, they cannot be surveyed and catalogued in the same manner as the near-Earth asteroids and short-period comets..Improved technologies are needed to detect approaching long-period comets at large heliocentric distances so as to increase the warning time for potential impactors.

long-period comets comets comet impact↗
NASA NTRS2014

Near-Earth Objects

A near-Earth object (NEO) is an asteroid or comet orbiting the Sun with a perihelion distance of less than 1.3 Astronomical Units (AU) (1 AU, an astronomical unit, is the mean distance between the Earth and the Sun, around 150 million kilometers). If the orbit of an NEO can bring it to within 0.05 AU of the Earth's orbit, and it is larger than about 120 meters, it is termed a potentially hazardous object (PHO); an object of this size is likely to survive passage through the atmosphere and cause extensive damage on impact. (The acronyms NEA and PHO are used when referring specifically to asteroids.)

NEO↗
NASA NTRS2013

Conceptual Design of a Flight Validation Mission for a Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle

Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are asteroids and comets whose orbits approach or cross Earth s orbit. NEOs have collided with our planet in the past, sometimes to devastating effect, and continue to do so today. Collisions with NEOs large enough to do significant damage to the ground are fortunately infrequent, but such events can occur at any time and we therefore need to develop and validate the techniques and technologies necessary to prevent the Earth impact of an incoming NEO. In this paper we provide background on the hazard posed to Earth by NEOs and present the results of a recent study performed by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center s Mission Design Lab (MDL) in collaboration with Iowa State University s Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) to design a flight validation mission for a Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle (HAIV) as part of a Phase 2 NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) research project. The HAIV is a two-body vehicle consisting of a leading kinetic impactor and trailing follower carrying a Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payload. The HAIV detonates the NED inside the crater in the NEO s surface created by the lead kinetic impactor portion of the vehicle, effecting a powerful subsurface detonation to disrupt the NEO. For the flight validation mission, only a simple mass proxy for the NED is carried in the HAIV. Ongoing and future research topics are discussed following the presentation of the detailed flight validation mission design results produced in the MDL.

Barbee, Brent W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prospects for Future Human Space Flight Missions to Near-Earth Asteroids

The forthcoming Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor space telescope is a foundational asset designed to complete NASA’s congressionally-mandated goal of cataloging ≥90% of NEOs ≥140 meters in size as soon as practical, and discover Earth impactors far in advance. NEO Surveyor is also critical to near-Earth asteroid (NEA) exploration because it will find suitable low-Δv NEAs for robotic and human missions, often on Earth-like orbits with long synodic periods. Such NEAs have usually not been detected until imminent Earth launch opportunities because they were not observable until close to Earth. Discovering them far enough in advance to deploy missions requires a deep-space infrared survey telescope such as NEO Surveyor. In addition to posing hazards and being scientifically important, NEAs contain resources, such as water (OH), that could be utilized off-Earth. They also offer unique opportunities for the most ambitious human voyages ever undertaken. The Apollo program forever changed humanity’s perspective by showing us Earthrise from our Moon through human eyes. Crewed missions to NEAs will forever change our perspective again by showing us Earth as a distant point of light in the heavens as seen from an asteroid by astronauts. Planetary defense endeavors to understand asteroid and comet impact risks and develop mitigation capabilities. NEA exploration is synergistic in multiple ways. NEO Surveyor will discover and help characterize Earth impactors and accessible NEAs. Heavy-lift launch is highly enabling for both human NEA missions and planetary defense. Reconnaissance missions for planetary defense can also characterize NEAs prior to crewed missions. In situ resource utilization (ISRU) systems may be applicable to deflecting or destroying hazardous NEAs. NEA characterization data critically inform planetary defense efforts and indicate NEA types suitable for human exploration or ISRU. In 2010, NASA performed the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS), creating an automated online system monitoring mission accessibility of NEAs 2 . NHATS database NEAs meet criteria that require less total mission Δv and/or round-trip mission duration than the Martian surface or even Mars orbit. There are currently 4,658 NHATS NEAs, and many rival or exceed lunar orbit/surface accessibility. Thus, NHATS NEAs could be explored by humans prior to attempting a Mars mission. Human missions to NEAs would test human-rated spacecraft systems with less cost and risk than Mars missions. Thus, human missions to NEAs are compelling in their own right while also providing prudent preparation for more demanding Mars missions. Lunar missions can offer similar opportunities, but they differ from NEA missions in important ways. Lunar missions pose less demanding psychological challenges to crew and ground staff. Earth light-time delay for communications is significantly longer during NEA missions. NEA missions are available that require more propulsion system consumables than lunar missions but less than Mars missions. In this paper, we summarize NEA accessibility for human missions, discuss motivations for such missions, survey knowledge about NEAs that informs future human missions, present exemplar mission opportunities to the currently known NHATS NEAs, and describe future work towards enabling human NEA missions.

