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At least 73 records · Page 4

Effect of wet tropospheric path delays on estimation of geodetic baselines in the Gulf of California using the Global Positioning System

Surface Meteorological (SM) and Water Vapor Radiometer (WVR) measurements are used to provide an independent means of calibrating the GPS signal for the wet tropospheric path delay in a study of geodetic baseline measurements in the Gulf of California using GPS in which high tropospheric water vapor content yielded wet path delays in excess of 20 cm at zenith. Residual wet delays at zenith are estimated as constants and as first-order exponentially correlated stochastic processes. Calibration with WVR data is found to yield the best repeatabilities, with improved results possible if combined carrier phase and pseudorange data are used. Although SM measurements can introduce significant errors in baseline solutions if used with a simple atmospheric model and estimation of residual zenith delays as constants, SM calibration and stochastic estimation for residual zenith wet delays may be adequate for precise estimation of GPS baselines. For dry locations, WVRs may not be required to accurately model tropospheric effects on GPS baselines.

Tralli, David M.↗

Error estimation for ORION baseline vector determination

Effects of error sources on Operational Radio Interferometry Observing Network (ORION) baseline vector determination are studied. Partial derivatives of delay observations with respect to each error source are formulated. Covariance analysis is performed to estimate the contribution of each error source to baseline vector error. System design parameters such as antenna sizes, system temperatures and provision for dual frequency operation are discussed.

Wu, S. C.↗

Estimate of background baseline and upper limit on the chiral magnetic effect in isobar collisions at $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$=200 GeV at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider

For the search of the chiral magnetic effect (CME), STAR previously presented the results from isobar collisions ($^{96}_{44}$Ru + $^{96}_{44}$Ru, $^{96}_{40}$Zr + $^{96}_{40}$Zr) obtained through a blind analysis. The ratio of results in Ru+Ru to Zr+Zr collisions for the CME-sensitive charge-dependent azimuthal correlator (Δ⁢𝛾), normalized by elliptic anisotropy (𝑣2), was observed to be close to but systematically larger than the inverse multiplicity ratio. The background baseline for the isobar ratio, 𝑌= (Δ⁢𝛾/𝑣2) Ru /(Δ⁢𝛾/𝑣2) Zr , is naively expected to be (1/𝑁) Ru /(1/𝑁) Zr ; however, genuine two- and three-particle correlations are expected to alter it. We estimate the contributions to 𝑌 from those correlations, utilizing both the isobar data and hijing simulations. After including those contributions, we arrive at a final background baseline for 𝑌, which is consistent with the isobar data. Here, we extract an upper limit for the CME fraction in the Δ⁢𝛾 measurement of approximately 10% at a 95% confidence level on in isobar collisions at $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$=200 GeV, with an expected 15% difference in their squared magnetic fields.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Centimeter repeatability of the VLBI estimates of European baselines

In the last three years, the European Geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Network has grown to a total of six fixed antennas placed in Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden, all equipped with the standard geodetic VLBI instrumentation and data recording systems. During this period of time, several experiments have been carried out using this interferometer providing data of very high quality due to the excellent sensitivity and performance of the European stations. The purpose of this paper is to study the consistency of the VLBI geodetic results on the European baselines with respect to the different degrees of freedom in the analysis procedure. Used to complete this study were both real and simulated data sets, two different software packages (OCCAM 3.0 and CALC 7.4/SOLVE), and a variety of data analysis strategies.

Rius, Antonio↗

On the geodetic applications of simultaneous range-differencing to LAGEOS

The possibility of improving the accuracy of geodetic results by use of simultaneously observed ranges to Lageos, in a differencing mode, from pairs of stations was studied. Simulation tests show that model errors can be effectively minimized by simultaneous range differencing (SRD) for a rather broad class of network satellite pass configurations. The methods of least squares approximation are compared with monomials and Chebyshev polynomials and the cubic spline interpolation. Analysis of three types of orbital biases (radial, along- and across track) shows that radial biases are the ones most efficiently minimized in the SRC mode. The degree to which the other two can be minimized depends on the type of parameters under estimation and the geometry of the problem. Sensitivity analyses of the SRD observation show that for baseline length estimations the most useful data are those collected in a direction parallel to the baseline and at a low elevation. Estimating individual baseline lengths with respect to an assumed but fixed orbit not only decreases the cost, but it further reduces the effects of model biases on the results as opposed to a network solution. Analogous results and conclusions are obtained for the estimates of the coordinates of the pole.

