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127 Xe quantification method development and intercomparison exercise
Monitoring of the atmosphere for fission products ( 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe) is performed by various laboratories to detect nuclear explosions. Quantification of 127 Xe is not routinely performed by laboratories measuring atmospheric radioxenon because it is not a fission product. 127 Xe was recently detected by a ground-based beta-gamma air monitoring system. When measured using beta-gamma coincidence detector systems, such as those in use on the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), 127 Xe can interfere with the quantification of fission product radioxenon due to overlap of the 127 Xe beta-gamma coincidence signatures with those of fission product radioxenon. Here, this work demonstrates quantification of 127 Xe at different laboratories with different measurement techniques. Production and purification of 127 Xe was performed by neutron activation of enriched 126 Xe. The purified 127 Xe was then split between laboratories, and detection and quantification methods were developed. At Idaho National Laboratory, a quantification method involving high purity germanium detectors was devised that included self-attenuation correction. At AWE, a beta-gamma coincidence counting method, as used in support of the IMS, was modified to enable the measurement and analysis of the 127 Xe samples. Corrections were made for self-attenuation, which showed a strong xenon volume dependency, for some coincidence signatures. The gas sample activity concentration was used as the comparison metric and it showed excellent agreement between the methods.
Understanding the trade-offs of national municipal solid waste estimation methods for circular economy policy
Policies embracing circular economy concepts have taken hold in national legislation around the world. As the number of governments and organizations adopting circular economy policies increases, so does the need for accurate and timely measurement of material resource flows. Since many countries do not have access to centrally reported municipal solid waste (MSW) data, estimation and modeling are critical in evaluating circular economy policy effectiveness. The purpose of this paper is to examine three modeling approaches estimating national MSW data in the United States, including industry-based material flow analysis, waste-extended input-output modeling, and aggregated regional waste reporting. We establish five criteria to guide the analysis through the context of policy monitoring (data quality, flow totality, update frequency, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity) and use these criteria to analyze and score each model. We then use a literature search to identify five, internationally-implemented options for circular economy policy and determine the data and modeling components that are most helpful in evaluating policy effectiveness. Finally, we provide a crosswalk of the model scores and policy needs to inform the suitability of model selection by policy type. We found that data quality and update frequency are identified as critical components for evaluating circular economy policies within the models evaluated, and can both be fulfilled by aggregated regional waste reporting. Flow totality, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity requirements vary by both model and policy types. While none of the evaluated models satisfy the combination of requirements for any of the five policies, industry-based material flow analysis offers flow totality for extended producer responsibility, landfill bans, and recycling rate target policies that typically require it. Here, the waste-extended input-output model can provide disruption sensitivity and product granularity as needed for policies like minimum recycled content and market restrictions. Policy developers in areas where strong centralized data collection is not an option should design policy action(s) with modeling tradeoffs in mind, including the potential hybridization of modeling approaches that may provide the most accurate national MSW estimates.
Iodine effective diffusion coefficients through volcanic rock: Influence of iodine speciation and rock geochemistry
Accurate prediction of the subsurface transport of iodine species is important for the assessment of long-term nuclear waste repository performance, as well as monitoring compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, given that radioiodine decays into radioxenon. However, the transport of iodine through intact geologic media is not well understood, compromising our ability to assess risk associated with radioiodine migration. The current study's goal is to quantify the matrix diffusion of iodine species through saturated volcanic rock, with particular attention paid to the redox environment and potential speciation changes. Here, diffusion experiments were run for iodide through lithophysae-rich lava, lithophysae-poor lava, and welded tuff, whereas iodate diffusion was studied through welded tuff. Iodine transport was compared with a conservative tracer, HDO, and effective diffusion coefficients were calculated. Likely due to a combination of size and anion exclusion effects, iodine species diffused more slowly than the conservative tracer through all rock types tested. Furthermore, oxidation of iodide to iodate was observed in the lithophysae-poor lava, affecting transport. Results provide much needed data for subsurface transport models that predict radioiodine migration from underground sources, and indicate the pressing need for geochemical and redox interactions to be incorporated into these models.