Near-Earth asteroids↗
NASA NTRS2012

Space Weathering Investigations Enabled by NASA's Virtual Heliophysical Observatories

Structural and chemical impact of the heliospheric space environment on exposed planetary surfaces and interplanetary dust grains may be generally defined as space weathering . In the inner solar system, from the asteroid belt inwards towards the Sun, the surface regolith structures of airless bodies are primarily determined by cumulative meteoritic impacts over billions of years, but the molecular composition to meters in depth can be substantially modified by irradiation effects. Plasma ions at eV to keV energies may both erode uppermost surfaces by sputtering, and implant or locally produce exogenic material, e.g. He-3 and H2O, while more energetic ions drive molecular change through electronic ionization. Galactic cosmic ray ions and more energetic solar ions can impact chemistry to meters in depth. High energy cosmic ray interactions produce showers of secondary particles and energetic photons that present hazards for robotic and human exploration missions but also enable detection of potentially useable resources such as water ice, oxygen, and many other elements. Surface sputtering also makes ejected elemental and molecular species accessible for in-situ compositional analysis by spacecraft with ion and neutral mass spectrometers. Modeling of relative impacts for these various space weathering processes requires knowledge of the incident species-resolved ion flux spectra at plasma to cosmic ray energies and as integrated over varying time scales. Although the main drivers for investigations of these processes come from NASA's planetary science and human exploration programs, the NASA heliophysics program provides the requisite data measurement and modeling resources to enable specification of the field & plasma and energetic particle irradiation environments for application to space weather and surface weathering investigations. The Virtual Heliospheric Observatory (VHO), Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (VEPO), Lunar Solar Origins Exploration (LunaSOX), and Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) services now provide a wide range of inner heliospheric spacecraft data that can be applied to space weathering of potential exploration destinations including the Moon, asteroids, and the moons of Mars, as well to radiation hazard assessment for the spacecraft and human explorers. For example, the new VEPO service for time-averaging of multi-source ion flux spectra enables the specification of composite flux spectra from a variety of ongoing and legacy missions for applications to surface interaction modeling. Apollo to Artemis data resources of LunaSOX enable specific space weathering investigations for the Moon, while VHO more generally covers the space field and plasma environments of the inner and outer solar system from the sunward-most perihelia of the twin Helios spacecraft to the ongoing heliosheath passages of the twin Voyagers. Composite multi-source spectra from VEPO can also be applied to the continuing compilation of accumulated 1-AU fluence spectra, mostly contributed by solar wind plasma and energetic particle events, for determination of time-averaged particle compositional and kinetic energy output from the Sun and for modeling of long-term irradiation impacts on planetary surfaces.