Pablis, E. C.↗

Ringed seal demography in a changing climate

Abstract Climate change is affecting species’ distributions and abundances worldwide. Baseline population estimates, against which future observations may be compared, are necessary if we are to detect ecological change. Arctic sea ice ecosystems are changing rapidly and we lack baseline population estimates for many ice‐associated species. Provided we can detect them, changes in Arctic marine ecosystems may be signaled by changes in indicator species such as ringed seals ( Pusa hispida ). Ringed seal monitoring has provided estimates of survival and fertility rates, but these have not been used for population‐level inference. Using matrix population models, we synthesized existing demographic parameters to obtain estimates of historical ringed seal population growth and structure in Amundsen Gulf and Prince Albert Sound, Canada. We then formalized existing hypotheses about the effects of emerging environmental stressors (i.e., earlier spring ice breakup and reduced snow depth) on ringed seal pup survival. Coupling the demographic model to ice and snow forecasts available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project resulted in projections of ringed seal population size and structure up to the year 2100. These projections showed median declines in population size ranging from 50% to 99%. Corresponding to these projected declines were substantial changes in population structure, with increasing proportions of ringed seal pups and adults and declining proportions of juveniles. We explored if currently collected, harvest‐based data could be used to detect the projected changes in population stage structure. Our model suggests that at a present sample size of 100 seals per year, the projected changes in stage structure would only be reliably detected by mid‐century, even for the most extreme climate models. This modeling process revealed inconsistencies in existing estimates of ringed seal demographic rates. Mathematical population models such as these can contribute both to understanding past population trends as well as predicting future ones, both of which are necessary if we are to detect and interpret future observations.

Reimer, Jody R.↗

Precision of vertical position estimates from very long baseline interferometry

It is found that the precision of VLBI measurements of vertical crustal motions is limited by errors in the modeling of the propagation delay through the earth's neutral atmosphere, and by errors in finding the orientation of a fixed crust coordinate system in the VLBI reference frame. The repeatability of baseline length measurements study indicates a vertical position precision of about 8 cm, averaged over 13 sites and 4.5 years of data, while the repeatability of vertical position estimates for a Richmond, FL site is found to yield a precision of about 7 cm for 42 observations made over an 11-month period. An overall precision of 8 cm for a 24-hour VLBI observing session is obtained, and the effects of earth orientation parameter errors is contingent on the distances between the VLBI sites.

Herring, T. A.↗

Geodesy by radio interferometry - Determinations of baseline vector, earth rotation, and solid earth tide parameters with the Mark I very long baseline radio interferometery system

Thirty-seven very long baseline radio interferometry experiments performed between 1972 and 1978 are analyzed and estimates of baseline vectors between six sites, five in the continental United States and one in Europe are derived. No evidence of significant changes in baseline length is found. For example, with a statistical level of confidence of approximately 85 percent, upper bounds on such changes within the United States ranged from a low of 10 mm/yr for the 850 km baseline between Westford, Massachusetts, and Green Bank, West Virginia, to a high of 90 mm/yr for the nearly 4000 km baseline between Westford and Goldstone, California. Estimates for universal time and for the x component of the position of the earth's pole are obtained. For the last 15 experiments, the only ones employing wideband receivers, the root-mean-square differences between the derived values and the corresponding ones published by the Bureau International de l'Heure are 0.0012 s and 0.018 arc sec respectively. The average value obtained for the radial Love number for the solid earth is 0.62 + or - 0.02 (estimated standard error).