Comparison of near-background concentrations of Argon-37 and Xenon-133 in the Atmosphere
Radioisotopes of noble gases xenon and argon can be important indicators of underground nuclear explosions. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) includes monitoring capabilities to identify potential nuclear explosions conducted in violation of the CTBT. This monitoring currently focuses on measurement of the xenon isotopes 133Xe, 135Xe, 131mXe and 133mXe. However, it is predicted that within 100 days of an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) 37Ar would be released to the atmosphere at higher concentrations than xenon isotopes (Haas et al. 2010) and with a higher signal to background ratio, depending on the radioxenon background levels. Therefore, inclusion of 37Ar measurement capabilities at atmospheric International Monitoring System (IMS) stations may represent an improvement in the capability to detect a nuclear explosion. At an IMS station, it could be difficult to determine what constitutes an elevated concentration as a result of an UNE without first understanding the expected range of background concentrations. This work describes our analysis of atmospheric samples for 37Ar to evaluate the range of background concentrations. Samples were collected at multiple locations, with approximately half coming from a sampler co-located with an IMS xenon monitoring station (RN75). The range of 37Ar concentrations measured in atmospheric air samples was relatively narrow; for samples considered detectable, the minimum and maximum measured concentrations were 0.56 and 2.3 mBq/m3, respectively. Comparison of 37Ar and 133Xe concentrations measured at the IMS station indicated some correlation between the measured concentrations. The results presented here demonstrate the capability to detect background concentrations of 37Ar in atmospheric air and provide a basis for potential implementation of 37Ar monitoring at IMS stations.
Modeling of fission and activation products in molten salt reactors and their potential impact on the radionuclide monitoring stations of the International Monitoring System
Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are one of six Generation IV reactor designs currently under development around the world. Because of the unique operating conditions of MSRs, which include molten fuel and the continuous removal of gaseous fission products during operation, work was performed to analyze the potential impact of emissions on the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Simulations were performed to predict the production of IMS-relevant radionuclides in four MSR designs operating under two scenarios: (1) a sealed reactor with releases only during operational shutdown, and (2) continuous reprocessing or sparging of the fuel salt. From these production estimates the radioxenon and radioiodine signatures were extracted and compared to three current reactor designs (Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), BWR, RBMK). In cases where continuous reprocessing of the fuel salt occurred, both the radioxenon and radioiodine signatures were nearly indistinguishable from a nuclear explosion. Estimates were also made of the potential emission rate of radioxenon for three reactor designs and it was found that MSRs have the potential to emit radioxenon isotopes at a rate of 10^15-8×10^16 Bq/d for 133Xe if no abatement is used. An assessment was made of activation products using a candidate fuel salt (FLiBe) mixed with corrosion products for the Thorium Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR-LF1).
Projected network performance for multiple isotopes using next-generation xenon monitoring systems
Since about 2000 (Bowyer et al., 1998), radioxenon monitoring systems have been under development and testing for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Operation of the systems since then has resulted in development of a next-generation of systems that are nearly ready for operational deployment. By 2010, the need to screen out civilian sources was well known (Auer et al., 2010; Saey, 2009), and isotopic ratio approaches were soon considered (Kalinowski et al., 2014) to identify specific sources. New generation systems are expected to improve the ability to verify the absence of nuclear tests by using isotopic ratios when multiple isotopes are detected. In this work, thousands of releases were simulated to compute the global detection probability of 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe at 39 noble gas systems in the International Monitoring System (IMS) for both current and next-generation systems. Three release scenarios are defined at 1 h, 1 d, and 10 d past a 1 kt TNT equivalent 235U explosion event. Multiple cases using from one part in a million to the complete release of the xenon isotopic activity are evaluated for each scenario. Coverage maps and global integrals comparing current and next-generation monitoring systems are presented showing that next-generation noble gas systems will create measurable improvements in the IMS. The global detection probability for 133 Xe is shown to be strong in all scenarios, but only modestly improved by next-generation equipment. However, the detection probability for 131m Xe and 133m Xe increased to about 50% in different scenarios, providing a second detectable isotope for many events. As anticipated from shorter sampling intervals, the expected number of detecting samples roughly doubled and the expected number of detecting stations rose by approximately 50% for all release scenarios. Thus, it might be anticipated that future events would consist of multiple 133 Xe detections and one or more second isotope detections. In conclusion, signals of this nature should increase detection confidence, tighten release location estimates, improve rejection of civilian signals, and lessen the impacts from individual systems being offline for maintenance or repair reasons.
