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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling evacuation demand during no-notice emergency events: Tour formation behavior

Disastrous events have been drastically increasing – both in frequency and destructive capacity – over the past few years. While advance-notice events have received a great deal of attention in the literature of disaster management, not much attention so far has been given to the no-notice events mainly because of the scarcity of data. As an attempt to address this critical gap, the current study proposes a disaggregate evacuation demand framework to understand evacuees’ travel behavior in case of no-notice emergency events. Here, the proposed framework comprises four main steps of evacuation decision, evacuation planning, tour formation, and activity schedule update. This article is dedicated to the introduction of the framework structure and elaboration on the tour formation step. In this step, we first estimate the total number of intermediate stops, travel time, and distance of the evacuation tours for those who decide to evacuate through a joint modeling structure and then, determine the type of each intermediate stop (if any). It is found that a broad range of factors including evacuees’ demographic profiles, built-environment attributes, and characteristics of the disastrous event plays a significant role in people’s evacuation behavior during no-notice emergency events. The findings of this study can assist responsible agencies in understanding evacuees’ complex behavior, and consequently, in devising effective strategies to alleviate economic damages and casualties resulted by such events.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2003

Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems

Some progress has been made in a continuing effort to develop mathematical models of the behaviors of multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology (e.g., systems ranging from single or a few biomolecules to many interacting higher organisms). Living systems can be characterized by nonlinear evolution of probability distributions over different possible choices of the next steps in their motions. One of the main challenges in mathematical modeling of living systems is to distinguish between random walks of purely physical origin (for instance, Brownian motions) and those of biological origin. Following a line of reasoning from prior research, it has been assumed, in the present development, that a biological random walk can be represented by a nonlinear mathematical model that represents coupled mental and motor dynamics incorporating the psychological concept of reflection or self-image. The nonlinear dynamics impart the lifelike ability to behave in ways and to exhibit patterns that depart from thermodynamic equilibrium. Reflection or self-image has traditionally been recognized as a basic element of intelligence. The nonlinear mathematical models of the present development are denoted self-supervised dynamical systems. They include (1) equations of classical dynamics, including random components caused by uncertainties in initial conditions and by Langevin forces, coupled with (2) the corresponding Liouville or Fokker-Planck equations that describe the evolutions of probability densities that represent the uncertainties. The coupling is effected by fictitious information-based forces, denoted supervising forces, composed of probability densities and functionals thereof. The equations of classical mechanics represent motor dynamics that is, dynamics in the traditional sense, signifying Newton s equations of motion. The evolution of the probability densities represents mental dynamics or self-image. Then the interaction between the physical and metal aspects of a monad is implemented by feedback from mental to motor dynamics, as represented by the aforementioned fictitious forces. This feedback is what makes the evolution of probability densities nonlinear. The deviation from linear evolution can be characterized, in a sense, as an expression of free will. It has been demonstrated that probability densities can approach prescribed attractors while exhibiting such patterns as shock waves, solitons, and chaos in probability space. The concept of self-supervised dynamical systems has been considered for application to diverse phenomena, including information-based neural networks, cooperation, competition, deception, games, and control of chaos. In addition, a formal similarity between the mathematical structures of self-supervised dynamical systems and of quantum-mechanical systems has been investigated.

Zak, Michail↗
NASA NTRS1978

An economic model of the manufacturers' aircraft production and airline earnings potential, volume 3

A behavioral explanation of the process of technological change in the U. S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries is presented. The model indicates the principal factors which influence the aircraft (airframe) manufacturers in researching, developing, constructing and promoting new aircraft technology; and the financial requirements which determine the delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk airlines. Following specification and calibration of the model, the types and numbers of new aircraft were estimated historically for each airline's fleet. Examples of possible applications of the model to forecasting an individual airline's future fleet also are provided. The functional form of the model is a composite which was derived from several preceding econometric models developed on the foundations of the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change and represents an important contribution to the improved understanding of the economic and financial requirements for aircraft selection and production. The model's primary application will be to forecast the future types and numbers of new aircraft required for each domestic airline's fleet.