Ryan, J. W.↗

Simultaneous cerebrovascular and cardiovascular responses during presyncope

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Presyncope, characterized by symptoms and signs indicative of imminent syncope, can be aborted in many situations before loss of consciousness occurs. The plasticity of cerebral autoregulation in healthy humans and its behavior during this syncopal prodrome are unclear, although systemic hemodynamic instability has been suggested as a key factor in the precipitation of syncope. Using lower body negative pressure (LBNP) to simulate central hypovolemia, we previously observed falling mean flow velocities (MFVs) with maintained mean arterial blood pressure (MABP). These findings, and recent reports suggesting increased vascular tone within the cerebral vasculature at presyncope, cannot be explained by the classic static cerebral autoregulation curve; neither can they be totally explained by a recent suggestion of a rightward shift in this curve. METHODS: Four male and five female healthy volunteers were exposed to presyncopal LBNP to evaluate their cerebrovascular and cardiovascular responses by use of continuous acquisition of MFV from the right middle cerebral artery with transcranial Doppler sonography, MABP (Finapres), and heart rate (ECG). RESULTS: At presyncope, MFV dropped on average by 27.3 +/- 14% of its baseline value (P < .05), while MABP remained at 2.0 +/- 27% above its baseline level. Estimated cerebrovascular resistance increased during LBNP. The percentage change from baseline to presyncope in MFV and MABP revealed consistent decreases in MFV before MABP. CONCLUSIONS: Increased estimated cerebrovascular resistance, falling MFV, and constant MABP are evidence of an increase in cerebral vascular tone with falling flow, suggesting a downward shift in the cerebral autoregulation curve. Cerebral vessels may have a differential sensitivity to sympathetic drive or more than one type of sympathetic innervation. Future work to induce dynamic changes in MABP during LBNP may help in assessing the plasticity of the cerebral autoregulation mechanism.

Non-NASA Center↗

Estimating crustal deformations from a combination of baseline measurements and geophysical models

Three possible estimation algorithms are presented for the monitoring of crustal deformations from a combination of repeated baseline measurements and prior deformation information. Attention is given to best linear minimum bias estimation, best linear estimation, and Bayesian estimation. The application of the deformation estimators to the maintenance of a conventional terrestrial reference system is considered. It is shown that if no prior deformation model is available, the free adjustment is the preferred algorithm. In the presence of prior information, however, it is better to use a somewhat incorrect model than to ignore it altogether. The best estimation model of the ones tested is the best linear estimation.

Bock, Y.↗

Baseload Nitrate Salt Central Receiver Power Plant Design (Final Report)

The objectives of the work were to demonstrate that a 100 MWe central receiver plant, using nitrate salt as the receiver coolant, thermal storage medium, and heat transport fluid in the steam generator, can 1) operate, at full load, for 6,400 hours each year using only solar energy, and 2) satisfy the DOE levelized energy cost goal of $0.09/kWhe (real 2009 $). To achieve these objectives the work incorporated a large range of tasks relating to many different aspects of a molten salt tower plant. The first Phase of the project focused on developing a baseline design for a Molten Salt Tower and validating areas for improvement. Tasks included a market study, receiver design, heat exchanger design, preliminary heliostat design, solar field optimization, baseline system design including PFDs and P&IDs and detailed cost estimate. The baseline plant met the initial goal of less than $0.14/kWhe, and reinforced the need to reduce costs in several key areas to reach the overall $0.09/kWhe goal. The major improvements identified from Phase I were: 1) higher temperature salt to improve cycle efficiency and reduce storage requirements, 2) an improved receiver coating to increase the efficiency of the receiver, 3) a large receiver design to maximize storage and meet the baseload hours objective, and 4) lower cost heliostat field. The second Phase of the project looked at advancing the baseline tower with the identified improvements and included key prototypes. To validate increasing the standard solar salt temperature to 600 °C a dynamic test was conducted at Sandia. The results ultimately proved the hypothesis incorrect and showed high oxide production and corrosion rates. The results lead to further testing of systems to mitigate the oxide production to be able to increase the salt temperature for a commercial plant. Foster Wheeler worked on the receiver design in both Phase I and Phase II looking at both design and lowering costs utilizing commercial fossil boiler manufacturing. The cost and design goals for the project were met with this task, but the most interesting results had to do with defining the failure modes and looking at a “shakedown analysis” of the combined creep-fatigue failure. A separate task also looked at improving the absorber coatings on the receiver tubes that would improve the efficiency of the receiver. Significant progress was made on developing a novel paint with a high absorptivity that was on par with the current Pyromark, but shows additional potential to be optimized further. Although the coating did not meet the emissivity goals, preliminary testing the new paint shows potential to be much more durable, and potential to improve the receiver efficiency through a higher average absorptivity over the lifetime. Additional coatings were also designed and modeled results meet the project goals, but were not tested. Testing for low cycle fatigue of the full length receiver tubes was designed and constructed, but is still currently undergoing testing. A novel small heliostat was developed through an extensive brainstorming and down select. The concept was then detailed further with inputs from component testing and eventually a full prototype was built and tested. This task met or exceeded the accuracy and structure goals and also beat the cost goal. This provides a significant solar field costs savings for Abengoa that will be developed further to be used in future commercial plants. Ultimately the $0.09/kWhe (real 2009 $) and 6,400 hours goals of the project were met.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Status Report