Phase II testing of Xenon International on Mount Schauinsland, Germany
Station RN33 on Mount Schauinsland near Freiburg, Germany, is part of the International Monitoring System monitoring radioxenon in air ( 131m Xe, 133 Xe, 133m Xe, and 135 Xe) for verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Here, we present data from phase II testing of a new system, Xenon International at RN33, July 14th, 2021 to Jan 22nd, 2022, together with SPALAX data from the same time period. Radioxenon could be detected in 473 of 719 samples, among them many multiple isotope detections. Activity concentrations of spiked and selected environmental samples were verified by laboratory reanalysis. Finally, the sensitivity of Xenon International for radioxenons is up to one order of magnitude better for the metastable isotopes than that of the SPALAX, with a shorter sampling duration of 6 h.
Projected network performance for next generation aerosol monitoring systems
Aerosol monitoring for radioactivity is a mature and proven technology. However, by improving key specifications of aerosol monitoring equipment, more samples per day can be collected and analyzed with the same minimum detectable concentrations as current systems. This work models hypothetical releases of 140 Ba and 131 I over a range of magnitudes corresponding to the inventory produced from the fission of about 100 g to 1 kiloton TNT-equivalent of 235 U. The releases occur over an entire year to incorporate the natural variability in atmospheric transport. Sampling equipment located at the 79 locations for radionuclide stations identified in the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) for the International Monitoring System are used to determine the detections of the individual releases. Alternative collection schemes in next generation equipment that collect 2, 3, or 4 samples per day, rather than the current 1 sample per day, would result in detections in many more samples at more stations with detections for a given release level. The authors posit that next generation equipment will result in increased network resilience to outages and improved source-location capability for lower yield source releases. The application of dual-detector and coincidence measurements to these systems would significantly boost sensitivity for some isotopes and would further enhance the monitoring capability.
Radionuclide measurements of the international monitoring system
The International Monitoring System (IMS) is a unique global network of sensors, tuned to measure various phenomenology, with the common goal of detecting a nuclear explosion anywhere in the world. One component of this network collects measurements of radioactive particulates and gases (collectively known as radionuclides) present in the atmosphere; through this, compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) can be verified. The radionuclide sub-network consists of 120 sensors across 80 locations, supported by 16 measurement laboratories. All radionuclide stations make use of a form of γ-ray spectroscopy to measure radionuclides from samples; this remains largely unchanged since the network was first established 25 years ago. Advances in sampling and spectroscopy systems can yield improvements to the sensitivity of the network to detect a nuclear explosion. This paper summarises the status of the IMS radionuclide network, the current suite of technology used and reviews new technology that could enhance future iterations, potentially improving the verification power of the IMS.
Impacts of future nuclear power generation on the international monitoring system
Many countries are considering nuclear power as a means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the IAEA (IAEA, 2022) has forecasted nuclear power growth rates up to 224% of the 2021 level by 2050. Nuclear power plants release trace quantities of radioxenon, an inert gas that is also monitored under international agreements as a signature of nuclear weapons tests. To better understand how nuclear energy growth (and resulting Xe emissions) could affect this global nonproliferation architecture, we modeled daily releases of radioxenon isotopes used for nuclear explosion detection in the International Monitoring System (IMS) that is part of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty: 131m Xe, 133 Xe, 133m Xe, and 135 Xe to examine the change in the number of radioxenon detections as compared to the 2021 detection levels. If a 40-station IMS network is used, the detections of 133 Xe in 2050 would range from 82% for the low-power scenario to 195% for the high-power scenario, compared to the detections in 2021. If an 80-station IMS network is used, the detections of 133 Xe in 2050 would range from 83% of the 2021 detection rate for the low-power scenario to 209% for the high-power scenario. Essentially no detections of 131m Xe and 133m Xe are expected. The high growth scenario could lead to a six-fold increase in 135 Xe detections, but the total number of detections is still small (on the order of 1 detection per day in the entire network).