Kneafsey, J. T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid Simulation Framework

HYBRID is a modeling toolset to assess the economic viability of Nuclear-Renewable Integrated Energy Systems (N-R IES). The frameworks enabling this toolset are INL’s RAVEN, its CashFlow plugin and the Modelica language. The toolset includes sample RAVEN workflows performing economic assessments. These workflows consist of: generation of stochastic time series and application of probabilistic analysis and optimization algorithms (RAVEN); a library of Modelica models representing the physical behavior of N-R IES; and the CashFlow plugin mapping physical performance to economic performance. The toolset allows assembling existing and new models such as nuclear reactors, renewable energy sources, energy storage, gas turbines, industrial processes, etc. into an N-R IES. The toolset workflows evaluate the dynamics of the N-R IES responding to stochastic conditions (electricity demand, price, etc.) and optimize the dispatch economics as well as N-R IES capacity planning.

Epiney, Aaron↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of Employee Health Services Scorecards and Dashboards for Sandia National Laboratories (SAND2020-2243 J)

The mission of Employee Health Services (EHS) at Sandia National Laboratories is to positively and efficiently impact the health of Sandia through patient-centered, cost-effective, community-connected care in support of its mission and people. We strive to continuously improve the delivery of health and wellness services. For the past few years, we have modeled our health programs around findings from the 2010 World Economics Forum (WEF): there are 8 top health risks and behaviors that drive 15 chronic conditions which account for 80% of the total health-care costs for all chronic illness worldwide. The WEF goes on to state that information and innovation are the keys to prevention, and EHS has decided to take a strong stand in both categories by utilizing health scorecards and department dashboards to visualize and share metrics with Sandia Leadership to foster improvements in employee wellness and optimize wellness offerings. Finally, these 2 types of information-sharing tools allow us to track the dollars spent and saved on our wellness programs, and show leadership where there is risk, where there is progress, and where there is need by providing current data that gives monthly, quarterly, and yearly feedback.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dishwashers in the Residential Sector: A Survey of Product Characteristics, Usage, and Consumer Preferences

Data on consumer purchasing decisions, usage, and behaviors relating to residential appliances help to inform technical and economic analyses related to the energy and water used by those appliances, including dishwashers. Existing publicly available data for dishwashers include two regularly conducted national surveys that describe dishwasher ownership and usage. The United States (US) Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Information Administration’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) records the presence of a dishwasher in the home, the numbers of times per week the dishwasher is operated, and the dishwasher age, along with household demographic characteristics. The US Census Bureau’s American Housing Survey (AHS) also records the presence of a dishwasher in the home along with household demographic characteristics.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence

A methodology has been conceived for efficient synthesis of dynamical models that simulate common-sense decision- making processes. This methodology is intended to contribute to the design of artificial-intelligence systems that could imitate human common-sense decision making or assist humans in making correct decisions in unanticipated circumstances. This methodology is a product of continuing research on mathematical models of the behaviors of single- and multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology, ranging from a single-cell organism at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the three most recent and relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO -21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO-30634), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72; and Complexity for Survival of Living Systems (NPO- 43302), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 7 (July 2009), page 62. The methodology involves the concepts reported previously, albeit viewed from a different perspective. One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. Autonomy is imparted to the decisionmaking process by feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by information stored in the internal knowledge base. Representation of the dynamical models in a parameterized form reduces the task of common-sense-based decision making to a solution of the following hetero-associated-memory problem: store a set of m predetermined stochastic processes given by their probability distributions in such a way that when presented with an unexpected change in the form of an input out of the set of M inputs, the coupled motormental dynamics converges to the corresponding one of the m pre-assigned stochastic process, and a sample of this process represents the decision.