This report describes the data collection work performed for an advanced small modular reactor (AdvSMR) economics analysis activity at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The methodology development and analytical results are described in separate, stand-alone documents as listed in the references. The economics analysis effort for the AdvSMR program combines the technical and fuel cycle aspects of advanced (non-light water reactor [LWR]) reactors with the market and production aspects of SMRs. This requires the collection, analysis, and synthesis of multiple unrelated and potentially high-uncertainty data sets from a wide range of data sources. Further, the nature of both economic and nuclear technology analysis requires at least a minor attempt at prediction and prognostication, and the far-term horizon for deployment of advanced nuclear systems introduces more uncertainty. Energy market uncertainty, especially the electricity market, is the result of the integration of commodity prices, demand fluctuation, and generation competition, as easily seen in deregulated markets. Depending on current or projected values for any of these factors, the economic attractiveness of any power plant construction project can change yearly or quarterly. For long-lead construction projects such as nuclear power plants, this uncertainty generates an implied and inherent risk for potential nuclear power plant owners and operators. The uncertainty in nuclear reactor and fuel cycle costs is in some respects better understood and quantified than the energy market uncertainty. The LWR-based fuel cycle has a long commercial history to use as its basis for cost estimation, and the current activities in LWR construction provide a reliable baseline for estimates for similar efforts. However, for advanced systems, the estimates and their associated uncertainties are based on forward-looking assumptions for performance after the system has been built and has achieved commercial operation. Advanced fuel materials and fabrication costs have large uncertainties based on complexities of operation, such as contact-handled fuel fabrication versus remote handling, or commodity availability. Thus, this analytical work makes a good faith effort to quantify uncertainties and provide qualifiers, caveats, and explanations for the sources of these uncertainties. The overall result is that this work assembles the necessary information and establishes the foundation for future analyses using more precise data as nuclear technology advances.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Crustal dynamics project session 4 validation and intercomparison experiments 1979-1980 report

As part of the Crustal Dynamics Project, an experiment was performed to verify the ability of Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), Very Long Baseline interferometry (VLBI) and Doppler Satellite Positioning System (Doppler) techniques to estimate the baseline distances between several locations. The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) lasers were in operation at all five sites available to them. The ten baselines involved were analyzed using monthly orbits and various methods of selecting data. The standard deviation of the monthly SLR baseline lengths was at the 7 cm level. The GSFC VLBI (Mark III) data was obtained during three separate experiments. November 1979 at Haystack and Owens Valley, and April and July 1980 at Haystack, Owens Valley, and Fort Davis. Repeatability of the VLBI in determining baseline lengths was calculated to be at the 2 cm level. Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) VLBI (Mark II) data was acquired on the Owens Valley to Goldstone baseline on ten occasions between August 1979 and November 1980. The repeatability of these baseline length determinations was calculated to be at the 5 cm level. National Geodetic Survey (NGS) Doppler data was acquired at all five sites in January 1980. Repeatability of the Doppler determined baseline lengths results were calculated at approximately 30 cm. An intercomparison between baseline distances and associated parameters was made utilizing SLR, VLBI, and Doppler results on all available baselines. The VLBI and SLR length determinations were compared on four baselines with a resultant mean difference of -1 cm and a maximum difference of 12 cm. The SLR and Doppler length determinations were compared on ten baselines with a resultant mean difference of about 30 cm and a maximum difference of about 60 cm. The VLBI and Doppler lengths from seven baselines showed a resultant mean difference of about 30 cm and maximum difference of about 1 meter. The intercomparison of baseline orientation parameters were consistent with past analysis.