Comparison of source-location algorithms for atmospheric samplers
Numerous algorithms have been developed to determine the source characteristics for an atmospheric release, e.g., (Bieringer et al., 2017). This study compares three models that have been applied to the data collected by the International Monitoring System operated by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Preparatory Commission to estimate source event parameters. Each model uses a different approach to estimate the parameters. A deterministic model uses a possible source region (PSR) approach (Ringbom et al., 2014) that is based on the correlation between predicted and measured sample values. An unnamed model developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (herein called BAYEST) uses a Bayesian formulation (Eslinger et al., 2019; Eslinger et al., 2020; Eslinger and Schrom, 2016). The FREAR model uses a different Bayesian formulation (De Meutter and Hoffman, 2020; De Meutter et al., 2021; Pieter De Meutter, 2021). The performance of the three source-location models is evaluated with 100 synthetic release cases for the single xenon isotope, 133 Xe. The release cases resulted in detections in a fictitious network with 120 noble gas samplers. All three source-location models use the same sampling data. The two Bayesian models yield more accurate location estimates than the deterministic PSR model, with FREAR having slightly better location performance than BAYEST. Samplers with collection periods of 3, 6, 8, 12, and 24-h were used. Results from BAYEST show that location accuracy improves with each reduction in sample collection length. The BAYEST model is slightly better for estimating the start time of the release. The PSR model has about the same spread in start times as the FREAR model, but the PSR results have a better average start time. The Bayesian source-location algorithms give more accurate results than the PSR approach, and provide release magnitude estimates, while the base PSR model does not estimate the release magnitude. This investigation demonstrates that a reasonably dense sampling grid will sometimes yield poor location and time estimates regardless of the model. The poor estimates generally coincide with cases where there is a much larger distance between the release point and the first detecting sampler than the average sampler spacing.
Variation in natural attenuation rates of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in fish from streams and reservoirs in East Tennessee observed over a 35-year period
Environmental contamination due to human activities is a major concern, particularly for persistent chemicals. Within catchments, persistent chemicals linked to negative health outcomes such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have great potential to be transported, through adsorption or biological uptake, with downstream locations acting as sinks for accumulation. Here we present long-term trends in PCB bioaccumulation in fish found in lower-order tributaries on the Oak Ridge Reservation, an impacted US Department of Energy property in East Tennessee, USA, and a large reservoir system adjacent to it composed of parts of the Clinch and Tennessee Rivers. Given that the reservoir system has experienced no direct PCB mitigation activities, this record offers an opportunity to explore potential natural attenuation of PCBs within a large lotic ecosystem. Additionally, attenuation rates ranged from 0% to 8% yr -1 in minnows and sunfish at stream sites and 5.4–11.3% yr -1 in catfish at reservoir sites. These rates are comparable to findings from similar studies in other regions, suggesting a consistency in responses since the banning of PCB production in 1979. Further, results suggest that PCB sources from discharge outfalls are important locally but are not primarily responsible for sustaining PCB contamination in downstream reservoirs.
A PIPS + SrI 2 (Eu) detector for atmospheric radioxenon monitoring
The PIPS–SrI 2 (Eu) is a prototype atmospheric radioxenon detection system designed at Oregon State University in support of international efforts towards monitoring clandestine nuclear weapon testing activities. This detector aims to address some shortcomings found in currently deployed beta–gamma atmospheric radioxenon detection systems, such as lackluster energy resolution and memory effect, by employing modern detection materials and readout. The system uses a PIPSBox, a silicon-based gas cell, for electron detection, and a pair of ultrabright, D-shaped SrI 2 (Eu) scintillators coupled to silicon photomultipliers for photon detection. A custom eight-channel digital pulse processor equipped with a field programmable gate-array (FPGA) identifies electron–photon coincidences between the volumes in near real-time. Gas samples of the four radioxenon isotopes of interest were independently measured with the PIPS–SrI 2 (Eu) detection system to determine energy resolution and efficiency. Application of FPGA-based coincidence discrimination in near real-time reduced the ambient background count rate by 95.85 ± 0.04%. Using parameters from the Xenon International gas processing unit and assuming a blank sample and zero memory effect the minimum detectable concentrations (MDCs) for the isotopes were calculated to be 0.12 ± 0.03, 0.27 ± 0.05, 0.15 ± 0.02, and 1.00 ± 0.08 mBq/m 3 air for 131m Xe, 133 Xe, 133m Xe, and 135 Xe, respectively. These MDC estimates compare well with other radioxenon detection systems employed in the International Monitoring System (IMS) and indicate that the PIPS–SrI 2 (Eu) is in compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban-Treaty Organization (CTBTO) sensitivity requirement of ≤ 1 mBq/m 3 for 133 Xe.