Zak, Michail↗
DOE OSTI2026

Economic NMPC for a Reversible Solid Oxide Cell

Reversible solid oxide fuel cells (rSOCs) offer the flexibility to operate in tandem with the electric grid by switching between fuel cell and electrolysis modes based on real-time electricity prices. However, their complex, tightly coupled dynamic behavior poses significant challenges in determining optimal operating strategies. In this work, we present an economic nonlinear model predictive control (E-NMPC) framework to optimize the operation of rSOCs. The proposed E-NMPC is applied to a detailed rSOC flowsheet model that includes a utility scale rSOC module as well as balance-of-plant equipment necessary for thermal management. Our results demonstrate that in fuel cell mode, the E-NMPC strategy reduces hydrogen consumption compared to conventional set-point tracking NMPC, while maintaining the same level of electricity output. Also, in electrolysis mode, the E-NMPC yields a marginal improvement in hydrogen production. In addition, we explore the integration of a battery with the rSOC system to enhance flexibility in meeting electricity production and consumption targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage: Overcoming Challenges with Machine Learning and Cost-Benefit Analysis

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is a critical strategy for reducing CO₂ emissions and mitigating climate change. However, its widespread deployment faces numerous challenges across the capture, transport, and storage phases. These challenges include the technical complexity of predicting subsurface behaviors during CO₂ injection, ensuring long-term storage integrity, optimizing transportation networks, and balancing the economic and environmental trade-offs. Addressing these issues requires an integrated approach combining advanced subsurface modeling with system-level analyses to assess costs, risks, and benefits. This presentation provides an overview of studies conducted by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) to tackle these challenges. NETL’s efforts encompass cutting-edge research in subsurface fluid behavior machine learning predictions, alongside the development of innovative tools for system optimization and economic evaluation. By bridging technical expertise and strategic analysis, NETL aims to advance the deployment of CCUS technologies to support global decarbonization efforts. Presented at the Carnegie Mellon University CEE IESS Student Seminar October 4, 2024.

Shih, Chung Yan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiple Pathways of Influence for Tightly and Loosely Structured Organizations: Implications for Systems Resilience

Organizations play a key role in supporting various societal functions, ranging from environmental governance to the manufacturing of goods. Here, the behaviors of organization are impacted by various influences, including information, technology, authority, economic leverage, historical experiences, and external factors, such as regulations. This paper introduces a generalized framework, focused on the relative structure of an organization (tight vs. loose), that can be used to understand how different influence pathways can impact decision-making within differently structured organizations. This generalized framework is then translated into a modeling and simulation platform to support and assess implications of these structural differences in resilience to disinformation (measured by organizational behaviors of timeliness and inclusion of quality information) using a systems dynamics approach Preliminary results indicate that a tightly structured organization may be less timely at processing information but could be more resilient against using poor quality information in organizational decisions compared to a loosely structured organization. Ongoing work is underway to understand the robustness of these findings and to validate current model design activities with empirical insights.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probing oil recovery in shale nanopores with small-angle and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering

Increasing oil production from unconventional shale reservoirs is crucial to meet growing energy demands while achieving lower carbon emission than conventional crude oil. Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) has been proposed to improve hydrocarbon recovery rates through the injection of a fluid into the reservoir to facilitate residual oil release from the shale formation. However, economical and sustainable implementation of EOR requires advanced knowledge of fluid behavior in nano-sized pore spaces in shale. In this study, we utilize small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) as experimental probes to examine decane removal from a shale nano- to micro-porous matrix, utilizing methane as the injectant. The extent of decane saturation and recovery post-methane pressurization is quantified for clay-rich and carbonate-rich shale samples. A key finding is that extraction of decane by methane on depressurization is related to the methane-decane critical point. Furthermore, we found that although clay-rich shale had a much higher porosity of 5.6%, compared with 1.2% for carbonate-rich shale, decane was more easily removed from the carbonate-rich matrix, leading to similar hydrocarbon yields. These promising results demonstrate the ability of SANS and USANS to provide key insights into oil recovery from nano- to micron-sized pores in shale matrices. Combined with effects of various fractures on fluid behavior in shale, this experimental technique can be used to assess the viability of EOR injectants.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
NASA NTRS1973

Breeding monkeys for biomedical research

Captive bred rhesus monkeys show much less pathology than wild born animals. The monkeys may be bred in cages or in an outdoor compound. Cage bred animals are not psychologically normal which makes then unsuited for some types of space related research. Compound breeding provides contact between mother and infant and an opportunity for the infants to play with their peers which are important requirements to help maintain their behavioral integrity. Offspring harvested after a year in the compound appear behaviorally normal and show little histopathology. Compound breeding is also an economical method for the rapid production of young animals. The colony can double its size about every two and a half years.