Cooper, John F.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Maturation of the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

As described at IPPW 12 [1], NASA initiated a new research activity focused on Planetary Defense (PD) on October 1, 2014. The overarching function of the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is to provide capabilities to assess impact damage of any Near-Earth Object (NEO) that could inflict on the Earth. The activity includes four interrelated efforts: Initial Conditions (at the atmospheric entry interface); Entry Modeling (energy deposition in the atmosphere); Hazards (on the surface including winds, over pressures, thermal exposures, craters, tsunami and earthquakes) and Risk (physics-based). This paper outlines progress by ATAP and highlights achievements that are complimentary to activities of interest to the International Planetary Probe community. The ATAPs work is sponsored by NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), a part of the agency's Science Mission Directorate [1] Arnold, J. O., et. al., Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense, IPPW 12 Cologne Germany, June 15-19. 2015.

Entry and Breakup↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS2014

Uranium-lead Isotope Evidence in the Shelyabinsk LL5 Chondrite Meteorite for Ancient and Recent Thermal Events

The impact histories on chondrite parent bodies can be deduced from thermochronologic analyses of materials and isotope systems with distinct apparent closure temperatures. It is especially critical to better understand the geological histories and physical properties of potenally hazardous near-Earth asteroids. Chelyabinsk is an LL5 chondrite meteorite that was dispersed over a wide area tens of kilometers south of the town of Chelyabinsk, Russia by an explosion at an altitude of 27 km at 3:22 UT on 15 Feb 2013 [1,2]. The explosion resulted in significant damage to surrounding areas and over 1500 injuries along with meteorite fragments being spread over a wide area [1].

Lapen, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Extraction of volatiles and metals from extraterrestrial materials

Recent progress in defining the physical, orbital, and chemical properties of the Earth-crossing asteroid and comet population was integrated into an elaborate Monte Carlo model of the fluxes of bodies in the inner Solar System. This model is of use in projecting flight opportunities to as-yet undiscovered near-Earth objects and in assessing the impact hazard to life on Earth and the evolutionary consequences of impacts on the other terrestrial planets. Further progress was made in defining desirable transportation system architectures for the use of non-terrestrial volatiles and metals, including the delivery of propellants to near-Earth space for fueling of space exploration initiative (SEI) type expeditions, the construction and resupply of Solar Power Satellite constellations in various Earth orbits (including geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO) and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit (HEEO)), and retrieval of He-3 for use as a clean fusion fuel on Earth. These studies suggest a greater future role for SERC in the exploration of space energy sources to meet Earth's 21st-century energy requirements. Laboratory studies of volatilization and deposition of ferrous metal alloys demonstrated deposition of strong iron films from carbonyl chemical vapor deposition (CVD), showing the crucial role of additive gases in governing the CVD process, and pointing the way to specific experiments on extraction and deposition of ferrous metals from nonterrestrial materials.

Lewis, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development

This paper presents the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation strategy for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (< 5 years). The mitigation strategy described in this paper is intended to optimally reduce the severity and catastrophic damage of the NEO impact event, especially when we don't have sufficient warning times for non-disruptive deflection of a hazardous NEO. This paper provides an executive summary of the NIAC Phase 2 study results. Detailed technical descriptions of the study results are provided in a separate final technical report, which can be downloaded from the ADRC website (www.adrc.iastate.edu).

NEO Impact Threat Mitigation↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sutter Survey: Telescope Breakthrough Enables MicroSats to Map Accessible NEOs

There are three primary reasons why it is important for NASA to develop better ways to locate and characterize Near Earth Objects (NEOs). First, NEOs are an impact hazard to the Earth and congress has mandated that NASA find 90 percent of all the Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs) over 140 meters by the end of 2020. NASA will fail to meet this mandate due to funding limitations and the cost and technical performance of current asteroid survey approaches. The Sutter Survey will solve this problem. Second, measuring NEO population distributions will unlock the answers to critical questions dealing with the formation and evolution of the solar system. Finally, NEOs are important targets for human exploration and they represent a virtually unlimited long term resource of valuable material for radiation shielding, propellant, and life support consumables that could make NASA'splanned deep space human exploration program affordable.

Sercel, Joel C.↗