Development and validation of a software for simulating γ-γ coincidence emission and detection probabilities
Gamma-gamma coincidence spectrometers have the potential to significantly enhance detection sensitivity for ultra-trace radionuclide measurements. The implementation of these spectrometers, however, is limited by the complexity of acquisition hardware, data processing and quantification. This work reports development of a novel radionuclide quantification software for γ-γ coincidence measurements. For any radionuclide, the software parses the Evaluated Nuclear Structure Data File (ENSDF) database, recursively simulating all possible γ-γ coincidence signatures and their respective emission and detection probabilities. Implemented using Python programming language, the software employs several strategies to boost overall computational performance. Since coincidence-based spectrometers are of notable interest in monitoring compliance for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), the software’s execution was tested for 84 CTBT-relevant radionuclides. To date, the software has been experimentally validated for 15 radionuclides using the Advanced Radionuclide Gamma spectrOmeter (ARGO) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, USA (PNNL). Notably, the software can be operated in convergence mode, whereby coincidence detection efficiency’s convergence behavior can help avoid unreliable radionuclide activity estimates. With growing number of coincidence spectrometers worldwide, this paper aims to assist the radiation metrology community in developing similar software for their system.
Nomenclature, Chemical Abstracts Service Numbers, Isomer Enumeration, Ring Strain and Stereochemistry: What Does Any of This Have to do with an International Chemical Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Treaty?
The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) is an international disarmament and non-proliferation treaty that mandates a comprehensive ban on chemical weapons. This treaty entered-into-force in 1997 and has a nearly universal membership of world states. The CWC provides definitions for what constitutes a chemical weapon and describes chemicals for which verification measures and regulatory oversight are required. These chemicals, which must be declared to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) for verification purposes, appear in three Schedules within the CWC. The schedules list specific chemical substances and families of chemicals defined by molecular structure descriptions that allow a range of specified variable groups. The text of an international treaty provides a basis for laws and regulatory requirements at international and national levels that must be enacted to comply with treaty obligations. These laws and regulations must account for the “chemistry” that is described in the treaty text, which has been negotiated and agreed upon by world governments. In this paper, we look at some of the chemicals described within the CWC and discuss how atoms and molecules, nomenclature and Chemical Abstracts Service (CAS) numbers, isomer enumeration, ring strain and stereochemistry influence the obligations of States to an international treaty. The material draws upon the authors’ experiences from an interactive “Science for Diplomats” initiative that has provided a forum for engaging with chemical disarmament decision makers to aid in their understanding of fundamental concepts in chemistry that have impact on treaty implementation. We hope this article will spark interest from chemistry students and educators in the provision of science advice for policymakers and provide policymakers with an appreciation of the complexity and importance of understanding the language of chemistry in support of a world free of chemical weapons.
Global Nuclear Explosion Discrimination Using a Convolutional Neural Network
Using P-wave seismograms, we trained a seismic source classifier using a Convolutional Neural Network. We trained for three classes: earthquake P-wave, underground nuclear explosion (UNE) P-wave, and noise. With the current absence of nuclear testing by countries that have signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, high quality seismic data from UNEs is limited. Even with limited training data, our model can accurately characterize most events recorded at regional and teleseismic distances, finding over 95% signals in the validation set. We applied the model on holdout datasets of the North Korean test explosions to evaluate the performance on unique region and station-source pairs, with promising results. Additionally, we tested on the Source Physics Experiment events to investigate the potential for chemical explosions to act as a surrogate for nuclear explosions. We anticipate that machine-learning models like our classifier system can have broad application for other seismic signals including volcanic and non-volcanic tremor, anomalous earthquakes, ice-quakes or landslide-quakes.
Lateral Variations Across the Southern San Andreas Fault Zone Revealed From Analysis of Traffic Signals at a Dense Seismic Array
Abstract We image the shallow seismic structure across the Southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF) using signals from freight trains and trucks recorded by a dense nodal array, with a linear component perpendicular to SSAF and two 2D subarrays centered on the Banning Fault and Mission Creek Fault (MCF). Particle motion analysis in the frequency band 2–5 Hz shows that the examined traffic sources can be approximated as moving single‐ or multi‐point sources that primarily induce Rayleigh waves. Using several techniques, we resolve strong lateral variations of Rayleigh wave velocities and Q ‐values across the SSAF, including 35% velocity reduction across MCF toward the northeast and strong attenuation around the two fault strands. We further resolve 10% mass density reduction and 45% shear modulus decrease across the MCF. These findings suggest that the MCF is currently the main strand of the SSAF in the area with important implications for seismic hazard assessments.