Bourne, G. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

PARTITIONING AND TRANSMUTATION OF USED NUCLEAR FUEL IN SUPPORT OF GEOLOGICAL WASTE DISPOSAL

Nuclear energy is a low-carbon technology that generates bulk baseload electricity and supports long-lasting eco-friendly sustainability goals. However, it still faces challenges, such as the securing and managing of long-lived nuclear actinides and fission products—most notably the used fuel, which is considered high-level waste (HLW). Direct geological waste disposal would be the most economical option for HLW but requires highly qualified sites whose geophysical behavior will remain stable for 10,000 years. Partitioning and transmutation (P&T) of used fuel reduces radioactivity and decay heat generation, enabling efficient geological waste disposal. P&T research and development, along with the prospects of P&T techniques such as wet/dry separation and accelerator-driven systems, were reviewed to identify critical needs that must be met to foster their successful implementation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

PARTITIONING AND TRANSMUTATION OF USED NUCLEAR FUEL IN SUPPORT OF GEOLOGICAL WASTE DISPOSAL

Nuclear energy is a low-carbon technology that generates bulk baseload electricity and supports long-lasting eco-friendly sustainability goals. However, it still faces challenges, such as the securing and managing of long-lived nuclear actinides and fission products—most notably the used fuel, which is considered high-level waste (HLW). Direct geological waste disposal would be the most economical option for HLW but requires highly qualified sites whose geophysical behavior will remain stable for 10,000 years. Partitioning and transmutation (P&T) of used fuel reduces radioactivity and decay heat generation, enabling efficient geological waste disposal. P&T research and development, along with the prospects of P&T techniques such as wet/dry separation and accelerator-driven systems, were reviewed to identify critical needs that must be met to foster their successful implementation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mining and Validating Social Media Data for COVID-19–Related Human Behaviors Between January and July 2020: Infodemiology Study

Background: Health authorities can minimize the impact of an emergent infectious disease outbreak through effective and timely risk communication, which can build trust and adherence to subsequent behavioral messaging. Monitoring the psychological impacts of an outbreak, as well as public adherence to such messaging, is also important for minimizing long-term effects of an outbreak. Objective: We used social media data from Twitter to identify human behaviors relevant to COVID-19 transmission, as well as the perceived impacts of COVID-19 on individuals, as a first step toward real-time monitoring of public perceptions to inform public health communications. Methods: We developed a coding schema for 6 categories and 11 subcategories, which included both a wide number of behaviors as well codes focused on the impacts of the pandemic (eg, economic and mental health impacts). We used this to develop training data and develop supervised learning classifiers for classes with sufficient labels. Classifiers that performed adequately were applied to our remaining corpus, and temporal and geospatial trends were assessed. We compared the classified patterns to ground truth mobility data and actual COVID-19 confirmed cases to assess the signal achieved here. Results: We applied our labeling schema to approximately 7200 tweets. The worst-performing classifiers had F1 scores of only 0.18 to 0.28 when trying to identify tweets about monitoring symptoms and testing. Classifiers about social distancing, however, were much stronger, with F1 scores of 0.64 to 0.66. We applied the social distancing classifiers to over 228 million tweets. We showed temporal patterns consistent with real-world events, and we showed correlations of up to –0.5 between social distancing signals on Twitter and ground truth mobility throughout the United States. Conclusions: Behaviors discussed on Twitter are exceptionally varied. Twitter can provide useful information for parameterizing models that incorporate human behavior, as well as for informing public health communication strategies by describing awareness of and compliance with suggested behaviors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring PV Circularity by Modeling Socio-Technical Dynamics of Modules’ End-of-Life Management