Liebrecht, P.↗

SECA Coal-Based Systems - FuelCell Energy, Inc.

The overall goal of this U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored project is the development of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cell and stack technology suitable for use in highly-efficient, economically-competitive central generation power plant facilities fueled by coal synthesis gas (syngas). This program incorporates the following supporting objectives: • Reduce SOFC-based electrical power generation system cost to $700 or less (2007 dollars) for a greater than 100 MW Integrated Gasification Fuel Cell (IGFC) power plant, exclusive of coal gasification and CO 2 separation subsystem costs. • Achieve an overall IGFC power plant efficiency of at least 50%, from coal (higher heating value or HHV) to AC power (exclusive of CO 2 compression power requirement). • Reduce the release of CO2 to the environment in an IGFC power plant to no more than 10% of the carbon in the syngas. • Increase SOFC stack reliability to achieve a design life of greater than 40,000 hours. At the inception of the project, the efforts were focused on research, design and testing of prototype planar SOFC power generators for stationary applications. FuelCell Energy, Inc. successfully completed the initial stage of the project by meeting the program metrics, culminating in delivery and testing of a 3 kW system at National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). Subsequently, the project was re-aligned into a three phase effort with the main goal to develop SOFC technology for application in coal-fueled power plants with >90% carbon capture. Phase I of the Coal-based efforts focused on cell and stack size scale-up with concurrent enhancement of performance, life, cost, and manufacturing characteristics. Also in Phase I, design and analysis of the baseline (greater than 100 MW) power plant system—including concept identification, system definition, and cost analysis—was conducted. Phase II efforts focused on development of a ≥25 kW SOFC stack tower incorporating multiple stack building blocks of scaled-up cells, suitable for integration into a large-scale fuel cell power module. Activities in Phase II also included the development of the baseline system, factory cost estimate for the baseline plant’s power block, and conceptual design of a natural gas fueled sub-MW system to be used for testing and verification of the fuel cell stacks in a system environment. The specific objective for Phase III was the validation of the performance and robustness of stacks and scaled stack arrays suitable for use in large-scale power generation systems such as an IGFC with reliable, fail-safe operation being of paramount importance. The work culminated in the verification tests of a 60 kW SOFC stack module in a power plant facility. This final technical report summarizes the progress made during the project period. Significant progress was made in the areas of cell and stack technology development, stack module design, sub-scale module tests, Baseline Power Plant system development and Proof-of- Concept Module unit design. The development of this technology will significantly advance the nation’s energy security and independence interests while simultaneously addressing environmental concerns, including greenhouse gas emissions and water usage.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

VLBI geodesy - 2 parts-per-billion precision in length determinations for transcontinental baselines

VLBI was to make twenty-two independent measurements, between September 1984 and December 1986, of the length of the 3900-km baseline between the Mojave site in California and the Haystack/Westford site in Massachusetts. These experiments differ from the typical geodetic VLBI experiments in that a large fraction of observations is obtained at elevation angles between 4 and 10 deg. Data from these low elevation angles allow the vertical coordinate of site position, and hence the baseline length, to be estimated with greater precision. For the sixteen experiments processed thus far, the weighted root-mean-square scatter of the estimates of the baseline length is 8 mm.

Davis, J. L.↗