The circular economy (CE) tackles environmental and resource scarcity issues by maximizing value retention in the economy. The concept implies design strategies such as reducing the use of materials or improving products’ durability and end-of-life (EOL) strategies, for example, reusing products and components and recycling materials. With an estimated 80 million tons of global cumulative EOL photovoltaic (PV) modules, applying CE principles to the PV industry could alleviate resource scarcity issues while also providing economic benefits. However, transitioning to a CE may imply changes in organizations and consumer behaviors. In this context, assessment of CE strategies may require accounting for behavioral change, a requirement that methods from complex system science such as agent-based modeling meet. Thus, this paper uses an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to study circularity in the photovoltaics supply chain. Four types of agents are represented in the ABM: PV owners, installers, recyclers, and manufacturers. Moreover, five possible EOL options – including three CE strategies – are modeled. Departing from traditional techno-economic analysis, the model includes techno-economic factors as well as social factors to model EOL management decisions. Results show that each dollar decrease in the recycling fees improves the recycling rate by roughly 1.1%. However, excluding social factors underestimates the effect that lower recycling prices have on material circularity.

agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring PV Circularity by Modeling Socio-Technical Dynamics of Modules' End-of-Life Management: Preprint

The circular economy (CE) tackles environmental and resource scarcity issues by maximizing value retention in the economy. The concept implies design strategies such as reducing the use of materials or improving products’ durability and end-of-life (EOL) strategies such as reusing products and components and recycling materials. With an estimated 80 million tons of global cumulative EOL photovoltaic (PV) modules, applying CE principles to the PV industry could alleviate resource scarcity issues while also providing economic benefits. However, transitioning to a CE may imply changes in organizations and consumer behaviors. In this context, assessment of CE strategies may require accounting for behavioral change, a requirement that methods from complex system science such as agent-based modeling meet. Thus, this paper uses an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to study circularity in the photovoltaics supply chain. Four types of agents are represented in the ABM: PV owners, installers, recyclers, and manufacturers. Moreover, five possible EOL options – including three CE strategies – are modeled. Departing from traditional techno-economic analysis, the model includes techno-economic factors as well as social factors to model EOL management decisions. Results show that each dollar decrease in the recycling fees improves the recycling rate by roughly 1.1%. However, excluding social factors underestimates the effect that lower recycling prices have on material circularity.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technical and Economic Evaluation of the First Ever Polymer Flood Field Pilot to Enhance the Recovery of Heavy Oils on Alaska's North Slope via Machine Assisted History Matching

Polymer flooding has become globally established as a potential enhanced oil recovery method for heavy oils. To determine whether this technology may be useful in developing the substantial heavy oil resources on the Alaska North Slope, a polymer flood field pilot commenced at the Milne Point Unit in August 2018. This study seeks to evaluate the results of the field pilot on a technical and economic basis. A reservoir simulation model is constructed and calibrated to predict the oil recovery performance of the pilot through machine-assisted reservoir simulation techniques. To replicate the early water breakthrough observed during waterflooding, transmissibility contrasts are introduced into the simulation model, forcing viscous fingering effects. In the ensuing polymer flood, these transmissibility contrasts are reduced to replicate the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding. Transmissibility contrasts are later reinstated to replicate fracture overextension interpreted in one of the producing wells. The calibrated simulation models produced at each stage of the history matching process are used to forecast oil recovery. These forecasts are used as input for economic analysis, incremental to waterflooding expectations. The simulation forecasts indicate that polymer flooding significantly increases the heavy oil production for this field pilot compared to waterflooding alone, yielding attractive project economics. However, meaningful variations between simulation scenarios demonstrate that a simulation model is only valid for prediction if flow behavior in the reservoir remains consistent with that observed during the history matched period. Critically, this means that a simulation model calibrated for waterflooding may not fully capture the technical and economic benefits of an enhanced oil recovery process such as polymer flooding. Subsequently, the simulation model and economic model are used in conjunction to conduct a sensitivity analysis for polymer flood design parameters, from which recommendations are provided for both the continued operation of the current field pilot and future polymer flood designs. The results demonstrate that a higher polymer concentration can be injected due to the development of fractures in the reservoir. The throughput rate should remain high without exceeding operating constraints. A calculated point-forward polymer utilization parameter demonstrates the decreasing efficiency of the polymer flood at later times in the pattern life. Future projects will benefit from starting polymer injection earlier in the pattern life. A pattern with tighter horizontal well spacing will observe a greater incremental benefit from polymer flooding.

Keith, Cody↗